296 replies to this topic

[John Doe]

Thanks for the posts SP & Dr B. (and those who have PM'd previously about other posters).

To be fair though, after a few initial misunderstandings, the Kid and I (and a few other posters) do have an understanding and our posts (and digs) to one another, while sometimes polar opposites, are given (and taken) in good humour.

I also enjoy many of the threads where we actually agree with one another (it does happen now and again).

However, the same cannot be said about one or two other posters whose constant digs carry malicious undertones. I have decided that it's best not to converse with them.

LauraB, on 04 August 2011 - 06:29 AM, said:

Unfortunately FK cannot do that as JD goading is written into GEI's ancient charter.

Not sure about the GEI ancient character LB (I have been posting here for many years now), but yes it seems to have gone that way a bit recently.

I suppose I have to expect it a bit by being just slightly bearish rather than an end of the world type bear  

[DrBubb]

Meralti, on 01 August 2011 - 05:18 PM, said:

BDEV rallied on very thin volumn and fell and much stronger selling. Check the charts. Banks were also hammered.
And we had a strong 252 MA cross which is part of what the bellweather is about.

The Carnage continues... : BDEV-intraday



The elephant-in-the-room (Inflated prices) may soon be on the prowl.



BDEV : 87.45 / Change: -3.70 // Percent Change: -4.06%
Open: 92.70 / High: 92.80 / Low: 87.00 // Volume:4,332,997

I wonder if the reckless folks who bought homes recently, understand that their housing dreams
may be eviscerated - in the sense that they may soon slide into Negative Equity.

Where are the other warnings coming from now ??*
Are we headed for a big August or September surprise in the UK housing indices?
Why are so few now talking about that (strong?) possibility?

== == ==

*we did get warnings back in 2007:

House price crash warning

on 6th December 2007

The housing market may be heading for a sharp fall, a leading expert will warn today. Economist David Miles says property prices will probably drop dramatically in the next few years.

The collapse will come when the rapid rise in prices starts to tail off, according to Mr Miles, who is a former adviser to Gordon Brown.

Demand has been heavily influenced by the expectation that prices will continue to rise quickly. When the big annual rises fail to materialise, 'significant' falls are likely.
'A sharp fall in real house prices is likely at some point in the relatively near future, though it could yet be one to two years away,' his report concludes.

Read more: http://www.thisismon...l#ixzz1U3lMbplo

[Schaublin]

starterpack, on 04 August 2011 - 04:51 AM, said:

The kind of exchanges between Fitkid and John Doe really says a lot about todays internet forum culture.
Fitkid won't just have his say and let John Doe have his say and let the reader decide for themselves.
Instead what you get is Fitkid mildly / moderately attacking John Doe who calmly lets the attack pass him by.
Eventually it will boil over or someone will just stop posting.
I imagine the light touch of a moderator might help but most of these are unpaid and/or too light touch?
I really enjoy learning from the wealth of knowledge posters bring to this site especially if both sides can say their piece without being attacked.
Come on Fitkid just stick to telling it like you see it and resist goading too much. Please.

I don't agree with this analysis.  John Doe's posts are subtle attempts to influence readers who are beginning to wake up to the inherent unwholesomeness of the system and steer them back into active participation. The cunning underlying message is "You can't beat the system" - but I can help you take advantage of it and climb over others for your own material gain  (and don't feel bad about it because you can donate some money to Africa).

Fitkid is calling out this disgraceful behaviour - but is never malicious. I have done so as well but hardly have the energy available at the moment to do so particularly effectively.

[John Doe]

Schaublin, on 04 August 2011 - 12:49 PM, said:

I don't agree with this analysis.  John Doe's posts are subtle attempts to influence readers who are beginning to wake up to the inherent unwholesomeness of the system and steer them back into active participation. The cunning underlying message is "You can't beat the system" - but I can help you take advantage of it and climb over others for your own material gain  (and don't feel bad about it because you can donate some money to Africa).

  

Dear oh dear. Do you honestly believe this  

Coming from the poster who says it's wrong for a mass murderer to suffer, yet in the same breath will say it's absolutely fine to sit by and watch innocent women & children starve to death instead of donating a poxy few quid, and then will have the audacity to condemn those who, even in a little way, try to help.

From the poster who stated that they believed (and posted the Jihad-watch article) the blatant anti Muslim propaganda that all rapes in Norway over a 5 year period were committed by Muslims was actually true (twice).

When if you had actually sat and thought for 2 minutes about what had happened to all the Norwegian rapists over that period, as you were asked at the time, you would have realised it was obviously rubbish.

What a strange mix you are.

I would not bother with you in person, so I ask you again, please stop bothering me here.

[DrBubb]

The Builder Carnage continues another day...

