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The Elliott Wave thread / Comments, links, charts


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#161 Jake

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Posted 06 July 2010 - 01:44 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jul 5 2010, 11:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
lines added

Would I be wrong in thinking that that graph suggests the Dow will fall to around 1000?
"We are reaping what has been sown over the last three decades of creating a grotesquely unequal society with an ethos of grab as much as you can by any means. A society of looters created by MPs and their expenses, bankers and their bonuses, tax-evading corporations, hacking journalists, bribe-taking police officers, and now a group of alienated kids are seizing their chance. This is not to condone but to understand." - John McDonnell MP


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#162 DrBubb

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Posted 06 July 2010 - 04:20 PM

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 6 2010, 10:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Would I be wrong in thinking that that graph suggests the Dow will fall to around 1000?

That's definitely possible.
But it has gone higher in the meantime, especially if you tag China on at the end of it
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#163 DrBubb

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Posted 06 July 2010 - 11:44 PM

The king of doom: veteran forecaster predicts Wall Street slump of up to 90%

Feeling too cheerful? In danger of irrational exuberance? Meet the finance man with a plan to depress you - a veteran market forecaster called Robert Prechter who is predicting a stockmarket slide of quite staggering proportions.

Prechter, a cult figure in the finance world whose dramatic predictions have sometimes come true, reckons the Dow Jones Industrial Average is set for a fall from its present level of 9,743 to as little as 1,000 to 3,000 points - in other words, a collapse of 70% to 90% in the value of stocks - over the next five to seven years.

"It is very clear there is substantial stockmarket risk," he told Reuters today.

He expounded on his theory further in the New York Times over the weekend, urging investors to get out of the stockmarket and into safer US treasury bills and bonds.

"I'm saying 'winter is coming, buy a coat'," he told the NYT. "Other people are advising people to stay naked. If I'm wrong, you're not hurt. If they're wrong, you're dead. It's pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while."

Prechter, 61, is a former Merrill Lynch analyst and erstwhile rock drummer who is an aficionado of a theory called the Elliott Wave principle - essentially a belief that investor behaviour can be forecast according to measurable swings and patterns of psychology.

Prechter is not without credibility - he is a former president of the Market Technicians Association and was named "guru of the decade" back in 1989 for his prediction of the bull market of the early 1980s and the stockmarket crash of 1987. He runs a consultancy called Elliott Wave International, based in Georgia.

Prechter tells the NYT that he now expects a crash akin to the collapse of the South Sea Bubble of 1720: "If I'm right, it will be such a shock that people will be telling their grandkids many years from now 'don't touch stocks'."

His misery doesn't end at the stockmarket. Prechter reckons US house prices, which have fallen by 40% in some states, are only about halfway through their fall. He thinks that pretty soon, a US dollar will be worth no more than a Swiss franc and that Europe is in for a spell of deflation.

Before anybody jumps off a cliff, it's worth noting that Prechter has been in this mood before. Back in 2002, he published a book called "conquer the crash: you can survive and prosper in a deflationary depression" which warned of imminent catastrophe and was, at best, extremely premature. Even back then, he was dubbed the "king of doom".

/see: http://www.guardian....seconomy-shares
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#164 Jake

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Posted 07 July 2010 - 12:03 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jul 6 2010, 04:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
That's definitely possible.
But it has gone higher in the meantime, especially if you tag China on at the end of it

I didn't realize it ends 2002 until just now!
Note to self: read the small print.
"We are reaping what has been sown over the last three decades of creating a grotesquely unequal society with an ethos of grab as much as you can by any means. A society of looters created by MPs and their expenses, bankers and their bonuses, tax-evading corporations, hacking journalists, bribe-taking police officers, and now a group of alienated kids are seizing their chance. This is not to condone but to understand." - John McDonnell MP


"Things got a bit out of hand & we'd had a few drinks. We smashed the place up and Boris set fire to the toilets."
David Cameron, 7th June 1986.

#165 GTG

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Posted 08 July 2010 - 10:14 PM

GBPUSD

GBPUSD

DXc1

DXc1

???USD

The entire modern financial system is based upon a very small group of people having the power to create money out of thin air.

#166 DrBubb

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Posted 09 July 2010 - 12:54 AM

Great charts, GTG
But it is hard to see what some of them are.

Do you think you could put the symbol at the top of each?
Like: "SPX" or whatever
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#167 Carlton

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Posted 09 July 2010 - 04:11 AM

One of the comments from that Prechter article:

QUOTE
GregoryUK GregoryUK

7 Jul 2010, 4:39PM

For the Aussie analyst:

The break with "reality" occurs about 1985:
US GDP: 4 trillion
DJIA: 1200+-

2007
US GDP: 14 trillion
DJIA: 13000

GDP up 3.5 DJIA up up 10X

I see DJIA at 4000 or just below, what do you say?
Although, I suppose one of the counter-arguments is that US corporations have penetrated foreign markets more today than in 1985, hence US GDP is a less relevant indicator.
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#168 GTG

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Posted 09 July 2010 - 11:37 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jul 9 2010, 01:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Great charts, GTG
But it is hard to see what some of them are.

