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CHRIS MARTENSON Videos with screenshots - Vids 1 to 20 & Latest News


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#1 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 05:00 AM

"There is nothing more important you have to do than watch these videos" - Chris Martenson

0. Introduction
Who is Chris, and what are these videos about?
Watch the video at the bottom of this page: http://www.chrismart...com/crashcourse




1. Three Beliefs
http://www.chrismart...m/three_beliefs




2. The Three Es
http://www.chrismart...om/the_three_Es




3. Exponential Growth
http://www.chrismart...onential_growth




4. Compounding is the Problem
http://www.chrismart..._is_the_problem




5. Growth versus Prosperity
http://www.chrismart...h_vs_prosperity




6. What is Money?
http://www.chrismart...m/what_is_money




7. Money Creation
http://www.chrismart.../money_creation




continued.....
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#2 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 05:00 AM

8. The Fed - Money Creation
http://www.chrismartenson.com/node/324




9. A Brief History of Money
http://www.chrismart...ory_of_US_money




10. Inflation
http://www.chrismart...n.com/inflation




11. How Much is a Trillion
http://www.chrismart...h_is_a_trillion




12. Debt
http://www.chrismartenson.com/debt




13. A National Failure to Save
http://www.chrismart...failure-to-save




14. Assets & Demographics
http://www.chrismart...nd-demographics




15. Bubbles
http://www.chrismartenson.com/bubbles




16. Fuzzy Numbers
http://www.chrismart...m/fuzzy_numbers




17. Peak Oil
http://www.chrismartenson.com/peak_oil

Part A:


Part B:


Part C:



18: Environmental Data
http://www.chrismart...ironmental_data




The above sections are done, the lower ones are coming:
Section 19: Future Shock
Section 20: What Should I Do...?


How long will it take?
Completed sections are between 3 and 14 minutes in length, meaning that all 20 sections should take about 2.5 hours.

What is it?
The Crash Course seeks to provide you with a baseline understanding of the economy so that you can better appreciate the risks that we all face.

Then what do I do?
I suggest you start by looking at this section of the website, and read the Breaking News:
http://www.chrismart...content-listing

Then register & look around.


How to save and watch offline
If using Firefox, you can save each one with DownLoadHelper.
Then rename the .flv files to .swf files.

To play:
1. Drag and drop into a browser to then watch them.
or
2. Right click and select "open with..." and then pick a browser (Firefox, IE etc), and tick "always open with", so all .swf files are opened with your browser.
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#3 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 11 August 2008 - 04:24 AM

This two part interview with Chris Martenson is extremely interesting.
It expands on the current videos, but also goes into Peak Oil, and gives quite a clue into what the last 4 videos are going to cover.

Chris interviewed on Corporate Watchdog Radio (12/04/2008):
http://www.chrismart...-watchdog-radio

Starts at 06:30
Download: http://homepage.mac....-2008-04-09.mp3


Chris on Corporate Watchdog Radio - PART II (16/04/2008):
http://www.chrismart...g-radio-part-ii

Starts at 10:00
Download: http://homepage.mac....-2008-04-16.mp3
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#4 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 11 August 2008 - 04:25 AM

Don't forget to register in order to gain access to the ACT area. The minimal effort is well worth it IMO.

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#5 Layman

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Posted 11 August 2008 - 10:51 PM

QUOTE (Steve Netwriter @ Aug 10 2008, 06:00 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I just sat down to watch this series and unfortunately this chapter has got me rattled.

Chris says that "you are here" on an exponential graph.
He then says "You happen to live at a time, when hundreds of individual graphs are all approaching the vertical phase of their exponential trajectory"

Now this puzzles me - because, frankly, it's utter bollocks!

Chris has already explained that an exponential function (or graph) grows at a continous rate. He talks about population growing at 1%.

Now if you take *any* exponential graph and you're at the end of it (i.e. the right hand side) you will *always* be in the vertical phase! The thing grows by a fixed multiple in each time period!

So to say that we "happen" to be in a particularly vertical phase of the graphs for population, oil consumption and money supply is non-sensical. They are continually increasing and if you'd carried out the same exercise 50 years ago you would get the same results. The scaling would be different (e.g. instead of the peak being $10Trn it would be $2Bn) but the shape would still be the same and the WOW factor would still be there. If we carry on as we are and you plot the graph again in 20 years time, today will seem like a non-event and suddenly THEN will be the "vertical phase".

This to me seriously undermines whatever it is Chris is about to say - which is a shame, judging by all the comments folks have made about his videos. sad.gif


#6 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 12 August 2008 - 02:53 AM

Bobsta,
I want to reply to your post in full when I get time. It's a very good point, and one I've been thinking about.

