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Bangkok, Thailand Property


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#21 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 01 April 2017 - 08:28 PM

Sharmila Whelan speaks to us about Wealthy Nations suggestions on how to invest in Asia.



#22 DrBubb

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Posted 01 April 2017 - 09:44 PM

She says:

"Where do investors invest, in countries where there are strong growth stories":

China, Korea, Thailand and the Philippines
"We also over-weight India."

 

Okay.

But which cities in the Country?

And what about Supply and Demand Fundamentals.

For instance: Does she really want to ignore a 16% vacancy rate in Makati?

(That's what it is in the main CBD of the Philippines - or so predicts Colliers by year-end 2017)


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#23 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 02 April 2017 - 10:16 PM

http://thailand-prop...operty-in-2017/

 

There's good news and bad news for BKK and Thailand in 2017 according to this report,

cheers



#24 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 02 April 2017 - 10:23 PM

Denied Mortgages have increased 30-50pct from 2015

 

http://www.property-...ejection-rates/

 

That s obviously bad news if you bought a preselling unit...



#25 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 02 April 2017 - 10:31 PM

http://www.property-...ighs-this-year/

 

This is another headline from the property-report. (according to CBRE)

 

Quite amazing how it can rise despite all the mortage denials...



#26 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 03 April 2017 - 03:55 PM



#27 DrBubb

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Posted 04 April 2017 - 03:38 AM

Denied Mortgages have increased 30-50pct from 2015

 

http://www.property-...ejection-rates/

 

That s obviously bad news if you bought a preselling unit...

 

that is high!

What happens to the people who have their mortgages denied?


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#28 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 09:40 PM

http://www.ddpropert...rket-turnaround

 

The infographic confirms my idea that it is mainly Asian and European buyers who will drive this market higher.

However, the authors did not provide numbers which prove this turnaround.



#29 DrBubb

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Posted 22 April 2017 - 12:26 AM

Infographic-Foreign-Demand_EN_Final-1024

 

Oddly, higher prices may help spur foreign demand.

Why?

Because the higher prices may mean that the X% selling commission is now high enough to interest the agents in foreign markets to "handle" Thai properties.

That's what we see in HK.

Bangkok condos are now expensive enough to pay for the expensive roads shows in HK hotels - but the Philippines, for example, has not yet reached that price point

 

(At the moment the road-selling of TH properties is mostly done by TH agents, and PH agents are bringing a few of their higher end properties to HK):

 

“Thailand’s condominiums, especially those in Bangkok, have significantly lower prices than units in Hong Kong or Singapore and have good rates of return when leased and resold. These provide the positive factors which draw the interest of foreign buyers who make the purchases for both residential and investment purposes,” says Anukul.

Supalai and Eastern Star Real Estate are among the companies to have hosted road shows in China while Ananda Development has targeted buyers from Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. Sansiri was among the 1st Thai developers to venture into foreign markets and has sold a great number of units to buyers abroad. Despite the potential, there are also challenges developers face when selling to foreign buyers.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#30 DrBubb

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Posted 08 May 2017 - 07:29 AM

EXCELLENT Report - from MDS and UBS !

 

Summary

=======

UBS's View, 25 April 2017

.

: Bangkok, TH :

We  expect  2017  to  be  a  better  year  than  last  for  Thai  property  given  more favourable demand-supply dynamics in the condo segment. House prices are expected to rise moderately on the back of land price appreciation and an increase in the proportion of new condo launches in the high-end segment;  ... a short-term  strategy  employed  by  a  number of big developers to navigate through rising rejection rates in the low-end segment.  In  2017,  we  expect  moderately  positive  house  prices  growth  for  the  primary  market,  given  rising  land  prices,  and  an  increase  in  the  proportion  of  new  condo  launches  in  the  high-end  segment:  85%  of  the  buyers are Thais and the remaining 15% are foreigners.  For the secondary market, we expect prices to be flat. In Bangkok there can be a ~30%   price   difference   between   primary   and   secondary   pricing,   with local consumers strongly favouring primary over secondary property for purchase.

.

: HK :  We assume three Fed rate hikes in each of 2017 and 2018, in line with our  US  economists'  revised  view.  We  have  assumed  the  Fed  hikes  are  passed  through  into  higher  HK  mortgage  rates... We  estimate  absorbing  two  further  hikes ... Our  multivariate  regression  model  suggests  HK residential price growth of +1% in 2017 and -3.4% in 2018. We note our country team is more conservative, assuming Hong Kong residential prices decline 5-7% in 2017..

.

: Singapore residential prices have fallen 11.7% from their Q3'13 peak.
We expect the downtrend in Singapore residential prices to continue, given rising interest   rates,   elevated   vacancy   rates   and   slower   economic   growth.   Our  multivariate regression model ... is pointing towards a 4.5% fall in Singapore residential prices in 2017, fairly close to our country team's estimate of a 6% drop.

.

: Manila, PH :

Launches in Metro Manila declined 12% in 2016 but take-up improved (+25%) according to Colliers, resulting in a decline in inventory levels from a peak of  2.6  years  to  1.7  years.  We  expect  the  developers  to  respond  with  a  pick-up  in launches and capex this year.  Residential supply is forecast by Colliers to grow by 54%  over  the  next  five  years,  putting  downward  pressure  on  rental  rates.  A  decline  in  rental  yields from  6%  to  5%  may  put  into  question  the  ability of residential  prices  to  hold  in  2018...


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#31 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 07:08 PM

 

Peter from the Property Club talks about the advantages and disadvantages of living

in PH versus Thailand and PH is the winner because it offers him more income opportunities

even though Thailand is better for food, accomodation, electricity and political stability.






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