78 replies to this topic

[Odd Job]

Greetings,

Thought I'd try keeping a journal here on GEI.. There's a lot of knowledgeable people here so I look forward to hearing any advice and tips.

About Myself
My background is in IT, although I do have an MBS.

Attitude to Investing
Up to now I've been a saver. I'm relatively new to stocks / shares. Only been dipping my toes in every now and again.. This is my first major foray. I'm not interested in day trading. My initial strategy has been to look for stocks which I think will be worth more in 3-5 years time. I'm a ponderous decision maker.

Starting Position
Have only one investment so far. The details are below. I've copied and pasted it from an earlier thread.

Invested in an explorer called A-CAP Resources (ASX:ACB) 2 weeks ago. Its the only Uranium stock I've bought into. Really like this one. Spent days researching it

Why I like it:

- Current JORC resource is 158m lb.. The chairman said recently that this may double in the next resource update which will be announced "early 2011". This will have a big impact on the shareprice when announced..
- Low extraction costs. Unlike other Uranium mines ACAP's resource is sitting in the top 70 metres. In Sep the chairman announced costs will be lower than $30/lb.. This is much cheaper than other producers. Uranium will be mined in open pits. Using radiometric sorting and heap leach extraction the costs will be low.
- There are roads, train lines and power supply right beside the resource.
- ACAP has only explored 20% of its tenements.. 80% to go. This could turn out to be one of the top undeveloped uranium resources in the world. It's already in top 20.
- Not taking into account the next resource upgrade, ACAP's uranium is currently valued at 58c /lb (rough back of beer mat calc). Similar explorers are valued at $2/lb. Uranium producers are valued at $10/lb..
- The company operates in a mining friendly country - Botswana.
- Likely to apply for mining license mid 2011
- Likely to start producing in 2012/2013

Bought ACAP at 0.575 a couple of weeks ago.

I've contacted the company to get an update on their timelines for completion of their feasability studies. Couldn't find up to date info anywhere..

[Odd Job]

Quick Update:

At time of writing this spot uranium is up 2.8% to $65.30.
- Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=MFURMDUR:IND

ACB: Bit of a selloff on Wednesday which I think was due to investors getting their shares from ACB's Share Purchase Plan.  I'm up 5% overall.

Must look at Stonehenge Metals Ltd as a possible addition to my portfolio..

[Odd Job]

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.."

I can't help but feel that I've started investing in stocks at the worst time.. I feel like a movie extra who makes his appearance in the movie just as the disaster is about to unfold.   With this in mind, I plan on averaging into the market over time. I will start off investing on a monthly basis.

Homework
I spent some time looking into Stonehenge Metals Ltd over the past week. It didn't look as good as I initially thought when I first came across the stock.

I also started looking into another company called Mosquito Consolidated Gold. From first impression I really like the look of this stock.
- It possibly has the largest unmined molybdenum deposit in the world..
- Construction could begin in 2014 (suits my investment timeframe)
- Demand v Supply looks good.. But what will it be like in 2015?

I'm begining to get a good "gut" feeling about this one...Well its good enough to make me want to study it a bit more. I have lots more research to do. Anybody have any thoughts on this one? Perhaps someone on here has already invested in this?

Current Investment: A-CAP Resources

ACAP is still doing well.. I'm up 10%

I've put together a list of milestones that I see this year for the stock :

Q1 2011 - Resource Upgrade (I expect to somewhere around 200m lb )
Q3 2011 - Completion of Environmental Feasability Study
Q3 2011 - Application for mining
Q3 2011 - Resource Upgrade (additional drilling between the Gjowane and Serule) (I hope to somewhere around 250 m lb )
Q4 2011 - Completion of Bank Feasability Study
Q4 2011 - Acceptance of mining application (should take approx 1 month from application -By a very efficient Botswana Mining Ministry..)
Q4 2011 - Further updates regarding the MOU with KORES.

I'll try to keep this updated as events unfold.

[Odd Job]

I spent some time looking into Stonehenge Metals Ltd over the past week. It didn't look as good as I initially thought when I first came across the stock.

Doh.. Only 1 day after I write this, it jumps 17% on no news. Perhaps I should have looked into it a bit more.

Don't mind so much as ACB had a good night (up 8%) - I'm now up 18% on my own investment.

[John Doe]

Doh.. Only 1 day after I write this, it jumps 17% on no news. Perhaps I should have looked into it a bit more.

Don't mind so much as ACB had a good night (up 8%) - I'm now up 18% on my own investment.

It sounds like you are looking at some quite volatile areas. I would have started with more stable areas, however, you seem to have done your research.

