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The Case For Silver


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#1 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 10:27 PM

G0ldfinger/Steve Netwriter - why hold silver also?

Are you thinking that silver may rise more or quicker than gold - apologies if that is an old question.

Safebetter.


Yep, silver is more volatile. So bigger gains, but to avoid suicide, IMO only part of your PM holdings.
Also, the public attention is on gold, and I've read that silver lags gold because the attention starts on gold, and then when that's gone up, people look for a cheaper alternative. And that's when silver really rockets.
I've also read an article which suggests silver is now less owned, and maybe due a comeback.
The potential is HUGE. So IMO worth a punt of say 10% to 20% of your PM portfolio.

I'll hunt out a few memorable articles for you.......

Deep Into The Danger Zone
By: Theodore Butler & Israel Friedman
http://news.silverse.../1203445598.php


Please sit down before reading these numbers.

Gold Breaks New Record - Public Waking Up!
http://www.marketora...rticle3775.html

As Mike Maloney has been shouting from the rooftops: "This is not the time to be in stocks or non cash-flowing real estate. As investors we are in the rare situation where the safest investment (the investment that has been a valued form of wealth for over 5,000 years) is also the investment that history says will offer the greatest potential gains in the upcoming years."

Since this huge shift in the foundation of investing gold has increased 3.36 times and silver 4.24 times. The amazing thing is that history shows we are not even close to being done with this cycle.

His forecast? $6,000 gold and $600 silver by 2016. Nope, that was not a typo (and that is even using his conservative formula). B) :D :D :) :)

Sounds crazy right? But would you have guessed $900 gold was just around the corner when the price was less than $300? This same mentality happens in every bull market. People just can't believe that the investment that the cycle is favoring is going to keep going up until the investors all decide at once that it must be for real and then it becomes the "can't lose investment." This is when the public rushes into the investment that had been going up steadily and drives the price vertical. This happened in tech stocks in the late 1990's and more recently in real estate.

Of course if you look back even further you find history repeating itself yet again. In 1970 gold was $35 an ounce and in 1980 in had risen to $850 an ounce turning every $10,000 into over $230,000. Of course gold then went into its down cycle from 1980 to 2000 but the clock kept turning, as expected, and we are in the upwave precious metal cycle again. These cycles just repeat over and over and are one reason why some people are able to predict the correct investments to be in while others sit in yesterday's investment just hoping they will come back up.

As these precious metal prices hit record after record the general public start to wake up to this sector when they see it on the news night after night. These are the folks who really light a fire under an investment when they try to jump on it in increasing numbers. This period for the precious metals is just starting now.



That silver prediction sounds completely outrageous.
Silver is currently ~$18/oz. $600/oz is 33x more !!!
So $10,000 would become........................................... $330,000 :blink: :blink: :blink: :blink: :blink:


Why the silver price is set to soar
http://www.moneyweek...et-to-soar.html

Demand Building for Gold and Silver as Currency of Legal Tender for Merchant Services
http://www.marketora...rticle3833.html


This might be one of the definitive articles. It certainly covers a lot of the main points.

This article covers the long-term gold/silver ratio.
And the use and supply of silver.
It was written in 2003.

THE GOLD/SILVER RATIO STRATEGY
& THE CASE FOR SILVER
Franklin Sanders
http://www.gold-eagl...ders030703.html

Since 1990 fabrication demand has averaged 156% of yearly mine production. For every ounce of silver the mines produced, industry consumed one and a half ounces of silver.



Keep one thing in mind: the key to the silver price is monetary demand. Other categories of demand alter only slowly over time due to technological or economic changes. Supply-demand imbalances in commodities can persist for a surprisingly long time without moving the price sharply. In the past decade, the price of silver has been practically flat, with a few spikes, because monetary demand has been absent. Strong, sustained silver moves occur when many people decide suddenly they want silver because it is money. Today, when stocks, currencies, bonds, and other paper assets have begun to disappoint investors, investor attitudes are shifting. What begins as a trickle ends as a tidal wave when the panic peaks. When public revulsion at the US dollar begins, the tidal wave will become a tsunami. Silver, far more volatile than gold, will benefit most.



