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GPC UK Data bank / & "Bull Trap podcast"


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 18 July 2010 - 08:53 AM

UK Property Databank - & GEI podcast (from April 4th, 2009)
Cycles and Builder share prices help to call Turns : Link to here
================================================
Posted Image : 4 April 2009 Podcast : Charts-thread#6389

The 4.Apr.2009 podcast called for a 12 months "bounce" in property prices - & we saw that!

READ THE CHARTS HERE ! (And examine the actual DATA below)
They whisper their messages to those who can decipher them, as we have done on GEI.

Posted Image
Updated :
------------- H&N Index (average of Halifax & Nationwide) .................. : .... Ratio: Rightmove's Gr.London-to: Rest-of-UK
Posted Image: Posted Image


/ Rightmove's Greater London Offer prices----------------- : : : : Knight-Frank's Prime Central London vs. R's Gr.London

Posted Image: Posted Image

The Rest of the UK (H&N Index, with Gr.London prices extracted)*
Posted Image:
*(I assume that Greater London has 12% of UK's homes- see post #108)

BARRATT bellwether:

Barratt Dev'l / BDEV : Weekly chart : Monthly chart : Daily chart : http://tinyurl.com/BDEV-610d

"A jump to through to a new high, could clear the way for 400p - 500p" -July 2013 ... update : BDEV-thread

Posted Image :

BDEV has given us excellent early warnings of TURNS in UK house prices.

(A detailed REVIEW of my historical market predictions, using BDEV, follows in Post #2 below, and also on the BDEV thread.)

=========================================

GPC - DATA bank: / WHAT HAS HAPPENED since 2009:

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx
When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th?
2009:

J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 145,372 -1.22% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6%
F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 145,334 - 0.03% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% :L
M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 145,628 + 0.20% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6%
A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 147,579 +1.34% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7%
M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 151,917 +2.94% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5%
J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 150,994 - 0.61% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7%
Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 152,818 +1.21%/ 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6%
A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 152,542 - 0.18% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3%
S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 155,538 +1.96% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1%
O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,214 +0.43% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+0.24% :140.6% :H
N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 154,303 - 1.22% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9%
D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 153,999 - 0.20% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5%

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx
2010
J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : 153,844 - 0.10% / 163,481 169,777 168,390 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% :sa
F : : 229,398 : 427,987 : 153,896 +0.03% / 161,320 166,857 166,928 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2%
M : : 229,614 : 417,461 : 151,803 - 1.36% / 164,519 168,521 168,435 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2%
A : : 235,512 : 421,822 : 160,233 +5.55% / 167,802 168,202 168,593 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% :
M : : 237,134 : 420,203 : 160,582 +0.22% / 169,162 167,570 167,207 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2%
J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 : 159,587 - 0.62% / 170,111 166,203 165,686 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%
Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 : 159,348 - 0.15% / 169,347 167,425 167,497 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%
A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 : 158,607 - 0.46% / 166,507 = n/a = 168,124 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5%
S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,360 - 0.79% / 166,757 = n/a = 161,974 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1%
O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 158,788 +0.91% / 164,279 = n/a = 164,949 165,275 : £164,777 :- 0.25% :143.7% :H
N : : 229,379 : 417,279 : 153,519 - 3.32% / 163,133 = n/a = 164,622 163,268 : £163,201 :- 0.96% :140.5% :
D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : 150,592 - 1.91% / 162,249 = n/a = 162,803 161,498 : £161,874 :- 0.81% :137.4% :

2011
J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 150,732 +0.09% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,145 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% :
F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 151,888 +0.77% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,697 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% :
M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,331 +0.95% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,712 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% :
A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 155,218 +1.23% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,393 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% :
M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 156,544 +0.85% / 167,208 = n/a = 161,039 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% :H
J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 157,449 +0.58% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,430 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% :
Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 156,499 +0.60% / 168,731 = n/a = 163,981 164,714 : £166,723 :+ 0.48% :141.9% :
A : : 231,543 : 418,008 : 153,946 - 1.63% / 165,914 = n/a = 161,743 162,076 : £163,995 : - 1.64% :141.2% :
S : : 233.139 : 427,889 : 155,117 +0.76% / 166,256 = n/a = 161,132 162,375 : £164,316 : + 0.20% :141.9% :
O : : 239,672 : 450,210 : 155,900 +0.50% / 165,650 = n/a = 163,311 164,311 : £164,981 : + 0.40% :145.3% :
N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 150,627 - 3.38% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% :
D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 147,373 - 2.16% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% :

