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Hong Kong property outlook - and Data Base


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#61 DrBubb

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Posted 18 June 2011 - 03:57 PM

The breakdown of Centa-city leading is suggesting big percentage down (-4.07%) on HK Island within the week.
Change on previous week
HK -4.07 %
KLN 0.74 %

SHKP and Hang Lung will have a challenge in getting the pricing of Imperial Cullinan and Long Beach right.

I think the rise in Kowloon last week suggests that there may be some good buying appetite there.

The market has slowly awakened to the fact that West Kowloon has many merits relative to certain parts of Hng Kong Island, such as (the grossly over-rated?) Mid-Levels. Try getting from ML to Central on a rainy day, and compare that with West Kowloon to Central by MTR.

(There ain't no comparison. And as people also realise that there are GOOD JOBS in ICC, WK slowly gains on the fading attractions of the over-crowded MLs.)
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#62 Thelliand

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Posted 20 June 2011 - 04:39 AM

First time I've seen real major warnings from the Property Developers, warning from Walter Kwok.

I guess after his fallout with his brothers allows him to speak his mind before those with direct interest:

H.K. Home Prices to Fall Up to 15%: Kwok
http://www.bloomberg...-this-year.html

#63 DrBubb

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Posted 21 June 2011 - 12:44 AM

First time I've seen real major warnings from the Property Developers, warning from Walter Kwok.

I guess after his fallout with his brothers allows him to speak his mind before those with direct interest:

H.K. Home Prices to Fall Up to 15%: Kwok
http://www.bloomberg...-this-year.html

A SPOILER?

Looks like "sour grapes" to me. Walter was booted out of the family firm, and this outburst might have been intended to undermine the launch of Imperial Cullinan this week. IC will be a very expensive project targetted at Mainland buyers and high-end HK based buyers. Kwok's comments may have been designed to destroy some of the potential demand. I imagine that his two brothers were very upset by the timing of such a forecast.

No respect to Walter Kwok, but I do not see how you get a meaningful correction when: Yields are at 3%, rents are rising, and interest rates are "stuck" near ultra-low levels of 1%. There's 2% sitting there to be gained, and it protects you from rising rents.

Rising rents is one factor Jake Van Der Kamp does not mention in this morning's SCMP column: "Thanks, but no thanks, Mr Wang":

"The single biggest reason that housing prices have gone so far up is that interest rates have been way down for an extended period. It is not our doing and there is nothing we can do about it. Breaking the peg to the US dollar would not solve the problem (nb: he says with no evidence?) although it would destabilise our economy.

The only other thing we might do is prohibit mainland money from buying property in Hong Kong but, even if we could block the flow of money this way, and this is highly doubtful, it would only force a correction at the luxury end of the market."
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#64 DrBubb

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Posted 24 June 2011 - 02:31 AM

The Property Buying Mania is not over yet in Hong Kong

Hong Kong has 1% of the world's Millionaires

So says the World Wealth Report from Merrill Lynch. HK gained at the fastest rate in the world last year, up 33.3percent to 101,300 US dollar millionaires. Globally, the rise was 8.5percent from 2009, to 10.9 million. And that means 1% live in Hong Kong.

Meanwhile, Asia surpassed Europe in the number of millionaires, leaving it second to North America.
--------------------

Maybe this helps to explain how Sun Hung Kai managed to nail down such great prices for Imperial Cullinan. Two penthouse flats there sold at very fancy prices this week:

+ 3,532sf flat (w/ private swimming pool), sold for HK$170 million - or HK$48,000 - a record for either Olympic or Kowloon station
+ 2,523sf flat (also with pool) sold for HK$120 million - that's HK$47,000 psf

Compare:
Imperial Cullinan's sister project Cullinan, at Kowloon Central is now priced at HK$25,566 psf

Adding the word "Imperial" seems to have done wonders for what was thought to be a less desirable location.

article: http://www.thestanda...type=1&pp_cat=1

My friend must be well pleased. $48,000 psf is darned close to the $50,000 target.

