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UK House prices: News & Views


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#1 G0ldfinger

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Posted 19 August 2008 - 12:52 PM

This HPC will be much, much worse than 1990.

According to this, we are witnessing a once-in-several-lifetimes event.

Frontrow seat.

http://www.wolseysec...news.php?id=566
QUOTE
Activity levels down over 60% from last housing market crash
Monday 18th August 2008

Wolsey calls for Government action or face the consequences. While the Government continues to flounder on the sidelines, activity in the housing market has sunk to an unprecedented low level. Wolsey Securities is calling on the Government to take urgent action, as activity falls to a low level that even surpasses the slump during the last housing market crash.

With the Bank of England figures showing that only 36,000* mortgage approvals were made in June, the number of housing transactions is currently set to total just over 400,000 this year. This low level represents over a 60% drop in activity on the worst year of the 1990s housing market crash, when transactions ran at around one million.

Mike Ratcliffe, chief executive of Wolsey Securities, comments: "Transaction levels have now dropped to dangerously low levels that have not been seen in several lifetimes. The housing industry cannot sustain this level of trade. Housebuilders are on their knees. If there isn't an improvement soon many will fold, as their cashflows will not be able to meet overheads and interest costs.
==== ====

UPDATED - by DrBubb:

The A-B-C down in UK Property prices, still needs a C down, before it bottoms
Back in 2008, this chart was posted on GEI:

Posted Image

So what happened ?:

Since 2002:

Posted Image

Since 2009: (up to June 2012: £164,489)
Latest: Oct. 2012 : £161,986


You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
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#2 Ziknik

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Posted 19 August 2008 - 01:40 PM

The sooner the **** bag builder fail, the better in my view

#3 Concrete Jungle

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Posted 20 August 2008 - 08:37 AM

Why is there a constant stream of people demanding the government "do something"? Just what are the government supposed to do? unsure.gif


#4 riggerbeautz

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Posted 20 August 2008 - 09:05 AM

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Aug 19 2008, 01:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
According to this, we are witnessing a once-in-several-lifetimes event.

Frontrow seat. ohmy.gif

http://www.wolseysec...news.php?id=566


Latest take from our friendly estate agent says even they don't expect full recovery until 2012, somethings you can't deny, but you can still dress it up wink.gif

http://www.savills.c...ws.aspx?id=9936

19 August 2008

The End Of The Tunnel Is Nearer In The South
The number of transactions in the housing market is half last year's levels and the number of housing starts is likely to fall even further. Supply could therefore become constrained in many markets over the coming months. This means that when the market does bottom out, it may be difficult for investors to make acquisitions. For anyone looking to invest, knowing which regions of the country are likely to recover first and fastest is essential to avoid being timed out by a rising market.


Savills Research has forecast not only the duration and size of the market downturn but also the shape and timing of recovery. Their recovery map forecasts the year in which values will have returned to 2007 levels by UK Government region. It also shows the size of the subsequent house price growth that might be expected by 2020 by recording falls and subsequent rises.

Savills recovery map suggests that London and the South-East will lead the recovery and will quickly return to former levels, by 2012 whilst, in the North-East and Northern Ireland for example, any upturn will occur later and full recovery is unlikely until 2016.

Yolande Barnes, head of Savills residential research explains, "This property market downturn has affected virtually all property sectors and UK regions simultaneously but regions will vary far more when the upturn comes.

"The lack of turnover and new supply which is such a feature of this downturn will be likely to lead to sharp increases in value in high-demand, low supply areas. Competition amongst homeowners will once again lead to rising prices, particularly in those areas with higher levels of housing market equity and stronger household purchasing power such as London, the South East and Scotland".

Key findings include:

London and the South East will lead the recovery so that, by 2012, values will have recovered to those pre-slump.
Between 2008 and 2020 average growth in the South East will be +79%.
Scotland will also have recovered by 2012 with growth between 2008 and 2020 averaging +47%.
On the downside, Northern Ireland and the North East are forecast not to have recovered until 2016 with average growth between 2008 and 2020 of +33% and +19% respectively.
Barnes again, "This downturn is severe and will almost certainly last for at least another year. But it is has been caused by the withdrawal of credit, not the withdrawal of long-term demand or by diminished purchasing power amongst owner occupiers. It is this that will shape the recovery when it comes. Although the credit crisis has affected all sectors and regions more or less equally and simultaneously, we will see a very different pattern in the recovery. Canny investors will take this into account now".



