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Bangkok, Thailand Property


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 04 January 2016 - 10:47 AM

Bangkok, Thailand Property

 

BANGKOK Prices are FAR higher (than Chiangmai) - well over Thb100k or even Thb200k per SM

 

 

 

Thai_graph2_zpsbkbewrnr.jpg :Thai-191_graph1_zpsrhti4end.jpg

 

Thailand House price changes
.
Year :: -Qtr 1 : -Qtr 2: -Qtr 3 : Qtr 4 / 4-Qtrs- : GDP gr. : Inflation : Real-G
2016 :: +0.08 : +3.32 :
2015 :: +0.34 : - 0.84 : +3.04 : - 0.15 / +2.39% : + 1.9 % :  - 0.9% : +2.8% :
2014 :: +1.59 : +0.70 : +3.29 : - 0.75 / +4.87% : + 3.0 % :  +1.9% : +1.1 % :
2013 :: +1.50 : +1.57 : +3.90 : - 1.40 / +5.61% : + 5.2 % : +2.2 % : +2.9 % : 
2012 :: - 1.80 : +0.10 : +4.72 : - 1.66 / +1.23% : + 9.7 % : +3.0 % : +6.5 % :
2011 :: - 7.15 : 20.80 : +1.25 : +0.09 / 13.67% : + 3.9 % : +3.8 % : +0.1 % :
2010 :: - 0.91 : 11.65 : - 9.78 : 10.84 / 10.63% :+11.4 % : +3.3 % : +7.8 % :
2009 :: +2.74 : - 5.64 :-13.48 : +2.61 /-13.97% : - 3.2 % : - 0.9 % : - 2.3% :
2008 :: - 9.05 : - 2.94 : +2.10 : - 2.74 /-12.34% : +0.00% : +0.0 % : 
2007 :: - 3.16 : +0.00 : +0.00 : - 4.71 / - 7.62% : +0.00% : +0.0 % : 
2006 :: +3.93 : - 1.67 : - 2.71 : +2.46 / +1.87% : +0.00% : +0.0 % : 
2005 :: +3.11 : +2.21 : +2.03 : - 0.32 / +7.18% : +0.00% : +0.0 % : 
AveQ : - 1.20 : +2.98 : - 1.33 : +0.57 / 9yr2013: +1.02%
============================

 

Someone on AsiaXpat is trying to sell a property in Bangkok, and

posted a like to this website: http://www.park24.asia/#price

 

OffThePeak (Jan. 2016)

At THB 7.46 Million, and 28.48 SM, you are talking about
THB per 304k per SM.
Can you compare that with other prices in the area?
I have some data on Thailand prices, and this is definitely on the high end, right?

It is a nice looking website, loaded with images, descriptions, and other info
 
/ 2 /
jay77hk
THB 7.46 Million for 28,48 Sqm is the developer price, i'm selling mine at 6.5 Million each that's 234K per sqm.

You are right it's definitely on the high end side but the project is located on Sukhumvit Soi 24 with plenty of Japanese expat and nearby Em District and Phrom Phong BTS.
The Mall Group owner of Emporium and Em Quartier is currently building a new mall and the whole area will be connected with a pedestrian sky bridge from Sukhumvit Soi 31 to the BTS station.

If you already have an apartment in Bangkok i'm sure you are familiar with this area which is among the most expensive in town.

Furthermore, Park24 will become the landmark of the area with a total of 5 buildings topping 50 floor high. Each building having his own 40m lap pool.

They are no nearby new buildings comparable in term of quality and facilities but if you check new projects being built around like Marque or Noble 33, prices are already well above 300K per sqm.

Let's have a coffee at your convenience, we can discuss some market info. I'm actually looking to expand my investments in the area.

Jerome
===== =====
 
See also, Chiangmai Thread:
+ xx
+ xx

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 26 May 2016 - 12:45 PM

Bangkok Condominium Market - Q4 2015

.

The Bangkok condominium market in the second quarter of 2015 continued to grow despite concerns over the spill over effects from the Thai economic downturn and rising household debts. The supply from the peripheral Bangkok areas dominated the market with new launches, now constituting 73% of

==

> http://www.knightfra...-2015-3737.aspx


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 29 July 2016 - 08:41 PM

Bangkok most likely to replace Vancouver as flight haven for Chinese economic decline/economic refugess?????

 

Hi

 

With Vancouver now imposing a stiff 15pct transaction tax on foreigners buying second homes over there, I believe we might very well see the end of rise of property prices in that part of the world, very similar I believe to what Singapore had imposed a few years earlier. So that always makes me very interested which other city will replace Vancouver and let's face it BKK has a huge number of advantages.

