55 replies to this topic

[DrBubb]

.
Conf. Call #3: Topic : Are we about to see a Major Low in UK Housing ?

Description of Previous Call: "The Case for an early March Low in Stocks" (Held: 5. March, 2009)
GEI Conference call #2 examined the case for an early March low in stocks.  Michael Hampton ("DrBubb") hosted, and gave his case for expecting a pullback in gold stocks and a near term low, followed by a big rally in global stock indices.  Comparisons were drawn with lows in 1974-75, and the point of the "big breakout" in late 1996, when Fed chairman, Greenspan, threw caution to the winds, and lightened up regulations for banks, touching off a speculative boom which lasted  a decade.  The world will take a long time to clean up the mess from massive expansion of credit, a dotcom bubble, a housing bubble, and the resulting crash.

GEI members from around the globe contributed their comments and questions.

5th March 2009 Call LISTEN: http://globaledge.podbean.com/ (67 downloads at 25 March)
Charts for above : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6075

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::::
NEXT Call: April 3rd or 4th

3rd GEI Conference Call : The First week in April?

Topic: Are we about to see a Major Low in UK Housing ?

=============================================

Skype Forum POLL: http://forum.skype.com/index.php?showtopic=296891

Many investors and would-be FTB-ers have been hoping that they will see "The Low" soon, as lower rates, and government-mandated lending could make it easier for buyers to get the finance they want.  Also, Builders stocks may soon show an upward break of the downtrend.  These may signal a Low for some.  But will it be "The Low", or just a dangerous dead act bounce?  

Let's Talk about the reasons why this bounce is likely to be a "Fool's Rally."

Nationwide's Index of UK Housing, showing paek in October 2007


Ratio : UK Housing Index (Nationwide) to FTSE ...


Shall we discuss the prospects for a UK House Price Low, in the 3rd GEI conference call?

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Links to Threads on:
Call #1: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5973
Call #2: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6075

Clones:
HPC= :
GHPC : http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...showtopic=48566

[Cuthbert Calculus]

7.30 am suits me.

Do you see a low in UK housing coming soon?

[DrBubb]

7.30 am suits me.
Do you see a low in UK housing coming soon?

Top Choices:
Next week Friday....: 7:30 am, London time, or
Next week Saturday: 9:30 am, London time,

I am hoping for a much larger participation, especially if we move it to Saturday.

Do I expect a low?  Answer: I am expecting a decent bounce in UK Property, which will fool many people
into thinking that they are seeing the low.  But I have several reasons for thinking that it would be a dangerous
"dead cat bounce", that could be very dangerous for one's wealth.  Many will get sucked in, I fear.

=== CHARTS =====

C# 1 : UK House prices ran ahead of trend... again


C# 2 : Housing is a Cyclical market

/see: http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform...-wadsworth.html

C# 3 : 18 year Cycles go back a long way


Peaks in Property
UK:
2007
1989 -18
1973 -16 (1948 +18= 1966, stretched by WW2)
1948 -25
USA:
1946 (2 years before the UK)
1926 -20
1905 -21
1887 -18
1871 -16



C# 4 : The Pattern show the 18 year Cycle peak is in place


C# 5 : The peak was preceeded by a top in Builder stocks 9 months earlier ... Spline's website


Most representative share price = Barratt Development (BDEV.L) ... update
xxx

C# 6 :
In an parallel attempt to decipher the cyclical influences I have put the Nationwide Quarterly data
on a Logarithmic scale, so it is easier to see dips in a long term context.


Raw Data source: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/HPI/downloads/..._since_1952.xls

Over this period (1952 to 2008) Prices rose from Pds.1,891 to a Pds.184,131 peak in Q3.2007.
The latest price for Nationwide "All Houses (UK)" was Pds.174,514 for Q2.2008

Low Points:
L#1: Qx.1957 (- n/a -): 3.268 : Pds. 1,853
L#2: Q4.1968 (+56 q): 3.650 : Pds. 4,089
L#3: Q4.1981 (+52 q): 4.377 : Pds 31,557
L#4: Q4.1995 (+56 q): 4.707 : Pds 50,930
L#5: Q4.2008 (+52 q): 5.10E: Pds.126,000 (a fall of 31.6% from 184,131 high in Q3.2007)
L#6: Qx.2022 (+56 q):

Interestingly, this provides a different cycle (of 13-14 years between lows) and different future low points than Harrison's work.
The projected Low of Pds.126,000 in Q4.2008 is only a guess based on trendlines.  The timing assumes 13 years (52 quarters) from the prior low of Q4.1995.

