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DrBubb's Diary - Where to find latest Month


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 05:29 AM

- Link to here :: http://tinyurl.com/drB-Diary
I will add a new Link below, as each new Month Rolls in:

JUN 2010: http://tinyurl.com/drB-Jun10
MAY 2010: http://tinyurl.com/drB-May10

HITS, Historical record
====
July 10 : xxx posts / x,xxx hits : A July bounce?, to be follow by a big slide into August?
Jun.10 : 348 posts / 14,549 hits : A June slide in stocks & oil, could drag Gold lower
May.10 : 259 posts / 12,785 hits : The gap between Gold & stocks is closing, & may reverse
Apr.10 : 110 posts / 7,133 hits : Gold may be set for another run; stocks vulnerable
Mar.10 : 176 posts / 9,930 hits : Ready now / or very soon for a bigger fall?
Feb.10 : 171 posts / 7,967 hits : Chopping around, to "build cause" for a bigger fall? (started late)
Jan.10 : 256 posts / 12,737 hits : Tired market, may rollover after initial blip up
Dec.09 : 234 posts / 10,406 hits : Gold has outrun stocks, can rallies survive into '10?
Nov.09 : 546 posts / 20,407 hits : Bigger slides in Stocks and Gold dead ahead?
Oct.09 : 452 posts / 18,383 hits : Deflationary downswing? But only if the USD rallies
Sep.09 : 251 posts / 11,772 hits : The Deflationary downswing has started, look out below
Aug.09 : 228 posts / 11,980 hits : Wonderful time to short stocks? And Buy Gold soon?
July.09 : 187 posts // 9,605 hits : Starting with more cash, + more shorts thru options
Jun.09 : 143 posts // 6,553 hits : Starting with high cash levels, + shorts thru options
May.09 : 140 posts / 6,452 hits : Starting with high cash levels, + shorts thru options
Apr.09 : 116 posts / 5,216 hits : Starting with mucho cash, awaiting another up move
Mar.09 : 278 posts / 9,175 hits : Rallying back from Feb. / DB Portfolio Up 30%+
The Twitter Link is: [url="http://twitter.com/DrBubb"]http://twitter.com/DrBubb (which links back to this thread)
Other Twitter Link :: http://twitter.com/GEItraders


The link at the top of the page, under the GEI logo was not always getting updated on a timely basis,
and so I thoght I should have a thread, where I can update in one step. This is it.

Meta-Comments or suggestions for "DrBubb's Diary" and making it more widely available are welcome here


Example:
Why do I not pin the DrBubb's Diary thread ?

The reason is: there are too many threads pinned already. And I do not want to kick out any of the other threads by valued GEI-ers.
They all seem to have a following. Also, the downwards descent of the DB Diary thread reminds me to do regular postings.

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 02 August 2009 - 09:36 AM

MANIC SWING Indicies
## : Daily----------------------------- : Weekly-----------------------------
#1 : http://tinyurl.com/MSI1-d3y : http://tinyurl.com/msi1week
#2 : http://tinyurl.com/MSI2-d3y : http://tinyurl.com/msi2week
#3 : http://tinyurl.com/MSI3-d3y : http://tinyurl.com/msi3week
#4 : http://tinyurl.com/MSI4-d3y : http://tinyurl.com/msi4week
#? : http://tinyurl.com/MSI5-d3y

#5?: rough link : http://stockcharts.c...eb?...3]&pref=G
Here's a new Ratio that I have on trial. It is meant to find TURNS in Stocks
$SPX:DXDDX ... update :
NEW RATIO - SPX-to-Reverse.Dollar.etf (this is geared -2.5x to give similar volatility)



This one has signalled all the important Turns, and we may be at another one now
BIG TROUBLE for stocks, if the Dollar continues to rally.
I like that chart above, and may want to call it MSI#5 ::
update: http://stockcharts.c...eb?...3]&pref=G
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

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Posted 19 September 2009 - 06:50 AM

OTHER LINKS - that I use regularly ...

