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The Naked Trader (Robbie Burns)


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#1 No6

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Posted 02 January 2008 - 09:57 PM

THE NAKED TRADER (Robbie Burns)

Naked Trader can be followed at his website below.

http://www.frequenttrader.info/p2.html

From the site.

Well, I've been buying. Let's call it Robbie's Xmas goodie sack. I've had a giant bank of cash on the sidelines and I've plunged in with some of it buying 7 stocks!

Out of the sack first: Tullow Oil (TLW). I took advantage of the crazy mark down yesterday morning - didn't quite manage to catch the bottom but it was a real present from Santa and I got 1,000 shares at 594.81p. And £10 on the spreads at 596. Just promoted to the FTSE100 these could be 900p by this time next year - so a medium term hold. Target 850 stop 565

Santa sack 2: New Brit Palm Oil (NBPO). Remember I had trouble getting hold of these but thanks to e-trade (no thanks to Barclays) I got 2,000 more shares at 293.5p. After getting 285 on the spreads in my last update these have soared nicely to 325. Massive institutional buying! I hope to hold onto mine now for quite some time and I think they could double this year as I think Palm Oil is going to be the next big thing.

Santa Sack buy 3: I bought back VP Group (VP.) - 1,000 shares at 318.3p. Lovely company that's been unfairly marked down. I think it could go back up just as fast. Target 420 stop 280.

Santa Sack buy 4: Fenner (FENR). Made a heap of money on this one in the past and it's time for me to re-enter. I love the look of the volume that came in the other day and bought back in on the strength of that for 1,800 shares at 232.2. Target 280 stop 192. I think something may be afoot! We shall see!

Santa Sack buy 5: Keller (KLR) - again made lots on these in the past - the current price is silly especially as the expected profits warning didn't occur yesterday. I got 500 shares at 657.97. Target 780 stop 625. It's been marked down way too much on sub prime fears.

Santa Sack 6: Petrofac. (PFC). I've topped up. I don't expect this one to be around this time next year. My favourite sector! Added 1,000 new shares at 529.5 to add to the ones I bought a while back. Target 700 stop 485.

And finally! Santa Sack buy 7: £40 a point spreadbet in PV Crystallox (PVCS) at 135. Its solar markets really should boom next year - made some money on this one earlier in the year and with some monumental buying going on today, could easily bounce a lot higher. Target 185 stop 120.


New Brit Palm Oil (NBPO) looks interesting although it has flown since IPO. Could fall back some way as credit crunch fears hit the market. Lets see if the share price holds up tomorrow if London takes a tumble first thing.

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 03 January 2008 - 01:23 AM

Thanks for starting the thread, No.6.

There's seems to be alot of interest in Robbie Burns strategies, and in his simple way of explaining things.
I will see what other links I can come up with.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 riggerbeautz

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Posted 03 January 2008 - 08:50 AM

New Brit Palm Oil (NBPO) looks interesting although it has flown since IPO. Could fall back some way as credit crunch fears hit the market. Lets see if the share price holds up tomorrow if London takes a tumble first thing.


Read the book logged on to the IPO site suggested in his book and picked them out. Feeling pleased now, had no idea he'd tipped them as i'd not read his site in any detail. But the point he makes in his book about fairly large IPO's seemed to be bearing fruit. Agree it might fall back, but it seems to demonstrate his point that institutions buy heavily into these IPO's and they motor for some time after, particularly in a good market.
Never stop questioning - Einstein

When you blame others you give up your power to change - Douglas Noel Adams

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#4 Arn

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Posted 03 January 2008 - 01:46 PM

Read the book logged on to the IPO site suggested in his book and picked them out. Feeling pleased now, had no idea he'd tipped them as i'd not read his site in any detail. But the point he makes in his book about fairly large IPO's seemed to be bearing fruit. Agree it might fall back, but it seems to demonstrate his point that institutions buy heavily into these IPO's and they motor for some time after, particularly in a good market.


Not always. Nrystar has dropped up to 25% so far.
http://www.greenener...amp;#entry27414

A good exit for the sellers.

#5 Arn

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Posted 03 January 2008 - 01:50 PM

A problem for Plantations is the long time between raising funds, buying land (and avoiding all the land purchase issues in the developing world), preparing the land to finally selling the crop. During this time there is no income.

