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Good time to stress test the newsletter writers, etc


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#1 Fence

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 11:35 AM

Seems like a good time (!) to review how well the various newletters, programmes, etc have been doing in dealing with the current financial situation.

I don't mean specific short-term predictions on the indicies, etc but more the bigger picture:

o Did they predict this, backed by some correct analysis (i.e. rather than good luck or hedging both sides)?

o Are they correctly analysing where we currently are (i.e. do they have a handle on things)?

o Do they have a clear and logical picture of the future course of events (i.e. do they sound credible)?

o Are they making clear recommendations on what to do now?

o Are they now being seen to be biased or caught in blinkered thinking?

I suggest a post for each source, with some comment and links.

#2 Fence

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 11:46 AM

Global Money Trends (aka Sirchartsalot)

Summary: Lots of respect for this guy but not much use at present and did not seem particularly ahead of the game.

Link: http://www.sirchartsalot.com

Comments:

o Paid newsletter and twice weekly audio by Gary Dorsch. Often a guest on Financial Sense. Good thinker with lots of experience.

o Proves a good macro analysis (especially linkages between markets) with a mix of fundamental and (mild) technical analysis.

o Used to publish a model portfolio but stopped doing this without any mention (guess its an embarrasment).

o His audio/newsletters have recently just provided commentary on what's been happening rather than recommendations.

o Seems to excessively emphasise "demand destruction" (e.g. focus on US oild demand rather than world supply and demand).



#3 bakachu

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 11:50 AM

Channel 4 news, fantastic coverage by Jon Snow + Co. They were ringing the alarm bells about Icelandic banks back in March. Generally just consistently good at reporting this mess for what it is.

They are the only main TV news programme I consider to have 'grappled this bull by the horns', so to speak.


Plus Jon wears really funky ties and socks.


#4 Fence

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 11:55 AM

Puru Saxena

Summary: More of a trader, seems sharp and on the ball but you need confidence to stick with him.

Link: http://purusaxena.com/

Comments:

o Paid monthly newsletter and weekly email. Based in Hong Kong with Asian perspective in addition to world wide perspective.

o Often on Financial Sense. Puplava seems to have a lot of respect for this guy.

o More of an intermediate term trader (i.e. not buy and hold but will sell if fundamentals/technicals say so).

o Very good analysis coming into this mess, and good commentry on where we currently are and where we are going.

o Has conviction and clarity. Says what he thinks and gives clear recommendations. No hedging his opinion.

o Currently saying to hold, even buy, PMs and commodities and energy despite further falls so you need confidence in him.

o Sent additional email alerts out during the crisis which was a nice touch.

o Probably the best source I have heard over this crisis period.

#5 Fence

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 11:57 AM

QUOTE (bakachu @ Oct 12 2008, 12:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Channel 4 news, fantastic coverage by Jon Snow + Co. They were ringing the alarm bells about Icelandic banks back in March. Generally just consistently good at reporting this mess for what it is.

They are the only main TV news programme I consider to have 'grappled this bull by the horns', so to speak.


Plus Jon wears really funky ties and socks.



Agreed, they have excelled. John Snow outclasses all his peers. Treats me as being intelligent and has little arrogance (apart from the ties!). My kind of reporter.



#6 Fence

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 12:09 PM

Financial Sense

Summary: Massive respect for these guys (commitment and analysis) but are they losing it?

Link: http://www.financialsense.com/

Comments:

o Loads of information and articles on their web-site, plus a weekly "radio" (mp3) show.

o One of the best sources of information on markets. Lots of broadcast and article guests so a good single point of information.

o Always been keen to analyse the bigger picture and been pretty good at it coming into this crisis.

o Lose their way sometimes (e.g. Oreilo (sp?) theory, constantly moving oil price targets, etc).

o Seem a bit blinkered currently with inane emphasis on definitions of inflation/deflation, peak oil, etc.

o Jim is a fund manager and was wrongly (in my view) criticising "mark to market" this week (presumably being hit) - too biased?

o They seem to be struggling a bit to fully appreciate what is happening (e.g. took a while to mention deleveraging).

o Will always remain a favourite but I no longer believe or trust all they say (which is a good lesson).