2012
J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% :
F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 : +0.16% :145.1% :
M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 : +1.60% :145.0% :
A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : 152,815 : +0.63% / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% :
M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : 152,803 : - 0.01% / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% :
J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 : +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% :
Jl : : 242,097 : 460,304 : 151,633 : - 1.11% / 164,389 = n/a = 161,094 162,619 : £163,504 : - 0.60% :148.1% :
A : : 236,260 : 454,875 : 150,173 : - 0.96% / 164,729 = n/a = 160,256 160,200 : £162,465 : - 0.64% : 145.4% :
S : : 234,858 : 456,237 : 149,719 : - 0.30% / 163,964 = n/a = 159,486 160,437 : £162,201 : - 0.16% : 144.8% :
O : : 243,168 : 478,071 : 151,123 : +0.94% / 164,153 = n/a = 158,426 159,818 : £161,986 : - 0.13% : 150.1% :
N : : 236,761 : 483,709 : 147,163 : - 2.62% / 163,853 = n/a = 160,879 161,016 : £162,435 : +0.28% : 145.8% :
D : : 228,989 : 464,398 : 144,953 : = N/A = / 162,262 = n/a = 163,845 161,903 : £162,083 : - 0.22% : 141.3% :

Mo. : Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx
2013
J. : : 229,429 : 480,890 : 144,748 : = N/A = / 162,245 = n/a = 162,844 160,613 : £161,429 : - 0.40% : 142.1% :
F. : : 235,741 : 486,298 : 146,748 : = N/A = / 162,638 = n/a = 163,600 162,011 : £162,325 : +0.56% : 145.3% :
M : : 239,710 : 496,298 : 148,259 : = N/A = / 164,630 = n/a = 163,943 163,930 : £164,280 : +1.20% : 145.9% :
A : : 244,706 : 493,635 : 151,518 : = N/A = / 165,586 = n/a = 166,175 167,026 : £166,745 : +1.50% : 146.8% :
M : : 249,841 : 509,870 : 153,391 : = N/A = / 167,912 = n/a = 166,898 167,831 : £167,898 : +0.68% : 148.8% :
J. : : 252,798 : 515,243 : = N/ A = : = N/A = / 168,941 = n/a = 167.984 170,184 : £169,563 : +0.99% : 149.1% :
==========================================
mom:+1.18% : +1.05% :: Est. DI : : 149.1% / +0.61% = n/a = : +0.44% : +0.48% : +0.99% :

*Actual figure Hometrack index; others are calculated from mom changes.
Criteria for indices : http://www.housepric...e-price-indices
Comparison of Criteria : http://firstrung.co....asp?pagekey=115
Other : http://www.acadametr...HousePrices.php

===
Tags: Halifax, Nationwide Index, SA Seasonally Adjusted, NSA, Bull Trap, UKtrap

Links: Halifax : Nationwide :Rightmove : Hometrack : Home.co.uk : KnFr-PrimeC


Mortgage Approvals
= : - 2006 - / - 2007 - / - 2008- / - 2009- / - 2010- / - 2011- / - 2012- /

J. : 121,000 : 121,000 : 73,000 : 31,000 : 48,198 : 45,723 : 58,728
F : 115,000 : 120,000 : 72,000 : 37,937 : 47,094 : 46,967 : 48,986
M : 117,000 : 114,000 : 64,000 : 39,230 : 48,901 : 47,557 : 49,860
A : 108,000 : 109,000 : 58,000 : 43,201 : 49,871 : 45,166 : 51,823
M : 115,000 : 113,000 : 42,000 : 43,414 : 49,815 : 45,940 : 51,089
J. : 119,000 : 113,000 : 36,000 : 47,584 : 47,643 : 48,421 : 44,192
Jl : 117,000 : 112,000 : 33,000 : 50,123 : 48,722 : 49,239 : 47,312
A : 118,000 : 106,000 : 32,000 : 52,317 : 47,372 : 52,410 : 47,665
S : 124,000 : 100,000 : 33,000 : 56,215 : 47,474 : 50,967 : 50,024
O : 129,000 : 089,000 : 32,000 : 57,345 : 47,185 : 52,743
N : 131,000 : 083,000 : 27,000 : 60,518 : 48,019 : 52,854
D : 115,000 : 072,000 : 31,000 : 59,023 : 42,563 : 52,939


