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Gold/silver miners: the blood in the streets is knee-deep


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#1 G0ldfinger

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Posted 03 November 2008 - 10:14 PM

As posted on the gold thread:

I think it's time for me to start buying gold & silver shares. The blood in the street is knee-deep, so to speak. I know, it could get even deeper. But knee-deep is pretty good for me.

So, as a bullion-only buyer so far, with not much knowledge about mining shares, here is what I want to do:

(1) I only want to consider (almost-) producers, no pure exploration games.
(2) I want them to operate in mostly geopolitically safe areas.
(3) I want them to have low costs per ounce, with a good buffer against falling prices, and good reserves/resources.
(4) I want them to be cheap per ounce in the ground.
(5) I want them to be profitable, with cash at hand, and not at the mercy of the banksters.
(6) Optimally, I want to be able to put them in an ISA.

One idea of mine was to have a look at Puplava's portfolio and pick a few that I like.

A few names that I have in the back of my head, but haven't researched them in any detail so don't really know if they fit my above profile:
- Yamana
- Silver Standard Resources
- Minefinders
- ...

I'm possibly outing myself as totally clueless/naive here. smile.gif

Happy about any recommendations (of other threads/posts as well). Thanks also to Cuthbert who has given me some advice already.
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
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#2 Cuthbert Calculus

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Posted 03 November 2008 - 10:21 PM

Either buy GDX which is the ETF that follows the HUI - then you don't have to stock pick


If you want some juniors, look at Capital Gold - producing at $242 per ounce in Mexico, c50,000 ounces per year, if it does 50,000 ounces it's market cap is just twice it's annual profit


US:CGLD , CA:CGC


Buy below 30c

Or look at US:GORO


Gold Resource Corp


Will be producing by early next year , fully cashed up though he wants a major to buy a stake , cash cost of 0 by the time you offset other metsl production, bonanza grade after bonanza grade, could be producing 200,000 ounces by 09 - at $800 gold that 160, 000, 000 of cash flow. Market cap of about 80 million.


If you want a silver producer look at First Majestic (CA:FR)


Buy GORO beneat 2.50 if you can


Only risk money you can afford to lose etec etc

#3 gwizzie

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Posted 03 November 2008 - 11:06 PM

i Have been buying BRR and VGM over the past couple of weeks. My average price is pretty good and if it were not for the crap spreads they would be very tradeable. There is an RNS due out any day now on VGM which will determine whether its a keeper or not. BRR has been abolutely hammered this year, plenty of blood there
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#4 AceofKY

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Posted 04 November 2008 - 12:23 AM

1. Good pick with Minefinders
2. I concur strongly with Frizzers (I'm having trouble with the new name) on GORO; it is my largest holding
3. I like Hecla better than First Majestic here. They have better assets IMO and lower production costs (although you will see their cash costs go up due to the base metal credits). First Majestic has been executing well and it is on my watchlist, but I'm waiting to see if they can convert all that drilling they've been doing into mineable resource. They really need some more reserves.
4. I like Silverstone here too, and I think the forthcoming bad news of Aljustral shutting down is probably already priced in. Same business model as SLW.
5. Fronteer (FRG) is another I've been buying; they're more of a pure explorer but they have huge cash on hand (~$84MM) and the burn rate is probably only $15-20MM/yr. EXCELLENT assets that are extremely undervalued right now. It is starting to look more and more like they've found another big gold trend in Nevada (Long Canyon) separate from Carlin & Cortez.

Pretty much everything is cheap right now.



#5 G0ldfinger

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Posted 04 November 2008 - 10:00 PM

I've just listened to yesterday's KER. Eastmain resources: Quebec, $20mio cash, 1mio oz deposit, $6.80/oz costs (yes, the gold is for free), IIRC.

