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The Philadelphia Story - the Case for Property investing


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#21 DrBubb

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Posted 03 May 2015 - 03:16 AM

The magic of the new Comcast Tower  (think HSBC in Hong Kong / same architect)

 

++ A Four Seasons Hotel on top

Comcast to Expand Philadelphia Presence With Comcast Innovation and Technology Center

 

Published on Jan 15, 2014

Designed by Lord Norman Foster and developed by Liberty Property Trust to achieve LEED Platinum Certification, the 59-story tower will include a Four Seasons Hotel. Thousands of jobs and billions of dollars of economic activity will be created in Philadelphia and the Pennsylvania commonwealth.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#22 DrBubb

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Posted 03 May 2015 - 04:06 AM

The secret of restoring prosperity in Philadelphia : Get rid of the need for cars,
and build a high quality of Life that does not require driving, as in NY City

Here's what Andreas Duany said:
"A car is a necessity in most of America... otherwise you have no career or social life...  The estimate cost of a car is $9,000 a year... We have been designing a country, where we must have a car, and so we cannot afford housing.  For each car you do not buy, you can afford another $100,000 of housing."

He said this in this video with his vision of the Future:

FUTURE MAN - Andrés Duany Gives the Lecture of a Lifetime



He drove in from the airport, and saw many suburban areas that are sliding... becoming future slums.
(Suck it up, you die-hard suburbanites.  Maybe you should rethink your future, befire it catchs up with you.)


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#23 DrBubb

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 09:14 AM

ANSWERING the debunkers...

 

In articles, like This one: OVGinvest.com Promotion

 

"With rock-bottom prices and sky-high returns USA property
looks like an investor's dream...

But is it just too good to be true ?"

 

Thanks to the recession there are some outstanding opportunities to buy property in the USA for a fraction of what it is worth.
In fact, house prices in some areas are at their lowest since 1993.
That's up to 70% below their peak.
This means, for a low entry price you can earn rental returns of around 20% net, after all costs and fees.
You can even find completely renovated, fully managed properties which are already tenanted.
So you get paid from day one.
What's more, experts predict that capital growth will be very strong over the next few years.
But is it really that simple?
The short answer is, no.
====================

 

Sure - the Article has many good points / Like THESE:

 

The reasons (to be cautious) are many but include:
  • Cities where the population is declining
  • Regions which have little or no investment
  • Areas where hundreds of rental properties are sitting empty
  • Properties in neighborhoods where nobody wants to live
  • Houses that will cost you a fortune to maintain because they haven't been refurbished properly
  • Management companies who will charge you over the odds and leave you to sort out your own problems
  • ===
The Philadelphia Story answers these concerns, this way:
 
+ Philly's population has been growing at about 1% per annum, since 2000
+ Vacancies are near 5%, and decent places rent quickly
+ Jobs are growing with four new skyscrapers under construction
+ The management guarantee is "net" of all costs, and the company has meaningful equity
(from what we are told, and expect to have confirmed)

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#24 DrBubb

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Posted 23 June 2015 - 10:35 PM

ThinkFest 2014: Comcast Building for Innovation


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#25 callmejoe

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Posted 29 September 2015 - 07:36 PM

http://www.stevequay...php?s=33&d=1569

 

Do your other loyal readers a favor and tell them to stay out of center city Philly.

 

Hey Steve, just dropped a line to Dave Hodges as well. Center city Philly
is a complete police state as of 11:30pm on 9/24/15. Just got back from
dropping off a cot and food for my wife who is an RN mandated to stay
during the weekend in a major center city hospital.

The place is nuts. There are security personnel wearing protective vests
emblazoned with "secret service" and "DHS" every where you look. From 10th
street to the parkway, it's nothing but sheeple pens and police. Not over
reacting. I've never seen this level of lockdown. Do your other loyal
readers a favor and tell them to stay out of center city Philly. Caravans
of tow trucks and police cars rolling through the streets and many streets
just simply shut down. Every briefing I had said this was not supposed to
happen until between 3pm and 10pm on Friday. The cathedral is also
decorated with thousands of little white ribbons that remind you of the
pagan Tibetan prayer flags. Very bizarre

Sep 25, 2015



#26 DrBubb

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Posted 30 September 2015 - 05:00 AM

" a complete police state as of 11:30pm on 9/24/15"

 

Past that moment now, thank goodness.

