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FACEBOOK at $38, FB = $104 Billion. Is it overvalued?


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 01:50 PM

Facebook - at $50 Billion, is it overvalued?
(2012 Note: since this estimate first came out, they have sold and issued plenty of new stock)
============================================

A $50 Billion Valuation? Are they kidding??
Even Yelnick fell for it...

The Baton is Passed from CleanTech to the Social Mobile Web

Interesting meme racing around the tech blogosphere on this cybermonday: that one of the most respected venture firms, Kleiner Perkins, is switching gears from cleantech to the new social mobile web or whatever it should be called. John still expects some billion-dollar cleantech IPOs next year, but he has been talking up the new sFund and it has sparked speculation about where he sees the next big thing.

CleanTech had a bit of a bubble, and is off the peak, both in values of many deals and in pace of investing. Certainly some deals have done well, in particular Tesla, which in recent days has traded up above the levels of the initial pop after IPO. (Note: I have a small indirect interest in Tesla.) Yet there has not been a green IPO that spawned a rush to the category. It has not had its Netscape Moment. As GreenBeat summarizes:

Basically, cleantech needs a Facebook

The social mobile web has its Facebook, and its Twitter, Zynga, LinkedIn, Groupon, etc. While many are awaiting for a series of social mobile web IPOs in the next two years, the market has already treated Facebook private shares like IPO candy. <b>SecondMarket reports that Facebook shares are now trading at $50B market value</b>. This makes it worth more than Yahoo or eBay, closing in on Amazon ($80B), and within 1/4th of Microsoft and Google.

John may be a bit wistful, having so strongly promoted the sFund he has cast a shadow on his cleantech investing. We can see where this is going with a recent funding round of his firm and Accel partners (who just made a killing selling Facebook shares) into an energy efficiency deal, OPower, a deal that crosses over between the Internet and cleantech.

Where John leads, we should not be afraid to follow. The SuperAngel phenom has now crossed over itself into mainstream venture capital. The game is on! The next tech boom is emerging,

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/#tp
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 02:03 PM

Yelnick's great at spotting Bubbles in financial markets, by how does he miss this one in Tech

(1)
As the the long wave, we are so clearly in a K-Winter that it makes me smile at those who denounce the use of such analysis. The long wave folks expected and predicted this disaster; almost everyone else where shocked, shocked! there was gambling going on by the banksters.

Check out Steve Keen's website, debtwatch. He has a really compelling analysis which I have previously discussed that looks at change in debt as the core driver. He starts with this:
- aggregate demand (AD) drives GDP
- AD = consumption + Investment + change in debt
- change in GDP is highly correlated to the change in change in debt

Why change in change in debt? During the bubble, debt increases of course. The second derivative, the change in change in debt, always goes up during a credit bubble, which means investors are piling on at an accelerated pace. It shows a bubble - the signature is acceleration of debt. When it peaks and the bubble bursts, the change in change in debt - call it delta delta debt - plummets. His data shows the rise of delta delta debt prior to 1928/2007 and the drop after are close matches, as is the impact on GDP.

This fits the Long Wave:
- during K-Fall, debt increases, and at the end, it increases at an accelerated rate
- during K-Winter, debt collapses, and at some point at an accelerated rate

This time around the collapse of debt was consistent with 1928-1930, and then we slowed the process with the Stimulus. Delta delta debt is still negative, but the rate of drop has turned up, meaning slower. Yet the debt remains.
So under the Long Wave, it will still need to collapse. All we have done is kicked the can down the road.

BTW another signature of the bubble is how the use of debt changes from business investment to speculation. This shows up in the percent of GDP that goes to banksters vs goes to wages. Wages drop as bankster profit rises. This is vivid in the US stats from 2003-2007. Sad,a ctually. As the bubble is used for speculation, wages get compressed. Steve Keen has a model where he plays out the endgame. Wages go south as bankster profits go north. The speculative fever wipes out the middle class.

