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The Death Cross - is this the kickoff to 2nd Great Depression?


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#1 cgnao

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Posted 13 October 2008 - 06:34 PM

Original title : The Death Cross

Don´t be fooled.


The Mad Hatter: Have I gone mad?
Alice Kingsley: I'm afraid so. You're entirely bonkers. But I'll tell you a secret. All the best people are.

#2 Fence

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Posted 13 October 2008 - 07:04 PM

The lady lifted her skirt so I took some. But I never said I would marry her!




#3 John Doe

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Posted 13 October 2008 - 07:10 PM

QUOTE (Fence @ Oct 13 2008, 08:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The lady lifted her skirt so I took some. But I never said I would marry her!

Class laugh.gif
Me too, but she was no lady rolleyes.gif
"Hey - don't worry, don't be afraid, ever, because, this is just a ride..." Bill Hicks

Just as I start getting my head together, my body starts falling apart (anon).

#4 id5

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Posted 13 October 2008 - 07:45 PM

QUOTE (John Doe @ Oct 13 2008, 08:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Class laugh.gif
Me too, but she was no lady rolleyes.gif


I hope that it wasn't a scot in a kilt laugh.gif
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. - John Maynard Keynes

I must remember that investing is a marathon and not a sprint!

#5 narco

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Posted 13 October 2008 - 08:20 PM

The DOW posts its biggest % gain since 1932. Just look at the dates below and you'll sure feel comforted about today's rally. laugh.gif unsure.gif

Greatest DJIA Daily % Gains of All-Time

Rank Date Close Net Chg % Chg
1 15.03.1933 62,10 +8,26 +15,34
2 06.10.1931 99,34 +12,86 +14,87
3 30.10.1929 258,47 +28,40 +12,34
4 21.09.1932 75,16 +7,67 +11,36
5 21.10.1987 2.027,85 +186,84 +10,15
6 03.08.1932 58,22 +5,06 +9,52
7 11.02.1932 78,60 +6,80 +9,47
8 14.11.1929 217,28 +18,59 +9,36
9 18.12.1931 80,69 +6,90 +9,35
10 13.02.1932 85,82 +7,22 +9,19


"The Fed "sprays" $180 billion around the world, but markets sell off anyway" -- Bloomberg, Sept 08

#6 lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)

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Posted 13 October 2008 - 09:21 PM

QUOTE (narco @ Oct 13 2008, 09:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The DOW posts its biggest % gain since 1932. Just look at the dates below and you'll sure feel comforted about today's rally. laugh.gif unsure.gif

Greatest DJIA Daily % Gains of All-Time

Rank Date Close Net Chg % Chg
1 15.03.1933 62,10 +8,26 +15,34
2 06.10.1931 99,34 +12,86 +14,87
3 30.10.1929 258,47 +28,40 +12,34
4 21.09.1932 75,16 +7,67 +11,36
5 21.10.1987 2.027,85 +186,84 +10,15
6 03.08.1932 58,22 +5,06 +9,52
7 11.02.1932 78,60 +6,80 +9,47
8 14.11.1929 217,28 +18,59 +9,36
9 18.12.1931 80,69 +6,90 +9,35
10 13.02.1932 85,82 +7,22 +9,19



Ah but they didnt have as many tools to debase the currency back then

got to be honest at the moment though - i am unsure if they are acting fast enough to reflate - and if they act too fast its hyperinflation

that ball at the top of the hill that Goldfinger posted comes to mind

QUOTE
"You have to choose, as a voter, between trusting to the national stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of governments. I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

George Bernard Shaw


QUOTE
The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin . . . . Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. . . . Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. . . . But, if you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit.

Sir Josiah Stamp, director of the Bank of England and the second richest man in Britain in the 1920s

#7 Mr P

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Posted 13 October 2008 - 10:18 PM

John Authers on the bounce: http://www.ft.com/cm...mp;fromSearch=n


#8 John Doe

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Posted 13 October 2008 - 10:53 PM

QUOTE (id5 @ Oct 13 2008, 08:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I hope that it wasn't a scot in a kilt laugh.gif

Definitely female, and definitely not Scottish (the Scotts didn’t seem a good bet today) rolleyes.gif
"Hey - don't worry, don't be afraid, ever, because, this is just a ride..." Bill Hicks

Just as I start getting my head together, my body starts falling apart (anon).

#9 G0ldfinger

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Posted 13 October 2008 - 11:16 PM

QUOTE (Mr Pipples @ Oct 13 2008, 11:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
John Authers on the bounce: http://www.ft.com/cm...mp;fromSearch=n

Brilliant comment really. While it was impressive, this bounce means next to nothing.
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
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#10 Dispassion

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Posted 13 October 2008 - 11:33 PM

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Oct 14 2008, 12:16 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Brilliant comment really. While it was impressive, this bounce means next to nothing.


