233 replies to this topic

[Jake]

Has anyone had a chance to read the Asian Financial Forecast yet? I keep getting EWI 'oops error we are sorry...'
It sounds like an interesting edition for China/Japan watchers.
Anyone?

[Jake]

Has anyone had a chance to read the Asian Financial Forecast yet? I keep getting EWI 'oops error we are sorry...'
It sounds like an interesting edition for China/Japan watchers.
Anyone?

October AFF mayday mayday ...

[DrBubb]

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[DrBubb]

NEW BUTTON, linking to article on China versus Japan

....

Link: http://www.elliottwave.com/Insights-into-China-&-Japan

[Jake]

I was thinking more of October 2010...which I cant get. I've read most of these others.

[DrBubb]

...

Link: http://www.elliottwave.com/single-issues/f...p;acn=goldstock

[Jake]

Bob's latest is a bit of a barn stormer. 2011 'should' see everything go down as sentiment in eveything peaks. The flip side of 2009.

[G0ldfinger]

Does someone wanna do an Elliott on this one?  

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/Oil_USD.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/Oil_USD_LOG.html

[sarmat]

[PositiveDeviant]

I'm short EUR/USD right now.  Is there any hope for me sarmat?!

[DrBubb]

FREE BOOK : Prechter's classic !

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[DrBubb]

"Point of recognition" coming ?

Are we approaching the "point of recognition", namely the juncture which begins an explosive move up or down, as large numbers of market participants see the dominant trend for what it is?

Here are Bob Prechter's words, directly from this issue of The Theorist:

"Four such points within waves of Primary degree have occurred during my career, three on the upside and one on the downside. In three of those cases, I knew exactly where the market was in its development.... These were the points of maximum upside acceleration... and maximum downside acceleration."

He also says three of those four points were upside moves, while one of those "violent leaps" was to the downside. (If you can recall how the stock market plummeted in September/October of 2008 -- you're recalling a point of recognition.)
= = = = = = = = = = = =



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Bob Prechter's most recent Elliott Wave Theorist is now online, free!

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This is a unique opportunity for your viewers to see what Prechter's subscribers see ... and when they see it.

[DrBubb]

Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave (OEW)

Over the years OEW analysis has led to some important projections in just the stock market alone. We projected the 1987 top and subsequent crash, then the 1987 low. The 1990 top, the 2000 top and the 2002 low. The Oct. 2007 top (in Jan08) and the Mar. 2009 low nearly to the day. Currently it certainly looks like the stock market topped again in May/July 2011.

OEW analysis can also be used to track other asset classes. In housing, OEW confirmed the current bear market in 2006. In bonds, OEW confirmed the current bull market in 2007. In the currency markets, OEW projected a strong rally in the USD in early 2008 after a three year decline. Then a resumption of its choppy bear market in 2009 and 2010. We are now bearish on several foreign currencies. In early 2009 OEW projected a resumption of the ongoing 13 year bull market in commodities. This included the powerful 13 year bull markets in both Gold and Silver. OEW can be used to track any asset class, including stocks, providing there is sufficient historical data.

/more: http://caldaro.wordp...ew-tutoring-54/

[DrBubb]

(From EWI):

The stock market's had some tremendous drops and some amazing rallies over the past weeks. Before you get too comfortable that the bull is back, be sure to read our latest Featured Article: Did the Past 7 Weeks of Rally Lull You to Sleep? The chart alone speaks volumes!

This article promotes our newest report, Stocks: -- Buying Opportunity or Another "Free Fall" Ahead?, which includes excerpts from Bob Prechter's August and September Theorists.

LINK: http://gainesville.e...2779/234764/10/

[PositiveDeviant]

Prechter interviewed by Douglas Lodmell - "The Mind of Money"

[DrBubb]

Is it 1973 all over again?
Commentary: Scary scenario, but not everyone is buying

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Wednesday’s bad break has the bears bugalooing. But one judicious bull is standing firm.

A really scary comment from Elliott Wave Theorist’s Bob Prechter: “In my judgment, the situation is very like that of 1973. …The market has been in a two-year bear market rally, per our interpretation of the Elliott Wave model; and a broad bullish consensus had developed on stocks, recalling January 1973’s ‘Not A Bear Among Them’ headline from Barron’s.”

“In 1973, the stock market topped in January and was weak into August; then it rallied hard right through September and October, statistically the two most bearish months of the year. It was a convincing rally and optimism returned. That rally ended on Oct. 31, leaving the ‘bear months’ in the dust. But instead of continuing higher, the market turned lower, and in just a month plunged below its August low. November is usually a benign month, but that year it wasn’t…”

Prechter was quick to add: “None of this PROVES anything. Today’s huge intraday TICK and TRIN [two technical indicators] numbers, in fact, would usually be associated with a near-term bottom, so there is plenty of room for uncertainty. But the main exception to that tendency occurs at the kickoffs of major declines, and that’s how the waves seem to be positioned.”

