Dashboard - Updated regularly, Dr.B's Trading Views, Stocks (SPY), Gold (GLD), Oil Shares (XLE) etc Options

[DrBubb]

Dashboard - Updated regularly, Dr.B's Trading Views
Stocks (SPY), Gold (GLD), etc
PLEASE DO NOT COMMENT HERE - this is to display and record historical "Dash" views
Comments welcome on: DrBubb's Diary and Dashboard design threads
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TOP POST - This is the most updated version, Older versions are below it. People who want to see the track record, and see how ideas have developed over time, can look below. I would expect to make minor changes more than once a week, and to "save" a dashboard look, a minimum of once per month)

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DR.BUBB'S TRADERS DASHBOARD

US STOCKS
(Favorite chart : SPY at 3-16, and a forward guess) ... SPY-update : SMH-to July'09
What came next? After the early March Low that I called ... SPY-update


+ DrBubb's view, including targets:
(4/20) : And what after that nice 20%+ rally?
I called a short top here after Friday's action. Dead ahead, I see:
Maybe 2-4 weeks correction- that's my current guess..

+ Counter-opinions: (FishingwithJesse / Mar 16 2009, on DrBubb's dairy)
"The five day rally ended on Friday with a "hanging man" candlestick formation. Hanging men are bearish reversal patterns but I caution you that they require confirmation in the form of either a break-away gap down opening or a long red candlestick that closes below Friday's low of 742.46 on heavier volume. / Downside target remains 560-580 for the S&P."
(In favor of the above, the upside volume in SPY etc., has been less than I would like so far. - DrB)


PRECIOUS METALS
(Favorite chart : GLD at 3-16 ) ... GLD-update : GDX-to July'09


+ Bubb's view, including targets:
I think Gold can correct to GOLD-$850 (GLD-84) to fill the Gap down there. If gold jumps above Gold-$945 or so, I am probably wrong. If it drops from here, I expect Gold to be stuck in a trading range out to July-August. Added: "Possible low in Gold on 3-18 near Gold-$880 - but I am still a skeptic." Added (3/25): Larry Pesavento: "Gold's in trouble... If it falls below $920, it could fall much further."
+ Counter-opinions :
(I am looking for an up-to-date, and articulate counter-opinion. Please offer one, or suggest one.)

FX, COMMODITIES & OTHER
(Favorite chart : XLE ) ... XLE-update : OIH-to July'09 : WTI-3yrs : WTI-to-Gold


+ Bubb's view, including targets:
Oil keeps chopping along the bottom, while I await a breakout. I am hoping that stronger share prices will lift XLE, to the upside resistance level. From there, if we are very lucky, rising oil may help. OPEC's failure to cut production will put some downward's pressure on oil stocks into the week beginning March-13.
+ Counter-opinions :
(I am looking for an up-to-date, and articulate counter-opinion. Please offer one, or suggest one.)


CHARTS & LINKS
===========
Chart Links ..... : Oil charts, etc :
DrBubb's Diary : Most recent-March'09 : Feb'09 : Jan'09
DrB's Portfolio. : GEI members only (updates on top)
Next Conf. Call : (Fri/Sat. March) : Next-3/20-3/21? : Podcast of Prior call-3/05
Non-US stocks. : HK-traded stocks : UK-traded stocks : CDNX/Canadian

[DrBubb]

TOP POST - This is the most updated version, Older versions are below it. People who want to see the track record, and see how ideas have developed over time, can look below. I would expect to make minor changes more than once a week, and to "save" a dashboard look, a minimum of once per month)

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A Chart presented on my TURNS thread in mid-february


I also predicted a forthcoming market turn in the #2 Conference Call, recorded March 5th, in this Podcast
the same day that I "bought a ton of stocks" and started the DrBubb Portfolio.