From my friend's window in Kowloon:
Looking down on: One of the most expensive flats in Asia ?
A local agent has told me that the Flat under construction in the photo is being offered (by SHKP) at HK$50,000 psf.
That's:
+ US$ 6,400 per sf
+ GBP 3,900 per sf
Hong Kong property prices are mad. Let's see if the builder can achieve anywhere near that.
Until a few months ago, the most expensive flat ever sold in Asia was HK$45,000 psf

Posted Image

He can now look down on the Mainland tycoon who paid that monster price, and wonder why a small swimming pool and the word "Imperial" can add so much to what might seem by him to be a less advantageous view.

Posted Image

Posted Image
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#65 DrBubb

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Posted 24 June 2011 - 06:20 AM

EXCERPT from Asia-Xpat, by Off-the-Peak:

"Transaction volumes, calls, and buyer purchase interest are really starting to dive from what I can see."

Maybe they are just holding onto their cash, awaiting "the Big Boys" - the last chance to buy West Kowloon properties on the sea. That's:

+ Long Beach (with 1,104 flats to sell - largest number in HK this year), and
+ Imperial Cullinan (with 650 flats, right next door)

One of the penthouses has just sold at $48,000 psf. Mid-Level purists take note - West Kowloon is zooming past you. (!)

Some folks who have never made the journey to West Kowloon maybe be journeying to the former "dark side" to find out what they have been missing.
UNQUOTE
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#66 DrBubb

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Posted 24 June 2011 - 07:26 AM

EXCERPT from Asia-Xpat, by Off-the-Peak:
Maybe they are just holding onto their cash, awaiting "the Big Boys" - the last chance to buy West Kowloon properties on the sea. That's:
+ Long Beach (with 1,104 flats to sell - largest number in HK this year), and
+ Imperial Cullinan (with 650 flats, right next door)

Here's what Hang Lung says in their 2010 Annual Report:

Posted Image
The Long Beach
"In 2007, with its tremendous harbor views and world class recreational facilities, 600 units in this prime residential development were sold in just two weeks. With the slowdown in the market, further sales were postponed and plans to market the second phase further sales were postponed and plans to market the second phase of the project were shelved during the current fiscal year. Though price levels recovered earlier year this year to reach 2007 levels, we are choosing to wait a little longer for the best opportunity to release phase two for sale.

The remaining five blocks, consisting of 1,234 unsold units, will be released in separate batches over the next few years, as the market picks up. We are fortunate in that we enjoy a strong net cash position. Coupled with our low gearing ratio, it gives us flexibility to accurately time the sale of our residential developments at the right price in the market."


Go Home now lists an Imperial Cullinan property:

1,700sf / Sale: HK$30mn : $17,647 psf

/see: http://www.gohome.co...en/?id=2395064#
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#67 DrBubb

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Posted 13 July 2011 - 12:03 PM

RACE TO RENT as Buyers retreat - say SCMP headline (in Property section)

"Flat hunters are finding it increasingly difficult to rent a home in Hong Kong as uncertainty about the market outlook means there are fewer buyers and more tenants."

+ Complaints about flats available being snapped up very quickly (within one day)
+ Buyers reluctant to buy, are seeking to rent instead (after seeing prices rises of 10pc or more in 2011)
+ Flats in places like Yuen Long have jumped in rents: from HK$8500-9000 range to HK$10000-12000
+ 42 pc of deals are sales, with the rest rentals, and in a more robust market 70pc might be sales
+ Overall rental index is now at HK$22.13, very close to its Sept.1997 high of HK$22.20

Article concludes saying that "summer is always the peak season for the residential leasing market"

(Perhaps because people find it easier to shift when children are out of school, and expats flood into new flats in August and Sept.)

== == ==

I think the agents are trying to talk price lower at the moment, because they are getting heavy resistance from buyers. But I do not think that rising rents are bearish for property. In 2008, before prices collapsed, there was first a big drop in rental demand, as expats left HK.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#68 DrBubb

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 07:28 AM

WHAT THE DEVIL ... will happen to HK's high property prices ?

