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Posterity Calls - Record them here for GEI members


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 25 August 2010 - 03:01 AM

Posterity Calls - Record them here for GEI members
If you want a Record of: "what was said, and when"
Link to here: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Record
====================================

CALLING MAJOR TURNS ... is not an easy thing to do.

It can be done sometimes*, but I think this thread may show at least as many misses as amazing hits.

Let's all give it a shot !



== == ==
*My own evidence that it can be done is: The Timing & Content of my Global Edge Radio Podcasts
= = = = = = = = = =

/ GER Podcasts /
09.Aug10 :: Summer Dolrums or Eve of Disaster?
04.Apr.09 :: The Bull Trap in UK Property
11.Mar.09 :: Anticipating a Low in Stocks

Here's the Context, showing how the Podacast caught the EXACT Turns.
09.Aug10 High

04.Apr.09

11.Mar.09 Low


FYI: If you read thru DrB's Diary, you will find my wrong calls too.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 25 August 2010 - 03:02 AM

... as first posted on DrBubb's Diary ... here

QUOTE (Catflap @ Aug 25 2010, 11:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
For posterity I've called the peak in the dollar today, August 25, 2010 and now believe it will complete the right shoulder of a large head and shouders pattern once it falls back to 80. Once 80 is broken then the dollar will be on it's way to targetting the 2008 lows in Q1 2011.

* thought I would use 'large' today for a change.


Okay, here's the chart

DXY - Trade-weighted Dollar .. update


DXY : 83.20 +0.06 / Percent Change: +0.07%

My view is a bit different. I think the recent 80.00 was an important Low and US$/ DXY is headed higher
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 romans holiday

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Posted 25 August 2010 - 02:13 PM

Dow 5000
Gold 2500

Over the next few years.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#4 Catflap

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Posted 25 August 2010 - 07:15 PM

I did that post in the early hours of August 25, 2010 and put the date in case anyone thought I might have altered the quote. So what I am saying is that August 24, 2010 was the peak to a right shoulder of a larger H&S pattern that begun in mid-March 2010:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...id=p10838430822


Recent gold predictions:

QUOTE (Catflap @ Apr 23 2010, 12:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I agree with the gold forecast for June - I've got the end of June for a peak with my own work.



QUOTE (Catflap @ May 28 2010, 01:46 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
All my work is based on HUI and I am long gold mining stocks looking for a peak towards the end of next month (I'll put it here for posterity, but I'm looking for a peak around June 20/21) before a correction and then another move higher into late March 2011 from where I'll be out completely.


Should have said June 18/21 as took it off Stockcharts wrong which is just trading days - June 20 was a Sunday.

#5 Steve Netwriter

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Posted 26 August 2010 - 01:14 AM

Seasonality of Gold Broken

I predict that we have seen the loss of the "jewellery" seasonality as the major driver of the physical gold market.
That the major driver is now monetary worldwide, and that traders will no longer be able to trade gold the way they have become accustomed.


Fiat: What starts becoming worth less eventually becomes worthless.

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#6 G0ldfinger

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Posted 26 August 2010 - 10:50 AM

QUOTE (Catflap @ Aug 25 2010, 07:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I did that post in the early hours of August 25, 2010 and put the date in case anyone thought I might have altered the quote. ...

You also made a 50% down prediction to 2011/12, right? Was that in your diary?
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
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Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#7 Catflap

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Posted 26 August 2010 - 11:45 AM

QUOTE (G0ldfinger @ Aug 26 2010, 11:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You also made a 50% down prediction to 2011/12, right? Was that in your diary?


No, I've not made a 50% down prediction and try to avoid predicting where I think a price is going rise or fall to and by how much - I just try and predict when it's going to peak or bottom. Saying that, I do see a big fall in gold coming from a peak in late March 2011 to around 18 months later on a strengthening dollar and I believe it will at least be of the magnitude of the last gold correction (34%) and very possibly like the one in the mid-70's.... depends how strong the dollar is in 2012.

#8 DrBubb

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 01:17 AM

WILL SPX BREAK the 377d MA ?
It is a critical test, and we will know soon

Breaking the uptrend line (377d.MA) in a more meaningful way, if we do soon, should trigger a deeper slide.

One of my own charts, suggest a rally may be underway ... update : SPX-from2010 : RUT-long term
-- To Break, or Not to Break ? -- If no break, we get a rally.


Adding in volume, we get ... SPY-weekly : SPY-daily


I don't use "Money Flow" much (see above), but it certainly looks positive in the Daily chart of SPY

Here's a chart you might watch for a sign that a bigger rally may be underway:

PHM / Pulte Homes ... update


If the Fed or someone else can come up with something that will help Home Builders to rally, it may help inspire a big rally in the general markets.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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