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Hong Kong property outlook - and Data Base


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#1 davehk

davehk

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 06:21 AM

 === Hong Kong property Outlook - and Data Base ===

 

HKP-pic_zps569e62d8.jpg : Data-backup-no.341

 

"I think HK is on its way into a Long Cycle top... in the 2015-17 time frame" - post #4-Feb.2011

 

CCLI-2015_zps154e6ad8.png : update : HKprops

 

Taikoo_zpsbalm4kcv.png

===

Last (announced 01/06/17): $14,595 psf - 0.51% in the latest week. 

Could bottom below $10,000 psf in 2019-20

===================================

 

Hi all, Kung Hei Fat Choi!

 

I have followed with interest for some time now, the excellent information this site gives. A lot of us appreciate the time Dr Bubb in particular, takes to share his knowledge and expertise.

I was hoping Dr Bubb and others could share some recent opinions on the state of the HK housing market and how the new government anti-speculative measures will impact the market long term. I'm looking at buying in Tung Chung at the moment but am cautious in being sucked into buying high in the cycle. Tung Chung has many positives (low vacancy/ new hospital/ macau bridge/ new airport construction projects, etc) but I guess there's risks to the world economy that may change things.

Caribbean Coast centadata link -- http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

In other posts on this site (especially UK discussions), I have seen various diagrams depicting the way and timing of cycles. Where would you describe HK's current status on the cycle? Is it time to wait for a correction? Seems a long way off with cashed up citizens and record low interest rates.

2icboki.gif

Look forward to generating fresh HK discussion here and also contributing further. Thanks!
= = =
DATABANK

 

Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast : Clovell/ IslHarb: ParkAv: Waterf : Sorrent : ThArch : C'ribC : TaikSh.: fanling
Numb.: (  #1) ( #2,4): (---- #6) : (--- #7) : (--- #8) : (-- #9) / (--- #7) (--- #8): (- #12) : (-- #13): (--#14) : (--#-3) : (--#21) : (-#-5)
==== . .
PEAK: 146.92 148.61:(09/13)
Chg-: -6.55% : -6.43% :
 