Posted by: Yelnick | Saturday, November 27, 2010 at 03:29 PM


(2)
Mish has a point about choosing to bailout German banks over bailing out Irish citizens, although it is not clear the Irish could live with it. I sit in Cali-forn-nia and if they stiff the bond market they are dead ducks. Cannot finance any of those exorbitant union contracts ... If the Irish drop the Euro and go back to whatever their currency used to be, their borrowing costs skyrocket beyond that 6.7% coupon. The problem was created when the Irish lived beyond their means & the govt foolishly backed all the private loans to bailout borrowers. Iceland did NOT do that and are better off; also had kept their own currency. My advice to the govt would have been to get a reduction in the debt owed in exchange for some sort of deal. I am sure they tried ...

Fascinating issue of how to restructure the global financial system. The problem with fiat currencies is now obvious: the debt keeps piling on until it cannot be serviced. How to reduce the debt? There is nothing to exchange it for, so the can gets kicked down the road and the problem simmers and gets worse.

1) Under gold, you could at least liquidate debts via a gold exchange. Consider the impact if the Treasury (not the Fed) issued gold-back bonds priced at $8k per oz in exchange for (say) 5x the debt against the current Dollar value. Potentially the whole pile of $50T Dollar debt could be exchanged for $10T of nee Dollar debt, some of which is gold-backed.

2) Keynes had this idea of a Bancor, a synthetic currency as a reserve that was not any individual country. Say we use SDR's for that purpose. ireland floats bonds under its own currency priced in SDRs, and partially backed by SDRs. If the PIIGS persist in bad policies, their currencies drop vs the SDR, as they should, while Germany's goes up. This might work of the SDR is sufficiently backed.

The Bancor could avoid the avoid the Triffin Dilemma, of the reserve currency country exporting its policies. In Europe, it means the austerity of Germany gets exported to all the PIIGS. Worldwide, it means the prolificacy of the US get exported, causing inflation, as is now occurring under QE2.

Posted by: Yelnick | Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 07:47 PM



(3)
Dollar Index has clearly bottomed, and it seems to be a major bottom as we saw in 1978, 1995 or just a couple of years ago. Each time the Dollar rose not because of US strength but other-currency weakness. Dollar just fell slower! Core drivers this time around are Euro, China & QE2:

- Euroland is obviously in a world of hurt, and the Euro could drop a lot more

- China is tightening and suffering a horrific internal inflation, raising a real risk of a huge bubble bursting much like Japan 1989. The yuan would drop against the Dollar, pushing it up, but a bigger impact would be the peak in emerging-market speculation. Where does the hot money go then?



- QE2 is more complex. It should weaken the Dollar but it is under political backlash and is less aggressive than it could have been. I think the backlash is also intellectual - the initial rush to judgment that it would trash the Dollar turned out to be overblown as market participants figured out what the Fed was actually doing - flattening the middle of the yield curve. If the US economy continues to skip along a bottom, the flat middle won't do much to change business lending, and hence won't be that inflationary. Instead it continues to push liquidity into speculation.

Posted by: Yelnick | Monday, November 29, 2010 at 09:08 AM
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 02:15 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Nov 30 2010, 10:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
BTW another signature of the bubble is how the use of debt changes from business investment to speculation. This shows up in the percent of GDP that goes to banksters vs goes to wages. Wages drop as bankster profit rises. This is vivid in the US stats from 2003-2007. Sad,a ctually. As the bubble is used for speculation, wages get compressed. Steve Keen has a model where he plays out the endgame. Wages go south as bankster profits go north. The speculative fever wipes out the middle class.

Posted by: Yelnick


Facebook at $50 billion is an icon of the latest speculative fever in social networking, I reckon

Wouldn't it be better if VC money was going into fixing real problems (like an addiction to foreign oil) rather than creating amusing ways to waste society's time?
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 02:29 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Nov 30 2010, 10:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
2) Keynes had this idea of a Bancor, a synthetic currency as a reserve that was not any individual country. Say we use SDR's for that purpose. ireland floats bonds under its own currency priced in SDRs, and partially backed by SDRs. If the PIIGS persist in bad policies, their currencies drop vs the SDR, as they should, while Germany's goes up. This might work of the SDR is sufficiently backed.

