GEI LINKS for a quick update on Markets, etc., Some of our favorite links - Please suggest more Options

[DrBubb]

Some Links I like, for a quick update (apart from GEI!) : Ad : Old GEIbb site : Gei-mail : CC's-news

Gold Prices........ : Goldstock : Kitco Pool prices : UsaGold : JimSinclair : BaseMetals
Advfn threads.... : Really Useful GOLD : CDNX : CU stocks : OIL : JAP : HK : U stocks : ECHO :
Blogs, sites, etc. : On Jim Rogers : Mish Shedlock : Peter Schiff : Roubini : DonCoxe : NewCombat
Theme songs.... : I Get knocked Down : Goldfinger : Diamonds are Forever : Turn Turn Turn : SilkRd
Financial Sense. : Home Page : FS Podcasts : FSU Contributors : MH
Other Podcasts. : CW Radio : T.Obrien: TFNN LarryP : Goldseek : HoweSt : KEreport : Disc.Investor
GEI Blogs.......... : DrBubb's Blog (inactive)

Chart updates: Mises-charts
10 day charts : SPY : QQQ : GLD : GDX : CDNX
One Year ..... : Dollar chart : AIM Index
Other charts. : FXFX : Property stocks
Stockcharts.. : Nvest-setup : XX-to-YY : AA-to-BB
FUTURES, FX. : FutureSource : CST-Charts : Pre-Market look : COT Reports

..

Property websites : HPC : GHPC : S-Pig : US Headlines : A.K. archive : Global Prop. Charts
HK Property Links : HK's Sq.Ft. : CC.org : AsiaX : MTR : HKinsiders : YouTube

Ratio: CDNX-to-SPX (31.July.09) ... update : http://tinyurl.com/2omj5b : old version

[DrBubb]

POSSIBLE DIFFERENCES between UK and HK property markets

+ I start from the notion that property is a cyclical sector, and I want to "catch the sweet spot", and hope to be out before the peak. That doesnt mean that I won't get stuck in after the top (as TTRTR seems to), but at least I will be looking for signs of a peak. ... XXX hasnt shown any cyclical awareness. He is a self-confessed "long term bull on property"- in denial of cycles.

+ The fundamentals underlying this boom are different than they were in the UK. Rents are rising fast in HK (up 10-15% per annum or more), while in the UK, rents seemed to be stagnant for years. Also interest rates are falling fast, driven lower by US cuts. At the peak in London, rates had been rising for many months. The Builders are a good bellwether here also. Their sharp moves up attracted me in. They ae now off their highs, but my reading of the charts is that their is yet another surge ahead for HK property developers. If they break down instead, I should redouble my alertness.

+ I regard XXX as a speculator who stumbled into property investing, following a societal bandwagon, driven by wildly aggressive lending by banks (like NRK.) He got carried away, and started believing EA hype. Of course, there are many investors here too, but most investors got burned by the 70% drop from 1997 to 2003, and that is within their recent memory. The result is more caution, especially amongst the banks, who ae reluctant to lend more than 70%. All of my loans were in the region of 65% - 70%, and with price appreciation my portfolio is now sitting at near 50% Loan to Value, with no MEW-ing, at least not yet.

+ I welcome bear arguments, especially those that are backed up by facts, and figures. I dont want to miss the turn, so bear arguments will help me stay alert, and not miss something. The possible scenario you point to: a surge up, followed by a sharp fall, is possible, and could be triggered by: a re-pegging of the HK dollar, or a turnaround in rates from a falling trend to a rising trend. Do people here see other ways that could happen?

Compare charts:
............. UK Property ........................................................... : ......... UK Builder: Taylor Wimpey (TW.L)
..

............. HK Property ........................................................... : ......... HK Developer: Henderson (HK:12)
..

Compare and contrast this comment from Midland Realty, with what you might get from UK estate agents:

"End-user demand on supply shortage and improved affordability
Pessimists have raised worries of a bubble burst with the local property market despite the presence of negative interest rates and other favourable factors. However, I would like to emphasise that the Hong Kong market has strong and sound fundamentals. There are three major supporting factors:

1. Hong Kong is a high savings society. The total personal savings with local banks are estimated at HK$6,000 billion.
2. The indebtedness of local families is low. The overall mortgage-to-income ratio has declined steadily to about 30%.
3. Land Registry records showed a low volume of confirmor-related transactions in 2007, indicating that just 1.6% of home purchases involved short-term speculators during the year.

An economic cycle has to go through a number of financial crises, big and small. During a market slump, average investors are often polarised into two major categories – the extreme pessimists prefer to hold cash on hand and on the defensive; the ultra-aggressive ones on the opposite camp are prepared to fight back hard to regain their lost ground. Hong Kong’s property market is characterised by a supply shortage, strong demand from end-users, low level of indebtedness and high savings rate. Buying into Hong Kong property assets appears to be a good bet."

/source: http://www.midland.com.hk/eng/market_views/080125.shtml

Monthly - updated

Weekly Transactions - updated

Weekly Price Indices:
Midland... : http://www.midland.com.hk/eng/m_index/main.shtml : OLY1
CC Trans. : http://proptx.midland.com.hk/propTx/index....e=0&lang=en
Centaline : http://www.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