PEAK: 146.92 148.61: (09/13) : 20,203 : 26,737 : 23,110 /13,270: 13,232 : 15,638 : 17,973 : 21,196 : 6,519 : 15,119 : 7,833 : PkC/CHt
Chg-: -8.92% : -11.7% v02/07 : --------- : --------- : -------- / --------: - 5.03%: -------- : --------- : --------- : -------:-14.41%: -12.2%
04/24: 129.87 130.06: 13,963 : 19,398 : 25,866 : 25.798 /11,212: 11,858: 14,382 : 14,990 : 18,728 : 6,543 : 12,318 : 6,707 : 8,510 :
04/17: 127.96 128.52: 13,884 : 19,289 : 25,720 : 25,653 /11,220: 11,836: 14,295 : 15,047 : 18,615 : 6,283 : 12,691 : 6,679 : 8,274 :
04/10:
04/03: 127.84 128.42: 15,544 : 19,288 : 25,719 : 25,652 /11,547: 11,786: 14,274 : 15,025 : 18,588 : 5,901 : 11,875 : 6,812 : 8,965 :
03/27: 127.46 127.55: 15,579 : 19,331 : 25,776 : 25,709 /11,670: 11,938: 14,348 : 16,176 : 21,403 : 5,570 : 11,482 : 6,826 : 8,487 :
03/20: 000.00 00.000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00.000: 00.000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 0,000 :
03/13: 127.50 127.73: 16,715 : 19,279 : 25,707 : 25,639 /10,988: 11,902: 14,131 : 16,376 : 21,293 : 5,836 : 12,472 : 6,788 : 8,075 :
03/06: 130.30 130.06: 16,838 : 19,421 : 25,896 : 25,828 /11,048: 12,168: 14,383 : 16,521 : 21,483 : 6,559 : 12,471 : 6,894 : 8,504 :
02/28: 130.??
02/21: 130.77 130.93: 16,811 : 19,390 : 25,855 : 25,787 /11,130: 12,553: 14,376 : 14,661 : 21,471 : 6,223 : 12,910 : 6,680 : 8,333 :
02/14: 130.58 130.79: 16,801 : 19,378 : 25,839 : 25,771 /11,140: 12,565: 14,371 : 14,657 : 21,465 : 6,243 : 12,928 : 6,849 : 8,046 :
02/07: 131.01 131.29: 16,807 : 19.384 : 25,848 : 25,780 /11,141: 12,566: 14,377 : 14,662 : 21,473 : 6,421 : 12,941 : 6,877 : 8,288 :
01/31: 131.95 132.35: 16,872 : 19,460 : 25,948 : 25,880 /11,117: 12,108: 14,380 : 14,666 : 21,478 : 6,808 : 12,779 : 7,138 : 8,890 :
01/24: 132.90 134.03: 16,859 : 19,444 : 25,927 : 25,860 /12,215: 12,931: 15,247 : 15,488 : 21,506 : 6,833 : 12,975 : 7,180 : 9,069 :
01/17: 134.95 136.44: 16,896 : 19,487 : 25,985 : 25,917 /12,746: 12,214: 15,362 : 15,604 : 21,667 : 6,848 : 13,585 : 7,539 : 9,081 :
01/10:
01/03: 135.82 136.54: 17,033 : 19,646 : 26,196 : 26,127 /12,641: 13,207 : 15,458 : 16,541 : 21,803 : 6,454 : 12,283 : 7,542 : 9,421
12/27: 135.89 136.60: 17,047 : 19,662 : 26,217 : 26.149 /12,429: 12,985 : 15,387 : 16,465 : 21,703 : 6,487 : 12,243 : 7,568 : 9,436
12/20: 136.86
12/13: 137.30 139.05: 17,050 : 19,664 : 26,220 : 26,152 /12,511: 13,071 : 15,369 : 16,446 : 21,678 : 6,524 : 12,721 : 7,650 :
12/06: 138.22 140.11: 17,061 : 19,827 : 26,239 : 26,171 /12,513: 13,072 : 15,381 : 16,458 : 21,694 : 6,526 : 13,674 : 7,636
11/29: 139.82 141.57: 17,125 : 19,901 : 26,338 : 26,269 /12,527: 12,979 : 15,443 : 16,525 : 21,782 : 6,856 : 13,731 : 6,856 :
11/22: 140.27 141.80:
11/15: 141.13 142.74: 17,179 : 19,963 : 26,419 : 26,350 /13,228: 13,449 : 16,612 : 21,896 : 21,896 : 6,850 : 13,840 : 7,686 :
11/08: 142.14 143.62:
11/01: 141.76 142.96: 17,226 : 20,018 : 26,493 : 26,423 /13,219: 13,002 : 15,506 : 16,592 : 21,871 : 6,675 : 14,476 : 7,662 :
10/25: 142.98 144.05: 17,315 : 20,121 : 26,629 : 26,559 /13,171: 13,391 : 15,603 : 17,933 : 22,008 : 7,047 : 13,947 : 7,749 :
10/18: 144.33 145.54: 17,339 : 20,150 : 26,667 : 26,597 /13,281: 13,503 : 15,625 : 17,959 : 22,039 : 7,035 : 13,997 : 7,778 :
10/11: 144.61 146.10: 16,123 : 20,129 : 26,640 : 23,026 /13,117: 13,337 : 15,555 : 17,878 : 21,940 : 7,050 : 13,989 : 7,746 :
10/04: 146.45 148.22: 16,168 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /13,179: 13,397 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 7,062 : 15,181 : 7,773 :
09/27: 146.01 147.61: 16,173 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /13,265: 13,484 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,514 : 15,101 : 7,772 :
09/20: 146.67 148.39: 16,180 : 20,201 : 26,735 : 23,107 /13,241: 13,203 : 15,628 : 17,962 : 21,183 : 6,508 : 15,134 : 7,817 :
09/13: 146.92 148.61: 16,182 : 20,203 : 26,737 : 23,110 /13,270: 13,232 : 15,638 : 17,973 : 21,196 : 6,519 : 15,119 : 7,833 : PEAK :
=====
09/06: 146.76 148.27: 16,196 : 20,220 : 26,760 : 23,129 /13,055: 13,368 : 15,696 : 18,040 : 21,275 : 7,076 : 14,937 : 7,727 :
08/30: 146.78 148.27: 16,199 : 20,223 : 26,764 : 23,133 /12,963: 13,273 : 15,667 : 18,007 : 21,236 : 7,577 : 14,923 : 7,708 :
08/23: 145.45 146.83: 16,169 : 20,187 : 26,716 : 23,092 /13,084: 13,487 : 15,682 : 18,024 : 21,257 : 6,719 : 14,335 :
08/16: 144.84 147.09: 15,530 : 19,999 : 26,467 : 22,877 /13,128: 13,533 : 15,601 : 17,930 : 21,146 : 6,647 : 14,309 :
08/09: 144.29 146.25: 15,545 : 20,019 : 26,494 : 22,890 /13,038: 13,556 : 15,581 : 19,024 : 21,120 : 7,247 : 14,268 :
08/02: 146.07 147.91: 15,671 : 20,181 : 26,709 : 23,085 /13,474: 13,569 : 15,647 : 17,583 : 21,209 : 7,022 : 15,186 :
07/26: 145.48 147.41: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00,000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,594 : 14,956 :
07/19: 143.32 144.96:
07/12: 142.62 144.57: 15,591 : 19,942 : 26,391 : 22,811 /13,022: 13,344 : 15,651 : 17,464 : 21,067 : 7,073 : 14,183 :
06/28: 000.00 000.00: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00,000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,656 : 14,243 :
06/07: 143.31 144.54: 15,493 : 20,014 : 25,251 : 22,894 /12,820: 12,965 : 16,454 : 17,515 : 22,361 : 6,500 : 14,315 :
05/31: 141.96 143.40: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00,000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,958 : 14,356 :
05/24: 140.33 141.79:
05/17: 141.30 142.33:
05/10: 141.37 142.68: 16,540 : 19,897 : 24,380 : 22,761 /12,969: 12,893 : 16,610 : 17,121 : 22,153 : 6,155 : 13,883 :
05/03: 141.46 143.28: 16,452 : 19,792 : 24,251 : 22,640 /12,845: 13,366 : 16,569 : 16,679 : 25,687 : 6,975 : 14,409 :
04/26: 141.22 140.98: 15,525 : 19,924 : 24,413 : 22,792 /12,721: 13,315 : 16,558 : 16,625 : 22,813 : 6,260 : 14,347 :
04/19: 140.04 141.27: 15,497 : 19,890 : 24,370 : 22,752 /12,664: 13,255 : 16,503 : 16,608 : 22,737 : 6,591 : 14,228 :
04/12: 141.60 143.12: 15,507 : 19,902 : 24,386 : 22,766 /12,623: 13,614 : 16,591 : 16,697 : 22,848 : 6,941 : 14,240 :
04/05: 142.36 143.90: 15,526 : 19,927 : 24,416 : 22,794 /12,599: 13,336 : 15,210 : 16,742 : 22,910 : 7,005 : 14,997 :
03/29: 139.70 140.95: 15,432 : 19,807 : 24,269 : 22,657 /12,651: 12,994 : 14,335 : 16,578 : 22,658 : 6,984 : 13,906 :
03/22: 140.05 141.81: 15,403 : 19,768 : 24,222 : 22,613 /12,622: 12,950 : 14,298 : 16,535 : 22,626 : 7,012 : 14,485 :
03/15: 139.03 140.70: 15,381 : 19,740 : 24,187 : 22,581 /12,624: 12,951 : 14,280 : 16,514 : 22,598 : 7,008 : 13,363 :
03/08: 138.80 140.46: 15,315 : 19,656 : 24,084 : 22,485 /12,689: 13,019 : 14,298 : 16,535 : 22,627 : 6,965 : 13,663 :
03/01: 137.12 138.67: 15,638 : 19,619 : 24,039 : 22,442 /12,437: 12,761 : 14,187 : 16,406 : 22,450 : 6,883 : 13,630 :
02/22: 136.20 137.34: 15,679 : 19,670 : 24.101 : 22,500 /12,641: 11,792 : 14,180 : 16,398 : 22,439 : 6,573 : 13,319 :
02/15: 137.20 138.52: 15,672 : 19,661 : 24,091 : 22,491 /12,640: 11,791 : 14,193 : 16,412 : 22,459 : 6,570 : 13,932 :
02/08: 136.64 137.46: 15,719 : 19,719 : 24,161 : 22,557 /11,447: 12,821 : 14,244 : 16,473 : 22,541 : 6,255 : 13,515 :
02/01: 136.35 138.01: 15,557 : 19,517 : 23,914 : 22,325 /11,533: 12,649 : 14,197 : 16,146 : 23,227 : 6,692 : 13,945 :
01/25: 134.03 135.01: 15,587 : 19,554 : 24,903 : 22,368 /11,378: 12,466 : 13,970 : 17,147 : 21,797 : 6,538 : 12,627 :
01/18: 134.64 135.73: 15,608 : 19,581 : 24,936 : 22,398 /11,366: 12,311 : 13,997 : 17,179 : 21,838 : 6,079 : 13,586 :
01/11: 133.64 135.35: 15,570 : 19,532 : 24,875 : 22,343 /11,333: 12,465 : 14,030 : 17,331 : 21,891 : 6,145 : 12,554
01/03: 133.34 134.43: 15,556 : 19,515 : 24,853 : 22,323 /11,234: 12,546 : 13,953 : 15,674 : 21,770 : 6,538 : 12,883 :
st.2015
12/28: 132.45 133.50: 15,491 : 19,434 : 24,750 : 22,230 /11,083: 12,582 : 13,947 : 15,883 : 21,760 : 6,141 : 13,301 :
12/21: 132.69 133.76: 15,524 : 19,476 : 24,803 : 22,279 /11,155: 12,664 : 13,973 : 15,913 : 21,801 : 6,160 : 13,504 :
12/14: 132.81 133.92: 15,516 : 19,465 : 24,790 : 22,267 /11,134: 12,640 : 13,976 : 15,916 : 21,805 : 6,534 : 12,264 :
12/07: 131.61 132.65: 15,470 : 19,408 : 24,716 : 22,200 /11,731: 12,334 : 13,879 : 15,805 : 21,654 : 6,681 : 14,032 :
11/30: 130.46 131.44: 15,447 : 19,379 : 24,679 : 22,167 /11,650: 12,430 : 13,910 : 15,841 : 21,703 : 6,275 : 12,678
11/23: 130.16 131.47: 15,423 : 19,355 : 24,650 : 22,140 /11,599: 11,952 : 13,862 : 15,787 : 21,628 : 6,247 : 11,960 
11/16: 129.61 130.95: 15,343 : 19,249 : 24,514 : 22,018 /11,444: 11,793 : 13,796 : 15,712 : 21,525 : 6,157 : 12,397
11/09: 129.69 130.55: 15,443 : 19,373 : 24,673 : 22,162 /11,428: 11,793 : 13,833 : 15,688 : 21,582 : 6,368 : 12,111
11/02: 129.40 130.11: 15,425 : 19,351 : 24,644 : 22,136 /11,564: 11,934 : 13,883 : 16,349 : 21,661 : 6,205 : 11,801
10/26: 129.39 130.04: 15,510 : 19,410 : 25,681 : 22,203 /11,460: 12,308 : 14,534 : 16,313 : 21,613 : 6,356 : 12,668
10/19: 129.38 130.11: 15,503 : 19,385 : 25,648 : 22,174 /11,438: 12,156 : 14,520 : 16,297 : 21,592 : 6,356 : 12,668
10/12: 129.83 130.46: 15,545 : 19,437 : 25,717 : 22,233 /11,539: 11,673 : 14,573 : 16,356 : 21,671 : 6,274 : 13,178
10/05: 127.65 128.40: 15,423 : 19,350 : 25,602 : 24,326 /11,773: 12,151 : 14,254 : 16,243 : 21,520 : 5,943 : 12,368

09/28: 128.14 128.33: 15,414 : 19,337 : 25,584 : 24,310 /11,687: 11,807 : 14,297 : 16,292 : 21,585 : 6,346 : 12,705

09/21: 127.46 128.06: 15,362 : 19,272 : 25,498 : 24,228 /11,712: 11,780 : 14,240 : 16,226 : 21,498 : 6,028 : 12,711

