"Locationality": HK Property RATIOS : Various Estates / CL-Index

[drbubb]

Hong Kong's "To-CL INDEX" RATIOS : A "Locational Measure"

==

Hong Kong's Property Index ; Making Sense of its movements, using trendlines

 

: update

 

I posted back in Feb. 2011:
"+ I try to analyze property markets within an 18 year cycle, which I have described elsewhere on this thread, and also on YouTube. It basically consists of 14 years up, and 4 years down - though these time frames can "morph" somewhat depend on the general economy and longer cycles.

+ I think HK is on its way into a Long Cycle top, which I am expecting in the 2015-17 time frame.
You will note that: 1997 (most recent peak) plus 18 years is 2015 and 2003 (most recent low) plus 14 years is 2017. From these two calculations come my expected peak.

+ Between now and 2015-17, theres is time for a decent correction, before a final "blowoff rally" into a peak around the time the Macau bridge may be finished, and when new MTR lines may be completed. These works may be give rise to excessive confidence and a final Long Cycle peak. (I am just guessing on this, but I would be monitoring how these projects effect confidence.

+ The "correction" that I am expecting might come from a jump in interest rates, as bond holders and others react to rising inflation, and force Central banks to lift interest rates. I think you will agree that a rise in HK mortgage rates to 2.5 - 3.0% (from present 1%) might bring at least a 10-15% correction in HK property prices. And it could be more than that, if rates go higher"

No reason to change any of that.
But we could see a premature peak, caused by those "cooling measures"

==

> see- post#4 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=13789&page=1

 

/ BTW: people from AX who may want to post here, can get a Free password by:

Sending a Personal Message to OTP on AX /

MONITORING Specific LOCATIONS/projects : and comparing them to the INDEX, using Ratios

Location-: 5/25/14: Ratio- : End.'13: Ratio-- / End.'12: Ratio-- / End.'11: Ratio-- / Aver.
========

Index----- : 119.07 : ====== / 119.07 : ======/ 115.78 : ======/ $96.68 : ======/ '11-13 :
ParkAveO : 11,594 : 97.37x : 12,325 : 103.5x / 11,161 : 96.40x / 10,147 : 105.0x / 101.7x : stable ?
TaikooShg : 11,149 : 93.63x : 10,936 : 91.85x / 11,665 : 100.8x / $9,877 : 102.2x / 98.28x
RobinPlac : 13,747 : 115.4x : 14,407 : 121.0x / 14,985 : 129.4x / 14,091 : 145.7x / 132.0x : falling
TreguntML : 19,240 : 161.6x : 19,180 : 161.1x / 19,609 : 169.4x / 17,513 : 181.1x / 170.5x
DynastyML: 25,072 : 210.6x : 23,181 : 194.7x / 23,883 : 206.3x / 21,639 : 223.8x / 208.3x
ZenithWC. : 12,362 : 103.8x : 12,715 : 106.8x / 14,002 : 120.9x / 11,798 : 122.0x / 116.7x
Sorrento-- : 15,379 : 129.2x : 17,849 : 149.9x / 16,316 : 140.9x / 13,258 : 137.1x / 142.6x
MeiFo0SC : $7,870 : 66.10x : $ 7,870 : 66.10x / $6,346 : 54.81x / $ 6,088 : 62.97x / 61.29x :

ParkC-Tko : $7,756 : 65.14x : $ 7,796 : 65.47x / $7,536 : 65.09x / $ 6,031 : 62.38x / 64.31x
RivieraTW : $6,384 : 53.62x : $ 6,467 : 54.31x / $5,791 : 50.02x / $ 4,589 : 47.47x / 50.69x : rising
Prk.Island : $6,328 : 53.15x : $ 6,529 : 54.83x / $6,585 : 56.88x / $ 5,645 : 58.39x / 56.70x
CariCoast : $5,603 : 47.06x : $ 5,768 : 48.44x / $6,053 : 52.28x / $ 4,610 : 47.68x / 49.47x : falling
Kingswood: $4,483 : 37.65x : $ 4,502 : 37.81x / $4,282 : 36.98x / $ 4,035 : 41.74x / 38.84x

=========

Park Avenue and Taikoo Shing seem to hover at "around 100x" times the Index

ParkAve. : 11,478 : 97.93x :

TaikooSh: 11,681 : 101.8% :

Robin Pl. : 13,721 : 119.5% :

ZenithW. : 13,052 : 113.7% :

Sorrento : 15,779 : 137.5% :

Pk.Island : $6,303 : 53.22x :

CarCoast : $5,484 : 47.78% ::

=======

> Index---- : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

> History-- : http://202.72.14.52/p2/cci/SearchHistory.aspx

> Pk.Island http://hk.centadata.com/tfs_centadata/Pih2Sln/TransactionHistory.aspx?type=1&code=WDPPWBPXPB&cuntcode=WDPPWBPXPBPPWA&fun=PastTran&ci=en-us

> AX-newP : http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/153580/new-homes-for-sale-2014/

[drbubb]

The "BUILDING BOOM" Is Not Uniform across HK

 

The number of private home completions in Hong Kong this year will reach its highest since 2004, the government said on Friday, further pressuring developers after a series of cooling measures forced them to cut prices.

