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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 21 June 2007 - 05:27 PM

GEI's CHART LINKS -- ) OIL threads etc. /  : GOldStock : LQDgocharts : News : Tony-C
=====================

Top of Page Charts: Gold / USD / china gold // Russell / Copper / PreMkt

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605 : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif

idx24_hui_en_2.gift24_ag_en_usoz_2.gifAgTD0.png?id=11409221912 : spot-copper-1y.gif

idx24_russell_en_2.gif idx24_usd_en_2.gifintraday.gif?s=NYMEX_CL.M15.E&t=f&v=sz&a

 

>6mos : GLD : GDX : HUI : SLV : DXY : Eur / SPY : RUT : IWM : VIX : Futs

>2 -yrs : GLD : GDX : HUI : SLV : DXY : Eur / SPY : RUT : IWM : VIX : spy/v

>Bells- : HK12: HSI / Bdev: UKX / Phm: IYR / ALI- : PSE : Spali : s100 : 

>Bs LT: HK12: HSI / Bdev: UKX / Phm: IYR / ALI- : PSE : Spali : s100 : CCLI

>Fx LT: EUR : AUD : Cad : Gbp : Chf : Dxy / Sgd : Myr : PHP : THB / PEG

>Hk St : HSI : prices

 

China/SGE: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?)

10/08-10am: Rmb3,846 /6.140 = $ 626.4 / 35.274 = $17.76 (prem. 57 cents)

10/13-9.am : Rmb3,884 /6.136 = $ 633.0 / 35.274 = $17.94 -$17.39= prm-$0.55

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- JFK

HK: 2899 : 1051 : hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : YL : CVN : CC2 :  BTC : SLV-lv

==============================================

 

GLD / Gold etf : 3 mos  / 12 mos: GLD : GBS : HUI : GDX / 10d : SLV : GLD : VIX : SPY : vvt :

GLD-12mo_zpscqvgytet.gif

 

Futures changes : http://finviz.com/futures.ashx / Charts : FRT : Bells LQD/tlt

SPX - Last 20 Years : all data : all-log : 5-years // http://www.Livecharts.co.uk

b0cu.gif

 

HK : HSI : 12 : 14 : 16 : 2823 : 2840

FX : DXY : fxa : fxb : fxc : fxe : fxf

Stocks : SPY : IWM : XLF : NDX : TonyC / UKX : Russ

 

Regional Stock Indicies (dynamic) : tiny-ADV... ASIA : EUR : NoAm : SoAm

Futures, Globally : http://www.forexpros...indices-futures
Charts/ Intraday : http://www.wallstreetbear.com/

(image)
Search, on Google for : Favorite Charts

I plan to start a section on Technical Analysis, or maybe do a podcast.
Please post your questions here, so I know what types of issues to cover
= = =

CHARTS Pages / Live and Dynamic

Gold in the 1970's.. : http://caldaroew.spa...#33;60062.entry

FXFX charts........... : 
Bellwether Builders : 
GEI's BB thread..... : http://www.greenener...?showtopic=2097
Global Prop. stocks : http://www.webspawne...prop/index.html
GURUS:
GEI Guru. no1....... : http://www.webspawne...uru1/index.html

Builder Bellwether vs. Nationwide & Halifax Indices Chart
housebuildersgw8.png

See also................ : http://www.housepric...builders_index/

ChR-us... : http://www.chartsrus.com/#PRECIOUS

Long Term 20 Year charts for Commodities
=========
Gold....... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?gc.m
Silver..... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?si.m
Platinum. : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?pl.m
Copper... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?hg.m
Crude Oil : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?cl.m
Unleaded : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?hu.m
NatGas... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?ng.m

A NEW COUNT ? ... Dynamic BELLs : BELZ
003lw.jpg


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 23 June 2007 - 09:37 AM

PODCAST LINKS:

 

KMO's C-realm podcast ---- ::

