Jump to content


Photo

German Election Thread:Will Merkel make it 4?


9 replies to this topic

#1 rigger

rigger

    Tri-Centurion

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 781 posts

Posted 16 February 2017 - 10:55 AM

https://www.theguard...tidote-to-trump

'If things go Johanna Uekermann’s way, she will wake up on 25 September to the news that Martin Schulz has soundly beaten Angela Merkel in the German elections.

“The era of Europe-wide austerity policies à la Merkel and [Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister] could finally become a thing of the past,” said the 29-year-old leader of the JuSos, the Social Democratic party’s (SPD) youth organisation.

 

For the second week running, a poll published on Wednesday by Germany’s Forsa institute put the SPD on a five-year high with 31% of the vote, just three percentage points behind Merkel’s Christian Democrats. Another survey, also by Forsa, found that in a theoretical direct vote for the chancellorship, Schulz would win 37% of the vote to Merkel’s 38%.

Another poll published last week saw Schulz’s party overtake the conservatives to become the strongest political force in the country.

 

The emergence of a US president openly critical of German economic and social policies has led some to call for a more combative stance towards Donald Trump’s government than the course of critical distance pursued by Merkel. In an interview in the new edition of Der Spiegel, Schulz described Trump as a “profound” threat to democratic values who was “gambling with the security of the western world”.

Asked how he would deal with Trump as Germany’s chancellor, Schulz responded by praising Germany’s liberal constitution. “As the leader of such a country I have to pursue a combative approach to all those that question this free, open and tolerant model of a society,” he said.

 

But many, even on the German left, view their current high with suspicion. If there was a broad leftwing majority at the 2013 German elections, when the SPD, Greens and Left party collectively gained 42.7% of the vote, that majority has crumbled just as the centre-left and far-left parties have taken first steps to overcome their historic animosity.'

 

 

 

http://www.foxnews.c...ela-merkel.html

'Russia's newest target is German Chancellor Angela Merkel

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a major defender of Western democratic values in Europe, has become the target of a Russian campaign to derail her bid for re-election this year.

Merkel is up for re-election in September for her fourth term. Russian media is mounting a fierce campaign to defeat Merkel because it apparently sees her as a threat.

“The main aim of the Russians is to get rid of Angela Merkel, who is making the last stand in Europe to maintain the sanctions against Russia for its seizure of Crimea, and because of its war in Ukraine,” said Richard Herzinger, an opinion writer for the German conservative newspaper, Die Welt.

Germany's spy agencies, however, have not found any proof that Russia is meddling with the German presidential election.'

 

 

 

 

Besieged from left and right,she's still favourite.

 



#2 rigger

rigger

    Tri-Centurion

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 781 posts

Posted 17 February 2017 - 10:12 PM

http://www.breitbart...ace-chancellor/

'

In a straight race between the two most popular candidates to fill Germany’s top political office, long-time member of the European Parliament and enthusiastic EU acolyte Martin Schulz would beat incumbent Angela Merkel, according to a new poll.

A Schulz victory could upset the balance of power in Europe, and rock Germany which has been ruled by the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) for 12 years.

While the latest figures from German pollsters indicate the ruling CDU remain fractionally ahead, enjoying a significantly reduced majority which has dropped as much as ten points in a year, in a presidential style rather than federal election the left-wing Schulz would win. Welt reports some 49 per cent of Germans opted for Schulz, whereas just 38 per cent wanted Merkel to stay on, a six-point fall in just two weeks.

The latest figures follow an earlier direct-choice survey which found Merkel falling behind on 34 per cent, while EU veteran Schulz enjoyed 50 per cent support. Breitbart London reported on Monday on a poll that found deep-set dissatisfaction with the chancellor who is widely seen as one of the key architects of Europe’s migrant crisis. The research found that some 64 per cent said they wanted a new chancellor, without specifying exactly who.

While Mrs. Merkel trails behind, her party remains fractionally more popular. Barring a shock result, the CDU is likely to come out of the election as the largest party. Despite that advantage, her group of MPs will be far short of the number required to govern outright, leaving her to either reform the coalition with Schulz’s socialist party or even face being relegated to opposition against a left-wing coalition.

 

A Schulz-led German government could have major ramifications, not only for Germany — already one of the most pro-open borders nations in Europe — but also for Britain. As the United Kingdom negotiates to leave the European Union, a shift in the Eurozone’s largest economy to a more bullishly Federalist and pro-Brussels government could complicate matters.'



#3 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 88,460 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 19 February 2017 - 09:19 AM

Merkel falling behind on 34 per cent, while EU veteran Schulz enjoyed 50 per cent support.

 

16 points?

That's a big lead.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 stunlee

stunlee

    Tri-Centurion

  • Members2
  • PipPipPip
  • 495 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 19 February 2017 - 10:34 PM

Sad to say, but I am pretty certain it will be Merkel, the "Literally Hitler" tag is just too strong, and the Germans are so terrified of their past that the AfD cannot break through. Look at the opinion polls on Wiki.

 

https://en.wikipedia..._election,_2017

After 4 or 5 years of the Euro crisis, AfD were at about 3 percent popularity. This increased during the until now worst days of the """refugee crisis""" in Autumn 2015 to around 13 percent, but support has not been increasing since then. There was a slight increase after the Berlin truck mass murder but that has been descreasing since then.