And the Pope is safely on the way back to Roma


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#27 DrBubb

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Posted 11 March 2016 - 01:14 PM

DISCUSSING the "JUBILEE STRUCTURE" - as explained in the following video

 

Interview with Jimmy Ngai of Jubilee Capital

 

(from another forum):

 

I posted the original version of the interview there -

(that's before I edited it when I heard Robert's Comments; see edited version below)

 

D-- is a frequent poster on another forum, and I thought you might want to read the back and forth between him and O--.

This goes into a reason why the yields are still so high - (ie prices so low) - in Philly.

 

Another reason might be that a portion of the cash flow return is actually a return OF capital, since the property may require another rehab in X years.  That seems invisible now, because prices are rising.

 

What can one determine what the "X" (# of years) might be?

 

D---:

I don't know. How can guarantee a 3-year, 11% pre-tax yield? It doesn't make much sense. Why would anybody rent, if they can pay 1/3 of their house in 3 years, by buying with a mortgage. It means in 9 years you bought your house. That's too good to be true.
In addition, this company can't even make a website without spelling and grammar mistakes.
I don't buy it (in all senses).
And what is it post-tax? I believe in many places in the US taxes are quite high.

 

O--:

I own a property there.

It was originally build in 1925, and rehabbed last year after I bought it in July 2015..

I paid about $75,000 - and it was rented recently at $1,050 per month.

That's $1,050 x 12 = $12,600 / $75,000 = 16.8% Gross Rent.

The tenants are a professional couple working in the Center City (based on their jobs). From the house they can walk 2 minutes and get on a trolley that will take them to the CC in about 20 minutes. So they must be happy to get a spacious house (1,360 sf) that is considerably cheaper than a smaller Condo in the CC.

Why don't they buy the property, or one like it ?
(Someday they will, or someone like them - But it takes time for people to build capital, and learn the merits of being a homeowner)
Confidence in property was ruined by the slump of many decades going back to the 1950-1960's, when the population of Philly began to decline. It was only about 2000 that the population started to rise again. People are buying again. And buying started years ago in the areas that are walking distance from the CC. Prices have risen there, and the gentrification is spreading out from the core areas towards where I bought, (see the summary of the magazine article above) The question and the risk is this - will the wave of gentrification continue, and how long will it take for that core of buyers to march towards my property and pay a much higher price.

When I visited Philly last summer, I could see some signs that the gentrification could spread and was spreading to the street where I bought. Thus, I was not too surprised when I was Zillow make the following changes in its estimates - numbers are approximate:

============: -July'15 : Mar'16 :
Value Estimate : $75.0K : $ 94.0K : + 25%
Rent Estimate- : $0,950 : $ 1,100 : + 16%
Yield Estimate- : 16.00% : 14.04%

(BTW, I think I was very lucky to get such a big jump in valuations in such a short time.

I put this down to luck and my own careful research over many weeks in trying to find a property that was in the pathway of gentrification. When in Philly last summer, I visited the place three times, and walked from the central city along the trolley route so I could see how the neighborhood was changing. Remember when you were asking me where I was going to reploy my cash from selling my property in HK? I was not too concerned, because this was part of the answer, another part was the Philippines, and another part was gold... etc. Since September, HK property prices have fallen 10-15%, while the capital values rose, and I am getting a good cash flow.)