18% up is eq to ~5 or 6 years interest in a standard savings account today, so good work.

[riggerbeautz]

[I can't help but feel that I've started investing in stocks at the worst time.. I feel like a movie extra who makes his appearance in the movie just as the disaster is about to unfold.   With this in mind, I plan on averaging into the market over time. I will start off investing on a monthly basis.

Hello Oddjob, Just to say I wish you well and with an approach like that, I think you stand a chance of surviving better than many.

[Odd Job]

It sounds like you are looking at some quite volatile areas. I would have started with more stable areas, however, you seem to have done your research.

18% up is eq to ~5 or 6 years interest in a standard savings account today, so good work.

Hello Oddjob, Just to say I wish you well and with an approach like that, I think you stand a chance of surviving better than many.

Thanks for your posts guys. 18% is obviously a good return in only 3 weeks but I do hope to hold my stock for at least 3 years.. I don't see ACAP as being volatile to be honest. Each share I own in ACAP is equivalent to 1 lb of uranium located over in some sandy desert in Botswana. After watching presentations/reading several articles, it sounds like one can just head over with a bucket and spade and dig this stuff up. I'd probably also bring a six-pack of beer with me as I'm sure it would get quiet hot..

Did a bit of homework on Mosquito today, and I still like it. I'm going to wait another 1 or 2 weeks before buying anything but this one is top of my list so far.. Some comments I jotted down are:

Mosquito Consolidated Gold
- 100% ownership of the biggest unmined open pit Moly mine. Judging by some charts I saw it's resources are HUGE compared to others.
- Estimated $75 bn dollars in recoverable material. Company currently valued at $69m
- Suits my investment timeline.. 3-5 years
- Could be the Ryanair of Moly? Low cost due to economies of scale. Expect operating cost to be 50% lower than rivals.
- Diversified resources. Exposure to Mo, Cu, Au, Ag, Re, W
- Only 25% of its resource area has been explored.
- Mine Life 113 years ( I can hand this one down to my great grand children)
- Management team seem professional. Everything I've seen from the company looks like it was professsionally done. I even like the comapny website.

I must confess that I don't know much about "Moly" and its demand/supply, but if one can produce something cheaper than all your competitors then you're surely going to be successful !?!

[littledavesab]

Hi Odd Job.   welcome.    Ponderous decision maker - can be good and bad in that (speaking as one who knows).

Averaging in is an approach I also use.  Especially on the AIM / smaller cap type stuff.    Having said that, AIM seems to have discovered its turbo boost over the last six months so might have to consider adapting to new circumstances.

I can admit to having a small portfolio of AIM stuff some of which I leave alone and some of which I top up when they have been beaten up and feel ripe for a turn.

[Odd Job]

Hi Odd Job.   welcome.    Ponderous decision maker - can be good and bad in that (speaking as one who knows).

I usually drive Mrs Odd Job crazy. I'm not as bad as my father though... Once when I was out shopping with him for an egg timer, he pulled out a stop watch to make sure that the egg timers exactly timed 3 minutes...  

Mosquito is down 5% so far today.. The stock kinda reminds of an ugly red head sitting in the corner alone at a party.. Nobody is interested*.  I hope Mosquito's slide continues until I get in...

*Quip borrowed from Micheal O'Leary..

Last minute Homework:

Must research Passport Potash..

[riggerbeautz]

I also started looking into another company called Mosquito Consolidated Gold. From first impression I really like the look of this stock.
- It possibly has the largest unmined molybdenum deposit in the world..
- Construction could begin in 2014 (suits my investment timeframe)
- Demand v Supply looks good.. But what will it be like in 2015?

I'm begining to get a good "gut" feeling about this one...Well its good enough to make me want to study it a bit more. I have lots more research to do. Anybody have any thoughts on this one? Perhaps someone on here has already invested in this?

On my watchlist now, thanks.

Keep an eye out here http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/mo/mo.asp

[Odd Job]

On my watchlist now, thanks.

I really like the look of that monster Moly stock, but I'm going to leave it until next month. While researching Mosquito I had a "random walk" and came across a Potash junior called Passport Potash (CVE:PPI). I spent the past 2 days looking into it and I'm going with this one. I'll post my thoughts on it later..

Its a gamble in the short-term.. If as I hope/expect, it gets good Potash results  within its territory, then this will be much higher in 3-5 years. Passport holds about 14% of an area called the Holbrook Basin in AZ which may have as much as 2 billion tonnes of Potash. A report from circa 1960 shows lots of Potash in Passport's territory. The company is awaiting its first drilling results soon. Mkt Cap is about $14m.

