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Apple Inc (AAPL) : Is it a great short now?


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#41 DrBubb

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 01:08 PM

POINTS OF VIEW
----------

AAPL Apple: The Law Of Large Numbers And Declining Margins Point Towards Average Stock Returns by Tim Travis
AAPL Apple: Why The Recent Drop Is Unjustified by Mathias Holmstrøm
AAPL The Variance Between Apple's Intrinsic Value And Analyst Estimates by Derek Chipman
AAPL Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too by David Weinstein

While many market participants look at Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) growth rate and price to earnings ratios, and believe the company is incredibly cheap, I tend to believe it is closer to fairly valued. I believe the uniqueness of the company's products is fading, as it tends to happen in the consumer technology industry. While I believe it is safe to assume that net income will be greater next year than this year, I'm less sure the further we look out into the future. While I may prove to be misguided, if I were a betting man, I'd bet that adjusted for inflation net income will be less ten years from now than it is now. This is no sure thing, but the same momentum and innovation that caused the company to meteorically rise, can work against it as once fat margins, decline over time. Competitors are already engaging in practices that ultimately shift the value proposition from the original equipment manufacturer (OEM), to the consumer, via selling products below cost. If you look at this history in once-hot sectors such as flat screen TV's, PC's, and normal handsets, the gravitational impact on commoditized products profit margins can be clearly observed. The law of large numbers dictates that the growth rate must slow, so to expect anything like the recent past in terms of stock price appreciation, is overly optimistic.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#42 Van

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 02:36 PM

I think they're fairly valued too. They are exactly like MSFT 15 years ago.
A fine company that has redefined portable consumer technology, but the nature of competition means that it will be impossible to maintain such dominance going forward.

Consumer tastes can turn on a dime. Remember when the crackberry was the must have gadget?

#43 Van

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 07:45 PM

Mighty AAPL is on its knees - chartwise at least - and looking like it will lead the entire market into a new phase decline phase.
http://bigcharts.mar...=&show=&x=0&y=0

505.85
-1.39%


Weinstein's bull market/bear market indicators say that if the market's leading stock does not make new highs after 4 months, consider the trend to have changed.

#44 DrBubb

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 01:13 AM

It could come roaring back in the New Year, when all the heavy tax-selling is done.'

But no promises for that
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#45 Van

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 02:57 PM

New lows for AAPL, even as the markets flirt with new highs:

503.7508
-3.18%

http://bigcharts.mar...pe=&freq=&show=

#46 callmejoe

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 11:37 PM

Have you not seen this?
http://www.zerohedge...demand-collapse

AAPL stock is currently trading at or just under the $500 "generational bottom" in the premarket session, or nearly a one year low, following news first from Japan's Nikkei that Apple has slashed orders for iPhone 5 components, and then from the WSJ, that demand for the flagship phone was far less than expected, resulting in a cut in orders in the supply chain. Per the WSJ: "Apple's orders for iPhone 5 screens for the January-March quarter, for example, have dropped to roughly half of what the company had previously planned to order, the people said. The Cupertino, Calif., company has also cut orders for components other than screens, according to one of the people. Apple notified the suppliers of the order cut last month, the people said."


Well, whaddya know, the lemmings are not rushing out to replace their iPhones whenever AAPL pulls another model out of the hat. They must be starving and/or living in cardboard city to not replace their current iPhones. Perhaps they'll have to resort to selling their bodies to get the iPhone 5.

#47 TrueNorth

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 09:56 AM

wow, down 3.57%.

#48 Van

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 11:45 AM

I feel that 500 is psychologically important. If that goes, there is a massive GAP from Jan 2012 at 440 that needs filling.

#49 Van

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 12:55 PM

As the ultimate pro-PC/anti-Apple person I have ever known, even I have just caved in and bought an IPad - a sure sign of a contrarian top!

But in all seriousness, what do they have in the product pipeline? New versions of the iphone/ipad are just preaching to the choir, and ultimately competitors will eat into their market share and erode their margins.

For now though, the uptrend is intact, leading the overall (US) bull market.


I claim my prize!

The iPad is superb, btw. ^_^

#50 TrueNorth

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 01:03 PM

Your new Asus is in the post. ;)

#51 callmejoe

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 01:10 AM

Guy, guys (and gals), that news about falling demand for iPhones might be more manipulation again.
Remember that story I posted on how they put fake news in Murdoch's Times which affacted the oil prices?
They may be doing this with AAPL now.
Here's something about demand still being robust:
http://iphone.applei...ier_shifts.html

Goodness sake!
You have to be mad to put money in the stock market.
You may be no different to these sheep
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2FX9rviEhw

#52 Van

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 10:31 AM

Due a BIG gap down when trading opens.

May be a good time to get long.

http://www.macobserv...ading-heres-why

#53 Van

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 05:34 PM

The laws of economics and competition make the case for $50 AAPL:

http://www.econmatte...ck-by-2016.html

#54 callmejoe

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 06:59 PM

http://www.businessi...-pricing-2013-1
PAYBACK TIME: Carriers And Suppliers Get Ready To Stick It To Apple On iPhone Pricing

#55 DrBubb

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Posted 01 February 2013 - 10:06 AM

An attack from the rear?

Blackberry may be back... from the Dead:

http://www.bloomberg...7ff0H0PD_g.html
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#56 bob monkhouse

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:43 PM

i wonder if apple is a canary for the bull run...
We were not born with saddles on our backs, nor were the gentry born with spurs.

Self confessed financial calamity.

#57 DrBubb

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 04:55 AM

i wonder if apple is a canary for the bull run...


Interesting thought, Bob.
Complacency won't last forever - since reality has a way of intruding
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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