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Greece to leave Euro... Eventually


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#41 halight

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 05:08 PM

Wonder how may more will walk out ?


I know her party do stands a good chance of winning in April. So this could have more to do with winning votes.
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#42 neel

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 05:25 PM

Wonder how may more will walk out ?


I know her party do stands a good chance of winning in April. So this could have more to do with winning votes.


Her party, PASOK which was the government under Papandreou for the last 2 years, is now supported by only 8% of the population !!!, in my mind this party is in serious trouble in the next elections. This drop in popularity of course is related to the pain salary+ pension cuts and tax increases have caused to the vast majority of the population. Hence, the myth that Greece has done nothing, is just a myth.

#43 halight

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 05:29 PM

Greek Bailout at Risk as Party Pushes Back

Link http://www.bloomberg...d-for-cuts.html


Greece’s bailout was at risk of unraveling as a governing coalition party pushed back against German demands for deeper budget cuts needed to prevent financial collapse.

Greek police used tear gas to counter demonstrators in Athens as Prime Minister Lucas Papademos called a meeting of his ministers this evening to discuss a bill detailing the austerity measures to be put to a parliamentary vote this weekend. The Cabinet was due to meet after one minister and three deputies from the Laos party as well as a Socialist minister said they were quitting in protest at the steps worked out for a rescue.

“What has particularly bothered me is the humiliation of the country,” George Karatzaferis, whose Laos party has 16 members in the 300-seat parliament, said in televised comments. “Clearly Greece can’t and shouldn’t do without the European Union but it could do without the German boot.”

Karatzaferis spoke hours after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers in Berlin that Greece was missing deficit goals and had to do more to meet the targets in the 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) bailout being negotiated.

With Greece’s second rescue package in the balance, the parties that support Papademos’s interim government are meeting ahead of parliamentary votes on the new measures. Lawmakers from both the Socialist Pasok party and the New Democracy party that leads in opinion polls before elections due as soon as April will meet to discuss the steps tomorrow.

Stocks Fall

Global stocks fell for the first time in four days and the euro weakened from yesterday’s two-month high against the dollar as the plan for Greece ran into turbulence.

Underscoring the mood in Athens, police scuffled with protesters as Greek unions held the first day of a 48-hour strike against the austerity measures demanded by the so-called troika of international creditors who monitor progress made by Greece.

Schaeuble, briefing lawmakers on troika estimates relayed to euro-area finance ministers in Brussels yesterday, said that current plans would leave Greece’s debt as high as 136 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, according to two people in the meeting in Berlin. That compares with the 120 percent foreseen in the country’s second bailout. Debt was about 160 percent of GDP last year.

“The Greek offer is not sufficient and they have to go away to come up with a revised plan,” Bertrand Benoit, a spokesman for the German Finance Ministry, said by telephone



Read more at the website.
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#44 halight

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 05:39 PM

“What has particularly bothered me is the humiliation of the country,” George Karatzaferis, whose Laos party has 16 members in the 300-seat parliament, said in televised comments. “Clearly Greece can’t and shouldn’t do without the European Union but it could do without the German boot.”



This is what court my eye,
Its the Humiliation of the country. If the boot was on the other foot and it was the UK needing a bail out. This is also what i would feel and many others i belive would feel the same.

If the people really feel down trodden by the Germans and the other euro members then once the country get the bailout they need, The Goverment wont have any chance of putting any of the harsher cuts in place without the will of the people behind then.

The people will rise up.
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#45 halight

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 06:02 PM

Her party, PASOK which was the government under Papandreou for the last 2 years, is now supported by only 8% of the population !!!, in my mind this party is in serious trouble in the next elections. This drop in popularity of course is related to the pain salary+ pension cuts and tax increases have caused to the vast majority of the population. Hence, the myth that Greece has done nothing, is just a myth.