09/14: 126.80 127.51: 15,331 : 19,234 : 25,448 : 24,180 /11,652: 11,720 : 14,192 : 16,171 : 21,425 : 6,048 : 12,669

09/07: 126.14 126.59: 15,307 : 19,203 : 25,407 : 24,142 /11,463: 11,827 : 14,221 : 16,205 : 21,470 : 5,979 : 11,985

08/31: 126.94 127.33: 15,374 : 19,288 : 25,519 : 24,248 /11,282: 11,775 : 13,831 : 16,210 : 21,478 : 6,076 : 12,612

08/24: 126.20 126.64: 13,664 : 19,235 : 25,449 : 24,182 /11,227: 11,960 : 14,562 : 16,206 : 21,472 : 5,855 : 12,268

08/17: 125.31 125.59: 14,534 : 19,208 : 25,414 : 24,148 /11,036: 11,900 : 14,531 : 16,172 : 21,426 : 5,842 : 12,530

08/10: 125.66 125.64: 14,552 : 19,230 : 25,443 : 24,175 /11,143: 11,871 : 14,557 : 16,200 : 21,464 : 5,870 : 12,540

08/03: 124.00 124.22: 14.174 : 19,101 : 23,273 : 24,013 /11,036: 11,966 : 14,555 : 15,188 : 21,306 : 5,809 : 12,404

07/27: 123.54 124.24: 14,125 : 19,035 : 25,186 : 23,931 /11,119: 11,707 : 14,532 : 15,381 : 21,271 : 5,810 : 11,552

07/20: 123.20 123.70: 14,148 : 19,065 : 25,225 : 23,968 /10,995: 11,647 : 14,379 : 15,343 : 21,218 : 6,325 : 11,768

07/13: 123.36 123.87: 14,140 : 19,055 : 25,211 : 23,956 /11.009: 11,661 : 14,386 : 15,350 : 21,228 : 6,313 : 12,468

07/06: 123.32 123.71: 14,176 : 19,103 : 25,276 : 24,017 /11.017: 11,670 : 14,398 : 15,363 : 21,245 : 6,100 : 12,413

06/29: 121.19 121.42: 14,044 : 18,925 : 25,040 : 23,793 /10,490: 11,560 : 13,875 : 14,279 : 21,119 : 6,081 : 12,134

06/22: 121.16 121.12: 14,072 : 18,963 : 25,090 : 23,841 /10,526: 11,891 : 13,912 : 14,317 : 21,176 : 5,953 : 12,139
06/15: 119.89 119.81: 14,073 : 18,964 : 25,091 : 23,842 /10,602: 11,865 : 13,904 : 14,309 : 21,163 : 5,645 : 11,719

06/08: 119.23 119.11: 14,041 : 18,922 : 23,789 : 23,789 /10,950: 11,771 : 13,864 : 14,267 : 21,103 : 5,630 : 11,724

06/01: 118.37 118.04: 13,237 : 19,155 : 24,962 : 23,718 /10,748: 11,356 : 13,789 : 14,274 : 22,134 : 5,592 : 11,294

05/25: 119.07 118.64: 13,747 : 19,239 : 25,073 : 23,823 /10,624: 11,594 : 13,192 : 15,379 : 22,987 : 5,603 : 11,149

05/18: 118.56 117.75: 13,729 : 19,215 : 25,041 : 23,794 /10,373: 11,319 : 13,124 : 17,042 : 22,871 : 5,947 : 11,219
05/11: 118.86 117.90: 13,716 : 19,196 : 20,016 : 23,770 /10,361: 11,246 : 13,127 : 17,044 : 22,874 : 5,653 : 11,346
05/04: 118.12 117.22: 13,742 : 19,232 : 25,062 : 23,814 /10,286: 11,120 : 13,069 : 16,969 : 22,773 : 5,713 : 11,248
04/27: 118.40 117.57: 13,708 : 19,186 : 23,880 : 23,757 /10,189: 11,148 : 13,036 : 16,927 : 22,717 : 5,660 : 12,592

04/20: 118.31 117.41: 13,721 : 19,204 : 23,903 : 23,780 /10,206: 11,167 : 13,040 : 16,932 : 22,723 : 5,786 : 12,523

04/13: 119.04 117.94: 13,754 : 19,250 : 23,960 : 23,836 /10,291: 11,260 : 13,109 : 17,021 : 22,843 : 5,627 : 12,587

04/06: 118.82 117.99: 13,702 : 19,177 : 23,869 : 23,746 /10,254: 11,421 : 13,066 : 15,442 : 22,769 : 5,698 : 12,555

03/30: 117.22 116.40: 13,695 : 19,167 : 23,856 : 23,734 /10,342: 11,405 : 12,450 : 15,732 : 22,687 : 5,695 : 11,392

03/23: 118.42 117.73: 13,721 : 19,203 : 23,901 : 23,778 /10,407: 11,478 : 12,487 : 15,779 : 22,754 : 5,484 : 11,681

03/16: 118.25 117.60: 13,721 : 19,203 : 23,902 : 23,779 /10,405: 11,475 : 12,478 : 15,768 : 22,738 : 5,453 : 11,316

03/09: 117.18 116.29: 13,727 : 19,212 : 23,913 : 23,789 /10,439: 11,513 : 12,479 : 15,769 : 22,739 : 5,596 : 11,295

03/02: 118.02 117.12: 13,705 : 19,182 : 23,875 : 23,752 /10,379: 11,446 : 12,905 : 15,774 : 22,747 : 5,787 : 12,011

02/23: 117.77 116.91: 13,694 : 19,166 : 23,855 : 23,732 /10,513: 11,594 : 12,941 : 15,910 : 21,563 : 5,758 : 11,892

02/16: 117.59 116.52: 13,697 : 19,170 : 23,860 : 23,737 /10,575: 11,663 : 12,943 : 15,912 : 21,567 : 5,800 : 11,004

02/09: 118.08 117.34: 13,747 : 19,239 : 23,946 : 23,823 /10,543: 11,627 : 13,772 : 15,920 : 21,577 : 5,796 : 11,016

02/02: 118.31 117.32: 13,732 : 19,218 : 23,920 : 23,797 /10,474: 11,552 : 13,779 : 17,536 : 21,588 : 5,785 : 11,410

01/26: 117.56 116.47: 14,122 : 19,229 : 23,240 : 23,811 /10,128: 11,262 : 13,670 : 17,397 : 21,418 : 5,809 : 10,552

01/19: 118.20 117.19: 14,441 : 19,225 : 23,236 : 23,806 /10,207: 11,350 : 13,710 : 17,449 : 21,481 : 5,854 : 11,317

01/12: 117.71 116.65: 14,391 : 19,159 : 23,155 : 23,724 /10,222: 11,367 : 13,703 : 17,440 : 21,470 : 5,698 : 11,331

01/05: 118.94 118.08: 14,377 : 19,139 : 23,132 : 23,700 /10,482: 11,839 : 13,703 : 17,710 : 21,650 : 5,820 : 11,409

st.2014

Efficiency -NA- --NA- : 82.24% : 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%/74.89%: 74.31%:78.37%: 75.51%: 75.24%:74.58%: 87.32%

12/29: Prices / NetSF : 17,519 : 24,292 : 29,616 : 28,444 /14,397: 16,586 : 17,758 : 23,636 : 29,001 : 7,734 : 12,524

12/29: 119.07 118.19: 14,407 : 19,180 : 23,181 : 23,750 /10,783: 12,325 : 13,926 : 17,849 : 21,820 : 5,768 : 10,936  

12/22: 118.95 117.86: 14,427 : 19,207 : 23,213 : 23,782 /10,575: 12,086 : 13,868 : 17,774 : 21,728 : 5,801 : 10,965

12/15: 118.61 117.49: 14,431 : 19,212 : 23,219 : 23,789 /10,441: 11,933 : 13,813 : 17,704 : 21,642 : 5,807 : 10,627

12/08: 118.96 118.16: 13,247 : 19,816 : 23,177 : 23,746 /10,543: 12,050 : 13,280 : 16,816 : 21,662 : 5,796 : 10,712