Larry Pesavento / Ken Shreve : http://www.tfnn.com/...ew_archives.php / http://tinyurl.com/TFNNxLP

From http://www.TFNN.com : KBIA Radio : MSN video :

Kunstler Cast : http://kunstler.com
KMO Podcast.. : http://c-realmpodcast.podomatic.com/

Pre-Mkt Trade : http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
Tony Caldaro. : http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
All Allan Blog. : http://allallan.blogspot.com/
PlanetYelnick. : http://yelnick.typepad.com/
McLaren Rep't : http://mclarenreport.net.au/articles/
Carl Futia Blog : http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
Tischendorf --- : http://www.tischendorf.com/
Giblets Ewaves : http://gi61et.blogspot.com/
RedDragonLeo : http://reddragonleo.com/
MexicoMike Ca : http://www.mexicomik...ewforum.php?f=2
Steven's Blog : http://steven737.typepad.com/
Marty Chenard : http://www.stocktiming.com/
Ron Walker... : http://www.youtube.c...er/chartpattern : site : charts
StockCharts... : http://tinyurl.com/Pubcharts
TomBulkowski : http://thepatternsite.com/Blog.html
BAM Twitsites : BAM investor : BAM trader
Ichimoku Cht : http://www.ichimokucharts.com/
AlphaGlob.Inv : http://gicharts.blogspot.com/
TandC Board. : http://www.timeandcycles.com/board

== ==
MESSAGE, latest:
My Own Elliott Wave count:
http://img27.imagesh...7/3888/aa1d.gif

I am using the 13d/10d.MA's to confirm trends:

+ In wave.a, the 10d. crossed below the 13d. briefly to confirm wave.iii was done,
+ After wave.iv, prices shot up for a last gasp into a wave.v top,
+ The next crossover of the 10d.MA below 13d was in wave.b
+ The 10d. crossed below the 13d. briefly (again) to confirm c's wave.iii was done,
+ After wave.iv, prices shot up for a last gasp into a wave c's v top,

Wave c finished right at the top of a gap, going back to October 3-6th, 2008

see post#326: http://tinyurl.com/oct23wave

Long Term Dow ... orig, chart : chart.B

/source: http://caldaroew.spa...#33;61248.entry
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 09 October 2009 - 12:18 AM

There has been a frustrating stock market in recent days,
but many believe the Bulls are now "all long, and confident:, which would set up a big drop
Here's what Elliott Wave fractal expert Hank Wernicki has said in comments on Yelnick's thread:
1/ 100 % Short / Market is going to Tumble
Stop intraday high for the SPX ! - Hank
2/
Fractal was cofirmed at the close !/ We Tumble starting tomorrow ! - Hank
== == ==
UPDATED 10/23:

My Own Elliott Wave count - in edit from 10/23 :: updated chart



I am using the 13d/10d.MA's to confirm trends:

+ In wave.a, the 10d. crossed below the 13d. briefly to confirm wave.iii was done,
+ After wave.iv, prices shot up for a last gasp into a wave.v top,
+ The next crossover of the 10d.MA below 13d was in wave.b
+ The 10d. crossed below the 13d. briefly (again) to confirm c's wave.iii was done,
+ After wave.iv, prices shot up for a last gasp into a wave c's v top,

Wave c finished right at the top of a gap, going back to October 3-6th, 2008
== == ==

The McClennan Oscillator and Summation Index ... update / ...is breaking down


Summation Index is "the Hero... telling us that distribution continues to take place" - Ron Walker

McClellan Summation Index
The McClellan Summation Index is a popular market breadth indicator that is ultimately derived from the number of advancing and declining stocks in a given market. It is derived from the McClellan Oscillator by tracking its daily accumulation or "summation". This provides a longer-term view of the McClellan concept. Many people regard it as an excellent indicator of the overall "health" of the market and the market's current trend. It was developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan and first presented in their book, Patterns for Profit (available from McClellan Financial Publications).