#7 Fence

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 12:22 PM

Robert McHugh Main Line Investors Inc

Link: http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com

Summary: Done well providing a technical navigation through the current crisis.

Comments:

o Paid newsletter published daily and weekly. Daily summary email. Sometimes a guest on FSN.

o Coverage of the US, Australian, HUI, Gold, Silver, USD, and (a little) DAX and FTSE markets.

o Very much technical analysis (intermediate and short), using some of his own indicators (but no "system" per se).

o Little in the way of fundamental analysis in the newsletters (although he says more when on FSN (and sounds good)) .

o Hard to read sometimes (confusing - ambiguous writing, no clear layout, not clear terminology).

o Provides an excellent technical summary of where we were, where we are, and where we are going.

o Done a good job at predicting market levels. Really helped me to make some trading money!

o The daily emails provide a good "sense check" of my thoughts and/or fill in the blanks!

#8 Fence

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 12:33 PM

The International Forecaster

Link: http://theinternationalforecaster.com

Summary: Maybe considered to be on the "lunatic fringe" but could be a grain of truth and he did call the crisis sort of right.

Comments:

o Paid for twice weekly newsletter. Regular guest appearance on Goldseek radio.

o Semi-retired broker (?) provides his musing on events. No technical analysis or anything like that.

o The newsletter is a bit of a ramble and gets a bit conspiritorial so you need to sort the gems out from the rest.

o Tells you details the others seem to miss which can be quite insightful.

o Not much good at predicting the future or recommending anything other than guns and freeze dried food!

o Useful for providing a different view and information but plays more on emotion than practicalities.





#9 bobbyald

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 01:17 PM

QUOTE (Fence @ Oct 12 2008, 10:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Financial Sense

Summary: Massive respect for these guys (commitment and analysis) but are they losing it?

Link: http://www.financialsense.com/

Comments:

o Loads of information and articles on their web-site, plus a weekly "radio" (mp3) show.

o One of the best sources of information on markets. Lots of broadcast and article guests so a good single point of information.

o Always been keen to analyse the bigger picture and been pretty good at it coming into this crisis.

o Lose their way sometimes (e.g. Oreilo (sp?) theory, constantly moving oil price targets, etc).

o Seem a bit blinkered currently with inane emphasis on definitions of inflation/deflation, peak oil, etc.

o Jim is a fund manager and was wrongly (in my view) criticising "mark to market" this week (presumably being hit) - too biased?

o They seem to be struggling a bit to fully appreciate what is happening (e.g. took a while to mention deleveraging).

o Will always remain a favourite but I no longer believe or trust all they say (which is a good lesson).



Certainly agree with your assessment here.
Been listening for many years and at one point believed they could be on the right track (still do with peak oil).
But they are losing it on economics and are failing to keep up with what is happening.
JP must be under lots of pressure given what is happening to his portfolio. His junior golds are just getting hammered and it'll be interesting to see how he explains away his call for a new high in the Dow this year.
(His portfolio is available on this site)
JP's mate John is also losing it: "This is not deflation it's deleveraging" was a comment that many here could have taken him up on.
Still good listening though, just waiting for the day he admits deflation is a possibility.

The rising star must be Mish.
He's a smart cookie and willing to argue deflation live against anyone and has come out on top against Janzen and Schiff in my opinion.
He once offer JP a bet I recall (something to do with some steaks) - JP did not respond.
JP is a great talker but not a great economist and knows he would struggle in a debate.




















#10 bobbyald

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 01:29 PM

QUOTE (Fence @ Oct 12 2008, 10:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The International Forecaster

Link: http://theinternationalforecaster.com

Summary: Maybe considered to be on the "lunatic fringe" but could be a grain of truth and he did call the crisis sort of right.