Posted Image

Home prices rose last 24% last year and are up 12% so far this year as newly affluent mainland Chinese snap up apartments here.

According to a report by Demographia International, Hong Kong property, at 11.4 times gross median annual household income, is the most unaffordable in the world.

Nearly half the population lives in government or subsidised housing and buying their own home is out of reach for many residents.

Tycoon targeted

And discontent over unaffordable housing is fuelled by the belief that government policy favours powerful property developers over ordinary people.

Even billionaire tycoon Li Ka-shing, once feted by residents for his rags-to-riches life story, has become a target of protests.


Hong Kongers are voicing their dissatisfaction by taking to the streets
Earlier this year a group of young people camped outside the offices of his offices and protesters at the 1 July march carried placards that depicted Mr Li as a devil.

They resent the hold Mr Li's business empire has over the Hong Kong economy where it's often said that anyone living here cannot go though a day without spending money at one of his businesses.

His conglomerates have a dominant hand in key sectors including property development, retail, electricity generation and container ports.

"We remember the days when we called Li Ka-shing superman," says Ms Loh.

"There has been a fall from grace."

Measures

The government has acknowledged that the rising income gap is a problem and is taking some steps to address it, although progress is slow


/more: http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-14197240
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#69 DrBubb

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 07:30 AM

WHAT THE DEVIL ... will happen to HK's high property prices ?
Hong Kongers are voicing their dissatisfaction by taking to the streets
Earlier this year a group of young people camped outside the offices of his offices and protesters at the 1 July march carried placards that depicted Mr Li as a devil.

AFTER THOSE PROTESTS ... there was a brief selling panic

INDICES:
Index : Latest : Previous Week Previous Month
CCLI : 98.89 : - 1.40 % : - 0.81 %
MMLI: 95.33 : - 1.56 % : - 1.27 %
[CCLI = Centa-City Leading Index]
[MMLI= Mass Centa-City Leading Index]

Announced every Friday, latest on 2011/07/15; reflecting secondary residential property price from 2011/07/04 to 2011/07/10 (based on scheduled formal sale & purchase date, where formal and preliminary S&P date has a 14-day time lag on average)

Investors cut prices in rush to sell flats
Concerns about further government actions to cool a soaring market have investors rushing to realise gains ahead of a potential slump

Paggie Leung and Peggy Sito .. Jul 06, 2011 SCMP

Flat owners are cutting prices to unload their investment properties because they fear the government will launch more cooling measures on top of last month's tighter restrictions on mortgage loans.

Investor Jenny Chan has sold all her property investments - four flats in Mei Foo and an office unit in Mong Kok - during the past few months in anticipation of more measures to come.

"I have just kept one unit to live in. I do not know when the government will impose measures again, but prices are too high," Chan said. "I expect prices will drop sooner or later and I am waiting for another property cycle to begin again."

According to property agents, more owners of flats of all sizes had cut asking prices by between 5 and 8 per cent. Some had made even deeper cuts of more than 10 per cent, with the aim of offloading their property assets as soon as possible.

On Hong Kong Island, a 675 sq ft flat at Lei King Wan sold for HK$5.95 million. The flat owner originally asked for HK$6.5 million but cut the price by 8.5 per cent in the wake of the slow market activity. In Sha Tin, an investor sold his 395 sq ft flat at City One for HK$2.28 million - nearly 12 per cent lower than his original asking price of HK$2.59 million.

"It's getting more obvious that investors want to get rid of their properties as they worry that the government may launch more measures to curb soaring prices in the policy address in October," Century 21's Sha Tin regional manager Jessica Chow Suk-ping said.

"They want to realise their gains first, and then watch the market before they make their next move."

Last month, the government cut the maximum amount that banks could advance on a mortgage loan for homes valued above HK$10 million by 10 percentage points to 50 per cent of the property's value. For properties priced from HK$7 million to HK$10 million, the maximum loan-to-value ratio was lowered to 60 per cent from 70 per cent. Tougher mortgage restrictions were also imposed on non-resident borrowers.

