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Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)


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#1 G0ldfinger

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Posted 08 October 2008 - 11:19 AM

I think it's worth having an own thread for JS's posts.

Posted On: Tuesday, October 07, 2008, 2:02:00 PM EST
The Federal OTC Derivative Dealers

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear Friends,

Please understand that the Fed reacts to circumstances rather than acting before potential problems happen.

If the Fed hadn't taken the rather strange action they took today by becoming OTC derivative dealers themselves this would have been the day the USA banking system imploded.

Watch Libor rates to signal the point of detonation
.

Circumstances appear as if there were many problem Angels dancing on top of a pin that is being balanced on the nose of just those people who created the problem in the first place.

An implosion of the banking system is coming, which means a bank holiday will occur.

You now must have enough cash in hand to last a month or two.

If you have not distanced yourself from financial agents then you have a financial death wish.

If you have NOT made absolutely sure that your custodian account is a real custodial- ship you are probably in for a surprise.

I took a call yesterday from a mature lady who told me she feels her money market fund that is only in Treasuries will not pay her out. They did tell her they intend to in seven days. I asked her to call me back in eight days. How does she know that this money market fund is not in OTC derivatives based on the movement of Treasuries?

I do not want you to make that call to me.

If you can retire from your retirement program at some reasonable discount do it NOW.

This is it and it is NOW. Gold is going to $1200 and $1650. The US dollar rally has NO fundamental legs.

Why are so many of you sitting there like a deer caught in the headlights? Protect yourself and do it TODAY!

Respectfully,
Jim
====

His website : http://JSmineset.com
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
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#2 G0ldfinger

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Posted 09 October 2008 - 07:10 AM

QUOTE
Posted On: Wednesday, October 08, 2008, 8:56:00 PM EST

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair and Dan Norcini




Dear Friends,

The Big Gun was rolled out today. The equity market had steadied from its recent drastic action and Paulson picked up the baton and ran with it. He is considered to be the best public speaker of the Money Men.

The Bloomberg ladies were in total glee as the market was up about 125 points. As Paulson said that not all financial failures would be bailed out (now a major fib) the equity gang lost their instructions. In the blink of an eye what was up 125 points was then down almost 200.

I imagine being a good public speaker does not carry much weight in a situation that can be described as "OUT OF CONTROL."

If the Washington gang really does not want the financial calamity now in progress, statements that suggest another major financial entity could go bankrupt without a bailout should be avoided. If all powerful Money Man persists in bringing up thoughts of Lehman's Chapter 11, the equity market will have no bottom. Letting Lehman go after instituting bailouts of others is the event that has given way to this "Out of Control" condition.

Out of Control means just what it says. If things were under control the equity market would not have given a Brooklyn Cheer to the President of the USA and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and there would not have been an unprecedented drop of interest rates today.

Bank holidays are on the way.

Every major retirement fund is stone broke.

Most money management entities are full of treasury OTC derivatives, not treasury instruments, and are therefore also broke.


The local banks are in the web of the Money Center banks and are therefore in trouble they do not even know about yet.

The paperwork behind OTC mortgages is a total disaster, adding more mess to an already major financial planetary killer.

I am sorry to say that there is no way to make this process go away. The downward spiral will make its way to the bottom.

Gold will be the tool that finally stops the plague in the form of the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, revitalized and modernized, but not until the public is in such a condition that it cries out to God to stop the carnage. That will happen sometime before January 14th 2011.

Protect yourself, this is out of control!

Respectfully yours,
Jim

You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
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#3 lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)

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Posted 09 October 2008 - 07:14 PM

could we make it a JIM thread


Jim_Willie
http://marketoracle....rticle6702.html
QUOTE
Pardon the jumpy style, not burdened by depth, preferring breadth instead. The events of the last few days continue to be remarkable, alarming, chaotic, surreal, and desperate. The globe is slowly realizing that the United States is careening toward a probable financial death experience. Nothing has worked to date, and nothing will work in the present, not bailouts, not liquidations, not nationalizations, not papered over fraud, and surely rate cuts. The stark reality contains a blur of a massive locomotive derailed, having run over the mountain ledge, heading downward in a freefall, subjected to the force of gravity, and ripping through a gigantic erected paper net designed to halt its crash.