Comments:

o Paid for twice weekly newsletter. Regular guest appearance on Goldseek radio.

o Semi-retired broker (?) provides his musing on events. No technical analysis or anything like that.

o The newsletter is a bit of a ramble and gets a bit conspiritorial so you need to sort the gems out from the rest.

o Tells you details the others seem to miss which can be quite insightful.

o Not much good at predicting the future or recommending anything other than guns and freeze dried food!

o Useful for providing a different view and information but plays more on emotion than practicalities.



Another good assessment.
Excellent for the real doom and gloomer and I quite like his work.
Certainly on the lunatic fringe but has made good calls.
His been storing food since the 1960's - and could right one day.
Loves his gold coins and travels abroad with some just in case.
In my darker moments I give him the benefit of the doubt on some of his wilder claims.
Claims to speak many languages but never really convinces me of any fluency.












#11 DrBubb

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 01:54 PM

QUOTE (Fence @ Oct 12 2008, 08:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Puru Saxena

Summary: More of a trader, seems sharp and on the ball but you need confidence to stick with him.

Link: http://purusaxena.com/

Comments:

o Paid monthly newsletter and weekly email. Based in Hong Kong with Asian perspective in addition to world wide perspective.

o Often on Financial Sense. Puplava seems to have a lot of respect for this guy.
. . .
o Probably the best source I have heard over this crisis period.


I saw Puru in a Starbucks Coffee shop about two weeks ago, and nearly went up to him.
I wish I had now
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#12 No6

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 02:10 PM

QUOTE (bobbyald @ Oct 12 2008, 02:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
JP's mate John is also losing it: "This is not deflation it's deleveraging" was a comment that many here could have taken him up on.


Well, I've only just listened and yes, when I heard this I thought, unbelievable! Look at this way. Let's say you bought into one of Puplava's funds 3 months ago and you are now down 30% (this is a figure I've plucked out of the air, I've no idea of the real figure, but I suspect it is down), that means for you, your wealth has been reduced by 30%, you are experiencing asset price deflation. It may well be that deleveraging is going on, but this is resulting in massive asset price deflation, which while it may well be short lived, is little comfort for those going through it. Inflation/deflation debates on theory are all very well, but reality is your experience.

I think Puplava is praying for the great reflation and he may get it, but many of his predictions have increasing become questionable, for example he did call the housing bottom about 6-9 months ago in one of his programmes! I like JP.

All the same, I still think FSN is worth listening too, if only to place a bet on how many times he says "it's amazing" in a show. Over/under 45, spread bet odds worth checking I reckon.

#13 Fence

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 05:03 PM

QUOTE (No6 @ Oct 12 2008, 03:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Well, I've only just listened and yes, when I heard this I thought, unbelievable! Look at this way. Let's say you bought into one of Puplava's funds 3 months ago and you are now down 30% (this is a figure I've plucked out of the air, I've no idea of the real figure, but I suspect it is down), that means for you, your wealth has been reduced by 30%, you are experiencing asset price deflation. It may well be that deleveraging is going on, but this is resulting in massive asset price deflation, which while it may well be short lived, is little comfort for those going through it. Inflation/deflation debates on theory are all very well, but reality is your experience.

I think Puplava is praying for the great reflation and he may get it, but many of his predictions have increasing become questionable, for example he did call the housing bottom about 6-9 months ago in one of his programmes! I like JP.

All the same, I still think FSN is worth listening too, if only to place a bet on how many times he says "it's amazing" in a show. Over/under 45, spread bet odds worth checking I reckon.


Ouch, spot on! Well I've followed his advice with energy and juniors and only 30% down would be wonderful! That said, he gives a very good arguement for the fundamentals in energy, etc so I give him the benefit of the doubt (plus I owe him a lot over the years). But then had I followed Saxena, who agrees with him but is prepared to buy and sell, I would not be down so much. Saxena has taught me buy and hold is dead (and to investigate some technical analysis to supplement the fundamental analysis). Puplava over the last few week has worried me with his comments now his back (as a fund manager) is presumably against the wall (I review his holdings each quarter so know he must be hurting). His behaviour was largely the impetus for this thread. This week's slagging off of "mark to market" was a wake up call. Happy to take the unrealised gains on the way up but not on the way down. I'm an accountant - consistency rules! And that's why we have financial statements with disclosure about such things. That said, I have huge respect and admiration for both of them.