Week==== : 35tr : prv : CCLI. : MMLI. : 18wkMA .. before /18
01/06/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 64.98
01/13/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 67.93
01/20/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 68.05
01/27/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 69.13
02/03/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 71.08
02/10/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 70.33
02/17/2008 : 137 : xxx : 73.81 : 71.08 : 63.41 ..
02/24/2008 : 153 : xxx : 73.28 : 70.33 : 64.15
03/02/2008 : 159 : xxx : 73.98 : 71.07 : 64.92
03/09/2008 : 186 : xxx : 73.5E : 70.5E : 65.61
03/16/2008 : 169 : 218 : 73.01 : 69.97 : 66.22
03/23/2008 : 121 : xxx : 72.79 : 69.72 : 66.78
03/30/2008 : 134 : 203 : 72.89 : 70.06 : 67.29
04/06/2008 : 146 : 193 : 73.75 : 70.91 : 67.82
04/13/2008 : 124 : xxx : 71.93 : 69.02 : 68.17 .. 1,227.11
04/20/2008 : 160e: xxx : 72.57 : 69.77 : 68.51 .. 1,233.11
04/27/2008 : 171 : xxx : 71.49 : 68.58 : 68.78 .. 1,238.04
05/04/2008 : 173 : 253 : 71.44 : 68.61 : 69.02 .. 1,242.33 / C.C.
05/11/2008 : 178 : 232 : 71.51 : 68.59 : 69.22 .. 1245.94 / $3,115
05/18/2008 : 150 : xxx : 71.86 : 69.11 : 69.40 .. 1249.20 / $3,085
05/25/2008 : 185 : 209 : 72.67 : 69.87 : 69.57 .. 1252.30 / $3,115
06/01/2008 : 170 : xxx : 72.16 : 69.26 : 69.65 .. 1253.63 / $3,127
06/07/2008 : 183 : 203 : 73.23 : 70.26 : 69.77 .. 1255.84 / $3,295 (! High in CC ?)
06/14/2008 : 171 : 211 : 71.30 : 69.61 : 69.80 .. 1256.32 / $3,154
06/21/2008 : 150e: xxx : 72.62 : 69.39 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,030 (reflecting: 6/16 - 6/22)
06/28/2008 : 130e: xxx : 73.38 : 70.27 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,111
07/05/2008 : 116 : xxx : 72.77 : 69.70 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,240
07/12/2008 : 109 : 262 : 72.38 : 69.41 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,192
07/19/2008 : 104 : 268 : 71.84 : 68.78 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,025
07/26/2008 : 115 : 333 : 71.55 : 68.47 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,324
08/02/2008 : 124 : 268 : 70.81 : 67.59 : 69.xx .. ==== / $3,194 (testing lows again!)
08/09/2008 : 112 : 224 : 70.46 : 67.24 : 69.09 .. 65.05 / $2,870
08/16/2008 : 107 : xxx : 70.49 : 67.31 : 68.99 .. 65.27 / $3,140
08/23/2008 : 104 : 157 : 70.13 : 66.92 : 68.83 .. 65.48 / $3,265
08/30/2008 : 123 : 212 : 69.94 : 66.86 : 68.74 .. 65.70 / $3,097
09/06/2008 : 121 : xxx : 68.93 : 65.93 : 68.59 .. 65.89 / $2,974 (testing again...)
09/15/2008 : 098 : xxx : 68.40 : 65.44 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,070e
09/22/2008 : 083 : xxx : 68.26 : 65.26 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,192
09/29/2008 : 080 : 329 : 67.52 : 64.46 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,160
10/06/2008 : 084 : 391 : 67.44 : 64.61 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,097 : Black Oct. week
10/13/2008 : 104 : xxx : 66.27 : 63.79 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,159
10/20/2008 : 090 : 422 : 64.64 : 62.01 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,925
10/27/2008 : 113 : xxx : 63.40 : 60.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,950e
11/03/2008 : 132 : xxx : 61.61 : 59.09 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,984
11/10/2008 : 157 : xxx : 59.93 : 57.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,642
11/17/2008 : 129 : 465 : 57.43 : 55.41 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,609
11/24/2008 : 102 : 337 : 57.00 : 55.03 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,496
12/01/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.92 : 54.99 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,500e
12/08/2008 : xxx : xxx : 57.15 : 55.19 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,512
12/15/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.71 : 54.77 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,541 (( LOW ))
12/22/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.93 : 54.99 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,670e
12/29/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.78 : 54.89 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,581
(Cal. 2009)
01/05/2009 : 191 : xxx : 57.52 : 55.75 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,649
01/12/2009 : 187 : 396 : 57.51 : 55.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,698
01/19/2009 : 187 : 396 : 57.99 : 56.42 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612
01/26/2009 : ??? : 396 : 58.38 : 56.87 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,626
02/03/2009 : 056 : ??? : 58.53 : 57.02 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612
02/10/2009 : 124 : 072 : 58.35 : 56.75 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612
02/17/2009 : 152 : 137 : 58.70 : 57.28 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,656
02/24/2009 : 161 : 153 : 58.62 : 57.02 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,545
03/03/2009 : 175 : 159 : 59.45 : 57.78 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,732
03/10/2009 : 157 : 186 : 59.47 : 57.87 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,660e
03/17/2009 : 184 : 169 : 59.74 : 58.25 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,742
03/24/2009 : 240 : 121 : 59.43 : 57.90 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,540
03/31/2009 : 318 : 134 : 60.20 : 58.71 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,595
==== : Rise from LOW : 6.15%: 7.30% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC

04/07/2009 : 365 : 146 : 60.10 : 58.48 : xx.xx ... $2,690 / $2,692
04/14/2009 : 327 : 124 : 60.66 : 59.20 : xx.xx ... $2,723 / $2,722
04/21/2009 : 291 : 129 : 61.50 : 60.06 : xx.xx ... $2,763 / $2,695
04/28/2009 : 258 : 171 : 62.83 : 61.29 : xx.xx ... $2,819 / $2,683
05/05/2009 : 157 : 173 : 63.08 : 61.43 : xx.xx ... $2,826 / $2,781
05/12/2009 : 239 : 178 : 64.34 : 62.48 : xx.xx ... $2,874 / $2,634
05/17/2009 : 270 : 150 : 64.30 : 62.56 : xx.xx ... $2,878 / $2,787
05/24/2009 : 242 : 185 : 64.35 : 62.72 : xx.xx ... $2,885 / $2,804
05/31/2009 : 316 : 170 : 65.49 : 63.62 : xx.xx ... $2,926 / $2,944
06/07/2009 : 320 : 183 : 65.00 : 63.18 : xx.xx ... $2,906 / $2,881
06/14/2009 : xxx : xxx : 65.82 : 64.07 : xx.xx ... $2,947 / $2,874
06/21/2009 : xxx : xxx : 67.11 : 65.49 : xx.xx ... $3,013 / $2,967
06/28/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.42 : 66.77 : xx.xx ... $3,071 / $2,955
==== : Rise from LOW : 20.6%: 21.9% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC

07/05/2009 : xxx : xxx : 67.59 : 65.59 : xx.xx ... $3,071 / $2,906
07/12/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.46 : 66.52 : xx.xx ... $3,060 / $2,948
07/19/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.62 : 66.73 : xx.xx ... $3,070 / $2,996
07/26/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.71 : 66.89 : xx.xx ... $3,077 / $3,043
08/02/2009 : xxx : xxx : 69.44 : 67.10 : xx.xx ... $3,087 / $3,140
08/09/2009 : xxx : xxx : 69.51 : 67.33 : xx.xx ... $3,097 / $3,088E?
08/16/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.12 : 67.62 : xx.xx ... $3,111 / $3,206 +7.00% in a month!
08/23/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.79 : 68.50 : xx.xx ... $3,151 / $3,084
08/30/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.72 : 68.31 : xx.xx ... $3,142 / $3,311
09/06/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.64 : 70.38 : xx.xx ... $3,237 / $3,250e
09/13/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.06 : 70.07 : xx.xx ... $3,223 / $3,195
09/20/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.18 : 70.05 : xx.xx ... $3,222 / $3,120e
09/27/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.92 : 70.95 : xx.xx ... $3,264 / $3,278
==== : Rise from LOW : 28.5%: 29.5% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC

WeekEnded : HangSI- SQx22: Hk12 :: CCLI : MMIdx ... MMI x46 / CaribC
10/04/2009 : 20,375 - 3,140 : 48.60 :: 72.70 : 70.81 ... $3,257 / $3,096
10/11/2009 : 21,499 - 3,226 : 51.75 :: 73.80 : 71.57 ... $3,292 / $3,257
10/18/2009 : 21,930 - 3,258 : 53.55 :: 73.37 : 71.38 ... $3,283 / $3,283
10/25/2009 : 22,590 - 3,307 : 55.30 :: 73.39 : 71.16 ... $3,273 / $3,247
11/01/2009 : 21,753 - 3,245 : 55.80 :: 73.74 : 71.30 ... $3,280 / $3,150 (Dist.$2,150?)
11/08/2009 : 21,830 - 3,250 : 56.30 :: 73.52 : 71.20 ... $3,275 / $3,161
11/15/2009 : 22,554 - 3,304 : 53.95 :: 73.91 : 71.42 ... $3,285 / $3,304
11/22/2009 : 22,456 - 3,297 : 54.20 :: 73.56 : 71.05 ... $3,xxx / $3,304
11/29/2009 : 21,135 - 3,198 : 51.70 :: 72.61 : 70.00 ... $3,220 / $3,157
12/06/2009 : 22,498 - 3,300 : 59.15 :: 73.03 : 70.87 ... $3,260 / $3,110
12/13/2009 : 21,902 - 3,256 : 57.80 :: 72.79 : 70.61 ... $3,248 / $3,293
12/20/2009 : 21,176 - 3,201 : 55.00 :: 73.08 : 70.79 ... $3,256 / $3,200e
12/27/2009 : 21,517 - 3,227 : 57.65 :: 73.23 : 70.95 ... $3,263 / $3,350
Rise from Low 89.7%: 37.7% : 151% :: 29.1%: 29.5% MMI x46 / +31.8%
LOW.......... : 11,345 - 2343 : 23.00 :: 56.71 : 54.77 ... $2,519 / $2,541

01/03/2010 : 21,873 - 3,254 : 58.40 :: 74.07 : 71.77 ... $3,301 / $3,275
01/10/2010 : 22,297 - 3,285 : 59.25 :: 74.87 : 72.69 ... $3,344 / $3,261
01/17/2010 : 21,654 - 3,237 : 56.10 :: 75.08 : 72.86 ... $3,352 / $3,424
01/24/2010 : 20,726 - 3,167 : 51.20 :: 76.17 : 74.09 ... $3,408 / $3,283
01/31/2010 : 20,122 - 3,197 : 49.15 :: 76.05 : 73.55 ... $3,383 / $3,215
02/07/2010 : 19,665 - 3,085 : 47.55 :: 76.67 : 74.25 ... $3,416 / $3,342
02/14/2010 : 20,269 - 3,132 : 50.60 :: 77.03 : 74.57 ... $3,430 / $3,234
02/21/2010 : 19,894 - 3,103 : 48.60 :: 77.26 : 74.74 ... $3,438 / $3,249
02/28/2010 : 20,609 - 3,158 : 52.45 :: 77.96 : 75.65 ... $3,480 / $3.303
03/07/2010 : 20,788 - 3,172 : 53.95 :: 77.01 : 74.72 ... $3,437 / $3,561
03/14/2010 : 21,210 - 3,204 : 54.70 :: 77.24 : 74.82 ... $3,442 / $3,267
03/21/2010 : 21,371 - 3,216 : 56.35 :: 78.63 : 76.43 ... $3,515 / $3,376 : $8,003
03/28/2010 : 21,053 - 3,192 : 56.05 :: 78.69 : 76.25 ... $3,508 / $3,442 : $8,010
Rise from Low 85.6%: 36.4% : 144% : 38.8%: 39.2% MMI x46 / +36.6%