You will also see other plantations getting hit soon as Coffee plantation land etc have been overused and not rested. Currently coffee quality is going down on quite a few plantations and they will be forced to rest them. This could drive coffee bean prices up in the short run.

NB if you want a good coffee now try the West Indian varieties grown in Papua New Guinea. Right bean for virgin coffee growing soil.

#6 riggerbeautz

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Posted 03 January 2008 - 05:37 PM

Not always. Nrystar has dropped up to 25% so far.
http://www.greenener...amp;#entry27414

A good exit for the sellers.


Hi Arn,

Thanks for pointing Nrystar out, if zinc prices recover it might be worth a play.

Doubt Mr N.T would have bought for this reason, he advises against buying in weak sector's which Nrystar would have been a plum stock in such sector, similar to Griffin.

Riggers
Never stop questioning - Einstein

When you blame others you give up your power to change - Douglas Noel Adams

Beware of MOOD HOOVERS they have a mission.

#7 No6

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Posted 03 January 2008 - 07:23 PM

Hi Arn,

Thanks for pointing Nrystar out, if zinc prices recover it might be worth a play.

Doubt Mr N.T would have bought for this reason, he advises against buying in weak sector's which Nrystar would have been a plum stock in such sector, similar to Griffin.

Riggers

His purchase of Keller does go against the weak sector argument though.

"Santa Sack buy 5: Keller (KLR) - again made lots on these in the past - the current price is silly especially as the expected profits warning didn't occur yesterday. I got 500 shares at 657.97. Target 780 stop 625. It's been marked down way too much on sub prime fears."

It is in the construction sector and actually does look a good company, but right now the market thinks sub-prime and bang.

Today - 628.00p -49.00p (-7.24%)

This one is close to his stop.

He had big winners today in Tullow and PVC.

#8 riggerbeautz

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Posted 03 January 2008 - 07:54 PM

His purchase of Keller does go against the weak sector argument though.

"Santa Sack buy 5: Keller (KLR) - again made lots on these in the past - the current price is silly especially as the expected profits warning didn't occur yesterday. I got 500 shares at 657.97. Target 780 stop 625. It's been marked down way too much on sub prime fears."

It is in the construction sector and actually does look a good company, but right now the market thinks sub-prime and bang.

Today - 628.00p -49.00p (-7.24%)

This one is close to his stop.

He had big winners today in Tullow and PVC.


Can't disagree, which is why it pays never to blindly follow. For instance, it would have ruled me out of Qti and many small caps. Although his strategies are based mainly around ISA investments, there has to be a place for some small caps, for existance junior miners; he concedes there are some good ones though by admission he puts odd one's in SIPP's.

Like all share guru's, they don't pick winner's all the time!

Nice to see he was in PVCS though.
Never stop questioning - Einstein

When you blame others you give up your power to change - Douglas Noel Adams

Beware of MOOD HOOVERS they have a mission.

#9 riggerbeautz

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Posted 03 January 2008 - 07:55 PM

Can't disagree, which is why it pays never to blindly follow. For instance, it would have ruled me out of Qti and many small caps. Although his strategies are based mainly around ISA investments, there has to be a place for some small caps, for existance junior miners; he concedes there are some good ones though by admission he puts odd one's in SIPP's.

Like all share guru's, they don't pick winner's all the time!

Nice to see he was in PVCS though.


Never stop questioning - Einstein

When you blame others you give up your power to change - Douglas Noel Adams

Beware of MOOD HOOVERS they have a mission.

#10 riggerbeautz

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Posted 03 January 2008 - 07:56 PM

D'ohh.....must read my posts....mean't to say for instance junior miners!
Never stop questioning - Einstein

When you blame others you give up your power to change - Douglas Noel Adams

Beware of MOOD HOOVERS they have a mission.

#11 No6

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Posted 03 January 2008 - 08:36 PM

One UK sector he has done well out of recently is oil and oil services.

Biggest winner on a bid was Burren Energy which gave him a 34,000 profit.

Sondex nearly 15,000 profits.

#12 No6

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Posted 04 January 2008 - 06:41 PM

Latest update from NT's site. Some will have been hit by today's falls. NT seems to have sold out of Keller for a small profit, then went back in. I wonder if he sold today as it fell another 7%, now 584. Some of the others have held up well.

