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The 18-Year Property Cycle


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 09 March 2015 - 05:08 AM

18 Year Property Cycle: A look back and forward

 

PropertyCycles_zpsxerohade.png :

 

Properties Cycles have interested Fred Harrison, and me for a long time

... and also an increasing number of others, including academics

An Introduction to Fred Harrison's 18 Year Property Cycle:

( July 24, 2008 )

other Videos : Harrison's Cycles : Part-1 : Part-2 : ------> Prediction : "A possible Low in 2012" - A near Bullseye !

PropCyc-FrH_zpsxx7lxtip.jpg : PropCyc-UK1_zpsktiircnq.png

 

The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle | Cato Institute

www.cato.org/publications/commentary/great-18year-real-estate-cycle

On January 3rd, US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke delivered a major speech at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association.

 

Housing Debt and the 18-year "Real Estate" Cycle - The ...

www.progress.org/views/.../housing-debt-18-year-real-estate-cycle/

Feb 19, 2014 - Land economists have identified a regular land price cycle averaging 18 years that consists of a 7 year moderate rise in prices, a slight lull, then ...

 

The 18 Year Property Cycle - Progressive Property

www.progressiveproperty.co.uk/blog/18-year-property-cycle/

Jul 20, 2014 - But recently I've been getting asked where property prices are in the 18 year cycle. This is the invisible market gauge that charts the cycle ...

 

18 Year Real Estate Cycles - Next Bust 2024? - BiggerPockets

www.biggerpockets.com › Forums › General Real Estate Investing

Oct 14, 2014 - 20 posts - ‎12 authors

I have been researching real estate cycles and found real estate economist Homer Hoyt theory of 18 year real estate cycle in the 1930's.

=== ===

 

G-Ex thread : https://hongkong.geo...d314657-21.html


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 10 March 2015 - 02:24 AM

Charts from old threads

 

UK:

PropCyc-UK2_zpswfdsujyl.jpg : PropCyc-UK1_zpsktiircnq.png

 

PropCyc-UK3_zpsrwjzjki7.jpg : PropCyc-UK4_zpsy5dwwuqy.jpg

 

The 18-year Cycle in the USA - latest Low was 2012 (with Builders shares bottoming in 2011)

housing1969-2005_faber_zps6wvncezv.gif

The real-estate cycle in the U.S. can be summarized with the following table:

 Peaks in  Interval   Peaks in  Interval   Depressions
land value  (yrs)  Construction (yrs)             interval
1818         --            -----         --           1819     --
1836        18          1836        __          1837     18
1854        18          1856        20          1857     20
1872        18          1871        15          1873     16
1890        18          1892        21          1893     20
1907        17          1909        17          1918     25
1925        18          1925        16          1929     11
1973        48          1972        47          1973     44
1979          6          1978         6           1980       7
1989        10          1986         8           1990     10
2006        17          2006        20          2008!   18
2024?      18          2024?      18          2026?  18
====
Real-estate values and construction have peaked one to two years before a depression, and have stayed at peak levels until the onset of the downturn. The historical evidence is consistent with the theory that speculative booms in real-estate prices and construction act as an impetus for the downturn itself.

==

> more charts: http://www.nowandfut...eal_estate.html

 

US: in America, PHM / Pulte Homes is the main bellwether ... Update : all data : 5-years :

PropC-PHM_zpsilm21ixo.gif

HK-property-vs-HSI.jpg

 

HK:

PropCyc-HK1_zpsfpku8jii.png

 

CCLI-2015_zps154e6ad8.png

The Chart above from 2015. suggested "Peak in 2015-2017", and the actual peak was Sept. 2015.

Next Low is due 2019-2021


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

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Posted 10 March 2015 - 02:33 AM

The "cycle debate" from Hong Kong's G-Expat:

 

1 /

OTP., I googled the 18 year cycle as you suggested and I came across a lengthy thread on the other expat forum. One from 5 years ago in which you adamantly predict we're at the peak (stating ultra low interest rates, etc. as reasoning). So here we are 5 years later and you don't seem to have changed your tune....yet we can all see where the market has gone.

