kernull Posted August 1, 2008 Report Share Posted August 1, 2008 i don't know, but this looks to me like the V-shaped bottom Jim Puplava was saying about, and if he is right, there will be no 110 oil! If we are speaking about hyperinflation here, the 120 oil is equal to 110 oil a year ago just in "normal" 10% shadow-stats terms .... dollar rally? haha! so far 125 level vas passed, monday will be the consolidation and tuesday probably test of 132. as for gold, maybe we are going even higher, to the 1000 level instead of 950. we have to watch oil very carefuly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted August 1, 2008 Report Share Posted August 1, 2008 i don't know, but this looks to me like the V-shaped bottom Jim Puplava was saying about, and if he is right, there will be no 110 oil! If we are speaking about hyperinflation here, the 120 oil is equal to 110 oil a year ago just in "normal" 10% shadow-stats terms .... dollar rally? haha! so far 125 level vas passed, monday will be the consolidation and tuesday probably test of 132. as for gold, maybe we are going even higher, to the 1000 level instead of 950. we have to watch oil very carefuly. Over next few months, I woudn't be surprised to see a smallish rise in POO for a few weeks, followed by a big drop to 100 justified on the basis of 'unfolding global slowdown'. Plus the PPT will do all they can to help it fall. But looking at next few years, prices will go very high and 150 dollar oil will seem cheap! Gold, however, doesn't seem to care too much what oil does between 100-150. Instead, gold seems to rally best when the dollar tanks ...and that's what I suspect we'll see this autumn. Add in the autumn rally in gold prices (mid Aug to first 10 days of Sept), and there's every chance we'll see gold touch 1200 by year end. Next week may well see some strengthening of gold (getting ready for a big increase) but I doubt we'll see a big change on Monday especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted August 1, 2008 Report Share Posted August 1, 2008 Over next few months, I woudn't be surprised to see a smallish rise in POO for a few weeks, followed by a big drop to 100 justified on the basis of 'unfolding global slowdown'. Plus the PPT will do all they can to help it fall. But looking at next few years, prices will go very high and 150 dollar oil will seem cheap! I just posted the picture of what it might look here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....amp;#entry51303 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted August 2, 2008 Report Share Posted August 2, 2008 Platinums looking cheaper at $1658 compared to gold $910. Or is platinum overpriced as its not money, just an industrial commodity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinBrick Posted August 2, 2008 Report Share Posted August 2, 2008 Or is platinum overpriced as its not money, just an industrial commodity? I think the rationale is recession = fewer car sales = less demand for platinum in catalytic converters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted August 2, 2008 Report Share Posted August 2, 2008 Do people think we have now bottomed out on this correction? Support seems solid at around $900. I was a bit trigger happy at $950 but held some cash back so I want as low a price as I can get for my last £5k. Some think it may revisit $850-$870. Does anyone here think that is probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted August 2, 2008 Report Share Posted August 2, 2008 I have to wait a week for funds to come through. Price seems pretty good to me at the mo... but will be just my luck if it goes up a bit next week. No doubt I will once again buy on payday faster than I can check the spot price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattFC Posted August 2, 2008 Report Share Posted August 2, 2008 I think the rationale is recession = fewer car sales = less demand for platinum in catalytic converters Re platinum as a catalyst see http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3922 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinBrick Posted August 2, 2008 Report Share Posted August 2, 2008 Re platinum as a catalyst see http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3922 Casey Daily Resource also cites an improved supply situation in South Africa as a factor in driving down the price. http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayDrp.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=15414 A veteran Café member has been taking delivery of silver contracts out of the Comex for 8 years and has accumulated a position of 300,000 ounces. Normally, when he takes delivery, he is issued the contract on the first day of the month. The "issuers" do so in order to get their money as soon as possible from the "stopper," or buyer. This time, however, our Café member buyer did not receive his delivery until today, or the LAST day of the month and delivery period. In addition, the clearing firm whom he does business with actually called him to ask him if he was sure he wanted delivery. Could this means the silver market is as tight as we think it is, supporting other anecdotal evidence of real tightness? The way silver has traded of late, that is a very strong probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 I thought that was about Coffee for a minute Ron Paul Warns Glenn Beck Something Big Is About to Happen with Economy 7/29/2008 Part 1: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=33a_1217420376 Part 2: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=59b_1217420640 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 Fisher's Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions and a possible revision http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-m...ssible_revision I have been both a central banker and a market regulator. I now find myself questioning whether my early career, largely devoted to liberalising and deregulating banking and financial markets, was misguided. In short, I wonder whether I contributed - along with a countless others in regulation, banking, academia and politics - to a great misallocation of capital, distortion of markets and the impairment of the real economy. I'm sure you've seen the US debt charts like this: http://bp3.blogger.com/_rWY3qGfe6gc/SI1dtC...h/Picture+1.png Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions (1933) - some bedtime reading http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/meltzer/fisdeb33.pdf