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Gold "remembers September"... and is headed back


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 01:17 AM

Gold "remembers September"... and is headed back (near there)
An Old Gap from early October attracts the price
===================================

GLD / Gold etf ... update : GDX-last6mos


The JUMP, that left a GAP behind

Monday 4 October : GLD / Closing: $128.46 ( Open: 128.52 / High: 128.62 / Low: 128.22 // Volume: 8,367,916 )
Tuesday 5 October: GLD / Closing: $130.99 ( Open: 130.11 / High: 131.12 / Low: 129.87 // Volume: 17,489,513 )

THE OCTOBER GAP: 128.62 - 129.87

High price in September was: $128.28 / High of Sept. 30th
The gap lies just above that price.

It will be interesting to see if the Oct. 5th Gap stops the price slide in GLD.
The 144d.MA is near there, and that has been support for many Gold price drops.

If this support fails, and early, lower GAP in early September looms
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 Carlton

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 03:38 AM

QUOTE
If this support fails, and early, lower GAP in early September looms


The gap near $121-123?
"After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" --Jesse Livermore

#3 Happy Nihilist

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 09:08 AM

Interesting chart by Gary Tanashian




Might be worth keeping an eye on ?

If these correlations repeat, suggests that in the short term, Gold might be close to finding support ($1250-$1300 / gap 1 or 2?) and begin to trade inversely with the general market, as the general market begins to roll over ... a possible breakout in the Gold:Silver ratio would signal another round of (disorderly) liquidation.

Will be interesting to see how the yellow metal behaves if we do see another round of de-leveraging. I suspect if Europe is the catalyst for liquidation II, that the metal may hold up fairly well, and could even see it spike to new highs (as per Ross Clark's forecast)?
"Have these genealogists of morals had even the remotest suspicion that, for example, the major moral concept Schuld [guilt] has its origin in the very material concept Schulden [debts]?" - Nietzsche, On the Genealogy of Morals

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 09:55 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 25 2011, 09:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
THE GAP: 128.62 - 129.87
. . .
It will be interesting to see if the Oct. 5th Gap stops the price slide in GLD.
The 144d.MA is near there, and that has been support for many Gold price drops.

Tom Obrien and Larry Pesavento both think that Gold may break this nearby support and drop below $1300 well into the $1200's.

Tom's main argument is the WEAKNESS he is seeing in Gold stocks. And I see that too.

GDX / etf for Major Gold stocks ... 2yr-GDX : update/3yr-GDX : 5yr-GDX


Once again, the 252d.MA seems to be sitting as potential support for Gold stocks, while the 144d.MA is providing equivalent potential support for Gold/GLD. This pairing of support levels has generated decent rallies in the past.

A break of GDX-$50 on volume could powerfully blow away the possibility of nearby support, and put severe stress on the Piper and his followers. (The next major support could be about GDX-$45, the 200wk-MA.)

Nevertheless, I am prepared to buy Gold and Gold shares, if the support kicks in there.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 10:09 AM

QUOTE (Carlton @ Jan 25 2011, 11:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The gap near $121-123?

Yes.
ANd that would correspond to another $100 or so down from where Gold is now
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 DrBubb

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 10:12 AM

QUOTE (Happy Nihilist @ Jan 25 2011, 05:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Interesting chart by Gary Tanashian

Might be worth keeping an eye on ?

A great chart. Worth following here.

It reminds me of the pattern that Jim Puplava and Frank Barbera spoke about.
And most amazing of all, he mentioned Yogi Bear, or was it Yogi Berra ?

(Frank himself is "smarter than the average Bear", I reckon.)
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 Happy Nihilist

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 10:20 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 25 2011, 08:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Tom Obrien and Larry Pesavento both think that Gold may break this nearby support and drop below $1300 well into the $1200's.

Tom's main argument is the WEAKNESS he is seeing in Gold stocks. And I see that too.

GDX / etf for Major Gold stocks ... 2yr-GDX : update/3yr-GDX : 5yr-GDX


Once again, the 252d.MA seems to be sitting as potential support for Gold stocks, while the 144d.MA is providing equivalent potential support for Gold/GLD. This pairing of support levels has generated decent rallies in the past.

A break of GDX-$50 on volume could powerfully blow away the possibility of nearby support, and put severe stress on the Piper and his followers. (The next major support could be about GDX-$45, the 200wk-MA.)