12/01: 119.53 118.56: 13,311 : 19,911 : 23,288 : 23,859 /10,601: 12,116 : 13,518 : 16,875 : 21,739 : 5,792 : 10,786
11/24: 120.39 119.64: 13,672 : 19,916 : 23,294 : 23,866 /10,499: 12,000 : 13,485 : 16,834 : 21.979 : 5,961 : 10,864

11/17: 120.13 119.39: 12,715 : 19,917 : 23,295 : 23,867 /10,481: 11,979 : 13,469 : 16,814 : 21,954 : 5,795 : 11,986

11/10: 119.93 119.16: 12,706 : 19,904 : 23,280 : 23,851 /10,494: 11,994 : 13,471 : 16,817 : 21,957 : 5,816 : 11,696

11/03: 120.72 120.03: 12,730 : 19,940 : 23,323 : 23,896 /10,454: 11,949 : 13,485 : 17,051 : 21,980 : 5,984 : 11,872

10/27: 119.50 118.67: 12,717 : 19,920 : 23,299 : 23,871 /10,576: 11,958 : 13,468 : 17,029 : 21,339 : 5,768 : 10,869

10/20: 120.08 119.41: 12,718 : 19,921 : 23,301 : 23,871 /10,597: 11,982 : 13,477 : 17,040 : 21,353 : 6,039 : 11,709
10/13: 119.87 119.11: 12,715 : 19,917 : 23,296 : 23,868 /10,514: 11,603 : 13,757 : 17,006 : 21,620 : 5,995 ; 11,741
10/06: 119.83 118.97: 12,707 : 19,905 : 23,281 : 23,853 //9,989 : 11,647 : 13,779 : 17,034 : 22,341 : 5,980 : 11,986
09/29: 120.00 119.37: 12,691 : 19,879 : 23,251 : 23,821 /10,051 : 11,719 : 13,787 : 17,043 : 22,353 : 6,004 : 11,950

09/22: 121.08 120.61: 12,783 : 20,024 : 23,421 : 23,996 /10,039 : 11,706 : 14,348 : 16,502 : 21,352 : 6,267 : 12,453

09/15: 120.84 120.39: 12,779 : 20,018 : 23,413 : 23,988 /10,035 : 11,701 : 14,336 : 16,489 : 20,664 : 6,291 : 12,458
09/08: 121.94 121.32: 12,816 : 20,076 : 23,841 : 20,076 /10,014 : 11,463 : 14,379 : 17,234 : 21,115 : 6,303 : 12,489
09/01: 120.86 120.44: 12,669 : 19,845 : 23,211 : 23,781 /10,046 : 11,858 : 13,777 : 17,202 : 21,076 : 6,329 : 12,484
08/25: 119.85 119.17: 12,697 : 19,889 : 23,263 : 23,834 /10,018 : 11,826 : 13,759 : 17,179 : 21,047 : 5,686 : 11,853
08/18: 119.79 119.54: 12,631 : 19,787 : 23,143 : 23,711 /10,007 : 11,813 : 13,722 : 15,069 : 20,993 : 5,686 : 11,751
08/11: 119.30 118.69: 12,661 : 19,833 : 23,197 : 23,766 // 9,934 : 11,062 : 14,795 : 15,059 : 20,980 : 5,343 : 11,781
08/04: 120.41 119.74: 12,684 : 19,869 : 23,239 : 23,809 /10,159 : 11,312 : 14,931 : 15,198 : 21,172 : 5,935 : 11,880
07/28: 120.95 120.29: 13,445 : 19,903 : 23,279 : 23,850 /10,076 : 11,850 : 14,920 : 15,186 : 22,183 : 6,021 : 12,001
07/21: 120.61 120.36: 13,374 : 19,799 : 23,157 : 23,725 /10,101 : 11,880 : 14,410 : 15,136 : 22,110 : 6,059 : 11,557
07/14: 120.14 119.82: 13,366 : 19,786 : 23,142 : 23,710 /10,136 : 11,921 : 14,401 : 15,126 : 21,910 : 6,054 : 10,998
07/07: 119.69 119.11: 13,387 : 19,818 : 23,180 : 23,749 /10,136 : 11,920 : 14,415 : 16,132 : 21,930 : 6,236 : 10,464
06/30: 121.88 121.58: 13,502 : 19,987 : 23,377 : 23,950 /10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 : 12,021
06/23: 121.22 120.64: 13,416 : 19,861 : 23,229 : 23,800 /10,019 : 11,783 : 14,413 : 16,129 : 21,927 : 6,320 : 12,162
06/16: 119.96 118.69: 13,454 : 19,916 : 23,294 : 23,866 /10,045 : 11,813 : 14,449 : 16,186 : 21,983 : 5,949 : 11,622
06/09: 120.74 119.57: 13,470 : 19,940 : 23,323 : 23,895 /10,072 : 11,845 : 14,463 : 16,186 : 22,004 : 6,360 : 12,256
06/02: 120.14 118.81: 13,429 : 19,879 : 23,251 : 23,822 /10,251 : 11,947 : 14,531 : 16,262 : 22,107 : 6,435 : 12,009
05/26: 119.06 118.31: 13,430 : 19,881 : 23,253 : 23,824 /10,026 : 11,649 : 13,760 : 15,031 : 21,826 : 6,130 : 11,847
05/19: 118.79 117.85: 16,070 : 19,830 : 23,193 : 23,763 // 9,971 : 11,585 : 13,751 : 15,021 : 21,851 : 5,883 : 11,912
05/12: 118.58 117.61: 16,066 : 19,825 : 23,188 : 23,758 // 9,981 : 11,597 : 13,752 : 15,021 : 21,852 : 6,032 : 11,772
05/05: 118.51 117.60: 16,089 : 19,853 : 24,180 : 23,791 /10,564 : 11,268 : 13,716 : 14,983 : 21,795 : 5,973 : 11,326
04/28: 118.84 118.08: 16,008 : 19,754 : 24,060 : 23,672 /10,673 : 12,150 : 13,755 : 15,024 : 21,857 : 5,877 : 11,710
04/21: 118.71 117.70: 16,036 : 19,788 : 24,101 : 23,712 /10,676 : 12,158 : 13,775 : 16,117 : 21,888 : 5,750 : 11,878
04/14: 120.12 119.35: 16,052 : 19,807 : 24,124 : 23,736 /11,207 : 12,198 : 13,807 : 16,155 : 21,939 : 5,795 : 11,936
04/07: 121.83 121.29: 16,080 : 19,843 : 24,168 : 23,779 /11,373 : 12,379 : 13,891 : 16,253 : 22,072 : 6,174 : 12,008
03/31: 123.01 122.22: 16,163 : 19,945 : 24,292 : 23,900 /11,419 : 12,430 : 13,956 : 16,329 : 22,176 : 6,160 : 12,131
03/24: 123.45 122.72: 16,175 : 19,960 : 24,311 : 23,919 /11,428 : 12,439 : 13,964 : 16,339 : 22,190 : 6,184 : 12,159
03/17: 123.66 122.98: 16,180 : 19,966 : 24,318 : 23,926 /11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 : 12,302
03/10: 122.09 121.41: 16,128 : 19,901 : 24,239 : 23,848 /11,413 : 12,423 : 13,916 : 16,283 : 22,114 : 6,420 : 11,519
03/03: 121.95 121.27: 15,168 : 19,889 : 24,224 : 23,834 /10,549 : 12,383 : 13,374 : 16,263 : 22,087 : 6,403 : 11,934
02/24: 121.64 120.97: 14,242 : 19,941 : 24,287 : 23,896 /10,917 : 12,147 : 13,168 : 16,227 : 22,037 : 6,325 : 11,939
02/17: 121.58 120.27: 14,241 : 19,940 : 24,286 : 23,894 /10,894 : 11,901 : 13,212 : 16,667 : 22,112 : 6,586 : 12,022
02/10: 121.73 120.41: 14,280 : 19,994 : 24,352 : 23,960 /10,889 : 11,896 : 13,211 : 16,666 : 22,111 : 6,350 : 11,805
02/03: 120.66 119.40: 13,692 : 19,900 : 24,237 : 23,847 /10,547 : 12,114 : 15,331 : 16,609 : 22,036 : 6,215 : 12,309
01/27: 119.13 117.60: 15,144 : 19,818 : 24,138 : 23,749 /10,670 : 11,039 : 15,262 : 16,685 : 21,937 : 6,336 : 12,149
01/20: 118.38 116.61: 15,133 : 19,803 : 24,120 : 23,731 /10,664 : 10,993 : 15,260 : 16,683 : 21,241 : 6,281 : 11,815
01/13: 115.93 114.29: 14,982 : 19,605 : 23,879 : 23,494 /10,429 : 10,751 : 13,108 : 16,490 : 22,215 : 6,202 : 11,214
01/06: 115.60 113.93: 14,994 : 19,621 : 23,898 : 22,244 /10,478 : 11,211 : 12,741 : 16,502 : 22,231 : 6,071 : 11,041

