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GOLD Investment, & trading / April 2008 : #2


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 12:21 PM

(from the GOLD thread on Advfn):

energyi - 31 Mar'08 - 18:22 - #37351

Gold is doing what it NEEDS TO DO, ie retest the recent lows.

And (so far) it is doing so on lightish volume. THAT IS GOOD

GLD (gold's etf) ... update : 6months-Daily : 3mos-daily : Intraday-10days : GBS-intraday


= == ==

The March GOLD Discussion thread, had

posts : 3,063 / started by: G0ldfinger // Hits : 76,163

A new thread each month makes it Far easier to find old posts.
It's a GEI tradition. I hope peopel do not mind.
If you do, let's discuss it
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 12:23 PM

QUOTE (wren @ Mar 31 2008, 12:33 PM)
(30 March 2008) Technically Speaking with Burak is as follows for both silver and gold :

Short term: BEARISH
Medium term: NEUTRAL
Long term: BULLISH

Link here:
http://www.gold-eagl...urak033008.html
=====

So, an ideal time to be average-buying.
= says GF


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 12:25 PM

QUOTE (Bobsta @ Mar 31 2008, 11:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think you spoke a bit too soon....



Looks like we got the capitulation. sad.gif

I'm not sure we're done yet. Could we get a test of $900 today?

We haven't really bounced yet either, so we could have further to go. I haven't seen the volume but I'd imagine it's going to be quite large and sustained. Time for caution methinks.
= says M.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 12:26 PM

QUOTE (marceau @ Mar 31 2008, 01:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm lining up to add to my core position below $910. The only thing that concerns me is the speed with which we've fallen so far.

I'm almost 100% sure we'll get down to $905 over the next few days, even if it is only for a few seconds, before the journey back to the old highs and beyond begins again. Doesn't stop me feeling nervous about buying though. unsure.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 wren

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 12:37 PM

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Mar 31 2008, 08:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
So, an ideal time to be average-buying.

Yes, if I had a large pile of cash I would consider cost-averaging over a multi-week time period.

This is a healthy correction and it may go lower in the coming couple of months, I feel, but as always who knows?
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#6 marceau

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 12:38 PM

Heh, didn't see the April thread, so I hope you'll excuse the double post.

Anyway, I agree with Bubb and have been expecting this move. The only thing that concerns me is the speed with which we've fallen so far, but I'm still lining up to add to my core position around the $905 mark.

I'm almost 100% sure we'll get down to $905 over the next few days, even if it is only for a few seconds, before the journey back to the old highs and beyond begins again. Doesn't stop me feeling nervous about buying, but if gold wants to surprise to the downside, then so be it, I'll have called it wrong in the short term but the medium/long term price should prove me right in the end.

As always, vigilance is the key, if I see something I don't like then I won't hesitate to cancel the buy. Best of luck guys, I wish you all a successful April.

#7 wren

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 12:39 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Mar 31 2008, 08:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
A new thread each month makes it Far easier to find old posts.
It's a GEI tradition. I hope peopel do not mind.

Yes, this is the way. Maybe you should lock the old thread now, as your post and link are clear.

Gold and financial news: 24knews
Video at guardian.co.uk: Gold for Food in Zimbabwe.
Video at YouTube: Buying groceries with silver in California.
Energy Bulletin A daily news site about oil, natural gas, food, transportation and their economic and social ramifications.

#8 DrBubb

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 12:40 PM

QUOTE (marceau @ Mar 31 2008, 12:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Heh, didn't see the April thread, so I hope you'll excuse the double post.

Anyway, I agree with Bubb and have been expecting this move. The only thing that concerns me is the speed with which we've fallen so far, but I'm still lining up to add to my core position around the $905 mark.

I'm almost 100% sure we'll get down to $905 over the next few days, even if it is only for a few seconds...


The volume is alot LESS on this drop, thank good ness !