04/04/2010 : 21,537 - 3,229 : 54.90 :: 78.64 : 76.26 ... $3,508 / $3,460 : $7,900e
04/11/2010 : 22,209 - 3,279 : 55.15 :: 78.48 : 76.11 ... $3,501 / $3,498 : $8,045
04/18/2010 : 21,865 - 3,253 : 53.10 :: 79.39 : 77.16 ... $3,549 / $3,457 : $8,313
04/25/2010 : 21,244 - 3,207 : 50.40 :: 78.77 : 76.47 ... $3,518 / $3,624 : $8,178
05/02/2010 : 21,109 - 3,196 : 49.85 :: 80.68 : 78.20 ... $3,597 / $3,479 : $8,406
05/09/2010 : 19,920 - 3,105 : 47.35 :: 79.86 : 77.42 ... $3,561 / $3,746 : $8,321
05/16/2010 : 20,145 - 3,123 : 46.55 :: 80.06 : 77.55 ... $3,567 / $3,735 : $8,313
05/23/2010 : 19,546 - 3,076 : 43.60 :: 80.32 : 77.67 ... $3,573 / $3,716 : $8,101
05/30/2010 : 19,767 - 3,093 : 46.80 :: 79.16 : 76.47 ... $3,518 / $3,533 : $8,309
06/06/2010 : 19,780 - 3,094 : 46.70 :: 79.48 : 76.88 ... $3,537 / $3,671 : $8,505
06/13/2010 : 19,872 - 3,101 : 46.60 :: 79.68 : 77.08 ... $3,xxx / $3,500 : $8,496
06/20/2010 : 20,287 - X,XXx : 46.20 :: 79.12 : 76.25 ... $3,xxx / $3,599 : $8,314
06/27/2010 : 20,691 - X,XXx : 47.65 :: 80.12 : 77.43 ... $3,xxx / $3,721 : $8,433
Rise from Low xx.x%: 36.4% : 1xx% :

07/04/2010 : 19,905 - X,xxx : 46.10 :: 80.15 : 77.33 ... $3,xxx / $3,620 : $8,117
07/11/2010 : 20,379 - X,xxx : 47.20 :: 80.90 : 78.62 ... $3,xxx / $3,711 : $8,161
07/18/2010 : 20,250 - X,xxx : 46.10 :: 81.18 : 78.65 ... $3,xxx / $3,575 : $8,595
07/25/2010 : 20,815 - X,xxx : 48.65 :: 81.88 : 79.35 ... $3,xxx / $3,777 : $8,541
08/01/2010 : 21,030 - X,xxx : 48.35 ::
08/08/2010 : 2x,xxx - X,xxx : 4x.xx ::

Here's Centaline's Weekly Mass Market Index (MMI) + 10/06/2008

.......... Jan'08 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Dec

It looks like the correction since CNY continued for some months.
We are coming up on 12 months since the Oct.2007 stock peak, and MMI has fallen to
the approximate level of the 12months MA ($65.89). This could be a support level.




== ==
35tr.: Number of transactions in Midland's 35 key Residental projects
prv : Number in prior year // (Midland's data offset by one week for both)

50key: late April: 401 vs. 374 in prior week. But prices fell 0.4 percent
"Buyers becoming more active, as they see sellers are reluctant to lower prices"

Sorry, can you explain what the figures mean?
What the columns are and the abbreviations? and where I can find them?
many thanks, Starterpack

35tr... : 35 main estates tracked by Midland
prv ... : Previous year's figure
CCLI. : Centaline's weekly index
MMLI. : Centaline's weekly index for the Mass Market
18wkMA: 18week Moving Average of the above
Last... : Last column is the average price per sf for Caribbean Coast

Online calculators: http://www.metacalc.com/

[Steve Netwriter]

I've been told that this provides better gold prices:

Pool Accounts
https://online.kitco.com/sellprice/selling_pools.html

[Pixel8r]

Here's a good interactive Gold Price Chart web site

http://www.usagold.com/live.html

[DrBubb]

Added to the GEI-Links page:

Theme songs.... : I Get knocked Down : Goldfinger : Diamonds are Forever : Turn Turn Turn

"Diamonds are Forever" - in honor of patient shareholders in Firestone Diamonds (FDI.L)

FDI chart ... update
- Updated : 5-09-2008


Which has recently announced some great results suggesting the possibility that MK1 in Botswana
may potentially be "the world's largest diamond resource"
==

(in edit- as it turned out: Results at MK1 were disappointing... in a weak market) ... update

[Steve Netwriter]

I use this for an overview of all the markets.
It's amazing to see them all very red except for gold like the other day !

Market Summary:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorit...p;cmd=show,iday[Y]&disp=SXA

Also for charting currencies and gold/silver (and they've just added Brent fut. 1st pos):
http://www.netdania.com/ChartApplet.asp?symbol=USDJPY

It's similar to the USAGold one, but I think a little better. At least for what I look at.

[DrBubb]

House prices in gold in the US:

[MunsterK]

I like http://futuresource.quote.com/ and find myself regularly checking http://www.cstrading.com/charts.htm to 'zoom back out' and understand long term trends.

MunsterK

[DrBubb]

MORE great links from The Netwriter...

This is a great source of DATA

World Gold Council - Investing in Gold
http://www.invest.gold.org/sites/en/en/how_to_invest/
Charts of Gold price against currencies: http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics...yshort2000.html
Once logged in you can download Excel data from here: http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/prices/index.html
In Excel, make sure the analysis tools are enabled in Tools->Add-ins..., and use Chart -> Add Trendline.... And select "moving average".
Here: http://www.research.gold.org/prices/ - including 1900-2006 in £
Here: http://www.research.gold.org/investment/
Here: http://www.invest.gold.org/sites/en/faqs/#12

Daily gold prices from 2000 to now: from here http://www.research.gold.org/prices/
or directly from here: http://www.gold.org/deliver.php?file=/valu...s/web_daily.xls (updated weekly)

Forecasts for the coming year: http://www.lbma.org.uk/publications/2008survey.pdf

Steve

[littledavesab]

I like - Motley Fool discussion boards
iii.co.uk is similar to AVDN - but I prefer iii as is less cluttered in style

And recently I have discovered google finance and igoogle as a home page

what you can do with a igoogle account is create a personalised home page that constatly updates so mine has bbc football results, my google finance portfolio - now in £Sterling apart from my US stocks, a brain trainer, Reuters business news, and for fun a brain trainer and quotes of the day plus a heck of a lot more. I did have ft.com but got fed up with their log in/pay policy.