[Odd Job]

Odd Job's Weekly Reflection #2

“I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it.” Thomas Jefferson

So far so good..Last week I was worried that I entered the stock market at the wrong time. One week later, I see that the stock markets are still ticking along. When I first bought into ACAP in December I was waiting for the bad news.. Waiting for wikileaks to announce something that would bring down the banking system or maybe the collapse of Europe. It would just be my luck. My investment survived another week.

Another Month, another Stock
I'm sticking with my plan to invest in one stock each month. This month I've bought shares in Passport Potash (CVE:PPI). I came across this stock when I was researching Mosquito. I just happened to come across an article by Bob Moriarty which promoted this stock. After doing my own research, I decided to buy this ahead of Mosquito this month. I'm attracted by the growth potential and aggressiveness of the stock. I would just like to reiterate that I still like Mosquito (the "Moly Monster") and will invest in it in the future -perhaps next month. While my investment in Passport is for 3-5 years, I think Passport will have an immediate jump in the next few months.

Some notes I've made regarding Passport are below.

Passport Potash (CVE:PPI)
- Small cap stock ($14m)
- In Dec they started their final drilling program aimed at coming up with their resource estimate. The estimate is expected soon.
- Control approx 14% of potash in the Hollbrook Basin. They have 87 sections of land which amounts to 87 square miles.
- A report issued in the 60's identifies a huge potash deposit in the Hollbrook Basin.
- The company seems to be agressive in growing the land it controls in the basin
- I've seen an estimate of 27m tonnes in Passports land. Its as good a guess as any.
- Read a doc written by Arkla Exploration Co. written in 1960 which estimated after drilling that the Hollbrook Basin may have 2.5 billion tonnes of Potash. Can't rely on this figure, but shows that there is likely to be a big potash resource in the area.
- Perhaps this stock will be bought by someone bigger? Or perhaps there will a JV approach to development of the Hollbrook Basin to save on costs?

ACAP weekly review
- My first and favorite stock continues to climb. Volume up. Price up. I'm up 30% so far. Uranium price is also up.
- A-CAP doens't usually make an appearance in the news so it was good to see this: Picking Uranium Winners
- I'm hoping to see the release of the next resource upgrade soon.


All in all a good week. Hopefully, I'll be as upbeat in my next weekly review.. If I have another good run next week, I'll quit my day job and take up investing full-time...

[Odd Job]

Odd Job's Weekly Reflection #3

“All human wisdom is summed up in two words - wait and hope” ...Dumas

Waiting and hoping is all I've done this week. Waiting for resource announcements and hoping they'll be good ! Mrs Odd Job treated us to a weekend of hot stone massages and mud treatments so I didn't have much time or inclination to do any research. I've also decided to stick with my day job.. My portfolio didn't do as well as I would have hoped.. Had lots of red days.

A-CAP Resources
The lovely ACAP dropped over the past week. I think the exuberance of past weeks wore off and people took some profits. A resource upgrade is expected within Q1 2011, so I think the market is waiting for this.

Passport Potash
My little aggressive potash company had an eventful week. They company was represented at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference and its website was redesigned. I think the guys they hired to design the website are amateurs... The day before a big investment conference I visited the new site and noticed that they had spelt potash - "Pothash". Come on.. There were also broken links and other mistakes in different pages. The site can be viewed at: www.passportpotash.com

Portfolio So Far:
A-CAP Resources (Up 23%)
Passport Potash (Up 2%)
Overall (Up 21%)

Starting next week, Odd Job's Weekly Review will be written at the weekend.

[Odd Job]

ACAP released a Q4 update today. I've updated my timelines with the new information:

Q1 2011 - Global Resource Upgrade (I expect to somewhere around 200m lb ). Due end of Feb/begining of March.
Q1 2011 - Update regarding exploratory drilling between Gorgon South and Serule West
Q2 2011 - Results of metallurgical testwork
Q3 2011 - Completion of Environmental Impact Assessment
Q3 2011 - Application for mining
Q3 2011 - Resource Upgrade (additional drilling between the Gjowane and Serule) (I hope to somewhere around 250 m lb )
Q4 2011 - Completion of Bank Feasability Study
Q4 2011 - Acceptance of mining application (should take approx 1 month from application -By a very efficient Botswana Mining Ministry..)
Q4 2011 - Further updates regarding the MOU with KORES.

[DrBubb]

Oddjob,

A thread like this is a great way to learn from your mistakes (and your victories too),
since when you post something, you cannot change your mind about WHY you bought or sold.

Good luck with it !