But in short, I think it comes down to whether it is an unbounded or bounded system.

More as soon as I've done some charts to explain my point.

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#7 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 13 August 2008 - 03:02 AM

Exponential Growth

OK, here's what I mean.

This shows a variety of growth rates:




Now by overlaying the 10% curve plotted separately to fill the same size chart area, you get this:




So the higher the growth rate, the sharper the curve with a fixed boundary.

And the higher the boundary with a fixed growth rate, the sharper the curve.


So, I think with a real world bounded system, like population, oil resources etc etc, you are limited in how you can draw it.
Unlike money, which knows no bounds laugh.gif

So I think Chris is right when he talks about a "take off point". There is always a 'kink' in the curve between flattish and rockets away biggrin.gif

I think it also shows how a small growth rate is manageable for a very long time.
But a higher one causes real problems really quickly.
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#8 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 14 August 2008 - 05:32 AM

I have applied the views expressed in this Chris Martenson video:

15. Bubbles
http://www.chrismartenson.com/bubbles



to New Zealand house prices, and come up with this:




This makes an assumption about the rate of price inflation. If this was in fact higher, then nominal house prices would fall less, and more real value would be lost due to price inflation.
If inflation is lower than assumed, then nominal house prices would fall more, and less would be lost through inflation.
Either way, in real terms, there will be a loss. It just depends whether it is as noticeable in the prices advertised, or whether it is more hidden by inflation.

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#9 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 18 August 2008 - 04:50 AM

Crash Course Update - When will it be finished?
08/15/2008
http://www.chrismart...-it-be-finished

QUOTE
I’ve been asked a lot lately about when the remaining Crash Course chapters will be done. I even set a target of Wednesday (two days ago) as a completion date.
.....
I am getting in about 10 hours a day on the Crash Course (and not a lot of sleep). At this pace I will finish by month’s end, or thereabouts. I seem to be unable to lower my quality standards, and so I will simply work as hard as I can to complete this task. This will be a huge relief, as it will allow me to concentrate more fully on analyzing and writing reports about the current state of the economy, working on my book, and providing subscribers with more value.


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#10 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 21 August 2008 - 04:54 AM

In the real world, it seems very unlikely that we would have exponential growth until the resources were exhausted, and then usage would instant;y drop to zero.
In practice we are more likely to see:

Sigmoid function
http://en.wikipedia....igmoid_function

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#11 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 21 August 2008 - 05:29 AM

There has been a very long discussion here:

new Chris Martenson
July 4 - Bubbles, August 5 - Fuzzy Numbers
http://www.greenener...mp;hl=martenson

about the exponential function. I do not want that repeated here.

I find this quite ironic considering this:



Prof. Albert Bartlett
The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See (parts 1 of 8) - great videos on basic economics, like what exponential growth is, 70 / % = years to double
Posted by: http://www.youtube.c...wonderingmind42
Part 1:
Part 2:
Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFyOw9IgtjY
Part 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQd-VGYX3-E
Part 5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHuwgxrTKPo
Part 6: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3y7UlHdhAU
Part 7: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyseLQVpJEI
Part 8: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoiiVnQadwE

----------------

Re-reading Bobsta's post:

QUOTE
Now if you take *any* exponential graph and you're at the end of it (i.e. the right hand side) you will *always* be in the vertical phase!


I now see what was meant.

Yes, if you draw any exponential function from the start of time to now, you will be at the 'vertical' phase of the curve. I agree.

But, I don't think that is what Chris means at all.

I think this is what Chris means.

1. First you have to estimate the total resources available. Yes it's an estimate, but that's what you do.

2. Then you draw the exponential function from the start of time until the resources are exhausted. This is very important. It is not drawn just to 'now'.

The result is that most of the time 'now' will be somewhere on the curve.

I think the point Chris is making is this. We are getting close to the end time of a number of curves drawn as in (2). So we are on the vertical phases of them.

I do not want to get back into an excessively long discussion about the maths of the exponential function.
It is explained simply here:

Exponential Growth
http://www.math.corn...tyuk/num109.htm

QUOTE
In plain words, this means that x grows exponentially if it increases proportionally to its own value. Most often exponential growth occurs in situations where "x creates more x", typical examples being population growth and compound interest. Exponential growth can occur both when the time intervals are discrete, for example in annual or monthly interest compounding, and when the time variable is continuous, as in continuous compounding of interest or modelling of large populations. The discrete time case is more often encountered in practice and is easier to analyse mathematically, since we don't need to resort to the exponential function.


Any suggestion that 3% growth per year is not a simple function is just plain wrong.

Now having re-watched Prof Albert Bartlett's videos, I realise that using the "doubling time" makes thinking about this even easier.