Markets

All I can say is WOW! What an amazing start to 2008 it's been for the portfolio! And especially for those "Santa" bargain buys I made in the last update before Xmas! In fact I simply can't remember a better start to any year.

The best must be New Brit Palm Oil which I bought just before Xmas at 295 and is now 390! An amazing rise in double quick time - a good chance of this being a huge winner for me in 2008 (could be my new Wellstream).

Anyway more on all that shortly. First trades made since the last update first!.

I bought 2,000 shares in NCipher (NCH) at 220.333p today. It's just on the borderline as a buy risk wise as normally I don't buy companies much under 50m market cap. However I like the technology it has which is ID management and data protection and I wonder whether a bigger company might snap this one up sometime this year. Also it's bottomed out a number of times here so the chart looks good too! Target 265 stop 195.

The outlook for retailers in 2008 looks absolutely crap. And the more the newspapers tip things like Marks and Sparks and Next the more they look like shorts. So I've added Next as my "next" retail short (gettit?) shorting for a fiver at 1586. Target 1300 stop 1650. It's not that they had such a bad Xmas but their outlook is poor. People are tightening up. Wish I'd shorted them right at the start of the year as I nearly did at 1650 but never mind. I guess I wanted to wait for the statement first which cost me! Currently going down nicely and it could easily drop 200p from here.

Now to some top ups. One of the things I've been doing all last year was topping up on already successful buys and buying more at higher prices. I believe this is something traders can't bring themselves to do. I can!

I just had to top up with more PV Crystallox (PVCS) and bought a further 3,000 shares at 140p. Looks like it could be a biggie for 2008. I'm a bit worried though as it's one of the Investors Chronicle tips for 2008. Anyway I think it'll be noticed bigtime this year which is why I am now in quite heavily. Target 185 stop 120.

And of course I had to buy a last lot of New Brit Palm Oil (NBPO) my current red hot favourite and got another 1,700 shares at 329.888. Been through this one in great deal in the last few updates but like PVCS NBPO looks like a cracker for this year with its palm oil story - also bought some for my sister's ISA and my SIPP too. Target 500 stop 270

And even more of course good old Dragon Oil (DGO). Given I have shedloads of Dragon I wasn't expecting to buy more but the great volume yesterday tempted me and I added another 1,500 shares at 363.99p. Target 550 stop 340. I can see why there was such a lot of buyers around yesterday given the amazing statement today. Really top notch and this could and should be a bright star in 2008.

Keller (KLR) is a tricky one with lots of tiny trading pushing it up and down. However I took small profits selling at 666.03p to take a profit of 41 (disappointing as I could have sold at over 700) and then I bought back 500 shares at 627.44p. It really looks worth way more than this. However it is one to keep a wary eye on.

So as I was saying an amazing start to the year!

New Brit Palm Oil already sees me in a huge profit and I feel this has the making of a doubler for me for the year as it attracts attention. Trying to break 400p today, when it does 450p could arrive smartly.

As mentioned above Dragon Oil is in great form after the statement and if it can hold above 400p today that would bode very well for much bigger rises possibly quite quickly given there don't seem to be many profit takers as people hold onto their shares. In profit by many thousands of pounds for the site there.

Among my other oil stocks Tullow is nearly 100 points higher than when I bought just before Xmas. Wellstream continues its amazing ride and looks like it might break 1100.

Also going superbly are both Petrofac and Hunting. Petrofac up nearly 70p since the pre Xmas buy. And Wood too - that climbs fast.

Telecom Plus has quietly been rising well in the background and is a very solid performer now with a huge dividend to boot.

And how could I forget Dana now up more than 200 points since my first buy?

The Marks and Spencers short goes well. I now have to decide whether to take profits before the Wednesday statement! Tricky one!

There really are no stinkers either to worry about for the moment which is always a great feeling with pretty much everything into a decent profit.

However of course it's wise not to get smug about a good run and my short-term idea is to probably go back in with a FTSE short especially if it gets anywhere near 6600 and continue to look at shorting retailers. So basically my 2008 philosophy as it stands? Buy oil and oil services, sell retail and the FTSE when it reaches the 6600-6800 areas. I think there is a lot of potential for a big fall in the FTSE but I think oils will stay strong.