[Odd Job]

Oddjob,

A thread like this is a great way to learn from your mistakes (and your victories too),
since when you post something, you cannot change your mind about WHY you bought or sold.

Good luck with it !

Thanks DrBubb.  Never thought of it that way... If things go bad I won't be able to hide from my mistakes

I have new homework for this week. The following companies have piqued my interest and deserve some study:

Gasfrac Energy Services (Another GEI poster mentioned it in the Oil/Gas forum.. I like the story behind it and I think it deserves some more research)
Peninsula Energy (Keep hearing good reports about this..)
Impact Minerals Ltd (ACAPs neighbour in Botswana.. )
Greenland Minerals and Energy (another potential Mosquito - big resources, big timelines..)

[Odd Job]

February Stock Pick

Acquired some shares in Gasfrac Energy Services today. This will be my stock for February. I see it as an innovative company whose technology will be in demand -partly because of its green credentials but also because it can save on costs. While the company seems to be making a good deal of money at the moment, I believe its future rests in securing the patents it currently has under application.

Some more notes I made:

Gasfrac Energy Services (GFS)
- Innovative new fracturing technique using LPG as a fracture fluid instead of water/petroleum
- Technology has a number of patents pending
- The company goes on to say that although the upfront costs for specialized equipment are more than for the current hydrofracking techniquew, drilling companies will recover the additional cost because the gas reservoirs are more productive and the drilling process cleans up more quickly, with less flaring.
- Technology is more environmentally friendly than other methods of fracking
- Accounts look good - making money, revenue up.
- Currently building equipment to double capacity by end of Q4 2011. Unable to keep up with demand.
- Recent share price drop of 30% due to accident at one of its locations. Accident prob won't have major impact on long term share price
- Good article written by someone more knowledgeable on GFS than me: Interesting Energy Play

[Odd Job]

While my investment in Passport is for 3-5 years, I think Passport will have an immediate jump in the next few months.

As I type this Passport is up 17% today ... Didn't expect my prediction to come true so quickly. When I typed the above I was expecting a jump based on drilling results but that hasn't even come out yet. Todays jump was regarding a private placement.

[Odd Job]

Odd Job's Weekly Reflection #4

The highlight of my week was my potash investment which doubled in value on high volume. The past week also saw the addition of Gasfrac to my portfolio. I'm relieved to have chosen the stock early on in February as it means I can take a break from researching stocks..Now I will have some extra time to devote to my latest hobby - an allotment.

One of the problems I've encountered with my approach to investing is the feeling of regret when I see a stock doing well which I wanted to invest in. I will continue to invest in one stock each month but it is difficult to resist not going mad and buying more.


ACAP Resources
It's been a quiet week on the ACAP front. ACAP's neighbour in Botswana - Impact Minerals (IPT) released a statement during the week indicating that they're in talks with a third party regarding the sale of the rights to the lands bordering ACAP. ACAP own about 10% of IPT. They also share a common shareholder - China Growth. I have a feeling in my waters that ACAP is the third party. IPT's land is double that of ACAP and they border each other so I think this would be a good move for ACAP. I really hope ACAP acquire those lands.


Passport Potash
My little potash company had a good week - doubling in price on high volume. The only news release was that the private placement was accepted. I think the company may be getting ready to be listed in the US. Potash seems to be a popular investment at the moment.


Gasfrac
I bought into this stock on Tuesday. The company only recently resumed operations following an accident at one of its sites. The investigation concluded that a brief propane flash caused the ignition of lubricating fluids and tires on two fracturing pumpers. It sounds like this accident is something which won't affect the long-term viability of the company. The 2010 Q4 report is due out soon, which I would expect to be good.

While I don't think this stock is one of those stocks that doubles overnight, I do think it it a sensible investment in the shale gas area. For anyone reading this who is thinking about investing in Shale/Nat Gas, I like the following talk given by Nick Grealy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iox39-hW5xA


Portfolio So Far (Up 30%)
ACAP (Up 22%)
Passport Potash (Up 107%)
Gasfrac (Down 2%)

[Odd Job]

I've been mulling over selling out of Passport Potash over the past day. I'm currently up 311% (At one stage yesterday, I was up 400%).  I could direct the funds into a number of other stocks I like, including Mosquito... BUT after much thought I've decided to stay put.. I have an inkling that this will be a bad decision - one I'll regret later but what the hell..

Its my first multi-bagger so I've grown fond* of this stock. I like everything about it. Considering that 90% of potash used in the US is imported, I'm sure a lot of US investors will like this too. Perhaps my emotional attachment to the stock with be my downfall..