What happened since then:

[DrBubb]

DR.BUBB'S TRADERS DASHBOARD

US STOCKS
(Favorite chart : SPY at 3-16, and a forward guess) ... SPY-update : SMH-to July'09


+ DrBubb's view, including targets:
I think we saw on important Low at the time of the last conference call on March 5th. In my view the market is in the midst of (at least) a substantial Bear market rally, which will take it to the 76d.MA at approximately SPX-830 (SPY-83). From there, I expect a correction, and the shape of that correction may give us a clue as to whether it will go higher still. My most optimistic case (so far) is for a rally to resistance near SPX-1000, lasting out to July-August. If we see all that, then I would expect to be buying gold with my profits in August or so. None of this is guaranteed, and you must consider using stops, and be alert to sudden changes, which I hope will be signalled by volume and momentum.

+ Counter-opinions: (FishingwithJesse / Mar 16 2009, on DrBubb's dairy)
"The five day rally ended on Friday with a "hanging man" candlestick formation. Hanging men are bearish reversal patterns but I caution you that they require confirmation in the form of either a break-away gap down opening or a long red candlestick that closes below Friday's low of 742.46 on heavier volume. / Downside target remains 560-580 for the S&P."
(In favor of the above, the upside volume in SPY etc., has been less than I would like so far. - DrB)


PRECIOUS METALS
(Favorite chart : GLD at 3-16 ) ... GLD-update : GDX-to July'09


+ Bubb's view, including targets:
I think Gold can correct to GOLD-$850 (GLD-84) to fill the Gap down there. If gold jumps above Gold-$945 or so, I am probably wrong. If it drops from here, I expect Gold to be stuck in a trading range out to July-August.
+ Counter-opinions :
(I am looking for an up-to-date, and articulate counter-opinion. Please offer one, or suggest one.)

FX, COMMODITIES & OTHER
(Favorite chart : XLE ) ... XLE-update : OIH-to July'09 : WTI-3yrs : WTI-to-Gold


+ Bubb's view, including targets:
Oil keeps chopping along the bottom, while I await a breakout. I am hoping that stronger share prices will lift XLE, to the upside resistance level. From there, if we are very lucky, rising oil may help. OPEC's failure to cut production will put some downward's pressure on oil stocks into the week beginning March-13.
+ Counter-opinions :
(I am looking for an up-to-date, and articulate counter-opinion. Please offer one, or suggest one.)


CHARTS & LINKS
===========
Chart Links ..... : Oil charts, etc :
DrBubb's Diary : Most recent-March'09 : Feb'09 : Jan'09
DrB's Portfolio. : GEI members only (updates on top)
Next Conf. Call : (Fri/Sat. March) : Next-3/20-3/21? : Podcast of Prior call-3/05
Non-US stocks. : HK-traded stocks : UK-traded stocks : CDNX/Canadian

[DrBubb]

"Possible low in Gold on 3-18 near Gold-$880 - but I am still a skeptic."

My GLD chart worked pretty well in identifying a possible low yesterday,
but I was too busy to trade on it



As Tom Obrien said, there was heavy volume on the new low in GLD, so
"we are going back down there."

I think this was a news driven jump, in a market that has not yet fully corrected.
There's a good chance it will drift back down IMO. Especially if stocks stay strong
and attract money away from precious metals.

[DrBubb]

+ DrBubb's view, including targets:
(3/18) : SPY has now reached my 80-83 target range, and I think that a pullback will start soon, possibly after a high on Friday, as the options expiry. The 76d.MA is approximately SPX-830 (SPY-83), so if it hits that, it will be a good time to lock in profits, by selling or with very tight stops. I still think a rally to resistance near SPX-1000, lasting out to July-August, would be a realistic possibility. When everyone has stopped talking about the "Bear market rally", and instead is saying "the Low has been seen", it will be time to think about buying Puts again. I remain largely net long, but am raising cash to buy into the next dip, possibly next week, with the odd opportunity sooner.

