Jump to content


Photo

UK Property - The former HPC addicts' thread


496 replies to this topic

#481 John Doe

John Doe

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,052 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 21 August 2010 - 08:50 PM

"For the sacrifices of a parent, a child owes no debt"

Quotation of someone far wiser than I.
"Hey - don't worry, don't be afraid, ever, because, this is just a ride..." Bill Hicks

Just as I start getting my head together, my body starts falling apart (anon).

#482 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 68,581 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 23 August 2010 - 12:03 AM

QUOTE (John Doe @ Aug 22 2010, 05:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
"For the sacrifices of a parent, a child owes no debt"
Quotation of someone far wiser than I.

"Honor be to the child that returns (some of) the favors of childhood."
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#483 romans holiday

romans holiday

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,675 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:The Southern Alps

Posted 23 August 2010 - 01:45 AM

QUOTE (John Doe @ Aug 22 2010, 05:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
"For the sacrifices of a parent, a child owes no debt"

Quotation of someone far wiser than I.

This saying seems odd.

Is it because there are different kinds of debt. Even though there might not be in a strict sense "financial debt" owed to parents, surely we are "indebted" in a moral sense.

A generation which reduced it all to finance, would probably also be a generation which wouldn't bother to reproduce after some "cost/ benefit" analysis. Maybe this is the fatal demographic flaw of developed economies, where the economic/ rational mode of life overshadows a more natural/ instinctive one.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#484 John Doe

John Doe

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,052 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 23 August 2010 - 07:44 AM

Do you mind if I ask if you guys have children?
"Hey - don't worry, don't be afraid, ever, because, this is just a ride..." Bill Hicks

Just as I start getting my head together, my body starts falling apart (anon).

#485 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 68,581 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 23 August 2010 - 08:35 AM

QUOTE (John Doe @ Aug 23 2010, 03:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Do you mind if I ask if you guys have children?

I have parents, and feel an obligation towards them

And also a strong willingness to help my siblings, if they are in need.
My partner feels the same way towards her family, which is one reason we get along.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#486 romans holiday

romans holiday

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,675 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:The Southern Alps

Posted 23 August 2010 - 08:37 AM

QUOTE (John Doe @ Aug 23 2010, 04:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Do you mind if I ask if you guys have children?

No children. Yet to meet my..... "fate". When I consider finance, looking out for parents/ siblings/ family plays a big part of it, which I guess is the motivation of most.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#487 John Doe

John Doe

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,052 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 24 August 2010 - 09:38 AM

Please don't take this the wrong way, but that's what I thought.

The little menaces really change the way you think about things.
"Hey - don't worry, don't be afraid, ever, because, this is just a ride..." Bill Hicks

Just as I start getting my head together, my body starts falling apart (anon).

#488 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 68,581 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 24 August 2010 - 10:47 AM

QUOTE (John Doe @ Aug 24 2010, 05:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Please don't take this the wrong way, but that's what I thought.
The little menaces really change the way you think about things.

Sure.
But my comment is more about the relationship of children to parents, not parents to children.
I do have parents, and so I feel well-qualified to comment on that.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#489 John Doe

John Doe

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,052 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 24 August 2010 - 01:53 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Aug 24 2010, 11:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Sure.
But my comment is more about the relationship of children to parents, not parents to children.
I do have parents, and so I feel well-qualified to comment on that.

Yes, but thatís sort of my point.

I felt some obligation towards my parents (after I grew up that is), but when your own child arrives, you start to think differently.

It's all about the new generation, not the old. It was their job to bring you up, and now it's your turn to bring up your children.

Of course you still want to see you parents Ok, but heh, it's not your first responsibility. Your first responsibility is to your children, as it should be. After all, you brought them into this world.

Besides, I would hate to rely on my children when I'm older (and I know my father feels the same).

It could be that, unlike China or other countries, due to the welfare system here in UK, no pensioner is going hungry or cold* so the responsibility is somewhat lightened?

*(Except in very rare extreme cases)


"Hey - don't worry, don't be afraid, ever, because, this is just a ride..." Bill Hicks

Just as I start getting my head together, my body starts falling apart (anon).

#490 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 68,581 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 24 August 2010 - 02:56 PM

QUOTE (John Doe @ Aug 24 2010, 10:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Yes, but thatís sort of my point.
I felt some obligation towards my parents (after I grew up that is), but when your own child arrives, you start to think differently.
It's all about the new generation, not the old. It was their job to bring you up, and now it's your turn to bring up your children.

I suppose it would be hard to be a good parent w/o that attitude.
But it does not mean that today's young have no moral obligation towards their parents.
Certainly, Chinese culture recognises a clear obligation, and that makes for closer family ties,
and less reliance on the state
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#491 John Doe

John Doe

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,052 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 24 August 2010 - 06:08 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Aug 24 2010, 03:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I suppose it would be hard to be a good parent w/o that attitude.
But it does not mean that today's young have no moral obligation towards their parents.
Certainly, Chinese culture recognises a clear obligation, and that makes for closer family ties,
and less reliance on the state


I agree, but not all cultures look at it that way. I remember watching an old film about eskimos.

When the grandmother became so old that her teeth could no longer chew the animal skins (to soften leather?) and she was of no more use to the family, she was left out in the snow.

She just sat there, with full acceptance and no complaints, until the cold took her.

