46 replies to this topic

[DrBubb]

Is anyone buying property in Ireland yet ?
If not, when might you start?
==================================

It is on its way towards being genuinely cheap...


/source: http://www.statusire...Since-1996.html

Irish Home Buyer Index

== : 1996 / '97 / 1998 / '99 / / 2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 // 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010
J : -----.- : 36.5 : 42.4 : 54.7 :: 65.4 : 78.9 : 80.8 : 093.0 : 105.4 : 114.4 : 126.1 : 139.5 : 128.2 : 115.7 : 91.9
F : -----.- : 36.9 : 43.0 : 55.6 :: 66.1 : 79.2 : 81.3 : 093.8 : 106.3 : 114.7 : 127.4 : 139.5 : 126.3 : 114.8 : 91.9
M : 33.7 : 38.0 : 44.0 : 56.3 :: 67.4 : 80.2 : 82.8 : 094.8 : 107.1 : 115.1 : 129.0 : 138.6 : 126.3 : 114.8 : 91.9
A : 33.8 : 38.4 : 44.7 : 57.1 :: 68.5 : 81.2 : 85.2 : 096.0 : 108.4 : 115.5 : 130.8 : 137.5 : 124.9 : 115.0 : 90.3
M : 34.2 : 39.0 : 46.2 : 57.8 :: 69.8 : 81.6 : 85.6 : 097.0 : 108.9 : 116.1 : 132.9 : 136.4 : 123.4 : 110.0 : 90.3
J. : 34.6 : 39.5 : 47.8 : 58.6 :: 71.1 : 81.8 : 86.0 : 098.7 : 109.9 : 116.8 : 134.5 : 135.7 : 122.6 : 108.6 : 90.3
Jl : 34.9 : 39.8 : 49.8 : 59.8 :: 72.4 : 82.6 : 86.4 : 099.8 : 110.9 : 117.8 : 136.0 : 135.1 : 122.4 : 107.1 :
A : 35.3 : 40.2 : 51.1 : 60.7 :: 73.9 : 83.4 : 87.5 : 100.6 : 112.1 : 119.0 : 137.3 : 134.7 : 121.3 : 105.5 :
S : 35.5 : 40.5 : 51.8 : 61.5 :: 74.2 : 83.2 : 88.7 : 101.1 : 113.2 : 120.2 : 138.2 : 134.2 : 120.0 : 104.3 :
O : 35.8 : 41.2 : 52.7 : 62.3 :: 75.0 : 82.5 : 90.0 : 102.4 : 113.5 : 121.7 : 139.0 : 132.5 : 119.0 : 102.4 :
N : 35.8 : 41.7 : 53.2 : 63.4 :: 76.4 : 82.1 : 91.2 : 103.6 : 113.8 : 123.1 : 139.2 : 131.0 : 118.4 : 099.2 :
D : 35.7 : 42.0 : 54.6 : 64.3 :: 78.0 : 81.5 : 92.3 : 105.0 : 114.0 : 124.6 : 139.3 : 129.1 : 117.3 : 095.6 :
==========

<i>The collapse of Ireland’s real estate bubble -- home prices almost quadrupled in the decade through 2007 -- can be seen in the knock-down prices of apartments in Dublin’s Booterstown Wood complex, owned and developed by Irish Nationwide, and in the 170 million euros of loans made to the developer of a hotel, conference center and research cluster now being liquidated.

Irish Nationwide had the most toxic loan book of the five financial companies whose bailout could end up costing the government 50 billion euros, according to a Sept. 30 estimate by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan. The National Asset Management Agency, set up to help cleanse the financial system, applied the biggest discount to face value -- as much as 72 percent -- to loans it bought from Irish Nationwide, according to statements on NAMA’s website.</i>

/more:  http://www.bloomberg...brink-as-beggar

..

BIG DISCOUNTS (and real ones!) are mentioned every where.  
I am not going to buy yet, but I think a market like that wants watching.