The number of flats forecast for completion in 2014 is around 17,610, a 113 percent increase from a year earlier, according to the city's Rating and Valuation Department.

With a surge in new home supply and higher government duties to cool prices - which have soared nearly 120 percent since 2008 - competition to lure buyers could trigger even steeper discounts and further pressure developers' margins in one of the world's most expensive home markets, analysts said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/04/hongkong-property-idUSL4N0MW0ZM20140404

========

 

People need to keep in mind Two Things:

 

1 / Actual completions are nearly always substantially lower than Expected completions

( Projected completions for 2014: 17,610, up 113%, but are back down to 12,660 in 2015.

What is likely to happen is 1,000's of those 2014 completions will get pushed back.)

 

2 / The construction boom is NOT uniform across HK, as the SCMP version of the article states:

==

+ Nearly 61% of the expected completions are in the NT, and especially Tsuen Wan, Tsueng Kwan O, and Yuen Long.

+ "Developers will prefer to release flats in the NT, and accept a lower price", says Mr.Lam in today's SCMP

+ "In prime locations such as HK Island, they won't cut prices and would prefer to sit on inventory"

 

Thomas Lam of Knight Frank (may be talking his book), when he says he expects a 10% fall overall,

with a 15% fall in the NT. Does this mean he expects a 0-5% fall on HK Island, where his company's

business may be concentrated?

 

I do agree with Lam that the locations matter, but HK Island's advantage is being eroded by new transport,

and the migration of jobs outside the CBD in Central - on HK Island. The location of jobs (and maybe schools)

matter more than the Hong Kong person's historical bias in favor of the Island.

 

The Ratios above, show how Robinson Place on Mid-Levels has slid, compared with the rest of the SAR.

[drbubb]

MTR Access is a most critical "LOCATIONAL" Consideration

=

 

Hong Kong named ‘best city in the world for commuters’

Public transportation gets top marks in survey but cycling and air quality still a problem

PUBLISHED : 02 April, 2014 / UPDATED : Thursday, 03 April, 2014

Ada Lee / ada.lee@scmp.com

• 

A study praises Hong Kong's MTR saying it has turned the city's high population density "into an opportunity rather than a threat". Photo: K.Y. Cheng

Hong Kong is the best place in the world for people to travel around, but falls behind in cycling paths and air quality, a study has found.

The study, involving 84 major cities across the globe, found the city had developed “the most advanced urban mobility system in the world”, with public transport being the main mode of commuting and the number of registered vehicles per head of population is one of the lowest.

Hong Kong, which also topped the list in the last survey in 2011, scored 58.2 out of 100 this year, followed by Stockholm with 54.7, Amsterdam third and Copenhagen fourth. Singapore is in sixth place, after Vienna.

 

London ranked ninth in the study, with Tokyo 19th and Beijing 28th, followed by Guangzhou.

 

The Urban Mobility Index report, compiled by international consultancy company Arthur D Little, found Hong Kong’s railway system “impressive”, and the high use of Octopus cards also played an important part in securing the top spot. “MTR has turned Hong Kong’s high population density into an opportunity rather than a threat,” it said.

 

Watch: Hong Kong's MTR during peak hours

 

It described the city as “a striking example of a city entering into a virtuous system”, but it noted that its mobility had been shaped by “one dominant operator” – the railway.

“Further improvement of the mobility system will require more co-operation with other stakeholders in the ecosystem and the introduction of innovative mobility services”.

Further improvement of the mobility system will require more co-operation with other stakeholders in the ecosystem and the introduction of innovative mobility services

Although the city fares well in most indicators of the study, its score in cycle path density was the lowest in the top 11 cities. Hong Kong only has 187 kilometres of cycling paths for every 1000 square kilometres of land, compared to 4,041 in Stockholm, 3,502 in Amsterdam and 280 in Singapore.

 

The city also did not do well in the air quality indicators.

==

> more: http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1463043/hong-kong-best-city-world-commuters

 

=

[drbubb]

MEI FOO has probably been the best-performing single location in HK since the 2003 Low

 

MFSC : 2003-Low : $1,600-ish / 2013-High : $7,900-ish // that's + 393% ! (almost 5X the 2003-Low!)