Lorenzo / Pschedelic Salon :: https://archive.org/...edelicSalon-all

Gnostic Media / Jan --------- :: http://www.gnosticme...gnosticpodcast/

FORUMS : Post-Flv. :  http://postflaviana....unity/index.php

Dan Carlin History--- : http://www.dancarlin.com/hh-55/

Ben Franklin History : http://www.benfrankl...tegory/podcast/

 

As Brian Pretti said about the dollar:
"THe rollover in imports is a warning" (not good news, slower economy coming)

This chart is lifted from the FXFX page

It shows the Trade-weighted Dollar (DX / USD).
It suggests the dollar rally might be over, since it hit the top of the channel and pulled back.

A weaker dollar, if we see it, may be good for gold

============

10 Stocks
symbol: YrEnd : 4/27--- : shs- : C$Value :
IMA- : $ 0.235 : $ 0.220 : 210k : $ 46.2K :
WM- : $ 0.045 : $ 0.050 : 837k : $ 46.0K :
AWV*: $ 0.027 : $ 0.045 : 600k : $ 27.0K :
EDV- : $ 0.425 : $ 0.620 : 028k : $ 17.4K :
LOT- : $ 0.060 : $ 0.070 : 150k : $ 10.5K :
NCF- : $ 0.210 : $ 0.170 : 060k : $ 10.2K :
VIT - : $ 0.110 : $ 0.140 : 060k : $ 8.40K :
AXY- : $ 0.325 : $ 0.375 : 020k : $ 7.50K :
SAS- : $ 0.250 : $ 0.285 : 025k : $ 7.13K :
MOX-: $ 0.210 : $ 0.215 : 025k : $ 5.38K :
LAM- : $ 0.365 : $ 0.315 : 016k : $ 5.04K :
GPM-: $ 0.075 : $ 0.100 : 050k : $ 5.00K :
FCO- : $ 0.095 : $ 0.180 : 020k : $ 3.60K :

ZC - - : $0.000 : $ 0.000 : 100K :

====

$199.4k

= =

Do we need more charts pages like this?


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 TTID

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Posted 24 June 2007 - 07:22 AM

Do we need more charts pages like this?


Yes, please.

It's particularly helpful when you look at the same item from more than one angle, to get confirmation of the analysis.

For instance, you often observe volume in relation to price, or mention relevant areas of support or resistance, like moving averages or Bollinger Bands.

This prompts curiosity and inspires deeper enquiry into the background of these indicators and how they can be applied to other stocks, funds, indicators, etc.

Thanks for your efforts.
TTID
(This time, it's different)


Nothing that I write constitutes advice.


Except when I'm advising you where to get off.

#4 AceofKY

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Posted 24 June 2007 - 11:01 AM

1. For the fundamentals investor, what TA should be looked at to avoid buying at a bad time?

2. For the fundamentals investor who feels that his equity has now risen so much that it is substantially overvalued, what TA would indicate a "top" or good place to sell?

#5 DrBubb

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Posted 24 June 2007 - 08:42 PM

1. For the fundamentals investor, what TA should be looked at to avoid buying at a bad time?


good question - and here's an answer:
if a stock is making new highs on lighter volume, it is time to be very cautious.
if you look deeper, and see "a five wave structure", it may be time to exit. (shall I define that- show a picture?)

2. For the fundamentals investor who feels that his equity has now risen so much that it is substantially overvalued, what TA would indicate a "top" or good place to sell?


as above.
btw, if a stock keeps rising on high volume, you may want to stay om for the ride, even if overvalued
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 AceofKY

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Posted 24 June 2007 - 11:49 PM

if a stock is making new highs on lighter volume, it is time to be very cautious.
if you look deeper, and see "a five wave structure", it may be time to exit. (shall I define that- show a picture?)


Typically I make my purchases when the stock is falling in a correction. I will assume that the same thing applies when a stock is falling: look for volume to start drying up.

Please show the five wave structure.