The Bancor could avoid the avoid the Triffin Dilemma, of the reserve currency country exporting its policies. In Europe, it means the austerity of Germany gets exported to all the PIIGS. Worldwide, it means the prolificacy of the US get exported, causing inflation, as is now occurring under QE2.

This government is buying time, not for itself but for the country. Even Brian Cowen, the bumptious prime minister, knows that the almost-certain loss of Thursday's by-election in County Donegal is merely a prelude to his government being booted out of office next year.

This budget is a phantasm, designed to appease EU officials in Brussels and the IMF's wonks in Washington. No one, probably least of all the men who drafted it, believes that Ireland can pay back the rescue loans, the national debt and fund the banks. Standard & Poors reckons Ireland's growth forecasts, on which rest its assumptions of deficit reduction, are unrealistic. Most economists believe Ireland will stagnate for the next few years and deflation may continue. Capital Economics, the London-based research house reckons Ireland may need another 15-billion of cuts, a third round, to get its deficit down to 3 per cent by 2014.

Of course, politically and morally, that is not a viable strategy and Ben May, economist at Capital Economics, reckons a future government might decide in due course on an alternative strategy of restructuring borrowings and quitting the euro zone. It won't happen immediately, he reckons because a default could lead to being shut out of the bond markets.

/more: http://www.theglobea...article1812975/
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 shanehicks

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 02:51 PM

I still think Linkedin is worth watching @ IPO - i've just spent $25K with them for the annual subscription and I know a hell of a lot more recruiters doing the same - minimal overheads and a very valuable product IMO

#6 Concrete Jungle

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 04:28 PM

I really don't understand how facebook can be valued at $50 billion? Yes I do use facebook and it will do while it is free to use. I have NEVER clicked on any of the adverts on facebook (I quite resent the targeted adverts that facebook, google and others bombard me with). At the weekend I asked about 50/60 people if they had ever purchased anything advertised on facebook and none had. Only 2 people had ever clicked on one of the targeted adverts on facebook, one of those clicked on it by mistake. Perhaps it isn't facebook that is in a bubble, but the bizzare world of online advertising and the percieved value and importance of it that is in a bubble, catching facebook in the madness?


#7 lupercal

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 06:52 PM

QUOTE (shanehicks @ Nov 30 2010, 03:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I still think Linkedin is worth watching @ IPO - i've just spent $25K with them for the annual subscription and I know a hell of a lot more recruiters doing the same - minimal overheads and a very valuable product IMO


How did you use it. I couldn't work out how to generate worthwhile sales leads from it? Thats from a software company rather than a recruiter though.

QUOTE
The thing is the future isn't something that's rammed down our throats. The future is a choice. The human race is six or seven billion odd people each of which is making choices every day. You add up all those choices and that's the direction of humanity. Each of us has fairly small voices, but you add up a lot of small voices and you get big voices.
James Gosling Coder.

#8 shanehicks

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 08:36 AM

QUOTE (lupercal @ Nov 30 2010, 06:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
How did you use it. I couldn't work out how to generate worthwhile sales leads from it? Thats from a software company rather than a recruiter though.



I look after global recruitment for a US software company so using Linkedin to find talent rather than using search firms makes a great deal of sense, the package mentioned opens up the whole 80 million+ users to me - it's paid for itself after 1 placement - personally I wouldn't want to be a KornFerry or Michael Paige at the moment, the days of paying $100K on a retainer for a mid level exec hire are thankfully gone

#9 Grimbert

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 10:35 PM

QUOTE (shanehicks @ Dec 1 2010, 08:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I look after global recruitment for a US software company so using Linkedin to find talent rather than using search firms makes a great deal of sense, the package mentioned opens up the whole 80 million+ users to me - it's paid for itself after 1 placement - personally I wouldn't want to be a KornFerry or Michael Paige at the moment, the days of paying $100K on a retainer for a mid level exec hire are thankfully gone


That's interesting. I am on Linkedin because our marketing department asked us to, so the company would get more web presence. I haven't bothered much with my profile, cv or anything. But then I'm not actively seeking another job.

How do you seek potential recruits? Is it on-screen adverts that target me because of keywords in my profile or some other clever way? Do you get to contact people directly based on some search criteria?