The great thing is that whenever you go to home page it updates itself you you get instant breaking news

If you link your google finance portfolio you can watch its progress - sounds sad maybe but beats my insurance job! Anyway google finance gives you instant news stories on your stocks. Quite a simple way to keep up to date.

Ps GEI is OK also - maybe I shpuld link that also!

[DrBubb]

"Gold stocks are not gold." - Cgnao

Oh, yes.
Nor are oil stocks oil or cotton companies cotton.
One thing I have learnt this past year is that nothing trades like the real thing

Yes, but Major Gold stocks (as in the HUI) have come very close to tracking Gold.



And Juniors (CDNX in blue) may still have their day ... update : 1 year

[DrBubb]

BENCHMARK: Henderson Properties normally leads the HK Property index

Centaline's Property index:
...

Henderson Land (HK:12) ... update : CKH-hk1 : SHKP-hk16 : HLP-hk101


Henderson Land (HK:12)
Low for the year : $4.19 (03.Jul.2008)
Close today ...... : $46.05 (04.Jul.2008) : -$0.45 on the day

Daily chart ... update


== ==

BENCHMARK: Here's a HK Estate Agent that I use as a benchmark

Midland Holdings (HK:1200) looks like it could put in a bottom somewhere near $4 (and potentially down to $3.25)



Low for the year : $4.19 (03.Jul.2008)
Close today ...... : $5.01 (04.Jul.2008) : Nice bounce!

Daily chart ... update


==(added 9 July)===:
Henderson, the bellwether, suggests that HK Developers may be at/near a low now ... update



The second arrow (current) may be identifying the same sort of inflection point as the first arrow

[DrBubb]

Plenty of good links here:
http://www.freebuck.com/links.shtml

[DrBubb]

I have a secret source. These are realtime, and meant to be private.
But I will share a link with you, which is similar, and has a 15 minute delay.

GLD: 10d-Intraday : 3yrs-Daily // Gold : 1yr-Daily : 5yr- Weekly

yesterday's chart:


BTW, that's a big buy: 2.7 million GLD shares = 270,000 ounces at $800/oz, that's : $21.6 million

Buying like that can turn the market around. Let's see if there are more BUY orders like that.

[chris ct]

1/
It might be worth a link to the vaporize comex page:
http://meltdown2011.wordpress.com/2008/11/...omex-countdown/
2/
Page for troubled US banks..
http://www.geocities.com/tubeguy@rogers.co...oubledbanks.htm

[darreng1000]

I use this one for a quick overview of various markets, commodities, currencies etc...

research.cityindex.co.uk

[DrBubb]

Prospects for China's Property Market in 2009

Speaker: Mr. Alva Y H To
Director, Head of Consultancy, North Asia DTZ / 23 March 2009, 12:30-14:00, HKGCC Theatre

In order to help investors build a more comprehensive understanding of the property market in China, HKGCC has invited Mr. Alva To from DTZ to present a review and forecast of the residential, office and retail markets in the Mainland.

An interesting talk, backed up by some very good charts.
The one I liked best was showing the timing of certain large mass transit projects underway in:
Shenzhen and Shanghai (2012), Beijing (2015), ang Hangzhou (201?)

It is hard for me to imagine the property markets fall much from current levels, as those mass transit projects move towards competion.

Alva To's own forecast was that prices would tend to stabilise in 2009-2010, and then start moving higher in 2011. He didnt want to say too much about the possibibility of prices rising sooner, thanks to the mass transit projects, but he did agree with the point in my question that these projects would help. He said that HK's property market soared in the early-mid-1990's as HK's MTR system was built out. (Note: My own thinking was that money that was previously "wasted" on slow and expensive transport, could now go into property, as the mass transit expansion is finished.)

The chart for Shenzhen look to me that prices had fallen back to a support level, and could rally from there.

Today's column by Tom Holland in the SCMP had some interesting charts
"No Recovery in sight yet for China's property developers", it was called.
But I dont think his charts necessarily supported his arguments. What they did show was some deep falls, but not necessarily why prices should go on sliding. (But then, Tom does tend to see things in China from the bearish standpoint.)

"Good, bad, and ugly" - he called the charts, from which I derived this data
========
Four Cities=== : Price Change : Jan-Feb Sales : Time to clear
Shenzhen ....... : - 34.0 % yoy : +169 % yr-o-y : 11 months
Guangzhou ..... : - 13.9 % yoy : +61.1% yoy... : 12 months
Beijing ........... : - 13.8 % yoy : +27.5 % yoy... : 21 months
Shanghai ........ :+ 14.3 % yoy : - 4.3 % yoy ... : 8 months

Meantime, we are seeing this price action:

China Overseas (HK:688) ... update


Soho China (HK:410) ... update : Daily-2yrs


Here's Tom Holland's conclusion: "Although credit conditions for cash-strapped developers have eased, sales volumes have picked up and share prices have bounced, real recovery in the mainland property market remains a distant prospect."

My response to him: "Tom, dont you recall that the share prices will oft lead the physical property market? If so, perhaps you should stay alert for reasons why a turnaround might happen. Here's one: Look at the impact of big spending on mass transit systems in these cities, with the prices of nearby property? Many Chinese buyers are sitting on big savings. Perhaps they will want to jump into the property before the systems are finished. An upward surge in "connected" properties, will help to raise values through-out these cities.