The important long term trendline is near Pds.170,000 in Q3.2008. That is less than  a 10% fall from the Quarterly high, and has been broken already, I believe, if we used July prices.

It is possible that we may see an "early" low in 2010-11, a brief "inflationary bounce" as Catflap has described and then the 7-year mini-recession may come along with the 13-14 year cycle low that I have described here.  

We will have to watch carefully what measures the government takes to prop up a rapidly deflating property bubble.


IMPORTANCE OF THE BUY-TO-LET BRIGADE

C# 7 : Winners Curse prices rises were driven by the BTL brigade, pushing yields below 4%

..
Different Ratios, based on different statistics?


C# 8 : Wise-up BTL-ers, it's over now

You boys (and girls) are losing cred every day

/see: http://ukhousebubble.blogspot.com/search/l...-income%20ratio

  = = = = =


C# ? : YOU GOT IT WRONG, if you bet on a 16 year Cycle in the UK



C # ? : But later, using the Builder Bellwether Index, I nailed the top in July 2007



"Affordability is extremely stretched. Traditionally, it was FTBers who kept the property game alive. In the past, they would account for 25-30% of property purchases. But as prices rose out of sight, with an approximate 10% rise in the past 12 months, after almost tripling in the decade before, most potential FTBers can simply not afford the prices anymore. Their share of property purchases has now fallen below 10% of property sales. Meantime, investors and the super-rich have stepped in and bought with enthusiasm. And high-end properties favored by the super-rich have risen much more than middle tier and cheaper properties. Some observers estimate that top properties in areas like Kensington and Chelsea are up over 30% in a year.

Incomes have not kept pace...

Hometrack announced in the past few days that the number of properties on offer in London has suddenly jumped by 10.9 percent in June, as compared with May. That is the biggest single month rise since January 2005, when the big jump in supply triggered a pause of more than six months in the property market. Another indicator that I particularly like is the price of traded Builder shares. Normally, this will lead the market by perhaps six months. In the USA, the builders gave a great early warning (almost a year ahead) that the US property market was peaking. They may be doing something similar now in the UK. The average builder stock peaked around the turn of the year, and is now down about 25-30%.

A similar drop was a good warning in the US. This suggests that UK prices may be peaking out this summer, even in London, where the market had been so hot through the spring."

/see: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2007/0705.html

[Cuthbert Calculus]

That's kind of what I'm thinking, as you will see with this morning's Money Morning. I'll post a link when it's up.

[DrBubb]

That's kind of what I'm thinking, as you will see with this morning's Money Morning. I'll post a link when it's up.

I had an old description of the last call, and changed it to this:

"Many investors and would-be FTB-ers have been hoping that they will see "The Low" soon, as lower rates, and government-mandated lending could make it easier for buyers to get the finance they want.  Also, Builders stocks may soon show an upward break of the downtrend.  These may signal a Low for some.  But will it be "The Low", or just a dangerous dead act bounce?  

Let's Talk about the reasons why this bounce is likely to be a "Fool's Rally."

Sorry about the confusion.

== == == == ==

THE US PROPERTY CYCLE - 18 1/3 Years

My chart from just off the Peak


As updated: Weekly Centex (CTX) ... Monthly update-since 1970 : Monthly-since 1992


Weekly Centex (CTX) ... Weekly-Last 5yrs :


Compare: UK's Barratt Developments (BDEV.L) ... update


Centex (CTX) ... Daily-Last 3years : Daily-Last 12 mos.


Historical Low - Late 2004

Centex Corp. / Friday, Nov. 25, 1994
Closing Price: 20.125 / Open: 20.375, Hi: 20.375, Lo: 20.125  
Split Adjust.: $4.484 /

2009's Low :
Thursday, March 05, 2009
Closing Price: 5.47  / Open: 5.17, High: 5.57,  Low: 5.03  

Related, charts on US versus UK : a 17 month lag

== == ==
Kathy Fettke Podcast : Using More stable "Income properties" to beat cycles
My YouTube podcast : Nailing the 2007 high in the UK

[Cuthbert Calculus]

Here you go:

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/prope...hart-14664.aspx

I think we're singing off the same sheet

[pyewackitt]

Hi Bubb/Frizzers,

Good article there Dom!

