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About the banning & deletions on another website


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 06 October 2010 - 09:34 AM

About the banning & deletions on another website
Thousands of posts (& charts) lost forever?
=================================



Many here or on HPC may have heard about an incident wherein I asked that HPC chose whether it would "ban" myself, or another poster, with a habit of posting wind-ups and other "nasty" comments on my threads.

If you go to HPC, you will find his explanations of what happened but not mine. This thread is to set the record straight, and was inspired when someone registered on GEI, and began making wind-ups here on another site.

(as posted on a thread in the Members' Section of GEI):

QUOTE (Little Professor @ Oct 6 2010, 05:37 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Peace and love, Bubbs, don't let the rotters get you down wub.gif

I don't know if this is the same "Little Professor" from HPC or not. But maybe that doesn't matter.

There's a thread with my name on it on HPC, which I am not allowed to post upon. The following comment was posted there by Little Professor:

First a comment from another poster, XX, (who someone said was me, I can assure you it was not):
I do not really care either way. But banning someone is not a nice thing to do unless there is clearly a breach of forum rules.

QUOTE = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Ltttle Professor says:
I would agree entirely.
Dr Bubb made an ultimatum to the mods to ban me or ban him. I had not breached the forum rules, my only 'crime' was to dare to disagree with Bubb and point out that his prediction of "crash cruise speed" resuming by the end of 2009 had turned out to be bunkum.

To accede to Bubb's demands, the mods would have to either ban me for no good reason, or ban him at his own request. They chose to do the latter.

He subsequently spat out his dummy and made legal threats demanding all 'his' content be deleted from HPC. Technically they could have just ignored his threats, as the terms and conditions of this forum clearly state that all content posted here becomes the property of housepricecrash.co.uk, but presumably it just wasn't worth the hassle trying to deal with his legal wrangling.

For the record, I never asked nor wanted Dr Bubb to be banned, nor for his posts to be deleted. That was all entirely his own doing. He did actually post some interesting stuff, even though most of his posts were simply rather tragic attempts to make himself look like an uber-leet techinical analyst, with lots of random graphs copied and pasted from Yahoo Finance accompanied by some meaningless cryptic comments which could go either way. His trading diary is a classic example - he never actually says what trades he is making, or even any actual explanation of the technical data he is posting. The one time he did make an actual concrete prediction, in the housebuilders thread, he got it wrong and couldn't handle this being pointed out.

Accusations of censorship are ridiculous, anyone who wants to read his work knows where to find him - he certainly promoted his forum enough times on here, and it is the number one link on google for 'dr bubb'. Meanwhile over in his own house, dissent will not be tolerated, as per this rather ludicrous example in the moderation rules.

(he then quotes rules that were proposed by another Moderator, as if they were mine.)

UNQUOTE = = = = = = = = = = = = =

I shall now respond HERE, as I am not allowed to defend myself on HPC:

1/
LP's 1-2 posts on that page did not seem outrageously offensive on their own. But there were dozens of such posts by him and others on the same thread. The last two were merely the last straw of a widespread pattern of nasty postings from about 6-8 posters on HPC, who have been dubbed the "antibodies" by a poster here (Member100). They seemed to think they were serving HPC by ganging up on me on a regular basis, whenever they think they have spotted a tiny error in one of my forecasts, no matter how trivial the apparent "error" may be. (Anyone who has experienced this sort of drip-drip of nasty postings will know how it feels. If you have not, then maybe you should try sticking your neck out, and make a series of serious and well-thought out forecasts on HPC, and see how long it takes to acquire your own "antibodies" posting against you. There is no pleasure in it, I can tell you.)

2/
I was fed up by the inaccuracy and inherent nastiness of such postings and, frankly, have been ready to quit HPC for some time. What kept me posting was that many folks there would regularly thank me for my forecasts, and/or send me PM's telling me to ignore the abuse - But one gets fed up eventually.