 

The city can be reached by land, without crossing the sea, and already has a significant Chinese population I believe. They also won't be

bothered that much as the racial differences are hard to notice perhaps. Yes I remember watching a Macro Watch video in which Richard Duncan warned about the troubles facing China and the fear that they might flee due to economic decline, but that is exactly what's going to happen.

 

In my opinion China will continue to decline on the economic front. And I look at their own population. Foreigners, hot money flows come and go just like the ebbs and flows of the sea, they obviously have their own reasons for investing and disinvesting in different countries based on the exchange rate and economic potential they see, but when your own people flee your own country, you know it is GAME OVER, and game over for China it is.

 

On a side note, for the first time I have noticed that Thailands CDS are now lower than PH, so that indicates growing attractiveness of this country and a lower perceived risk. It happened only in the last few weeks I believe.

 

Thailand should also have a spectacular real estate price boom now, -- probably very similar to Japans 1985-1990 bubble boom - which is a rapid explosion in prices with very low economic growth, which then contrasts with PH, which will also might have a tremendous boom in property prices -- but at least the PH boom will be under accelerating high growth like 7 (now)-8-9-10-12pct by 2030, while Thailand will probably experience slower economic growth (which is slow now already I believe).

 

I have no investments in Thailand, but I consider the BAY AREA of the PH (Pasay) to have the same characteristics as entire Thailand, as this is the place where most tourists will probably stay during their first visit, so the same dynamics are at work here.



#4 DrBubb

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Posted 30 July 2016 - 11:55 AM

I don't see many enthusiastic foreigners buying in either Thailand or the Philippines.

Do you have any data or evidence for your theory

 

(BTW, Welcome to GEI !)


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 30 July 2016 - 09:11 PM

Criticality

 

 

Hi

 

I just think the one percent needs to be taxed several times, and repeatedly before they will finally get it. But getting it they will, I am sure.

It is the same like a stop loss order. Once the losses become too big you exit a trade.

Once the taxes  spiral out of control -- and they will -- it will lead to total demoralization and a strong desire to exit the system.

The problem is -- my theory is so rational -- and H Dent claims most people are irrational so I am also confused by this.

When the ships sinks the rats leave first, and I am just a rat in the rat race. 

Now with the Vancouver door closed due to high transacion costs, similar to Australia's, there are very few good options left, and I can

almost feel BKK will become their favorite now, due to lack of alternatives.

This is not the real motive btw for buying Thai property -- the main motive is the peak leisure spending of baby boomers and Thailand

will profit the most from this. So they will have their Japanese 85-90 rally and it will be big. Time to sell will be in 2030.

 

I don't care that i don't see many foreigners buying in either TH or PH, - it means it is still undiscovered.



#6 DrBubb

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Posted 30 July 2016 - 10:18 PM

Just provide some evidence that this is happening, and I will be more convinced

 

I have a friend with a property in Thailand near BKK, and he told me that he had to push his asking rent down by 20-25% to find a tenant.

 

It seems that the Russians have stopped traveling there, and it is now much tougher to find tenants


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 11 August 2016 - 03:40 PM

The future is in the charts

 

 

Hi

 

I don t know if you're familiar with Spending Waves and the charts that (try to) demonstrate it -- as it is very difficult taking into account migration of people - but

the spending wave predicted the early90s top in Japan, and many other tops in many other countries. For most of the developed world it is pointing down,

except for USA which owes it to the Latino/Asian immigrant population influx, --- That's the point, the model points to Thailand as the next big top to peak in 2030s

and then a sharp fall. Because then there will be "directional change" which I interpret as more "forced sellers" (die-ers) than new buyers, and the market

will have changed from a bull market to a bear market, which is what happened in Japan in the early 90s. 1. Less spending in stores, the middle class suffers,

2. More sellers than buyers for real estate, real estate crashes, 3. QE enters which destroys trust in the currency.  

 

Immigration is the difficult variable as strong immigration can change the local dynamics. Switzerland was pointing down according to early research by HS Dent

but as Switzerland gets so much immigration, the trend changed upwards. Sweden has the best model in the entire developed world, -- and this is the reason

in my opinion why these currencies are so strong. Canada should have peaked in 2008-2010 I believe but with all this immigration, the model has to be adjusted,

but I expect a severe reversal to the downside in Canada. The immigration model is very difficult to maintain long term as a growth strategy in my opinion,

as lower birth rates require an ever bigger immigration, and there will be public resistance to this,

 

I actually expect a big rally in Thailand as well as MNL as capital only flees to non-muslim countries in the world. The Asean muslim countries Malaysia-Indonesia

will never attract enough capital because muslim religion does not allow the charging of interest rates. All the great powers the last 500 years were all non muslim

countries.