 

2 /

Can you provide the link to me by PM, please? I think I have been pretty consistent -- 
The math works the same now as before:
1997 + 18 = 2015 : peak to peak
2003 + 14 = 2017 : 14 year "up-cycle"
I have long been worried about Low rates, and I did sell some flats too early. However: The most expensive flat, I sold earlier this year, after securing cheaper "hedges" in HK, Philippines, and Thailand.
I don't think I was using different addition then or now. So it would be interesting to see what you based your comment upon. (I can certainly show you some old forecasts with the same math as here.) 

 

3 / (W. sent me a link to a 5-year old thread where I made some posts about Property cycles. Which I have looked at carefully):

My comments then, seem to be consistent with what I have posted on Geoexpat.
I did sell some properties 5-6 years ago, to get rid of my debts, etc
Did he miss this?
(End of Post #15, on the old thread from 5 Years Ago):
"Eventually, I want to be cashed up and ready to buy HK property again, but probably not until sometime in 2011, when I think HK property prices might be 15-20% lower. If I am right, we will both find ourselves bullish on HK when others have lost faith after a good selloff later this year and into 2011. 

My own cycle work on Long Term cycles suggests the final top in HK property may not come until 2015-2017. So a deep selloff coming when global rates rise might be something to welcome. But I want to buy when prices are low and people are fearful, not when yields are low and people are complacent."

=== ===
In fact, a dip did come, but it was less than expected. I found a property in early 2013, which my partner wound up buying in Jan. 2013 (she was born in HK), rather than me in my name, which would have required higher taxes.

 

As HK Property prices are now hitting New Highs, well above 2010 : update

CCLI-2015_zps154e6ad8.png

People may have forgotten the Bearish market sentiment in late 2009 / early 2010

and also how rising prices have been driven by the smaller-than-needed Supply additions

 

HKPropSupply_zpski6qgsyv.jpg


Ratio: Property prices -to- Income
 
Hong-Kong-3.jpg
 
 
TOM HOLLAND's WARNING - for Business in Asia (Property too) - SCMP's Monitor in 2010
Don't get in the Way, it's a stampede for the exits

+ If Europe's banks sustain big losses on their US$2.8 Trillion of PIIGS govt. debt in the event of a sovereign default, they will be forced to cutback on their lending to other parts of the world, including Asia,
+ In 2008, developed world banks reduced their exposure to Asia by almost US$300 Bn, with devastating impact
+ Europe a big customer: Asian cores supplied 42% of the EU's total import demand, 2/3rds of which is electronic gadgetry. HK is especially vulnerable, with 12% of goods shipped thru HK.
+ Asia's FX reserves will cushion the blow, but company profits (and jobs!) will be hit

...Meantime...
HK Property agents are changing their forecast to "No Growth":

Forecaster--- : - Old - : New Forecast
Credit Suisse : + 10% : -5-7% in 2 mos.
JonesLangLS: Higher : Sideways
Knight Frank. : Higher : Sideways
Midland Rlty. : Higher : Lower
UBS - - - - - - -: Up 35% into end 2011
Nomura - - - - : Up 20% into end 2011 
==
 
And there were press comments like THIS one back in mid-2011:
Hong Kong Waits for Property Bubble to Burst
http://www.nytimes.c...e-to-burst.html

They are not alone. The pitch of anxious voices has been rising in this property-obsessed city. Prices have zoomed up close to 70 percent since the start of 2009 — the 24.2 percent rise for the 12 months through the end of March alone put Hong Kong at the top of a comparison of 50 countries, according to a report released this week by the Knight Frank agency. The activity has left many owners and investors wondering if the notoriously volatile Hong Kong market is about to shift again.

Several analysts are suggesting the market is headed for a downturn of as much as 30 percent. “We believe the Hong Kong property market is overheating, raising the possibility of a sharp correction in prices,” Bei Fu, a credit analyst at Standard & Poor’s, wrote in a report released this month.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 10 March 2015 - 02:58 AM

PROPERTY STOCKS as Bellwethers - sometimes give "false" signals

 

Back in 2010, I was using Henderson Land (HK-12) as my principle bellwether for HK Property price moves.