Chow said the latest round of cooling measures had a stronger impact on sentiment than the previous round of measures in November, when the government introduced the additional stamp duty of up to 15 per cent on homes resold quickly.

"Last time, only one in 10 flat owners was willing to lower their asking price," she said. "But this time, half of them are cutting prices and they think flat prices may have already peaked. On the buyer's side, they want to bargain for the lowest price possible and about 90 per cent of them are end users."

Gary Lam Lung-nam, a senior district sales manager at Centaline Property Agency's North Point branch, said investors were stunned by the government's determination to curb price surges.

"At least 30 to 40 per cent of owners are taking the initiative to lower their asking prices by about 3 per cent at the beginning," he said. "But they are then willing to reduce prices further by as much as 7 to 10 per cent if buyers are willing to pay deposits by cheque because there aren't a lot of buyers in the market."

Lam said sellers with properties priced between HK$9 million and HK$11 million were most affected by the latest mortgage rules. For example, a client had cut the price of his 1,048 sq ft flat in North Point's City Garden by 8.8 per cent or HK$920,000. It eventually sold for HK$9.58 million.

With buyers and sellers retreating from the market, Ricacorp Properties said that from June 27 to July 3, there were only 146 secondary market flat sales in the 50 largest housing estates in Hong Kong it monitored. That was down 3 per cent on the 151 transactions of the previous week. That was the lowest figure since November 2005 after taking out Lunar New Year periods when the market is quieter.

Eight housing estates recorded no transactions during the week. They include Kornhill, Residence Oasis, Island Harbourview, Park Avenue, and Villa Esplanada.

Ricacorp director David Chan said although more sellers were cutting prices, buyers remained conservative. He said that since the market lacked clear drivers transaction volumes were likely to remain low this week.


/see: http://hongkong.asia...roperty-prices/
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#70 DrBubb

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 08:13 AM

Three luxury units unsold as caution grips punters

Karen Ha .. Thursday, July 07, 2011

Bidders turned cautious at an auction of luxury flats yesterday as the government's property curbs have started to bite.
Of the 10 flats that went under the hammer, three of them - two at Baguio Villa and one at Beverly Hills - were withdrawn after failing to win any bids.

Base price of the 10 flats ranged from HK$19 million to HK$21.3 million. The seven units that were sold managed to fetch a price that was 2 to 4 percent above the first bid.

"The bidders today were very cautious, partly because many are end users and some were first-timers at auctions," said Midland Surveyors director Alvin Lam Tsz-pun.

The auction lasted about three hours. A 2,330-square-foot unit at Baguio Villa in the southern district of Hong Kong Island - the first unit under the hammer - took about 10 minutes to receive five bids before it was sold for HK$24.8 million, or HK$10644 per sq ft, only 4.2 percent higher from the first bid.

Another flat at Baguio Villa took 20 minutes to draw four bids from the same person before the price exceeded the owner's reserve price. The 2,330 sq ft unit was sold for HK$24.7 million, or HK$10,601 psf.

A 1,707 sq ft flat on Mount Davis Road in Kennedy Town was sold for HK$29.7 million, or HK$17,399 psf, after going through 20 bids in more than 30 minutes.

The successful bidder, Sunil Nanda, said property prices in Hong Kong were skyrocketing.

"I do feel the market is high and there is limited upside in the near term. Property values both residential and commercial are far too high and not enough is being done by the administration to cool the market," Nanda said.

He added that the government should increase the land supply as a further cooling measure.

The seven units sold generated a total of HK$198.5 million.

/see: The Standard
http://www.thestanda...r=20110707&fc=7
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#71 DrBubb

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 08:17 AM

... some negative articles in the press recently ...

(1)
A rare bust in HK's property market boom

Following the government's recent measures to curb speculation, an investor is poised to lose over HK$2.5m, driving fears of a wider downturn
Peggy Sito and Sandy Li .. Jul 19, 2011

Hong Kong's property market is booming, yet a property investor has managed to make a rare loss, following the government's crackdown on the home loans market in June. ...