Exactly, traders were looking for a catalyst for a bounce, it'll take a lot more than this to convince me that this is the bottom.
"To be attached to a certain view and to look down upon others' views as inferior - this the wise men call a fetter." Sutta Nipata 798

#11 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 12:52 AM

My questions are:

1. How high will it bounce ?

2. How long will it take ? Am I silly watching it today waiting to see if it hits a top ?

3. Has anyone noticed the sheer rate of increase of the EURJPY ? Am I the only one that thinks markets that go up that quickly, end up hitting a brick wall and coming down mighty fast ?

Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

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#12 DrBubb

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 12:56 AM

how big a bounce? how long?

those are the questions i will be contemplating

SPX-1060 is likely, and SPX-1200 is a remote possbility

==

Nice chart, Narco.
I think I may fiddle with the title here, to encourage some more long term thinking

Look at how they walked it down...



Why the 1929-32 pattern may not repeat:

+ The Crash of that time is buried in people's memories (especially Ben Bernanke's),
and they are keen not to repeat it

+ The banks got scared and started withdrawing credit, and the government stood back
and let the free market operate

+ The Dollar was linked to gold and was a creditor nation. Now there is no gold link, and
there is an incentive to have the dollar lose value since that will make the debt burden seem
like less in relation to a revived export sector

+ Oil import dependence is a huge vulnerability, and if the dollar is to fall, the US will have to
cope with the likelihood that the dollar price of oil imports will rise, perhaps massively
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 Bigg Moonster

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 01:09 AM

This does look like a dead cat bounce given what happened Friday in the US markets. Having said this, there are more tools now. Still have trouble buying into the market after being out for so long because there are no confirmations yets.

How does one play in this type of a market? The market is still way below the 200 day average.

#14 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 01:22 AM

QUOTE (Mr Pipples @ Oct 14 2008, 10:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
John Authers on the bounce: http://www.ft.com/cm...mp;fromSearch=n


Thanks biggrin.gif




Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

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#15 DrBubb

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 01:40 AM

QUOTE (Bigg Moonster @ Oct 14 2008, 09:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
This does look like a dead cat bounce given what happened Friday in the US markets. Having said this, there are more tools now. Still have trouble buying into the market after being out for so long because there are no confirmations yets.

How does one play in this type of a market? The market is still way below the 200 day average.


Listen to Investors Digest.
They talk about the need for a second day of strength, 3-5 days later.
I will be checking out Tom Obrien's podcast on TFNN.com, to hear more precise detail.
Anyway, i think there's a good chance the lows will be retested/beat in 2009, if not briefly in late october
(look at the Larry P/ thread, his forecast is still very much on track.)

As Auters says, the fact that it happened on light volume, means it carries less significance
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#16 GTG

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 03:04 AM

Monday and Tuesday are crucial days according to Larry P on last Fridays Tom Obrien show. He did n't say exactly why but I think it's got something to do with his astrological theories. He reckons that we have n't seen the big down day like happened in 1837 and if we are going to see it, it will be on one of these two days. I'm going in on the DOG tomorrow, the proshares one that is smile.gif
The entire modern financial system is based upon a very small group of people having the power to create money out of thin air.

#17 grumpy-old-man

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 08:35 AM

serious question:

does science or sentiment predict the markets I wonder ?

do the charts get it right just because sentiment paves the way ahead ?

aren't the big crashes always in Sept/Oct

following on from my we have charts'n'graphs to back us up post wink.gif

ps - love the thread title..... biggrin.gif



#18 grumpy-old-man

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 08:36 AM

QUOTE (GTG @ Oct 14 2008, 04:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Monday and Tuesday are crucial days according to Larry P on last Fridays Tom Obrien show. He did n't say exactly why but I think it's got something to do with his astrological theories. He reckons that we have n't seen the big down day like happened in 1837 and if we are going to see it, it will be on one of these two days. I'm going in on the DOG tomorrow, the proshares one that is smile.gif


you will have the logical thinkers & darwinians spitting feathers with comments like that. ohmy.gif wink.gif


#19 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 09:15 AM

I'm sure we've evolved past spitting feathers laugh.gif laugh.gif

Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

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#20 THEBIGMAN

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 09:45 AM

I think feng shui is the future of technical analysis. Now, who wants these lovely Barclays shares, dirt cheap?

We can not sit back and allow communist infiltration, communist indoctrination, communist subversion and the international communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids.





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