I found links to these two articles
/ 1 /
Economists Explain Why Our Economy Crashes Every 18 Years
Mar 25, 2016 - ... economist and director of the Land Research Trust, Fred Harrison. ... Harrison predicts the midcycle recession will hit in 2019, and the current ...
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Are we heading for a crash? | Albert Edwards, Aditya Chakrabortty ...
Jan 29, 2016 - Fred Harrison: A British recession will happen in 2019. Fred Harrison ... Fred Harrison is an economics commentator and author of Boom Bust ...
Fred Harrison: A British recession will happen in 2019
Britain is on course for a recession in 2019, a year before the general election. The crash will not happen before then because politicians and central bankers will appear not to lose their nerves.
The QE (quantitative easing) solution to the 2008 crash has rendered monetary policy useless as a fine-tuning instrument. Policymakers failed to adopt fiscal reforms that could have rescued the UK, so politicians have no tools to guide Britain out of the current turbulence.
Worldwide, central bankers will talk up any good news, hoping to persuade consumers to spend, even as wages continue to be battered. In the US the Fed will not take any chances in the run-up to November’s presidential election. Oil producers will finally do a deal to drive up petrol prices, which will be sold as a step towards normality. Debts will continue to grow, until a peak in house prices in 2019. Then the game will be up.
There is also this:
When's the Next Property Crash? - Share The Rents
By Fred Harrison on 13 July 2010 in Global Downturn, UK Economy. Finally ... It is ultimately, as Mr Harrison argues, a ruinous way of running our affairs.”.
relevant analysis of what caused the Depression of 2010. ...
... the new realism began when Martin Wolf analysed my book 2010: The Inquest in the Financial Times (July 8). He summarised the mechanism that drives the economy to distraction in these terms:
“Buyers rent property from bankers, in return for a gamble on the upside. A host of agents gain fees from arranging, packaging and distributing the fruits of such highly speculative transactions. In the long upswing (the most recent one lasted 11 years in the UK), they all become rich together, as credit and debt explode upwards. Then, when the collapse comes, recent borrowers, the financial institutions and taxpayers suffer huge losses. This is no more than a giant pyramid selling scheme and one whose dire consequences we have seen again and again. It is ultimately, as Mr Harrison argues, a ruinous way of running our affairs.”
That message has to sink into the heads of economists if they want to guide the western economy out of the depression...
. . .
Unless the Wolf realism infects mainstream analysts, expect the disarray to continue and for the next property cycle to terminate in 2025. Wolf has just been appointed as one of 5 experts to the new Financial Policy Committee within the Bank of England, which will operate “in parallel with its existing Monetary Policy Committee”.
Will Wolf be able to influence the Bank of England? Not likely. So a lot of traps await the unwary between now and the Crash of ’25.
So perhaps he means: a mid-cycle recession in 2019, followed by a bigger peak, and larger Crash in 2025.
That means the UK would be 1-2 years behind the US cycle.
I do note however that London never had much of a correction in 2008-9, so this 2019 drop could be something more serious for London.