As he explains, the doubling time ~= 70 / growth rate.

eg if the growth rate is 7%/year, the doubling time = 70 / 7 = 10 years.

It is then easier to imagine doubling the value every n years.

That gives this type of curve, with each doubling point marked:



It is no more complex than this.

A tree has 15 apples.

Day 1: Eat 1 apple.
Day 2: Eat twice as many = 2. Total consumed = 3.
Day 3: Eat twice as many = 4. Total consumed = 7.
Day 3: Eat twice as many = 8. Total consumed = 15.

There are no more apples.
Please note: On the last day, ~ half the apples were consumed. It took 3x days to consume the ~ first half.
This simply demonstrates how growth rates result in a vertical phase, which are relatively short.


Can you answer this question from Part 3 of 8 of Prof. Albert Bartlett's video series ?


If not, please watch it until you can.

I repeat:



IMO it's vital this is understood.
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#12 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 10:20 PM

Just out:

17. Peak Oil
http://www.chrismartenson.com/peak_oil




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#13 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 27 August 2008 - 12:14 AM

I'm puzzled as to why this thread has only received 127 views.
I know most people will have already watched he videos, but I had hoped the screenshots would have been useful, and the extra stuff I've posted.

This thread discusses Peak Oil & Carbon Credits:

Climate Change, Carbon Credits & Peak Oil, Why Carbon Credits are the Wrong Solution
http://www.greenener...?showtopic=4101


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#14 Guest_Dramatic Exit_*

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Posted 27 August 2008 - 10:20 AM

QUOTE (Steve Netwriter @ Aug 27 2008, 01:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm puzzled as to why this thread has only received 127 views.

It's an extremely good and useful thread, I'll be linking people here. Thanks for the work Steve!

In all honesty, I hadn't spotted the forum. I do wonder if there are slightly too many forums for the current userbase. Still, I've found it now smile.gif

#15 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 27 August 2008 - 10:29 AM

Thanks biggrin.gif

Do you use this ? biggrin.gif



PS You do need to be logged in to see this area, so if you point anyone here, you'll need to explain that.

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#16 Guest_Dramatic Exit_*

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 10:44 AM

QUOTE (Steve Netwriter @ Aug 27 2008, 11:29 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
PS You do need to be logged in to see this area, so if you point anyone here, you'll need to explain that.

I'm not meaning to question the powers-that-be; however wouldn't it make sense for the Beginners Forum to be available publicly to entice people into joining - instead of only seeing the heavier stuff? jm2c.

And aye, I should really use View New posts.. A habit I got out of after being a moderator on multi-language forums sad.gif

#17 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 11:07 AM

Question away biggrin.gif
I was thinking the same thing. It all used to be available to all, but some got disabled for visitors because the hit rate was causing problems.
On the new host we might be OK now to make it all available again.
I'll ask him upstairs biggrin.gif

A multi-language forum laugh.gif
Now that is one good reason for not using it laugh.gif

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#18 hellodrnick

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 11:18 AM

QUOTE (Bobsta @ Aug 11 2008, 11:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I just sat down to watch this series and unfortunately this chapter has got me rattled.

Chris says that "you are here" on an exponential graph.
He then says "You happen to live at a time, when hundreds of individual graphs are all approaching the vertical phase of their exponential trajectory"

Now this puzzles me - because, frankly, it's utter bollocks!

Chris has already explained that an exponential function (or graph) grows at a continous rate. He talks about population growing at 1%.

Now if you take *any* exponential graph and you're at the end of it (i.e. the right hand side) you will *always* be in the vertical phase! The thing grows by a fixed multiple in each time period!

So to say that we "happen" to be in a particularly vertical phase of the graphs for population, oil consumption and money supply is non-sensical. They are continually increasing and if you'd carried out the same exercise 50 years ago you would get the same results. The scaling would be different (e.g. instead of the peak being $10Trn it would be $2Bn) but the shape would still be the same and the WOW factor would still be there. If we carry on as we are and you plot the graph again in 20 years time, today will seem like a non-event and suddenly THEN will be the "vertical phase".

This to me seriously undermines whatever it is Chris is about to say - which is a shame, judging by all the comments folks have made about his videos. sad.gif

I agree.

also, the peak oil video is weak. no mention of the cartel controlling production, price etc.

no mention of any undeclared fileds like under Alaska, or the claims that there is another 200 years worth oil.

Nick


#19 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 04:02 AM

Part B & C are now out:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/peak_oil

Part B:


Part C:



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#20 Commander T

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 05:44 PM

A Humbling set on peak oil.

^ My words do not constitute financial advice, please do your own research.

 

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