st.2013
Efficiency -NA- --NA- : 82.24% : 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%/74.89%: 74.31%:78.37%: 75.51%: 75.24%:74.58%: 87.32%
12/30: Prices / NetSF : 18,221 : 24,835 : 30,512 : 26,639 /13,929 : 15,020 : 16,257 : 21,606 : 29,492 : 8,116 : 13,359
12/30: 115.78 114.25: 14,985 : 19,609 : 23,883 : 22,244 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 : 11,665
12/23: 115.18 113.61: 14,092 : 19,603 : 23,876 : 22,237 /10,514 : 11,719 : 12,753 : 16,332 : 22,210 : 5,957 : 11,429
12/16: 114.97 113.50: 14,072 : 19,574 : 23,840 : 22,024 /10,527 : 11,733 : 12,744 : 16,319 : 22,193 : 5,988 : 11,288
12/09: 114.57 113.20: 14,037 : 19,527 : 22,150 : 22,150 /10,229 : 11,699 : 12,715 : 16,283 : 22,144 : 5,995 : 10,892
12/02: 114.38 112.52: 14,035 : 19,523 : 23,778 : 22,146 /10,423 : 11,896 : 13,656 : 17,883 : 22,324 : 5,978 : 10,810
11/25: 115.05 113.11: 16,570 : 19,594 : 23,865 : 22,227 /10,293 : 11,749 : 13,633 : 17,853 : 22,286 : 6,042 : 11,590
11/18: 116.17 114.32: 16,597 : 19,626 : 23,904 : 22,264 // 9,815 : 11,584 : 13,602 : 17,811 : 22,234 : 6,198 : 11,695
11/11: 116.81 114.20: 16,717 : 19,768 : 25,410 : 22,424 // 9,984 : 11,784 : 14,531 : 16,714 : 22,466 : 6,361 : 11,528
11/04: 116.07 113.81: 16,666 : 19,708 : 23,167 : 22,356 // 9,975 : 11,646 : 12,887 : 16,680 : 22,420 : 6,194 : 10,911
10/28: 114.35 112.33: 16,564 : 19,587 : 23,025 : 22,039 // 9,925 : 10,805 : 12,736 : 15,744 : 22,906 : 6,137 : 11,461
10/21: 112.25 110.37: 16,336 : 19,318 : 22,708 : 21,735 // 9,864 : 10,738 : 12,649 : 15,583 : 23,432 : 6,146 : 11,317
10/14: 111.19 109.41: 15,804 : 19,268 : 22,649 : 21,679/ 10,048 : 10,897 : 12,901 : 15,555 : 20,753 : 5,814 : 11,091
10/07: 111.11 109.21: 14,469 : 19,337 : 22,730 : 21,756 // 9,780 : 11,298 : 12,407 : 16,922 : 20,729 : 5,904 : 10,798
09/30: 110.14 108.55: 14,400 : 19,246 : 22,623 : 21,652/ 10,018 : 10,804 : 12,341 : 15,017 : 20,620 : 5,657 : 11,485
09/23: 109,81 107.88: 14,478 : 19,348 : 22,745 : 21,770/ 10,099 : 10,892 : 12,809 : 15,602 : 21,015 : 5,628 : 10,700
09/16: 108.17 106.05: 14,340 : 19,164 : 22,528 : 21,563/ 10,089 : 10,880 : 12,784 : 15,572 : 20,975 : 5,556 : 10,262
09/09: 108.80 107.02: 14,343 : 19,169 : 22,534 : 21,568 // 9,976 : 10,785 : 11,176 : 15,506 : 19,828 : 5,498 : 10,578
09/02: 107.99 105.85: 14,360 : 19,191 : 22,559 : 18,625 // 9,952 : 10,837 : 11,891 : 16,102 : 19,822 : 5,561 : 10,582
08/26: 106.89 105.17: 14,324 : 19,144 : 22,504 : 18,580 // 9,622 : 11,021 : 11,811 : 15,995 : 22,319 : 5,404 : 10,538
08/19: 107.18 105.22: 14,342 : 19,168 : 22,532 : 18,603 // 9,671 : 10,741 : 12,197 : 16,052 : 22,612 : 5,447 : 10,893
08/12: 106.85 104.85: 14,311 : 19,126 : 22,483 : 18,563 // 9,638 : 10,815 : 12,324 : 16,031 : 22,582 : 5,412 : 10,292
08/05: 105.78 103.33: 14,313 : 19,128 : 22,486 : 18,565 // 9,659 : 10,988 : 12,822 : 16,052 : 22,612 : 5,162 : 10,208
07/29: 106.54 103.71: 14,375 : 19,212 : 22,584 : 18,646 // 9,663 : 11,145 : 12,879 : 16,123 : 20,313 : 5,345 : 10,689
07/22: 104.93 101.99: 14,275 : 19,978 : 22,426 : 18,516 // 9,362 : 11,096 : 12,831 : 16,063 : 20,124 : 5,123 : 10,211
07/15: 104.25 101.41: 12,156 : 19,067 : 22,414 : 18,506 // 9,247 : 10,960 : 12,759 : 15,974 : 20,011 : 5,114 : 10,061
07/08: 105.01 102.33: 12,511 : 19,078 : 22,427 : 18,516 // 9,262 : 10,978 : 12,772 : 15,990 : 20,031 : 5,031 : 10,759
07/01: 105.46 103.13: 12,586 : 19,193 : 22,562 : 18,628 // 9,300 : 10,976 : 12,762 : 15,491 : 20,569 : 5,179 : 10,518
06/24: 104.60 102.33: 12,489 : 19,045 : 22,387 : 18,484 // 9,241 : 10,906 : 12,712 : 15,430 : 20,487 : 5,185 : 10,546
06/17: 104.14 102.01: 12,435 : 18,963 : 22,291 : 18,404 // 9,232 : 10,896 : 12,686 : 15,399 : 18,599 : 5,110 : 10,530
06/10: 103.82 101.35: 12,457 : 18,997 : 22,330 : 18,437 // 9,225 : 10,589 : 12,699 : 15,415 : 18,618 : 5,070 : 10,185
06/03: 104.01 101.85: 12,455 : 18,993 : 22,326 : 18,433 // 9,252 : 10,620 : 12,686 : 15,398 : 18,598 : 5,205 : 11,093
05/27: 104.00 101.72: 13,777 : 19,733 : 22,334 : 18,440 // 9,643 : 10,710 : 12,740 : 15,465 : 18,678 : 5,253 : 10,659
05/20: 103.94 101.89: 13,697 : 18,052 : 22,306 : 18,416: 10,004 : 10,404 : 12,716 : 15,435 : 18,642 : 5,137 : 10,877
05/13: 103.35 101.46: 13,698 : 17,972 : 22,206 : 18,334 // 9,798 : 10,367 : 12,401 : 15,314 : 17,941 : 5,083 : 10,186
05/06: 102.89 101.40: 13,588 : 17,828 : 22,028 : 18,187 // 9,967 : 10,532 : 12,295 : 14,219 : 17,491 : 5,013 : 10,719
04/29: 101.12: 98.90 : 13,579 : 17,815 : 22,012 : 17,031 // 9,841 : $9,904 : 11,634 : 14,648 : 17,423 : 5,054 : : 9,922
04/22: 102.17 100.05: 13.644 : 17.901 : 22,118 : 17,113 // 9,793 : 10,022 : 11,636 : 14,651 : 17,426 : 5,221 : 10,663
04/15: 102.50 100.71: 13,610 : 17,856 : 22,064 : 17,856 // 9,390 : 10,442 : 11,661 : 14,682 : 17,463 : 5,017 : 10,886
04/08: 101.79: 99.76 : 13,800 : 17,866 : 22,075 : 17,080 // 9,493 : 10,477 : 11,668 : 15,102 : 17,473 : 4,865 : 10,581
04/01: 101.17: 99.15 : 13,795 : 17,860 : 22,067 : 17,074 // 9,550 : 10,401 : 11,641 : 14,441 : 18,548 : 4,871 : 10.384
03/25: 100.06: 97.97 : 13,723 : 17,766 : 21,952 : 16,985 // 9,296 : 10,105 : 11,346 : 13,907 : 18,359 : 4,926 : 10,373
03/18 : 99.17 : 96.75 : 12,738 : 17,747 : 21,928 : 16,966 // 9,230 : 10,160 : 11,380 : 13,949 : 18,414 : 4,766 : : 9,850
03/11 : 98.41 : 95.72 : 12,691 : 17,682 : 21,848 : 16,904 // 9,165 : 10,089 : 11,358 : 15,071 : 19,152 : 4,736 : : 9,615
03/04 : 96.69 : 94.28 : 11,591 : 17,531 : 21,662 : 16,760 // 9,029 : $9,937 : 11,244 : 14,269 : 18,960 : 4,751 : : 9,728
02/26 : 95.15 : 93.14 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,449 : $9,638 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 21,504 : 4,808 : : 9,702
02/19 : 94.38 : 92.10 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,580 : $9,784 : 11,160 : 13,048 : 20,058 : 4,770 : : 9,499
02/12 : 95.01 : 92.68 : 13,132 : 17,364 : 21,455 : 16,600 // 8,659 : $9,874 : 11,210 : 13,107 : 20,148 : 4,768 : 10,038
02/05 : 95.04 : 92,63 : 13,988 : 17,384 : 21,481 : 16,620 // 8,576 : $9,779 : 11,185 : 13,078 : 20,103 : 4,790 : : 9,873
01/29 : 94.47 : 91.91 : 13,981 : 17,377 : 21,471 : 16,613 // 8,770 : $9,663 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 20,031 : 4,730 : : 9,884
01/22 : 94.75 : 92.17 : 13,994 : 17,392 : 21,490 : 16,627 // 8,762 : $9,654 : 11,152 : 13,039 : 20,043 : 4,871 : : 9,875
01/15 : 94.31 : 91.66 : 13,986 : 17,383 : 21,478 : 16,618 // 8,762 : $9,655 : 11,146 : 13,032 : 20,032 : 4,667 : : 9,864
01/08 : 94.16 : 91.25 : 14,014 : 17,417 : 21,520 : 16,651 // 8,780 : $9,674 : 12,250 : 13,060 : 20,075 : 4,630 : : 9,295
01/01 : 95.47 : 92.41 : 14,080 : 17,499 : 21,622 : 16,729 // 9,135 : 10,399 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,378 : 4,631 : : 9,160