#10 DrBubb

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 11:08 PM

I set up a facebook page for GEI, but haven't seen any benefit from it.
:: http://www.facebook....100001689102135

I was on Twitter too (as DrBubb) for a while, but it also seemed like a time waster.
:: http://twitter.com/drbubb

Do people really think a Linked-in presence for GEI might be useful?
Or should I leave it to the Jobseekers and Head hunters?
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 Grimbert

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Posted 02 December 2010 - 12:35 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Dec 1 2010, 11:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I set up a facebook page for GEI, but haven't seen any benefit from it.
:: http://www.facebook....100001689102135

I was on Twitter too (as DrBubb) for a while, but it also seemed like a time waster.
:: http://twitter.com/drbubb

Do people really think a Linked-in presence for GEI might be useful?
Or should I leave it to the Jobseekers and Head hunters?


I've just asked to join. Facebook isn't the right place though. That's where I see who my children are friends with, and occasionally I see an ex or two.

Linkedin is a work thing - I'm linked to clients and suppliers, not many friends. I think GEI would fit in well there.

#12 shanehicks

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Posted 02 December 2010 - 09:20 AM

QUOTE (Grimbert @ Dec 1 2010, 10:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
That's interesting. I am on Linkedin because our marketing department asked us to, so the company would get more web presence. I haven't bothered much with my profile, cv or anything. But then I'm not actively seeking another job.

How do you seek potential recruits? Is it on-screen adverts that target me because of keywords in my profile or some other clever way? Do you get to contact people directly based on some search criteria?


Potential recruits are split into 2 groups, active job seekers and passive job seekers - sites such as monster, career builder etc are great for targeting active job seekers with databases such as Linkedin and Jigsaw used for passive

Passive job seekers are perceived to be more valuable as they are more likely to be high performers not looking to move....but they are hard work! Linkedin is great as you can target competitors directly via their search function, you then connect or send an 'inmail' to initiate a conversation.

If you are looking to promote GEI I would certainly set up a profile and group to allow others to 'connect' as a community then use the group search function to target other 'investor' type groups to promote yourselves - this could really help as part of your overall SEO / promotion activity. Please PM me if you would like a webex demo to show you what I mean...



#13 DrBubb

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Posted 02 December 2010 - 04:54 PM

Here's another fashionable business in trouble: Microfinance !

Bloomberg has just done a story on the "Microfinance Crisis"

The recent successful ipo (SKF?) has brought a surge of copycats seeking a profit.

And now they are being accused of charging excessive rates.

When finance businesses grow too fast, they forget a key success factor:
Know your customer !
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#14 emel

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Posted 09 December 2010 - 03:34 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Dec 1 2010, 03:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I set up a facebook page for GEI, but haven't seen any benefit from it.
:: http://www.facebook....100001689102135


A quick comment on your observations about Facebook. I don't think you'll get much benefit from it the way you are using it, as you have set up GEI to be a profile rather than a 'fan page'.

I get no value from your profile page as I'm not one of your 'friends'. I don't want to be a be 'friends' with GEI as this will give you access to my Facebook private data. Not that I don't trust you of course, but the reality is I don't want to enter into this sort of 2-way reciprocal relationship just to see what GEI on Facebook is doing. Basically, this type of profile is too closed for me.

The alternative is to set up a 'fan page' allowing people to 'like' you. This is a more simple, more open, one-way relationship and doesn't require me to give you access to my details (incidentally, the same sort of relationship that twitter uses). This sort of arrangement will better encourage the sort of open debates GEI is known for. Once people are seen to be commenting on the various things you post, you'll gain more readers.

Compare your current profile, where I can't see anything because I don't want to 'friend' you, vs this one I look at for Jalopnik, a car blog...

http://www.facebook.com/jalopnik

Here, new items are posted for each new story, and there is a lot of conversation. You can even set up the page to post new items when new threads are created (through RSS), but that might work better for blogs rather than forums. Of course, I first found out that Jalopnik was on Facebook when I noticed my friend liking them. This is the nature of this sort of social-based ecosystem.

This is a good guide I've found on setting up these pages.

http://mashable.com/...ok-pages-guide/

If you set one of these fan pages up, I'd certainly 'like' GEI.