Calculation
There are two methods for calculating the Summation Index. The first method (the one originally used by the McClellans) simply maintains a running total of the values of the McClellan Oscillator (which is defined here). The second method uses the following formula:

Summation Index = 1000 + (10%Trend - 5%Trend) - [(10 x 10%Trend) + (20 x 5%Trend)]

where:
5%Trend = 39-day EMA of (Advancers-Decliners)
10%Trend = 19-day EMA of (Advancers-Decliners)

The McClellan Summation index generally oscillates between 0 and 2000 although it can move outside of this range during extreme or unusual market conditions. Historically, major market bottoms occur after the index falls below -1000. Readings above +1600 often indicate a major top is near. Top and bottom signals carry more significance if the index is also diverging from the associated market average. According to the McClellans, the beginning of a new bull market is signaled if the NYSE-based Summation index first moves below the -1200 level and then quickly rises above +2500.

The Summation Index is simply a longer range version of the McClellan Oscillator. Whereas the McClellan Oscillator is used for short to intermediate trading purposes, the Summation Index provides a longer range view of market breadth and is used to spot major market turning points

/more: http://stockcharts.c...llan_summation_

BULLISH PERCENTAGES / sentiment measures
BPNYA : http://stockcharts.c...eb?...3]&pref=G
BPNDX : http://stockcharts.c...eb?...3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...eb?...3]&pref=G

Sentiment Charts x X : http://www.wallstree...s/sentiment.htm
Barron's Sent-Indices : http://online.barron...ntreadings.html
I.I. Investor's Survey : http://www.investors...ce.com/x600x400 : Other chart
Investors Confidence : chart / data: http://internet.stat...toricaldata.pdf
AAII Sentiment Index : http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/
Market Gauge Charts : http://tal.marketgau...ts/ChartTOC.asp
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 deeper

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Posted 09 October 2009 - 04:33 PM

I'm following BAM Investor too, I think we"re do for a nice crash here too.

== ==

(here's another chart to watch -from DrB): UnbiasedTradingBlog



This is a picture of the weekly SPX MACD. Does it require any commentary? Actually, yes! Donít all rush for the exit just yet! As negative as this looks, we still do not have a sell signal, and Fridayís action could mark the start of the final up-phase. On Friday, the index bounced off one of the trend lines which needs to be broken in order to signal a formal end to the rally -- that, and more -- which we will discuss later.

Friday was also the ideal date for the low of the 20-wk cycle. Should that turn out to have been the case, we should expect a rally of some sort, perhaps enough to put a finishing touch on the top and to reach my longstanding projection to 1135.


#6 DrBubb

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Posted 17 October 2009 - 03:58 PM

Lines added



This suggests a TURN may be at hand.

SPX / S&P500 ... update : 5 years-M : 2yrs-M : 2ys-W

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 DrBubb

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 06:37 AM

Why US Stock investors must watch the Dollar
Major turns are now happening at the same time
========================================

THIS PICTURE is worth 1,000 words

DXDDX (2.5x Bear-USD) versus QQQ ... update : 6months


Let me add a few words nonetheless.

But First, some definitions:
My dollar measure (DXDXX) is a 2.5x geared, INVERSE etf on the Dollar -
(so when the Dollar falls, DXDXX rises 2.5 as fast, in percentage terms.)
The gearing added to the Dollar etf, makes it directly comparable with stocks, & I use:
As my measure for stocks: QQQ- which is an etf for the Nasdaq 100 etf.

So...
STOCKS have been rising in line with the weakening of the Dollar.
And when the Dollar has bumped up, stocks have pulled back.
Previously, there was a 1-2 month lead by the Dollar, but that has now disappeared

Both measures appear to have reached a key resistance level at the same time.


So Watch these two self-updating charts: / LongerTerm: RUTvs.DXDDX : DXDDXvs.RUT

USD / US$ Intraday, Kitco . : RUT / Russell Index of x,000 stocks
....