This comment popped out at me: The cause of serial bubbles is no mystery to Congressman Ron Paul, Republican candidate for President or for any other Austrian economic thinker. It has not been free markets that have caused serial bubbles and the huge mis allocation of resources but rather the absence of free markets caused by fiat (or forced) used of government defined money rather than allowing markets to define and determine what is used as a medium of exchange. Conventional wisdom (Keynesian and monetarist in origin) holds that whenever there is market turmoil (usually caused by prior excessive money creation out of thin air) is met with even more money created out of thin air. During Alan Greenspan's tenure at the Fed he pumped so much liquidity into the banking system that bankers were forced to seek more and more absurd ways to try to allocate that money to maximize profits. The result when money is created out of thin air rather than allowing commodity money to prevail is what the Austrians call "mal (bad) investment. The result of Alan Greenspan's monetary promiscuity during the 1990s was bad enough. He created the dot com and telecommunication bubbles which when bursting, resulted in trillions of lost wealth. Those enterprises which were funded with all that funny money, simply were not viable but because of the excess cash wealth was mis-allocated. But the 1990s was child's play compared to what was to come in the politically charged house funding scam that was to follow. And now the piper must be paid. Like it or not, we are heading back to real money -- to gold or silver or some form of money that cannot be created by lies, but must be won from the earth in a very difficult manner. What has happened with the debasement of the dollar via fiat money has been one of the biggest wealth reallocating scams in history form those who produce wealth--the farmer, miners, manufacturers, inventors, etc. to the politicians and bankers in a fascist arrangement that is not only leading the U.S. into poverty but worse is likely to result in the total loss of our freedoms. And when that happens, a recovery may be many generations away. Such was the message of Ron Paul. But the establishment couldn't laugh at him hard and often enough to try to discredit the Austrian economic truths he was espousing. God help us all as we face what is looking more and more like a hyper inflationary future. Written by Jay Taylor, Editor J Taylor's Gold & Technology Stocks newsletter on 2008-08-01 16:35:54 A bit of "reflatio" anyone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mazon Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 "I have been both a central banker and a market regulator. I now find myself questioning whether my early career, largely devoted to liberalising and deregulating banking and financial markets, was misguided. In short, I wonder whether I contributed - along with a countless others in regulation, banking, academia and politics - to a great misallocation of capital, distortion of markets and the impairment of the real economy." Well, though he still wonders, at least he's on the path to self-discovery. "The cause of serial bubbles is no mystery to Congressman Ron Paul, Republican candidate for President or for any other Austrian economic thinker. It has not been free markets that have caused serial bubbles and the huge mis allocation of resources but rather the absence of free markets caused by fiat (or forced) used of government defined money rather than allowing markets to define and determine what is used as a medium of exchange. Conventional wisdom (Keynesian and monetarist in origin) holds that whenever there is market turmoil (usually caused by prior excessive money creation out of thin air) is met with even more money created out of thin air. During Alan Greenspan's tenure at the Fed he pumped so much liquidity into the banking system that bankers were forced to seek more and more absurd ways to try to allocate that money to maximize profits. The result when money is created out of thin air rather than allowing commodity money to prevail is what the Austrians call "mal (bad) investment. The result of Alan Greenspan's monetary promiscuity during the 1990s was bad enough. He created the dot com and telecommunication bubbles which when bursting, resulted in trillions of lost wealth. Those enterprises which were funded with all that funny money, simply were not viable but because of the excess cash wealth was mis-allocated. But the 1990s was child's play compared to what was to come in the politically charged house funding scam that was to follow. And now the piper must be paid. Like it or not, we are heading back to real money -- to gold or silver or some form of money that cannot be created by lies, but must be won from the earth in a very difficult manner. What has happened with the debasement of the dollar via fiat money has been one of the biggest wealth reallocating scams in history form those who produce wealth--the farmer, miners, manufacturers, inventors, etc. to the politicians and bankers in a fascist arrangement that is not only leading the U.S. into poverty but worse is likely to result in the total loss of our freedoms. And when that happens, a recovery may be many generations away. Such was the message of Ron Paul. But the establishment couldn't laugh at him hard and often enough to try to discredit the Austrian economic truths he was espousing. God help us all as we face what is looking more and more like a hyper inflationary future. Written by Jay Taylor, Editor J Taylor's Gold & Technology Stocks newsletter on 2008-08-01 16:35:54" That's not bad: Keynes, promiscuity, fascism and God. He would've won the car if he hadn't forgotten socialism/communism and the cuddly toy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 OMG this is awful. Peak Gold !!! Growing demand and reducing supply. 