#7 Financial Planner

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Posted 25 June 2007 - 07:45 AM

I plan to start a section on Technical Analysis, or maybe do a podcast.

Please post your questions here, so I know what types of issues to cover

HPs:

Some say that the US crash will then revert to a doubling of the previous high (namely Tom O). I believe this is because the US will allow inflation to run rampant.

However, in ECB land and MPC land we have a stated target for inflation. What do you think will happen here after the crash?
"No legislator has repealed the Law of Supply and Demand" - Jim Rogers
Armstrong Davis Ltd

#8 Cuthbert Calculus

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Posted 25 June 2007 - 08:24 AM

However, in ECB land and MPC land we have a stated target for inflation. What do you think will happen here after the crash?


A crash is not a given, but one thing I expect to happen is that means of calculating inflation will be re-jigged so as to hide the inflation. The excuse given will be that the current method is inaccurate. This has happened before and will happen again.

#9 DrBubb

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Posted 29 June 2007 - 09:33 AM

(the first post is from HPC, and I thought I would post the response here on GEI also):

QUOTE(Jonnybegood @ Jun 29 2007)
Firstly I love the way that Bears will use the statistic and data when its good for them but totally ignore or dismiss it when it still shows HPI, I don't think many can argue with the LR data and If/When it shows negative the Bears will be first to back their claim.
Live by the Sword you die by the sword.
= = =

Okay. That's a fair point.
I have been waiting for someone to say,
"Okay, Bubb, since your indicator shot up back in November 2005, why didnt you come out and warn us about possible HPI rises?"

That would be a very fair question. So I will answer it:

+ At first, I didnt believe the jump in the BB would be sustained,

+ By early Jan. 2006, I had to accept that the BB was holding gains, so I changed my tune from:
"Expect a crash cruise speed slide" to "We are two turns of the credit screw from a crash"::
Perhaps that change was too subtle for some, but I stopped defending the immediate slide argument,

+ I did not start warning about a house price jump, because I felt (and still feel) the market is very
overvalued, and buying at these prices is too risky. I did not want to contribute to the pressures
which result in people overpaying

The risks were high in 2006, and they are even higher now with the BB index pointed down.
The property bulls had better hope that bellwether reverses upwards soon
= =

See "Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics" thread:
http://www.housepric...showtopic=50136
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 bob monkhouse

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Posted 12 July 2007 - 07:33 PM

whats the difference between simple, exponential and weighted moving averages? Do any of you have a preference between MA's and bollinger bands?
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#11 beerhunter

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Posted 12 July 2007 - 09:04 PM

Only just spotted this thread.

A couple of questions;

1) All TA I've seem is based on combinations of open/high/low/close or volume... is it possible to do TA on other measures? And how successful are they?

2) Shouldn't SA include seasonality factors? For example when dividens are payable, or companies providing seasonal products/services?

3) How should you choose your indicators? Personally I'm using;

- BB (to indicate possible movements.. but not the direction)
- MA (to show where the current price relative to the past / trends)
- Vol

along with a combination of line drawing for trends/support/resistance.

Also as a learning exercise, I've just started trying out one new indicator each month (currently stochastic oscillator), to get a feeling about how reacts, and whether its a benefit.

#12 DrBubb

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Posted 15 July 2007 - 09:27 PM

whats the difference between simple, exponential and weighted moving averages?
Do any of you have a preference between MA's and bollinger bands?


Simple: weight every day the same
Exponential: give higher weighting to most recent
Weighted: depends on weighting system used?

WHICH MA's do I Use?

My favorite daily MA"s are: 21d, 76d, and 252d (d=days)

Why?
21d = a fibonacci number; and the average number of trading days in a month
76d = sits between 55d and 89d (both fibos), and seems to work well (for some reason)
252d = 1 year; the usual number of trdaing days in a year (250d would work the same way)

I prefer these to the standard ones of: 20d, 50d, 200d, etc.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 DrBubb

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Posted 15 July 2007 - 09:29 PM

A couple of questions;

1) All TA I've seem is based on combinations of open/high/low/close or volume... is it possible to do TA on other measures? And how successful are they?