(1)
BDEV: 77.40 Change: -6.50 // Percent Change: -7.75%
Open: 79.90 / High: 80.00 / Low: 75.15 // Volume: 545,725

Low of the last 12 months was: 69.00p

(2)
PSN : 385.00 Change: -21.50 // Percent Change: -5.29%
Open: 397.90 / High: 400.30 / Low: 385.00 // Volume: 83,043

Low of the last 12 months was: 335.90p
== == ==

Halifax: Halifax July HPI: 0.3% mom -2.6% yoy

Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said: "House prices in the three months to July were 0.5% higher than in the previous three months. This was the first increase in this key measure of underlying price movements for 14 months. Prices rose for the third consecutive month, increasing by 0.3% in July.

This just shows that Halifax figures are lagging.
And Builder shares are a leading indicator, even ahead of Rightmove's index.

Anyone have any feeling of what is happen "on the ground"?


Meantime: the stunning cluelessness continues on the Mickey Mouse site

[Van]

Halifax +0.3% July.

Builders shares have slid, but lets face it they're not exactly the only stocks that have dropped today.

[DrBubb]

Van, on 05 August 2011 - 07:38 AM, said:

Halifax +0.3% July.
Builders shares have slid, but lets face it they're not exactly the only stocks that have dropped today.

Sure.
But the slide in Builder shares is FAR DEEPER than the drop in FTSE.
This is meaningful, since key support levels for BDEV and PSN have been breeched.


== ==

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx
M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 153,700 - 0.1% / 167,208 = n/a = 160,519 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% :
J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 153,550 - 0.1% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,049 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% :
Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 153,400 - 0.1% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% :
=====================================
mom: - 1.58% : - 1.36% : Est.DI: 141.9% / +0.31% = n/a = :+0.57% :+0.65% : + 0.70%

Halifax seems to have modified its seasonally adjusted figures once again

Here's the most recent version...


J'10 168,390
Feb 166,928
Mar 168,435
Apr 168,593
May 167,207
Jun 165,686
Jul 167,497
Aug 168,124
Sep 161,974
Oct 164,949
Nov 164,622
Dec 162,803
J'11 164,145
Feb 162,697
Mar 162,712
Apr 160,393
May 161,039
Jun 163,430
Jul 163,981

[John Doe]

DrBubb, on 05 August 2011 - 08:03 AM, said:

Sure.
But the slide in Builder shares is FAR DEEPER than the drop in FTSE.
This is meaningful, since key support levels for BDEV and PSN have been breeched.

Maybe, maybe not. The banks have been hit just as hard (if not harder).

Just a scare that the lending will seize up again.

As soon as the ECB pulls it’s finger out, things will cool off again.

(Just depends how long that takes of course    )

[Van]

. duplicate

[Van]

DrBubb, on 05 August 2011 - 08:03 AM, said:

Sure.
But the slide in Builder shares is FAR DEEPER than the drop in FTSE.
This is meaningful, since key support levels for BDEV and PSN have been breeched.

Sorry to disagree, but it may not be meaningful; most stocks have a higher beta than the market, at least in terms of the housing market. When the market falls individual stocks fall more. I would not read too much into the builders' stocks now. I agree they were fantastic warning for calling the big turn, but now a big fall in the builders might only feed through to a soft patch for house prices in general.  All I see happening if stocks are routed is that interest rates will be kept on hold into next summer and prices might soften up a little like we saw H2/2010 but all consistent with "3-5 years of stagnation" rather than apocalyse now.

[aliveandkicking]

I would have thought that if banks generally are reluctant to lend that the UK banks will,  on balance,  
be amongst the lenders not lending, and who will have maturing loans returning to the UK.
Therefore the fact that Gilts have risen in price is not so surprising.

And presumably measures of UK total debt are also falling at the same time?

Here in Finland 86% of government debt is held by foreigners
for the worst ratio of the entire eurozone. Surprisingly enuf..

Only 20% of UK government debt is held by foreigners

[LauraB]

DrBubb, on 05 August 2011 - 07:25 AM, said:

Anyone have any feeling of what is happen "on the ground"?
Meantime: the stunning cluelessness continues on the Mickey Mouse site

Not 'on the ground', more 'let's make another trash topical semi-documentary about poor 'home owners' '

UK ITV1 did a repo programme last night.

Quote

As more than 100 families a day lose their homes because they cannot afford the mortgage, one leading banker warns of a tsunami of repossessions when interest rates start to rise. Jonathan Maitland meets some of the families only just clinging on to their homes and examines what role the banks have played in this crisis.

I did't see it (just as well now I know who was on it, RB, the other one) but some of the non-chartist social comments by Lulu on hpc are ok?

#41 & 42 by Lulu
http://www.housepric...ic=167481&st=30

[DrBubb]

LauraB, on 05 August 2011 - 10:29 AM, said:

UK ITV1 did a repo programme last night.

I did't see it (just as well now I know who was on it, RB, the other one) but some of the non-chartist social comments by Lulu on hpc are ok?

#41 & 42 by Lulu
http://www.housepric...ic=167481&st=30

They are frightening people now.
It is a pity those people did not think more about THE RISK before they paid a high price, and took on massive mortgages.  Many people will wind up trapped, if/when interest rates rise.  The days of negative equity will be returning for many folks, I reckon.