[Pixel8r]

PRECIOUS METALS
(Favorite chart : GLD at 3-16 ) ... GLD-update : GDX-to July'09


+ Bubb's view, including targets:
I think Gold can correct to GOLD-$850 (GLD-84) to fill the Gap down there. If gold jumps above Gold-$945 or so, I am probably wrong. If it drops from here, I expect Gold to be stuck in a trading range out to July-August.
+ Counter-opinions :
(I am looking for an up-to-date, and articulate counter-opinion. Please offer one, or suggest one.)

The fed started QE yesterday, that is why the dollar fell like a rock and gold bounced vertical. I don't believe that this is just a temporary bounce, when Britain started the QE the pound took a hammering and now the dollar will do the same. USDX I think will be going down to retest .72, it appears to be a trade war with who can devalue their currency the quickest. Too many people have gold, too many people have dollars more like it, trillions and trillions of fresh ones.

So how can it mean gold goes down when all currencies are devaluing via QE? Surely the usual seasonal patterns are now not going to be causing the same effect due to all the money being printed. Stocks should be bouncing with QE, money is becoming less valuable so companies products become more expensive in devalued currency, hence companies are valued at more, but it is only priced in a devalued currency not gold.

[DrBubb]

...it feels alot like that big news-driven move in Gold/GLD last week.

Gold/GLD has now retraced some of those big gains ... update


I would expect stocks to at least retrace into today's opening gap, and possibly lower. I did not
buy any GLD or gold shares. My GLD-$92 target was hit at the end of the trading day, when
I was sleeping.

If GLD opens with a push down on Tuesday, it could retest GLD-90 or lower. But if it can hold
the closing level, then I may step into the market.

Larry Pesavento: "Gold's in trouble."

"If it falls below $920, it could fall much further."
"Too many people are loaded up with gold, expecting the end of the world."
"The 'Buy level' could be (as lows as) $700."

L. Pesavento's podcasts : http://www.tfnn.com/interview_archives.php

GOLD SHARES / GDX

This certainly doesnt look like a chart that is about to vault higher: ... update


Instead, a pullback into the gap, or a bigger slide would be my expectation

[Mr P]

Instead, a pullback into the gap, or a bigger slide would be my expectation

You going to lighten up/set stops on your pm stocks then, Dr B?

[DrBubb]

You going to lighten up/set stops on your pm stocks then, Dr B?

I have been lightening up for weeks.
I still have several Juniors in my account, with sell targets at various levels.

My short term portfolio is now HEAVILY into cash

[DrBubb]

LAST SIX MONTHS, SPY Cyclical indicator ... update



(3/27) : The early Feb. cycle peak was C7. I am now expecting cycle peak C8 to click into place within the next few days. Larry Pesavento (over on TFNN.com) is talking about a "triple combust" cyclical turn either Today (Friday) or Monday. This is coinciding with the notional top in my own 25-30 trading days cycle, and so I have been raising cash rather aggressively, and also putting some Put options into my portfolio. I also note that the SPX is just over its 76d.MAY at near SPX-327.

== ==

Above was also posted on the Short Stock Cycles thread:
http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6341

[DrBubb]

(From the HPC thread - Winning takes courage -
where you can find the useless HPC village idiots making their usual abusive comments.)

TOO MUCH BEARISH NESS ?

What came next? After the early March Low that I called ... SPY-update


And what after that nice 20%+ rally?
I called a short top here after Friday's action. Dead ahead, I see:

Maybe 2-4 weeks correction- that's my current guess.

Watch the Short Term cycles on : HPC & GEI
To stay ahead of the game

[DrBubb]

(I sent this email to some traders friends today):

IMPORTANT FIRST HOUR of Trading on Wall Street today?

I dont know if you have any interest in Elliott Waves?

If so, the first hour or so of trading today, may tell us something important:
Is the rally over, and a big slide about to begin?, or :
Do we have one more wave up, to SPX-1107 or maybe SPX-1121?

This is being debated by me (as Nathan D.R.Bubb) with the founder of the Yelnick website, who is a respected Ellliott wave expert and trader.

If you are interested, here's a link to the discussion:
http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/11...o.html#comments

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