CLOWNS IN CHARGE DO NOT REALIZE THE SYSTEM IS FLAWED AND BROKEN, AS EFFORTS TO REDOUBLE THE DEVICES ARE ALL DRAWN FROM THE SAME DEFECTIVE TOOLBAG. MAJOR BANK FAILURES, BANKRUPTCIES OF MAJOR FINANCIAL FIRMS (LIKE INSURANCE), AND INDIVIDUAL MARKET DEFAULTS COME VERY SOON. Incredible events are occurring behind the scenes, the details of which would shock most people, even those who deal with the underworld. Recall Wall Street propaganda this summer? That the US will be first to emerge from the carnage? Such lunatic promotional nonsense should be recalled when it becomes clear that the Untied States cannot emerge from its broken condition. The game is over, and only the enlightened realize it! What lies ahead is the tragedy of distintegration!!! That includes the nation and its very governmental structure.

GLOBAL RATE CUT: The USFed turned down a chance to cut a couple weeks ago, thinking it would look weak. Now they look desperate. Surely, to defend the USDollar, they wanted coordinated rate cuts, but gold will respond the most. The Dow futures were down 280 points before the coordinated interest rate cut was announced on Wednesday. The USFed, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Euro Central Bank, Swiss National Bank, and Sveriges Riksbank (Sweden) all announced an official interest rate cut. Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut by a full 100 basis points. Hong Kong is considering its own cut also. When the New York City fraudulent rigged bazaar known as the stock market opened, the Dow was suddenly down 220 points, then rallied to plus 180 points, and seemed like it could not do anything but head down, closing down 189 points. What a loud repudiation of a fleeting solution! The rate cut might have some impact on mortgage loans, almost nothing more.

The S&P500 index lies below its 200-week moving average, the ultra-longterm series, which was penetrated on the downside last June, the first time in 26 years. Talk about a bear signal!!! On any day in the past twenty years, a 50 basis point rate cut would enable a complete turnaround in the stock market for months on end. What a shock. Banks are insolvent, distrust each other, as the economies are sliding into a quagmire! A great quote came from sage Rick Santelli from CNBC, who said “The Fed rate cut is like shooting arrows at an enemy that is 20 miles away.” He can speak freely only half the time.

GOLD DEFAULT DEAD AHEAD: The COMEX and London Metal Exchange are living on borrowed time in their corrupt gold game. They sell paper gold, and precious little actual gold metal. See a refreshing straightforward interview aired on CNBC of all places ( click here ). It is by Jurg Kiener, CEO of Swiss Asia Capital. He points out the dual market for gold, one paper and one metal. He expects soon the US ‘gambling price' gold market in COMEX and LME to default. By that he means a return suddenly to physical price determination. He is quoted to say THE GOLD PRICE WOULD DOUBLE VERY QUICKLY, LIKE IN DAYS AFTER THE EXPECTED METAL DEFAULT . One should expect the interview to be lifted and removed from their website within days, after they realize the explosive nature of his words.

THE FAVORABLE DISCONNECT: In August, my analysis pointed out that a disconnect was necessary for the gold price to rise independently of the USDollar. Gold is no longer just an anti-US$ trade, but rather a trade on global monetary inflation. With today's virtual global rate cut, one can herald the transition as complete. Notice how since mid-September, the gold price has risen with the USDollar DX index, shown in the big green ellipse. Liquidations and monetizations will go hand in hand, once properly understood. Gold has begun to respond to anticipated extreme new US$ money supply growth and supply needs.



QUOTE
"You have to choose, as a voter, between trusting to the national stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of governments. I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

George Bernard Shaw


QUOTE
The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin . . . . Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. . . . Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. . . . But, if you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit.

Sir Josiah Stamp, director of the Bank of England and the second richest man in Britain in the 1920s

#4 walden

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Posted 09 October 2008 - 09:46 PM

Posted On: Thursday, October 09, 2008, 3:32:00 PM EST

In The News Today Author: Jim Sinclair

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

I wonder if this fellow owns any junior metal shares...

