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Greece to leave Euro... Eventually


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#161 halight

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 02:20 PM

'Greece could be utterly destroyed by infighting in the Eurozone,' warns Foreign Office minister

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#162 halight

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 02:38 PM

Berlin split on Greek bail-out

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A split has emerged in the German government over whether to grant Greece a second bail-out package with Wolfgang Schäuble, finance minister, pushing to let Athens default while Chancellor Angela Merkel is firmly against, according to German and eurozone officials.

Mr Schäuble was said to have come to his hardline view in the light of haggling over Greece’s fresh austerity measures under a second rescue programme and the refusal of some Greek politicians to promise to back the deal after elections due in April.

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Schäuble doesn’t think the Greeks can deliver any more,” said one official in Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, adding that the minister was worried about putting more of German taxpayers’ money into a second bail-out.

A chancellery official stressed that Ms Merkel and Mr Schäuble were united in their goal of getting Greece to sign up to eurozone demands before approving the package. But he also conceded that the finance minister was “showing more impatience” than the chancellor. The finance ministry could not be reached for comment.

Mr Schäuble has angered the Greeks in recent days – and caused much head-scratching in Berlin – with public calls for Greece to postpone April elections and to install instead a technocratic government similar to that formed by Mario Monti in Italy.


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#163 callmejoe

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 08:30 PM

Newsflash Athens:DA Peponis Indicts Papandreou and Papakonstantinou for Treason


http://rmiglobal.org...ou-for-treason/

#164 LauraB

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 10:07 PM

Berlin split on Greek bail-out

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A split has emerged in the German government over whether to grant Greece a second bail-out package with Wolfgang Schäuble, finance minister, pushing to let Athens default while Chancellor Angela Merkel is firmly against, according to German and eurozone officials.

Mr Schäuble was said to have come to his hardline view in the light of haggling over Greece’s fresh austerity measures under a second rescue programme and the refusal of some Greek politicians to promise to back the deal after elections due in April.

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Schäuble doesn’t think the Greeks can deliver any more,” said one official in Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, adding that the minister was worried about putting more of German taxpayers’ money into a second bail-out.

A chancellery official stressed that Ms Merkel and Mr Schäuble were united in their goal of getting Greece to sign up to eurozone demands before approving the package. But he also conceded that the finance minister was “showing more impatience” than the chancellor. The finance ministry could not be reached for comment.

Mr Schäuble has angered the Greeks in recent days – and caused much head-scratching in Berlin – with public calls for Greece to postpone April elections and to install instead a technocratic government similar to that formed by Mario Monti in Italy.


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Halight you are amazing.
Not only do you infringe the FT's copyright, but you also include two of their warnings about it!
Let us hope admin get here before trigger-happy Invision after receiving a complaint.

#165 halight

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Posted 18 February 2012 - 10:08 AM

Halight you are amazing.
Not only do you infringe the FT's copyright, but you also include two of their warnings about it!
Let us hope admin get here before trigger-happy Invision after receiving a complaint.



Sorry,
Dr B please deleate any of my posts taht you think infringe anybodys copyright
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#166 halight

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Posted 18 February 2012 - 03:56 PM

Staring into the abyss: Inside a despairing Greek nation where families queue at soup kitchens and women threaten to jump to their deaths as job losses mount

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#167 halight

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Posted 18 February 2012 - 06:23 PM

Greek cabinet tackles austerity, rescue hopes rise

(Reuters) - Greece's cabinet tackled on Saturday how to implement austerity demanded by the EU and IMF as a 130-billion-euro ($171-billion) rescue seemed within reach, while the euro zone considered modifying a deal with private creditors to help Athens reduce its huge debts.


Link http://www.reuters.c...E8120HI20120218





Looks likle the deal is on again, Howw long before we hear there are problems again ?
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#168 John Doe

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Posted 18 February 2012 - 08:46 PM

I've watched the riots etc in Greece, but to be honest, they seem quite piddley, even compared to the recent UK riots.

Really, I would have expected millions of people out on the streets?

Each time Greek riots are shown, there are only a relatively small number of protestors.

Anyone know why?
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#169 romans holiday

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Posted 18 February 2012 - 09:18 PM

I've watched the riots etc in Greece, but to be honest, they seem quite piddley, even compared to the recent UK riots.

Really, I would have expected millions of people out on the streets?

Each time Greek riots are shown, there are only a relatively small number of protestors.

Anyone know why?

Perhaps the philosophical traditions of Stoicism and Epicureanism are alive and well? When Greece fell last time, they resorted to these other-worldy consolations. :rolleyes:
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
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#170 John Doe

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Posted 18 February 2012 - 11:18 PM

Perhaps the philosophical traditions of Stoicism and Epicureanism are alive and well? When Greece fell last time, they resorted to these other-worldy consolations. :rolleyes:


One can but hope :D

Oh, and I see Fitch is saying Iceland is now safe to lend to again. 3 years since default.
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#171 DrBubb

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Posted 19 February 2012 - 12:43 AM

Sorry,
Dr B please deleate any of my posts taht you think infringe anybodys copyright

That could take weeks -
Google has already pulled Google Ads from here, since they have spotted a potential problem in that regard
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#172 DrBubb

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Posted 19 February 2012 - 12:45 AM

I've watched the riots etc in Greece, but to be honest, they seem quite piddley, even compared to the recent UK riots.
Really, I would have expected millions of people out on the streets?
Each time Greek riots are shown, there are only a relatively small number of protestors.
Anyone know why?

