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Peak Oil - Bull or Bear?


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Poll: Peak Oil - Bull or Bear? (104 member(s) have cast votes)

Peak Oil - Overhyped alarmism

  1. I'm a Peak Oil bull. It's over-hyped alarmism (5 votes [4.81%])

    Percentage of vote: 4.81%

  2. I'm a Peak Oil bear. This has the potential to take down our civilisation (55 votes [52.88%])

    Percentage of vote: 52.88%

  3. Undecided. It will hurt a but, but ultimately technology will resolve the issue (34 votes [32.69%])

    Percentage of vote: 32.69%

  4. Undecided. I don't really know much about it, thats why I am looking around this board (10 votes [9.62%])

    Percentage of vote: 9.62%

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#101 cycling monkey

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Posted 21 September 2008 - 08:42 AM

QUOTE (Hamish H @ Sep 19 2008, 02:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
What most people fail to appreciate is the scale of the problem.

Check out sites like theoildrum and lifeafterthecrash and chrismartenson.com.

The scariest aspect for densely populated counties is of the problem is food.

Without cheap oil, ( and hence also cheap fertilizer) farm productivity will drop.
The obesity epidemic will become a thing of the past !!!!!!!


Hi . 1st post. (Guess I should introduce myself in the appropriate place at some point. Came here from housepricecrash- partly drawn in by cgnao's accurate short term economic analysis. My dad used to go on about US debt in the 80's)

I think peak oil will manifest in the UK as a slow winding down of economic activity, in fits and starts, with the occasional city riots, as per the the 70's 80's 90's! Ok we are having huge shifts in the economy+ financial world, but I dont think things will get suddenly awful, or horrific (for the great majority), as others seem to think. A little bit of oil goes a long way to improve farm productivity, and there's so much slack in the system in the way that we waste oil. Nature puts most of the (solar) energy in for the food we eat. The fertilizer is just a 'vitamin pill' for the sick soil. Organic production with fossil fuel mechanical assistance can produce enough, especially when you consider all the waste in the food production+ consumption.

The obesity we have is often caused by malnutrition, bad hydrogenated fats in cheap manufactured food which accumulates because the body cant process it. With more organic farming+ focus on healthy food production hopefully the standard diet will improve, as it is often said it did during the rationing of WWII. Think the fashion for skinny models has peaked though!

Farm productivity in calories/acre might drop , but organic farming is prospering, and calories+vitamins/acre is on the rise!

smile.gif c.m


#102 lupercal

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Posted 07 February 2009 - 10:07 AM

I've become aware of Abiogenic petroleum origin. This should mitigate the effects of Peak Oil. In brief oil is formed by an inorganic process involving the earths mantle.


http://en.wikipedia....etroleum_origin

QUOTE
Abiogenic hypotheses were revived in the last half of the twentieth century by Russian and Ukrainian scientists, and more interest was generated in the West by the publication in 1999 of The Deep Hot Biosphere by Thomas Gold. Gold cited the discovery of thermophile bacteria in the Earth's crust as new support for the hypothesis, postulating that these bacteria could explain the existence of certain biomarkers in extracted petroleum.[5]



http://educate-yours...il05mar05.shtml

QUOTE
The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is not the work of any one single man -- nor of a few men. The modern theory was developed by hundreds of scientists in the (now former) U.S.S.R., including many of the finest geologists, geochemists, geophysicists, and thermodynamicists of that country. There have now been more than two generations of geologists, geophysicists, chemists, and other scientists in the U.S.S.R. who have worked upon and contributed to the development of the modern theory.


http://www.wnd.com/n...RTICLE_ID=47675

Hydocarbons are found all over the solar system
http://educate-yours...il05mar05.shtml


QUOTE
The modern theory is presently applied extensively throughout the former U.S.S.R. as the guiding perspective for petroleum exploration and development projects. There are presently more than 80 oil and gas fields in the Caspian district alone which were explored and developed by applying the perspective of the modern theory and which produce from the crystalline basement rock. (Krayushkin, Chebanenko et al. 1994) Similarly, such exploration in the western Siberia cratonic-rift sedimentary basin has developed 90 petroleum fields of which 80 produce either partly or entirely from the crystalline basement.



QUOTE
The thing is the future isn't something that's rammed down our throats. The future is a choice. The human race is six or seven billion odd people each of which is making choices every day. You add up all those choices and that's the direction of humanity. Each of us has fairly small voices, but you add up a lot of small voices and you get big voices.
James Gosling Coder.

#103 G0ldfinger

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Posted 13 October 2009 - 04:08 PM

Peak oil is yesterday. Shale gas will save us all. Right, Ambrose?

http://www.telegraph...-the-world.html

Energy crisis is postponed as new gas rescues the world
You can't tax deflation.
“Currency Induced Cost-Push Hyperinflation” vs “Demand-Pull (non-hyper) Inflation.”
The "no income --> no inflation"-thesis is as wrong as the "price control --> inflation control"-thesis.
Don't TRADE gold! You might lose your shirt in the biggest bull run ever. That would be embarassing. © possibly by Swampy
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Gold, silver, property, currencies, commodities charts.

#104 Compounded

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Posted 11 December 2009 - 07:57 PM


http://www.energybul....net/node/50923

Long article and quite complex but makes the case, that all the downturns since 1970 are due to preceding oil price volatility though nearly all have been generally ascribed to other causes.

1987 crash is seen as a clincher - oil price volatity (due to OPEC members in conflict) preceded it and no other cause has been identified.

It goes on to postulate that those in the know have fleesed the financial system to get out wealthy not as a conspiracy but they have acted independently because they know the system is on the point of total collapse due to peak oil.


We ARE going back to normal right now. Normal being honest money (gold) rather than debt-based fiat currencies which are not money. Cgnao
“What is fascinating is the extent to which gold still holds reign over the financial system as the ultimate source of payment,” Alan Greenspan September 2009

#105 riggerbeautz

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Posted 11 February 2010 - 08:44 PM

“Our message to government and
businesses is clear. Act now.”


A combinationof legislation and ‘encouragement’ is recommended

http://peakoiltaskfo...ch_feb20101.pdf
Never stop questioning - Einstein

When you blame others you give up your power to change - Douglas Noel Adams

Beware of MOOD HOOVERS they have a mission.

#106 underling

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 05:34 PM


Bill Gates on Energy @ Ted.com

http://www.ted.com/t...bill_gates.html


Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders. Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations. But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it.

#107 tang65y0

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Posted 12 October 2010 - 05:46 AM

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