Cops: Stamford Man Threatened Bank Over Financial Losses
Last Edited: Wednesday, 08 Oct 2008, 5:49 PM EDT
Created: Wednesday, 08 Oct 2008, 5:49 PM EDT

MyFoxNY.com -- Cops say the Wall Street crisis has had a disturbing affect on one disgruntled investor. Police charged a 60-year-old man with threatening to blow up a bank branch in Stamford. Authorities say he was angry about his investment losses, so he walked into a branch and said he would kill everyone inside

___________________________

'disturbing effect on one disgruntled investor' ---- just one, that's optimism --- a few more will follow to deal out retribution



The USA is the World's OTC derivative central whose primary export has been this corrupt financial weapon that has caused mass destruction. Yes, Europe had their own culprits, so did Canada, but nothing like the greed driven, self centered egomaniac US big shots. ------ Jim Sinclair

#5 G0ldfinger

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 05:35 AM

Also posted on the gold thread:
QUOTE
Posted On: Thursday, October 09, 2008, 10:17:00 PM EST
Gold and Dollar Market Summary
Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear Friends,

Gold is about to VAULT UP.

I am reliably informed that the paper versus bullion gold war is lost by paper gold at a $930 close.

Gold will vault to slightly under $900 then get pushed back, but not much at all. Directly after that we are off to $1200.


A Bank Holiday is moving from possible to PROBABLE.

* Have you fully protected yourself?
* Have you distanced yourself as much as possible away from financial agents holding your assets?
* Have you gotten paper certificates for your shares or became a direct registration book entry at the transfer agent?
* Have you protected your retirement accounts the same way as your shares above but in the name of the retirement account and the trust holding them?
* Have you closed your Money Market fund accounts regardless of what assurances your bankers offer?
* Have you withdrawn from your Credit Union?
* Have you exited your corporate retirement fund?
* Do you have significant gold and related shares investments?

It is getting UGLY out there as each day an attempt to postpone a bank holiday fails. Almost every other day lately financial leaders of the world have announced new plans that were "the final answer" to the super-glued credit market. All these plans have had no effect. The Dow fell like a rock off a cliff.

This says all efforts have failed.

You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
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#6 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 06:43 AM

QUOTE
GOLD DEFAULT DEAD AHEAD: The COMEX and London Metal Exchange are living on borrowed time in their corrupt gold game. They sell paper gold, and precious little actual gold metal. See a refreshing straightforward interview aired on CNBC of all places ( click here ). It is by Jurg Kiener, CEO of Swiss Asia Capital. He points out the dual market for gold, one paper and one metal. He expects soon the US ‘gambling price' gold market in COMEX and LME to default. By that he means a return suddenly to physical price determination. He is quoted to say THE GOLD PRICE WOULD DOUBLE VERY QUICKLY, LIKE IN DAYS AFTER THE EXPECTED METAL DEFAULT . One should expect the interview to be lifted and removed from their website within days, after they realize the explosive nature of his words.


blink.gif blink.gif blink.gif

Gold Prices May Spike
Within the gold complex, there is a disparity between the paper market and the physical market, notes Jurg Kiener, CEO of Swiss Asia Capital. He tells CNBC's Maura Fogarty & Rebecca Meehan that if the paper market collapses, gold prices may double very quickly.

http://www.cnbc.com/...80574352&play=1

Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

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#7 ConvertedGoldBug

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 07:50 AM

Can someone please explain what happens during a "bank holiday"?

Does it mean the banks go bust?

Or are they shut down to stop people withdrawing funds, so the banks are still capitalised?

Or is it to give time for the Central Banks to put the printing presses into overdrive to re-capitalise the banks?

Or something else...
Such as a currency re-valuation?
Or global write-off of all debts and starting from a newly-printed balance sheet?

And how long could it last?


Basically, I'd like some input on the Why's and What For's...
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#8 The Traveller

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:16 AM

Quite possibly all of those reasons CGB. The way I see it, it is to stop the clocks. Using my experience here is what I'd expect to happen on A. Random Bank's side after a holiday is declared:

1) Government declares three-day or five-day bank holiday for 'crisis management' purposes (will probably dress it up in better language than that).
2) Bank closes it's doors at the close of business and enters a state of flux. It's possible ATM's could stay on-line but they would be empty in a matter of hours (if I remember rightly a fully loaded ATM can contain half-a-million pounds approximately, but it is very unlikely except for all but the busiest places that the ATM would be fully loaded). No BACS, no CHAPS, no SWIFT, no EDI between banks. The movement of money, even electronically, is paralysed. 'Dip-switches' that could be applied to the system are making it possible to continue debit/credit card transactions, but I think that highly unlikely.

Two will happen under a bank holiday, this I know because I've been a cog in that machine at one point in my life. Hereonin I am speculating.