I will watch Chinese property prices with great interest. They have potential to help drag HK back up, especially if Shenzhen goes into full recovery mode.

I went to see Alva To's talk at the HKGCC yesterday, and at the end I was able to ask a question about the HK market, and he seems to be thinking it is a bit of a dead cat, but he also seem to betray a bit of surprise that things are as healthy as they are. He gave an explanation for the "bounce", but he clearly wants to avoid sounding optimistic on either China or HK at this stage. I wonder why?

Alva said that HK prices are low enough that they are highly "affordable" for potential buyers.

The recent bounce is being driven by "own use" buyers, who have the money, can afford the current mortgage rates, and do not want to miss out, in case the current rally continues. He says that a similar (dead cat) bounce also happened after the big drop in 1997.

Current prices certainly are affordable. In DTZ's measure, they use prices in Taikoo Shing, and the median household income of the average HK family.

Here's his comparison (the psf figures are my own estimates)
===============
1997 Peak ....... : 150% : $ 8,500 psf / $ 5,700 income?
2002/3 Low ...... : 30 % : $ 3,000 psf
2008, March high: 83?% : $ 8,300 psf / $10,000 income?
2009, current ... : 62 % : $ 6,200 psf

Taikoo Shing ... update


What happened after the early 1998 bounce was that prices headed lower, as unemployment in HK continued to rise. At the SARS low in 2002/3, prices were a complete bargain, but people were too afraid to buy, as HK unemployment hit 8.6%. The same fears could creep back in during 2009 if local unemployment continues to rise. In the latest months of January and February, unemployment rose by 0.5% and 0.4%. These are worrying figures, and if such job destructioon continues, it could destroy the fragile confidence within the property market.

[GTG]

The world markets indices on one page http://www.indexq.org/

[DrBubb]

EXTRA RECORD ===

Week==== : 35tr : prv : CCLI. : MMLI. : 18wkMA .. before /18
01/06/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 64.98
01/13/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 67.93
01/20/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 68.05
01/27/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 69.13
02/03/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 71.08
02/10/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 70.33
02/17/2008 : 137 : xxx : 73.81 : 71.08 : 63.41 ..
02/24/2008 : 153 : xxx : 73.28 : 70.33 : 64.15
03/02/2008 : 159 : xxx : 73.98 : 71.07 : 64.92
03/09/2008 : 186 : xxx : 73.5E : 70.5E : 65.61
03/16/2008 : 169 : 218 : 73.01 : 69.97 : 66.22
03/23/2008 : 121 : xxx : 72.79 : 69.72 : 66.78
03/30/2008 : 134 : 203 : 72.89 : 70.06 : 67.29
04/06/2008 : 146 : 193 : 73.75 : 70.91 : 67.82
04/13/2008 : 124 : xxx : 71.93 : 69.02 : 68.17 .. 1,227.11
04/20/2008 : 160e: xxx : 72.57 : 69.77 : 68.51 .. 1,233.11
04/27/2008 : 171 : xxx : 71.49 : 68.58 : 68.78 .. 1,238.04
05/04/2008 : 173 : 253 : 71.44 : 68.61 : 69.02 .. 1,242.33 / C.C.
05/11/2008 : 178 : 232 : 71.51 : 68.59 : 69.22 .. 1245.94 / $3,115
05/18/2008 : 150 : xxx : 71.86 : 69.11 : 69.40 .. 1249.20 / $3,085
05/25/2008 : 185 : 209 : 72.67 : 69.87 : 69.57 .. 1252.30 / $3,115
06/01/2008 : 170 : xxx : 72.16 : 69.26 : 69.65 .. 1253.63 / $3,127
06/07/2008 : 183 : 203 : 73.23 : 70.26 : 69.77 .. 1255.84 / $3,295 (! High in CC ?)
06/14/2008 : 171 : 211 : 71.30 : 69.61 : 69.80 .. 1256.32 / $3,154
06/21/2008 : 150e: xxx : 72.62 : 69.39 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,030 (reflecting: 6/16 - 6/22)
06/28/2008 : 130e: xxx : 73.38 : 70.27 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,111
07/05/2008 : 116 : xxx : 72.77 : 69.70 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,240
07/12/2008 : 109 : 262 : 72.38 : 69.41 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,192
07/19/2008 : 104 : 268 : 71.84 : 68.78 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,025
07/26/2008 : 115 : 333 : 71.55 : 68.47 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,324
08/02/2008 : 124 : 268 : 70.81 : 67.59 : 69.xx .. ==== / $3,194 (testing lows again!)
08/09/2008 : 112 : 224 : 70.46 : 67.24 : 69.09 .. 65.05 / $2,870
08/16/2008 : 107 : xxx : 70.49 : 67.31 : 68.99 .. 65.27 / $3,140
08/23/2008 : 104 : 157 : 70.13 : 66.92 : 68.83 .. 65.48 / $3,265
08/30/2008 : 123 : 212 : 69.94 : 66.86 : 68.74 .. 65.70 / $3,097
09/06/2008 : 121 : xxx : 68.93 : 65.93 : 68.59 .. 65.89 / $2,974 (testing again...)
09/15/2008 : 098 : xxx : 68.40 : 65.44 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,070e
09/22/2008 : 083 : xxx : 68.26 : 65.26 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,192
09/29/2008 : 080 : 329 : 67.52 : 64.46 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,160
10/06/2008 : 084 : 391 : 67.44 : 64.61 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,097 : Black Oct. week
10/13/2008 : 104 : xxx : 66.27 : 63.79 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,159
10/20/2008 : 090 : 422 : 64.64 : 62.01 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,925
10/27/2008 : 113 : xxx : 63.40 : 60.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,950e
11/03/2008 : 132 : xxx : 61.61 : 59.09 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,984
11/10/2008 : 157 : xxx : 59.93 : 57.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,642
11/17/2008 : 129 : 465 : 57.43 : 55.41 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,609
11/24/2008 : 102 : 337 : 57.00 : 55.03 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,496
12/01/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.92 : 54.99 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,500e
12/08/2008 : xxx : xxx : 57.15 : 55.19 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,512
12/15/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.71 : 54.77 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,541 (( LOW ))
12/22/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.93 : 54.99 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,670e
12/29/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.78 : 54.89 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,581
(Cal. 2009)
01/05/2009 : 191 : xxx : 57.52 : 55.75 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,649
01/12/2009 : 187 : 396 : 57.51 : 55.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,698
01/19/2009 : 187 : 396 : 57.99 : 56.42 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612
01/26/2009 : ??? : 396 : 58.38 : 56.87 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,626
02/03/2009 : 056 : ??? : 58.53 : 57.02 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612
02/10/2009 : 124 : 072 : 58.35 : 56.75 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612
02/17/2009 : 152 : 137 : 58.70 : 57.28 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,656
02/24/2009 : 161 : 153 : 58.62 : 57.02 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,545
03/03/2009 : 175 : 159 : 59.45 : 57.78 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,732
03/10/2009 : 157 : 186 : 59.47 : 57.87 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,660e
03/17/2009 : 184 : 169 : 59.74 : 58.25 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,742
03/24/2009 : 240 : 121 : 59.43 : 57.90 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,540
03/31/2009 : 318 : 134 : 60.20 : 58.71 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,595
==== : Rise from LOW : 6.15%: 7.30% ==== MMI x46 / CaribC