One of the reasons I was thinking to leave HPC has been mentioned in other posts. That is, the Mods have now taken to deleting links back to GEI. This is unfair, and can be considered a form of theft. When I post material which is an excerpt from another site, I normally post a link back to the origin of the material. For some months now, all of my longer and more thoughtful posts on HPC were first posted on GEI. And they may be part of a larger thread on GEI with more material on my own website. To publish and excerpt on HPC without a link back, is unfair to the original source of material.

What I was finding was I would post a long excerpt from GEI, with a link back, and then find a few hours ago that the link was missing. In effect, the material that was contributed with a link was being taken over as HPC material, with its source deleted. I wrote a long post complaining about this practice, and never got around to sending it. That post has been shown elsewhere on GEI, and I may show it here too, depending on how this discussion goes. In addition, I have previously asked HPC Mods to explain why they were deleting my links, and never got a satisfactory explanation.

To say that I am "recruiting for GEI", would mean that I am recruiting for HPC when I publish an excerpt from an HPC post here, with a link back to the source thread on HPC. And I have done that hundreds, if not thousands of times. By LP's reasoning, I was therefore recruiting for HPC on my website. That's not how I see. I was merely following standrad "fair practice" on the web.

3/
By asking HPC to ban me, or ban LP, I was asking HPC Moderators to choose whether or not they wanted me to go on offering my content there. I would often spend hours collecting data, which would then be used for charts or for analysis on on thread here (and for its similar excerpt on HPC.) If my serious content was not to be taken seriously, why should I go on posting it there? I was ready to stop, by the time I read LP's last two posts.

When I posted the ultimatum, my intention was: If they wanted my content, they would have to offer some sort of protection from the "antibody" posters. (To show how seriously I take this matter, we have introduced a new moderation policy giving just that protection on GEI.) If the Mods allowed LP (and others) to go on disrupting my threads, and distorting my content, I was ready to depart the website. My post intentionally carried this issue to a decision point, and the HPC Mods made their choice.

4/
An alternative action might have been to: move the thread containing the ultimatum, to suspend both LP and myself for maybe 12-24 hours , and ask me to explain why I was so upset. I would have done so (as I have above), and then HPC mods could have had more time to make a rational choice rather than reacting so quickly and emotionally. They should have known this was coming from the previous 2-3 incidents, when I had voluntarily requested a one week's suspension, while complaining about the "antibodies" posters attacking my threads. But HPC mods have never been known for their wisdom.

5/
I never made any request to HPC Moderators that all my threads their be deleted there. What I did do, was mention HERE ON GEI ONLY (!), that I was considering making such a request - and I "may" give such a request to HPC sometime in the future. Speculating about the possibility of making a request on a totally different website, is miles away from making the request on HPC, or to their Moderators, or owner. Obviously, that statement was picked up FROM HERE by HPC Mods. I think it was a very reckless and damaging decision, since HPC readers will now be unable to see those old post. They were a treasure trove of cyclical analysis, with many right and wrong forecasts as anyone would expect. An entire pattern of analysis was laid out, with historical results that all could see. Now much of that is lost to history and those with an interest in property cycles, and that is a pity.

6/
Where do I go from here? I am convinced that there is a readership, and maybe a big one, for serious thinking about property cycles, and how bellwethers (like builder share prices and so forth) might be used to forecast property prices. HPC has struck a mighty blow against those who think that serious analysis has a place on their website. They have kept their site totally open to those who want to disrupt serious posters. Wind-ups, sarcasm, abuse, and misrepresentation will go on reigning supreme. It is ridiculous, and a great insult to those HPC readers who want to see some serious analysis take place there.

The time has come to offer those interested in Property prices and the workings of the market a serious place to post. GEI has been doing that for four years, and we have developed a great stable of posters and readers of serious analysis of markets in general. Many of these people were chased off HPC and other sites like them, by the antics of "antibodies." I invite those with an interest in something better to type: GlobalPropertyCycles.com into their browsers and have a look.