In the 1960 - 1980 precious metals bull market, gold rose from $35 to $850, a 2,429% increase. At the same time silver rose from 90 cents to $50, a 5,556% increase. Silver rose 2.3 times as fast as gold.

What is the obvious reason for silver's greater volatility? Compared to gold silver is a tiny market, so the same amount of money drives silver much higher. That's why you expect to see silver rising faster than gold in a bull market - the ratio ought to be trending down as both metals rise.



That's not a misprint. 90c (yes cents) to $50 (dollars).


Based on year end average prices, the 1792-2002 mean ratio is 31.32. If the ratio merely returned to that mean over the bull market's course, silver would rise about 2.4 times faster than gold. However, based on the extreme ratio swings of the last 125 years, and the ratio's drop in the last precious metals bull market, I believe it is safe to speculate that the ratio will drop much, much lower than the 200 year mean. In fact, my target is 16:1, the bottom of the last bull market.



Never skew your portfolio more than 70% to silver. That is, at current market value you should never have more than 70% of your total investment in silver. Keep the other 30% in gold. Always take delivery of your physical metal. Never leave silver in storage with any dealer.




This chart shows the gold/silver ratio. The mean is 31.32.

Posted Image



This article suggests silver is VERY undervalued compared with gold.
Just check out the per capita amount of silver in the 2nd table !

The Real Gold/Silver Ratio Part II
By: Theodore Butler
From 2006.
http://news.silverse.../1161705933.php

I've copied the table for you:
Posted Image

Posted Image

What this table tells us is that, on a per capita dollar basis, the world’s citizens have never owned more gold or less silver than they do today. The world’s citizens own more than 35 times more in gold, expressed in dollars, than they owned 106 years ago. Yet at the same time, the world’s citizens own less than 40% of dollar-denominated silver than they did 106 years ago. Once again, these figures should shock you, just as they shocked me. And please remember, this is also an apples to apples comparison.
.
.
Some might suggest that the great value disparity between gold and silver points to the realization of the superiority of gold as the one true money. Perhaps. But why is this disparity showing up only against silver? Gold compared to the other precious metals (platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium), the base metals, oil, broad commodity indices, real estate or the stock market, does not suggest a gold overvaluation. As I said, this is severe silver under valuation, not a gold over valuation.



This is a great chart:

Posted Image

This is a 600 year graph of silver prices and silver/gold ratio from 1344 to 1998 as shown in 1998 dollars.

from: http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html


The Real Deal
By: Theodore Butler
26 February, 2008
http://news.silverse.../1204056208.php

Warnings about not buying REAL ALLOCATED silver. Silver you know exists, and is owned by you.

While I have intentionally tried to deliver this message as a warning, so that innocent silver investors can avoid a nasty potential surprise, there is an almost unspoken upside if enough investors follow my advice. Because I am convinced there are more than a billion ounces of silver tied up in unbacked silver certificates and storage schemes, if only a small percentage of those investors, say 5% or 10%, switch to storage programs holding real silver with serial numbers, the impact on the price of silver could be profound. All other things being equal, such an amount of switching could cause a doubling in the price of silver, in my opinion.


Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

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#2 wren

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 11:13 PM

Thanks for putting together all these sources, Steve.

Nice to review all the old stuff. I remember when I first started seriously studying bullion back in '02 and learning about the history of monetary systems.

It must have taken me many months before I began to believe there would be a bull. Gold was under $320 and silver under $5! The projected prices seemed almost incredible, but it's the fundamentals that count because paper money is such an unreliable measure of value.

I used to have lots of historical info about e.g. how much a Roman soldier or medieval soldier would be payed per day (in silver). Unfortunately, I lost most of it when a hard drive crashed. It's probably still out there on the internet but I don't have time to look at present.
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Video at YouTube: Buying groceries with silver in California.
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#3 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 11:51 PM

I so wish I'd been looking at this stuff for longer.
I started just watching a few currency pairs, and that's widened more and more.
Still, most people I talk to think I'm nuts, so I know I'm in early enough :blink:

Some of the projections do look utterly crazy.
But, they are not unpresidented, and as you say, it's all about fundamentals. You can't beat financial stupidity to give you a great opportunity if you can spot it.