#14 Fence

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 05:15 PM

GoldSeek radio

Link: http://www.radio.goldseek.com

Summary: Good background financial musac but seem to have risen above most of the current crisis

Comments:

o Weekly free broadcast (mp3) and stock picks with free daily emails (which seem to all arrive on Sundays!).

o Has the International Forecaster on to do most of the analysis (wonder why I subscribe to this when he's here).

o Saw trouble brewing but say little about the future other than buy CHF bonds and PMs (maybe they're right).

o Do issue high dividend stock picks which I might try once normality resumes (after checking for no scam).

o Provides some recommendation on the PM and US market market short term but low key.

o Has a weekly guest, usually quite good for the bigger picture view and strategy.

o All that, a good listen (apart from the baggage that comes with being on some sort of free to air channel).

o PS. That ad about gold being $6xx is old - please don't top yourself on hearing it!



#15 AgeingBabyBoomer

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 07:22 PM

Bob Hoye - weekly podcasts here:
http://www.howestreet.com/audiovideo/

Has a newsletter too, but I believe it is very expensive.

I like his long term historical view - completely unfazed by the current travails.

ABB

#16 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 07:37 PM

QUOTE (AgeingBabyBoomer @ Oct 13 2008, 08:22 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Bob Hoye - weekly podcasts here:
http://www.howestreet.com/audiovideo/

Has a newsletter too, but I believe it is very expensive.

I like his long term historical view - completely unfazed by the current travails.

ABB


Howe Street is one of my main sources of podcast.


Fence,
You are doing a great job here. Very useful and interesting.
I've added this thread to my list of notable threads biggrin.gif

Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

Notable Threads Notable Posts

#17 lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 08:30 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Oct 12 2008, 02:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I saw Puru in a Starbucks Coffee shop about two weeks ago, and nearly went up to him.
I wish I had now

you made that same mistake with John Templeton
QUOTE
"You have to choose, as a voter, between trusting to the national stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of governments. I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

George Bernard Shaw


QUOTE
The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin . . . . Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. . . . Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. . . . But, if you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit.

Sir Josiah Stamp, director of the Bank of England and the second richest man in Britain in the 1920s

#18 lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 08:35 PM

QUOTE (No6 @ Oct 12 2008, 03:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Well, I've only just listened and yes, when I heard this I thought, unbelievable! Look at this way. Let's say you bought into one of Puplava's funds 3 months ago and you are now down 30% (this is a figure I've plucked out of the air, I've no idea of the real figure, but I suspect it is down), that means for you, your wealth has been reduced by 30%, you are experiencing asset price deflation. It may well be that deleveraging is going on, but this is resulting in massive asset price deflation, which while it may well be short lived, is little comfort for those going through it. Inflation/deflation debates on theory are all very well, but reality is your experience.

I think Puplava is praying for the great reflation and he may get it, but many of his predictions have increasing become questionable, for example he did call the housing bottom about 6-9 months ago in one of his programmes! I like JP.

All the same, I still think FSN is worth listening too, if only to place a bet on how many times he says "it's amazing" in a show. Over/under 45, spread bet odds worth checking I reckon.


Captain Hook

this guy just called it right in the summer re Juniors - unfortunately i didnt listen and stayed invested in them


and this one called the crash to the day?

from memory i think he has been calling for a while - not as long as precther though
http://www.safehaven...ticle-11539.htm



QUOTE
"You have to choose, as a voter, between trusting to the national stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of governments. I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

George Bernard Shaw


QUOTE
The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin . . . . Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. . . . Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. . . . But, if you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit.

Sir Josiah Stamp, director of the Bank of England and the second richest man in Britain in the 1920s

#19 Cuthbert Calculus

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 08:39 PM

Bob Hoye has called these markets better than anyone imo. From the collapse in base metals prices 18 months ago to the collapse in oil to the stock market collapse to the silver:gold ratio going back to 100 (now 85-90) .