/source: http://www.housepric...e-approvals.php

=== === === === ===

Global Edge Radio website : http://globaledge.podbean.com/
Old GE-conf. call #3 thread : http://www.greenener...?showtopic=6389

Property's Long Cycles Peaks
US Peaks : 1871, (+16): 1887, (+18): 1905, (+20): 1946 / LargerChart :
Posted Image

UK Peaks : 1948, (+25): 1973, (+16): 1989, (+18): 2007
Posted Image


FORECASTS for the US Property Cycle.

I predicted a 2006 peak years before it arrived - and then less than 2 years after the peak,
I produced THIS chart:

Centex Chart (CTX) - a US Stock (2006 peak predicted 5-6 years ago) ... an update
Posted Image
Centex / CTX merged with Pulte / PHM - and so I am watching PHM now as my US bellwether stock.
How did that forecast of a 2012 Low work out?

Weekly PHM .. PHM-2004-to-2012
Other Builders : HOV : TOL : XHB : HGX : ITB // Rates : TLT : TNX

Posted Image

The Low in PHM came in about one year early.


CHART SOURCES:
=============
Spline's website :: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/
Ziknik's charts - :: http://BustBubbles.com
Chart of Indices :: http://www.telegraph...-in-charts.html
Tracking UK Incomes :: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-incomes
UK Household sizes-- :: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-hhsize
Links to here: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-data : http://tinyurl.com/HPC-data
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

DrBubb

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Posted 18 July 2010 - 02:59 PM

My own Forecasting record ... using UK Builders as a BELLWETHER
=================================================================

BDEV, and other Builders have given us many excellent early warnings of TURNS in UK house prices.

SUMMARY OF HOUSE PRICE PREDICTIONS since 2005

Posted Image

My predictions go back to 2006, when I started this website, and even before that. In fact, I started making predictions in 2004 (or earlier) on HousepriceCrash.co.uk ("HPC"). From the beginning, I had a Bearish bias, but I studiously watched the share prices of the UK Builders for clues of market turns. Back then, I developed a tool, an index of five Builders' share prices (the "combi-5" index.) The idea was that I could use "Real time" data from share prices, to make predictions of turning points in UK house prices, employing the same techniques of technical analysis that I used in trading stocks.

The big advantage was that I would not have to wait weeks of months for an Index figure to be released. My historical research also suggested that the Builders index would turn earlier, giving an early warning of 6 -12 months ahead of when the Index figures turned lower. I had observed this Earlier Turn phenomenon in various markets, including Hong Kong, the USA, and the UK.

Here's a chart from 2011, showing how my bellwether index preceded the downturn in UK Housing indicies.

Posted Image

Combi-5 Index = (TW + BDEV + PSN + WLB + BBY)

The chart above was produced by a UK website ( http://HousePrices.uk.net ) which employed the techniques that I developed and explained on various HPC threads, now sadly deleted. The five builders included: Taylor Woodrow, Barratt Developments, Persimmon, Wilson Bowden, and Balfour Beatty. Due to mergers and stock splits, it became increasingly difficult to keep the index consistent, so I eventually switched using mainly Barratt (symbol: BDEV.L) as my principal bellwether.

In October 2005 :
I got a brief false signal, suggesting the Combi-5 composite index had broken a key MA trendline. (This was driven mainly by one weak stock, BBY-2005, which broke below the 252d trendline for about a month. While others like BDEV-05 and PSN-05 never got close. And TW-05 only just touched the 252d MA) The false signal only lasted a few days, and a sharp bounceback rally in November persuaded me that my Bearish call was wrong, so I switched to a "Cautious" stance from Outright Bearish. A strong two year rally into mid-2007 ensued. This proved to be the final blowoff phase of the UK property cycle,