A whole generation of investors has grown up thinking Prechter has always been bearish. But this has not always been so, and anyway the Crash of 2008 (after which his letters were briefly bullish) nearly got him onside. ( See Oct. 13 column. )

Dennis Slothower of Stealth Stock Daily Alert, who also dodged the Crash of 2008, isn’t always bearish either. But bearishness has worked for him this year. ( See Oct. 6 column. ).

He said flatly last night: “Given the horrible developments in Europe and the chaos we are likely to see in the next few weeks as details emerge from the ‘Super Committee,’ it would not surprise me to see a 50% or 61.8% retracement off the October rally, which would be another 4%-6% drop from here.”

Slothower is currently 100% in cash.

/more: http://www.marketwat...nvestinginsight

[DrBubb]

: FREE report

The Smell of Fear: Detecting the Dow's Scent
Stocks typically fall faster than they rise

June 12, 2012
By Elliott Wave International
Rising stock prices vs. investor fear: When one is present, the other is usually absent.

Yet the two were actually in each other's company around the time of the most recent high in the Dow Industrials (May 1):

This week the Dow carried to a new recovery high without generating a corresponding new low in the VIX. This suggests a sudden hesitancy compared with the all-out, risk-on stance registered by the VIX's behavior in March. The NASDAQ's non-confirmation against the Dow's new high also suggests a sudden reticence to ramp up portfolio risk. Last year, EWFF used a similar hiccup in the VIX to help identify the May 2011 high. With the Dow at or near the end of its rally, the odds favor a similar outcome now.

Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, May 3, 2012

The accompanying chart from that issue (wave labels removed - see top of thread):

When the markets were still going up at the beginning of 2012, were you warned that they would soon go down?

Read the full May issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast FREE for a limited time (a $29 value)

No one should invest a dime in U.S. or European markets until they read this 10-page report at least 3 times. Get up to speed and ahead of the markets now. Read the May 2012 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast from Elliott Wave International and get the complete big-picture forecast for U.S. and Europe -- financially, economically and socially.

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[DrBubb]

TOP Elliott Wave analysts (take it with a grain of salt):

http://www.wavegeniu...tesradio-shows/

(where do you think he puts himself?)
== ==

Here's another:

Topping Out Very Soon
by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
Wed Sep 5th 2012 (before Thursday's big rally)

With the ES providing nothing less than a veritable mess, I will be defaulting to the IWM for a bit more clarity at this time.  As you can see from the attached chart on the IWM, we need one more small push up to complete a b-wave within a wave iv, which will then lead to a decline towards the 80 region to complete a c-wave for this wave iv.  This would set up one further rally to new highs to complete the entire larger ( wave of the yellow b-wave off the June lows.



Alternatively, this top can be considered the top of the wave v of the ( wave, which would mean that the 80 level will not likely hold as support.  However, since we do not yet have a higher high for a 5th wave in the ES, this leads me to believe that the primary pattern still has us within a 4th wave and the top which we will most likely hit tomorrow is just a b-wave in a larger 4th wave.

/more: https://www.elliottw...0905224637.html

[webmaster]

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=====

If OIL IS GOING DOWN... Will Gold Drop too ??

[DrBubb]

Tony Caldaro's E-Wave counts

DrBubb, on 18 November 2012 - 08:59 AM, said:

Tony C, has two counts, but prefers the Bullish one:

Despite the markets seemingly relentless decline since the Election, this correction continues to look quite normal for this stage of the wave structure. It has declined somewhat more than we recently expected as the SPX hit, our worse case support scenario, SPX 1345/46 on friday.

On wednesday we raised the probability for our alternate bearish count from 20% to 30%. Remaining objective we would like to review both of these bullish and bearish counts, as the market has reached another inflection point. They seem to occur every year now.
/more: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/

Bullish


Bearish

TonyC:

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend hits SPX 1343
The current downtrend, we have been labeling Intermediate wave ii, has now declined 8.9% from the bull market high of SPX 1475. Previous Int. wave ii corrections, during this bull market, have declined between 9.1% and 10.4%. This also happens to be the mean range for all corrections during this bull market.
Currently we have a rare ‘quite’ oversold condition on the weekly chart with an MACD still above the bullish neutral. The daily chart is displaying a near ‘extreme’ oversold condition, and the hourly chart is displaying a positive divergence. These technical readings have been signs of an pending downtrend low during this bull market.