st.2012
12/25 : 96.68 : 93.89 : 14,091 : 17,513 : 21,639 : 16,743 // 9,100 : 10,147 : 12,431 : 13,252 : 20,371 : 4,610 : : 9,877
12/18 : 96.81 : 94.03 : 14,104 : 17,529 : 21,659 : 16,758 // 9,109 : 10,157 : 12,436 : 13,258 : 20,379 : 4,620 : : 9,882
12/11 : 97.10 : 94.37 : 14,128 : 17,560 : 21,697 : 16,787 // 8,950 : $9,980 : 12,379 : 13,196 : 20,285 : 4,619 : 10,357
12/04 : 98.13 : 94.30 : 14,189 : 17,635 : 21,790 : 16,859 // 9,016 : 10,054 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,131 : 4,834 : 10,379

2007
10/28:: 59.36 : 57.22 :

Historical Data : http://202.72.14.52/...rchHistory.aspx

63627550.png
OTHER LINKS

HiddenForum : http://www.greenener...p?showtopic=920
AXpat Forum :: http://hongkong.asia...-kong-property/
Cental-Data :: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm
GEI secret-- :: http://www.greenener...p?showtopic=920 : hidden thread
TLB history :: http://hk.centadata....&info=tr&page=0
Show Flats- :: http://www.gohome.co...ew-property/en/
Price Track :: http://eng.data.28hse.com/
AX property :: http://tinyurl.com/HKprops



#2 davehk

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 06:37 AM

Here's that Caribbean Coast link again http://www.centadata....aspx?id=008500

Interesting to note the rents are skyrocketing here. For CC, a 1200 sq/ft up at around $18000 p/m. A landlords market it seems.....

#3 davehk

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 06:52 AM

HK news--Prices staying the course


January 27, 2011

Housing experts predict the volume of property sales this year will fall from 2010 levels, while prices will rise 5 to 15 percent - down from last year's 21 percent - as more government intervention is expected to cool the market. Transactions in Hong Kong's primary and secondary markets may slump 10 percent and 20 percent, respectively, analysts and agencies said. That being said, Samsung Securities managing director and regional head of property Lee Wee-liat does not expect residential prices to slide much due to the current low mortgage rates.

"Even if the interest rates rise within these two years, the pace won't be too fast, and home prices won't fall easily," he said.

Lee forecasts property prices will climb 5 percent this year as the government launches more measures to curb speculation. "Homebuyers will be more cautious as they may find home prices too high after those austerity measures, so we foresee the number of home transactions dropping," Lee said.

According to Samsung, the average transaction value in the primary market for the first half of 2010 soared to almost HK$20 million per property - five times higher than the norm of HK$4 million per unit.

This indicated that a large number of the sales involved luxury properties, defined as homes costing HK$12 million or more.

The strong response of homebuyers in the primary market subsequently triggered a wave of transactions in the secondary market, where the average transaction value jumped to HK $4 million, up from the norm of HK$2.5 million to HK$3 million per apartment - similar to what occurred in 1997, when per unit price also hit HK$4 million.

"Mainland buyers will continue to be the main driver of the local luxury residential market," Lee said, adding they may have accounted for 40 percent of firsthand luxury home purchases in the second half of last year.

For the first six months of last year, Centaline Property attributed up to 35 percent of luxury sales in the primary market, and about 20 percent of deals in the secondary market, to mainland buyers.

Centaline research director Wong Leung-sing said 1,172 villas changed hands in the whole of 2010, generating turnover of HK$25.67 billion - the highest level since the HK$43.37 billion recorded in 1997.

Meanwhile, Midland Realty head of research Buggle Lau Ka-fai takes a more bullish view for 2011.

Lau projects that home prices will rise 10 percent, with trading volume declining about 17 percent.

Ricacorp predicts the number of residential transactions will drop 20 percent this year to 108,000 deals, or about 9,000 per month, while prices will climb 10 percent at major housing estates, and 15 percent for luxury homes.

Construction started for 5,397 flats in 35 projects last year - a 22 percent plunge from 6,887 homes in 2009 - according to Ricacorp head of property research Patrick Chow Moon-kit.

Chow forecasts construction starts to rebound to 8,000 to 12,000 flats this year.

"The actual levels of demand may be distorted by investment activities," said Samsung's Lee, commenting on the view that home prices are pushed up by undersupply.

Of the private flats built and occupied between 2006 and 2009, some 26 percent to 36 percent of them are being rented out rather than occupied by owners, according to data compiled by the Rating and Valuation Department.

Lee said those percentages were even higher than the 17 percent in 1996 and 28 percent in 1997, during the asset bubble before the Asian financial crisis.


 



#4 DrBubb

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 11:49 AM

The 18 YEAR PROPERTY CYCLE - Next Peak: 2015-17 ?

 

=== QUOTE / Feb 4 2011 : davehk =====
Hi all, Kung Hei Fat Choi!
I have followed with interest for some time now, the excellent information this site gives. A lot of us appreciate the time Dr Bubb in particular, takes to share his knowledge and expertise.
I was hoping Dr Bubb and others could share some recent opinions on the state of the HK housing market
. . .
Where would you describe HK's current status on the cycle?
Is it time to wait for a correction? Seems a long way off with cashed up citizens and record low interest rates.

=== End Quote =====

Hi Dave,

Welcome and Thanks for starting this thread.

I will give you a quick answer, and maybe a longer and more detailed response later.