Luckily I'm quite good at backups. Otherwise I'd lose my livelyhood on this computer :blink:
Guess what my system is ? Yes, spread it around and spread the risk :blink:
Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

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#4 wren

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Posted 08 March 2008 - 12:02 AM

I might have a look around to find good articles about the price elasticity of silver, as was just discussed in the gold thread. Maybe this thread could become an equivalent chat thread about all things silver, and essential articles for newbies near the beginning would be good.
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#5 Quark

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Posted 08 March 2008 - 01:10 AM

I might have a look around to find good articles about the price elasticity of silver, as was just discussed in the gold thread. Maybe this thread could become an equivalent chat thread about all things silver, and essential articles for newbies near the beginning would be good.



sorry could not resist :blink:


http://www.telegraph...npyjamas130.xml

Marks and Spencer is to launch pyjamas designed to protect hospital patients from the MRSA superbug.

The retailer says the "Sleep Safe" nightwear comes in response to customers' concerns, after tests showed that pyjamas containing silver thread can reduce the spread of hospital infections.

Men's pyjamas containing the thread go on sale in two weeks, priced at £45.


Actualy interesting that the long know antibacterial/viral qualities of silver are starting to get noticed by the mainstream.

#6 Layman

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Posted 08 March 2008 - 01:39 PM

sorry could not resist :blink:

http://www.telegraph...npyjamas130.xml

Actualy interesting that the long know antibacterial/viral qualities of silver are starting to get noticed by the mainstream.


Yep, I was aware of silver's deployment in dressings, fridges, mattresses, etc... But that article highlights just how important it could be in the treatment of antibiotic-resistant infections.

The fact that MRSA is carried by 1/3 of the population and was only really discovered in 1961 is quite eye-opening.
I had a look through: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mrsa - which is quite a useful resource but so far doesn't mention the use of silver in the treatment of MRSA.

Googling around, there are a few good hits for "MRSA silver" - e.g. http://www.countrydo.....nd silver.htm ... more research required (by me) I'm sure - but it certainly appears as though silver's unique(?) properties are only just beginning to be exploited in the medical/pharma industries.

#7 tinecu

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Posted 08 March 2008 - 03:47 PM

Yep, I was aware of silver's deployment in dressings, fridges, mattresses, etc... But that article highlights just how important it could be in the treatment of antibiotic-resistant infections.

The fact that MRSA is carried by 1/3 of the population and was only really discovered in 1961 is quite eye-opening.
I had a look through: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mrsa - which is quite a useful resource but so far doesn't mention the use of silver in the treatment of MRSA.

Googling around, there are a few good hits for "MRSA silver" - e.g. http://www.countrydo.....nd silver.htm ... more research required (by me) I'm sure - but it certainly appears as though silver's unique(?) properties are only just beginning to be exploited in the medical/pharma industries.


I recall a company is now incorporating fine silver threads into hospital fabrics (bed sheets etc). Perhaps ASAHI glass co?
Not sure.

#8 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 08 March 2008 - 07:28 PM

An interesting article on the silver short position.


Up Against The Wall
By: Theodore Butler
4 March, 2008

There is a world of difference between liquidating a leveraged long position in a panic and doing the same with a short position. The simple difference is this; a long position can’t go below zero, and at some price above zero, an opportunistic buyer will purchase the position. A short position being liquidated under panic conditions contains no such guarantee. Finding an entity willing to assume a massive short position if the shorts start to panic, is a world apart from dumping a long position in a hurry.

There is no telling to how high a price a short liquidation (buying back) of a position might drive a price. For a commodity held short where no adequate supply exists to deliver against (think Minneapolis wheat and COMEX silver), the sky is truly the limit. Add in the fact that the COMEX silver short position is held in extremely concentrated hands (4 or less), and you have the ingredients for an historical short panic. This is precisely why the regulators have really dropped the ball in allowing this condition to persist and grow worse, in spite of my constant warnings.

I have written previously about the non-economic and illogical aspect to anyone shorting silver in great quantities at the super-depressed prices of the recent past. If you didn’t want to take advantage of the incredible opportunity that silver offered, fine. But why in the world would anyone want to short it big? At least we finally have the answer to that question. Shorting big was dumb. Or pure manipulation.