Sorry. Like what measures?

2) Shouldn't SA include seasonality factors?
For example when dividends are payable, or companies providing seasonal products/services?


Yes. If you can get good data, it is worthwhile to use it.
But it is only an indication of an influence. Seasonals do not work every year.

3) How should you choose your indicators? Personally I'm using;
- BB (to indicate possible movements.. but not the direction)
- MA (to show where the current price relative to the past / trends)
- Vol
along with a combination of line drawing for trends/support/resistance.

Also as a learning exercise, I've just started trying out one new indicator each month (currently stochastic oscillator), to get a feeling about how reacts, and whether its a benefit.


Sounds like a good start.
I suggest working hard to keep Volume on your list of tools.
Listrening to Tom Obrien might help you understand how he uses it
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#14 DrBubb

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Posted 15 July 2007 - 09:42 PM

New LINK: Gold shares (HUI)-to- Gold Ratio: (updated May 2015 )

GLD-toGDX-Log_zpstqvqzcxa.png

I think this chart gives some good indications of breakouts and turning points:

(see updated GLD chart, below)

INTERPRETATION: written in July 2007
...it certainly looks like Gold shares are set for an important breakout. / (note: they were !)
(Look at the SLO stochastics at the bottom, it hit 80, where we have seen breaks previously.
Out of three prior times, it failed only once- 1 year ago, and this try looks better than that one. )
And Gold Stock/HUI normally lead Gold, dragging it higher.

Looks like the Slingshot action is happening early, during the summer this time!
(as I suggested on several CW Radio podcasts)

====

 

GLD / Gold etf ... All data (100,480 wk) : updated May 2015 / HUI : GDX : GDXJ : SLV : SIL 

GLD-all_zpssevxa8ob.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 beerhunter

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Posted 16 July 2007 - 09:54 PM

Sorry. Like what measures?


To give possibly the most interesting case (from a technical point of view) I've heard about;

I read somewhere (sorry don't have a link) that some traders use news feed analysis (this was several years ago, and may have been experimental at the time). I can see an equivalence to classical TA;

- at the simplest level, producing a moving average of the number of times a company/symbol appears each day possibly gives a indicator similar to BB (if the number of reports goes up above the average, the more likely that the price will change).

- at the more complex level, using something like Link Grammar it's possible to automatically work out syntactic information from a news feed, and whether the article is bear/bullish with respect to companies/symbols, indicating a possible direction.

I'm sure there are other influences...

- what are the best days to trade on... given the average trader and average week, would it be reasonable to say, monday is slow, work is done tue-thu, out thursday for a few drinks, friday is slow if your doing ok, or fast if you need to catch up?

- do sunny days push the markets up more than the norm... and rainy days fall more then the norm?

I'm wondering about these, based on the proverb "Sell in May and walk away"...

Yes. If you can get good data, it is worthwhile to use it.
But it is only an indication of an influence. Seasonals do not work every year.


True, I'm sure they don't work every year... and that the seasonal influence is only part of the force. But correct me if I'm wrong indications are what we work on to make a discussion to invest or not? So working with seasonals rather than against should (over a number of years) give an advantage.. possibly small, but still an advantage.

Sounds like a good start.
I suggest working hard to keep Volume on your list of tools.
Listrening to Tom Obrien might help you understand how he uses it


I've listened to a couple of Tom Obriens podcasts... very interesting, but with the language and unknown symbols, it runs a bit fast for me.. but I'm going to perisphere because I'm sure it gets easier.

Just one thought, it would be really nice (in terms of understanding) to hear a podcast and have the images of the charts appear in sync in the audio... perhaps CW could investigate and use it to their advantage? I'm happy to give a helping hand if I can.