Very efficient wink.gif
"Hey - don't worry, don't be afraid, ever, because, this is just a ride..." Bill Hicks

Just as I start getting my head together, my body starts falling apart (anon).

#492 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 68,581 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 26 July 2011 - 05:47 AM

Bumping this, to move it to the GPC section

Some interesting history here
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#493 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 68,581 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 26 July 2011 - 06:20 AM

CRASH CRUISE SPEED - A concept introduced by yours truly to suggest how a crash would really look

Here's how it subsequently happened after the 2006-US and 2007-UK peaks:

"Crash Cruise speed" in the UK ................................... : "Crash Cruise speed" in the US .............
Posted Image Posted Image
UK prices are -20.5% from peak (Nationwide) ............ : US prices are -28.0% (Case-Schiller) /Feb.2009
Pds.147,746 / Pds.186,044 = -20.5% in 17 mos........ : $150.66 / $206.52 = -28.0% in 30 mos.

Many of those who bought during the "Winner's Curse period" (the last two years or so leading into the peak) are now into negative equity. Defaults are rising, and bank balance sheets are being undermined.


Despite the efforts of the HPC mods to stamp out all forms of subtle thought,
The Concept is still alive and well on HPC, and has resurfaced this month:

(1)
ElPapasito
Posted 21 July 2011 - 01:37 PM

In response to: SarahBell's :
Reckon they're going to let it all fall down within 6 months tops.
(Let = ok so they won't have a choice)
So will house prices fall siginicantly by then or will it be like driving off the edge of a cliff rather than down a steep hill?

UNQUOTE

Like last time, house price crash cruise speed of 1.5% down per month and after 10 months - BOOM - banks meltdown triggered

/see: http://www.housepric...howtopic=166896

(2)
Si1
Posted 06 July 2011 - 07:32 AM

crudely citing myself and inferring others' statements from 2009 and 2010, we said crash cruise speed could be as low as 1.5% per year nominal if it took until 2020, or as high as 5.5% if it took to c. 2015, this is my minimum estimate and Extradry Martini's maximum

and we are on roughly 3% p.a. crash cruise speed as at 2011, right now, our estimates were pretty good heh so far!

/see: http://www.housepric...howtopic=166211
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#494 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 68,581 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 08 October 2011 - 04:12 PM

JUST ONE YEAR AGO, I was banned on HPC.
Since then...

COMPARISON == : ( HPC ) / ( GEI )
Alexa Traffic Rank : 21,725 : 296,911
Traffic Rank in GB : ==753 : =30,077
Sites Linking In .. : ==318 : === 53

HPC has 138 Reviews (ave. 3.5 stars) : http://www.alexa.com...icecrash.co.uk#

COMPARISON == : ( HPC ) / ( GEI )
Alexa Traffic Rank : 27,303 : 186,889
Traffic Rank in GB : ==909 : = 9,150
Sites Linking In .. : ==456 : === 83

HPC has 138 Reviews (ave. 3.5 stars)
GEI has 003 Reviews (ave. 5.0 stars)

GEI is gaining on HPC, if only slowly, as HPC fades a bit

THANKS FOR THE POSTS, everyone !
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#495 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 68,581 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 10 December 2012 - 11:01 AM

Hey, HPC Lurkers:

Why not join GEI ? :

Registering to become a New Member on GEI
New Members procedure -
========================================
Follow this link, to register:

http://www.greenener...ection=register


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#496 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 68,581 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 10 December 2012 - 02:40 PM

Old Quote:

DrBubb, on May 24 2009, 03:11 AM, said:

I reckon that prices will fall from 35-50% from their Dead Cat Bounce high in the next few weeks,
to the Low in 2012-13.

== UNQUOTE ===
/see: http://www.housepric...ic=115350&st=30
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#497 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 68,581 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 11 December 2012 - 10:18 AM

Old Quote: from End May 2009

"I reckon that prices will fall from 35-50% from their Dead Cat Bounce high in the next few weeks,
to the Low in 2012-13."

== UNQUOTE ===
/see: http://www.housepric...ic=115350&st=30

How accurate? What happened from June 2009 ?


Answers :
========

+ Hali-Wide had two major peaks : £192,490 (Aug. 2007), and then fell by 20.3% into a into Mar.2009 Low (£153,477). The second peak was £169,287 (Apr. 2010), and it has since fallen by just 4.3% into its recent low of £161,986 (Oct. 2012.) That is 15.8% below the cycle peak back in Aug. 2007. Further falls still look possible into 2013 and beyond.

+ The two peaks for the Rest of The UK were: £183,496 (Aug. 2007), and £160,582 (May 2010). The first low of £145,334 (Feb. 2009), was 20.8% below the 2007 Cycle peak. And the most recent low of £147,163 (Nov. 2012), was 19.8% below the Cycle peak of 2007. A fresh lower low looks very possible this winter and beyond.

+ Greater London prices, per Rightmove, are a very different story indeed. The Nov. 2012 price was £483,709, 17.2% above the Nov. 2007 peak of £412,731. From that first peak, prices fell just 8.1% to £379,162, over 9 months, before beginning their long 4 year plus climb to last month's peak.

+ Relative prices have reached unprecedented levels. Greater London is now 298% of HaliWide prices and 329% of Rest-of-UK prices. The Nov. 2007 multiples were 218% and 231% respectively. Ask yourself, why have London prices reached these insane multiples. and what can you do to take advantage of the yawning gap?
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users