Do you think you could put the symbol at the top of each?
Like: "SPX" or whatever


Thanks DrBubb, I'm pleased you asked that question. As you know it takes a bit of time and effort to make up and post charts, I did these a long with a narrative explaining the charts with possible price targets etc. When I came to post it I got an "authorisation mismatch" error so I clicked on "select all" to save it to my clip board then returned to post it again. To my horror when I pasted to the new window it only reproduced the URL of the last chart at photobucket!! The air was blue I can tell you. It has happened to me quite a few times but this time with my post being quite long and me being a little tired at the time my patience had ran out. I thought sod it I'm not wasting the charts so found just enough patience left to copy the URL's of the charts into the post.

I just do not know why this occurs, also I can only use the quick/fast post feature when in Firefox - I've asked on the board if anyone has a solution to this but to no avail. I'm using IE at the moment. Also the images come out very dull for which I've tried remedying this by turning the brightness up very high when exporting the charts from my charting application. I'll make sure in future at the least I'll do similar to what you have done. The last one is Eur/Usd by the way.

I was quite excited to do these charts as in particlar I think I've nailed the bottom of primary wave 4 on the dollar index also being confirmed by the ending diagonal on eur/usd. Considering wave five - under EWP - on the index can be a maximum of 831 points -off the top of my head - it is an opportunity for massive profit potential very anyone that wants to get on board. Whats so neet about it is one can take a huge position without the risk of losing much if incorrect, I know I am!
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#169 GTG

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Posted 09 July 2010 - 01:58 PM

You'll have to excuse me folks I've had an eyesight problem of the last 24 hours, it's called "ending diagonal" blindness... here's another one on the FTSE100 ETF ISF smile.gif



I'm about to go short with SUK2.

And another, it's a bit of a backwater stock market this one though smile.gif

E-mini S&P500 futures



A beautiful sight - I must be sad biggrin.gif
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#170 DrBubb

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Posted 09 July 2010 - 05:46 PM

QUOTE (GTG @ Jul 9 2010, 08:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Thanks DrBubb, I'm pleased you asked that question. As you know it takes a bit of time and effort to make up and post charts, I did these a long with a narrative explaining the charts with possible price targets etc. When I came to post it I got an "authorisation mismatch" error so I clicked on "select all" to save it to my clip board then returned to post it again. To my horror when I pasted to the new window it only reproduced the URL of the last chart at photobucket!! The air was blue I can tell you. It has happened to me quite a few times but this time with my post being quite long and me being a little tired at the time my patience had ran out. I thought sod it I'm not wasting the charts so found just enough patience left to copy the URL's of the charts into the post.

Try this:
Post the URLs, and Save
Then, add the labels later, if it allows you to do so.
Or just add them at the bottom, like this
In Order:
GBP
USD
SPX
as an example
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#171 GTG

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Posted 09 July 2010 - 07:09 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jul 9 2010, 06:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Try this:
Post the URLs, and Save
Then, add the labels later, if it allows you to do so.
Or just add them at the bottom, like this
In Order:
GBP
USD
SPX
as an example


Thanks, I'll give that a swing, I'm going over now to post up some charts on the EW gold contract thread.
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#172 Catflap

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Posted 13 July 2010 - 11:23 PM

Carl Futia on Elliot Wave:

Chart

QUOTE
Elliott wave theory has become very popular in the wake of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Lots of Elliott wave blogs have sprung up and most of them focus on the U.S. stock market averages.

I have mixed feelings about Elliott's wave theory. On the one hand it can sometimes enable one to construct spectacularly correct market forecasts. On the other, it offers too much scope for personal prejudice and bias to influence the wave count. For this latter reason I don't find it much of much use in my day-to-day market activities.

In my view the top two Elliott wave interpreters of the last 60 years were Hamilton Bolton and Charles Collins (sadly, both now deceased). They shared one important attitude towards Elliott's theory. Each believed that one should not expect the small details of the price movement to fit the theory exactly. Instead they emphasized the importance of looking only at the big picture, especially if it just jumps out at you from the chart.

The chart above this post shows the cash S&P from the start of the current bull market on March of 2009 at the 666 level. I have traced in green the first upward leg of the bull market which divided clearly into a classic, five wave Elliott pattern. Elliott's theory asserts that a five wave movement up from a low such as was seen in March 2009 is never a completed bull market. Instead it will be followed by a three wave corrective movement, and then by at least one more, five wave move up to new highs.

The drop from the 1219 level of the April 26, 2010 high subdivides into a classic, three stage, "flat"correction: three smaller waves down to the May 25 low, then three smaller waves up to the June 21 high, and finally a fast, scary movement down to the final low of the correction at 1010. I have traced this wave sequence for you in red.

Not only is the wave pattern of this correction exceptionally clear, but the correction ended almost exactly at the .382 Fibonacci retracement of the five wave up leg. This is added evidence that the correction is complete. Further support for this deduction comes from the extreme bearishness of individual investors and the strong bullish divergences shown by the advancing issues oscillators at the July 2 low point.