In Mid- 2007 :
BDEV-07 and PSN-07 both rolled over in late 2006. Finally in June 2007, both broke their 252d MA, confirming that a major bear market for UK property was underway. I was so confident that this signaled a major Trend change, that I wrote an article about it ("The Rich Feast In London Has Left A Property Bubble In Its Wake"), which was picked up on various online websites, such as Financial Sense (July 2007) and Escape Artist (Aug. 2007.) I also did an interview with Dominic Frisby in July 2007, which I later turned into a Youtube video:

VIDEO :

This proved to be a very timely forecast, since the various indices peaked one-by-one as the second half of 2007 wore on:

: UK INDEX- : PeakPrice : Month/Year : === Month/Year : LowPrice : Change (mo's down)
+ Halifax----- : £201,081 - Aug. 2007 ... Low: Mar. 2009 : £157,066 - 21.9% (in 19 months)
+ "Haliwide": £192,490- Aug. 2007 ... Low: Feb.2009 : £153,477- 20.3% (in 18 months)
+ Nationwide : £186,044 - Oct. 2007 ... Low: Feb. 2009 : £147,746 - 20.6% (in 16 months)
+ Rightmove- : £241,642 - Oct. 2007 ... Low: Jan. 2009 : £213,570 - 21.6% (in 15 months)
+ Gtr.London : £412,731 - Nov. 2007 ... Low: Jan. 2009 : £386,653*- 6.31% (in 14 months)
=====
*There was One Month with a Lower low (Aug.2008, at £379,162*- 8.1%, in 9 months)

The "Haliwide" Index (which is the average of Halifax and nationwide), fell 20.3% over 18 months, or an average of about 1% per month. Based on Elliott Wave patterns, I expected the entire correction to proceed as a Zigzag, with a rally and then a second low years later. So I was prepared for the rally to come when few were expecting it*, but I doubted whether many could make much money buying property near the first low. Nevertheless, I thought that the big drop in interest rates engineered by the BofE would be enough generate a healthy, multi-month rally.

/ You can hear some of my thoughts near the bottom of that first Low, in a GER podcast : recorded in April 2009,
In hindsight, I was mostly right on the big picture for UK property, but missed the very substantial outpeformance by London./

USING BDEV to Forecast House Prices in the 2009-13 "Range Trading phase"

From major double LOWS in 2008 (July at 22p, and Nov at 43p), Barratt/BDEV had a long A-B-C rally into a Sept. 2009 high at 280p. At a key point in the rally, I noticed that BDEV's price suddenly shot up in late March 2009, and broke a downtrend. So in early April 2009, I predicted a 12 months "Dead Cat bounce" in UK property prices. (Want to hear that forecast? There's a link to a Apr.4th, 2009 podcast - LINK - that you can still listen to, while looking at the Charts I described: CHART LINK.) Today, with perfect hindsight we can see a major low was made in HaliWide prices at £153,477 in Feb. and £154,066 in March 2009 - but those March figures were not available until mid-April - so my early April 2009 podcast was both early and accurate.

Posted Image

The rally I expected in 2009 duly arrived as buyers responded to the BofE's near-Zero Interest Rate Policy.

Trading Range
I did not think that the downwards correction was over after just a 2-year drop: I suggested watching BDEV for a sign that the 2009 house price rally would peter out. From Sept. 2009 and its 280p peak (=184p, on a split-adjusted basis), BDEV began to fall. This drop in the share preceded a fall in actual house prices, as measured by various property indices. A key point in the decline, was when BDEV slid back below its 252 day/1 year moving average. That occurred in Feb 2010 (in a chart better adjusted for the rights issue - different than the one shown above.) I correctly anticipated that the confirmed break of BDEV's 1yr-MA would signal a renewed drop in UK Houseprices.

Within a few weeks, in Spring 2010 a second downleg in UK property prices began. And it was clearly reflected in the HaliWide / H&Nindex (the average of the non-seassonally adjusted Halifax & Nationwide indicies), which peaked in April 2010 at £169,287. The new downwards drift in UK prices came despite continued ultra-low interest rates. But prices only fell by £7,946 (-4.7%) to £161,341 in seasonal low of Jan. 2011.

: Posted Image

BDEV slid lower for most of 2010, but the rate of decline slowed and the stock bottomed in late Nov.2010 at near 71p, which was well above the Nov 2009 low of 31p. Then, a year-end rally in BDEV stock began, taking BDEV back near 90p by the end of 2010. We watched to see if the bounce in BDEV and other UK builder stocks was going to be strong enough to push back above the 252d/1 year MA near 100p, thinking if that occurred, it should signal a reversal the downturn drift in UK property prices.