Possible SUPPORT LEVELS ??
( 1 )
High: 139.5 x 61.8% = 86.2
High (139.5) - Low (33.7) = 105.8 x 50% + 33.7 = 86.6
( 2 )
High: 139.5 x 50.0% = 69.8
High (139.5) - Low (33.7) = 105.8 x 38.2% + 33.7 = 74.1

== ==
ESRI Data :: http://www.esri.ie/i...sbesri_house_p/
Videos---- :: http://www.mortgagebrokers.ie/blog/
Quotes---- :: http://quotesfromthe...e.blogspot.com/
PT clone-- :: http://propertytribe...658Comment84301
For Sale-- :: http://www.daft.ie/
Link here- :: http://tinyurl.com/Gpc-IRE

[DrBubb]

In Gold ounces (to 2009)

/source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/01/...es-in-gold.html

ANECDOTES:
(1)
"At Booterstown Wood in the heart of affluent South Dublin, built on land Irish Nationwide bought about three decades ago, prices have also plummeted. Apartments, set around a courtyard, are priced between 215,000 euros and 445,000 euros. If all sell for their asking prices, the complex will raise about 19 million euros, or about half of what they would have sold for in 2007, said David Cantwell, agent for real estate agency Hooke & MacDonald, which is marketing the apartments."
/ per link, above

(2)
"I watched a programme a few months ago about Ireland, there were whole, new build housing estates that are now semi derelict as buyers had just handed the keys over.

I wondered what the opportunities could be and would also agree that it would take the market to bottom out before any real interest could be generated."
/ Ron Hubbard, PT

(3)
House prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2002, new figures reveal. (July 2010)
The latest review from the Permanent TSB/ESRI House Price Index shows the average cost of a home is now 201,364 euro - down 35% since the peak four years ago. But with the pace of decline slowing to 1.7% in recent months, experts said prices could be starting to level off.

Asking prices for Dublin homes decreased more quickly than the rest of the country between April and June, falling by 3.5%. An average house in the capital will now set buyers back 242,000 euro - almost 9,000 euro less than the average for the previous three months. The average price for a house outside Dublin over the past three months was 181,820 euro, compared with 183,309 euro in the first quarter of the year.

House prices nationally dropped by 6.4% in the first half of 2010.
/ Read more: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/loc...l#ixzz157DCGkyz

(4) JUST WALK AWAY?
Reading the papers today and the endless debate on debt forgiveness and the like, I posed the following question.

What if everybody in negative equity just walked away from their homes and rented next door at the same time handing in the keys to the banks, pulling their savings and investing their cash outside the country.

I know the result if it was a solo effort but if everybody or a significant minority did it what would happen?

In effect it would put the government, the ECB or whoever is running the country in the position they found themselves in with developers. (If I get a few positives as regards this suggestion perhaps I'll kick off a movement or is this the new political party we now crave?)
/see: http://www.daft.ie/discussions.daft?dcn[discussion_id]=130462&fr=default

[DrBubb]

You'd have to be DAFT to buy in Ireland now?

A quick comment on asking prices versus closing prices:
Accurate measurement of house prices is a hot topic at the moment – it seems the ptsb closing price index reached a minimum fall in year-on-year terms of 10%, while asking prices haven’t yet found their nadir.
The full report is available at: http://www.daft.ie/report :


/source: http://ronanlyons.wordpress.com/page/2/

Irish Property For sale :: http://www.daft.ie/

[DrBubb]

Latest permanent tsb/ESRI House Price Index - 20/10/2010*

Permanent TSB/ESRI House Price Index – Quarter 3 2010 figures :
·         Average national house prices decline by 1.3% in Quarter 3 2010
·         Average national prices now at end 2002 levels
·         36% decrease since peak at the end of 2006

Average national house prices in Ireland fell by 1.3% in the 3rd Quarter of 2010 [July, August and September] according to the permanent tsb / ESRI House Price Index Quarterly Review published today. This is the lowest quarterly reduction since the second Quarter of 2008 [April – June inclusive] and compares to a reduction in Quarter 2 this year of 1.7%.

The reduction in average national house prices in the first nine months of this year was 7.6%.  This compares to a fall of 11.7% in the first nine months of last year [2009].  The year on year decline (Quarter 3, 2009 to Quarter 3, 2010) was 14.8% and compares to a reduction of 17.0% year on year to Quarter 2 2010.  The average price for a house nationally in Quarter 3, 2010 has now fallen below EUR 200K to EUR 198,689, compared with EUR 233,137 in Quarter 3 2009 and EUR 311,078 at their peak.  National prices have fallen 36% since the price peak at the end of 2006.

Dublin V Rest of Country
Dublin house prices fell by 1.2% in the 3rd Quarter of 2010. This compares to a reduction in 2nd Quarter 2010 of 3.5% and a reduction of 10.3% in Quarter 1 2010.

The reduction in the first nine months of 2010 was 14.6%, and compares to -17.2% in the same period 2009.  The year on year decline in Dublin (Quarter 3 2009 to Quarter 3 2010) was 21.0% and compares to a reduction of 24.6% year on year to Quarter 2 2010.  The average price for a Dublin house in Quarter 3 2010 was EUR 238,986, compared with EUR 242,000 in Quarter 2 2010.