3) Full audits of positions could be ordered by the FSA. This means totting up assets and liabilities from Head Office down, but if you ask me if that could be cleared within a week I'd have to say no. Expect the one week to be extended to two, possibly three weeks.

4) Once 'totting up' of various banks' positions is known, and I assume from here this is done in privacy, even downright secrecy, we find out who's liquid and who isn't. Horse trading will occur here between the banks and Government to either arrange takeovers/nationalisation or 'cancelling out' of liabilities between banks.

5) When everyone's happy, tea and crumpets, your currency has probably been devauled by 30% or more if this 'holiday' isn't globally co-ordinated, but you have a nice bank to put it in again. Question is, will you trust them again?
<pubkey>AI9cvSI8jugIJKYK0CEX6VHJXIrJskhtFCWstKYml9KSQUHo3rW/l1XYfIxR
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#9 Pixel8r

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:25 AM

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Oct 10 2008, 06:35 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Gold will vault to slightly under $900 then get pushed back, but not much at all. Directly after that we are off to $1200.


I think he must have meant to type $1000

#10 Pixel8r

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:26 AM

QUOTE (ConvertedGoldBug @ Oct 10 2008, 08:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Can someone please explain what happens during a "bank holiday"?

Does it mean the banks go bust?

Or are they shut down to stop people withdrawing funds, so the banks are still capitalised?

Or is it to give time for the Central Banks to put the printing presses into overdrive to re-capitalise the banks?

Or something else...
Such as a currency re-valuation?
Or global write-off of all debts and starting from a newly-printed balance sheet?

And how long could it last?


Basically, I'd like some input on the Why's and What For's...


listen to this:-

#11 Mr P

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 07:45 PM

Have included a bit of Monty too cause it's good:

QUOTE
Posted On: Friday, October 10, 2008, 3:17:00 PM EST

Monty Comments On Merril's Banking Crisis Report

Author: Monty Guild




Dear CIGAs,

Merrill Lynch issued a big report today on the banking crisis.

Here are the main points:

1. Everyone is waiting for the big government solution.
2. Coordinated moves will not necessarily be effective, but it will be historic if it happens.
3. We are barely past the halfway point of the credit down cycle.
4. People will continue to crowd into treasuries Rosenberg (and in my opinion, gold).
5. Corporate profits not yet impacted will go lower.
6. Private sector interest rates are rising.

As Jim Sinclair has predicted in his model, Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg, who is their chief economist corroborates my opinion. He states “It is truly a modern day depression, in our view- what else do you call it when an entire industry vanishes (investment banks) in less than a year: the ranks of the unemployed soar more than 30%, and nearly one in ten homeowners with a mortgage are either in arrears or foreclosure?”

Like us, he goes on to say “Now let’s not confuse that with the Great Depression - this is not the 1930’s all over again.”

More points:

1. The government will have taken over many banks before this ends.
2. Finally, Rosenberg states that the current money supply boost may not be inflationary. His argument is that the velocity of money is shrinking in the US and Europe, and that is clearly true.

Over the short term I agree with him. For this reason I stated a few weeks ago that the inflation rate would moderate for a few months.

It will moderate over the short term; long term is a different story. Once the velocity of money resumes its normal functioning, the massive amounts of money currently being pumped into the system worldwide will create a big inflationary bubble. The inflation will not hit in the next few months, but it will be big when it does hit. As Jim Sinclair likes to say, “Weimar on Weimar.”

Respectfully yours,
Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com





Posted On: Friday, October 10, 2008, 2:04:00 PM EST

In The News Today

Author: Jim Sinclair




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Today is paper gold. Here is what is real gold.

Germans Stockpiling Gold Amid Market Panic

German gold dealers have stopped taking new orders for the precious metal as demand has skyrocketed. Gold is seen as a safe investment during the market turmoil.

In uncertain economic times, Germans are dumping stocks and shares to take refuge in precious metal, accoring to a Wednesday article in a Berlin newspaper.

German gold dealers report running low on stocks of gold bars and coins.

Heiko Ganss, head of the Berlin branch of gold merchant Pro Aurum, told the Berliner Zeitung newspaper that most gold traders were refusing new orders, as they couldn't meet the current demand.

"Demand is running well above our capacity to supply," he was quoted saying, saying retail banks in Germany were also unable to meet demand.