04/07/2009 : 365 : 146 : 60.10 : 58.48 : xx.xx ... $2,690 / $2,692
04/14/2009 : 327 : 124 : 60.66 : 59.20 : xx.xx ... $2,723 / $2,722
04/21/2009 : 291 : 129 : 61.50 : 60.06 : xx.xx ... $2,763 / $2,695
04/28/2009 : 258 : 171 : 62.83 : 61.29 : xx.xx ... $2,819 / $2,683
05/05/2009 : 157 : 173 : 63.08 : 61.43 : xx.xx ... $2,826 / $2,781
05/12/2009 : 239 : 178 : 64.34 : 62.48 : xx.xx ... $2,874 / $2,634
05/17/2009 : 270 : 150 : 64.30 : 62.56 : xx.xx ... $2,878 / $2,787
05/24/2009 : 242 : 185 : 64.35 : 62.72 : xx.xx ... $2,885 / $2,804
05/31/2009 : 316 : 170 : 65.49 : 63.62 : xx.xx ... $2,926 / $2,944
06/07/2009 : 320 : 183 : 65.00 : 63.18 : xx.xx ... $2,906 / $2,881
06/14/2009 : xxx : xxx : 65.82 : 64.07 : xx.xx ... $2,947 / $2,874
06/21/2009 : xxx : xxx : 67.11 : 65.49 : xx.xx ... $3,013 / $2,967
06/28/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.42 : 66.77 : xx.xx ... $3,071 / $2,955
==== : Rise from LOW : 20.6%: 21.9% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC

WeekEnded : HangSI : Hk12 ::
07/05/2009 : 18,203 : 43.70 :: 67.59 : 65.59 ... $3,071 / $2,906
07/12/2009 : 17,708 : 41.65 :: 68.46 : 66.52 ... $3,060 / $2,948
07/19/2009 : 18,806 : 44.80 :: 68.62 : 66.73 ... $3,070 / $2,996
07/26/2009 : 19,983 : 47.55 :: 68.71 : 66.89 ... $3,077 / $3,043
08/02/2009 : 20,573 : 51.20 :: 69.44 : 67.10 ... $3,087 / $3,140
08/09/2009 : 20,375 : 48.75 :: 69.51 : 67.33 ... $3,097 / $3,088E?
08/16/2009 : 20,893 : 47.80 :: 70.12 : 67.62 ... $3,111 / $3,206 +7.00% in a month!
08/23/2009 : 20,199 : 47.10 :: 70.79 : 68.50 ... $3,151 / $3,084
08/30/2009 : 20,099 : 47.05 :: 70.72 : 68.31 ... $3,142 / $3,311
09/06/2009 : 20,319 : 48.30 :: 72.64 : 70.38 ... $3,237 / $3,250e
09/13/2009 : 21,161 : 51.05 :: 72.06 : 70.07 ... $3,223 / $3,195
09/20/2009 : 21,623 : 51.50 :: 72.18 : 70.05 ... $3,222 / $3,120e
09/27/2009 : 21,024 : 49.75 :: 72.92 : 70.95 ... $3,264 / $3,278
==== : Rise from LOW : xx.x%: xx.x% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC

WeekEnded : HangSI- SQx22: Hk12 :: CCLI : MMIdx ... MMI x46 / CaribC
10/04/2009 : 20,375 - 3,140 : 48.60 :: 72.70 : 70.81 ... $3,257 / $3,096
10/11/2009 : 21,499 - 3,226 : 51.75 :: 73.80 : 71.57 ... $3,292 / $3,257
10/18/2009 : 21,930 - 3,258 : 53.55 :: 73.37 : 71.38 ... $3,283 / $3,283
10/25/2009 : 22,590 - 3,307 : 55.30 :: 73.39 : 71.16 ... $3,273 / $3,247
11/01/2009 : 21,753 - 3,245 : 55.80 :: 73.74 : 71.30 ... $3,280 / $3,150 (Dist.$2,150?)
11/08/2009 : 21,830 - 3,250 : 56.30 :: 73.52 : 71.20 ... $3,275 / $3,161
11/15/2009 : 22,554 - 3,304 : 53.95 :: 73.91 : 71.42 ... $3,285 / $3,304
11/22/2009 : 22,456 - 3,297 : 54.20 :: 73.56 : 71.05 ... $3,xxx / $3,304
11/29/2009 : 21,135 - 3,198 : 51.70 :: 72.61 : 70.00 ... $3,220 / $3,157
12/06/2009 : 22,498 - 3,300 : 59.15 :: 73.03 : 70.87 ... $3,260 / $3,110
12/13/2009 : 21,902 - 3,256 : 57.80 :: 72.79 : 70.61 ... $3,248 / $3,293
12/20/2009 : 21,176 - 3,201 : 55.00 :: 73.08 : 70.79 ... $3,256 / $3,200e
12/27/2009 : 21,517 - 3,227 : 57.65 :: 73.23 : 70.95 ... $3,263 / $3,350
Rise from Low 89.7%: 37.7% : 151% :: 29.1%: 29.5% MMI x46 / +31.8%
LOW.......... : 11,345 - 2343 : 23.00 :: 56.71 : 54.77 ... $2,519 / $2,541