BDEV rose above 110p, pushing beyond the 252d MA, suggesting that Spring 2011 would bring "upwards bounce" UK-wide home prices. But the action was unconvincing, despite the upwards trend.

Early in 2011, I asked on GEI: "Will the UK house price rally last? I think not."

The Homebuilder rally faded after the Spring of 2011, and BDEV rolled over at 120p and slid into the summer, as global stock markets suffered a correction. BDEV made a low of 65P in Aug. 2011. And following that pattern with several months lag, the UK Haliwide index peaked at £166,723 in July, and drifted down to a low of £160,554 in Jan. 2012. That was 5-months after the Low in Barratt's stock.

In Q4-2011, the stock market pessimism was overdone. Global stock markets rallied, and that helped to propel a nice jump in BDEV, all the way up to 150p+ in March 2012. That was a 34% higher high than we saw in 2011. But so far, UK-wide Houseprices have lagged behind the levels seen in the prior year. Perhaps Barratt's share price is benefitting from its London focus, where house prices ARE hitting new highs. Even so, as I write this in July 2012, the stock remains in a clear long term downchannel, albeit it has risen to the top of that channel.

BDEV has surged again after a Spring dip, rising to over 140p but remains below its 153p high. A drop in BDEV back below key support at/near 110p on high volume (If we see that), would be a sign that Crash Cruise Speed (with falls averaging more than 0.5% per month), is likely to resume in the housing markets. I expect we will see that after the London Olympics, when I expect realism to return to UK property markets.

I still expect a serious slide in UK House prices into 2013 or later.

= = = = = = = =

BARRATT Development Plc / BDEV - - - The Big Picture ... update

Posted Image


MY TRACK RECORD - Many Accurate forecasts since 2007
===============
Latest : In July 2010, On GEI I announced the UK Bull Trap rally was over.
I saw this as the end of the "Dead Cat Bounce" that I previously forecast in early April 2009.

image: http://img251.images...5194/001vef.jpg

LISTEN / It is still relevant !: The Bull Trap was predicted in a Podcast in early April 2009
link: http://globaledge.po...-in-uk-housing/
shortcuts: http://tinyurl.com/GER-UKtrap / or : http://tinyurl.com/geiradio
The techniques continue to work, and they are now helping to anticipate a big slide

GEI Call#3: Predicting a (one year) Bull Trap in UK Housing
===========
This GEI Conference call was originally recorded on 4th.April.2009 and examined the cyclical and psychological case for a 6 to 12 months rally in UK residential property prices. Michael Hampton ("DrBubb") hosted the conference with callers in Hong Kong and the UK. We examined charts showing the expected cyclical turning points, and pondered the impact of interest rates and government policy. The sentiment was highly bearish, but the "bellwether" of US and UK builders was already signalling the likelihood of an upturn. (Although this call happened over 12 months before it was posted on Podbean, the techniques used continue to be relevant, and in July 2010 were signalling a resumption of a Beat market in UK property.)

I was expecting : A One year (or so) - "Dead Cat Bounce"

I was predicting a sizable rally in UK housing prices. But warned that Buying for the Long term might be potentially dangerous-to-one's wealth.

UK versus US housing prices / an important divergence:
- 20.5% drop in UK housing (straight down in a clear channel- 1% a month over about 18 months), compared with:
- 30% drop in US housing prices (over 31 months- also 1% a month)

People's wealth was hit by falling property in the US, and they stopped spending. The US will get over it before the UK.

Old Poll on HPC : http://www.housepric...howtopic=109612
At April 2009 - 50% saw no bounce in the UK. Only 3 people (3%) said that the low was in place.
People expected house prices would continue. Few people saw any signs to an upturn.


2009 SURVEY - Shows the power of Contrarian thinking, how usual my views were:

BACK AT THE LOWS in April 2009,
Few saw that the Turn was already underway - most expected more falls ahead.

Here's the old survey from HPC in April 2009:

POLL: Speed of UK House price declines (118 member(s) had cast votes in April 2009)
====

How are you experiencing house price declines in your area of the UK?