Never stop questioning - Einstein

When you blame others you give up your power to change - Douglas Noel Adams

Beware of MOOD HOOVERS they have a mission.

#5 sonixtorm

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Posted 20 August 2008 - 09:16 PM

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Aug 19 2008, 01:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
According to this, we are witnessing a once-in-several-lifetimes event.

Frontrow seat. ohmy.gif

http://www.wolseysec...news.php?id=566


And now HMRC withhold their figures for this month: http://news.bbc.co.u...ess/7572603.stm

Presumably the method/mechanism of calculation has not changed, so it will be interesting to see what the explanation for this is.


#6 G0ldfinger

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Posted 20 August 2008 - 09:59 PM

QUOTE (sonixtorm @ Aug 20 2008, 10:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
And now HMRC withhold their figures for this month: http://news.bbc.co.u...ess/7572603.stm

Presumably the method/mechanism of calculation has not changed, so it will be interesting to see what the explanation for this is.

Are they so shocked they simply don't want to publish them?? ohmy.gif
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#7 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 20 August 2008 - 10:05 PM

QUOTE (sonixtorm @ Aug 21 2008, 10:16 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
And now HMRC withhold their figures for this month: http://news.bbc.co.u...ess/7572603.stm

Presumably the method/mechanism of calculation has not changed, so it will be interesting to see what the explanation for this is.


unsure.gif unsure.gif unsure.gif

How interesting.

Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

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#8 riggerbeautz

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 06:41 AM

Someone making a brave callat Persimmon! Mike Farley, group chief executive, said: “I hesitate to call this market but it’s not getting any worse.”

http://business.time...icle4578195.ece
Never stop questioning - Einstein

When you blame others you give up your power to change - Douglas Noel Adams

Beware of MOOD HOOVERS they have a mission.

#9 DrBubb

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 07:36 AM

QUOTE (Concrete Jungle @ Aug 20 2008, 09:37 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Why is there a constant stream of people demanding the government "do something"? Just what are the government supposed to do? unsure.gif


Blaming PM Brown, I suppose.
His failed policies are a major cause

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 G0ldfinger

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 10:16 AM

http://www.bloomberg...6...&refer=home
QUOTE
London Real Estate Shakeout Means REITs Lose 50% on Attrition
...
Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- London developers are adding the equivalent of 160 trading floors of office space in the main financial district in the next two years. Their timing couldn't be worse.

Prices for offices in the City of London have plunged 25 percent since last August, the biggest drop since 1992, according to Investment Property Databank Ltd., and rents are declining for the first time in four years, said CB Richard Ellis Group Inc., which estimates rents may drop by a quarter by the end of next year. The commercial property market won't recover until at least 2013, said Mike Prew, a real estate analyst at Lehman Brothers International Europe in London.

U.K. property stocks have fallen by more than half since Britain introduced real estate investment trusts in January 2007. The shares may fall by another 23 percent by the end of 2009 as building values decline and the country slides into a recession, said Morgan Stanley analyst Martin Allen. He has the lowest price target of any analyst covering British Land Co., the biggest landlord and developer in the City.

``We don't have a supply problem, we have a demand problem,'' said Patrick Sumner, head of real estate securities at Henderson Global Investors in London, which owns 1 billion pounds of property stocks. ``Tenants are not going to take big decisions until things are clearer than they are now.''

You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#11 douche dore

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 10:28 AM

QUOTE (Concrete Jungle @ Aug 20 2008, 09:37 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Why is there a constant stream of people demanding the government "do something"? Just what are the government supposed to do? unsure.gif


They could impoverish the next generation by bailing out the stupid and greedy from this generation for starters. rolleyes.gif

#12 douche dore

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 10:41 AM

QUOTE (sonixtorm @ Aug 20 2008, 10:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
And now HMRC withhold their figures for this month: http://news.bbc.co.u...ess/7572603.stm

Presumably the method/mechanism of calculation has not changed, so it will be interesting to see what the explanation for this is.


People are too quick too jump to conspiracy theories when it comes to governments. Usually it is just incompetence.