The Euro and the Yen, also want watching.

RUT versus : DXDDX, FXE, & FXY ... update : Intraday : DXY-Intraday : UUP-Intraday


Here's UUP- PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund ... update

UUP upclose ... update : 10d-update : DXY-10d-update


= = = = =
LINKS
Link to this thread :: http://tinyurl.com/QQQvUSD
US Dollar News .... :: http://news.google.c...r exchange rate
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 DrBubb

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 04:20 PM

FANNING "speedlines'

Update: 10.Nov.2009 ... 3yr-SPX/FXE


Old Observation:
I found a chart which puts some importance on the recent low


Longer Term


We seem to be "fanning out" into a series of tops.

here's SPX

Let's see how soon the next one arises
== ==

VIX Calls / Last: $22.27 at 10/23/2009:

Month : -$20.00/c : -$25.00/c : -$30.00/c : -$40.00/c
Nov.08: 4.30-4.50 : 1.60-1.70 : 0.70-0.75 : 0.20-0.25
Dec08: 5.50-5.90 : 2.55-2.65 : 1.15-1.25 : 0.35-0.45
Jan.09: 6.20-6.70 : 3.20-3.50 : 1.65-1.75 : 0.60-0.70
Feb09: 7.00-7.60 : 3.80-4.20 : 2.05-2.30 : 0.70-0.90
Mar09: 7.00-7.70 : 3.90-4.40 : 2.25-2.55 : 0.80-1.00

/see: http://bigcharts.mar.../...rs=6&bars=5
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 DrBubb

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Posted 21 October 2009 - 03:43 PM

G: Bubb, could you be swimming against the tide? A carry-trade kind of tide?
B: "With 98% Bulls on stocks, the Tide has gone about as far as it can, I think"
QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Oct 22 2009, 12:00 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I was more referring to the USD. What if the anti-correlation breaks?

Anything can happen, of course.
But they sure look like ending patterns to me

Euro ... update : intraday


QQQ ... update : intraday


These fresh highs are showing only weak volume. And they look very Wave-5-ish to me.
I know, I sound like a broken record, as I wonder if we will hit Tony C's target of SPX-1107

Meantime, I see crude is at $80.55, within that $80-85 "topping band" I identified last week.

Semiconductors /SMH ... update - a sign that the game is ending?


In Edit:
...so what happened by the end of the day...
QUOTE (Perishabull @ Oct 22 2009, 05:06 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Wow, really sharp sell-off into the close, SPY breaching Friday's low, SP futures below Fridays low, quite a spike in volume too


SPX Point Count:
A: 0956.23 - 666.79 = 290 pts + 43.4% / 66.7%
B: 0956.23 - 869.32 = 090 pts. - 09.1% / 20.7%
C: 1101.36 - 869.32 = 232 pts + 26.7% / 53.3%
T: 1101.36 - 666.79 = 435 pts + 65.2% / 100.%
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 DrBubb

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Posted 22 November 2009 - 12:34 PM

Do Gold stocks "run out of gas" before gold ?
The Weekly chart shows that Gold shares (XAU) have bottomed before Gold more often than they peaked before Gold

Weekly chart ... update


In any case, Gold is now far ahead of Gold shares

Daily chart ... update : 10day-15min


The Daily chart looks more convincing to me. And it also looks as if it may be in a peaking area
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 carlajons

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Posted 23 November 2009 - 12:25 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Nov 22 2009, 01:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Do Gold stocks "run out of gas" before gold ?
The Weekly chart shows that Gold shares (XAU) have bottomed before Gold more often than they peaked before Gold

Weekly chart ... update


In any case, Gold is now far ahead of Gold shares

Daily chart ... update : 10day-15min


The Daily chart looks more convincing to me. And it also looks as if it may be in a peaking area



Yeah,but i can't seem to understand these charts..Hope you'll explain further more so we could easily understand it..