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 G0ldfinger

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 12:44 PM

QUOTE
Monetization of MBSs and the price gold (March 31, 2008)

Many observers have recently commented on what it means when the US Federal Reserve effectively takes mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) on their balance sheet. Notably, Jim Sinclair, the legendary gold trader and founder of JSMineset, has repeatedly done so. In the following, we have a look at a very simple example that demonstrates the possible devastation in the Fed's balance sheet and the effect on the price of gold when such MBSs are taken on at almost face value when at the same time the markets would price them at much lower levels. ...

http://gold.approxim...nalysis.html#F6
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
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#10 marceau

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 12:47 PM

Long term trend line at $915/6 just breached. Could get to $905 in the next few hours now.

Edit: I hadn't been watching oil, it's flirting with $100. Makes me feel strangely bullish for some reason.

#11 safebetter

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 01:31 PM

More on the gold lease rates, don't think this has been posted:

http://www.gata.org/node/6188

"In the past few days a strange thing has happened. Australia's The Privateer says, "the shorter term (one and two-month) rates have actually gone into negative territory this week."

In other words, gold is being supplied to the market by the central banks. The Privateer goes on: "We do not recall a previous instance of this, and there certainly has not been one since the cold bull market began in 2001-02. ...

"We have not -- until now -- seen a situation in which the central banks are actually paying the bullion banks, hedge funds, gold miners, et al. to borrow the stuff. And please don't forget that, in this context, leasing gold is actually 'shorting' gold. Gold is not 'leased' to be hoarded; it is 'leased' to be sold for something that pays a far higher rate of interest. ... The practice of 'leasing gold -- and silver' by the central banks has been one of their best means of suppressing the prices of these precious metals for a long time."

Interestingly The Privateer's wonderful $US 5x3 Point and figure chart withstood this week's slump. See chart:

http://www.the-priva...rt/gold-pf.html

Goldbug conclusion: Central banks, led surreptitiously by the Fed, are supplying physical gold to the market. And wise heads like the Indians are buying it."

Question is though - what is being bought?

SafeBetter




#12 Layman

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 01:40 PM

DrB ... whilst we're discussing "admin", is there any reason the site's clock has moved back 5 hours? All posts are appearing 5hrs behind for me (and other posters).

Are we off to the East Coast for a holiday? ... or does this just reflect the global nature of the site - each time zone gets to host the site for a month? smile.gif

#13 G0ldfinger

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 02:12 PM

QUOTE (marceau @ Mar 31 2008, 01:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Long term trend line at $915/6 just breached. Could get to $905 in the next few hours now.

Edit: I hadn't been watching oil, it's flirting with $100. Makes me feel strangely bullish for some reason.

If Zapata George is right and oil will go to $160 next week, what will that mean for gold?
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
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#14 narco

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 02:27 PM

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Mar 31 2008, 03:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
If Zapata George is right and oil will go to $160 next week, what will that mean for gold?

I'm not sure if it will be 1 week but should news of fundamental supply shortgages break, oil is going to take off vertically.

$160 oil means gold goes to $1200 minimum.

It's interesting to to see gold bounce off the trend line. Let's see if what happens over night.
"The Fed "sprays" $180 billion around the world, but markets sell off anyway" -- Bloomberg, Sept 08

#15 G0ldfinger

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 02:31 PM

Unreal.


You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#16 narco

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 02:38 PM

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Mar 31 2008, 03:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Unreal.


Very unusual. blink.gif
"The Fed "sprays" $180 billion around the world, but markets sell off anyway" -- Bloomberg, Sept 08

#17 Errol

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 02:39 PM

QUOTE (narco @ Mar 31 2008, 02:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Very unusual. blink.gif


You can say that again.
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#18 G0ldfinger

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 02:47 PM

QUOTE (narco @ Mar 31 2008, 03:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Very unusual. blink.gif

Is it all Bear Stearn's gold flooding the vaults? laugh.gif laugh.gif
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#19 narco

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 02:52 PM

Longer term M3 chart - Well above 1971 levels now and approaching 20%


"The Fed "sprays" $180 billion around the world, but markets sell off anyway" -- Bloomberg, Sept 08

#20 G0ldfinger

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Posted 31 March 2008 - 03:10 PM



Oh dear. EDIT: EURGBP = 1.00 within short?
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.




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