Lime Habitat investor who bought from SHKP in June 2009 for $25.38 mn, sold for a loss of $2.5 mn (ie $23.88mn) taking into account stamp tax and the agents commission.
(This was a 1,493 sf flat in North Point development.)

Amongst 15 resales, this was the first loss-making sale in Lime Habitat, a yet uncompleted development where 168 flats sold in June 2009 at an average price of $9,000. (Note how far the loss-making flat was ABOVE the average. $25.38 million / 1493 = $16,999 psf. Highend buyers cannot afford to be so reckless, and pay 88.8% over the average.)


(2)
Investors steering clear of property

Confidence among investors in Hong Kong housing drops 58pc, more than any other asset class, as soaring values price people out of the market
Charlotte So .. Jul 19, 2011

People are losing confidence in the Hong Kong property market after a rally that has enriched many investors but also made homes less affordable for average earners. ...

+ In Friends Provident survey - confidence in property fell more than other asset classes, from 12 points to 7 points on a scale of minus 100 to plus 100

+ Confidence in other assets fell too, but not as much

Flats in HK cost 11.4 times average annual income, compared with 5-6 times in London.
(But the article does not mention that HK investors pay less in tax, and "waste" less money on transport expenses.)
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#72 BradleyWong

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Posted 24 July 2011 - 12:20 AM

Did you see this?
http://www.thestanda...6999&con_type=1

Surprise 58 from Imperial Cullinan

Karen Ha / June 30, 2011

In a surprise move, Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) yesterday put another 58 flats at Imperial Cullinan on the market, pricing them much lower than the first batch.
But it was not poor sales that prompted the step from the developer.

"Almost [all] 73 flats of the first batch were sold on the first day of sale [yesterday]," Sun Hung Kai Real Estate Agency executive director Victor Lui Ting said.

"We have priced the newer flats lower because most of their views are not as nice as those in the first batch."

The newly available flats go on sale on Saturday at an average price of HK$15,982 per square foot - 14 percent lower than the first batch at HK$18,688 psf.

The price range is closer to nearby flats in the secondary market. The neighboring One Silver Sea project is priced around HK$15,000 to HK$16,000 psf.

Sales yesterday at Imperial Cullinan, atop Olympic MTR station, included a 2,523 square foot special unit bought by a mainlander for HK$108 million, or HK$42,806 psf.

- and this promotional event ?



- this is about the property itself



#73 DrBubb

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Posted 24 July 2011 - 01:57 AM

Did you see this?
http://www.thestanda...6999&con_type=1

Surprise 58 from Imperial Cullinan

Karen Ha / June 30, 2011

In a surprise move, Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) yesterday put another 58 flats at Imperial Cullinan on the market, pricing them much lower than the first batch.
But it was not poor sales that prompted the step from the developer.

"Almost [all] 73 flats of the first batch were sold on the first day of sale [yesterday]," Sun Hung Kai Real Estate Agency executive director Victor Lui Ting said.

"We have priced the newer flats lower because most of their views are not as nice as those in the first batch."

The newly available flats go on sale on Saturday at an average price of HK$15,982 per square foot - 14 percent lower than the first batch at HK$18,688 psf.

The price range is closer to nearby flats in the secondary market. The neighboring One Silver Sea project is priced around HK$15,000 to HK$16,000 psf.

Thanks.
Lower prices were needed - an the average flat at OSS has a better view than the average flat at IC, and that is especially true for the "inside" Towers. Only Tower 1 and Tower 8 at IC have good views.

MAP
Posted Image

SHKP has been using the usual developer trick of "talking up prices" before launch, and then launching at 10-15% less than "expected". I thought the talk of "$20,000 and higher" for Imperial Cullinan was ridiculous, when you can get very nice flats in The Long Beach for $10,000-12,000 psf. LB features a grand and more spacious clubhouse and residents' outdoor park, which in terms of everyday usability is miles better than the cramped affair at Imperial Cullinan, which I think is "over-branded."