 

The German wiki gives the individual poll results:

https://de.wikipedia..._Ostdeutschland

 

Schulz would be an even worse option in my opinion, an arch Europhile. 

 

The best realistic possibility that could happen would be for Merkel to win, AfD to get about 10 to 12 percent, and then the FDP around 8 percent. Together with the CSU, the fairly centrist FDP and the AfD might be able to put a bit of pressur eon Merkel.

 

Keep in mind also the local elections. 

https://bundestagswa...landtagswahlen/

 

Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein are fairly small and unimportant but Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) on 14th May is the most populous state in Germany and also the state probably the worst affected. It is being called a "failed state" in the German media (see the example from the CIA mouthpiece Der Spiegel)

http://www.spiegel.d...-a-1129138.html



#5 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 88,460 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 19 February 2017 - 11:33 PM

the "Literally Hitler" tag is just too strong...

 

Here's a possible response to this tag:

 

Everyone is Hitler, Everyone Is A Russian Agent


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 rigger

rigger

    Tri-Centurion

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 781 posts

Posted 31 March 2017 - 08:32 PM

This would be an absolute disaster, Frauke Petry is considering resigning.

 

http://www.dw.com/en...tion/a-38215341

 

This is reportedly due to poor poll results. I would be willing to bet that German polling companies are using exactly the same techniques to fake results that the US companies were using last year.

Frauke Petry is the only charismatic leader that the AfD have. Bernd Lucke is excellent and actually understands economics but he was removed a couple of years ago, Gauland is too old and Beatrix von Storch is frankly just a bit weird looking to be a successful leader.

 

At this critical time for Germany and Europe, the only sensible alternative seems to be destroying itself.

Be an absolute shame if she did.I know very little about the lady.

 

As you say,I wouldn't trust those polls and having seen the way the MSM have reacted to Brexit and Trump with histrionics and 'fake' fear,you can see why they might be afraid of her.



#7 rigger

rigger

    Tri-Centurion

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 781 posts

Posted 08 April 2017 - 09:37 PM

https://en.wikipedia..._election,_2017

 

SPD 3% behind Merkel.............................................35% to 32%



#8 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 88,460 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 08 April 2017 - 10:32 PM

WTF!

 

800px-OpinionPollingGermanyFederalElecti


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 stunlee

stunlee

    Tri-Centurion

  • Members2
  • PipPipPip
  • 495 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 07 May 2017 - 08:20 PM

Merkel already has the national election won, look at these results in Schleswig-Holstein.

 

Die CDU ist Wahlsieger in Schleswig-Holstein. Die Partei um Spitzenkandidat Daniel Günther hat am Sonntag nach den Prognosen von ARD und ZDF zwischen 33 und 34 Prozent der Stimmen gewonnen. Die bisherigen Koalitionspartner SPD, Grüne und Südschleswigscher Wählerverband SSW verbuchen bei der Landtagswahl schwere Verluste und können ihre Koalition wohl nicht fortsetzen. Die SPD von Ministerpräsident Torsten Albig erreicht zwischen 26 und 27 Prozent, die Grünen kommen auf 12,5 bis 13,5 Prozent, und der SSW fällt auf 3 bis 3,5 Prozent zurück. Die AfD erreicht 5,5 Prozent und dürfte damit erstmals in den Kieler Landtag einziehen. Piraten und Linke scheitern an der Fünf-Prozent-Hürde.

 

CDU 33-34

SPD 26-27

Green 12.5-13.5

AfD 5.5

 

https://deutsche-wir...regierende-spd/

 

CDU are stronger than they were 5 years ago, back in the good times.

https://de.wikipedia...g-Holstein_2017

 

NRW, the "failed state" votes next Sunday.



#10 rigger

rigger

    Tri-Centurion

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 781 posts

Posted 08 May 2017 - 11:35 PM

Merkel already has the national election won, look at these results in Schleswig-Holstein.

 

Die CDU ist Wahlsieger in Schleswig-Holstein. Die Partei um Spitzenkandidat Daniel Günther hat am Sonntag nach den Prognosen von ARD und ZDF zwischen 33 und 34 Prozent der Stimmen gewonnen. Die bisherigen Koalitionspartner SPD, Grüne und Südschleswigscher Wählerverband SSW verbuchen bei der Landtagswahl schwere Verluste und können ihre Koalition wohl nicht fortsetzen. Die SPD von Ministerpräsident Torsten Albig erreicht zwischen 26 und 27 Prozent, die Grünen kommen auf 12,5 bis 13,5 Prozent, und der SSW fällt auf 3 bis 3,5 Prozent zurück. Die AfD erreicht 5,5 Prozent und dürfte damit erstmals in den Kieler Landtag einziehen. Piraten und Linke scheitern an der Fünf-Prozent-Hürde.

 

CDU 33-34

SPD 26-27

Green 12.5-13.5

AfD 5.5

 

https://deutsche-wir...regierende-spd/

 

CDU are stronger than they were 5 years ago, back in the good times.

https://de.wikipedia...g-Holstein_2017

 

NRW, the "failed state" votes next Sunday.

Much as I can't stand her.I would put my money on her at the moment.






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users