Couple of points i raised in my post a few weeks back:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....amp;#entry98894

1) There is an affordability trap appeared as rents are falling but not as fast as house prices thus making them seem more affordable
2) We are entering the 6 month period where the bull trap occurred in the last UK housing crash
3) UK rental market is 'flooded' (bbc news's word) with homes that people don't want to sell and even a small change on the upside of property pricing would make the sales market equally flooded and precipitate the next downturn towards capitulation

[Cuthbert Calculus]

Yes. In fact it was from your post that I got the idea of the last 91 bull trap. Thank you

[Pixel8r]

Hi Bubb/Frizzers,

Good article there Dom!

Couple of points i raised in my post a few weeks back:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....amp;#entry98894

1) There is an affordability trap appeared as rents are falling but not as fast as house prices thus making them seem more affordable
2) We are entering the 6 month period where the bull trap occurred in the last UK housing crash
3) UK rental market is 'flooded' (bbc news's word) with homes that people don't want to sell and even a small change on the upside of property pricing would make the sales market equally flooded and precipitate the next downturn towards capitulation

Well done pyewackitt for your observation, I think you are spot on and great timely article Dominic. GEI is turning into a great place to be  

[dees]

Dr Bubb, re timing of the conference call, I think a Friday may be a good shot.  I am based in Hong Kong and Saturday 9.30 am makes it 17.30 HK time.  Am willing try that, but it generally is hard to plan a Saturday late afternoon.   Anyway, let me know.  The last conference call was very good, so I do not want to miss the next one.

[dees]

By the way, I was wondering if it makes sense to show posts in reverse order, i.e. show the most recent one at the top (maybe after the "pinned" one which contains the agenda.  When a topic gets a lot of posts (eg "Dr Bubb's Trading Diary") one needs to scroll several pages to get to the most recent posts.  It seems more logical to show the most recent posts first.  What do you think?

[DrBubb]

Hi Bubb/Frizzers,

Good article there Dom!

Couple of points i raised in my post a few weeks back:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....amp;#entry98894

1) There is an affordability trap appeared as rents are falling but not as fast as house prices thus making them seem more affordable
2) We are entering the 6 month period where the bull trap occurred in the last UK housing crash
3) UK rental market is 'flooded' (bbc news's word) with homes that people don't want to sell and even a small change on the upside of property pricing would make the sales market equally flooded and precipitate the next downturn towards capitulation

Excellent points, Pye.
I hope you can join the call.  I want to put that "bull trap" idea together with my look at UK Builder charts

Here's top UK bellwether : Barratt Developments (BDEV) .... update


What could happen with Barratt : St.Joe -- (JOE) ... update


PIcking up a point from Dominic's article:

"I am detecting a certain amount of bullishness in the housing market of late. A number of people with cash are talking about "buying later this year", or "taking advantage of these low rates".

A gent I met at a drinks party at the weekend was very keen on a property in Kensington because it was down from £3 million to one and a half. Foreigners, we are told, are taking advantage of the falling pound to buy prime Central London property."

Even more, take into consideration the drop in Sterling (FXB) .. update
xx

So if you start with... and compare:

Peak Value : Pds. 3,000,000 x $2.00 = $6.00 Million
Current..... : Pds. 1,500,000 x $1.38 = $2.07 Million / drop: - 65.5% enough to attract buying?

[Drunken Tiger]

Great thread. Anyone got any thoughts as to how long the dead cat bounce might take to play out, and for crash cruising speed to be resumed? 3-6 months?

[DrBubb]

Dr Bubb, re timing of the conference call, I think a Friday may be a good shot.  I am based in Hong Kong and Saturday 9.30 am makes it 17.30 HK time.  Am willing try that, but it generally is hard to plan a Saturday late afternoon.   Anyway, let me know.  The last conference call was very good, so I do not want to miss the next one.

Good to hear that, Dees.
Are you interested in UK property also?

[sideshow]

I listened to the call today. It was a very interesting listen indeed. Thanks for all of the time and effort you have put in developing this site.

I would be very interested in hearing your opinions on UK housing and FXB, or Sterling in general.

I doubt I could make a call due to the time difference but perhaps if you pin instructions on how to join a GEI conference call somewhere I could dial in if I am up or at a computer then. I use Vonage rather than Skype so pinned instructions on how to join call might be useful for future reference.

[marmite]

I listened to the call today. It was a very interesting listen indeed. Thanks for all of the time and effort you have put in developing this site.

I would be very interested in hearing your opinions on UK housing and FXB, or Sterling in general.