Why, BTW, is Al Korelin NEVER owning any of the stocks he's discussing? unsure.gif

EDIT: Another thing, I haven't a share dealing account yet (yes, yes, I know smile.gif ). HSBC makes buying in America possible. Any other tips?
I don't want the banksters to short my shares. I also really want to own them. sad.gif That's not really possible nowadays, is it?
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
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Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#6 Pixel8r

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Posted 04 November 2008 - 10:45 PM

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Nov 4 2008, 10:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
EDIT: Another thing, I haven't a share dealing account yet (yes, yes, I know smile.gif ). HSBC makes buying in America possible. Any other tips?
I don't want the banksters to short my shares. I also really want to own them. sad.gif That's not really possible nowadays, is it?


Try TDWaterhouse, gives you access to the Canadian TSE/TSX and US market. You can buy through them and take delivery of share certificates, £25 per certificate I believe.



#7 G0ldfinger

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Posted 04 November 2008 - 11:47 PM

QUOTE (Pixel8r @ Nov 4 2008, 10:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Try TDWaterhouse, gives you access to the Canadian TSE/TSX and US market. You can buy through them and take delivery of share certificates, £25 per certificate I believe.

Cheers!
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#8 GTG

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 05:36 AM

You can get share certificates through Hargreaves Lansdowne, Stocktrade.com do crest accounts but not sure if you can buy on TSX/TSE.

I had a poor overall experience with T D Waterhouse and one point you should keep in mind is their 1.5% exchange rate charge on equities quoted on foreign exchanges. There is however a facility to keep cash balances in euros, US and canadian dollars (other than in an ISA account). Apparently you can better a better exchange rate the more you change up but I don't think this is published anywhere on the site, I did n't stick around long enough to find out.

You might like to take a look here http://www.greenener.......c=4371&st=0 before appointing a broker.
The entire modern financial system is based upon a very small group of people having the power to create money out of thin air.

#9 chazza

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 11:17 AM

QUOTE (GTG @ Nov 5 2008, 06:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You can get share certificates through Hargreaves Lansdowne, Stocktrade.com do crest accounts but not sure if you can buy on TSX/TSE.

I had a poor overall experience with T D Waterhouse and one point you should keep in mind is their 1.5% exchange rate charge on equities quoted on foreign exchanges. There is however a facility to keep cash balances in euros, US and canadian dollars (other than in an ISA account). Apparently you can better a better exchange rate the more you change up but I don't think this is published anywhere on the site, I did n't stick around long enough to find out.

You might like to take a look here http://www.greenener.......c=4371&st=0 before appointing a broker.


Apparently you are able to transfer in foreign currency, not that I have tried it yet.

So if you have a resonable sum, you can exchange it through an independant FX broker at spot +0.5%. And a feel a bit smug that you have clawed back some money from TD.
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#10 marmite

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 11:45 AM

QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Nov 3 2008, 10:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Either buy GDX which is the ETF that follows the HUI - then you don't have to stock pick


Hi Cuthbert Calculus,

Do you have any other info on GDX, im trying to track down a fact sheet etc online ??

Is this the only ETF that follows the HUI ??? What about the XAU ????

Thanks smile.gif


#11 marmite

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 11:46 AM

QUOTE (Pixel8r @ Nov 4 2008, 10:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Try TDWaterhouse, gives you access to the Canadian TSE/TSX and US market. You can buy through them and take delivery of share certificates, £25 per certificate I believe.



I can recommend tdwaterhouse, always found them to very professional / knowledgeable when you phone them and there online trading website works fine.

#12 G0ldfinger

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 12:19 PM

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Nov 4 2008, 10:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I've just listened to yesterday's KER. Eastmain resources: Quebec, $20mio cash, 1mio oz deposit, $6.80/oz costs (yes, the gold is for free), IIRC.

Why, BTW, is Al Korelin NEVER owning any of the stocks he's discussing? unsure.gif
...

Any comments?
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#13 G0ldfinger

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 12:51 PM

What is Al doing here (at 1:00)?? laugh.gif


You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#14 Andrewfrog

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 01:33 PM

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Nov 5 2008, 12:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Any comments?