+ I try to analyze property markets within an 18 year cycle, which I have described elsewhere on this thread, and also on YouTube. It basically consists of 14 years up, and 4 years down - though these time frames can "morph" somewhat depend on the general economy and longer cycles.

+ I think HK is on its way into a Long Cycle top, which I am expecting in the 2015-17 time frame. 

You will note that: 1997 (most recent peak) plus 18 years is 2015 and 2003 (most recent low) plus 14 years is 2017. From these two calculations come my expected peak.

+ Between now and 2015-17, theres is time for a decent correction, before a final "blowoff rally" into a peak around the time the Macau bridge may be finished, and when new MTR lines may be completed. These works may be give rise to excessive confidence and a final Long Cycle peak. (I am just guessing on this, but I would be monitoring how these projects effect confidence.

+ The "correction" that I am expecting might come from a jump in interest rates, as bond holders and others react to rising inflation, and force Central banks to lift interest rates. I think you will agree that a rise in HK mortgage rates to 2.5 - 3.0% (from present 1%) might bring at least a 10-15% correction in HK property prices. And it could be more than that, if rates go higher.

+ I would expect Caribbean Coast prices to track those of the HK market in general. You may have noticed that average prices in HK are running at something close to 46 times the Mass Market index, as released by Centaline.

<img src="http://img18.imagesh...7/ccnov2009.jpg" border="0" class="linked-image" />

(I may post more later - but I shall be leaving for a trip of several days from tomorrow,)


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 11:51 AM

QUOTE (davehk @ Feb 4 2011, 02:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Here's that Caribbean Coast link again http://www.centadata....aspx?id=008500

Interesting to note the rents are skyrocketing here. For CC, a 1200 sq/ft up at around $18000 p/m.
A landlords market it seems.....

Pilots are getting more money, and people are moving to TC and CC from other, more expensive areas.

We did manage to get $17,000 for a fully furnished 3BR about 2-3 years ago. Then rents fell back to $12 - 14,000 (briefly) in the financial crisis.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 davehk

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Posted 05 February 2011 - 04:46 AM

Thanks for your input Dr Bubb,

In your opinion, based on the latest bounce-back of transaction volumes in Hk following the anti speculation measures, would you expect the Government to intervene further? I would agree that an increase in interest rates would bring about a correction, however based on recent US treasury news, this does seem a way off. Unless of course if they adjust the peg!

As per the thread topic, most commentators are predicting a modest year for housing prices. It seems to me taking into account foretasted GDP growth, inflation, low unemployment, etc. this is probably true.

As for CC, It appears that the available supply is low of units for lease which would support these high rental returns for quite some time. Personally, I'm considering buying another as a vehicle to building equity with the mindset to get out before the peak. I guess the indicators of increased media "bubble reporting", govt interference and the like would indicate the timing to exit.

#7 YellowTip

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Posted 08 February 2011 - 03:15 AM

Hi everybody, this will be my first post on this amazing forum. I live and work in HK and am a casual investor. Nowhere near the sophistication levels of people like DrBubb. I am very eager to learn and share my opinions with the other forum members.

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Feb 4 2011, 07:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
+ The "correction" that I am expecting might come from a jump in interest rates, as bond holders and others react to rising inflation, and force Central banks to lift interest rates. I think you will agree that a rise in HK mortgage rates to 2.5 - 3.0% (from present 1%) might bring at least a 10-15% correction in HK property prices. And it could be more than that, if rates go higher.


While I believe a correction in interest rates for HK is needed, I don't see how it can come anytime soon. I don't see the USA increasing their interest rates while their recovery is still shaky. Has HK ever made IR changes separate from US IR changes?

I did notice how Donald Tsang at the end of 2010 warned people not to buy property, because interest rates are expected to rise significantly in 2011. I'm guessing I should take that as clear writing on the wall?

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Feb 4 2011, 07:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
(I may post more later - but I shall be leaving for a trip of several days from tomorrow,)


Do please share more. I'm eager to learn more about your thoughts and analysis of the HK property market in 2011. I too am looking on buying some property in the coming months in the hope they will have a steady rise until they peak in 2015.


#8 DrBubb

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Posted 14 February 2011 - 01:46 AM

QUOTE (davehk @ Feb 5 2011, 12:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
In your opinion, based on the latest bounce-back of transaction volumes in Hk following the anti speculation measures, would you expect the Government to intervene further? I would agree that an increase in interest rates would bring about a correction, however based on recent US treasury news, this does seem a way off. Unless of course if they adjust the peg!

Since this was posted, there has been talk of more "government action" in the way of putting more LAND on auction,
and property shares and the Hang Seng index have fallen.

So maybe the turn is arriving now.

Here's my favorite bellwether / predictor for HK property prices:

Henderson Land / HK:12 ... update


A further drop below $50, dragging the MA's down with it, could provide a nice confirmation that the HK property market is turning down
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 DrBubb

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Posted 14 February 2011 - 01:47 AM

Welcome, Yellow Tip
QUOTE (YellowTip @ Feb 8 2011, 11:15 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Do please share more. I'm eager to learn more about your thoughts and analysis of the HK property market in 2011. I too am looking on buying some property in the coming months in the hope they will have a steady rise until they peak in 2015.


I do not expect a "steady rise" into 2015.
Instead, I would expect a sizeable correction, followed by a rise.

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 surfdude

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Posted 16 February 2011 - 02:56 AM

A stall to China's growth story could be the catalyst that brings about the correction. China is now suffering from inflation concerns and attempting to apply the brakes.

I am going to start a thread looking at the disparity in China between the have's and have nots.

#11 surfdude

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 01:43 AM

An article in today's standard warns about the rationale for buying HK property now. The fear of not being on the property ladder may be stemming people to buy but is the time right? How do you know when the time is right. My intuition tells me(and following the market for the past 5 years) that now is not the time to buy.

Others comments?

Here is the article:

Buying a home holds no strong rationale
Monday, February 21, 2011

Hong Kong residential property prices are the most expensive in the world.
Those who are buying flats now are using one or more of the following five rationales.

First, I need to own a house to live in. Second, I have a secure job, which ensures timely mortgage payments into the future. Third, it is cheaper to buy than rent, thanks to the prevailing low interest rates.

Fourth, a home is a solid hedge against hyperinflation. Fifth, I won't have any trouble selling my house as mainlanders remain keen on Hong Kong property.

All five rationale are flimsy. Many people in Germany, Sweden and France rent a house their whole life. They are happy as they have more disposable income. Second, unless you work for the government, it is hard to find a very secure job in Hong Kong. Third, many expect the US Federal Reserve to start raising rates by the end of this year.

Fourth, global inflation remains relatively low. Food prices are likely to ease later this year when the weather improves and China tightens credit.

Fifth, rich mainlanders are smart and they are unlikely to overpay.

In 1997, many people bought properties for the right reason. In 2003, many sold for good reasons. Only the future can tell who is right or wrong. Dr Check and/or The Standard bear no responsibility for any decision made based on the views in this column


#12 DrBubb

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 09:39 AM

QUOTE (surfdude @ Feb 21 2011, 09:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
An article in today's standard warns about the rationale for buying HK property now. The fear of not being on the property ladder may be stemming people to buy but is the time right? How do you know when the time is right. My intuition tells me(and following the market for the past 5 years) that now is not the time to buy.

Others comments?

Here is the article:

Buying a home holds no strong rationale
Monday, February 21, 2011

Hong Kong residential property prices are the most expensive in the world.
Those who are buying flats now are using one or more of the following five rationales.

First, I need to own a house to live in. Second, I have a secure job, which ensures timely mortgage payments into the future. Third, it is cheaper to buy than rent, thanks to the prevailing low interest rates.

Fourth, a home is a solid hedge against hyperinflation. Fifth, I won't have any trouble selling my house as mainlanders remain keen on Hong Kong property.

All five rationale are flimsy. Many people in Germany, Sweden and France rent a house their whole life. They are happy as they have more disposable income. Second, unless you work for the government, it is hard to find a very secure job in Hong Kong. Third, many expect the US Federal Reserve to start raising rates by the end of this year.

No one likes missing a profit opportunity.
But the "fear of missing out" on more profits, when property is already expensive...
Is a poor rationale IMHO, and is a typical "late stage" phenomenom.

Owning now looks cheaper than renting in HK - but that is only due to ultra-low interest rates.