I can't make head or tail of the banking sector so generally I leave it alone. Well, here's to a happy new investing year. Money to be made from shorts I believe - especially FTSE stocks and also money to be made from the right stocks too even if the FTSE falls.



#13 riggerbeautz

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Posted 07 January 2008 - 04:38 PM

Spot on with the comment about NBPO, probably should have started a separate thread.

Shares up 11% today in falling markets, this is one IPO that institutions definately want.

Put your notes under this one No6
Never stop questioning - Einstein

When you blame others you give up your power to change - Douglas Noel Adams

Beware of MOOD HOOVERS they have a mission.

#14 No6

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Posted 07 January 2008 - 07:27 PM

Spot on with the comment about NBPO, probably should have started a separate thread.

Shares up 11% today in falling markets, this is one IPO that institutions definately want.

Put your notes under this one No6

Share price looks a moonshot though. Great one if you got in early or can trade the momentum during the day. So far there has only been one day since it came to the market that the price has fallen, which is good going in these markets. You have to think though that there will be some profit taking soon.

#15 No6

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Posted 07 January 2008 - 08:26 PM

NT updates his site Mon/Wed/Fri and provided I can remember I will post the market update here once it is up. Here is today's update and despite the general market falls he seems to be on the winners so far.

Markets


I keep pinching myself to check I'm not dreaming this dream start to 2008!

I've made massive money in the last couple of days thanks mainly to my oils. My longs keep going up and the shorts keep coming down (joke there somewhere).

Talking of shorts... first I topped up in the Rightmove (RMV) short - still looks like a silly valuation to me and gone in for another tenner at 454. Target 350 stop 490. Apart from buybacks there is little that should be holding this one up - its true value is nearer 350.

And as I signalled in the last update I shorted the FTSE for a fiver at 6,492. And I think I'll top up on a short whenever it gets into the 6400-6600 area. I just don't see much upside short-term but there's a massive potential downside given all the problems out there.

And just as I top up on longs I'm going to do the same with shorts and I topped up the Next short this time for 4 at 1,547. As I said previously I think it could easily drop to 1,3,00 which is my target price. Retailers like this are going to have a horrible new year.

And... yes I know....I said last time that would be my last Dragon Oil top up. Except that, well, I, er... damn it couldn't resist and bought yet more, another 2,000 this morning at 418.9p. I bought after it had already risen 20pts but I love the look of this breakout. One analyst reckons a ten year licence extension would make it worth a further 145p. On the site I'm now up more than 20,000 and I think this has a chance this year of beating the 34,000 profit I made on Burren!

With my long oils and short much else strategy the other thing to say is smallcaps is a dead market at the moment. While most have hit bottoms there is no sign of any actual rises so far. So in that respect I've exited Chime at 35.25 for a small loss of 125 . Great company but these smaller ones just ain't moving.

Difficult one but I also sold Fenner at 237.25 for a profit of 91. I bought as there was good volume coming in - nothing has really transpired and it's dropping. However I do have my beady eyes open for a re-entry point as I still feel big things and even a bid could be on the cards here this year.

Elsewhere Wow! is all I can say. Really my oil stocks have absolutely soared.

Dragon Oil and New Brit Palm Oil are vying for total stars. New Brit Palm Oil up now an amazing 140 pts since I bought just before Xmas! Just keeps rising every day as palm oil prices soar. Up an incredible 37 points today to follow the 30pt rise on friday! I must admit I thought I might reach my initial 500p target in something like July... not January!!

Petrofac continues to be a star too. And what a performance by Wellstream now over 1100p!! And to think I originally bought these at 350p!

Tullow Oil also risen very nicely indeed!

The Marks short is doing well - just got to decide whether to take the profits as it reached my target or to wait for Wednesday's statement - tricky!

Apparently the share I bought last week NCipher was tipped by a big tipsheet this weekend but it is not moving on the buys generated from the tip today. Looks like market maker Panmure has a few shares to sell but once the seller is gone they could rise sharply.

I must mention Telecom Plus, one of the few small caps rising in this market and not surprising really. In a recession TEP ought to do really well as it offers low cost telephony and energy. I got a nice fat dividend cheque for nearly 800 for 20,000 shares I own outside my ISAs.

PV Crystallox put out a good statement reckoning things are moving better than market expectations. Obviously a few profit takers out there but personally happy to stick with it!