#15 DrBubb

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Posted 09 December 2010 - 03:46 AM

QUOTE (emel @ Dec 9 2010, 11:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The alternative is to set up a 'fan page' allowing people to 'like' you. This is a more simple, more open, one-way relationship and doesn't require me to give you access to my details (incidentally, the same sort of relationship that twitter uses). This sort of arrangement will better encourage the sort of open debates GEI is known for. Once people are seen to be commenting on the various things you post, you'll gain more readers.

Thanks for those tips.
But I don't see why people cannot say they "Like" GEI on Facebook, the way that it is. Can only Fan pages be "liked"?

To be honest, I have limited time, and so I don't want to spend any significant time "worrying" about GEI's facebook presence.

But is someone else who uses Facebook wants to set up a fan page there, that would be wonderful.

I sincerely hope that People who spend time on GEI will find it worthwhile. I certainly do not want to double my time commitment, and recreate the GEI experience there.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#16 DrBubb

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Posted 09 December 2010 - 03:49 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Nov 30 2010, 09:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The outrageous bubble that is Facebook,
When will sheeple turn on this time sink?
===========================

A $50 Billion Valuation? Are they kidding??
Even Yelnick fell for it...

Carol Bartz has said that Yahoo offered $1 Billion for it.
The Fouders held out for $1.1 Billion, and the deal never happened
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 emel

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Posted 09 December 2010 - 04:45 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Dec 8 2010, 07:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Thanks for those tips.
But I don't see why people cannot say they "Like" GEI on Facebook, the way that it is. Can only Fan pages be "liked"?

To be honest, I have limited time, and so I don't want to spend any significant time "worrying" about GEI's facebook presence.

But is someone else who uses Facebook wants to set up a fan page there, that would be wonderful.

I sincerely hope that People who spend time on GEI will find it worthwhile. I certainly do not want to double my time commitment, and recreate the GEI experience there.


New fan page set up here

http://www.facebook....147840401935291

Let's see if it works.

#18 DrBubb

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Posted 09 December 2010 - 04:55 AM

QUOTE (emel @ Dec 9 2010, 12:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
New fan page set up here

http://www.facebook....147840401935291
Let's see if it works.

That looks great, Emel !

That's for setting it up.
Can you add this image anywhere?:

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 emel

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Posted 14 December 2010 - 06:59 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Dec 8 2010, 08:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
That looks great, Emel !

That's for setting it up.
Can you add this image anywhere?:


I added the image last week, and I've since got an automatic feed working which syndicates the latest content. This means that links to the latest threads are now appearing in the fan's Facebook newsfeeds. The hope is that this will create a funnel from Facebook to your site, increasing the reach of your site and driving new users (in theory at least!).

The next step is to try and generate some more fans, we are now at a rather lowly 7!

DrBubb, would you be so kind, as to send out a tweet encouraging people to like the new fan page. Something like...

Green Energy Investors is now on Facebook, become a fan! http://on.fb.me/gw6Z6H

For those that are interested, note that I've created a special link (using http://bit.ly) for this page, this allows one to look at stats about the link through this related address http://on.fb.me/gw6Z6H+

These types of links are good tools to ascertain the reach of one's message, you'll be able to see how many people have clicked on it in real time. It will be interesting to see how many of DrBubb's 114 followers on Twitter follow the link, and also if it gets retweeted elsewhere. This tool even gives one a geographical breakdown of the people clicking on the link.

Finally, Dr Bubb, you could also put the same message on your GEI facebook profile to see if any of your friends there want to be a fan of the page.



#20 DrBubb

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Posted 14 December 2010 - 09:13 AM

QUOTE (emel @ Dec 14 2010, 02:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
DrBubb, would you be so kind, as to send out a tweet encouraging people to like the new fan page. Something like...

Green Energy Investors is now on Facebook, become a fan! http://on.fb.me/gw6Z6H

For those that are interested, note that I've created a special link (using http://bit.ly) for this page, this allows one to look at stats about the link through this related address http://on.fb.me/gw6Z6H+

Thanks, for that, Emel.

Have have sent out the Tweet, as suggested
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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