Puplava is inspiring and charismatic but if you followed his advice you would be losing a fortune.

he was very late to the housing collapse and called it only after the event believing instead in his hyperinflation so religiously that all hard assets would rise against cash. His research on peak oil is impeccable. However, there are many other things driving the oil price apart from peak oil and he has not taken these into account.

Mish is V. good too. But gives opinion rather than specific trade advice.

#20 lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)

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Posted 12 October 2008 - 08:53 PM

Martin Armstrong

not a newsletter but this cycle didnt have a low planned

The Future

QUOTE
While this business cycle can be calculated on quarter-cycle intervals of 2.15 years into the final peak for this major wave formation of December 24th, 2032. Though this is long beyond my life expectancy, there is so much more behind the true understanding of the driving forces within the business cycle. I have learned that it is easy to claim coincidence and ignore the telltale signs of a hidden order. It is easy to argue that there is no basis for such a model without ever making an effort to test results. If everyone stopped with such criticism, most of ancient Greece would still be buried and Homer would still be considered a book for children. Man would not fly or travel to the moon. A cure for cancer would not be sought and progress would simply not exist. But furthering our understanding is part of humanity. Like law, that when strictly enforced deprives society of justice when circumstances are ignored, it is also the sin of ignorance toward new concepts that deprives mankind of progress and ultimately our posterity.

The Economic Confidence Model in 2.15-year intervals


1998.55... 07/20/98

2000.7.... 09/13/00

2002.85... 11/08/02

2005.... 01/02/05

2007.15... 02/27/07

2009.3... 04/23/09

2011.45... 06/18/11

2013.6... 08/12/13

2015.75... 10/07/15

2017.9... 12/01/17

2020.05... 01/26/20

2022.2... 03/22/22

2024.35... 05/16/24

2026.5... 07/11/26

2028.65... 09/04/28

2030.8... 10/30/30

2032.95... 12/24/32



The future that lies ahead will increasingly move ever greater toward intensity and volatility. Such periods have always brought not merely great booms and busts, but they too hold in the palm of their hand the thunderbolt of war. The economic future of Russia is one of such corruption and decay, that it too will rise as the warlord who seeks to regain what he has lost. China too will eventually beat the drums of war as its economy worsens and its leaders seek to hold the slippery reigns of power. Such periods of economic strife will begin to grow in intensity particularly following 2002.85 and moving into 2007.15. Only when economic chaos reaches a sudden state of eruption is it possible to see a successful revolution. The government was not prepared in Indonesia. However, unless a complete shock takes place in China and Russia, it is far more likely that these two nations will not fall to internal revolution but will seek to turn the economic tides against their neighbors. These are basic facts of history that cannot be denied. War is directly linked to the economic fate of mankind. Undermine the economy and you will create the next Hitler.

During the American Revolution, World War I and World War II, the act of counterfeiting the currency of your enemy was but one means of warfare intent upon undermining their economy. The dark side to investigating the business cycle is clearly exposing the map through which an enemy can exploit your economy at the precise moment of maximum intensity thereby creating the greatest amount of economic instability. I suppose it is like splitting the atom. The power can be used to light a city or harnessed to destroy it. We must always face that plus and minus no matter what field one seeks to explore.

The financial markets will contract globally. The untold hidden losses within the Japanese financial system are slowly bubbling to the surface. However, as new mark-to-market rules approach on April 1st, 2001, the sins of the past will all be forced into the open light of day and those who have thought that economic recovery was underway will be shocked by what they will still face. While the US market may yet contract into 2000, the flicker of hope for one more rally into 2002.85 exists as long as the rest of the world remains so uncertain. But for the US market to survive into 2002, it must also retest support going into 2000. Without a pull back, the global instability will create a dangerous economic situation in the years ahead. It is clear that a high in 2002/2003 for the US market may be followed by a crash, but the shift in capital investment will then move back toward the tangible sectors that have been left behind.

QUOTE
"You have to choose, as a voter, between trusting to the national stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of governments. I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

George Bernard Shaw


QUOTE
The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin . . . . Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. . . . Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. . . . But, if you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit.

Sir Josiah Stamp, director of the Bank of England and the second richest man in Britain in the 1920s




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