Regards,
carlajons
Pret voiture




#12 DrBubb

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Posted 25 November 2009 - 02:47 AM

QUOTE (carlajons @ Nov 23 2009, 08:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Yeah,but i can't seem to understand these charts..Hope you'll explain further more so we could easily understand it..
Regards,
carlajons
Pret voiture


Get a good book on charting. And in the meantime'
+ Market prices tend to trade within trendlines, until they are broken
+ Gold's breakout has not been confirmed (on those charts) by a breakout in Gold stocks/XAU, and so
+ Gold may soon head lower, dragged down by faltering sentiment, or it will need to drag gold stocks higher.

No guarantees, but we have seen this in the past

Please ask questions on the current thread, which is now November.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 DrBubb

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Posted 29 November 2009 - 05:12 AM

Redrawing GF's chart


A 5:1 target?
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#14 DrBubb

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Posted 08 December 2009 - 12:35 AM

Objective Elliott Wave (OEW) per Tony Caldero

OEW tutoring
Long term investor psychology cycles influence markets. When the cycle is positive a bull market unfolds, when negative a bear market. The Objective Elliott Wave (OEW) technique not only determines if a market is bullish or bearish, it also determines how far a market has progressed in its current cycle.

OEW is not textbook Elliott Wave. It is a proprietary technique that defines every significant wave, within bull and bear markets, quantitatively. With this approach one can historically analyze any market to define its exact wave structure, and determine what the past is projecting about the future. We did this in the early 1980's on the entire history of the US stock market. When waves are determined quantitatively they never change, past or present. Our analysis led us to believe that a stock market crash was likely in late 1987 or early 1988. When the stock market did crash in October 1987, and then the wave structure resumed its bull market to new highs in 1990. We knew we had uncovered some of the missing tenets of the Elliott Wave Theory.

Recently OEW analysis has led to some important projections in a variety of markets. We projected the 2005 bull market in China. That market rose about 400% in two years. We determined a Housing top in mid-2005. That bear market was confirmed in the spring of 2006. We determined the top in the Banking sector in mid-2007. That bear market was confirmed in late 2007. We remained bullish on equity markets worldwide until early January 2008. And, despite this recent upsurge, which we anticipated, we remain bearish. OEW projected the bull market in the USD in the spring of 2008, and recently turned bearish near the highs. OEW projected the top in the Crude market at exactly $148/bbl last summer.

OEW has remained long term bullish on Gold since 2001, and remains bullish. Finally, OEW is projecting a major bear market in Bonds. A new bull market in Natural Gas, Livestock and is bullish on all the commodities.

Bull and bear markets can last for years. Uptrends and downtrends last for months, and can often be mistaken for changes in long term trends. OEW analysis not only confirms when changes in long term trends are occurring, but also allows one to follow the bull/bear market as it unfolds.

If you are interested in learning how to do this type of analysis yourself, and joining our international OEW group, please contact me at caldaro@msn.com for details. Best to your trading!

/see: http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 DrBubb

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Posted 16 December 2009 - 03:35 AM

GOLD'S LADDER : Steps on the Way Down that may trigger Hedge Fund selling ... update



I think a bounce may be due in the next few days, buy after that, we may test Step#1

Approximate levels :
== GOLD Support
==: GLD . : x10.2
#1 : $108 : $1,102
#2 : $100 : $1,020
#3 : $ 97. : $ 989
#4 : $ 91. : $ 928
#5 : $ 85. : $ 867
#6 : $ 79. : $ 806

GOLD STOCKS, as measured by GDX ... update



I think we may get a bounce here from #1, but I think after that a drop to #2 or lower is very likely.