Is this the time for an epic short panic in silver? Perhaps, especially as more people recognize the problem. The combination of severe recent financial stress on the shorts, the fundamentals and index fund buying, combined with the impossibility of buying back the out-sized short position easily makes it a difficult situation for the shorts. A wounded animal is always dangerous, depending on how serious the wounds. They are up against a wall and, if not resolved soon, it is likely to fall on them.


Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

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#9 wren

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Posted 09 March 2008 - 10:59 PM

This is from a 2003 article. The article is a good overview with some nice graphs, even though not up to date.
http://www.gold-eagl...ders030703.html

FUNDAMENTALS

Throughout history silver has served mankind as the primary monetary metal. However, unlike fellow monetary metal gold, most silver use is non-monetary. This industrial demand for silver is quirky. In most applications only a very little silver is needed, so silver contributes only a tiny fraction to end-product cost. For example, the amount of silver on printed circuit boards contributes only pennies to a computer's cost. Given this quirky demand, unless silver's price skyrockets, higher prices don't discourage use.

There's another quirk that keeps silver demand strong in the face of rising prices: its unique properties. In most applications, there is no good substitute for silver because nothing else acts quite like silver. For instance, it is the most electrically conductive metal, so the only near substitute in printed circuit boards is - gold, which is even more expensive. In some applications, like photography, there is no substitute at all, because nothing else reacts to light like silver salts. To replace silver in photography requires a completely new technology.1

So silver demand doesn't drop much when prices rise (demand is price inelastic). Moreover, the silver bull that peaked in 1980 scared silver users so badly that over the next two decades they drastically reduced the amount of silver used . They figured out how to get more work out of less silver, but most of those one-time reductions can't be quickly or easily repeated. Usage has been squeezed down about as low as it can go in the short run.

Nor does silver production rise step for step with price. Obviously developing a new mine or re-opening a mothballed one takes quite some time, from months to years. Worse yet for silver supply, 75% of silver comes as a by-product of copper, lead, zinc, or gold mining. All these base metals stand in oversupply at low prices. Even if silver soars, no miner in his right mind will turn out tons of unprofitable copper, lead, or zinc just to profit from a little by-product silver.2 Open primary silver mines are very rare, and real silver companies, miners who draw a significant part of total revenue from silver, are even rarer.


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Video at guardian.co.uk: Gold for Food in Zimbabwe.
Video at YouTube: Buying groceries with silver in California.
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#10 wren

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Posted 09 March 2008 - 11:08 PM

This April 2007 moneyweek article gives a simliar overview of silver fundamentals (no graphs).
http://www.moneyweek...et-to-soar.html

The supply of silver is inelastic. Silver production will not ramp up significantly if the silver price goes up. Supply didn't increase in the 1970’s when silver rose 35 fold in price – from $1.40/oz in 1971 to a high of nearly $50/oz in 1980. Importantly, silver is a byproduct metal and some 80% of mined silver is a byproduct of base metals. Higher prices for silver will not cause copper, nickel, zinc, lead or other base metal miners to increase their production. In the event of a global deflationary slowdown demand for base metals would likely fall thus further decreasing the supply of silver.

There are only a handful of pure silver mines remaining. This inflexible supply means that we cannot expect significant mine supply to depress the price after silver rises in price. It is extremely rare to find a good, service, investment or commodity that is price inelastic in both supply and demand. This is another powerfully bullish aspect unique to silver.