House prices Outside Dublin fell by 1.2% in the 3rd Quarter of 2010. This compares to a reduction in Quarter 2 2010 of 0.8% and a reduction of 3.5% in Quarter 1 2010.

The reduction in the first nine months of 2010 was 5.4%, and compares to -10.0% in the same period 2009.  The year on year decline Outside Dublin (Quarter 3 2009 to Quarter 3 2010) was 11.2% and compares to a reduction of 14.0% year on year to Quarter 2 2010.  The average price for a house Outside Dublin in Quarter 3 2010 was EUR 179,721, compared with EUR 181,820 in Quarter 2 2010.

Commenting on the figures Niall O’ Grady, General Manager with permanent tsb said “This is the second successive quarter indicating that the pace of decline in house prices is easing. However as the market remains very quiet, it may be premature to conclude that we have reached the bottom of the cycle just yet”

/more: http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/permanent_tsbesri_house_p/

== ==

Funny how this works - Bad news is better less often?:
*Please note that due to the low sample size a decision has been made to issue the Permanent TSB / ESRI House Price Index on a quarterly basis rather than the current monthly report.

[G0ldfinger]

Is anyone buying property in Ireland yet? If not, when might you start?

I think the market has a very long way to fall still if it's true what I read and if the ECB does not do an insane thing. My question would be: why buy soon if the crisis will suppress prices for maybe a decade or two? Do we really think that the economy will recover that quickly? To me it looks rather as if the central banks do all that is in their power to prolong the mess.

[DrBubb]

COMPARISONS - from Ronan Lyon's excellent blog (now abandoned?):

Five years, six property markets, mixed fortunes
Posted on May 20, 2009 by ronanlyons

Last week, there was a brief discussion on thepropertypin of an interesting piece of economic history – in the 60 years following their construction in the late 1780s and early 1790s, the Georgian houses of Mountjoy Square fell in value by almost 94%. By comparison, nominal wages fell about 40%-50% during the same period, while the price of food – if bread is anything to go by – stayed largely the same (8 pence for a loaf of bread in the 1790s and in 1848). While I can’t claim to speak for anyone else reading, I would imagine the general perception was: “So property prices can adjust downward by percentages scarily close to 100% – but it probably takes a unique set of circumstances (Act of Union and all that).”

Yesterday, however, I read on Carpe Diem about the latest property price statistics from Detroit. Houses in Detroit are selling for an average of $11,500 at the moment, down an astonishing 88% from their peak values. That translates into a monthly mortgage payment of $50! And this happened not in 60 years of steady economic decline but in less than five years.

It got me thinking about Ireland’s property market in a global context, so I decided to do a little comparison of 2005-2009 for a smattering of cities. The cities were chosen in no particular way other than to give some global coverage, hence two Asian and one American cities, as well as two Western European and an Eastern European city. The figures refer to the start of the year concerned, with Jan 2005 set at 100 for all cities.



It was a slight surprise to see that, of the cities shown, none apart from Detroit had yet fallen below their Jan 2005 levels by the start of 2009. Indeed, some cities almost 50% above their 2005 levels. Dublin was closest – and more than likely has already fallen back to mid-2004 levels since the start of the year. Tallinn seems to be like an excess version of Dublin – rising and now falling faster. For Singapore and Hong Kong, 2007 seems to have been easily the craziest year, but the correction in 2008 was nowhere near as large. Meanwhile, Detroit props them all up.

For a view on how much more of a correction is needed for five economies, including the US, Ireland and Spain, you can have a look at property yields over the medium term here.

[Mabon]

I've considered buying over there loads of times. First time I was looking was the late 1980s when I was gonna sell my house in Wales and tiptoe across.

At the time I'd heard you could buy castles in working order for 30k. I'd missed out on that by a few years, but prices in some parts were no more than most parts of Wales (except the posh bits). And Ag land was about 15% cheaper as far as I remember.

I can see prices there will probably fall by another 30% plus from here over the next 5 years.

And if they stay with the Europudding (I know it's not awesome analysis to give currencies funny names, but I just can't help it)....probably more.

They have so many empty properties there - who is going to fill them all? Another wave of Welsh 'immigration' to stock up on Evans', Morgans', Owens and Griffiths'?

[DrBubb]

I've considered buying over there loads of times. First time I was looking was the late 1980s when I was gonna sell my house in Wales and tiptoe across.