== GOLD Support
== : GDX . above : ratio : x 24 :
#1 : $47 : $1,102 : 23.4 : $1.128
#2 : $41 : $1,020 : 24.9 : $ 928 .
#3 : $37. : $ 989. : 26.7 : $ 888 .
#4 : $33. : $ 928. : 28.1 : $ 792 .
#5 : $30. : $ 867. : 28.9 : $ 720 .
#6 : $27. : $ 806. : 29.8 : $ 648 .
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#16 DrBubb

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Posted 25 February 2010 - 01:56 PM

Sentiment measures, with charts on Stockcharts.com
======
$BPCOMPQ Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPDISC S&P Consumer Discretionary Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPENER S&P Energy Sector Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPFINA S&P Financial Sector Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPGDM Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPHEAL S&P Healthcare Sector Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPINDU DJIA Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPINDY S&P Industrials Sector Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPINFO S&P Technology Sector Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPMATE S&P Materials Sector Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPNDX Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPNYA NYSE Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPOEX S&P 100 Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPSTAP S&P Consumer Staples Sector Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPTELE S&P Telecom Services Sector Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPTRAN DJTA Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPTSE TSE Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
$BPUTIL S&P Utilities Sector Bullish Percent Index (EOD) INDX
======
These are worth a look, if you are a contrarian

/More Symbols :: http://stockcharts.com/symsearch/

These are worth a look, if you are a contrarian.
Look at the contrast here:

SPX- sentiment / current SPX : 1,105.24 Change: +10.64


GDM / Gold shares - sentiment / current GDM : 1,165.53 Change: -6.64


...makes me think I should be buying gold shares soon.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 DrBubb

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Posted 11 March 2010 - 10:45 AM

SECRET CHART from StockTiming

Normally embargoed, this chart has been made available on a public site...

[This chart is brought to you as a courtesy today, and is posted daily on our paid subscriber website. In fairness to our subscribers, this chart will only be posted a couple of times per year on this free site.]

We are still near the "in danger" zone, it suggests


Comment:
The Danger/Safety Zone chart model ...
The way this chart works, is that the green bars reflect the safety level, and the red bars reflect the danger level.

The color of the bars above the horizontal line is the predominant condition. The other bar should be below the bottom horizontal line reflecting the diminishing opposite condition. (When a bar level is in between both horizontal lines, it indicates a higher-risk, mixed condition.)

So, what is the model saying today?

It says that we just came out of a Danger Zone condition and now have a Safety Zone condition. That is because the green bars are above the top horizontal line and moving higher, and because the red bars are now below the bottom red horizontal line and moving lower.

*** Comments: So, Safety levels will continue to improve as long as the green bars stay positive and move higher, while the red bars stay negative and move lower.

I would like to see the red bars a lot lower than they are now, but the MACD-C is just starting to turn positive, so a healthy condition would be for the red bars to start moving down faster on their descending process.

/see: http://www.stocktimi...arketUpdate.htm
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#18 DrBubb

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Posted 03 July 2010 - 02:33 PM

MARKET SENTIMENT Measures

chart .. update




Data Capture: %Bulls / %Bears / Spread / Ratio
Aug 24, 2010 : . 33.3 % / 31.2 % / 02.10 / R-1.07
Aug 17, 2010 : . 36.7 % / 31.1 % / 05.60 / R-1.18
Aug 10, 2010 : . 41.7 % / 27.5 % / 14.20 / R-1.52
Aug 03, 2010 : . 38.9 % / 33.3 % / 06.60 / R-1.17
Jun 29, 2010 : . 41.1 % / 33.3 % / 07.80 / R-1.23
Jun 22, 2010 : . 41.1 % / 31.1 % / 10.00 / R-1.32
Jun 15, 2010 : . 37.0 % / 32.6 % / 04.40 / R-1.13
Jun 08, 2010 : . 38.5 % / 31.9 % / 06.60 / R-1.21

BULLISH PERCENTAGES / sentiment measures
BPNYA : http://stockcharts.c...eb?...3]&pref=G
BPNDX : http://stockcharts.c...eb?...3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...eb?...3]&pref=G

II Investor's Survey : http://www.investors...ce.com/x600x400 : Other chart
Investors Confidence : chart / data: http://internet.stat...toricaldata.pdf
== == ==