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Video at guardian.co.uk: Gold for Food in Zimbabwe.
Video at YouTube: Buying groceries with silver in California.
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#11 wren

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Posted 12 March 2008 - 07:44 PM

If anybody happens to be looking for the new gold thread with Goldfinger and crew it's here on this site:
http://www.greenener...?showtopic=2874

gold thread wren
wren gold thread
gold thread wren
wren gold thread
gold thread wren
wren gold thread
gold thread wren
wren gold thread
gold thread wren
wren gold thread

:unsure:
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#12 Pixel8r

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Posted 12 March 2008 - 11:57 PM

There's another quirk that keeps silver demand strong in the face of rising prices: its unique properties. In most applications, there is no good substitute for silver because nothing else acts quite like silver. For instance, it is the most electrically conductive metal, so the only near substitute in printed circuit boards is - gold, which is even more expensive. In some applications, like photography, there is no substitute at all, because nothing else reacts to light like silver salts. To replace silver in photography requires a completely new technology


I am not so sure of this argument. I am a professional photographer of 20 years and I have noticed a big drop off on silver use. I used to use 100+ rolls of 120mm a month and 50 10"x8" silver print/pm. These days I shoot on a multi-shot digital back and print via my inkjet technology. So my silver us has gone to zero over the last 8 years. I have also noticed this a lot in the industry as a whole.

So there has been a completely new technology, it's called digital photography via CCD and CMOS chips and inkjet technology for printing.

#13 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 13 March 2008 - 12:20 AM

If anybody happens to be looking for the new gold thread with Goldfinger and crew it's here on this site:
http://www.greenener...?showtopic=2874

gold thread wren
wren gold thread
gold thread wren
wren gold thread
gold thread wren
wren gold thread
gold thread wren
wren gold thread
gold thread wren
wren gold thread

:)


If you are from HPC, and looking for goldfinger talking about gold, the famous goldfinger gold thread, maybe you are thinking "where is goldfinger", then this is your answer :)
Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

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#14 wren

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Posted 13 March 2008 - 01:35 AM

I am not so sure of this argument. I am a professional photographer of 20 years and I have noticed a big drop off on silver use. I used to use 100+ rolls of 120mm a month and 50 10"x8" silver print/pm. These days I shoot on a multi-shot digital back and print via my inkjet technology. So my silver us has gone to zero over the last 8 years. I have also noticed this a lot in the industry as a whole.

So there has been a completely new technology, it's called digital photography via CCD and CMOS chips and inkjet technology for printing.

Yes I noticed that that comment in the article was a bit disingenuous. Does anybody have up-to-date data for volumes in industrial applications? Reduced demand for photography was predictable several years ago and I remember some silverbugs talking about that factor, but how it's playing out now I don't know. I might have a look around for data if nobody else posts it.
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#15 dopamine

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Posted 13 March 2008 - 05:33 PM

Another volatile day for ag, and it's not over yet. It's struggling to break $21 again - probably responding to gold profit takers at around the $1000 mark. Anyone with any ideas when the fabled sudden collapse of the shorts is going to happen (with resultant 1 day $10+ spike)? Or is it all hype?

#16 wren

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Posted 13 March 2008 - 05:34 PM

gold thread wren

Page 1, position 2 on Google. :D
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#17 Layman

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Posted 21 March 2008 - 10:29 AM

QUOTE (dopamine @ Mar 13 2008, 05:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Another volatile day for ag, and it's not over yet. It's struggling to break $21 again - probably responding to gold profit takers at around the $1000 mark. Anyone with any ideas when the fabled sudden collapse of the shorts is going to happen (with resultant 1 day $10+ spike)? Or is it all hype?

Looks like it was all hype! ohmy.gif

<cries into beer>

#18 FLASH

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Posted 21 March 2008 - 03:26 PM

QUOTE (Bobsta @ Mar 21 2008, 10:29 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Looks like it was all hype! ohmy.gif

<cries into beer>


Silver rose too far over the last few months so I'm glad it corrected even though I hold a substancial holding. Now that we are back to $17 hopefully it will consolodate arounds these sort of levels so the next leg up will be more sustainable. If the price falls further it will create an even better buying opportunity.

#19 Cuthbert Calculus

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Posted 21 March 2008 - 04:30 PM

No chance, imo I'm afraid, silver doesn't trade like that.

Back to 200 dma and below before the next run up in 2009

#20 skinny

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Posted 22 March 2008 - 03:04 PM

QUOTE (Frizzers @ Mar 21 2008, 04:30 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
No chance, imo I'm afraid, silver doesn't trade like that.

Back to 200 dma and below before the next run up in 2009


Do you still hate youself for selling ?

And what sort of price would tempt u back in Frizzers - $15 ?




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