At the time I'd heard you could buy castles in working order for 30k. I'd missed out on that by a few years, but prices in some parts were no more than most parts of Wales (except the posh bits). And Ag land was about 15% cheaper as far as I remember.

Any idea what Mortgage rates are doing, with this big jump in Irish bond yields?

If they have jumped as much as I think they have, it must be trigger another downwards shock in prices, after a slowing in the decline earlier this year.

[tallim]

...  
I am not going to buy yet, but I think a market like that wants watching...

It would probably be useful to try and find a stat that tracks Irish population size, I'm led to believe that the natural response to previous recessions in Ireland has been large scale emigration.

It might be different this time with the multinational tech and pharma companies there, but does the Irish government still have a good enough offering to lure new investments?  Israel is offering Intel $135M in grants to keep the next generation of chip fabrication there.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/financ...4281543772.html

[LauraB]

Is anyone buying property in Ireland yet? If not, when might you start?

It is on its way towards being genuinely cheap...

http://ghostestates.com/main.php?g2_view=map.ShowMap

Outside of the cities there is another Ireland that attracted those looking for a rural lifestyle.
I seriously considered retiring to the west of Ireland in the late 90's, until the similarly fascist corrupt catholic Portugal weaved its sunny (non-urban) spell.
The 22 acre farm I had in mind in Co.Clare was under 30,000 Punts.

Co.Sligo was/is the cheapest county in Ireland. There was a weekly ad in the Uk's Exchange & Mart for property under 10,000 in Sligo throughout the nineties.
Roughly based on current offerings I would suggest that like much of Ireland it is still overpriced by factors between two & five.
Two is for those areas with strong rental potential, & five is for those with none!

http://www.property.ie/property-for-sale/s...price_0-100000/
- To an outsider drunk on loon pricing these prices look cheap but for Sligo they are not.


A post from a year ago on a great Irish forum
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.ph...0a&start=15

All such discussions are meaningless,measuring inflation,house prices,wages inflation - it means nothing.This whole NAMA exercise is about maintaining house prices at their current value.NAMA is going to pay very close to bubble/current values for ALL property and even part completed developments,even sites.You are all needlessly overcomplicating things.

The extent of the overpayment will range from low teens to high eighty/ninety percents,noone can know the extent of the gouging of the Irish taxpayer.The calculation is impossible as it will be worked out as the nightmare of losses,bankruptcies and reposessions unfolds.The government hasn't a clue,nor the banks nor anyone else.The government will simply pay whatever it has to.

Just be content in the knowledge that this is all about maintaining the belief in the minds of the average Joe and Mary that "you cannot lose on property".

Their recent faith has taken a large test,and is about to be rewarded by the ECB in the form a cast iron guarantee to the Irish government of all the property based losses of the banks.

Most families in Ireland as anywhere on planet earth,do not want the value of their house to go down,have you all got that?they think it should only go up.The fact that it would give them more of their own money to spend as they wish every month,instead of giving it to the banks in the form of interest(or the government in tax to pass on to the banks via NAMA) doesn't even enter their heads.To them,they have bought it at x00,000 euros,and so their monthly payments are effectively fixed(interest rates aren't going up for years to come)so if house prices fall and new/first time buyers have lower payments it doesn't affect them,so they rather selfishly would rather the government does everything to keep house prices artificially high.

If you don't understand that pyschology,you will incorrectly assume people will do what is right for the country and what is right for society as a whole.

The people want to be shafted,nothing you are going to say on this site or do is going to change that,banks offer these people the chance to make free money by over borrowing on their mortgage.The government- via the taxpayer- is offering to guarantee the whole process,god forbid anyone who stands in the way of what they consider to be their rightful gains.

Since the mortgagees and the taxpayers are one and the same,it just remains for the more intelligent of the gombeens to work out that like the diner at the table of the restaurant where the bill is being split between everyone,those who eat the most pay the least.

Below is just a forum heading. So refreshing after a certain other (UK based) effort

The Return of the Banana Republic, Pt. VI The Slippery Slope

The National Emergency deepens into a terminal crisis. The Irish Government are also in terminal paralysis aka “asleep at the wheel”. Unemployment is back to '96 levels as if it never went away. Brendan O’Connor applies the Revisionist lube and Ryan Tubridy is found whimpering in the corner of studio 4 with only his Uncle Gaybo Doll for comfort... but wait! Property Bubbles are so 2006/07/08, what will Liz O'Kane do?

It is going to be a long grind down or a calamitous collapse, (is there a third way?), & who wants to join in paying for it?
  If I was younger I might tag Ireland as worth another look, in ten years time, might..