At first, I thought it was giving a clear signal of a drop:

"Eventually, I want to be cashed up and ready to buy HK property again, but probably not until sometime in 2011,

when I think HK property prices might be 15-20% lower"

But later, it moved higher

 

HK-10 / Henderson Land ... update : 10-days

HK12-fr2008_zpsj5fe7vbx.gif

 

Funnily enough, the HK-12 chart traced out what I had expected for HK property with a big drop (-XX%)

into a late 2011 Low.

 

The long term chart of HK-12 suggests some important resistance level had been hit near HK$57 ... update

 

HK12-All_zpsfxobpreb.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 the bugler

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Posted 11 March 2015 - 02:14 AM

This theory is a favourite of mine because it puts into a logical order something which most people inherantly feel but can't explain..that there is a cycle. Not that I trade in property but I am a home owner so I like to know where I stand value wise.

 

I was in the unfortunate postion of buying my first property in the late Eighties at the top...Not a very good start to the property ladder..Circumstances conspired and I needed a place to live....rental property was not as readily avaiable then as it is now...Consequently I faced 10 years of negative equity before we enjoyed what seemed a brief spell in the noughties when I could have sold and made money before we slumped back again in 2008.

 

I actually did see the peak in 2007 and placed my property on the market.receiving a very good offer at the time. and contemplating moving to a larger property using alot of leverage that was available back then...I think I felt uneasy about the level of debt required and if I would ever pay it off ..so I decided against it and remained where I was although I still had the feeling I should sell to lock in my gains since I was convinced we were at the peak.....Prices have still not recovered to that 2007 level in my region.

 

At present property is moving again it seems... and I have noticed a pick up in sales recently of places that were weighing on the market...I get the feeling a backlog of sellers that were waiting to move is starting to clear...although thats just my gut feeling not based on actual figures but what I have seen on the ground.

 

Looking forward and using the 18 year cycle theory. I have 2020 - 2024 marked as the significant period of growth in property prices and 2022 as the optimum time to sell.So if I were someone trading in property I think I would want to invest around 2018 before the market became aware and sell 4 years later. This assessment would not apply to London since I regard that as a special case. Just my opinion using the theory.

 

 

 



#6 DrBubb

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Posted 12 March 2015 - 10:07 AM

It is not easy to catch those Cycle turns, even when you see them coming...

I actually did see the peak in 2007 and placed my property on the market.receiving a very good offer at the time. and contemplating moving to a larger property using alot of leverage that was available back then...I think I felt uneasy about the level of debt required and if I would ever pay it off ..so I decided against it and remained where I was although I still had the feeling I should sell to lock in my gains since I was convinced we were at the peak.....Prices have still not recovered to that 2007 level in my region.

. . .
Looking forward and using the 18 year cycle theory. I have 2020 - 2024 marked as the significant period of growth in property prices and 2022 as the optimum time to sell.So if I were someone trading in property I think I would want to invest around 2018 before the market became aware and sell 4 years later. This assessment would not apply to London since I regard that as a special case. Just my opinion using the theory.
 

 

I wonder where you live?

The problem with the 18 year cycle is... London was never allowed any sort of decent correction in 2008-9,

because UK rates were quickly brought down to ultra-low levels (driving Sterling down, and getting the foreign buyers in,

to prop up the market prematurely)


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 DrBubb

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Posted 12 March 2015 - 10:07 AM

The Property cycle in Singapore has been less than 18 years (like 15-16 years)

 

Singapore-Prop-Price-2_zpspqwc3qjc.jpg

 

The Top is in, apparently.

This is from today's HK Standard, pg.18

 

Slipping in Singapore - in the Overseas Property column by Tony Liaw

 

+ Urban Redevelopment Authority data shows prices dropped 4% last year, after +1.1% in 2013

+ Secondary market flats were down: Luxury flats averaged S$2,650 (HK$14,908) psf: - 6.2%

+ New condos were down 17% (!) to S$2,450 psf

+ Rents also fell, being down 3%, after a 0.9% gain in 2013

 

CapeRoyaleSing_zpso4cyigxi.jpg

 

A construction worker walks by the largely vacant Cape Royale condominium in Sentosa Cove


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 the bugler

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Posted 12 March 2015 - 12:03 PM

It is not easy to catch those Cycle turns, even when you see them coming...