Nevertheless, I am prepared to buy Gold and Gold shares, if the support kicks in there.



Weakness in Gold stocks can be neatly summed by the following chart:




I agree, "if" support breaks at 144 / 252 dma, the correction could turn nästy (especially in stocks).

If I'm reading the volume on your chart correctly, then in such a scenario GDX could drop to ca. $40 level? For what its worth, there is a similar channel in Gold as the one you've drawn on GDX, with support currently around $1300.



"Have these genealogists of morals had even the remotest suspicion that, for example, the major moral concept Schuld [guilt] has its origin in the very material concept Schulden [debts]?" - Nietzsche, On the Genealogy of Morals

#8 DrBubb

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 11:41 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 25 2011, 09:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Gold "remembers September"... and is headed back (near there)
An Old Gap from early October attracts the price
===================================
THE GAP: 128.62 - 129.87

That did not take long !

GBS.L / Gold Bullion Securities ... update


GBS.L : $129.19 Change: -1.87 // Percent Change: -1.43%
Open: 129.58 High: 129.58 Low: 128.73 // Volume: 14,503

Happy N.:
I agree, "if" support breaks at 144 / 252 dma, the correction could turn nästy (especially in stocks).

If I'm reading the volume on your chart correctly, then in such a scenario GDX could drop to ca. $40 level? For what its worth, there is a similar channel in Gold as the one you've drawn on GDX, with support currently around $1300.


We are nearly there - to the bottom of the gap.
With very little volume in GBS.L so far.
The Gold price has dipped to $1323 or so.

This chart : GOLD Weekly ... update / should help identify key support levels


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 G0ldfinger

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 08:07 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 25 2011, 11:12 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It reminds me of the pattern that Jim Puplava and Frank Barbera spoke about.
And most amazing of all, he mentioned Yogi Bear, or was it Yogi Berra ?

(Frank himself is "smarter than the average Bear", I reckon.)

But he was dead-wrong on gold recently and missed out on all the recent up move.

That's what happens if you focus too much on technical noise.

Fundamentals rule in the end. You got to be in it to win it.
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
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Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#10 DoctorSolar

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 08:56 PM

QUOTE (Happy Nihilist @ Jan 25 2011, 09:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Interesting chart by Gary Tanashian

Nice to see someone else who likes Gary's blog.

Gary is 50/50 on whether gold stocks are now an epic opportunity or will soon blow up the whole bullish scenario.

He is buying quality gold stocks here so is erring on the side of epic opportunity.

Will be an interesting few weeks.

#11 denarii

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 10:13 PM

1300 plus or minus 25 bucks in my view is more or less the bottom considering you are unlikely to bottom tick it.

#12 DrBubb

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Posted 26 January 2011 - 12:55 AM

QUOTE (denarii @ Jan 26 2011, 06:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
1300 plus or minus 25 bucks in my view is more or less the bottom considering you are unlikely to bottom tick it.

If I buy "for a low" here, it will be mainly with options.
I admit to doing some nibbling already. But it seems too many people want to jump in at this first important support level.

In fact, we saw it touched yesterday. To me, a retest of lower low seems likely.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 DoctorSolar

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Posted 26 January 2011 - 01:02 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 26 2011, 12:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
If I buy "for a low" here, it will be mainly with options.
I admit to doing some nibbling already. But it seems too many people want to jump in at this first important support level.

In fact, we saw it touched yesterday. To me, a retest of lower low seems likely.


Nice call on the GDXJ island reversal signal projecting a downside target of 32 which was hit today...

#14 DrBubb

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Posted 26 January 2011 - 03:19 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 25 2011, 05:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Tom's main argument is the WEAKNESS he is seeing in Gold stocks. And I see that too.

GDX / etf for Major Gold stocks ... 2yr-GDX : update/3yr-GDX : 5yr-GDX


Once again, the 252d.MA seems to be sitting as potential support for Gold stocks, while the 144d.MA is providing equivalent potential support for Gold/GLD. This pairing of support levels has generated decent rallies in the past.

By comparison, here's the chart for:

GDXJ / the etf for Junior Gold Miners ... update-1year : chart-6mos : 3months :: GDXJvsGDX


Notice how GDXJ (and GDX too!) peaked a full month before gold prices. Perhaps Gold shares will bottom first too.
There is a possibility that GDXJ bottomed on Monday, but I now think it is more likely that it will go to at least the next support level, which is GDXJ-$31 or so.