If you like what you see, please join us in a new adventure.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 06 October 2010 - 09:34 AM

QUOTE
Dr Bubb made an ultimatum to the mods to ban me or ban him. I had not breached the forum rules, my only 'crime' was to dare to disagree with Bubb and point out that his prediction of "crash cruise speed" resuming by the end of 2009 had turned out to be bunkum.


What were the "last straw" postings? - Here they are:

QUOTE ( @ Oct 2 2010, 10:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
#1683 /
Little Professor / Posted 03 June 2010 - 11:48 AM

I'm with you. Spline has been calling it right, and his methodology is simple and rigorous. Unlike Dr Bubb who just copies and pastes screeds of random technical data he doesn't even understand and then adds some cryptic comment about how this somehow proves that he is right. laugh.gif
All hail Spline! ph34r.gif


#1685 /
Little Professor / Posted 03 June 2010 - 12:17 PM

I fully accept that we are in a bear trap, that prices are still unsustainable high, and that prices will start falling again. None of the bears on this site would diagree with that. The issue here is Dr B pretending he has some special insight into the property market through his magic powers of browsing Yahoo Finance, and consistently calling the top of the market wrong.


#1690 /
Little Professor / Posted Today, 08:50 AM

DrBubb, on 28 October 2009 - 01:53 PM, said:
It's nearly over, the Dead Cat Bounce
Property should peak by year end (my forecast)

I believe now that UK property should peak before year end, and within the first quarter of 2010, you will once again see a sliding market.

The following charts of the Builders are my own prima facia evidence:
[snip ]loads of random charts to make myself look oh so technical [/snip]
===========================================

ARE WE THERE YET???
Nationwide : House prices rose in September

Dr Bubb, when are you finally going to admit your bullcrap about having some special super secret techincal system to determine future house prices by posting loads of random charts copied and pasted from Yahoo Finance was just a load of balls? Still waiting.


Readers, let me ask you this:
If you had spent HOURS collecting data, producing charts and analysis, and then seen half-arsed comments like those above,
what would your reaction have been?

And observe: these were comments #1683, #1685, and #1690 (that's nearly 2,000 posts on a single thread!),
and the thread was entitled "It's nearly over, the Dead Cat Bounce Property should peak by year end ",
and following is original post starting the thread:

People had been repeatedly asking me what would get me to call the end of the Dead Cat bounce, and I had been waiting for a clear signal from the Builder shares, when I got one, I posted this:

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Oct 1 2010, 08:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Posts: #1700+ / Pages: 113 / Hits: 100,000+ ?
Link: http://www.housepric...howtopic=128817
Cached: http://webcache.goog...r...=en&ct=clnk
== ==
Posted 28 October 2009 - 12:53 PM

It's nearly over, the Dead Cat Bounce
Property should peak by year end (my forecast)

======================================

I cannot ignore those price falls in the Builder shares any longer.

I think it is time to flash : the REVERSAL WARNING !



Having called the Dead Cat Bounce was underway on April 4th, I now think it is time to say: I believe we are seeing the end of it.

I believe now that UK property should peak before year end, and wuthin the first quarter of 2010, you will once again see a sliding market.

The following charts of the Builders are my own prima facia evidence:

All Together : BDEV + PSN + BKG + TW ... update / intraday


Individually : BDEV : PSN : BKG : TW

Please post any signs of a slowdown or prices reversing on this thread
This post has been edited by DrBubb: 28 October 2009 - 01:49 PM
=========================

post #2:
Posted 28 October 2009 - 12:55 PM
Here are the charts that convinced me to make the Call


===
The very high volume on the selloff is the main thing convincing me that turn is happening.

The Builder stocks are being ditched with real enthusiasm
This post has been edited by DrBubb: 28 October 2009 - 03:17 PM


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

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Posted 06 October 2010 - 10:03 AM

"I believe now that UK property should peak before year end, and within the first quarter of 2010, you will once again see a sliding market."