[G0ldfinger]

... A post from a year ago on a great Irish forum ...

If your country is essentially bankrupt and the IMF is closing in (as for Ireland right NOW), domestic property prices won't matter much anymore. It will all be about raising enough taxes to satisfy foreign creditors. Who will give a flying rat's @$$ about property prices as long as people continue to pay their mortgages because they can't default or don't want to default?

[DrBubb]

It is going to be a long grind down or a calamitous collapse, (is there a third way?), & who wants to join in paying for it?
  If I was younger I might tag Ireland as worth another look, in ten years time, might..

If Irish interest rates are pushed high enough by the prospects of default, we may soon see:
"a calamitous collapse"

Does anyone know what mortgage rates are now in Ireland?


I do think that the UK is headed down the same difficult path as Ireland.  



The disaster has been delayed by the Pause in the property crash that was engineered by Brown and his cronies through ultra-low rates (QE) introduced "in the nick of time."  When prices start sliding again, the British banks will all be in trouble, and need a fresh round of bailouts.  Bank troubles can bring much higher rates in Britain at that time - as we are seeing in Ireland now.

It amazes me that Brits seem incapable of looking across the Irish Sea to see their inevitable fate,  As an internationalist American, I have no such hang-ups.

If you add in the US - you will see Britain is the "odd man out"



Only because Britain's price slide started later, and it was able to come up with those low rates before market sentiment became irreparably broken.  But I think the "break" that kills sentiment lies in British property's future.  And the end result is:  Britain will be mired in a property depression still when the US and Ireland are climbing out.  Shame on Mr. Brown and his team of bamboozlers.

Notice how the US had the smallest rise of the three, peaked first, and has corrected the greater percentage of its rise (so far.)  I think it will reach its bottom first too, and I would stay away from the other two markets, and especially the UK, until I see a low in the US.

[LauraB]

If your country is essentially bankrupt and the IMF is closing in (as for Ireland right NOW),.....

I thought the beloved parent (the ECB) had stepped in to extend the farce ?

[DrBubb]

Is anyone buying property in Ireland yet?
If not, when might you start?
==================================

Possible SUPPORT LEVELS ??
( 1 )
High: 139.5 x 61.8% = 86.2
High (139.5) - Low (33.7) = 105.8 x 50% + 33.7 = 86.6
( 2 )
High: 139.5 x 50.0% = 69.8
High (139.5) - Low (33.7) = 105.8 x 38.2% + 33.7 = 74.1

"Unemployment is back to '96 levels as if it never went away."
In the above calculations, I started in March 1996.

[Colonel WE Kurtz]

It's a bit cold and damp for me Bubb, but I do love the Paddies, great crack.

[DrBubb]

It's a bit cold and damp for me Bubb, but I do love the Paddies, great crack.

Welcome back, Col. K.
Where have you been? Not hiding in the bogs, obviously

[Colonel WE Kurtz]

Welcome back, Col. K.
Where have you been? Not hiding in the bogs, obviously

Flat out Bruv. Painting. Oh, and burning myself daily with dichloromethane stripping the ghastly remains of a stain of questionable taste from various bits of wood, like doors.

Bedroom 2 of house 2 is now yellow. Which looks great in the day but fluoresces under lighting, quite radioactive, sort of plutonium sherbet.

[DrBubb]

Bedroom 2 of house 2 is now yellow. Which looks great in the day but fluoresces under lighting,
quite radioactive, sort of plutonium sherbet.

Sounds electric.  As if you are going nuclear. Try hooking up some wires.
How is property holding up in Thailand?  Well, I heard
== ==

Does anyone follow any Irish property companies or REITS?
They may be worth watching too.

[Colonel WE Kurtz]

Sounds electric.  As if you are going nuclear. Try hooking up some wires.
How is property holding up in Thailand?  Well, I heard

Funny you should say, reckon this place will fall down soon, subsidence. Oh well, 500 Baht will fix it.

Economy here is bizarre. Can't figure it out. They claim it's exports and tourism but I know tourism here is dead as a door nail. Has to be carry trade bubble. It does feel wealthy. suddenly, even here in the sticks. It's the 'suddenly' bit that bothers me.

[etfman]

What's happening to house prices in Greece?  They had a massive housing boom and very easy credit with low rates?  I would have expected a calamatous collapse there but not sure there has been one.

The only reason things aren't crashing down is because we are being lied to about how bad things are.  If they had done nothing; no QE or bailing out the banks we would have had 2 - 3 years of economic collapse then boom times again.