More…


#12 Mr P

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Posted 11 October 2008 - 06:32 AM

QUOTE
Posted On: Friday, October 10, 2008, 7:06:00 PM EST

The Frying Pan or the Fire?

Author: Jim Sinclair




Dear Friends,

Stay the course or jump directly into the fire! That's the soundest advice I can give you in this highly volatile market period. I told you that you would see volatility in gold beyond your wildest imagination. That statement usually went along with my warning that by margining anything gold you were putting yourself in great financial risk.

Today has to seal the veracity of that advice. Now get a hold of yourself. There is absolutely no way governments can make a problem of this size go away over a weekend. Those that question me on this issue are the same ones that laughed in 2000 when I said the growth of OTC derivatives was going to break the world. I told the lead director of Bear Stearns at the time that OTC derivatives were going to break his firm but the profits from them was simply too intoxicating for anyone to listen. Now I am asking you to listen.

Whatever is done to resolve this global financial crisis is going to inject incomprehensible amounts of new money into the global financial system.

Academics see the world as a 'Picture In Time." That means they are static thinkers who can't perceive motion. Visionaries like Harry, Monty, Trader Dan & Tony are "Dynamic Thinkers." At present, some academics are promoting the dumbest line I have ever heard. They say that all this new money going into the system is not monetary inflation because it is simply replacing all the money lost and therefore is a wash. That is part of the thinking pattern I am talking about and it's dead wrong.

Dynamic thinkers know that the outflow of these losses has existed from the time of transaction and therefore prior to truer valuation as mandated by Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB).

The day the FASB mandated truer value had existed for years but was not recognized as such because it was generally accounted for off balance sheet. Just because financial institutions tried to hide their losses, those capital depletions were already a growing cancer inside their organizations.

You can be certain that a repetition of Germany's Weimar crisis is coming soon. There is nothing that can be done to make matters better - even if done by governments unilaterally in a unified action. In fact, such action will only serve to make matters worse.

The larger the financial action, the deeper the financial fall. The G7 still thinks they run the world. That should tell you something about the degree of what they can do.

Gold is honest money that will push all crappy paper out of its way. Why do you think so much intervention took place in gold in US market hours today?

All I can tell you is to stay the course or jump directly into the fire! If the heat in the kitchen is too hot for you, there is nothing I can do for you.

Regards,
Jim Sinclair


#13 stobar

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Posted 11 October 2008 - 08:18 AM

"Gold will vault to slightly under $900 then get pushed back, but not much at all. Directly after that we are off to $1200"

"I told you that you would see volatility in gold beyond your wildest imagination"

back peddle, back peddle.... dry.gif

#14 Errol

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Posted 11 October 2008 - 08:21 AM

QUOTE (stobar @ Oct 11 2008, 09:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
"I told you that you would see volatility in gold beyond your wildest imagination"

back peddle, back peddle.... dry.gif


Not back peddling at all. I've been reading the site since it started. He's always said that the market will eventually see swings of in excess of $100 in a day. People just don't read what he says.

Similarly, he gets calls from people who've been playing the gold market on margin! He has told everyone over and over again that to so is suicide, yet they still don't listen.
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#15 G0ldfinger

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Posted 11 October 2008 - 06:34 PM

QUOTE (Errol @ Oct 11 2008, 09:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Not back peddling at all. I've been reading the site since it started. He's always said that the market will eventually see swings of in excess of $100 in a day. People just don't read what he says.

Similarly, he gets calls from people who've been playing the gold market on margin! He has told everyone over and over again that to so is suicide, yet they still don't listen.

Yes. We're already there, and it will get worse. smile.gif
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
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#16 bakachu

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Posted 11 October 2008 - 06:46 PM

QUOTE (ConvertedGoldBug @ Oct 10 2008, 08:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Can someone please explain what happens during a "bank holiday"?


Chris Martenson to the rescue! (From yesterdays blog entry)

http://www.chrismart...-described/6999

#17 Pixel8r

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 08:11 PM

QUOTE
Posted On: Tuesday, October 14, 2008, 2:06:00 PM EST

Answers To The Deluge Of Today's Questions

Author: Jim Sinclair




Dear Friends,

To answer the deluge of question today breaking over me like Hurricane Katrina:

If this disaster was under control there would not be three financial giants speaking so far today. Actually I want another Nobel Laureate, Dr. Brenner, to stand up and be counted.