How accurate was that statement?:
Here's the actual data from http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap

DATA BANK: / WHAT HAS HAPPENED since 2009:

Mon.: Rt'move : London : Hometrack / Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx
When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th?
2009
J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 158,200 - 1.0% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6%
F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 157,000 - 0.8% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW
M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 156,100* -0.6% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6%
A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 155,600* -0.3% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7%
M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 155,600*+0.0% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5%
J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 155,650 +X.X% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7%
Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 155,650 +X.X% / 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6%
A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 155,806 +0.1% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3%
S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 156,118 +0.2% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1%
O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,430 +0.2% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM '09 HIGH
N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 156,743 +0.2% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9%
D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 156,900*+0.1% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5%

Mon.: Rt'move : London : Hometrack / Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx
2010
J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : 156,116 - 0.5% / 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH
F : : 229,398 : 427,987 : 156,584 +0.3% / 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2%
M : : 229,614 : 417,461 : 157,054 +0.3% / 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2%
A : : 235,512 : 421,822 : 157,368 +0.2% / 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH
M : : 237,134 : 420,203 : 157,682 +0.2% / 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2%
J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 : 158,700*+0.1% / 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%
Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 : 158,500 - 0.1% / 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%
A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 : 158,200 - 0.3% / 166,507 = n/a = 167,953 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5%

== == ==

For those confused by all those figures, they show:

+ Oct. 2009 : Rightmove high for 2009
+ Jan. 2010 : Halifax, seasonally adjusted high
+ Feb. 2010 - virtual double-top with RM's June 2010 high (only about 0.5% higher than Feb).
+ April 2010 : H&N Index high

Some have called my Oct. 2009 forecast "spot on", and I think I can make an argument for that (Halifax SA)
but all I have said since then was: it was not too bad, the H&N index peaked in April 2010 (so far)

I never claimed any "special super secret techincal system" (the words that LP used.) I merely based my forecast on the notion that Homebuilder shares looked like they were peaking in October (spot on!) and that a peak in the Housing price indices might follow in about 3 months, and almost certainly within 6-9 months.

IS IT CLEAR NOW: why I regard those LP postings as annoying, abusive, and not worthy of posting on a serious chatboard?
The misrepresentation of reality, is "disingenuous" and he hasn't looked closely at all the data.

Is it clear why I get upset when posters like LP pop up, and ask; "When are you going to admit you were wrong?"
(This rhetorical technique is the same as asking: "When are you going to stop beating your wife?")
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 06 October 2010 - 10:36 AM

So what did I post in reaction to LP's "friendly and balanced" words?:
Dr Bubb, when are you finally going to admit your bullcrap about having some special super secret techincal system to determine future house prices by posting loads of random charts copied and pasted from Yahoo Finance was just a load of balls? Still waiting.

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Oct 1 2010)
I am a little amazed that Little Professor has not been banned from this website for his constant lies and slander.
I will ask for that now.

It should be clear by now whose prognosis has been worth paying attention to.

+ Hometrack has reported the biggest drop in 18 months.
+ Rightmove has reported a 7.1% drop in Greater London over 3 months
+ Nationwide's own report says:
Martin Gahbauer, chief economist at Nationwide, said September had proven to be an uneventful month for house prices.
He said: "The seasonally adjusted price index for a typical UK property was essentially unchanged in September, edging up by a marginal 0.1 per cent from its August level.
"The three month on three month rate of change, a good indicator of the near term price trend, fell from 0.0 per cent in August to -0.9 per cent in September.
"This represents the first negative reading for the three month rate of change since May 2009 and is consistent with the clear loosening of housing market conditions observed over the summer months
.

I have asked the Mods here to ban Little Professor or to ban me from this website
This post has been edited by DrBubb: Today, 10:08 AM (note: adding Nationwide quote above)

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

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Posted 06 October 2010 - 01:01 PM

Perhaps they need a campaign like this at "the other place" ?

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Oct 6 2010, 09:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Trucks Encircle ABC, CBS, NBC, Challenge ‘Liberal’ Media to ‘Tell The Truth’
Monday, October 04, 2010
By Michael W. Chapman


A Media Research Center "Tell the Truth!" truck ad in downtown New York City. (Photo: Bob and Cory Parks.)