 

I wonder where you live?

The problem with the 18 year cycle is... London was never allowed any sort of decent correction in 2008-9,

because UK rates were quickly brought down to ultra-low levels (driving Sterling down, and getting the foreign buyers in,

to prop up the market prematurely)

 

I am in the West Country. I agree it's not easy to catch the turn even though you know it's going to happen. I think rising prices give you a sense of complacency and it's easy to wait too long. Before you know it the tide has turned. I think the correction here in 2008-9 was about 25% and I would say prices have now recovered approx 20% of that. We are light years behind the London boom but often it takes 3 or 4 years for us to feel the ripple of rising prices there.



#9 DrBubb

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Posted 17 March 2015 - 01:31 PM

The QUICKENING of the Cycle ?

An 18 year Cycle shortened to about 16 years in Singapore and HK (1981-1997)

 



The Property cycle in Singapore has been less than 18 years (like 15-16 years)

 

Singapore-Prop-Price-2_zpspqwc3qjc.jpg

 

The Top is in, apparently.

This is from today's HK Standard, pg.18

 

HK-Prop-1980_zpsxbx7gyy3.png

 

hKPROP-colliers2_zpsckjp21ep.png


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 DrBubb

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Posted 22 April 2015 - 06:08 AM

Using the 18 year Cycle - we should be close to a Top in HK.

 

1997 + 18   = 2015

2003 + 14   = 2017 - the "up" phase is normally 14 years

Ideally then: 2016 +/- 1 year

 

But we may get a Top in stocks first... with the Peak in property to follow a few months later

 

Hong Kong Property vs. the Hang Seng Index : HSI-update-all : chart below w/o lines

 

HKprop-vsHSI-2_zpswaiqdvky.jpg

 

> source: http://www.chinadail...t_15253493.html


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 DrBubb

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Posted 14 May 2015 - 12:38 PM

Tony Caldaro is still Bullish on US Property

 

Housing update 2015

 

After identifying the bull market top in this sector of the economy in 2005/2006, and then watching it collapse. We did a lot of work, while many were bearish, discovering which of the multitude of indicators were important in anticipating a bear market low. As a result we have written several reports over the years. The latest one should lead back to the previous reports: https://caldaro.word...housing-update/.

 

When the double bottom, we had been anticipating, arrived in 2011, we waited for a new bull market confirmation, which occurred in early 2012. Since then our leading and coincident indicators have remained bullish. In fact they continue to rise.

hpermits.png?w=640&h=293

Building permits have risen from a 2011 low of 542k to 1102k in 2014/2015. While they continue to remain somewhat depressed, compared to the past 50 years:http://research.stlo...2/series/PERMIT. We expect them to rise to about 1500k before this bullish cycle ends.

hnahb.png?w=640&h=293

Home builder bullish sentiment has increased from a low of 8% in 2009 to a recent high of 58% in 2014. As long as it continues to rise we see the bull market in housing continuing. Historically, housing prices rise for 6 to 12 months after both of the above indicators have already turned bearish.

 

hcase.png?w=640&h=485

 

New home prices, which drive existing home prices, have increased from a low of $250k in 2011 to a recent 2014 all time new high of $384k.

That is over 50% in just three years:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASPNHSUS. The average sales price of all homes sold in the US http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASPUS is now at record highs as well. Even the Case-Shiller index, which measures the cost of home building excluding inflation, has risen 29% since its 2012 low. This has already exceeded our expected 25% increase.

 

hhsold.png?w=640&h=485

 

With mortgage rates remaining low, household debt as a percentage of disposable income at multi-decade lows: http://research.stlo...ed2/series/TDSP, homeownership levels still on the decline: http://research.stlo.../series/USHOWN/, and the relatively low level of single family houses sold, this bull market could continue a lot longer than most are anticipating. Best of luck in your real estate investing!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.c...c/1269446/tenpp

==

https://caldaro.word...ng-update-2015/


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#12 DrBubb

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Posted 20 May 2015 - 03:13 AM

MILK CARTONS? - Kowloon's odd Man Wai buildings, a product of regulations

 

MilkCarton_zps6ffjx0ud.jpg

 

Rent controls and changing regulations came together to "inspire" the construction of the milk-carton-like

Man Wai buildings in lower Kowloon.