A cynical view is expressed here

http://www.stockhous...a...mp;pd=0&r=0

He's certainly highly conscious, given his role as a 'regulatory consultant', of possible claims of impartiality etc

The KE website says "No guest ever pays a fee to appear on The Korelin Economics Report, and radio stations are not paid to air it. Our revenues are derived from copyright fees for commercial re-use of archived interviews, and advertising on the radio and website. This advertising-based business model preserves impartiality in reporting on promising companies and important economic debates. Certain content on this website including video and audio have been paid for in terms of production costs. This information is always disclosed along with the video or audio and in the attached disclosure." However I have heard interviews on the show with representatives from companies who have adverts on his website, or have sponsored segments of show, such as Geodex Minerals

I think his heart's in the right place, and he often has good guests on the show, but wouldn't take too much account of anything he says personally, as I'm not sure he's an intellectual heavyweight - also I've noted he often expresses his agreement with the views of whoever he's interviewing, even when they are completely inconsistent views on topics such as future prospects for equities or PMs, inflation/deflation, or the imminent end of the world as we know it.

#15 Quark

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 12:35 AM

QUOTE (marmite @ Nov 5 2008, 11:45 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Hi Cuthbert Calculus,

Do you have any other info on GDX, im trying to track down a fact sheet etc online ??

Is this the only ETF that follows the HUI ??? What about the XAU ????

Thanks smile.gif



Market Vectors GDX (similar to an ishare)


http://www.vaneck.co...a...GDX&LN=3_02


(Ps Blackrock Gold and General fund has continually outperformed the GDX/HUI index)

HUI index here http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EHUI


#16 marmite

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 07:39 AM

QUOTE (Quark @ Nov 6 2008, 12:35 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Market Vectors GDX (similar to an ishare)


http://www.vaneck.co...a...GDX&LN=3_02


(Ps Blackrock Gold and General fund has continually outperformed the GDX/HUI index)

HUI index here http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EHUI


Cheers Quark smile.gif


#17 G0ldfinger

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 02:05 PM

QUOTE (Andrewfrog @ Nov 5 2008, 01:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
...
I think his heart's in the right place, and he often has good guests on the show, but wouldn't take too much account of anything he says personally, as I'm not sure he's an intellectual heavyweight - also I've noted he often expresses his agreement with the views of whoever he's interviewing, even when they are completely inconsistent views on topics such as future prospects for equities or PMs, inflation/deflation, or the imminent end of the world as we know it.

I think that pretty much sums up what I think as well. I do think that some of the companies presented are extremely good. But AK has no strong personal views. What I find very strange is that he does not own a single company he presents about. Does he think they're crap? Or maybe his wife owns them all? In fact, there was one exception where he admitted that he had some stock. He usually is also quite frank about the video-stuff and filing they're doing for the portraited firms.
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#18 georgethefourth

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Posted 08 November 2008 - 02:32 PM

id recommend galantas gold, EPIC GAL. its based in omagh, ireland and its dual listed on the tsx so is eligible for an ISA. its currently producing after around a year of start up problems and is releasing its next set of results at the end of this month. it released a trading update last month stating greatly improved production rates and the purchase of 70% extra equipment. also stated it expects annualised production to hit 20,000oz by this set of results. at £475 POG and low costs this would bring in around £5million pretax profits. ramp up in production expected to continue to at least 30,000, and theyve got a jewellery line selling authentic irish gold which theyll devote more attention to once production ramped up. current market cap values company at <£5million. ridiculously cheap. theres a good thread on advfn on the company id recommend reading if youre interested

#19 DrBubb

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Posted 09 November 2008 - 04:54 AM

Take a look at Silver Wheaton (SLW)- silver, rather than gold
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#20 G0ldfinger

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Posted 11 November 2008 - 12:19 AM

Thanks everyone so far. I haven't yet signed up with any brokerage, but my plan is to do so soon. I might even do a little oil speculation if the price stays like this or goes down more. I am also very interested in how the COMEX will do towards the end of the month. Jim Sinclair is beating the drum for taking delivery. smile.gif
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.



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