[13.56%] : Property price falls are speeding up (16 votes )
[50.00%] : Crash cruise speed underway - prices are falling at a fairly steady rate (59 votes )
[16.10%] : The rate of decline has slowed noticeably (19 votes )
[: 2.54%] : Prices seem to be stable - have stopped falling (3 votes )
[: 0.00%] : Prices are now showing a slight uptrend (0 votes )
[16.10%] : The picture is very mixed. No conclusion is possible (19 votes )
[: 1.69%] : No comment (2 votes )

My belief about a bounce, or signs of stability, if we see them :

[50.00%] : There will be no bounce this year (59 votes )
[38.98%] : What I am seeing, will be nothing but a Spring bounce (46 votes )
[: 5.08%] : The stability could eventually lead to a recovery (6 votes )
[: 2.54%] : This is THE LOW in the cycle (3 votes )
[: 3.39%] : No comment (4 votes )

Availability of finance that I am seeing :

[: 5.08%] : It is virtually impossible to borrow to buy a home where I am (6 votes )
[20.34%] : Loans can be obtained by those who have a 40-50% deposit, and sufficient income (24 votes )
[35.59%] : Mortgage loans of 70-75% LTV are available (42 votes )
[: 6.78%] : 80-85% loans are available (tell us more) (8 votes )
[: 4.24%] : Loans of 90-100% can be obtained (5 votes )
[27.97%] : No comments (33 votes )

/see: http://www.housepric...ic=109612&st=30
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 ecoface

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 09:51 AM

Bubb,

You should not use BDEV when using longer term charts because they diluted their shares massively last year you will recall.

I would strongly suggest you use Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Berkeley Homes instead.
Otherwise it undermines your argument.
Just thought I'd offer that.
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing"
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Markets are never wrong, opinions are. ó Jesse Livermore

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 09:55 AM

GOLDFINGER's Houses-in-Gold Chart
=========================================

First, thanks to Goldfinger, on the Main board's property thread:
(G0ldfinger, dated Mar 4 2011, 04:40 PM) :
Posted Image
Alongside this chart, you may want to look at cycles for more "granular" detail, especially with the "Builders as a bellwether"

== == ==

(ANSWER to Question from previous post):

QUOTE (ecoface @ Jul 19 2010, 06:51 PM)
Bubb,
You should not use BDEV when using longer term charts because they diluted their shares massively last year you will recall.
I would strongly suggest you use Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Berkeley Homes instead.

Otherwise it undermines your argument.
Just thought I'd offer that.

=== UNQUOTE ===

I see you point, but BDEV was the best indicator up to that point, and was the one that I referred to in the 2009 Podcast.
So into that way, I am stuck with it, if I am updating those discussions.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 ecoface

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 10:05 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jul 19 2010, 10:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I see you point, but BDEV was the best indicator up to that point, and was the one that I referred to in the 2009 Podcast. So into that way, I am stuck with it, if I am updating those discussions.

Has anyone listened yet?


Can you poss see if CC will allow it to be added to FBB so that it can be auto'd via itunes library? You will also get more hits I reckon.
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing"
Edmund Burke (1729-97)


Markets are never wrong, opinions are. ó Jesse Livermore

#6 DrBubb

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 11:14 AM

QUOTE (ecoface @ Jul 19 2010, 07:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Can you poss see if CC will allow it to be added to FBB so that it can be auto'd via itunes library? You will also get more hits I reckon.

Great Idea.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 DrBubb

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 03:51 PM

UK BUILDERS are selling off rather heavily today .. update
Posted Image

I suppose posting my podcast did that. / Haha
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 ETF

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 06:20 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jul 19 2010, 10:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I see you point, but BDEV was the best indicator up to that point, and was the one that I referred to in the 2009 Podcast. So into that way, I am stuck with it, if I am updating those discussions.

Has anyone listened yet?


I actually think it is still more than valid - the dilution is "baked in the cake" and actually shows part of the "phase of max stress". If anything BDEV should have more "leverage" to sentiment having watered down their shares.

IMHO of course.

#9 DrBubb

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 11:19 PM

Competition heats up amongst Property Forecasters


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 DrBubb

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Posted 20 July 2010 - 09:16 AM

THREE MONTHS SLIDE has already happened (in the Halifax Index)...

