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Summer Doldrums, or the Eve of Disaster? / Podcast


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 08:27 AM



2010 GER - Episode 01
Summer Doldrums, or the Eve of Disaster? / Podcast
GER#01 Aug.2010 / Experts: Skarica, Townsend, Hampton
==========================================

PODCAST : http://globaledge.po...ve-of-disaster/



Introducing Global Edge Radio, featuring the GEI Experts panel, wth Dave Skarica, Erik Townsend, and your GEI Radio host, Michael Hampton.

We discuss the short term and long term set-up in the markets, and examine the prospects from both a Bearish and Bullish point of view. Some indicators we look at include: unemployment data, the current preponderance of negative economic indicators, and the longer term impact of the hugely negative sentiment readings we saw back in late June. Does the bull market still have legs? Will a new rally be fueled by QE2? Or will it be overwhelmed by events associated with the Cardinal climax, or a big Elliott third wave to the downside? We also consider whether or not the market is now seeing a seasonal low in gold prices.

There was an error near the end of the podcast, in my reference to the Baltic Dry index. In fact, the chart I had seen was the “Aifreight & Logistics Index” - see chart: http://tinyurl.com/AirF-Aug6 (thanks, Hogwild) - and not the Baltic Dry Index, which has had a tiny rally by comparison. For those with sensitive ears, you will notice that there are some minor distortions in the quality of the audio, something we will endeavor to improve on future podcasts.

The issues in the podcast are discussed further in a thread on Global Edge Investors: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Doldrums
== ==

Here's the chart: SPX versus Aifreight & Logistics Index


QUICK LINKS:
Podcast : http://tinyurl.com/ger-doldrums
To Here : http://tinyurl.com/gei-doldrums
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 10:08 AM

Yes,
The "Erik T." in this podcast, is the same "Erik from Hong Kong" who has been calling into Financial Sense.

He also writes articles for Financial Sense.
And it was this interview: http://twobeerswiths...?post_id=620870
on TwoBeersWithSteve, that encouraged me to get in touch with Erik.
== ==



Dave Skarica's website is : http://AddictedToProfits.Net

And he is a regular interviewee on: http://howestreet.com/audiovideo/ ,
where he also provides some interesting charts, to back up his comments.

Here's one of his earlier Podcast (from Nassau!) on YouTube:

I am currently reading a draft of his new book, THE GREAT CYCLE
== ==

I am hoping to make an Expert's Panel a regular feature of Global Edge Radio,
and I welcome people to have a listen: http://globaledge.podbean.com/

Please tell others, or leave comments on GER if you like what you hear !
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 Hogwild

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 11:10 AM

Here is the Baltic dry.
I am having trouble loading the actual chart.
http://img444.images...9/balticdry.png

In edit (I cropped it - DrB)


#4 Hogwild

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 11:38 AM

You mentioned Semiconductors. Lagging the main market but there are some that have incredibly strong order books and prospects. The 200 hour ma looks to be crucial for the index though.


#5 Hogwild

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 12:18 PM

Agriculturals are leading


#6 DrBubb

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 12:31 PM

QUOTE (Hogwild @ Aug 9 2010, 07:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You mentioned Semiconductors. Lagging the main market but there are some that have incredibly strong order books and prospects. The 200 hour ma looks to be crucial for the index though.

Instead of "lagging" (which is abnormal), I think Semis may be leading the market lower
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 DrBubb

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 01:37 PM

MARKET SENTIMENT

This is an online poll
What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading?

Bullish 49.38% 241 votes
Bearish 38.93% 190 votes
Neutral 11.68% 57 votes

/update: http://apps.thestree...4D7E7?sid=40797

Citibank's Panic and Euphoria Index

/source: http://online.barron...ntreadings.html

Other Measures
====
Sentiment Charts x X : http://www.wallstree...s/sentiment.htm
Barron's Sent-Indices : http://online.barron...ntreadings.html
I.I. Investor's Survey : http://www.investors...ce.com/x600x400 : Other chart
Investors Confidence : chart / data: http://internet.stat...toricaldata.pdf
AAII Sentiment Index : http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/
Market Gauge Charts : http://tal.marketgau...ts/ChartTOC.asp
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 DrBubb

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 01:45 PM

You can SUBSCRIBE to future Global Edge Radio podcasts, here:

: :

http://www.podbean.c...ption?pid=43023

( It is FREE ! )
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 Hogwild

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 02:09 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Aug 9 2010, 01:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Instead of "lagging" (which is abnormal), I think Semis may be leading the market lower


One of my favourites (VEECO )in this sector is getting hit again this afternoon. Given that it is playing a key part in develpoing the lighting (LED) market and has just announced brilliant results and have upped forecasts it is difficult to understand the sell off . It has been an eleven bagger so I suppose people are taking some money off the table. Has just bounced off it's 200 dma.

#10 denarii

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 07:29 PM

bubb can you add it to the itunes podcast directory?

#11 ares

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 10:26 PM

Great discussion, knew it was going to be good when I heard a lovely clip from Kid Koala as the opening music smile.gif

For people who want to add it as a feed rather than having to register etc (what I got when I clicked the subscribe button, I used this url: http://globaledge.podbean.com/feed/ just copy and paste it into your thing as a new podcast.

Keep up the great work DrBubb!

#12 DrBubb

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 10:56 PM

JUMP IN HITS ?
More downloads of the podcast, which must have been due to these new links:
+
+ http://www.vidnewz.com/tag/doldrums

It was interesting to see the VidNews page dedicated to "Doldrums":
...more from there...