Can this amazing start to the year continue for me? Well, who knows, I can but hope!

http://www.frequenttrader.info/p2.html



#16 DrBubb

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Posted 08 January 2008 - 01:46 AM

some good historical picks there!
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 riggerbeautz

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Posted 08 January 2008 - 12:54 PM

Apparently Bloomberg are hot on Palm Oil. Whatever, NBPO marches on. Got a stop loss set, but this share has been a winner for anyone so far, up 5% today, currently 459!
Never stop questioning - Einstein

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#18 No6

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Posted 09 January 2008 - 10:28 PM

Apparently Bloomberg are hot on Palm Oil. Whatever, NBPO marches on. Got a stop loss set, but this share has been a winner for anyone so far, up 5% today, currently 459!

NT may have found another one.

Markets

Well what a cracker that Marks and Spencers short turned out to be - but with the shares down nearly 30% since I shorted them and given the company isn't going to go bust I decided to take the profits this morning at 407p.

Which makes a nice profit on the short of 1,490. Of course it was a bit tempting to stay with it but as I said given 30% has been wiped off the price that's quite a big drop for a FTSE company.

I stuck with the short despite getting e-mails telling me how wrong I was!

And it just shows be careful of following analysts. Just days ago Goldman Sachs said M and S would be an Xmas winner and advised clients to buy and Panmure upgraded M and S to a "buy" last week too!

I always make up my own mind about these things and feel sorry for their clients that bought in ahead of results. Anyway for the moment I think it was wise for me to take the profits.

I cashed in my spreadbet long of Tullow yesterday at 661 to take a nice profit of 640. However I have kept open my longer-term "normal" buy. I sold as I thought the FTSE was going down and would take Tullow down a bit with it. Which it has. Think it will go back up and if it goes much lower will trade it again on the spreads.

Thank goodness for stop losses. Keller got stopped out at 580.45 for a loss of 235. Lesson? Doesn't matter how cheap a company looks if the sector is in trouble, get out. And also when bottom fishing get out quick if it goes the wrong way. Good news: I stuck by the stop.

Total profits banked for the site today: 1,895.

I've added another fiver to my FTSE short - this time at 6360. I have a hunch the FTSE is heading for 6000 in the next few weeks. So I remain a shorter of the main index.

Now onto a buy - and that's another buy in Palm Oil! As you know my main palm oil stock New Brit Palm Oil has been climbing rapidly and is now up nearly 200 points from where I bought it and is rising yet again today. So I was looking around for similar companies.

And I discovered another palm oil stock that is starting to soar - with thanks to poster "Smarm" who flagged it up on my advfn bulletin board.

This one is MPE - MP Evans and I've bought 1,000 shares at 414.888 and 20 on the spreads at 422.

This one too is following in New Brit Palm Oil's shoes and rising very rapidly. There are lots of reports of palm oil shortages especially in Malaysia and other countries too and the palm oil price continues to rise. I still think there is more of this story to come. And that's probably why this one is still shooting higher as I write this....Target 550 stop 385.

The Times is starting to feature Palm Oil shortage stories and if these spread both my investments in New Brit Palm Oil and MP Evans could really make it a good year for me!


Elsewhere I'm thrilled with the portfolio given the market falls.

The Next short goes brilliantly - up nearly 250 points fast!! - and it did reach my 1300 target this morning. However I decided to be greedy and stick with it for longer as I think a breach of 1300 could easily see another 100-200 points come off. No reason for a big rise for the moment. I think if it went much lower than 1100 it would be seen as a bid target so at that point I might flip from going short to long!

Good old Dragon Oil ignores market falls with another rise which means more big paper profits for me. Wellstream seems to close at higher highs every night, quite an amazing share.

As is BH Macro which is up yet again breaking the 1300 barrier for me today and going well. Telecom Plus is buying back a lot of shares at the moment pushing the price up - any move through 200 wil be significant.

The Rightmove short is moving down nicely for me today and of course the FTSE short goes well too.

All in all extremely pleased with this amazing start to the year where for now I've been shorting the right things and going long of the right things too.

But all these brilliant results for me does not mean I should not stay vigilant and be wary as the market is very good at kicking you in the nuts just when everything is going well.

Summary of my current trading approach? Buy oil, Palm oil and hold. Short retail and FTSE. Beware of small caps.