#16 DrBubb

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Posted 17 July 2007 - 08:22 AM

I read somewhere (sorry don't have a link) that some traders use news feed analysis (this was several years ago, and may have been experimental at the time). I can see an equivalence to classical TA;

= =
I've listened to a couple of Tom Obriens podcasts... very interesting, but with the language and unknown symbols, it runs a bit fast for me.. but I'm going to perisphere because I'm sure it gets easier.


I used to keep track of the phrase "Debt Bubble" (when I owned the domain debtBubble.com to see how many hits it got on Google.
For a few months, I saw an inverse correlation with stock indices, then it went away.

Here's an excerpt from that old website:
"What if house prices stop rising? Or what if they start falling?
Parabolic price rises, such as we have seen in the housing market in America (and in the UK as well), have a way of reversing themselves, if they are not strongly supported by fundamentals. The only fundamental reason for this rise is cheaper borrowing costs. The other factors which might support it: such as rapidly rising incomes, or rising rental values are just not there. This is easily- borrowed money chasing asset appreciation, not income. Indeed, in many parts of the US and the UK, rentals are now falling. Clearly, this debt-fuel housing speculation is not a sustainable situation.

Some feel it will go on until interest rates rise. They say, if rates stay low, there's nothing to worry about. But this thinking is wrong. Long term rates have begun to rise, but a rapid rise in rates is notb the only way to stop the upward spiral. There's another danger, that of a tightening of credit availability. And it grows more likely every day.

This is how I believe the bubble will burst:
Banks and securities buyers will stop providing debt on the same easy terms as before. A tightening of credit availability, will slow the housing market, and turn it down. Once it becomes apparent that credit is tighter and house prices are falling, the current virtuous cycle, pushing house prices higher and higher, will reverse and go into a vicious cycle. Houses prices will fall, and put loans in jeopardy. The lenders will react by lending less, and on less attractive terms. This will dry up demand for housing. The timing of this turn in housing may be soon. Indeed, it may be happening now, right in front of our eyes."

@: http://basic1.easily...bbeditorial.htm


= =

If you keep listening to Tom Obrien, on: www.TFNN.com, I am sure it will all be clearer after a while
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 DrBubb

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Posted 17 July 2007 - 07:57 PM

Long Term : 20 Year charts for Commodities
============
Gold....... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?gc.m
Platinum. : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?pl.m
Copper... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?hg.m
Crude Oil : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?cl.m
Unleaded : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?hu.m
NatGas... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?ng.m

 

Example: (updated May 2015)

Gold_zpszszztsyb.png


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#18 DrBubb

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Posted 22 November 2009 - 01:50 PM

LONG TERM: bear market rally

After the bull market ended in Oct 2007 the stock market declined for the next seventeen months, until Mar 2009. The total market loss for the SPX was 58% and the DOW 54%. As of monday/wednesday, when the SPX/DOW were making new recovery highs, the SPX had retraced 49% of that the decline, and the DOW 51%. We projected the potential for this type of bear market rally in early March when the SPX was trading in the low 700's.

Long Term Dow ... orig, chart : chart.B

dow1929log2.gif?w=300

/source: http://caldaroew.spa...#33;61248.entry

Above we have posted a chart of the DOW from 1929 to present. We plotted it on a log2 scale so that each box represents either a doubling or a 50% loss depending upon the trend. Notice during this time period there have only been four instances when the DOW has lost about 50% or more of market value: 1929-32, 1937-42, 1973-74 and 2007-09. In OEW terms these types of events are generally considered cycle waves. The exception, of course, is the 1929 cycle wave [5] top and the 2007 cycle wave [5] top. When the fifth cycle wave completes a Supercycle bull market, a supercycle bear market follows.