Iceland's collapse is no small event. It is not something meaningless that cannot be applied to a broke giant like the USA whose debt to non US entities are enormous problem from banks to government.

This morning the stock market in Iceland, after a three day stop, opened up down 77%. The Krona is in the tank.

The very few in Iceland that survived their crisis are those that, against all advice from every corner, held gold. They are sound and solvent. When this happens to a country their distribution means melts down. Then it is a rush to buy everything you will need for a minimum of 90 days, maybe much longer.

Gold was up $20 in non-US hours, but got mauled by intervention to the negatives and is now slightly higher regardless of the US dollar’s nature.

Think about the load of garbage suggestion that Europe has more problems than the US. That is an Urban Legend without substance. You will see!

This window dressing has 21 days to go because it is more political than it is economic.

That does not mean the Exchange Stabilization fund is non-existent except as an order from the Secretary of the USA to his preferred brokerage firm to sell gold in the paper market. That broker does not even try to hide their actions in either the gold market or equity index related vehicles. The second Goldman appears, every local jumps to whatever side they proudly demonstrated. Such a position of ego usually occurs only at or near the end of that Financial God's name.

Those of you that erroneously think this can never end have never lived through this before. I have lived here for 50 years and am well aware of how the ultimate currency acts.

Gold is insurance against bailouts, busted banks, money market funds like Reserve Funds which have missed their promised payback today, conflagration in the OTC credit default and other varieties of credit derivatives, enormous and unprecedented expansion, regulatory bodies that ignore rape and pillage as well as many more potential financial disasters in themselves.

I told you about that lady that I felt so bad about 8 days ago. She sounded quite mature. Her total wealth is in a Reserve Money Market Fund. She was told they would pay her back in eight days. That was yesterday and NO repayment was made.

Please read this publication before calling me. Please use the search engine provided here before calling me. Please make an effort to research your question using other tools before calling me.

You are giving me ever-deepening battle fatigue so I have to pull back. I have no other choice. 90% of the questions asked have already been answered here in detail repeatedly.

The same callers who need their hands held are tiring me. To be honest, constant whining by the same people is starting to piss me off.

Everything you see done is more of exactly the same thing that caused this problem. It is certainly coddling the real criminals that caused all this.

If you really buy the crap that anything other than freedom of markets to do their thing and truthful valuation of items on any concerned party’s balance sheet can fix the problem, you are too damn dumb for me to help you.

If you believe that governments are bigger than the currency markets or the ultimate insurance currency, gold, what are you doing owning gold? Please do me, the market and yourself a favor and go away.

Now I am going to call this mature lady and give her the less than good news. Gold would have done a lot more for her than a Treasury instrument money market fund that was in all probability up to the greedy eyeballs in OTC derivatives.

Gold will trade at $1200 and $1650 on or before January 14th, 2011. It does not become more of a reality if you call me to hear me say it. Yes, I am 100% in gold and will grow as additional funds become available to me. The difference between you and I is that I stand on my bank as it is underground.

Regards,
Jim



#18 Layman

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 09:24 PM

QUOTE
The difference between you and I is that I stand on my bank as it is underground.

Whatever way you look at it, that's got to be a good feeling. smile.gif

#19 wren

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Posted 14 October 2008 - 10:22 PM

Just between you and me, case does count. wink.gif

Sorry to be a bit of a pedant.

Good article all the same.
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#20 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 15 October 2008 - 09:58 PM

Posted On: Wednesday, October 15, 2008, 3:38:00 PM EST

Market Commentary From Trader Dan Norcini
Author: Dan Norcini

QUOTE
Dear CIGAs,

It was more of the same type of price action that we have been seeing in gold for some time now. The market is torn between continued deleveraging from speculative
players on account of redemption requests from clients moving to cash versus safe haven buying.

It has been interesting reading the comments about this market in the financial press of late. The majority of gold pundits for the most part seems to be reading the same talking points which as usual are utterly and completely wrong. To hear them say it, gold as a safe haven is finished, over, kaput, pushing up daisies, swimming with the fishes, surfing its last wave, worm food, ad infinitum, ad nauseaum.