8.9.10 Summer Doldrums Dave's ETF RoundUp
Posted on August 9, 2010 by Dave. The stock market drifted higher today in its quietest session of the year. There is speculation that the Fed will signal potential steps to boost the sluggish economic recovery - etfroundup.com

"quietest session of the year" ?. Hmm


The Blogger U.S. Markets Shake Off Early Doldrums
U.S. markets shake off early doldrums. NEW YORK, Aug. 9 UPI -- U.S. markets opened flat Monday and picked up steam in the early afternoon. Disappointing data from a week ago and anticipation of a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee - luishipolito.blogspot.com

Deficits, Taxes Disillusionment Welcome To California's Budget
Patt Morrison for August 5, 2010 Deficits, taxes disillusionment welcome to California's budget doldrums The toll of Bell Fallout over salaries sparks change Hold the motherhood, please the increasing trend of childless women - scpr.org
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 DrBubb

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 11:09 PM

QUOTE (ares @ Aug 10 2010, 07:26 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Great discussion, knew it was going to be good when I heard a lovely clip from Kid Koala as the opening music smile.gif

I'm glad you liked it.
Actually, it is a brief clip from a piece composed by David Byrne, and it was the theme music for a wonderful film called "The Last Emperor."



You can here the whole piece here:
The Album :: http://www.maniadb.c...=116406&s=0&o=l

Here's the classic David Byrne music:

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#14 DrBubb

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Posted 09 August 2010 - 11:38 PM

Not everyone likes the Astro-cycles, as this comment from the CM website shows:

crash_watcher
Re: Daily Digest 8/9 - Martenson on TechTicker, Frugality = ...
Summer Doldrums, or the Eve of Disaster?

Great job Eric T, you articulated your views very well. I had to go back and listen twice to make sure that the host was making financial predictions in-part based on astrology. Cardinal climax, hmmm.....

(For those who may be unfamiliar with the Cardinal Climax, there are two threads that relate to it):

+ CC: When is it? : http://www.greenener...showtopic=10740
+ Arch Crawford : http://www.greenener...?showtopic=9644
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 DrBubb

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Posted 10 August 2010 - 05:51 AM

Art Cashin: Markets Are 'Forming a Top'
Published: Thursday, 5 Aug 2010 |

VIDEO: http://www.cnbc.com/...60562263&play=1
Previous appearance : http://www.cnbc.com/...ideo=1558998554

New weekly claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, according to a government data Thursday. Stocks seesawed, trimmed their losses after a weak open—then slipped again. Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, discussed his insights.

“I’m surprised by the muted reaction [markets] are having for a couple of reasons: This is a real-time number, fresh data—a lot of the other things we’re looking at are rear-view mirror,” Cashin told CNBC.

“I think the market’s [behaving] somewhat hopeful.”

The jobless claims data comes ahead of the government's July jobs report, scheduled for Friday. Economists expect to see that 65,000 jobs were lost from nonfarm payrolls, according to the latest Reuters survey.

“[Markets] may have a little room to go higher, but we’re forming a top here and we’ll keep an eye out for that next week,” said Cashin.

/see: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38575068
== ==

More Cashin appearances:
Mon. 9 Aug.: http://www.cnbc.com/...62543773&play=1
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#16 DrBubb

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Posted 10 August 2010 - 10:56 PM

(This was originally posted on DrBubb's diary, but I wanted it here too,
in case newcomers surf in here from the Global Edge Radio podcast):

QUOTE (Ret45 @ Aug 11 2010, 07:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The Dow's fight back after the Fed's announcement this evening looked unconvincing. The rest of this week could be a bloodbath for the markets.
edit: also, volume was light and we seem to have a head and shoulders on the daily Dow. Wishful thinking? We'll see tomorrow...

I count three hanging men, maybe four.



That could be enough to "choke" the market and break the uptrend

A "fall from Grace" out of this 7-day box, seems likely to me ... update


BTW, the box began during the Cardinal Climax period (with Magnetic material from Coronal Mass Ejections hitting Earth),
but that may be a mere coincidence
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 savetheclaypigeon

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Posted 11 August 2010 - 12:28 AM

QUOTE (ares @ Aug 9 2010, 11:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Keep up the great work DrBubb!


+1

Looking forward to the next podcast.
Would be especially interested in one featuring a few of GEIs regular posters, time zones and commitments notwithstanding.



#18 DrBubb

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Posted 11 August 2010 - 07:00 AM

A "fall from grace": http://yfrog.com/f1xxxmkg /

Could trigger another "flash crash": http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Box
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 DrBubb

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Posted 12 August 2010 - 07:19 AM

ERROR MESSAGE - seems we had too much success in attracting an audience
====
(I found out what happened):
GER hit the Monthly bandwidth limitation;

PROBLEM IS NOW FIXED! : and the podcast is available again !

go to: http://tinyurl.com/GER-Doldrums
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#20 50sQuiff

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Posted 12 August 2010 - 12:28 PM

Good discussion. Well worth a listen and I look forward to the next one.

It's good to actually get some debate and disagreement in a discursive environment. Most other financial podcasts I listen to (Puplava, King, GSR) are either all buddy-buddy agreement or a staged 'devil's advocate' pseudo-debate.
goldbu.gs - Live chat for gold bugs and GEI readers with physical premium tracking.

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