 

Next observe Cycle waves [1] through [4]. Notice that cycle wave [2] formed a double bottom (flat) and cycle wave [4] only a single bottom (zigzag). This is the rule of alternation: corrective waves of similar degree should alternate in wave structure. Throughout the entire 1932-2007 Supercycle bull market the rule of alternation applied. From the cycles waves labeled on the chart, to the Primary waves, Major waves, Intermediate waves and all waves of a lesser degree, not shown. When we take this rule of alternation one degree higher, from cycle wave to supercycle wave, it should also apply. Therefore it would make sense that the current supercycle bear market should form a double bottom (flat) to alternate with the single bottom (zigzag) of 1929-32.

Next observe after each 50% market value decline there was always, at least, a 50% retracement rally. The 1973-74 cycle wave [4] zigzag bottom naturally never revisted the lows again. The 1937-42 cycle wave [2] retraced 64% of the initial decline before turning over and heading back to the lows. During the 1929-32 supercycle bear market, the stock market lost 50% of its value in 1929, retraced 53% of that decline into 1930, before turning over to make substantial lower lows. Notice all three previous events had different outcomes. Yet, each experienced approximately a 50% total market loss, and then a 50% or more retracement rally. This is the exact reason why we projected a 50% retracement rally from the Mar 2009 SPX 667 low. History does repeat itself, but not in the exact same way.

If we next examine the time factor for each of these cycle type waves. We find that the two zigzags, (single bottoms), took between 23 months (1973-74) and 34 months (1929-32). While the 1937-42 flat, (double bottom), took 61 months. This is quite long compared to the other two cycle type waves. Naturally, since the flat wave structure is a double bottom, it takes longer to unfold than a single bottom zigzag. But something else occurred during cycle wave [2] that did not occur during the other two cycle type waves: the start of World War II. When we examine the 1937-1942 time period we find Germany invaded Poland in 1939. Then in 1940 Germany invaded France, and the Axis of Powers was formed between Germany, Italy and Japan. In 1941 Japan attacked Pearl Harbor which resulted in the USA entering the world war in 1942, the year cycle wave [2] ended. It is likely that the uncertainty of world war II extended this cycle wave. If this assumption is correct, then the current Supercycle wave should last about three years, and not five. In summary, we can conclude that the current Supercycle bear market should take the form of a flat, double bottom. The 58% total market loss was Wave A of this flat and it bottomed in Mar 2009 at SPX 667. The current 49% bear market retracement rally is wave B. Then upon conclusion of wave B, the final leg down to complete the C wave flat should bottom in 2010 with a retest of SPX 667. The year 2010 also coincides with the 4 year cycle low.

- Tony C.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 DrBubb

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Posted 11 August 2010 - 09:54 AM

IF THEY BREAK SPAIN... they may break them all !

In the past, Spain's IBEX was usually the last stock index to break down, and then signaled a big slide was underway.

Spain's IBEX-30 ... update : two-yrs :  Intraday

(update to May 2015)

IBEX_zpsn00ewplv.gif

 

(in 2010, I wrote):
A break of IBEX-10,000-10,200, followed by a break of 8,800 or so, would be a Big Deal.

(In edit):

Yes! IBEX fell to 6,000


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#20 DrBubb

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Posted 12 August 2010 - 02:30 AM

QUOTE (Diet Cola Addict @ Aug 12 2010, 10:05 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Here is a recreation, from my own datasets, of the most convincing gold graph I have seen. I think the original was a post from Steve Netwriter a couple of years ago, and it impressed me so much I have wanted to rework the data.

It shows the monthly change in gold price against real interest rate (Fed rate - US CPI), geometrically averaged since 1970. The moral of the story is that:

+ Gold is the place to run when real interest rates are negative, offering a positive return.
+ This bull market may well end only when real interest rates are above +3% (+1 % for a cautious outlook)
+ The error bars (one standard error) show how good a bull market this is - that increase for negative rates is most likely statistically significant p< 0.05 over 40 years.


realgain.png

Very Good chart !
A copy of this will go into the Favorite CHARTS thread, see Link below the Header


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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