Last week the Halifax reported the third consecutive monthly drop in house prices, which the lender's chief economist, Martin Ellis, said was largely in line with expectations. He, like many other commentators, expects prices to either flatline or fall by the end of the year.

/more: http://www.guardian....-housing-market
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 pyewackitt

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Posted 20 July 2010 - 09:58 AM

Three month slide and already we're seeing these:

Five reasons not to panic over house prices
http://uk.biz.yahoo....use-prices.html

Personally i don't see any reason why we shouldn't be following the US into a prolonged 2nd round of house price falls... and soon.

#12 Hogwild

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Posted 20 July 2010 - 10:43 AM

Funding for a government scheme that helps protect homeowners at risk of repossession is to be reduced, the housing minister announced today. That should get the bowels of the market shifting!

#13 ecoface

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Posted 21 July 2010 - 08:11 AM

Interesting...

The house we sold in Summer 2007 at £430k, has just gone back on the market for exactly the price we marketed it for back then at £450k.

The buyer has incurred legal fees, stamp duty and made some improvements on the house, so he will probably be out of pocket unless he gets the asking price at £450k.

It is a little frustrating because in the last 3 years I could have stayed in that house, and not rented; my rent is more than my mortgage was. If he gets in excess of £420k then I have made a big mistake selling in summer 2007.

The reality is that the funds from my sale haven't made that much either for me to be able to stand up to my wife and say it has been worth living out of boxes for a few years!!
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing"
Edmund Burke (1729-97)


Markets are never wrong, opinions are. ó Jesse Livermore

#14 Ziknik

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Posted 21 July 2010 - 11:54 AM

QUOTE (ecoface @ Jul 21 2010, 09:11 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
...
If he gets in excess of £420k then I have made a big mistake selling in summer 2007.

The reality is that the funds from my sale haven't made that much either for me to be able to stand up to my wife and say it has been worth living out of boxes for a few years!!

You made your decision to sell using the best information available at the time and you were probably right to do so.

You couldnít have known the scale of fiscal stimulus and the slashing of interest rates. Even the people who predicted interest rate falls have been surprised at the way theyíve been kept down while inflation is (and forecast to be) over the BofEs target.

If I was you, I would forget about the old house. You cannot change the present situation and you probably cannot learn anything from it either.

Instead, I would have a good review of my investment choices, pick out successes & failures and examine the reasons for success & failure. Judge whether success or failure will be realised on your existing investments. Thereís a lot more to be gained from this exercise and it will help you going forwards.

Iím someone will come along in a bit and mention the horrific crash thatís coming round the corner. The truth is it might not come for some time yet so you have to work hard and make your investments outperform housing whether HPI is positive or negative.


#15 WiseBear

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Posted 21 July 2010 - 12:14 PM

QUOTE (ecoface @ Jul 21 2010, 06:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Interesting...

The house we sold in Summer 2007 at £430k, has just gone back on the market for exactly the price we marketed it for back then at £450k.

The buyer has incurred legal fees, stamp duty and made some improvements on the house, so he will probably be out of pocket unless he gets the asking price at £450k.

It is a little frustrating because in the last 3 years I could have stayed in that house, and not rented; my rent is more than my mortgage was. If he gets in excess of £420k then I have made a big mistake selling in summer 2007.

The reality is that the funds from my sale haven't made that much either for me to be able to stand up to my wife and say it has been worth living out of boxes for a few years!!


I know what you mean - it has been similar for me too.

There is no guarantee that they can get out in time however and the potential for a huge loss is still there. I'd be very happy in cash at the moment.
Lucky I converted to A$ so I'm currently ahead on the exchange but if you want to see a real housing bubble come to Oz.










DEFLATION now and next - High Inflation after (maybe)
Permission to call Wisebear names is GRANTED.

#16 romans holiday

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Posted 21 July 2010 - 12:33 PM

QUOTE (WiseBear @ Jul 21 2010, 09:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I know what you mean - it has been similar for me too.

There is no guarantee that they can get out in time however and the potential for a huge loss is still there. I'd be very happy in cash at the moment.
Lucky I converted to A$ so I'm currently ahead on the exchange but if you want to see a real housing bubble come to Oz.

The sword of Damocles is hanging over the market. Can you imagine the anxiety heavily indebted homeowners face. Better to sit in cash without the risk.

