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Kress Cycles - The Big Trouble is 2012-14


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#1 silverharp

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 05:30 PM

Anyone looked at Kress cycles, or have any useful articles on it. Cliff Droke seems to mention him/it from time to time, ut hard to get a sense of it from a couple safehaven articles. Has he been interviewed anywhere?

http://www.safehaven...l-standing-2011

QUOTE
One of the most important contributions made in the science of market analysis is the series of equity market rhythms known as the Kress Cycles. The one who discovered these cycles, Samuel J. "Bud" Kress, has done for cycle theory what virtually no one else been able to accomplish, namely discovering a series of inter-related "hard" cycles that are all harmonically related and which provide an accurate context from which to view the past, present and future financial and economic climate.

Kress accurately predicted the top of the secular bull market in 2000 with his cycles as well as the credit crisis of 2007-2008. He also called the bottom in March 2009 and, more recently, forecast an interim top for April 2010. For the last 10 years, Bud has published a series of interim reports - roughly once per year - called "Special Editions" (available through his SineScope advisory service, 15 Phoenix Ave., Morristown, NJ 07960). Previous Special Editions have provided important context for the bear market of 2000-2002, the recovery bull market of 2003-2007 and the most recent credit crisis and bear market. His Special Edition VII published in 2008 entitled, "Final Opportunity 2009," projected that the following year 2009 would be the last year to begin a long term liquidation of conventional equities for those who failed to do so at the all-time double high in 2007. Special Edition VIII of 2009 was titled, "Remaining Five Years: 2010-2014" and discussed the potential for a bear market in 2010, a mini cyclical recovery bull market in 2011, and a once-in-a-century three year period of historic change, turmoil and dislocations to begin in 2012 and persist until 2014.

His latest Special Edition (the ninth one) has just been released and is entitled, "Last Bull Standing 2011." It may well go down as being the most important one yet, for if Mr. Kress is correct in his prognosis, we will soon enter the final phase of the financial market recovery as the last of the key yearly cycles peaks next year..............................


#2 DrBubb

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 11:16 PM

continues...

Samuel J. “Bud” Kress,... projected that the following year 2009 would be the last year to begin a long term liquidation of conventional equities for those who failed to do so at the all-time double high in 2007. Special Edition VIII of 2009 was titled, “Remaining Five Years: 2010-2014” and discussed the potential for a bear market in 2010, a mini cyclical recovery bull market in 2011, and a once-in-a-century three year period of historic change, turmoil and dislocations to begin in 2012 and persist until 2014.

His latest Special Edition (the ninth one) has just been released and is entitled, “Last Bull Standing 2011.” It may well go down as being the most important one yet, for if Mr. Kress is correct in his prognosis, we will soon enter the final phase of the financial market recovery as the last of the key yearly cycles peaks next year.

Kress predicts that 2011 will culminate the dominance of the U.S. financial and economic system and begin a depression, the magnitude of which will be matched only by the one of 1930-1933. As such, the time between now and late 2011 will represent perhaps the last opportunity for investors to build (or rebuild) balance sheets and portfolios before the final crashing phase of Kress’s namesake 120-year cycle.
. . .

In the latest Special Edition, Kress predicts the coming 120-year cycle bottom could bring with it America’s third “great” depression, a World War III equivalent and a third (social?) revolution. The emphasis is laid on the number three, for as Kress points out, when it comes to the cycles – as well as life in generally – events typically come in threes.

...The current 60-year cycle also bottoms in 2014 along with the 120-year cycle.

/see: http://www.timeandcy...articles/?p=778
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 11:18 PM

INTERVIEW

Q: What is the basis for the market's cycles?

A: Mathematics has been defined as the most precise language. Consequently, the mathematically based cycles are an orderly conduit though which the market conveys its directional behavior. In effect, my methodology tracks the least common denominator, which is time. I believe the market itself is the ultimate authoritative opinion. With an understanding of the cycles, the sequential series can be applied to both yearly for investment purposes, or weekly for interim-oriented traders.

Q: You place a lot of weight on the Fibonacci numerical sequence in your cycle work, don't you?