(CNSNews.com) – Four billboard trucks bearing the message “Stop the Liberal Bias, Tell the Truth!” began circling the Manhattan headquarters of ABC, CBS, NBC, and the New York Times on Friday. The trucks will do so for eight hours every weekday for the next four weeks as part of a campaign run by the Media Research Center, a watchdog group that analyzes the media for liberal bias.

Similar trucks also are operating in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, passing the offices of the broadcast networks, the Washington Post, CNN, the Newseum, the National Press Club and Politico, and ads about the campaign are running on numerous Web sites and on conservative talk radio programs.
==

I love it !

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 OneHundred

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Posted 07 October 2010 - 06:23 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Oct 6 2010, 05:58 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Ltttle Professor says:
[i]I would agree entirely.
Dr Bubb made an ultimatum to the mods to ban me or ban him. I had not breached the forum rules, my only 'crime' was to dare to disagree with Bubb and point out that his prediction of "crash cruise speed" resuming by the end of 2009 had turned out to be bunkum.

To accede to Bubb's demands, the mods would have to either ban me for no good reason...

Reading the above, plus Little Professor's other comments,
("Dr Bubb who just copies and pastes screeds of random technical data he doesn't even understand and then adds some cryptic comment about how this somehow proves that he is right." ... "The issue here is Dr B pretending he has some special insight into the property market through his magic powers of browsing Yahoo Finance, and consistently calling the top of the market wrong." ... "Dr Bubb, when are you finally going to admit your bullcrap about having some special super secret techincal system to determine future house prices by posting loads of random charts copied and pasted from Yahoo Finance was just a load of balls? Still waiting.")
...the words "first class" and "horse's arse" come to mind.

I think he should be banned from here and from HPC ! Has he ever shown the slightest evidence that he can do better? And the lies and constant spinning, just make him appear to be a troll.

#7 DrBubb

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Posted 07 October 2010 - 01:57 PM

QUOTE (Member100 @ Oct 7 2010, 03:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think he should be banned from here and from HPC ! Has he ever shown the slightest evidence that he can do better? And the lies and constant spinning, just make him appear to be a troll.

As incredible as it may seem, the Mods at HPC are now deleting any favorable reference to "DrBubb", and maybe "crash cruise speed" too.

I saw 3-4 positive references when the Halifax figures came out, and 1 hour or so later, they were gone !
QUOTE (DrBubb @ Oct 7 2010, 05:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%!?
: see a HPC page

My comment :

This report looks like a game changer.
It is going to be tough to restore the Bullish consensus after such a large fall.

Buyer are going to want discounts to buy, and that should help keep the falls coming month-by-month,
the psychology which is needed for "Crash Cruise Speed"* to be maintained over months, even years.


(BTW, if you want to quote me on HPC, I recommend that you say:
"The guy on the Property Cycles website says..." / any reference to "DrBubb" is now getting deleted there, unless it
is unfavorable - what a bunch of absolute bankers the Mods there are !)
== == ==

*Falls averaging 0.5-1.0% per month, perhaps more.
The September fall made up for 3-6 months of possible misreporting

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 Little Professor

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Posted 18 October 2010 - 12:06 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Oct 6 2010, 11:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
+ Rightmove has reported a 7.1% drop in Greater London over 3 months

Ahem...

QUOTE
Bloomberg, Oct 18 2010: London Home Sellers Raise Prices by 5%
London home sellers raised asking prices by the most in six months in October as owners across the U.K. brushed off the challenges posed by the biggest fiscal squeeze since World War II, Rightmove Plc said.

Average asking prices in the capital increased 5 percent from September to 418,778 pounds ($671,301), the most since February, the operator of Britain’s biggest property website said in a report published in London today. Across the U.K., prices rose 3.1 percent to 236,849 pounds.


Just saying....


#9 DrBubb

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Posted 18 October 2010 - 12:27 AM

Have you any constructive point to make, LP?