#19 No6

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 10:21 PM

NT still seems to be raking in the profits.

Today's update.

Markets

Goodness me what a couple of days it's been.. and whatever it's been it has not been boring!

A massive downmove over two days which partly has been extremely good news for me for my various shorts! The only real problem was whether to take profits and who knows whether I'm going to be right or wrong with these decisions but here's how I played it!

Summary is I took some very decent profits on some shorts which were really begging to be taken, taken one or two losses also begging to be taken, and held firm (needed some courage) on my strongest companies! Who knows whether this proves right or wrong, in these situations you generally have to try and be unemotional but also decisive - there is no point being Gordon Brown and dithering. However I guess another summary is I did a lot of messing about as it's a difficult time.

First of all my FTSE 100 shorts: I closed half the short today at 5970 for a nice profit of 1,950.. but I have kept the other short going - it seemed sensible to bank at least part. I was going to hang onto the whole lot when I got up this morning but the massive fall this morning was too tempting.

Rightmove short: It reached my target in one fell swoop this morning as it hit 350. I didn't manage to come out at 350 but I did get 369 which will do for very nice profits of 1,000, 850 and 590 for a total Rightmove short profit of 2,440. I shall be back shorting it again if it gets much over 400p.

Dragon Oil released a fine statement this morning but of course with terrified investors out there there was a good chance of a fall this morning even on a good-looking statement. So basically I sold a few then bought back. So first I top sliced a few at 413.5 - for website purposes that closes the last position at a 108 loss. I guess I could claim a big profit if I matched it with one of the lower down positions but prefer to take out the highest ones first. And then I sold a small amount on the spreads at 415 to close one of the web spreadbet positions for a profit of 1,140.

I decided to hold my nerve and ride my main holdings and spreadbets till the selling climaxed, missed the 386 on offer but then bought a further 1,000 shares at 391.88p. I suspect it'll consolidate around 400p and we'll see buyers again soon pushing it higher before the statement due in March. Of course market turbulence will have an effect but this still should be the year of the Dragon! And you can't really blame some people for taking profits can you? From now on I hope this will just be a great longer-term hold without much more selling or buying needing to be done.

I closed Dana Petroleum yesterday at 1350.2 - profits there 309 and spread bet at 1356 for profits of 955. Total Dana profit 1,264.

I don't know what it is with me and Wood, I just can't get this one right.. I closed it at 383 for a loss of 60.

Peter Hambro looked very good at one stage but I missed getting out at a very good profit early on but closed the fiver at 1483 yesterday for a profit of 465.

I closed the other half of the Next short today at 1303, my target - for a profit of 1,415. Shame I took profits too early the other day on the other half of it but never mind. Ended up being a lovely short anyway with hige profits combined for the two shorts this week.

I wish I'd sold the Tullow shares at the same time as taking profits in the Tullow spread the other day as I'd have ended up in good profit. Instead eye was off the ball on this one and closed at 568.36 for loss of 265.

And finally (phew!) taken me bleeding ages to write this! A new short this time in Whitbread (WTB) for a fiver at 1133. Target 950 stop 1190. This company is exposed to a lot of the possible consumer slowdown so could be a nice tanker.

Total profits taken for the site today.. 5,805 profit from shorts and 2,901 profit from longs making a total profit taken today of 8,706. Lovely!

Elsewhere what can I say about the brilliant BHMG - Brit Macro - my two positions now showing tremendous profits and it's up an amazing 43 points today as it pushes over 1400! Makes my buy at just over 1000 and the top up recently at 1250 seem pretty decent. Looks like there is more to come. To have anything actually higher today is pretty good going.

The rest of the holds are down of course today - it's a hard decision but we're at quite a pivotal point in proceedings and I'm going to carry on with my core holdings for now - however all bets are off if the market continues the slide this week and I'd have to consider exiting. Only time will tell..

However it probably is a time for action rather than tea and toast - one of the few days I really have to work -!

As usual I will just take my cue from the market - continue shorting if it carries on falling and exit some positions or try and buy back if it goes up. Of course I'll miss points along the way but prefer to try and follow the market rather than second guess what it is going to do.