01/03/2010 : 21,873 - 3,254 : 58.40 :: 74.07 : 71.77 ... $3,301 / $3,275
01/10/2010 : 22,297 - 3,285 : 59.25 :: 74.87 : 72.69 ... $3,344 / $3,261
01/17/2010 : 21,654 - 3,237 : 56.10 :: 75.08 : 72.86 ... $3,352 / $3,424
01/24/2010 : 20,726 - 3,167 : 51.20 :: 76.17 : 74.09 ... $3,408 / $3,283
01/31/2010 : 20,122 - 3,197 : 49.15 :: 76.05 : 73.55 ... $3,383 / $3,215
02/07/2010 : 19,665 - 3,085 : 47.55 :: 76.67 : 74.25 ... $3,416 / $3,342
02/14/2010 : 20,269 - 3,132 : 50.60 :: 77.03 : 74.57 ... $3,430 / $3,234
02/21/2010 : 19,894 - 3,103 : 48.60 :: 77.26 : 74.74 ... $3,438 / $3,249
02/28/2010 : 20,609 - 3,158 : 52.45 :: 77.96 : 75.65 ... $3,480 / $3.303
03/07/2010 : 20,788 - 3,172 : 53.95 :: 77.01 : 74.72 ... $3,437 / $3,561
03/14/2010 : 21,210 - 3,204 : 54.70 :: 77.24 : 74.82 ... $3,442 / $3,267
03/21/2010 : 21,371 - 3,216 : 56.35 :: 78.63 : 76.43 ... $3,515 / $3,376 : $8,003
03/28/2010 : 21,053 - 3,192 : 56.05 :: 78.69 : 76.25 ... $3,508 / $3,442 : $8,010
Rise from Low 85.6%: 36.4% : 144% : 38.8%: 39.2% MMI x46 / +36.6%

04/04/2010 : 21,537 - 3,229 : 54.90 :: 78.64 : 76.26 ... $3,508 / $3,460 : $7,900e
04/11/2010 : 22,209 - 3,279 : 55.15 :: 78.48 : 76.11 ... $3,501 / $3,498 : $8,045
04/18/2010 : 21,865 - 3,253 : 53.10 :: 79.39 : 77.16 ... $3,549 / $3,457 : $8,313
04/25/2010 : 21,244 - 3,207 : 50.40 :: 78.77 : 76.47 ... $3,518 / $3,624 : $8,178
05/02/2010 : 21,109 - 3,196 : 49.85 :: 80.68 : 78.20 ... $3,597 / $3,479 : $8,406
05/09/2010 : 19,920 - 3,105 : 47.35 :: 79.86 : 77.42 ... $3,561 / $3,746 : $8,321
05/16/2010 : 20,145 - 3,123 : 46.55 :: 80.06 : 77.55 ... $3,567 / $3,735 : $8,313
05/23/2010 : 19,546 - 3,076 : 43.60 :: 80.32 : 77.67 ... $3,573 / $3,716 : $8,101
05/30/2010 : 19,767 - 3,093 : 46.80 :: 79.16 : 76.47 ... $3,518 / $3,533 : $8,309
06/06/2010 : 19,780 - 3,094 : 46.70 :: 79.48 : 76.88 ... $3,537 / $3,671 : $8,505
06/13/2010 : 19,872 - 3,101 : 46.60 :: 79.68 : 77.08 ... $3,xxx / $3,500 : $8,496
06/20/2010 : 20,287 - X,XXx : 46.20 :: 79.12 : 76.25 ... $3,xxx / $3,599 : $8,314
06/27/2010 : 20,691 - X,XXx : 47.65 :: 80.12 : 77.43 ... $3,xxx / $3,721 : $8,433
Rise from Low xx.x%: 36.4% : 1xx% :

07/04/2010 : 19,905 - X,xxx : 46.10 :: 80.15 : 77.33 ... $3,xxx / $3,620 : $8,117
07/11/2010 : 20,379 - X,xxx : 47.20 ::



SUMMARY:
Week Ending
=========
TOP: ............... CCLI : MMI. x 46 : Est.CC / CaribC
Mar.02/2008... 73.98 : 71.07 x46: $3,269 / $ N/A
2nd high:
Jun.28/2008... 73.38 : 70.27 x46: $3,232 / $3,111 ($3,295- 06/07/08)
LOW:
Dec.15/2008... 56.71 : 54.77 x46: $2,519 / $2,541 ($2,496- 11/24/08)
==from HIGH -23.3% -22.9% == - 22.9%/ ==== ( - 24.2%)
NOW:
Jun.28/2009... 68.42 : 66.77 x46: $3,071 / $2,955
==from LOW : 20.6%: 21.9%: == 21.9% / 16.3% (+ 18.4%)

That's volatility !
In Hong Kong, Prices fell by 23% in less than 6 months, and then rose by 22%
in just over 6 months, to be just 2-4% below where they were a year before

[chris ct]

new troubled banks list..

http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbanks.htm