 

These buildings are now in a "prime" location thanks to the construction of the XRL Rail station just 1-2 minutes walk away.

 

How did buildings like this get designed? Today's SCMP (pg.B8) provides the answer.

 

A population boom in HK in the 1950's raised the colony's population from 600,000 to 2.3 million.

And the stresses that came with this, triggered rent controls and changing building regulations.  With rent controls in place,

it became difficult to evict tenants, and was almost impossible to redevelop old buildings.

 

In 1955, new building regulations permitted considerably higher structures, raising average building heights from 3.6 stories

to an average of 9.4 stories for buildings constructed from 1960 to 1962.  And there was an easing of rent controls, which

had spurred redevelopment, and new constructions proceeded at "a breakneck pace."

 

A plot ratio amendment in 1962 contained an odd loophole, allowing buildings build to older specifications to be built up to

Jan. 1, 1966, and there was a "disastrous building rush" between 1962, and 1965.  To gain extra floors, landlords introduced

set-backs allowing them to add as many as 3-7 extra stories.  These had to be constructed with "steps" at a 76 degree angle,

to allow light to reach street level.

 

This great building rush led to excess construction, and may have been a cause of bank runs and recession after 1965, and

even of the 1967 riots, speculates Professor Richard Wong, writing in THE VIEW column of today's SCMP.

 

TIMING Hong Kong's Property CYCLE

 

Peaks : 1965 + 16? = 1981 +16? = 1997 + 18 = 2015  (numbers need adjusting)

Lows ---------> 1969 + 16 = 1985 + 18 == 2003 +16/18 : 2019-21 

 

ccil.jpg: source

 

xxx

/ source: http://202.72.14.202...charts/ccil.jpg


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 DrBubb

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Posted 10 November 2015 - 12:52 PM

CYCLICAL FORECASTING - has worked well in property marketsCCLI-2015_zps154e6ad8.png

 

But many do not think that way

 

Q: (from G.K.)

I agree sentiment is important but surely to drop 30% there must be economic rationale behind such sentiment. Since possible market peaks around September very little has changed economically - rate raise may be more likely however I believe the impact will be nominal and already allowed for (they have been due to rise for months). The increasing developer supply has also be discussed for months. And if anything the economy has improved if you look at China share prices.
I still believe that if land sale prices do not fall by a large amount and/or unemployment starts to rise any fall will be limited.

 

A:

G. K., 
I do not forecast the way that you were taught to forecast.
The traditional way is not very effective. Wait and see how my forecast works out.

For me, markets move in cycles and patterns, and they can be observed in historical charts.  The main driver is sentiment, and the cyclical "learning process" that is going on, as sentiment changes.  The traditional guys, who are less accurate, will pin the fundamental "reasons" to the market moves after they happen.  To me, they are working with backwards logic, and my approach is forward looking.  So don't ask me for "my" reasons, since we can all identify them later, after the fact.

Like anyone, I can speculate what the bearish factors might drive the market lower.  And my starting point would be to look at the massive gap between Prices and Rents.  Prices are up 205.9% to an index level of 305.9 since 1999, and Rents are up just 77% to 177.  If Prices backtrack to where rents are now - and return to their historical 1999 ratio to rents, they would fall by 42.1% (177/305.9= 57.9% ) - if rents stay where they are now.

So you can ask: Why have Prices  climbed so much more than Rents:
+ Interest rates have fallen to ultra-low levels, the lowest in history
+ Supply has been constrained, and only now is rising faster than demand
+ Mainland China buyers have been big buyers since the 2003 low, but less active since the cooling measures were introduced - but many still become Hong Kong ID holders and buy when they can without paying the extra tax.  That's a source of extra demand, and things could happen to turn some of these mainland owners into sellers.