What these mindless robots seem unable to grasp is that the Comex is NOT the gold market. It is a paper market which has been the recipient of large speculative buys by commodity index funds. These funds take large positions in an entire gamut of commodities based on the weightings of those particular commodities in the various commodity indices that they use as a benchmark. It some cases it might be the Goldman Sachs commodity index. In others it is the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index; it still others it is the Dow Jones Commodity Index. That means they buy gold, silver, crude oil, corn, wheat, nat gas, sugar... etc... in the same percentage terms as they are weighted in those indices. For example, if the weighting in one of these indices for gold happens to be 5%, then for every million dollars of client money invested, they are required to buy $50,000 worth of gold futures contracts at the Comex. When these funds get redemption requests from clients, who now want out of the commodity sector, they are forced to sell FUTURES across the board to generate the cash needed to send back to their clients. That is why, for the most part, the entire commodity complex is sinking whether it is corn or soybeans or wheat or platinum, etc. If $20 million of cash is required to meet client redemption requests, then $20 million of commodity futures must be sold REGARDLESS OF THE FUNDAMENTALS IN THAT PARTICULAR MARKET. In other words, it is FORCED liquidation on account of redemption requests. That has NOTHING TO DO with the real physical gold market where demand remains at unprecedented levels, levels so high that it is producing serious shortages of bullion for would-be buyers. This is what is producing the increasing dichotomy between the Comex and the real gold market. I would go as far as saying that we are for all practical purposes seeing a BLACK MARKET in gold beginning to develop.

Having said all that, it should still be noted however that while every single commodity futures market is in the red today on account of this forced selling, GOLD IS STILL RELATIVELY STABLE! Hey, you dimwitted pundits who keep pooh-poohing the yellow metal?s safe haven status because it is not trading at $1000, take note. Even in spite of the forced liquidation, gold is hanging in there precisely because there are enough buyers to offset a great deal of this continued forced liquidation. And this is in the arena of the futures market. In the real world, gold is fetching $1000 an ounce out there in some instances. Premiums for one ounce gold bullion coins are running anywhere from $65 - $100 above the quoted spot price and certainly above the phony price quoted on the Comex. Last year at this time you could buy all the one ounce gold bullion coins you wanted for $20 - $30 over the spot price.

Meanwhile back in Fairy Tale land at the Comex, open interest registered a bit of an increase in yesterday?s session moving up nearly 2,500 contracts. I suspect that come this Friday, when we review the Commitments of Traders report, we are going to see increases in the fund SHORT category with a sharp drop in the fund long category alongside of short covering by the bullion banks who have been using the forced selling to cover their shorts in order to capture their paper profits allowing them to hit the metal on the next rally and do the same thing all over again.

To put things in perspective about this open interest decline ? we are down to levels last seen in November 2006. Let?s state this in terms that perhaps convey what I have been trying to say for some time now. NEARLY ALL OF THE SPECULATIVE INTEREST THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING PAPER GOLD HIGHER FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS HAS NOW DISAPPEARED due to this forced liquidation. This is incredible when you think about it a bit. So much deleveraging in gold has already occurred, that nearly all the buyers from the last two years are gone from this market. And yet, in spite of this, gold is still sitting above the $800 level. Back in November 2006, front month gold closed at the price of $646.90. Today, we are nearly $200 higher than that and yet nearly all of the speculative long side interest going back to that date is gone. Someone is buying gold because they see value in it and that buying has been sufficient to hold the price relatively firm compared to nearly every other commodity out there. What can be said about gold cannot be said about any other single commodity out there. If you doubt this, pull up the continuous price charts of corn or soybeans or platinum or copper, etc., and just look at them. Look at the chart of crude oil. Look also at the gold/crude oil ratio which has shot up strongly in favor of gold. (By the way, this alone is the reason why many of the gold mining outfits with quality mines, good management and good balance sheets are going to show some strong profits and continue to be sold down to levels that are extremely undervalued). Gold is even outperforming even longer dated Treasuries right now.

To sum up, as the equity markets fall off the cliff thumbing their noses at the monetary authorities, expect further risk aversion to occur which means further forced liquidation in commodities. Watch the Euro/Yen cross and the Yen itself to get a sense of when the bulk of this will abate. The Yen as well as the Swiss Franc are benefiting from the unwinding of carry trades and will tend to be the stronger currencies out there ( along with the US Dollar) as long as the risk aversion play is in vogue.

Trader Dan


That's my view. It is incredible how well gold has held up.
Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

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