A: Yes. Let me give you just one example of how important the Fibinoacci sequence is. A deck of cards is constituted similar to a year: 52 cards (weeks), four suits (seasons), 13 cards in a suit (weeks in a season). The numbered cards begin with two, the basic prime number, and end in 10, a decade. The width of a conventional deck is 5/8 of the length (two Fibonacci numbers), the beginning of the 62% odd infinitum ratio. Fibonacci numerology is clearly evident in various aspects of life. Whenever a bear market or contracting economy occurs, the blame game begins. However, this is a futile exercise for “it's all in the cards.”
. . .

Q: Earlier this month you published a special edition to your SineScope publication entitled, “The Grand Bull's Terminal Years: 2009-2011.” It contained an ominous warning for the years 2012-2014. Please elaborate.

A: The term “Grand” was included since it refers to the composite of all the cycles. Its duration is 120 years and I refer to it as the revolutionary cycle. A revolution occurs with each cycle bottom which changes the three basic institutions that govern our lives: political, economic and social. The first revolution in this country was political since it involved war in the 1770s when America was freed from an occupied to an independent territory. The second occurred in the mid 1890s when America transcended from an agricultural-based to a manufacturing-based economy. This was an economic revolution. The third 120-year revolutionary cycle is scheduled to bottom in 2014. To complete the third institution, the upcoming Grand cycle bottom should be a social revolution. The final three years prior to the bottom are ominous, historically, for they include a depression and a devastating war. Since “history always repeats itself” and there is yet to be a precedent to violate this, the years 2012, '13 and '14 have grave, broad-based implications. The various potential is too lengthy to discuss now but they are discussed in the Special Edition.

Q: If an investor shares your conclusions based on the 120-year revolutionary cycle, what is the best strategy for the years ahead?

A: The answer is very simple and straightforward. Liquidate all conventional equities on strength in 2011. Notwithstanding the negative potential that exists during 2012-2014, funds can be 100% committed and produce gainful returns. However, the old generals who have fought the old wars during the past half century with the “buy and hold for the long term” philosophy will have to change their mindset. I have difficulty with this approach, for long term we're all dead. It appears that this is a rationalistic euphemism for the inability to manage and avoid interim risk, thereby awaiting the market to recover the investor's loss.

/more: http://www.marketora...rticle5820.html

Part 2: http://www.marketora...rticle8511.html
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 11:27 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jul 18 2010, 07:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Q: Based on your knowledge of market history and the cycles can you make some general comments about the long-term future of the gold price?

Kress: I don’t track gold on a year to year basis. But there are two thoughts and one must be kept in mind. In a lifetime there are two major periods to buy gold. The first is in the face of hyperinflation because it’s the ultimate hedge. In hyper inflation began in the late 1960s until 1981 for about 15 years gold went from $35 to around $800 an ounce. The second period to buy gold is in the face of economic collapse, etc., because it’s the ultimate storehouse of value. After peaking in 1980 when hyperinflation ended and disinflation began, gold bottomed in 1999 at about $250/ounce at the beginning of economic winter. It has been going up since then. In the future years it should begin to accelerate when economic collapse comes to bear. Any portion of the similar increase from ’66 to ’81 bodes for astronomic prices in gold from here. In the more recent decades the “buy and hold” mentality of the long-term fundamental investor was proven gainful with conventional equities. But at the revolutionary changes at the turn of the century this has gone the way of the buggy whip. Consequently, to replace that gold will be the contemporary equivalent and one should retain long-term positions in gold and add to positions on interim corrections. Due to all the innovative vehicles available in recent years without having to buy the bullion, one can participate with gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Q: In reference to the tough times ahead that your long-term cycles predict, what U.S. states do you think will emerge relatively unscathed by the economic turmoil in the years to come?