I also like this comparison of GDXJ with Silver/SLV and GDX ... update


GDXJ had a similar rise to Silver/SLV, and is how leading it lower
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 Tune2001

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Posted 26 January 2011 - 10:07 AM

Mervyn King's comments could be putting a floor in GOLD/GBP at about 840?
http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-12282405

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p63439692714





#16 PositiveDeviant

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Posted 26 January 2011 - 12:25 PM

I don't know if anyone follows Charles Nenner but he is extremely pessimistic about the price of gold. He has purchased Gold put options and is expecting the price of gold could hit $1000...

www.charlesnenner.com


"A man who is all caution, will never dare to take hold and be successful; and a man who is all boldness, is merely reckless, and must eventually fail. A man may go on "'change" and make fifty, or one hundred thousand dollars in speculating in stocks, at a single operation. But if he has simple boldness without caution, it is mere chance, and what he gains to-day he will lose to-morrow. You must have both the caution and the boldness, to insure success."
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#17 DrBubb

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Posted 26 January 2011 - 01:19 PM

QUOTE (Perishabull @ Jan 26 2011, 08:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I don't know if anyone follows Charles Nenner but he is extremely pessimistic about the price of gold. He has purchased Gold put options and is expecting the price of gold could hit $1000...
www.charlesnenner.com

I find that interesting.

I think there's a fair chance that Puplava et al will be wrong again in being so complacent about falling Gold prices.
I am glad I have moved so strongly into cash, despite the crap I took from some GEI members for suggesting lightening up.

I sold gold twice since I started the "XX" thread, at an average price of about $1325, and then lightened up on GLW.t and other Gold shares as prices moved higher. I am happy with those decisions now.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#18 ecoface

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Posted 26 January 2011 - 05:14 PM

QUOTE (Perishabull @ Jan 26 2011, 12:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I don't know if anyone follows Charles Nenner but he is extremely pessimistic about the price of gold. He has purchased Gold put options and is expecting the price of gold could hit $1000...

www.charlesnenner.com


Is Mr Nenner then expecting the dollar index to rally quite nice too, thus compound the POG fall?

I can see that an equity market correction could create a flight to dollar safety (oxymoron), then push up the Index, and intrinsically weaken POG in $.

I expect POG in £ to not correct by anything like the same margin BTW.

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#19 PositiveDeviant

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Posted 26 January 2011 - 07:09 PM

This is Gold divided by the Dollar index



The area of support seems to be 16.75 - 17, if it closes below 16.75 that may AUgur further downside

"A man who is all caution, will never dare to take hold and be successful; and a man who is all boldness, is merely reckless, and must eventually fail. A man may go on "'change" and make fifty, or one hundred thousand dollars in speculating in stocks, at a single operation. But if he has simple boldness without caution, it is mere chance, and what he gains to-day he will lose to-morrow. You must have both the caution and the boldness, to insure success."
PT Barnum

"When I look back on all these worries, I remember the story of the old man who said on his deathbed that he had had a lot of trouble in his life, most of which had never happened."
Winston Churchill

"I am an old man and have known a great many troubles, but most of them never happened."
Mark Twain

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Curtis Faith

"The primary thing required to obtain what you want from life, is simply the will to pursue it, and the faith to believe it is possible."
Author Unknown

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Mao Zedong



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#20 DrBubb

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Posted 27 January 2011 - 12:32 AM

GAP (at 128-129) filled, market rallies
QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 25 2011, 07:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Gold "remembers September"... and is headed back (near there)
An Old Gap from early October attracts the price
THE GAP: 128.62 - 129.87

== ==
That did not take long !

GBS.L / Gold Bullion Securities ... update


GBS.L : $129.19 Change: -1.87 // Percent Change: -1.43%
Open: 129.58 High: 129.58 Low: 128.73 // Volume: 14,503

GLD: 131.16 Change: +1.06 // Percent Change: +0.81%
Open: 129.83 High: 131.17 Low: 129.28 // Volume: 20,547,678

That may have been THE low, but that is not my preferred case.
I reckon that we could see a rally to that "overhead" gap, and then a retest or lower.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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