Sorry i think im getting my partys mixed up :D

Whats the party that is tiped to win in April ? Is it the Socialist party ?
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#46 halight

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 06:05 PM

Riot police go up in flames as Greek protesters armed with petrol bombs and sledgehammers rampage through Athens
Thousands demonstrate against fresh wave of austerity measures
Yobs in gas masks smash up pavements and hurl rubble at officers
Two-day general strike comes after Government agrees more cuts
EU leaders deepen anger by ordering Greece to slash another 325million euros by next week
Two Greek ministers resign in protest over latest demands



Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1m0GylqLw

The daily mail have some really good photos of the Riots,


Also i do belive that the number of greek ministers that have resigned is now six!
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#47 halight

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 06:10 PM

A BITTER PILL: THE AUSTERITY MEASURES IN DETAIL
To secure a second bailout deal Greece must accept:

A 22 per cent cut in the monthly minimum wage to €586
Layoffs for 15,000 of civil servants
An end to dozens of job guarantee provisions
A 20 per cent cut in its government work force by 2015
Spending cuts of more than €3 billion in 2012
Further cuts to retiree pension benefits
Greece needs a bailout to redeem €14.5 billion in bonds by March 20 and strike a vital debt-relief deal with bond investors.
If they miss the deadline analysts fear the crisis could spread to other eurozone countries.
The terms of the 2010 bailout - higher taxes and deep cuts in public spending - pushed Greece deeper into recession and the country's failure to control spending caused its debt burden to rise.
Its economy shrank at an annual rate of five per cent in the third quarter of 2011, the most recent quarter for which data are available.


Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1m0IQymjy
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#48 halight

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 06:16 PM

"There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword.. The other is by debt."
-John Adams 1826





Looks like Grease might end up with both.
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#49 callmejoe

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 07:35 PM

http://www.keeptalki...ka-of-warrants/

Federation of Police Officers wrote an open letter to the Troika representatives and warn them that it will ask to issue warrants against them.



#50 halight

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 07:53 PM

http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2012/02/10/greek-police-federation-warns-the-troika-of-warrants/





I was about to post that,


Things are reallly turning ugly now.
But i do belive that a deal will happen.


Its after the deal, that counts. And i think there will be trouble.
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#51 G0ldfinger

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 08:22 PM

... Greek Deputy Foreign Minister Marilisa Xenogiannakopoulou,...

Longest and most difficult to pronounce surname I have ever seen (hyphens and nobility excluded). Give me a Papa!
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
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#52 G0ldfinger

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 08:25 PM

The Greek people prefer hyper-inflation. I totally understand.
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
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#53 G0ldfinger

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 08:32 PM

It's very simple: anyone who backs the Troika has reached the end of his/her political career in Greece by default. They will be lucky if they don't get death threats. That's why the rats are leaving the sinking ship.

It's just like in Germany in 1917/18.
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#54 G0ldfinger

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 08:39 PM

“What has particularly bothered me is the humiliation of the country,” George Karatzaferis, whose Laos party has 16 members in the 300-seat parliament, said in televised comments. “Clearly Greece can’t and shouldn’t do without the European Union but it could do without the German boot.”
...

You have to understand the context:

Karatzaferis spoke hours after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers in Berlin that Greece was missing deficit goals and had to do more to meet its bailout commitments.

Schaeuble was "Mr. 3%" in Germany over decade ago: only countries with a deficit of 3% or less would be allowed to join the Euro, so Germans could sleep sound at night with no worries about losing the Deutschmark. I remember the "3% are 3%"-phrase. No 0.1 of a percent more should be allowed.

Well, either Schaeuble closed both eyes, or Greece fudged him up the behind with the help of Goldman Sucks. Say latter was the case - they cheated their way in (the Germans could sense it, BTW; and not only Greece, of course) - well, then do you understand the "boot" now? :) And, BTW, he is paralyzed after an assassination many years ago, so he'd rather give them the fist.

Schaeuble is trying to do something for his own politcal legacy. He fudged up royally when letting in Greece over a decade ago. Now he has to make up for it. Payback time.

He'd really make up for his mistake if he pushed them out asap.

Posted Image
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#55 G0ldfinger

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 08:53 PM

Greek finance minister Venizelos talking to German finance minister Schaeuble.

Well, I can tell you, and you see it here: Schaeuble just can't take it anymore.

Posted Image
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#56 G0ldfinger

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 09:06 PM

“What has particularly bothered me is the humiliation of the country,” George Karatzaferis, whose Laos party has 16 members in the 300-seat parliament, said in televised comments. “Clearly Greece can’t and shouldn’t do without the European Union but it could do without the German boot.”

