7 replies to this topic

[Steve Netwriter]

I think you may find this interesting, and surprising.

Here are the weekly charts for gold and silver in US$:
(All these charts have 45,55,65 week moving averages = 225,275,325 day ma)





A reasonable fit from mid 2006 to mid 2007, but not on the recent dips.


Here are the weekly charts for gold and silver in EUR:





A better fit in some ways, but not quite right.


Here are the weekly charts for gold and silver in JPY:

Are you ready for this !!!!!





It's not perfect, but IMO it's by far the best fit.

If you used the 55 week (275 day) moving average for gold you'd be able to predict the bottoms pretty well.
If you used the 45 week (225 day) moving average for silver, you'd be able to predict the bottoms pretty well.


Now what does this mean ?
Does it mean that there is a big trade in gold and silver with Yen ?
Or is it that Yen is the anti-US$ and Euro, and so moves more like gold and silver ?

Are we going to see more importance put on the price of gold & silver in JPY ?
I'll certainly be watching the charts in JPY more from now on

Your thoughts please


You can view the charts yourself here:

Weekly with 45,55,65 week ma = 225,275,325 day:
Gold:US$: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p06579893092
Silver:US$: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SIL...id=p06579893092
Gold:XEU: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p06579893092
Silver:XEU: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SIL...id=p06579893092
Gold:XJY: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p06579893092
Silver:XJY: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SIL...id=p06579893092

[Steve Netwriter]

I'd lost this thread  
I'm still following this method:
Copied from the silver thread:

---------------------

This has become my favourite indicator for "almost guaranteed" good buying times. So far anyway.
The silver chart in Yen, with a 225 day moving average (45 weeks) - blue line.




The daily chart now says to me "Buy".




Confirmation of this is that most 'weak' margin traders now appear to be out of the market. Sorry guys.
If so, it unlikely to go any lower.


Given the close links between the movements in gold & silver, this also indicates the same thing for gold.

[Steve Netwriter]

Significantly more failures to indicate bottoms using the SilverUS$ chart with a 200day MA:



With 40 week (200 day), 45 week (225 day) and 55 week (275 day) moving averages:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SIL...id=p05709201527

[Steve Netwriter]

What does this say about gold ?



The reliability is slightly worse than with silver. Maybe the more reliable silver one is a good indicator for gold ?

With 40 week (200 day), 45 week (225 day) and 55 week (275 day) moving averages:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p03960239141

[Steve Netwriter]

At the time I created the "Buy" chart, this is what gold & silver were doing in US$:






Time will tell whether that turns out to be the bottom.
It'll be interesting to see how well I can do at this.

[tinecu]

I think you are onto something here steve.

After all Japan is the worlds biggest creditor and we are in a credit crisis...the Yen has be the pivotal currency.

[Steve Netwriter]

Well I think so. I'm just trying to work out why. Yes, the Yen carry trade must be very significant at the moment.

Maybe this is part of it.

If you consider gold/silver as just another currency (for the purpose of thinking about this), then gold/silver move in the inverse to the US$.
So looking at the US$ price of gold/silver include the movement of the US$, rather than "just" the gold/silver market.

Now you can see from this the correlation between the Yen and gold/silver movement.
Yen is the anti-US$.

So maybe the gold/silver price in Yen better reflects just the gold/silver market, with the US$ movement stripped out.




If anyone has a better explanation, I'd love to hear it.

[Steve Netwriter]

Gold & Silver in US$, EUR & JPY with MAs, Is this the perfect buying time tool ?

No.


I still think it's got some merit, but it certainly failed with silver !