You may ask: How realistic are those estimates?
Here are two solid bits of evidence:
+ An independent inspection report received two weeks ago, which confirmed the rehab was done in a satisfactory fashion, and the house was ready for move in
+ A good quality tenant signed a lease at $1,050 - versus the $900-950 that was expected

I saw a property from the same source two months ago that I wanted to buy. In the end I did not buy it, because I had not yet had confirmation that the rehab was acceptable and the property was rented.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#28 DrBubb

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 10:05 AM

Philly and US Property Prices thread :

> http://www.greenener...showtopic=20764

 

(back-up copy of the Initial post):

 

US House Price Data : Philadelphia, NYC & Other Cities

 

Philadelphia price breakout Underway ? : ( "coming?: we asked 2-3 months ago)

 

PhillyRE-Zillow-Jun16_zpst7ehuvpr.png

=============================================

The Yields for Philly are higher: 11.2% vs. 4.7% for NYC - see post #16, below

Northeast Corridor Home Prices
City ---------- : Value (1) : Rent(1): Yield(1): Value (2) : Rent(2): Yield(2): Vl.+chg. : Rt.+chg.
==========: Dec. 2012 : --------------------- : June 2016 : -------------------- :
Boston ------- : $365,000 : $2,309 : : 7.59% : $493,000 : $2,580 : : 6.28% : + 24.9 % : + 11.7 %
NewYork City : $469,000 : $1,881 : : 4.81% : $605,000 : $2,350 : : 4.66% : + 29.0 % : + 24.9 %
Philadelphia: $104,000 : $1,081 : 12.47% : $130,000 : $1,212 : 11.19 % : + 25.0 % : + 12.1 %
Washington - : $385,000 : $2,403 : : 7.49% : $516,300 : $2,595 : : 6.03% : + 34.1 % : + 7.99 %
============================================

 

 

Philly prices can go a long, long way before they will be Half of NYC house prices (over $600k)

PhillyvsNYC-Zillow_zpsz6qsvmfh.png

NYC prices above are from Zillow.

Latest, Mar.2016: $616,100  vs. $122,100 for Philly ($616.1/ $122.1 = 5.05x)

 

 

.... NYC-indices2_zpsyo1tdgba.png

(Note: The main Case-Shiller index for NYC excludes Condos, which have risen faster

 

.

national-realty-investment-advisors-llc-

Philadelphia Property prices, 1980-2014

 

Inflation-adj, back to 1890:
360px-Case-Shiller_data_from_1890_to_201

> source : http://www.multpl.co...-adjusted/table

========

> C-S wiki: https://en.wikipedia...

> 20Cities: https://research.stl...eries/SPCS20RSA : (monthly data back to 2000)

DataGrid : http://data.okfn.org...house-prices-us

Fels Chrt : http://www.biaofphil...phpi_2013q2.pdf

> RShiller:

========

 

mo Ph-Zhv : YoYr : Nyc_Zhc : YoYr : 20cityI : YoYr : condo: C-NYC : C-Nyc2: C-Wash C-Bost.
'15 116,000:             : 563,000 :          : 175.38 : 4.40% : 244.50: 176.57 : 174.76 : 205.24 : 175.73
F : 117,000:              : 566,000 :          : 177.09 : 4.84% : 245.82: 177.57 : 174.82 : 205.70 : 175.35
M : 116,800:             : 569,400 :           : 178.91 : 4.87% : 247.12: 178.39 : 174.37 : 206.88 : 176.12
A : 116,000:             : 572,000 :           : 179.43 : 4.86% : 249.01: 179.00 : 175.68 : 209.63 : 176.52
M : 116,000:             : 577,000 :           : 178.53 : 4.81% : 250.41: 178.82 : 177.27 : 210.98 : 179.26
J. : 117,000:             : 582,000 :           : 178.48 : 4.82% : 253.08: 178.36 : 179.52 : 212.51 : 181.87
jl. : 117,000:             : 587,000 :           : 178.48 : 4.95% : 253.87: 177.92 : 180.81 : 213.01 : 183.85
A : 118,000:             : 591,000 :           : 178.77 : 5.06% : 254.86: 177.80 : 181.66 : 212.88 : 184.56
S : 119,000:             : 596,000 :           : 179.61 : 5.28% : 255.56: 177.98 : 181.66 : 211.88 : 184.42
O : 119,000:             : 601,000 :           : 180.87 : 5.38% : 255.78: 178.70 : 181.40 : 210.77 : 184.14
N : 120,000:             : 604,000 :           : 182.49 : 5.28% : 256.45: 180.02 : 180.96 : 210.52 : 183.24
D : 121,000:             : 607,000 :           : 183.81 : 5.38% : 257.71: 180.71 : 180.48 : 210.27 : 182.82