#20 No6

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Posted 21 January 2008 - 08:22 PM

NT seems to have played this market well. One advantage of being able to monitor the market all day is that you can re-act to it, but if you have a day job even going short as NT seems to be is a dangerous game because if the market turns and shoots through any stop, especially when spread betting, you may very quickly end up getting that margin call from the broker.

Markets

Well, as I write it's a bit of a black Monday, happening on the gloomiest day of the year. Now you know why I keep banging on about stop losses. The real question is will it stop here or is there worse to come?

The point is, it doesn't matter whether you are in a good company or bad, they will all come down and there ain't nothing you can do about it and it's better to stand aside which is what I've done in the main.

No-one is ever forced to trade and trying to pick the bottom of shares is just too much of a dangerous game. Why try and bottom pick when chances are there could be worse to come?

Well, thank goodness I took all those profits in the last week or so - I banked nearly 20,000 of profit, lucky for me and went into mainly cash in both isas and on spreadbets.

Which means despite today's falls I still made the best start ever to any year.

What's proved the most invaluable thing to be in the last 6 months is shorting the FTSE and I've been sort of in a short for most of the time reaping some very big rewards.

There is some good news out of all this turmoil though especially I think for new investors thinking of coming into the market because at some time this year sentiment will change and there will be a lot of money to be made.


And if the market falls further newer investors coming in could be buying shares at fantastic prices!

Anyway what have I been up to? I've continued to be quite ruthless and cut back on everything, either by cutting or coming out altogether. I've made a lot of money recently... why risk giving some of it back?

So I continue to sit on a pile of cash and massive leverage in my spread accounts waiting for the turn, whenever it comes. In the meantime I will try and take advantage of the downturn with the odd short or two.

So latest action from me is: I've been adding new FTSE shorts as the market tumbles. On Friday for a fiver at 5986 and another fiver at 5970. Which makes me short by 15 now.

The original FTSE short is now up nearly 5,000! Again I have no idea of targets etc as I just don't know and will play them by ear probably using one or two of them as profit takers if the market recovers. However I think I would stay with the basic fiver short for some time as I can't see recovery above 6000 for a while unless President Bush comes up with something spectacular.

I've also gone back into a Rightmove (RMV) short - going in again for 10 at 380. Target 330 stop 410. And I have opened up a new short this time in Shire (SHP) for a fiver at 1067. Target 950 stop 1120 . And also I'm back shorting old favourite Next at 1365 for a fiver. Target 1250 stop 1400.

I suspect I'd clear out of some of those if there was a big bounce.. at the moment not totally sure!

Now onto some cutbacks and cutting losers etc.

Marchpole's joy on Friday didn't follow through in the afternoon or early this morning so I cut the 10,000 shares (just a gamble) at 38 for a profit of 100.

I had intended to be a buyer of Dragon in the 350s but ended up selling a few more at 355.5 this morning as sellers came in. No use trying to battle a tide. For web purposes I could claim quite large profits on most positions but I'll close the losing one for 127 and the last spreadbet at 358 for a profit of 285. It's going to be an absolutely cracking top up when the time is right. Unless there is armageddon in the markets I would expect to hold onto the other positions bought at way lower prices. Looks like a lot of the oils are beginning to look very cheap but again it's a question of marrying that with sentiment and of course the price of oil.

I also cut the stop losser HTG position at 653 for a loss of 291. So, loss for the site today of 33. (Happy with that considering!)

Big star ratings to shares I own that have amazingly stayed level during the meleee.. so well done Telecom Plus where I've nearly doubled and good old BH Macro which continues to go up and nearly 300 points profit now. I'm just about hanging onto the palmies Anglo and MP, close decision at the moment. Nbpo hasn't tanked totally though glad I halved my position last week. Could be a nice buy again soon as a top up. and a 6p dividend is coming my way which is worth at least 200.

Of course when a market tanks by so much there is usually some kind of rally afterwards and it's important I think for me not to get sucked into any rally for the time being by buying too much. There is so much fear about that any big rally could simply see more selling coming in eventually.

And of course with the market moving so fast anything I try and say will probably look silly by the next update!

Good luck to any of you still battling in there - for right now I have few positions open and those that are have been cut back. It seems the sensible thing to do. One thing is for sure, I feel a hell of a lot more relaxed! After all medium term investing is a long term game and there is no need to always hold a lot of shares.

http://www.frequenttrader.info/p2.html






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