Centa.: 2003-Low : $1,600-ish / 2013-High : $7,900-ish //

 

This is because of its superb connectivity, and the ongoing shift of Jobs away from HK Island.

 

MTR Map ... Larger-Map

xx

 

Mei Foo Sun Cheun ... update

 

I think that MF's connectivity may already be "priced in", and other areas, which will benefit from shifts in Transport from New MTR lines and otehr transport infrastructure may be the big winners in the future.

 

One area I like is Tai Kok Tsui (and also Kowloon Station to Nam Cheong) - which is a well built area (like Mei Foo was) that will be getting better transport connections.

 

Please help me identify other interesting areas

[drbubb]

Index values FALLING along TC Line - has declined more than Bank Valuations

 

 

Perhaps banks had moved valuations BEFORE the Index Falls.

 

Area==== : TKO-CHt: TK*TsW : TKT-CPk: TY-TVrd: TC-CrCs: TktLb30 : Tkt-IsHV : PrspG*KC
Tower/ Fl. : Tw3-30C: Tw3-25C: Tw3-30C: Tw3-30C: T3-30C : Tw3-30C: Tw3-30C : Tw3-28C

========

Oct-10/31 : $7.810M: $6.090M : $11.64M: $8.720M : $4.120M: $7.000M : $9.680M : $6.430M

Nov-11/30 : $7.540M: $6.070M : $11.52M: $8,720M : $4.060M: $7.000M : $9,680M : $6.370M

Dec-12/31 : $7.540M: $6.070M : $11.46M: $8,460M : $4.040M: $6.960M : $9,630M : $6.370M

'14.-01/31 : $7.430M: $6.040M : $11.46M: $8,460M : $4.040M: $6.960M : $9,630M : $6.370M

Feb.- 2/28 : $7.390M: $6.040M : $11.41M: $8,410M : $3.970M: $6.930M : $9,590M : $6.340M

Mar - 3/31 : $7.310M: $6.020M : $11.41M: $8,370M : $3.950M: $6.930M : $9,590M : $6.340M

Apr - 4/30 : $7.310M: $6.020M : $11.41M: $8,330M : $3.950M: $6.930M : $9,590M : $6.340M

=======

BANK VALUATIONS : TY-TVrd: TKT-CPk: TC-CrCs: CL-Index

Specific Flats ===== :: Tw3-30C: Tw3-30C: T3-30C : end Mo.

PEAK was October -- :: $8,720M: $11.64M: $4.120M: 119.50

----- Sq.feet, Gross -- :: 0,951 sf : 0,943 sf : 0,680 sf :

----- Per Sq.Foot ----- :: $ 9,169 : $12,344 : $ 6,059 :

Per CL-Index ---------- :: $ 9,077 : $11,958 : $ 6,137 :

.and November 2014 :: $8,720M: $11.52M: $4.060M: 120.39

At end April 2014 ---- :: $8,330M: $11.41M: $3.950M: 118.40

----- Per Sq.Foot,bank :: $ 8,759 : $12,100 : $ 5,809 :

----- Per Sq.Foot CCLI :: $ 8,517 : $11,148 : $ 5,660 :

Premium, BankValues $ 0,242 : $00,952 : $ 0,149 :

=================

Change, % Fall, BankVal :: - 4.47% : - 1.98% :: - 4.13% :: NotAppl

Change, % Fall, CL Index :: - 6.17% : - 6.77% :: - 7.77% :: - 0.92%

Less change, BankValues : +1.70% : +4.79% :: +3.64% ::

The Bank Values on specific flats (Tower 3, 30th Floor) are now ABOVE average CL Indices.

And maybe that is justified by a higher than Average floor (?), and/or better views.

[Traineeinvestor]

One thing I wish people would do when publishing charts showing HK property prices (or many other things) is to adjust them for inflation (or plot them on a log scale). It's implicit in the chart from The Economist that a Hong Kong dollar today is worth the same as a Hong Kong dollar in 1981. Obviously it is not worth nearly as much but by using the same dollar value it is misrepresenting the change in the real value of HK property over time.

 

There are other issues with that chart as well.

 

Agree with your comments on the number of completions and the relevance of access to he MTR in Hong Kong. The extension to Kennedy Town (which is already very accessable to Central) should make the area even more appealing.

[drbubb]

Good idea.

 

Even better might be a chart adjusting for Incomes, or Rents -

since it is from these, that housing gets paid for

 

The chart from above...

 

 

Does not look quite right to me.