I read he literally said today that Merkel couldn't do anything anyway because a Greek default would drag the whole of Europe into the abyss. Do, that's why his ministers can step back, because they think German money will rain onto them anyway. Well, we'll see. The thing is, German politicians have careers to take care of too, and their careers are over if they hand out free money to Greece while their people are facing a harsher and harsher economic reality. Merkel and Mr. 3% know this.
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
Posted Image
Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#57 DrBubb

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Posted 11 February 2012 - 12:07 AM

Here's a neat little piece of half-hearted scaremongering by Jim Sinclair

He's says that ISDA's impedning decision (on declaring a default or not by ISDA) threatens to bankrupt 5 big banks, who he says "hold 97% of the liabilities" behind the outstanding CDS's backing Greek debt.

http://www.jsmineset...major-us-banks/

Here are the stakes, which he never explains clearly:

Some portion (?) of the Greek debt of EUR xx Billion is backed by Credit Default Swaps (CDS) issued by big Global banks. ISDA was to make a decision about whether or not the proposed 70% haircut being forced on the private creditors was an event-of-default-which-triggers-payment on the outstanding CDS obligations relating to Greek debt.

Since ISDA* makes the decision, they are likely to make one that least harms its members (the big banks).

What will their decision be?
ISDA has already said that a voluntary reorg is not an event of default.
(see: http://video.cnbc.co...ideo=3000053670 )
The upshot would be banks and hedge funds holding CDS on Greek debt, would get no payout on those CDS, because default has not been declared.

But that may not be the end of it. I expect that some hedge funds holding CDS insurance will take this potentially biased decision to court eventually.
=== === ====

*Why might I understand this better than JS:
First of all, as often happens: he is tongue-tied (intentionally or unintentionallly) in discussing some complex financial structures.

Secondly, Years ago when I worked at Chase, my boss was R-- S--, and his non Chase job was Chairman of ISDA, so I have some insight into how ISDA operates, from having seen his decision-making up close. (There's a book out there someplace about derivatives, for which he was Editor, and I contributed a chapter.)
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#58 DrBubb

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Posted 11 February 2012 - 12:09 AM

Greek finance minister Venizelos talking to German finance minister Schaeuble.

Well, I can tell you, and you see it here: Schaeuble just can't take it anymore.

Posted Image

He's even in a wheelchair.
The problems must lay very heavily on his shoulders
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#59 callmejoe

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Posted 11 February 2012 - 12:27 AM

You sure they're not playing paper, stone and scissors?

#60 DrBubb

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Posted 11 February 2012 - 12:34 AM

Here's a neat little piece of half-hearted scaremongering by Jim Sinclair

He's says that ISDA's impending decision (on declaring a default or not by ISDA) threatens to bankrupt 5 big banks, who he says "hold 97% of the liabilities" behind the outstanding CDS's backing Greek debt.

http://www.jsmineset...major-us-banks/

In contrast to JS's clumsy scaremongering, here's the actual size of the potential problem for the banks:

No more Greek CDS

Dealers do not expect the Greek CDS trigger to cause heavy losses for banks. For one, the net notional of US$3.2bn is small compared with the €350bn of Greek debt outstanding, and the issue has been flagged well enough in advance for participants to be prepared.

“I don’t think we’ll have a new [Greek CDS] market. Who’s going to sell it? All we’re doing now is trading legacy risk from the heyday of the credit bubble”

There is no consensus, however on how long it will take the Greek CDS market to re-emerge after a CDS trigger. Two major dealers expected to be quoting Greek CDS again within a matter of weeks citing likely client demand for the product. In contrast, a trader looking after distressed sovereigns for a major firm said he would be happy to see the back of Greek CDS.

“I don’t think we’ll have a new [Greek CDS] market. Who’s going to sell it? All we’re doing now is trading legacy risk from the heyday of the credit bubble,” he said.


/source: http://www.ifre.com/...0047837.article

$3.2 billion is not a big deal.
Even JS could cover a decent part of that from his likely profits from trading gold.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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