Here's an earlier article from the original launch of IC:

W Kowloon luxury flats test price ceiling

Karen Ha .. Monday, June 27, 2011

Flats at a new luxury project in West Kowloon have been priced lower than expected - setting the market abuzz with talk that a price ceiling is in sight.
This follows new government measures to curb property prices earlier this month.

Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) will price the first 60 flats at Imperial Cullinan 15 percent lower than hinted last week.

This is the first major luxury project to go on the market since cooling measures were announced.

The first flats have been priced at an average HK$18,688 per square foot, as against HK$20,000 to HK$25,000 psf the developer hinted at a week ago.

The flats range from 1,583 sq ft to 1,848 sq ft, and are priced between HK$26.07 million and HK$44.48 million.

Last night SHKP put another 13 flats on the market. Twelve are between 1,848 sq ft and 1,860 sq ft, and are priced from HK$40.97 million to HK$46.68 million.

Another specialty flat, measuring 2,523 sq ft, is priced at HK$108 million, or HK$42,806 psf.

Sales of 73 flats will start on Wednesday and are expected to generate more than HK$2 billion for the developer.

"We usually offer the first batch of buyers a lower price," said Victor Lui Ting, executive director of Sun Hung Kai Real Estate Agency.

Imperial Cullinan comprises 650 flats above the Olympic MTR station. Neighboring flats on the secondary market, such as those at One Silver Sea, are priced around HK$14,500 psf.

Flats at The Cullinan - one of several luxury developments above Kowloon

MTR, which Sun Hung Kai said it would use as a reference for Imperial Cullinan - are selling for HK$24,398 psf on average.

Ricky Poon Wai-ki, executive director of residential sales at Colliers International, said of the HK$18,688 psf average: "It is a rather conservative pricing.

"With a price that is so close to the secondary flats in the neighborhoods, the developer could be switching from their initial targeted group of mainlanders to local homeowners who are seeking to upgrade."

But Eddie Hui Chi-man, deputy director of the Research Centre for Construction and Real Estate Economics at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, said it is too early to tell whether it indicates a softening of prices.

"Selling the flats lower than expected could be one of the tactics the developer uses to attract buyers," he said. "If the developer prices subsequent flats even lower, then that could be a sign.


/source: http://www.thestanda...3727&con_type=3
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#74 DrBubb

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Posted 24 July 2011 - 02:50 AM

... some negative articles in the press recently ...
(1)
A rare bust in HK's property market boom
(2)
Investors steering clear of property
Confidence among investors in Hong Kong housing drops 58pc, more than any other asset class, as soaring values price people out of the market
Charlotte So .. Jul 19, 2011

The next day's SCMP article was much less negative

(3)
RISE in home sales continues
Market sentiment shows signs of improving, but many analysts expect it to hover around the present level for some time

Home sales continue rebounding from a near six-year low a fortnight ago, as property market sentiment showed some signs of improving.

Ricacorp: "We are seeing buyers recover their confidence."

======= : secondhand sales
July 11-17 : 195 homes, in 50 estates
July 03-10 : 153 homes
previous - : 146 homes

NT : up 50% from 73 to 114.
Kowloon +4% from 56 to 58.
Island down from 24 to 23.

New homes: 62 sold, up from 57.
(65% of which were Imperial Cullinan.)
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#75 DrBubb

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Posted 08 August 2011 - 02:48 AM

Housing sales hit by falling stock market

"Housing sales in the secondary market dropped 23 per cent on the weekend as market sentiment was hit by tumbling stock prices around the globe and the announcement that the United States had lost its top-tier AAA credit rating from Standard&Poor's for the first time."

Hang Seng Index / HK1804580 ... Update: http://tinyurl.com/HSI610d
xx

"A total of 24 transactions were recorded at 10 major estates on Saturday and yesterday, down 23 percent from the previous week, according to estate agency Midland Realty.

Although there were no signs so far of panic selling, agents said owners had cut asking prices by as much as 13 per cent."

The article goes on to talk about:

+ An owner of a 1,029 sf flat at Taikoo Shing selling his flat for HK$10.4 million, or HK$10,107 per sf*, down from the original asking price of HK$12 million

+ Tomorrow's auction of a large luxury site at Sha Tin should be a good indicator of (builders') market sentiment - Expected price is HK$7- 9 billion.