'16 121,000: 4.31% : 610,000 : 8.35% : 185.33 : 5.67% : 260.53: 181.20 : 179.38 : 209.07 : 182.06
F. : 121,000: 3.42% : 613,000 : 8.30% : 185.56 : 5.36% : 263.21: 181.29 : 178.53 : 208.65 : 181.92
M : 122,100: 4.54% : 616,100 : 8.20% :  

mo Ph-Zhv : YoYr : Nyc_Zhc : YoYr : 20cityI : YoYr : condo: C-NYC : C-Nyc2: C-Wash C-Bost.

===

Zillow: Philly : NYC-Z : 20-city : 20C-Nsa : NY-rsa : condo / (NSA): NYC : Wash : Bost :


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#29 DrBubb

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 10:08 AM

Philly and US Property Prices thread :

> http://www.greenener...showtopic=20764

 

(back-up copy of the Initial post):

 

US House Price Data : Philadelphia, NYC & Other Cities

 

Philadelphia price breakout Underway ? : ( "coming?: we asked 2-3 months ago)

 

PhillyRE-Zillow-Jun16_zpst7ehuvpr.png

=============================================

The Yields for Philly are higher: 12.5% vs. 4.8% for NYC - see post #16, below
Northeast Corridor Home Prices
City ---------- : Value (1)- : Rent(1): Yield (1) : Value (2)- : Rent(2): Yield (2): Vl.+chg. : Rt.+chg.
==========: Dec. 2012 : --------------------- : June 2016 : -------------------- :
Boston ------- : $365,000 : $2,309 : : 7.59% : $493,000 : $2,580 : : 6.28% : + 24.9 % : + 11.7 %
NewYork City : $469,000 : $1,881 : : 4.81% : $605,000 : $2,350 : : 4.66% : + 29.0 % : + 24.9 %
Philadelphia: $104,000 : $1,081 : 12.47% : $130,000 : $1,212 : 11.19 % : + 25.0 % : + 12.1 %
Washington - : $385,000 : $2,403 : : 7.49% : $516,300 : $2,595 : : 6.03% : + 34.1 % : + 7.99 %
============================================

 

 

Philly prices can go a long, long way before they will be Half of NYC house prices (over $600k)

PhillyvsNYC-Zillow_zpsz6qsvmfh.png

NYC prices above are from Zillow.

Latest, Mar.2016: $616,100  vs. $122,100 for Philly ($616.1/ $122.1 = 5.05x)

 

 

.... NYC-indices2_zpsyo1tdgba.png

(Note: The main Case-Shiller index for NYC excludes Condos, which have risen faster

 

.

national-realty-investment-advisors-llc-

Philadelphia Property prices, 1980-2014

 

Inflation-adj, back to 1890:
360px-Case-Shiller_data_from_1890_to_201

> source : http://www.multpl.co...-adjusted/table

========

> C-S wiki: https://en.wikipedia...

> 20Cities: https://research.stl...eries/SPCS20RSA : (monthly data back to 2000)

DataGrid : http://data.okfn.org...house-prices-us

Fels Chrt : http://www.biaofphil...phpi_2013q2.pdf

> RShiller:

========

 

mo Ph-Zhv : YoYr : Nyc_Zhc : YoYr : 20cityI : YoYr : condo: C-NYC : C-Nyc2: C-Wash C-Bost.
'15 116,000:             : 563,000 :          : 175.38 : 4.40% : 244.50: 176.57 : 174.76 : 205.24 : 175.73
F : 117,000:              : 566,000 :          : 177.09 : 4.84% : 245.82: 177.57 : 174.82 : 205.70 : 175.35
M : 116,800:             : 569,400 :           : 178.91 : 4.87% : 247.12: 178.39 : 174.37 : 206.88 : 176.12
A : 116,000:             : 572,000 :           : 179.43 : 4.86% : 249.01: 179.00 : 175.68 : 209.63 : 176.52
M : 116,000:             : 577,000 :           : 178.53 : 4.81% : 250.41: 178.82 : 177.27 : 210.98 : 179.26
J. : 117,000:             : 582,000 :           : 178.48 : 4.82% : 253.08: 178.36 : 179.52 : 212.51 : 181.87
jl. : 117,000:             : 587,000 :           : 178.48 : 4.95% : 253.87: 177.92 : 180.81 : 213.01 : 183.85
A : 118,000:             : 591,000 :           : 178.77 : 5.06% : 254.86: 177.80 : 181.66 : 212.88 : 184.56
S : 119,000:             : 596,000 :           : 179.61 : 5.28% : 255.56: 177.98 : 181.66 : 211.88 : 184.42
O : 119,000:             : 601,000 :           : 180.87 : 5.38% : 255.78: 178.70 : 181.40 : 210.77 : 184.14
N : 120,000:             : 604,000 :           : 182.49 : 5.28% : 256.45: 180.02 : 180.96 : 210.52 : 183.24
D : 121,000:             : 607,000 :           : 183.81 : 5.38% : 257.71: 180.71 : 180.48 : 210.27 : 182.82

'16 121,000: 4.31% : 610,000 : 8.35% : 185.33 : 5.67% : 260.53: 181.20 : 179.38 : 209.07 : 182.06
F. : 121,000: 3.42% : 613,000 : 8.30% : 185.56 : 5.36% : 263.21: 181.29 : 178.53 : 208.65 : 181.92
M : 122,100: 4.54% : 616,100 : 8.20% :  

mo Ph-Zhv : YoYr : Nyc_Zhc : YoYr : 20cityI : YoYr : condo: C-NYC : C-Nyc2: C-Wash C-Bost.

===

Zillow: Philly : NYC-Z : 20-city : 20C-Nsa : NY-rsa : condo / (NSA): NYC : Wash : Bost :


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#30 DrBubb

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Posted 06 March 2017 - 02:27 PM

PHILLY as a Showcase?

 

160711-trumpwharton-editorial.jpg

 

Here are some thoughts that connected like Dots for me

 

+ President Trump went to school at Wharton (Univ. of Pennsylvania),  in University West,

and he must be very familiar with the city

 

+ He travels over Philly every time he flies from Wash.DC to NYC (Trump Tower), and he must be aware

of the transport advantage of having an express train operating between the cities he knows so well

 

+ Trump has spoken of improving the life of Urban dwellers, and bring more jobs back to American cities

 

+ PA state voted for Trump, but the City of Philly did not

 

I think we could see a situation develop where Trump could make Philly a showcase of what his policies and creative efforts can do for a city

 

Let's see if this idea emerges in the Months to come.  The new focus on allowing higher buildings near transit stations, seems like a good start, and using private money to develop around transit is another positive step that we are seeing

 

(Later, I found this report from the time of the election):

 

Donald Trump’s Closing Argument: Reactivate The Philadelphia Navy Yard!

November 8th, 2016 by Tina Casey

 

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump made his closing pitch in a series of campaign stops last night, one of which was the city of Scranton, Pennsylvania. If you were listening closely (disclosure: I was), one new line stood out like a beacon of new light among the now-familiar roll call of complaints about his Democratic opponent, the media, and war refugees. If you guessed that line was “reactivate the Philadelphia Navy Yard!” run right out, buy yourself a cigar, and smoke it down to ash while trying to figure out what he really meant.

==

> https://cleantechnic...phia-navy-yard/


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#31 DrBubb

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Posted 22 April 2017 - 09:14 AM

Philly's Demographic advantage - fast-growing Millennial population : +42% ! since 2005

.

march-investor-update-24-638.jpg?cb=1488

> source: slide#24 : https://investors.pr...ew/default.aspx

 

I reckon the large number of Universities in Philadelphia has helped to create this trend


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix



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