They are not paid to protest, and cannot retire from it with a pension at 50.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#173 LauraB

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Posted 19 February 2012 - 12:54 AM

I've watched the riots etc in Greece, but to be honest, they seem quite piddley, even compared to the recent UK riots.

Really, I would have expected millions of people out on the streets?

Each time Greek riots are shown, there are only a relatively small number of protestors.

Anyone know why?


Yes John. The 'protesters' are roped together with a guy each end of the rope. The pulling back and forth is supposed to generate excitement.
The method was pioneered by the BBC for Top of the Pops.

#174 halight

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Posted 19 February 2012 - 07:43 AM

That could take weeks -
Google has already pulled Google Ads from here, since they have spotted a potential problem in that regard



How about jsut deleateing all of my posts on block ? Thatway anything that iv posted will be gone. End of the trouble then?
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#175 John Doe

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Posted 19 February 2012 - 09:38 AM

Yes John. The 'protesters' are roped together with a guy each end of the rope. The pulling back and forth is supposed to generate excitement.
The method was pioneered by the BBC for Top of the Pops.


Ah, that's genius :D

But really, I would expect hundreds of thousands* if not millions to be out protesting (if not rioting)?




*people, not the little sweet things that go on cakes and ice creams etc ;)
"Hey - don't worry, don't be afraid, ever, because, this is just a ride..." Bill Hicks

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#176 Roddy

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Posted 19 February 2012 - 06:49 PM

(1) I think it is likely that Greece will exit the Eurozone but I do not think it is in the best interests of the Greek people
(2) I think the following article is worth reading - http://www.economist.com/node/21547750
(3) The issue for Greece is that it has no significant natural resources it can export (ignoring tourism for a second) and no strong adjacent economies it can trade with
(4) I also suggest reading Reinhart and Rogoff table 6.6 which mentions that under the author's definition of default (which IIRC includes a 20% deval) Greece has been in default or restructuring 50.6% of the time since 1800 to 2006 (actually I think Greek independence was around 1832 so that may be the start date).
(5) The key question to ask is why it requires a technocratic PM to force through change rather than elected politicians. There is a failure of democracy in Greece - but the failure is not now but over the last 20 years.
(6) Exiting the Eurozone would mean that the cronyism has no pressure to change. The nation will then continue to repeatedly default or devalue for generations.
(7) One has to ask if a Greece which has switched to drachma could stay within the EU as it is likely a switch will require restrictions on the movement of capital and people (hence breaking two of the EU's sacred principles)
(8) In that situation (ie a Greece outside the EU) why would any foreign investor choose to invest in Greece as opposed to Spain, Portugal, Italy or Ireland (if they all remain within the EU)?
(9) One has to remember that before joining the EU Greece was one of the poorest countries in Europe. Why?
(10) I think the expectations for growth in Greece under the austerity measures are probably underestimated. I say this as I believe that the public sector, by over generous salaries etc, has diverted intellect and labour away from the private sector. In addition the deadening hand of bureaucracy and graft has probably excessively suppressed the private sector in Greece. The general assumption seems to be that 1 Euro removed from the public sector is one Euro less to the economy. I disagree - if it means that the private sector retains that Euro then the multiplier is likely to be higher than in the public sector (Maudlin in 'The Endgame' suggests it might be as high as 3x for the US - I think arguably in Greece it might be even higher).
A reduction in the public sector in Greece, accompanied by a reduction in regulation, bureaucracy and both the opportunity for graft and the number of hands seeking the same is likely to speed growth of the private sector. However this will only happen under a strong PM within the EZ.

#177 Mugged Saver

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Posted 19 February 2012 - 07:10 PM

(8) In that situation (ie a Greece outside the EU) why would any foreign investor choose to invest in Greece as opposed to Spain, Portugal, Italy or Ireland (if they all remain within the EU)?
(9) One has to remember that before joining the EU Greece was one of the poorest countries in Europe. Why?



(8) If Greece defaulted they wouldn't be crushed by debt, could devalue, tourism would recover. An investor's currency would be worth a lot more drachmae so they could buy more assets.
(9) They had low wages. In a globalised world that gets jobs and investment doesn't it?

#178 G0ldfinger

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Posted 19 February 2012 - 08:39 PM

(6) Exiting the Eurozone would mean that the cronyism has no pressure to change. The nation will then continue to repeatedly default or devalue for generations.

Yes, but why not if they wish to do so? It's a little like bringing freedom and liberty to Iraq or Afghanistan, isn't it? Horse and water come to mind...
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#179 LauraB

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Posted 19 February 2012 - 09:34 PM

(8) If Greece defaulted they wouldn't be crushed by debt, could devalue, tourism would recover.


For tourism you need financially healthy airlines. A subject worthy of its own thread perhaps?

#180 callmejoe

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Posted 20 February 2012 - 01:43 AM

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