Kress: I think the agrarian states with minimal industrial composition economies will be the best relative performers. States like Iowa, South Dakota and Wyoming which have virtually no industrial base but are primarily involved in the production of essential food commodities should escape the turmoil. When have you ever heard of the agricultural states ever having major financial problems? No, it’s always the Rust Belt states of the east or the go-go states like Florida, California and Nevada that have the problems. Owing to the stability of agriculture, the western agrarian states should be relatively stable [during the “hard down” phase of the 60-year cycle which is the equivalent to the average K-wave].

Q: Getting back to the stock market, you’re looking for a final cyclical bull market before the last of your long-term cycles peaks next year, correct? What is the significance of 2009 in the cyclical scheme of things? Could the coming cyclical bull market be of the “blow off” variety?

Kress: It’s a recovery rally bear market in the economic winter scheme of things and the 2009 high will be significantly lower than the 1999 high. This will be discussed in detail in Special Edition 7 to be forthcoming in the next several months. A maximum upside target of 1,200-1,250 in the S&P 500 is not to be exceeded. I refer to the 1999-2000 high as the terminal high not to be equaled for several decades. The 2009 high will be the recovery high not to be exceeded for a decade or so. While referring to this as a recovery cyclical mini bull market it might also be referred to as an interim advance in an ongoing long-term bear market. Such occurrences can be powerful but equally deceptive.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 11:42 PM

4 YEAR CYCLE LOW
For those who follow the Kress cycle, a key question will be:
When will the 4-year and 8-year cycle bottoms occur? My best guess is October 2010.
But not all agree...

4-YEAR CYCLE AMBIGUITY
Submitted by Carl Swenlin on Fri, 16 Jul 2010
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Looking at the 4-Year Cycle chart below we can see that a cycle low is typically identified as an obvious price low accompanied by bottom on the monthly PMO that occurs shortly after the price low. Alas, it doesn't always work that way, and we have to guestimate the location of the cycle trough such as we did in 1986. In that case we have a slight price dip accompanied by a downward dimple in a rising PMO. The 1987 Crash is a more obvious place to declare a cycle trough, but we prefer to mark the spot where the trough ought to be so as to more or less maintain the equal nominal spacing between each trough. The reason for this is that the cycle tends to get back on schedule after periods where the cycle influence is not evident in price movement.

In rising markets there is not always a PMO bottom to help identify the cycle trough. As with 1986, only a PMO downward dimple in a rising PMO confirmed the trough in 1998 and 2005. The problem with the presumed 2005 cycle trough is that it was followed two-and-a-half years later in 2009 by a severe price low and the lowest PMO bottom since the 1932 price low. It looks a lot more like a 4-Year Cycle trough than the 2005 guestimate, but it is six years from the 2002 trough, and I am highly reluctant to change my current assumptions because history shows that cycles do tend to get back on schedule.



There are two conclusions we can draw at this point. First, it is possible that we have correctly identified the 2005 cycle trough, and that there will be another decline into significant price low by the end of this year. If that doesn't materialize, we will have to assume the current global financial catastrophe has knocked the cycle out of phase, and that there will be another 4-Year Cycle low toward the end of 2013. I wouldn't bet a paycheck on either one of those scenarios, and there are, of course, other possible outcomes. I hate to say it, but I think this one is going to have to be called after the fact.

/more: http://financialsens...in/4-year-cycle
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 DrBubb

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Posted 18 July 2010 - 02:42 AM

I throw Martin Armstrong's cycle in here



Note that: 3/2009 was the LOW from the 2007-9 slide, and maybe that 2011.45 date will be the high in the Kress Cycle,
after a Four Year cycle low in 2010 (?)
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 silverharp

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Posted 18 July 2010 - 06:10 PM

thanks for the info. I am a bit suspicious about time cycles overusing Fib. as cycles do contract and stretch


To add to the mix, TW's view is that tthe last 4 year cycle low was Mar09 so he is pencilling in end of 2012 as the next 4 year cycle low. The most bearish scenario is that the 4 year cycle peaks in less than 20 months which if it does will statistically lead to a lower low then Mar09. Also by virtue that we are in a bear market the absolute low has not been seen yet.

I'm not sure about Carl's timing as he has 06 as a cycle low instead of viewing it as a stretched cycle from 02?




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