I doubt I could make a call due to the time difference but perhaps if you pin instructions on how to join a GEI conference call somewhere I could dial in if I am up or at a computer then. I use Vonage rather than Skype so pinned instructions on how to join call might be useful for future reference.

Excellent work guys, listened to the podcast.

Can i add my thanks as well for all your time and effort.

I will try to make the time to join a call in the future.

[DrBubb]

I doubt I could make a call due to the time difference but perhaps if you pin instructions on how to join a GEI conference call somewhere I could dial in if I am up or at a computer then. I use Vonage rather than Skype so pinned instructions on how to join call might be useful for future reference.

It is free to join Skype, so why not do it?
You will have to do a search for "energyi", and the add me as a contact.
Send a message, and I will reply, then you will be set up as a confirmed contact, and I will be able
to add you onto the call.  Please do this now, or sometime well before the call, because while the call
is on, I will be too busy coping with logistics and speaking to look for new people to add.

BTW, We are talking Friday/Saturday NEXT WEEK, not this week

[OneHundred]

I cannot join the call, so here's my contribution.
I agree with much of this, BTW
==============================

House prices 'could fall by further 55 per cent'
House prices may fall by a further 55 percent and there is a "very real probability" that Britain will be bankrupted, a leading investment bank has warned in a private note to clients.

By Robert Winnett, Deputy Political Editor  / 11 Mar 2009

People who bought buy-to-let flats are expected to “begin panic selling” and the average home value could drop below £100,000.

The predictions in a 298-page report from Numis Securities, a City investment bank, are the bleakest yet on the deteriorating state of the British property market.

House prices have already fallen by about 20 per cent over the past year.

However, in the note written last month, Numis said: “Despite UK house prices already having fallen 21% from the peak, we do not believe that the correction is anywhere near over.

“Our core headline forecast is that UK property prices remain between 17% and 39% overvalued based on fair valuation. Moreover, history has shown us that when property…which has experienced a price bubble corrects, the price tends to fall below fair value for a period of time, as confidence in that market remains low. Prices could fall a further 40-55% if the over-correction was as bad as the early 1990s in our view.”

The report warns that “city centre flats” and “new executive homes” are likely to record the biggest reductions and describes investing in buy-to-let property as a “poor man’s hedge fund”.

“It is the action of these amateur investors over the next few months which we are most concerned about,” the report says. “We expect some to begin panic selling their portfolios, with the peak volume as is almost always the case with private investors, being at the market trough.”

Yesterday, Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, warned that the world is facing the most difficult economic conditions for “generations”.

However, the Numis report is scathing of Government attempts to help the economy.

“The Prime Minister and Chancellor have publicly stated that they want banks this year to lend at 2007 levels,” it said. “We think this is a crazy policy, given that too much debt was one of the prime reasons why the economy has its current problems.”

It also criticises the huge debts being run up by the Government to pump money into the economy. Yesterday, John Lewis, the retailer, said that the £12.5 billion cut in Vat has not made “any long term difference at all”.

The Numis report says: “The bankruptcy of the UK is a very real probability as the UK Government is trying to stimulate a greater debt burden in a grossly indebted economy. We believe the scale of the macro imbalances in the UK means there is no prospect of a recovery in 2009 and we expect the UK to be mired in a deep recession through all of 2010.”

[dees]

Good to hear that, Dees.
Are you interested in UK property also?

UK property is not high on my list as I have little to do with it, and have not previously followed it.  But it is a component of the larger market, and could therefore be interesting if that is the topic that will be discussed (and if that is what the majority wants to be discussed).

[pyewackitt]

Interesting article here suggest perhaps further 55% falls in UK property:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...5-per-cent.html

People who bought buy-to-let flats are expected to “begin panic selling” and the average home value could drop below £100,000.

The predictions in a 298-page report from Numis Securities, a City investment bank, are the bleakest yet on the deteriorating state of the British property market.

“Our core headline forecast is that UK property prices remain between 17% and 39% overvalued based on fair valuation. Moreover, history has shown us that when property…which has experienced a price bubble corrects, the price tends to fall below fair value for a period of time, as confidence in that market remains low. Prices could fall a further 40-55% if the over-correction was as bad as the early 1990s in our view.”

Regarding the next conference call i think it's perhaps worth considering a segment on the immediate future of the Euro. There seems to be a lot of potential negative influences on what happens to the Euro next and we all know that the complexities of managing a currency across so many borders makes the ECB's job the hardest of any of the central banks.