== == ==

*I note that: the average selling price, as reported by Centaline was $9,855.94 psf : index : chart
(the old asking price seems far too high, so the reported "price drop" now looks exaggerated)
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#76 DrBubb

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Posted 11 August 2011 - 02:37 AM

CONFUSION? - Or Opportunity?

Bulls and Bears can both find some solace in the SCMP and HKS these days

BEARS might like this:
"Reacting to the negative sentiment, some wary local property investors had begun offering discounts of 5 to 10 percent on homes."
- Wed. SCMP, P1

"Stocks turmoil as new panic hits US, Europe."
- Thu. HKS, Pg1

BULLS might like these:
"... but there were no signs so far of bigger foreign investors seeking to sell their residential or commercial properties at discounted prices."
- Wed. SCMP, P1 (second part of sentence, above)

"Hong Kong is the number one destination for international businesses."
- Wed. SCMP, P1 (same article)

"Rents for luxury properties in Hong Kong have grown at twice the rate of the mass market thsi year as prospective buyers opt to lease instead..."
"...Rents for luxury residential flats had risen between 2pc and 3pc a month this year, compared with rises of between 1pc and 1.5pc in the mass market."
"Owners were now asking for rent increases of between 20 pc and 30 pc... and some expatriates were still willing to pay because they did not want to relocate."
- Wed. SCMP, P2

(Fed's decision)
"US Fed's low risk pledge is a double-edge prospect for HK"
"Hong Kong automatically inherits US interest rates. So if the Fed is going to keep its short term rate at zero for another two years, it means HK's own benchmark one month Hibor rate will stay someshere close to its current 0.22 per cent level until at least the middle of 2013. That's good news for anyone paying off a mortgage... This will support Hong Kong property prices."
- Thu. SCMP Monitor column, B10

YOU PAY YOUR MONEY, and you take your choice
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#77 DrBubb

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Posted 11 August 2011 - 03:18 AM

PRICE CUTS NOT REAL - only the press are falling for the "discounts"... until now.

HK Standard has reported this sensibly, thank goodness

Examples of overpricing can easily be found around the market. A flat owner chopped HK$2 million - or 14 percent - off the asking price before selling a 1,176-square-foot unit at City Garden in North Point for HK$11 million, or HK$9,354 per square foot.

The discount may seem big, but neighboring flats sold recently at HK$9,047 psf on average. That mean
s the new owner of the flat actually paid 3.3 percent higher than market price.

Another homeowner lopped HK$340,000, or 7.4 percent, off before selling an 846-sq-ft apartment at Belvedere Garden in Tsuen Wan for HK$4.26 million, or HK$5,035 psf. Neighboring flats are priced at an average of HK$4,830 psf - meaning this purchaser shelled out 4.2 percent more.

"The price slashing is not really real, and it cannot truly reflect the decrease in property prices, which is only around 5 percent from the start of the year," Hui said


/more: http://www.thestanda...e=3&d_str=&fc=7
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#78 DrBubb

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Posted 28 August 2011 - 12:10 AM

Better than Oil Street?

13 developers bid for station project
26-08-2011

A total of 13 developers have submitted bids for a property project above Nam Cheong Station. The MTR Corporation said the market response was satisfactory. It's expected to announce the tender result next month. Last year, the MTRC scrapped a previous tendering exercise, after only three developers competed for the site. The residential and commercial site is estimated to be worth between HK$13.2 and HK$21.1 billion. It will provide 3,300 flats.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#79 DrBubb

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Posted 28 August 2011 - 01:07 AM

This Lady's not for turning...

Posted Image

Not in West Kowloon and not yet. Prices were released yesterday: 26 Aug. 2011
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#80 DrBubb

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Posted 28 August 2011 - 11:47 PM

13 developers bid for station project
26-08-2011
A total of 13 developers have submitted bids for a property project above Nam Cheong Station.

Looking back...