So I think that Elliott's wave theory offers more evidence that new highs for the move up from the March 2009 low lie ahead. The remarkable thing about this analysis is that, despite its simplicity, it is not the view of most of the Elliott wave blogs (exceptions: Caldaro and PUG). The Elliott wavers are bearish, almost to a man. This illustrates how easy it is to fit Elliott's theory to one's own market biases.


#173 chazza

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 09:28 AM

I think he is wrong on this point:

QUOTE
The chart above this post shows the cash S&P from the start of the current bull market on March of 2009 at the 666 level. I have traced in green the first upward leg of the bull market which divided clearly into a classic, five wave Elliott pattern. Elliott's theory asserts that a five wave movement up from a low such as was seen in March 2009 is never a completed bull market. Instead it will be followed by a three wave corrective movement, and then by at least one more, five wave move up to new highs.


EW assert a five wave move of impulsive waves, which we did not see
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#174 GTG

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 12:15 PM

QUOTE (chazza @ Jul 14 2010, 10:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think he is wrong on this point:



EW assert a five wave move of impulsive waves, which we did not see


I have never seen this rule or guideline either but in the interests of self improvement I'd be more than happy to be proved wrong. Trading is a serious business and I'd hope he has actually taken the time to learn EWP before offering a critique. Anyone assessing and offering a critique on a trading method by looking at others charts/counts in the blogsosphere and not learning what the underling considerations are.... well, does n't deserve the time of day IMO.

I think what he meant to say is that a single five way corrective impulse can never be regarded as a complete hence there is always a more complex corrective structure to unfold. However, this does not necessarily mean that it will consist of a three corrective waves and a further five wave impulse!

Catflap have you seen this rule or guideline or can you point to the page in Frost and Prechters book please.
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#175 Catflap

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Posted 15 July 2010 - 10:56 AM

QUOTE (GTG @ Jul 14 2010, 01:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Catflap have you seen this rule or guideline or can you point to the page in Frost and Prechters book please.


I havn't since I don't use Elliot Wave myself and havn't read any of the above authors books. I think Carl Futia understands Elliot Wave extremely well which is why he has quoted names I have never heard of (Hamilton Bolton and Charles Collins) along with Elliot Wavers who are getting it right in his opinion (Caldaro and PUG). Caldaro is bullish and supposadly has the #1 rated EW blog worldwide......




#176 DrBubb

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Posted 15 July 2010 - 12:06 PM

QUOTE (Catflap @ Jul 14 2010, 07:23 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Carl Futia on Elliot Wave:
So I think that Elliott's wave theory offers more evidence that new highs for the move up from the March 2009 low lie ahead. The remarkable thing about this analysis is that, despite its simplicity, it is not the view of most of the Elliott wave blogs (exceptions: Caldaro and PUG). The Elliott wavers are bearish, almost to a man. This illustrates how easy it is to fit Elliott's theory to one's own market biases.
Chart

Excuse me, CF. What's Carl's "market bias"?
Only time will tell if he is right or not.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#177 Hogwild

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Posted 15 July 2010 - 12:29 PM

Technical analysis should be used together with fundamental and economic factors.
The March 2009 lows are likely to be proved the long term low.The move over the past 2 months is a correction of the move up from those lows. Monetary policy is loose and will likely remain so for a considerable period; this will gradually translate into a further move up. It will likely be a choppy market. Overall, the stock market will lead the real economy as it always does. Bull markets are always killed off by CB's raising interest rates; we are in the opposite position currently. Monetary policy trumps everything else. We may not se a rise in real terms but we certainly will in nominal terms.

#178 chazza

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Posted 15 July 2010 - 12:52 PM

QUOTE (Catflap @ Jul 15 2010, 11:56 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I havn't since I don't use Elliot Wave myself and havn't read any of the above authors books. I think Carl Futia understands Elliot Wave extremely well which is why he has quoted names I have never heard of (Hamilton Bolton and Charles Collins) along with Elliot Wavers who are getting it right in his opinion (Caldaro and PUG). Caldaro is bullish and supposadly has the #1 rated EW blog worldwide......


Yup think it comes down to overall bias. Not that impressed by PUg's analysis, a very broad interpretation of impulse waves IMO and doesnt look at volume. Also I think Calderos 180 degree switch on his view, whilst ballsy, is also based on fragile assumptions.

However each to their own
“What experience and history teaches us is that people and governments have never learned anything from history, or acted on principles deduced from it”
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770-1831)

#179 DrBubb

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Posted 22 July 2010 - 03:30 PM

WTI crude is up almost 3% today


Link: FREE Week - EWI Energy


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#180 50sQuiff

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Posted 23 July 2010 - 05:57 PM

Yelnick has a completely different, and much more sophisticated/purist take on the current wave structure than Carl Futia. Yelnick is the man as far as I'm concerned, when I'm looking for EW meta commentary.

The bottom line is that this '5 wave advance' has not been 'impulsive' and does not signify a new bull market, like Futia and Caldaro are calling for.
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