[DrBubb]

Van, on 05 August 2011 - 08:59 AM, said:

Sorry to disagree, but it may not be meaningful; most stocks have a higher beta than the market, at least in terms of the housing market. When the market falls individual stocks fall more. I would not read too much into the builders' stocks now. I agree they were fantastic warning for calling the big turn, but now a big fall in the builders might only feed through to a soft patch for house prices in general.  All I see happening if stocks are routed is that interest rates will be kept on hold into next summer and prices might soften up a little like we saw H2/2010 but all consistent with "3-5 years of stagnation" rather than apocalyse now.

So far, the Indices are holding up well



In fact, the "Outside London" price managed to push slightly above the 12 month's Moving Average
at £128,990.  I think this will prove very temporary.

[LauraB]

DrBubb, on 06 August 2011 - 12:53 AM, said:

They are frightening people now.
It is a pity those people did not think more about THE RISK before they paid a high price, and took on massive mortgages.  

But but, this is the UK, & everyone knows you cannot go wro ...... ________________

Please do not adjust your set. Normal service will not be resumed (this time around)

[John Doe]

DrBubb, on 06 August 2011 - 12:53 AM, said:

They are frightening people now.
It is a pity those people did not think more about THE RISK before they paid a high price, and took on massive mortgages.  Many people will wind up trapped, if/when interest rates rise.  The days of negative equity will be returning for many folks, I reckon.

My brother in law has been in NE for ~4 years, but it's not a problem as he has a very secure job, pays his mortgage on time and lives in the house he wants to.

Its only ~£10k NE (at the moment) and he looked at taking the hit, paying it down and buying back later (especially when I mentioned that prices were likely to fall further over the next 6 months).

However, when he looked at the moving costs (solicitors, EA's fees, removals and re-buying fees etc) it would have been a close call.

He also lives in an area where it would cost more for him to rent the same house than his mortgage, but the difference was not that great.

NE is only really a problem if you haven't got a good secure job and/or a back up fund.

Without these things, it must be difficult and, as you put it, scary.

[fitkid]

With more than 100 families a day losing their homes because they cannot afford the mortgage payments, Jonathan Maitland examines what role the banks have played in this crisis.

http://www.itv.com/i...ay&channel=itv1

[marceau]

John Doe, on 06 August 2011 - 09:16 AM, said:

My brother in law has been in NE for ~4 years, but it's not a problem as he has a very secure job, pays his mortgage on time and lives in the house he wants to.

Its only ~£10k NE (at the moment) and he looked at taking the hit, paying it down and buying back later (especially when I mentioned that prices were likely to fall further over the next 6 months).

However, when he looked at the moving costs (solicitors, EA's fees, removals and re-buying fees etc) it would have been a close call.

He also lives in an area where it would cost more for him to rent the same house than his mortgage, but the difference was not that great.

NE is only really a problem if you haven't got a good secure job and/or a back up fund.

Without these things, it must be difficult and, as you put it, scary.

Sry John, but this is hilariously rose-tinted, even for you.

[John Doe]

marceau, on 06 August 2011 - 09:57 AM, said:

Sry John, but this is hilariously rose-tinted, even for you.

Really? Although I am trying harder to be more bearish for everyone, I thought this was quite a fair and balanced account as always  

Seriously though, it is a true story, and his house is worth ~ £150k (well it was        ).

What's he going to do?

He's not going to be able to sell now (or the near/mid term with everything happening) so he's decided to fix the mortgage and stay.

He is paying down the debt as he goes.

[DrBubb]

Barratt was first. Now Rightmove is singing in the same choir

House asking prices fall again
Monday 15th August 2011.

House asking prices in England and Wales have dropped for the second month in a row

House asking prices in England and Wales have fallen for the second month running and are now lower than a year ago, a report has said.

The average asking price for a home dropped 2.1% in August to £231,543 according to property website Rightmove, a fall that follows a 1.6% drop in July.

All regions registered a fall except Wales and Yorkshire and Humberside, which saw modest rises.

London, which has been the strongest regional housing market this year, saw the largest month-on-month fall at 3.4%.

Read more: http://www.shropshir.../#ixzz1V3IVKKsb

Let's hear what sort of notes the other chime in with


== ==

August’s sellers drop average asking prices by 2.1% (£5,054), and year-on-year prices edge down for  the first time since September 2009 (-0.3%).

• In the four years since the onset of the financial crisis asking prices have fallen by only 4.1% (£9,930).
• Impact of renewed financial turmoil likely to be limited because prices are already ‘bumping along the
bottom’ with low transaction levels, as:
- supply of new sellers remains muted at 30% below 2007 levels, as the number of motivated
sellers is broadly matched by the number of serious buyers;
- base rates now expected to be unchanged until at least 2013, limiting forced sales and holding
down mortgage rates for deposit-rich buyers.
• But there are still risks on the downside:
- increases in unemployment could stretch lender forbearance to breaking point;
- sovereign debt concerns could hit willingness to lend and freeze credit markets again.

/more: http://www.rightmove...august-2011.pdf