#8 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 19 August 2016 - 11:09 AM

More Chinese are buying in Thailand.

 

 

Here is the evidence:

 

http://www.btsproper...nese-investors/

 

“Thailand could greatly profit from the projected massive increase of Chinese international property investment in the coming decade. It could easily displace other countries that are currently more popular with Chinese buyers.”



#9 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 30 August 2016 - 08:45 PM

Park 24 seems to be dropping in value

 

 

Hi

 

 

I came across a website which tracks historical prices for this development and it is trending down.

 

https://www.hipflat..../ls/th-gapsyttu

 

So let's hope our French friend was able to sell it in time.



#10 DrBubb

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Posted 04 September 2016 - 10:11 AM

This CHART suggests : the Trend still UP

 

My theory (based on experience in other countries) is this

The stock charts of major property developers will turn down at the same time, or BEFORE the Bangkok property market peaks

Here''s one of the biggest, who is the developer of a project that I have invested in:

 

SPALI / Supalai PCL... update

SPALI_zpstnudzrfv.gif

 

Please note, the RSI / the relative strength index, is usually better at pinpointing lows than highs

 

We may be in the "topping zone" but that can carry on for some time


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 04 September 2016 - 08:19 PM

A pattern emerges

 

https://www.hipflat..../ls/th-fejwkndt

 

Hi

 

We can clearly notice that the lumpini appears to rise slowly in value.

So my impression is that higher priced real estate everywhere in the world, including Thailand and PH, is having a difficult time.

It is the reason why Century Properties PH share price is not doing very well -- but they've understood it and they are going

to concentrate on the lower end of the market now as well.

But at the lower end of the spectrum, - where real local demand plays a major role - prices appear to appreciate slowly.

 

http://www.skyscrape...1739427&page=15

There appears to be another price increase for Brixton's and unlike Makati and BGC where most foreign capital is attracted

to -- few foreigners are attracted to lower end and not so prime location developers as DMCI.

 

Interesting that in Thailand they have composed an index which tracks the real selling price of these units, -- and

not the developer's price which might not always represent the true market price.

 

I am going to find out more about this. -- Thailand appears more transparant...



#12 DrBubb

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Posted 06 September 2016 - 05:48 AM

"It is the reason why Century Properties PH share price is not doing very well -- but they've understood it and they are going

to concentrate on the lower end of the market now as well."

 

CHART: Century Property, in Makati, PH

CPG ... All :

CPG_zps1jy73k0k.gif

 

I see it differently.

Century has built an expensive product, in the WRONG location - they are in Makati's old "red light district"

 

knightsbridge%20res-%20map_zpskmx9wuwt.j

 

The high-paying jobs are in the CBD. To get to the CBD, residents in Century City will need to walk around Bel Air Village, the Western part.

 

Imagine it rains, what is going to happen?

Are they going to have a very long wait for cabs?  Or will they have to get wet walking around Bel Air Village,

 

Another problem is this:

The public areas of the buildings (Knightsbridge & Gramercy - not sure yet about Trump Tower),

are nice, but the flats themselves are not great.  I am told the "walls are particle board, not concrete", and so it

is very noisy for residents.

 

As a result, Knightsbridge and Gramercy are renting at under P 1000 psm, probably below expectations of owners

 

From OLX: Knightsbridge Flats for Rent
=========
P 24,000 / 27 SM = P 889 psm (F.Furn.)
P 26,000 / 27 SM = P 963 psm (F.Furn.)
P 28,000 / 30 SM = P 933 psm (F.Furn + Wifi)
P 29,000 / 30?sm = P 967 psm (F.Furn + Wifi)
Others available at P 30,000, and higher
 . .
From OLX: Gramercy Flats for Rent
=========
P 27,000 / 27 SM = P1000 psm (F.Furn.)
P 29,999 / 30 SM = P1000 psm (F.Furn.)
P 38,000 / 46 SM = P 826 psm (F.Furn.)
Other 1BR flats at P 40,000, and higher
 . .

I am seeing Flats for Sale at prices like these: (resales?)