MTR kicks off tender process for Nam Cheong station project

22 April 2010 - South China Morning Post

The MTR Corp yesterday kicked off the tender process for the HK$33 billion Nam Cheong station commercial and residential project, in line with the government's policy of releasing more sites to cool the overheated property market.

A spokesman for the railway operator said the company would invite developers to submit expressions of interest today.

Developers will have until next Thursday to show their interest.

The project on top of the station in Sham Shui Po is close to two public housing estates - Fu Cheong Estate and Nam Cheong Estate. The 6.2-hectare site could house nine 7- to 9-storey low-rise and nine 42- to 46-storey high-rise residential buildings with a 287,732 square foot shopping centre. It could provide 3,300 units with a total residential floor area of 2.96 million sqft and is scheduled for completion in 2016.

The MTR is negotiating the land premium with the Lands Department. The firm estimated the project's total investment cost, including the land premium levy and construction cost, at about HK$33 billion.

As the project will be developed in two phases, the developer could pay the premium in two stages.

According to Centaline Property Agency data, property prices at the seven-year-old Metro Harbour View (MHV) range between HK$4,964 and HK$5,137 per square foot.


( Today: MHV : $7,074.75 psf - chart )
== ==

(2)
26 May 2010 - The Standard

Only three developers have submitted tenders for the HK$33 billion residential- commercial development atop Nam Cheong station near Cheung Sha Wan.

Cheung Kong Holdings (0001), Henderson Land (0012) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) were the only bidders although 12 developers expressed interest earlier.

``Given the project's large scale, high investment, numerous market choices, we find having three tenders very satisfactory and within our expectations,'' said MTR Corp (0066) property director Thomas Ho Hang-kwong.

...The premium for the first phase of 1,900 flats alone will amount to a record HK$13 billion, or an accommodation value of about HK$6,500 per square foot given a gross floor area of over 1.9 million sq ft.

Ho expects the winning developer, which will be announced as soon as possible, to begin the second phase two years later after construction work for the high-speed rail finishes.

(3)
Hong Kong Cancels Tender For Nam Cheong Station Property Project
28 May 2010

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--The tender for the property project located above Nam Cheong station in Hong Kong's Sham Shui Po district has been canceled, Nam Cheong Property Development Ltd., the government-backed company overseeing project, said Friday, without providing a reason for the cancellation.

Analysts said the cancellation suggests developers might have had reservations about making a massive investment in the Nam Cheong project when the government is scheduled to auction a prime site in Ho Man Tin in Kowloon in June and another high-end site on The Peak in July.

The HK$33 billion project drew tenders from blue-chip developers Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. (0016.HK), Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd. (0001.HK) and Henderson Land Development Ltd. (0012.HK).

'This will be interpreted as a negative signal (for the property market),' said David Ng, the head of regional property research at Royal Bank of Scotland. 'But the withdrawal may also suggest developers weren't satisfied with the share of the profits they would have got from the project.'


(4)
China Real Time: Has the Tide Turned on Hong Kong Property?

2 June 2010 - Wall Street Journal

Many Hong Kongers are holding their breaths for a dive in property prices after government moves to cool the market and after two sites were auctioned off at disappointing prices. But will a drop really happen?

A mild correction, yes. But the likelihood for any major near-term price decline is very small.

Some argue that the tide has changed after two recent auctions fetched lower-than-expected prices. The real-estate market was dealt a further blow after a mega high-end property project at Hong Kong's Nam Cheong subway station was withdrawn by the government due to unattractive bids.

But how indicative are these transactions? Not very, according to surveyors and market watchers.

Sites sold at recent auctions were situated in noncore areas near the airport of the Lantau Island and Fanling district of Hong Kong's New Territories. Both drew only mild interests from small- and mid-sized developers because their locations are not well suited to luxury homes. Developments that fail to generate lucrative premiums aren't coveted by big builders these days.

The massive residential/commercial project at Nam Cheong station has the ideal location for high-end homes, but it carries a hefty land premium of 13 billion Hong Kong dollars ($1.67 billion), or nearly HK$6,600 ($847) a square foot,
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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