So any of the these three factors might change in a negative way, or all three, and these adverse changes would undermine the property bull market, and bring prices back towards their historical relationship to rents.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#14 DrBubb

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Posted 11 November 2015 - 06:37 AM

( From AsiaXpat ):

 

Gr. K.
Here is another interesting way to look at property prices;
Quoting from the link below:
Alfred Lau, a property analyst from Bocom International predicted the potential fall in prices from looking at real estate prices relative to property stocks. Lau said that Hong Kong home prices are now the highest compared to property developer stocks in almost two decades.
==
http://www.retailnew...cted-fall-2016/
 
Economic factors seem to be hitting those Developer shares:
 
"

Cusson Leung pointed out that the shrinking retail market in Hong Kong, mainly driven by the closure of many luxury brand stores, was one of the main factors in driving down the property sales. The other factors were rising unemployment, shaken investors’ confidence over concerns that China’s growth is slowing, and that the global markets may suffer from a planned in the interest rate hike in the United States.

According to Leung, “Pressure on the economy is the biggest concern here instead of an interest rate hike.”

Alfred Lau, a property analyst from Bocom International predicted the potential fall in prices from looking at real estate prices relative to property stocks. Lau said that Hong Kong home prices are now the highest compared to property developer stocks in almost two decades.

“It is a sign that the property market will drop as much as 20 per cent in the last quarter this year,” he said.

There were other signs telling the same story.

In August, Hong Kong’s private-sector economy saw its sharpest contraction ever since 2009. This is a distress signal for the economic health of Asia’s financial capital."

 

(Response):

Good find!
That's more or less what I am saying too.
"Hong Kong home prices are now the highest compared to property developer stocks in almost two decades"

In my idea of the typical cycle, Property Shares peak first: maybe 6-12 months ahead of the actual property prices.

And then they lead property prices lower. To me, that's the message of that article.

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 DrBubb

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Posted 11 November 2015 - 07:06 AM

US Property - Recovery nearing an end?

 

If the e-wave count on this chart is accurate. the rally in General Housing stocks since the 2008-9 Low maybe be nearly over

 

HGX / Housing General Index ... All-Data : 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 2-yrs: Last: $232.99 / PHM-10yrs / IYR-10yrs

 

HGX_zpsd52lvm7j.png


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#16 DrBubb

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Posted 22 December 2015 - 05:55 AM

ccli_chart_zpssvymayi9.png : update : forecast

HISTORY: Prices up Fivefold
Low was June 2003 : with average price of HK$ 1,941 per sf, gross
High was November 2015 : at HK$10,487 (per Midland Realty)
Prices hit a peak in mid-September, before retreating 6%, says Centaline,
and are still up 4% for the year

Supply/Demand balance points to price falls
+ Transaction volume in November was just 1,891 - the worst monthly figure in 20 years
+ Interest in selling is rising - with potential sellers up 15% to 1,197 among 11 major estates
+ Viewings were down 20% week-on-week - Buyers are willing to wait for lower prices

=== ===

 

property_may2014.jpg

 

Bearishness in the SCMP seems to be increasing

(12/21) : Owners cut prices amid sluggish home sales
+ Cuts of up to $1 million, to speed up sales
+ 282sf home at Golden Lion Gdn in Tai wai, sold at $2.73mn, lowest price of the year
+ North point: Braemar Hill Mansions 1,105sf: price cut from $20.05mn to $19mn
+ North point, Healthy Gdns: price reduced from $6.6mn to $6million
+ Though owners cut prices by 5-10%, few buyers were biting. They want a bargain
+ Interest in selling is rising - with potential sellers up 15% to 1,197 among 11 major estates;
Meanwhile, viewings dropped by 20% week-on-week

(12/22) : Home prices trending down after 12 years of increases
+ Expected Fed rate rises and China's slowdown are denting confidence
+ Experts are forecasting price falls of 5% to 30% in 2016
+ Prices for new launches are down as much as 20%, with more cuts expected (on fresh supply)
+ Owners are reluctant to cut, but sliding rents may force more realism
+ Hemera keys are now available, and as owners offer these flats into the market this has driven rents are down to $19.50 psf, a new low.  Hemera is in LOHAS Park. In Nov 2015 the average monthly rents in LOHAS was $22 per sf (Centaline), so these new flats on top of the MTR station are offered at more than 10% below the market price
+ Louis Chan Wing-kit of Centaline expects prices to fall 15% by end Q1-2016
+ JLL was the least bearish, expecting a drop of just 5% in 2016


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 DrBubb

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Posted 20 February 2016 - 12:56 PM

The Long term, Property Cycle in the USA is contra-cyclical to Asia.

