frizzers Posted August 24, 2008 Report Share Posted August 24, 2008 Here’s some more of my analysis of oil vs gold for the last eight years. This post is topical, as we go from what I see as the “gold winter season” (Mar-Aug) to a “gold summer season” (Sep-Feb) during the next week. Look how the gold-to-oil ratio varies between both seasons – both graphs normalized to the ratio on the first day of the “season” There is a clear (but gradual) mean downward trend from Mar-Aug and a clear mean upwards trend from Sept-Feb (mostly before Xmas). This pattern holds for most years, although there are exceptions. I’m wondering if we are nearing a bottom in the gold-to-oil ratio, which would suggest better prospects for gold in the next few months. Good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted August 24, 2008 Report Share Posted August 24, 2008 There is gold and there is fool's gold. Gold has run out. Fool's gold is more abundant than ever. Buy some at http://www.exchangetradedgold.com MUHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHA http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121928079980258833.html The Eagle Has Been Grounded As gold prices tumbled from their highest level ever, investors and collectors loaded up on one-ounce "American eagle" gold-bullion coins. The buying spree came to an abrupt halt this week after the U.S. Mint stopped selling the coins for the first time since production began 20 years ago. "Due to the unprecedented demand...our inventories have been depleted," the Mint -- part of the U.S. Treasury Department -- told its dealers Friday. "We are therefore temporarily suspending all sales of these coins." Know what you are suggesting. But why should dealers provide the excuses? Rand LeShay, senior vice president of Los Angeles-based A-Mark Precious Metals, an authorized purchaser for the U.S. Mint, said that there was a big spike in demand for gold and silver coins and ingots after a recent price tumble http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews...lBrandChannel=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 24, 2008 Report Share Posted August 24, 2008 We keep getting this inflation/deflation question. This article seems to answer it quite well in a nice short way Should you hold gold or cash in times of deflation? http://cij.inspiriting.com/?p=275 So, a good question to ask is this: in times of deflation, wouldn’t it be better to hold cash instead of gold? The short answer is this: In theory, yes. In reality, no. If you want to know the long answer, read on. OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 24, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2008 Quite balanced article from the Independent on Sunday, although I disagree with the last paragraph, which forgets to mention how bleak the economy is at the moment. Julian Knight: Tread cautiously if travelling in the realms of gold http://www.independent.co.uk/money/invest-...old-906790.html Back then, prices rose sharply as the world economy reeled from higher oil costs – sounds familiar? – but once the dust settled and speculators saw opportunities elsewhere, the price of gold went on a 20-year slump. Twenty years – now that's a long time for any investor to keep the faith. To liken the present situation with 1974 or 1980 is ridiculous. Where are the car-free Sundays? Where are the 15%-20% inflation figures? We have seen nothing yet. People simply have no idea anymore how bad it can get. It's a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LauraB Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 We keep getting this inflation/deflation question. This article seems to answer it quite well in a nice short way Should you hold gold or cash in times of deflation? http://cij.inspiriting.com/?p=275 OK Almost OK Steve. I'm grateful for an article I can get my head around, thank you. It answers every question, - except one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Can't find the original post about Paul Van Eeden saying gold was overvalued, but here is a recent interview http://watch.bnn.ca/trading-day/august-200...2008/#clip84424 Bubb - u dismissed his reasoning - wonder if u could flesh that out a bit He certainly looks quite smart just now - went neutral at 1000, nibbling sub 800, as beleives fair value = 760 It depends on the starting point, I suppose. Does he really believe US inflation numbers? If so, he;s being foolish Walden. Where you put a 4, i might put an A, with a B and C to come* *Note: Mine is only one possible pathway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Where you put a 4, i might put an A, with a B and C to come* interesting, but the for the upper channel line, where is the second point you used to draw it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 The price of gold sovereigns is defiantly going up on ebay regardless of the spot price. I'm having trouble winning any auctions and coins are regularly going for more than when the spot price was above $975. Also there is not much gold or bullion silver for sale at the moment on ebay. Anyone else got an opinion on this? I mean, why would anyone pay more on ebay than you can buy from ATS? I see golds done sod all today in the spot price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 I think if you know you are going to go bankcrupt, you buy all the gold you can... Going