My plan's to live in a 4WD camper on returning home... what I would pay in rent will pay the mobile home/ box off in a year or so.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#17 igglepiggle

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Posted 21 July 2010 - 12:46 PM

QUOTE (ecoface @ Jul 21 2010, 09:11 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Interesting...

The house we sold in Summer 2007 at £430k, has just gone back on the market for exactly the price we marketed it for back then at £450k.

The buyer has incurred legal fees, stamp duty and made some improvements on the house, so he will probably be out of pocket unless he gets the asking price at £450k.

It is a little frustrating because in the last 3 years I could have stayed in that house, and not rented; my rent is more than my mortgage was. If he gets in excess of £420k then I have made a big mistake selling in summer 2007.

The reality is that the funds from my sale haven't made that much either for me to be able to stand up to my wife and say it has been worth living out of boxes for a few years!!

Thanks to HPC I, too, sold in 2007. Thanks to GEI, I bought gold (Goldmoney) with the proceeds and have more than doubled up. I am completing tomorrow on a slightly better house mortgage free.

My wife still doesn't believe I know what I'm doing though sad.gif

#18 DrBubb

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Posted 21 July 2010 - 12:46 PM

Mon.: Hali.SA Hali.nsa Na'wide : Rt'move HNindex : Del-Idx
D : : 16X,- - - 167,260 162,103 : 221,463 164,681 : 134.5%
2010
J. : : 169,777 165,514 163,481 : 222,261 164,497 : 135.1%
F : : 166,857 165,997 161,320 : 229,398 163,659 : 140.2%
M : : 168,521 167,808 164,519 : 229,614 166,164 : 138.2%
A : : 168,202 170,772 167,802 : 235,512 169,287 : 139.1% - HIGH in H&N-index
M : : 167,570 169,204 169,162 : 237,134 169,183 : 140.2%
J. : : 166,203 166,395 170,111 : 237,767 168,253 : 140.5%

QUOTE (pyewackitt @ Jul 20 2010, 06:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Three month slide and already we're seeing these:
Five reasons not to panic over house prices
http://uk.biz.yahoo....use-prices.html
Personally i don't see any reason why we shouldn't be following the US into a prolonged 2nd round of house price falls... and soon.

LOL.
These comments are ridiculous !
: Property portal Zoopla has also pointed out that average UK house prices have clawed back 50% of the value that was lost during the recession, having risen by an average of £21,667 (11%) since March 2009. It added that the London market has more than bounced back, with property prices now higher than they were during the previous 2007 peak! :
(You should ask yourself WHY?, and whether the robbing of savers and taxpayers, to fund a pre-election skam for the Brown regime is repeatable.)
: In addition, the main providers of indices havenít made any changes to their predictions for the year, which remain generally flat. :

The TRUTH is, IF you are going TO PANIC, you should PANIC EARLY, ahead of the crowd, and get a good price.
Those who panicked back in Sept, or Octtober 2007 when prices began to fall did themselves a big favor.

Those that hang on, see prices slide 15%, 20%, or more and, THEN PANIC, are going to regret it.
I hope the reporter who wrote the article takes his own advice, so he can learn an important lesson.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 DrBubb

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Posted 21 July 2010 - 01:06 PM

QUOTE (igglepiggle @ Jul 21 2010, 09:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Thanks to HPC I, too, sold in 2007. Thanks to GEI, I bought gold (Goldmoney) with the proceeds and have more than doubled up. I am completing tomorrow on a slightly better house mortgage free.
My wife still doesn't believe I know what I'm doing though sad.gif

LOL.
What does she think you should have done?


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#20 DrBubb

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Posted 21 July 2010 - 01:09 PM

QUOTE (WiseBear @ Jul 21 2010, 09:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I know what you mean - it has been similar for me too.
There is no guarantee that they can get out in time however and the potential for a huge loss is still there. I'd be very happy in cash at the moment.
Lucky I converted to A$ so I'm currently ahead on the exchange but if you want to see a real housing bubble come to Oz.

Where did you guys store your wealth?
You probably would have done better with more Gold, eh?
(Me. too. BTW. That is: more gold, and fewer Gold shares would have served me better.
But the investment in HK property worked well, especially when you translate back to weaker Sterling.)

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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