.
And so, property there may perform well, while it is weak or falling in Hong Kong, China, and some other countries in Asia
.

ccli_chart3_zps8bxnqbzp.png
.
This is one of the reasons why I am investing in Philadelphia.
I do think Philly may show some impact from a weak stock market (if we see that).  But Philly property is not overvalued in the way that it is in NYC, etc


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#18 DrBubb

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Posted 18 March 2016 - 01:16 PM

This is easy to listen to - ie not loaded with too much detail

 

TPP069 The 18 Year Property Cycle

 

Published on 31 Jul 2014

Original link to the show:
http://thepropertyhu.../tpp069-18-y...

 

(personally, I think the up-phase in the UK property cycle could be disrupted by falls in London

which never showed much of a correction after the last peak, and could be hit by a vicious "mid-cycle"

correction starting any time - which would be linked to world events - a global financial crash?)

 

The boys revised their old thoughts not long ago

 

TPP121 Is the 18 Year Property Cycle a scam

 

Published on 3 Sep 2015

Find out more at http://thepropertyhu.../tpp121-is-t...


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 DrBubb

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Posted 19 March 2016 - 02:38 AM

Fred Harrison sees a 2019 Peak in UK property prices

 

Fred Harrison: A British recession will happen in 2019

FredHarrison.png?w=300&q=55&auto=format&

 

Britain is on course for a recession in 2019, a year before the general election. The crash will not happen before then because politicians and central bankers will appear not to lose their nerves.

The QE (quantitative easing) solution to the 2008 crash has rendered monetary policy useless as a fine-tuning instrument. Policymakers failed to adopt fiscal reforms that could have rescued the UK, so politicians have no tools to guide Britain out of the current turbulence.

Worldwide, central bankers will talk up any good news, hoping to persuade consumers to spend, even as wages continue to be battered. In the US the Fed will not take any chances in the run-up to November’s presidential election. Oil producers will finally do a deal to drive up petrol prices, which will be sold as a step towards normality. Debts will continue to grow, until a peak in house prices in 2019. Then the game will be up.

Fred Harrison is an economics commentator and author of Boom Bust

==

> http://www.theguardi...-china-slowdown


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#20 DrBubb

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Posted 20 March 2016 - 03:12 AM

Property Prices versus Inflation

 

In many countries, Property prices have way-outpaced price inflation,

and the "system is broken" (as one website described it), thanks to ultra-low interest rates

 

Latest Ratios : Timing: PropIdx: Prices: Ratio : (2004 was 1.00 )
Hong Kong---- : '15-q2 : 345.03 : 137.87 : 250.3%
Singapore----- : '15-q2 : 175.50 : 130.09 : 134.9%
Malaysia------- : '15-q2 : 180.24 : 131.06 : 137.5%
Philippines---- : '15-q2 : 217.30 : 159.84 : 135.9%
Thailand------- : '15-q2 : 105.43 : 134.50 : 78.39%
Indonesia------ : '15-q2 : 138.51 : 164.89 : 84.00%

 

Hong Kong:

Hong%2BKong%2BHouse%2BPrice%2BIndex%2Bvs

 

Singapore

Singapore%2BHouse%2BPrice%2BIndex%2Bvs%2

 

Malaysia

Malaysia%2BHouse%2BPrice%2BIndex%2Bvs%2B

Philippines

Philippines%2BHouse%2BPrice%2BIndex%2Bvs

 

"Hong Kong real estate prices have leaped by 234.46% in a little over 10 years to reach a staggering 345.03 as of the second quarter of 2015 from a base of 100 since year-end 2004. General inflation levels have just climbed 37.87% during this same period.  In other words, Hong Kong home prices have outpaced inflation by an astounding 207.16% during this period, the highest rate of appreciation in the countries covered in this post."

==

> source: http://systemisbroke...iland-post.html - and : http://www.globalpro...yguide.com/Asia

> search: criteria


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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