#13 CharlieSays

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 04:23 PM

Bradford & Bingley's Mortgage Bonds Cut by Moody's

http://www.bloomberg...6...GE&refer=uk

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bradford & Bingley Plc, the U.K.'s biggest lender to landlords, had its top-rated mortgage bonds downgraded by Moody's Investors Service.

Moody's cut the covered bonds one step to Aa1, the New York- based ratings company said in an e-mailed statement today. The bonds of the Bingley, England-based lender remain on review for ``possible further downgrades,'' according to the statement.

...

Late loan repayments have surged amid the worst U.K. housing slump since the 1990s, also harming Bradford & Bingley's business. The mortgage lender said late payments rose to 3.3 percent of all loans as of August. Its market value has tumbled more than 80 percent in the past year.

...

``This is not just a downgrade, it's a downgrade with a watch negative, which is a strong indication that the rating will go down further,'' said Florian Hillenbrand, a covered bond analyst in Munich at UniCredit SpA, Italy's largest bank. ``Nobody knows where it will end.''


#14 G0ldfinger

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 07:36 PM

http://uk.reuters.co...lBrandChannel=0
QUOTE
Banks face double property crash
...
LONDON (Reuters) - British banks are facing big difficulties, as what amounts to a crash in both housing and commercial real estate threatens to devastate their loan portfolios.
...
"The government are going to have to step into the breach. The consumers are borrowed to the hilt and the banking sector is no longer able to provide the consumer with credit. Unless they want to see a major collapse in the financial sector, the government will have to fund the difference and borrow a lot more."

The banks too are flying into the storm with very little put aside as insurance. British residential property loans have done fantastically well during the past decade, arguably making lenders complacent.
...
It is not just capital values which are falling in commercial real estate. Britain's economy and its once vibrant financial sector are being hit hard and many tenants may stop paying rent.
...

You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#15 Ziknik

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Posted 26 August 2008 - 12:06 PM

The monthly BBA release is out. Number of new mortgages approved by British Banks increased by a massive 0.07k (seventy) Seasonally adjusted.

NSA, July 2008 was the worst month ever. (Or at least since 1997 when the data series starts)

http://www.bba.org.u...stats260808.pdf



#16 Ologhai Jones

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Posted 26 August 2008 - 03:02 PM

While we're comparing house-price crashes:



(Assuming this whole ImageShack thing works... wink.gif )

#17 Ziknik

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Posted 26 August 2008 - 04:45 PM

QUOTE (Ologhai Jones @ Aug 26 2008, 04:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
While we're comparing house-price crashes:



(Assuming this whole ImageShack thing works... wink.gif )


According to the Halifax data, we have done 39 months of damage in the first 11 months. And most people I know are still claiming ‘house prices may fall a bit, but they won’t crash’.

Why does your nationwide line start 2 years in?


#18 Ologhai Jones

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Posted 27 August 2008 - 05:48 AM

QUOTE (ziknik @ Aug 26 2008, 05:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Why does your nationwide line start 2 years in?


Because the Nationwide monthly data I have doesn't go as far back as the Halifax data.

Assuming I haven't just overlooked a better dataset, if you take a look on Nationwide's website, their historical monthly data only goes back to '91.

It's a conspiracy! wink.gif

#19 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 27 August 2008 - 06:08 AM

QUOTE (Ologhai Jones @ Aug 27 2008, 05:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Because the Nationwide monthly data I have doesn't go as far back as the Halifax data.

Assuming I haven't just overlooked a better dataset, if you take a look on Nationwide's website, their historical monthly data only goes back to '91.

It's a conspiracy! wink.gif


UK Series - House prices since 1952 biggrin.gif

Quarterly. You'll just have to fiddle it by hand biggrin.gif

Nice chart. I look forward to the updated version tongue.gif laugh.gif

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#20 Ziknik

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Posted 27 August 2008 - 03:28 PM

QUOTE (Steve Netwriter @ Aug 27 2008, 07:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
UK Series - House prices since 1952 biggrin.gif

Quarterly. You'll just have to fiddle it by hand biggrin.gif

Nice chart. I look forward to the updated version tongue.gif laugh.gif


Link
http://www.nationwid..._since_1952.xls




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