Kn. : P 3900k/27=144k, P 4000k/27=148k, P6000k/33=181k, say P150k psm
Gr. : P 4000k/26.5=151k, P 5500k/39=141k, say P146k psm

 

P950 x12 = 11.4/ 150k = 7.6% Gross yield, which is not far from the levels Colliers reports for Makati CBD
 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 DrBubb

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 07:23 AM

Thailand's economic downturn weighs on property market ... Aug 18, 2016

thailand-house-prices-4.gif

 

Having approved a new Constitution, with campaigning against it being punishable by 10 years in prison, Thailand seems fated to perpetual government by military junta. Even if there is an election in 2017, the prime minister will be appointed  by the military, as will a powerful 250-seat Senate. But with Thailand´s urban electors thoroughly tired of street demonstrations and clashes, for the moment many seem willing to tolerate what they´ve got.  After all, Bangk

 

The property market has meanwhile been slowing:

  • The condominium segment saw price rises slow to 4.7% (5.2% inflation-adjusted) during the year to Q1 2016, down from 8.9% (9.5% inflation-adjusted) during the year to Q1 2015, according to the Bank of Thailand (BoT).
  • Townhouse price rises decelerated to 3.1% (3.6% inflation-adjusted) during the year to Q1 2016, from 7.3% (7.8% inflation-adjusted) during the year to Q1 2015; although the figure is a slight improvement from the previous quarter’s 3.0% growth (3.9% inflation-adjusted).
  • The single-detached housing market dropped, albeit slightly, by 0.1% during the year to Q1 2016 (0.4% inflation-adjusted) - compared to price growth a year ago of 6.5% (7% inflation-adjusted).

Developers should be cautious in property development as “the economy remains slow, with high household debt, and low prices of agricultural products having an impact on consumers’ purchasing power,” has warned Bank of Thailand (BoT) Senior Director Don Nakornthab

. . .

“Large-scale projects are very risky as the market is not that good,” says Opas Sripayak, managing director of SET-listed L.P.N. Development Plc

Presales by the 15 SET-listed developers in the first quarter of 2016 were down 3.3% y-o-y to THB 48 billion (USD 1.4 billion), and down 9.7% from the previous quarter, according to Asia Plus Securities´ Therdsak Thaveeteeratham.  Developer profits are expected to decline following the expiration in April 2016 of government measures to reduce transfer and mortgage fees.

Developers are visibly worried.  Nothing makes this clearer than the aggressive marketing campaigns launched to boost second-quarter sales...

. . .

Larger apartments yield more

According to the latest Global Property Guide research, rental yields in the capital, Bangkok, range from 5.0% to 8.0%.

Unlike most countries’ major cities, yields on medium-sized apartments (120 sq. m.) in Bangkok are higher than on smaller apartments.  A 60-square metre (sq.m.) apartment in Bangkok’s central location now earns gross rental yields of around 5.6%, while a 120-sq.m. apartment also centrally located, earns gross rental yields of around 8.0%.

Tighter lending criteria, higher mortgage rejection rates

Reacting to worries about the property market, some of Thailand’s banks have hiked mortgage rejection rates to 30-35%, against 25-30% under normal conditions. The country’s fourth largest bank, Kasikornbank, rejects around 50% of mortgage applications from “walk-in customers or those in the provinces, who have been affected by high debts or low farm prices,” according to Alongkot Boonmasuk, an executive at Kasikornbank.

. . .

BoT keeps benchmark interest rate steady, although the IMF recommends easing

Thailand-interest-rate-1.gif

The Bank of Thailand has kept its benchmark interest rate at 1.5% for the ninth consecutive meeting since April 2015 – with monetary policy committee members voting unanimously in favour.

This is despite the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) call for monetary policy easing. “[The country´s] negative output gap, falling consumer prices and downside risks warrant additional monetary accommodation… Without further easing, inflation is expected to remain below target for several years,” the IMF said.

==

> source: http://www.globalpro...d/Price-History


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#14 DrBubb

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 07:40 AM

Bangkok Overall MarketView Q2 2016

01 Sep 2016
 

CONDOMINIUM

In Q2 2016, the overall Bangkok condominium market continued to be slow. Demand still remained weak especially in the low-end market which was most affected by the economic downturn and the banks’ tightening mortgage lending criteria. Sales of newly launched condominium projects were slow in all grades in all areas.

The slowdown in the Bangkok condominium market was also reflected in the decreasing number of newly launched condominium projects. In this quarter, the number of newly launched condominium units hit a record low since Q2 2012 in the downtown area and since Q3 2011 in the midtown/suburban area.

 

At the beginning of this quarter, developers were taking advantage of the temporary reduction of transfer and mortgage fees by focusing on transferring completed units and clearing built-but-unsold inventory. This government measure has significantly helped speed up the transfer process. According to the Real Estate Information Center, the number of condominium units transferred from a juristic person (normally a developer) in April 2016, the month the measure expired, was as high as 17,941 units, 534% higher than the same period in 2015 before the implementation of the measure.