I think we have seen more inflation than this chart suggests

 

/ BTW: people from AX who may want to post here, can get a Free password by:

Sending a Personal Message to OTP on AX /

[drbubb]

TWO DIFFERENT Points in Time: end MAR, and end MAY

 

MONITORING Specific LOCATIONS/projects : and comparing them to the INDEX, using Ratios

(MAR'14):

Location: 3/23/14: Ratio- : End.'13: Ratio-- / End.'12: Ratio-- / End.'11: Ratio-- / Aver.

======

Index---- : 118.42 :====== : 119.07 :====== / 115.78 :====== / $96.68 :====== / '11-13

ParkAve : 11,478 : 97.93x : 12,325 : 103.5x / 11,161 : 96.40x / 10,147 : 105.0x / 101.7x : stable ?

TaikooSh : 11,681 : 98.64x : 10,936 : 91.85x / 11,665 : 100.8x / $9,877 : 102.2x / 98.28x

Robin Pl : 13,721 : 115.9x : 14,407 : 121.0x / 14,985 : 129.4x / 14,091 : 145.7x / 132.0x : falling

Tregunt : 19,2?X : 162.Xx : 19,180 : 161.1x / 19,609 : 169.4x / 17,513 : 181.1x / 170.5x
Dynasty?: 23,9?X : 201.Xx : 23,181 : 194.7x / 23,883 : 206.3x / 21,639 : 223.8x / 208.3x

ZenithW. : 13,052 : 110.2x : 12,715 : 106.8x / 14,002 : 120.9x / 11,798 : 122.0x / 116.7x

Sorrento : 15,779 : 133.2x : 17,849 : 149.9x / 16,316 : 140.9x / 13,258 : 137.1x / 142.6x

MeiFoSC : 08,XXX :

Pk.Island : $6,303 : 53.22x : $6,529 : 54.83x / $6,585 : 56.88x / $5,645 : 58.39x / 56.70x

CarCoast: $5,484 : 46.31x : $5,768 : 48.44x / $6,053 : 52.28x / $4,610 : 47.68x / 49.47x : falling

Kingswod.: $4,586 : 38.71x : $4,502 : 37.81x / $4,282 : 36.98x / $4,035 : 41.74x / 38.84x

(MAY'14):

Location-: 5/25/14: Ratio-- : End.'13: Ratio-- / End.'12: Ratio-- / End.'11: Ratio-- / Aver.
========

Index----- : 119.07 : ====== / 119.07 : ======/ 115.78 : ======/ $96.68 : ======/ '11-13 :
ParkAveO : 11,594 : 97.37x : 12,325 : 103.5x / 11,161 : 96.40x / 10,147 : 105.0x / 101.7x : stable ?
TaikooShg : 11,149 : 93.63x : 10,936 : 91.85x / 11,665 : 100.8x / $9,877 : 102.2x / 98.28x
RobinPlac : 13,747 : 115.4x : 14,407 : 121.0x / 14,985 : 129.4x / 14,091 : 145.7x / 132.0x : falling
TreguntML : 19,240 : 161.6x : 19,180 : 161.1x / 19,609 : 169.4x / 17,513 : 181.1x / 170.5x
DynastyML: 25,072 : 210.6x : 23,181 : 194.7x / 23,883 : 206.3x / 21,639 : 223.8x / 208.3x
ZenithWC. : 12,362 : 103.8x : 12,715 : 106.8x / 14,002 : 120.9x / 11,798 : 122.0x / 116.7x
Sorrento-- : 15,379 : 129.2x : 17,849 : 149.9x / 16,316 : 140.9x / 13,258 : 137.1x / 142.6x
MeiFo0SC : $7,870 : 66.10x : $ 7,870 : 66.10x / $6,346 : 54.81x / $ 6,088 : 62.97x / 61.29x :

ParkC-Tko : $7,756 : 65.14x : $ 7,796 : 65.47x / $7,536 : 65.09x / $ 6,031 : 62.38x / 64.31x
RivieraTW : $6,384 : 53.62x : $ 6,467 : 54.31x / $5,791 : 50.02x / $ 4,589 : 47.47x / 50.69x : rising
Prk.Island : $6,328 : 53.15x : $ 6,529 : 54.83x / $6,585 : 56.88x / $ 5,645 : 58.39x / 56.70x
CariCoast : $5,603 : 47.06x : $ 5,768 : 48.44x / $6,053 : 52.28x / $ 4,610 : 47.68x / 49.47x : falling
Kingswood: $4,483 : 37.65x : $ 4,502 : 37.81x / $4,282 : 36.98x / $ 4,035 : 41.74x / 38.84x

=========