Here are EXCERPTS from the article:
Given the challenges of the current market, the behavior of sellers in raising their average asking prices by over 7,000 pounds takes some explaining,” Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said in the statement, referring to prices across Britain. “It’s not likely to be a successful tactic.”

While the U.K. economy grew at the fastest pace in nine years in the second quarter, recent data indicates the recovery is weakening. Manufacturing growth slowed in September, jobless claims rose and Nationwide Building Society’s consumer- confidence gauge fell to an 18-month low as Britons braced for the government’s spending cuts to reduce the budget deficit.

Slow Recovery

Rightmove said the weekly rate of new properties on the market rose 11 percent in October from a year earlier. With banks still rationing credit, sellers may have to accept lower offers amid “greater competition” for buyers, it said.

The “fundamentals remain unsupportive” for the housing market, Ernst & Young said in a report published today. It expects prices to decline into 2011 and said the recovery “will be slow.”


They make any points that I would want to make for me.

== == ==

I think the LP posting shows exactly what is wrong with HPC:

+ Many HPC "antibodies" want to post either nitpicks, or gotchas! against someone else's forecast,
+ On GEI, we are "all in it together", trying to develop better are more accurate forecasting techniques
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 DrBubb

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Posted 18 October 2010 - 01:38 AM

Look at the appalling lack of any analytic rigor on HPC:
http://www.housepric...howtopic=152995

Compared with this from my Diary:
QUOTE (DrBubb @ Oct 18 2010, 10:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
A 5% Shocker, or just a normal seasonal "cheeky trying it out"?

For some odd reason, Rightmove doesn't refer to prior year JUMPS in October asking prices, which have always been huge:
Comparison:
Mon.: Rt'move : London : Hometrack / Na'wide H.old.SA Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx
2009
S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 156,118 +0.2% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1%
O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,430 +0.2% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM '09 Hi
==================
chg: + 6,188 : + 25,389 (+6.50%)
2010
S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,600* -0.4% / 166,757 = n/a = 162,096 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1%
O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : est.DI: 143.4%
==================
chg: + 7,089 : + 19,759 (+4.95%)
mom:+3.08% :+4.95%

This year's 4.95% jump in Great London asking prices seems a shocker, until you see that last year's rise was 6.5%.

And if you review last year's jump on: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap , you will see that most of those higher offering prices did not hold. Within two months, Pds.17,731 of the Oct.2009 rise melted away.

Rightmove's own press release prepared sellers for disappointment:

Market fundamentals remain poor as property per branch rises from 69 in October last year to 78 now and mortgage availability continues to deteriorate
However, 105,769 new October sellers asked £7,082 more for their homes than last month’s sellers
Why would new sellers test the market at asking prices 3.1% higher than a month ago?...
- Bullish pricing is a normal characteristic of the autumn selling season with average asking prices increasing in every October for the past decade
- Vendors struggle to react to the increasing stock as most are unwilling or unable to adjust to new market conditions
- Post-HIP speculative sellers can now test the market at minimal cost

Disappointment is the likely outcome for many sellers as evidence shows high launch price damages chances of securing a later sale

/see: http://www.rightmove...ex/october-2010

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 Cuthbert Calculus

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Posted 18 October 2010 - 08:18 AM

Stop reading HPC, Dr.

#12 Little Professor

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Posted 18 October 2010 - 11:02 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Oct 18 2010, 02:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
For some odd reason, Rightmove doesn't refer to prior year JUMPS in October asking prices, which have always been huge:

This year's 4.95% jump in Great London asking prices seems a shocker, until you see that last year's rise was 6.5%.

Fair point smile.gif

#13 DrBubb

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 08:32 AM

QUOTE (Little Professor @ Oct 18 2010, 07:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Fair point smile.gif

If you read DrBubb's property diary, you will see charts showing how quickly BDEV broken down to new Lows for the year after a brief blip on that news.

I think vendors will have to begin cutting prices aggressively, if they are going to have any hope of selling this Fall.

Bearish sentiment may settle in very quickly indeed.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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