3rd Hour with Jim & John * Gold Fundamentals: Other viewpoints * If: Keeping your head when others are losing theirs http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0802-3a.mp3 Looks like the price could be going up. How awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 I have noticed a reduction in the quantity of Gold coins that are available on ebay recently, and also the seem to be making a higher price at end of auction. Is this because sellers are on summer holiday and demand is outstripping supply on ebay? Or is this a change of sentiment? Are those with gold not so keen to sell and buyers paying over the odds? You can often buy gold coins cheaper from a dealer than on ebay, depending on quantities and postage etc. I got a sovereign for £105 last week but I think that was a fluke. Regarding Silver, there is a reduction in the availability of bullion silver coins and bars on ebay. Not many eagles, maples, philharmonics, britannia's, ounce and kilo bars. Is this the summer doldrums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LauraB Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 OMG this is awful. Peak Gold !!! Looks like the price could be going up. How awful Aren't I pleased that my lower than apparent MV bids via Bullionvault were accepted over the weekend. I have no idea why/care/how it happened, but I have another trusty electronic receipt to say I bought another pile, bit by bit. Though at 905$ in the morning I may be a touch peed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 Do people think we have now bottomed out on this correction? very difficult time right now. Technically we have tops in commodities index (CRB), and the people who have a lot of money wait for technical buy signal to enter, this is why we hold at 900 level. The CRB charts look like they made a 7 year high, and (same as stocks) are retesting march lows of 380 on CRB, currently 415. If platinum, copper, soybeans and other hard assets drop in price, gold is not likely to rally even on financial woes. So, traders are most likely to sell on current economic news. Monday-tuesday oil has to make a decision. Either it will bottom at 120 level or not. This is very important support level, because if it doesn't hold, gold, together with other commodities will go lower. If oil confirms the support expcect a big run in everything from gold to pork bellies, and of course, 900 gold will be history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 Out of interest is your partner a believer in gold? Goldbugging is largely a male past time, so I was just curious if you had the support of your partner or whether you are a rogue goldbugger much like myself. Aren't I pleased that my lower than apparent MV bids via Bullionvault were accepted over the weekend. I have no idea why/care/how it happened, but I have another trusty electronic receipt to say I bought another pile, bit by bit. Though at 905$ in the morning I may be a touch peed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 ... The CRB charts look like they made a 7 year high, and (same as stocks) are retesting march lows of 380 on CRB, currently 415. If platinum, copper, soybeans and other hard assets drop in price, gold is not likely to rally even on financial woes. So, traders are most likely to sell on current economic news. ... Not sure. As a recent case reported in the media has shown, even the people where you would expect it the least seem to be slowly waking up to the fact that gold is not just a commodity, but most importantly of all it is real, indestructible money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 Is it a bank holiday in the far east today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 I'm still, naturally, bullish on gold but I'm concerned at its apparent inability to decouple from the fortunes of crude oil. The dollar's toast and yet the efforts of a PPT with the burdens of an extended discount window and Freddie/Fannie to bear are able to depress the price of the de facto inflation hedge almost at will. I'm hoping that Autumn will see gold resume its ascent towards the much-vaunted $1000 mark buthave to the admit, the PPT's done a hell of a job making us wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonobo Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 I have noticed a reduction in the quantity of Gold coins that are available on ebay recently, and also the seem to be making a higher price at end of auction. Is this because sellers are on summer holiday and demand is outstripping supply on ebay? Or is this a change of sentiment? Are those with gold not so keen to sell and buyers paying over the odds? You can often buy gold coins cheaper from a dealer than on ebay, depending on quantities and postage etc. I got a sovereign for £105 last week but I think that was a fluke. Regarding Silver, there is a reduction in the availability of bullion silver coins and bars on ebay. Not many eagles, maples, philharmonics, britannia's, ounce and kilo bars. Is this the summer doldrums? I noticed a couple of full sovereigns going for a BIN price of £100 each last week. If you keep an eye out you can often find a sucker who doesn't know the real worth of gold Bought a half sovereign last week on ebay for £40. Madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 Good stuff: 1-smart money 2-institutional 3-holy shit, I better buy some gold ... http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=15515 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 I have noticed a reduction in the quantity of Gold coins that are available on ebay recently, and also the seem to be making a higher price at end of auction. Is this because sellers are on summer holiday and demand is outstripping supply on ebay? Or is this a change of sentiment? ... Maybe it's the latter one. Regarding Silver, there is a reduction in the availability of bullion silver coins and bars on ebay. Not many eagles, maples, philharmonics, britannia's, ounce and kilo bars. ... What are the best dealers in the UK to get those? Is coindirect (or how they'e called) any good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 4, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 4, 2008 Excellent article by Adrian Ash of BullionVault. For the people interested in real interest rates. http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2008/0801.html Last Warning? Reflation Part II ... ... So why didn't gold take a dive when Greenspan's successor – Ben Bernanke – tip-toed his way back to 4% real rates of interest in late 2006...? Because early gold buyers never believed the Fed would succeed in keeping rates there. With housing now a political issue – and home ownership a god-given right for even the flakiest debtors – the first sign of trouble would cause a collapse in real rates, destroying the value of money in the hope of achieving "Reflation Part II". ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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