AAII Sentiment Survey Data




AAII Bulls: Historic - to 1/2008 to ?/2010



Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
July 01: 24.68% 33.33% 41.99%
June 24: 34.46% 33.11% 32.43%
June 17: 42.45% 26.89% 30.66%
June 10: 34.48% 22.41% 43.10%
June 03: 37.09% 22.07% 40.85%
May 27: 29.82% 19.30% 50.88%
May 20: 41.30% 25.00% 33.70%
May 13: 36.60% 26.80% 36.60%
May 06: 39.13% 32.30% 28.57%
April 29: 41.36% 30.00% 28.64%
April 22: 38.12% 27.62% 34.25%
April 15: 48.48% 21.82% 29.70%
April 08: 42.86% 26.79% 30.36%
April 01: 41.30% 27.54% 31.16%
March 25: 32.39% 32.95% 34.66%
March 18: 35.37% 34.76% 29.88%
March 11: 45.29% 29.41% 25.29%
March 04: 35.86% 37.93% 26.21%
Feb. 25: 34.90% 35.57% 29.53%
Feb. 18: 35.85% 28.93% 35.22%
Feb. 11: 36.75% 21.37% 41.88%
Feb. 0: 29.23% 27.69% 43.08%

/update: http://www.aaii.com/...ent_results.cfm
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 DrBubb

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 10:28 AM

QUOTE (Van @ Aug 23 2010, 05:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Very interesting. I see this as a classic contrarian sign that we are near a long term low in stocks. As we know the herd is necessarily wrong at the bottom and top of major markets. Have you ever read any of David Dreman's books on contrarian investing? He uses everyday "sentiment" indicators like (if I remember correctly) presidential rating, number of investment clubs, retailers' outlook etc and makes a very convincing case that when these hit extreme bullish or bearish levels then doing the opposite will generate the best returns.

I'm not so sure about that.

I am a bit older than you, and I can recall the long Bear Market of the 1970's. The individual investor went bearish, and stayed bearish on stocks, withdrawing more and more money... over a period of years. (If you listened to the recent GEI Experts podcast, this is the important historical fact that Dave Skarica is missing.)

The big question is: If individuals have NOT been buying, then WHO HAS BEEN BUYING?

Answer: Institutions, including banks, using very cheap money. These guys, who may be the suckers of our time, have run down their cash, and are now massively long stocks. They made good money since early 2009, but may not be willing to ride out a big drop. So if stocks slide, they may turn sellers quickly, as they did in the Flash Crash. Presently, I would rather bet against them than "the little guy", who has been beat up by what is happening in the real economy.

== == ==

Money Market Mutual Fund Assets
August 19, 2010

Washington, DC, August 19, 2010 - Total money market mutual fund assets increased by $4.11 billion to $2.826 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, August 18, the Investment Company Institute reported today. Taxable government funds decreased by $3.26 billion, taxable non-government funds increased by $9.29 billion, and tax-exempt funds decreased by $1.92 billion.

/source: http://www.ici.org/r...mmf/mm_08_19_10

Total MM Funds
01/02/08 : $3.156 Trillion
03/26/08 : $3.518
06/25/08 : $3.472
09/24/08 : $3.453
12/30/08 : $3.840
03/25/09 : $3.859
06/24/09 : $3.713
09/30/09 : $3.451
12/29/09 : $3.299
03/31/10 : $2.983
06/30/10 : $2.811
=======
07/07/10 : $2.829
07/14/10 : $2.815
07/21/10 : $2.797
07/28/10 : $2.800
08/04/10 : $2.818
08/11/10 : $2.821
08/18/10 : $2.826 /see: http://www.ici.org/r...mmf/mm_08_19_10
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#20 DrBubb

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Posted 23 September 2010 - 02:01 AM

From the Diary
QUOTE (DrBubb @ Sep 23 2010, 10:45 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Bullish Percentage is already high enough.

If you look back to 2008, you will see BPSPX never got above present levels


BPGDM (Gold Mining shares) is dangerously extreme, but has been here many times

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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