==

> Q2-2016 Report: http://cdn.cbre.co.t...market_view.pdf

 
Bangkok Overall, Q2 2016
Q2 2016 / CBRE Research / © 2016 CBRE (Thailand) Co., Ltd.
 
Average Re-sale Prices, Downtown completed freehold units (High End)
Central Lumpini : 202, 917
Silom/Sathom-- : 201,429
Average Price : 196,845  THB /sq m at Q2-2016
Sukhimvit ------- : 186,190
=======
.
Supply
Downtown Condominium +6.3% yoy
Downtown Hotel Supply   +2.1% yoy
Office Supply --------------  +1.5% yoy

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 07:51 PM

Hi All

 

There is a new guy, an Australian, who has recently launched his own youtube channel:

Property Club

Here's his take on Thailands real estate market 

He's quite bullish on Thai real estate.

But an 8pct ROI on thai real estate, -- that's probably way (too) optimistic.

 



#16 DrBubb

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 04:51 AM

"... an 8pct ROI on thai real estate, -- that's probably way (too) optimistic."

 

Probably.  And comparing prices in TH with HK and SG is, well, disingenuous IMO. Rents are way lower in TH.

I know friends with property near bangkok, who have found it tough to rent out (after the Russians stopped coming).

And they had to cut rental rates by 10-20% to get it rented.

 

His comment, Published on Mar 27, 2017

"Thailand real estate boom is about to be realized. Now with other Asian property markets over priced the next boom destination is Thailand. I believe Thailand to be the hottest property market in the world right now. Watch this video to find out why..."

 

The reality is: a boom has been underway for a long time.

 

The Australian guy may be making money from selling property, and is reluctant to get the full truth out.

Not everyone is as keen on balanced truth as I am (on GEI)

 

Index.jpg

Just a small piece of History on Thai Condo prices

 

191_graph2.jpg

Longer term - from Property Guide - which end of this move do you want to invest in?

(Btw, prices have risen more than 30% over that time frame in many countries)

 

An honest person would search for an post a chart of property prices in the long term.

You will find them on many of my threads here.

 

Here's one I found on Singapore, and we have been talking about a Correction being underway since early 2015

 

Singapore-Property-Price-Index.jpg


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 DrBubb

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 05:24 AM

Here's the NOT video that the first guy said inspired him

 

5 REASONS NOT TO BUY A CONDO IN BANGKOK THAILAND

 

"Buying to wait for property appreciation... That's not going to happen."

"Plenty of land that can still be developed."

 

After listening, he seems to have a negative emotional reaction to "flashy" condos,

beyond that he lacks any real logic for his argument, except that he seems to think

it will be easy to bring on new supply.

 

This sort of half-horsed argument is not very useful.  How about some facts and figures, guys?

 

"Inflation is always a problem," he says. 
What? I thought it was inflation (in rents and property prices) you were betting on, when you buy property.

 

He does mention taxes, but seems incapable to measuring their impact on the investment.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#18 DrBubb

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 05:48 AM

Getting by without a "proper" job in Thailand

 

Basically: Living frugally, saving, and generatng some income from Youtube

 

How I live in Thailand without working

 

"I could work again, but I am not in a desperate situation where I have to work"

"if you have a decent pension, you can live like a King, if you avoid spending that gives you instant gratification"


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 Traineeinvestor

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 09:12 AM

These sorts of videos, blogs, books, newsletters etc pop up quiet frequently. There were a lot of them floating around post-Asian financial crisis all basically saying the same thing : you GBP/USD pension/annuity/savings goes so much further in Thailand (Portugal and Cyprus were also popular) that, so long as you are reasonably careful with your money, you can enjoy a much higher standard of living than you can at home with a warmer climate and (for many) lower taxes.

 

This was all well and good until the local currencies started appreciating and, at the same time, property rentals started recovering. They also found out that, once the recovery got underway, inflation in Thailand was higher than inflation in the UK or US.

 

The point being, it's still a legitimate strategy and can be a good lifestyle choice but having a mismatch between currency of income and currency of expenditure is a significant risk factor.



#20 DrBubb

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 04:56 PM

FREE HOTEL Stay : Thailand

**************************************
In Phuket and Pattaya Thailand for April 10-17, 2017
Hotel developer is offering a free hotel stay, lunch, complimentary drinks etc in their properties there.

====
For more information, and to qualify, contact: Jaimee L, at: jaimeeis@gmail.com
 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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