to ATS or another retailer may not work because the transactions over a certain amount are reported. Cheques or cash to Mr Smith will be hard to analyse. It is easier to bounce back with a stash of gold - is that how billionaire Donald Trump bounced back after 2 bankcrupcies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 I just sent this to goldmoney: Dear Mr Turk GATA, with whom you are closely associated, have published the view that the US Mint's suspension of silver and now gold eagles is "overwhelming evidence that the futures contract price of gold on the commodities exchanges is substantially below the physical market price". Please could you lay out for me your plan for ensuring that the mechanism for selling physical gold and physical silver via Goldmoney reflects prices for the physical metals rather than 'paper' markets as we see further divergence between the two. I would like to post your response on the Global Edge Investors (globaledgeinvestors.com) website with which you may be familiar, for the benefit of members there. ref: http://www.gata.org/node/6489 Kind regards I have a response from James Turk, with my repsonse below that. Very impressed with the personal attention given to my query. Hello xxxxx Sorry for the slow response, but I have been travelling. GoldMoney only offers to its customers gold and silver in the form of LBMA bars. Consequently, GoldMoney always bases its prices on the spot market for LBMA bars. This spot market is comprised of several major bullion banks, and they quote throughout the day from Monday-to-Friday from their various branch offices in different time zones throughout the world. When a transaction is completed, the seller has the obligation to deliver to the buyer -- upon payment by the buyer -- physical bullion in the form of LBMA bars. To my knowledge there has never been a default by any trading member selling LBMA bars in the spot market. Transactions in GoldMoney are never priced off the futures market or any paper-based trading market. Further, we have no intention to ever price them off the paper market. We will only transact in a market where we will receive LBMA bars, not paper promises. There is also another aspect to your question. It is, what is the relationship between the market for LBMA bars (which is a market made by LBMA trading members, http://www.lbma.org.uk/assocn/mktmembs) and the market for coins and small bars (which is a market made by thousands of coin dealers, jewellery shops and bullion retailers globally)? Right now, the market for coins and small bars is largely frozen as GATA, me (http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php) and others have written. However, the LBMA market continues to function normally as near as I can tell (not being a trading member myself). LBMA bars (both gold and silver) can still be had in reasonable quantities. Barring any government intervention and/or government dictates, I would expect the LBMA market to continue operating, regardless what happens in the paper market for gold. Right now the demand for physical metal in the form of LBMA bars has been very strong. I can only wonder where all the bars are coming from to meet the soaring demand at the current low price. For example, Resource Investor notes http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=45611 "In fact, just since August 15, SLV has added a huge 308.839 tonnes to hold 6,474.04 tonnes of average 1,000 ounce silver bars." There are only about 25,000 tonnes of silver mined in one year. Yet over the past 10 days, SLV reports that it has added 308.9 tonnes, which is an annual rate of 11,120 tonnes, or 44% of this year's newly mined silver. And that's just SLV, not to mention all the other LBMA bars acquired by other sources during this same 10-day period. Lastly, paper is used by the gold cartel acting under the direction of central banks to force prices lower. When prices in the paper market drop, prices in the physical market follow paper prices lower until prices become too cheap. We've reached that point with coins and small bars. We may also some day reach that point in the LBMA market, which means that gold would go into backwardation, i.e., the price in the spot market is above a future price of gold. I trust this answers your question, but please let me know if I can be of further help. Regards James Thank you James for your comprehensive reply and taking the time personally to attend to my query. I take much confidence from your clear explanation and guess I hadn't really thought this through fully. My immediate reaction to recent price action in the futures markets vs coins/small bars was "here's the divergence yet Goldmoney is tracking paper prices", which had me a little concerned. Of course, a continued supply of the LBMA bars explains why there actually is no such gaping divergence visible between goldmoney spot rates and futures prices, yet. As I mentioned in my initial query I will post your response on GEI as I think it will be of great interest to members there. Kind regards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1waving Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 interesting, but the for the upper channel line, where is the second point you used to draw it? Looks like it has been drawn as a parallel from the bottom support line, with the top of wave 2 as the one contact point. ( second contact point not needed. ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1waving Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Excellent interview with Rob McEwen. 'Legendary mining executive Rob McEwen has been associated with the resource industry for 29 years. Currently Chairman and CEO of U.S. Gold Corporation (UXG) and Lexam Explorations, he was the founder and former Chairman and CEO of Goldcorp Inc. (GG).' 'RM: Yes, I believe that by the end of 2010, we’ll be seeing $2,000 gold, and before the gold cycle is out, it will go up and touch $5,000, and that will be the end of the mania phase.' http://seekingalpha.com/article/92344-inte...t-shining-again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 I have a response from James Turk, with my repsonse below that. Very impressed with the personal attention given to my query. Excellent question, and an excellent reply, and very interesting. Thanks for posting that Gatesy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 . Good point. And thanks to Gatesy for posting the email response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 Good point. Damn, I was going to say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 Got Gold or Silver ? You will love this. A Rough Projection of Gold and Silver Prices Reinhard Seiser August 24th, 2008 http://libertyvalley.com/rough_projection_...d_silver_prices Very nice article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevecook172001 Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 erm... sorry, just being a provocative little tinker..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 erm... sorry, just being a provocative little tinker..... Don't be a twat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sylvester Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 erm... sorry, just being a provocative little tinker..... Oh very funny. Now put the price back up again and stopped messing around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevecook172001 Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 Oh very funny. Now put the price back up again and stopped messing around... will do.... Take another look at 2:30pm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 Forget these little perturbations. Check out this article ! Credit crisis II A world financial Armageddon? by Christopher Laird, PrudentSquirrel.com http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2008/0825.html Bankrupt en masse In effect, this means the Western banks, etc are bankrupt en masse. The only thing propping up the entire Western financial system, and its respective stock markets has been massive ‘temporary’ lending, on an ongoing basis, by the Fed and ECB. Both central banks are beginning to balk at this situation. Even as they are starting to have second thoughts, the Western financial institutions continue to borrow more money than ever on a weekly basis. Why aren’t things loosening up? .... Parabolic peak One could say all that is happening is that all financial institutions in the world don’t really trust each other, and won’t lend to each other. And that an astounding $50 to $100 billion of weekly infusions from the Fed and the ECB is not fixing the situation, and that we are witnessing the final parabolic peak of the world credit bubble that has built up for the 63 years after WW2 ended. That, and the end of the USD and Yen driven credit/asset/finance bubble which ensued from the early 1970’s. ------------------ I don't care what the gold/silver price is. I feel safer than having too much of this fiat stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 A further comment from James Turk regarding paper v physical: Also, it is important to remember that the manipulations in the paper market are making gold and silver very cheap. So as I often say, by making the prices of paper gold and paper silver very cheap, central banks are doing a favour for everyone who understands the essential nature and true value of physical gold and physical silver. Central banks are enabling us to exchange overvalued fiat currency for undervalued physical metal. The demand for physical metal now is not unlike what happened in 1967 to early 1968 when the US dishoarded 8,000 tonnes from Ft. Knox at $35 per ounce. Back then gold was being exchanged for dollars at the fixed rate of 35 dollars for one ounce. Today gold is being exchanged at a fluctuating rate, that changes from minute to minute. But the point is that gold is as cheap today as it was back in 1968 and central banks have to keep supplying physical metal to keep the paper price this low. Or they will throw in the towel like they did in March 1968 with the two-tiered gold price -- they stopped dishoarding from Ft Knox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 When you think about the POG in the seventies being $400-$500-$600 the POG seems relatively cheap at $800 today... especially when you adjust those seventies dollars for inflation. I am guessing that $500 dollars in the seventies would have felt like up towards a $1000 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 Sorry I answered my own questions after reading back my post. I will look for a relevant NASA picture next time this happens to cover my tracks! Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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