HK's rates are controlled by US interest rate policy, because of the peg. Adn without the peg, I think rates would be significantly higher - probably at least 2-3%, rather than 1%.

I think that the HK government has not been very clever about addressing the discrepancy in growth rates - and that is unfortunately. Because I think many HK people are going to find themselves owning expensive flats when rates do rise.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 desertorchid

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 01:03 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Feb 21 2011, 09:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
No one likes missing a profit opportunity.
But the "fear of missing out" on more profits, when property is already expensive...
Is a poor rationale IMHO, and is a typical "late stage" phenomenom.

Owning now looks cheaper than renting in HK - but that is only due to ultra-low interest rates.

HK's rates are controlled by US interest rate policy, because of the peg. Adn without the peg, I think rates would be significantly higher - probably at least 2-3%, rather than 1%.

I think that the HK government has not been very clever about addressing the discrepancy in growth rates - and that is unfortunately. Because I think many HK people are going to find themselves owning expensive flats when rates do rise.


What is happening in HK right now is truly astonishing. Rent is going through the roof and I am commonly hearing of rate hikes between 40-50%. Hong Kong may well be pricing itself out of the game in SE Asia as expats consider the true cost of living here. Some windfall gains i'm hearing of are eye watering. A colleagues is closing a deal this week for a 10 million HKD profit on a 7 million purchase in 2006. This is all madness and unless the government does something unpopular fast it is very likely to end in tears. But as always the question is when not if...............

#14 DrBubb

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 03:15 PM

QUOTE (desertorchid @ Feb 21 2011, 09:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
What is happening in HK right now is truly astonishing.
Rent is going through the roof and I am commonly hearing of rate hikes between 40-50%. Hong Kong may well be pricing itself out of the game in SE Asia as expats consider the true cost of living here...


The agents are frustrated.
Since the new tax was introduced, properties coming on the market have falled sharply.
What flats are on the market, are very high-priced, and the buyers do not want to pay those high prices.

I am getting calls on my property, but am very reluctant to show it - since I do not know where I could live if I sell out - I do not want to pay the high rents that I am seeing.

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 YellowTip

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Posted 22 May 2011 - 04:29 PM

Gentlemen, this very interesting thread has been inactive for quite a while now. From the other posts, it seems people are more interested in the state of the London property market than anything else.

I for one have just sold my HK property to cash in the 60% profit that I built up over the last 3 years. I know, it's not the usual story one hears of making over a 100% profit in less than a year, but my gut feeling always tells me that those cases are highly exceptional and more than often exaggerated.

My rationale for selling was that the secondary market in HK seems to be stagnating. Just look at this chart for a Le Bleu Deux property in Tung Chung:
http://en.homeprice....ck_2/17/D/4213/

This chart is very similar to valuations of most other properties in HK, ranging from The Cullinan to Harbour Green, etc. This in combination with the reports that secondary market transactions are dropping week over week and the fact that banks are starting to increase their mortgage interest rates, leads me to believe we've hit a plateau. From here the market can either continue to rise again, or it can start to correct downward.

My gut feeling tells me it will go down. No massive correction, but still a 15-20% drop.

While everybody seems to be talking about the interest rates, I'm looking at something totally different that is actually also affecting me personally.

I'm not one of those wealthy property investors with 10+ properties. I do have a very good job that by itself would enable me to get a very high mortgage. I just don't have a lot of equity (at least not by HK standards).

So here's my point:
Property prices have risen so fast that finding something decent for below 6.8M in Kowloon or HK island is becoming increasingly impossible. < 6.8 is the sweet spot where you can get the 70-90% mortgages. The moment you cross that line you're stuck with 40%. Then cross the 12M line, and you're stuck with no more than a 50% mortgage.

The only way around this is by going for a new property and making use of the developer's financing options. The developer will give you some kind of 2nd mortgage at ridiculous interest rates (for The Hermitage in Olympic they were charging 6%+ for the 2nd mortgage).

In addition, the new developments that are coming onto the market are pricing themselves at almost twice the price of the nearby secondary properties. For example, in Olympic, One Silversea, Harbour Green, The Longbeach, etc. are all charging between 9k and 11K per square foot. The new Imperial Cullinan project is expected to start at 20K for their smallest units.

So for the average Joe, even a Joe with very good job, buying property is becoming increasingly impossible. Most people in HK, even ones with good jobs, don't have enough equity to make a 40-50% down payment. The new properties coming on the market are charging crazy high prices, again making it nearly impossible for most people to get into. Then of course, finding something decent for below 6.8M is becoming nearly impossible.

So I feel we're quickly reaching a point where local people in HK can no longer keep the transactions going. Let's not be delusional here and think that those ultra rich Chinese will, cause that's only a small group of people. The vast majority of transactions still needs to come from local HK workingman.

So let's look at that chart again that opened this thread:
Posted Image

Could it be that we're in the "Delusion" phase of the cycle now? You have people asking for ridiculously high prices, often over 20% more than the average bank valuation, and we've reached a point where the buyers are no longer willing to buy at these prices, yet the sellers are not willing to lower their prices.

Still when I read articles in the SCMP and The Standard saying that the property market can be expected to continue a healthy growth for the coming 3-4 years, I wonder of this is the same delusional speak, or whether we're actually just near the end of the "Take Off" stage.

Who dares to comment and share their views on the current situation? My friends are all too chicken to say a damn thing at them moment...

#16 desertorchid

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Posted 23 May 2011 - 01:08 AM

In my workplace in HK practically everyone has cashed out of their property investments (sometimes with profits in excess of 4-5 million HKD). No-one is seriously considering buying and their income would be in the top 1-5% in HK. They're effectively feeling priced out. Hong Kong property cannot continue to rise. The only purchases now are from people trading up/sideways having made a profit on their recent sale. The only possibilty is stable prices/ low sales for a number of years as wages inflate. This, IMO is unlikely to happen and a 20%-30% fall is nigh on certain for the next year+.

#17 surfdude

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Posted 23 May 2011 - 01:41 AM

Congratulations Yellow Tip on booking a very healthy profit.

I agree with desertorchid and believe we are in the mania phase and many people are feeling priced out of the market. Hk property market can be quite fickle and a catalyst could bring a significant correction to the market - which I think would be healthy to the market. I think we are in the greed stage.

#18 YellowTip

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Posted 23 May 2011 - 02:07 AM

In my workplace in HK practically everyone has cashed out of their property investments (sometimes with profits in excess of 4-5 million HKD). No-one is seriously considering buying and their income would be in the top 1-5% in HK. They're effectively feeling priced out. Hong Kong property cannot continue to rise. The only purchases now are from people trading up/sideways having made a profit on their recent sale. The only possibilty is stable prices/ low sales for a number of years as wages inflate. This, IMO is unlikely to happen and a 20%-30% fall is nigh on certain for the next year+.


And here I was thinking something was wrong with me. I too am in that top income segment, and by western standards have a nice amount of equity. Still, I feel like a poor schmuck when looking at properties these days.

The other day I went looking at apartments at the Cullinan (Kowloon Station). A tiny tiny 850 Ft. apartment at a low level without a view is going for 20M. So when I sarcastically asked the agent if I needed to pay down 10M for this place he looked at me with this strange look like, "Dude, you don't have that kinda cash???". Gotta love these property guys :)

As far as trading sideways/up goes, I'm in a position to do that, but I'm just not sure if it would be a clever move. If a correction were to come next year, I'd lose my current profit and probably more.

Guess for now I'll just rent something 'cheap' for a year and see what the market will do. Am Actually looking at some apartments at Le Bleu Deux in Tung Chung. To be honest, I'm a bit apprehensive about moving this far away from Kowloon/HK but people I talk to say Tung Chung actually has a nice and convenient living environment. Anyone here living in TC, I would love to hear your impression of TC and Le Bleu Deux.

#19 YellowTip

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Posted 23 May 2011 - 02:32 AM

Congratulations Yellow Tip on booking a very healthy profit.

I agree with desertorchid and believe we are in the mania phase and many people are feeling priced out of the market. Hk property market can be quite fickle and a catalyst could bring a significant correction to the market - which I think would be healthy to the market. I think we are in the greed stage.


Thanks surfdude. You might be right about the Greed phase. I sure was greedy when I put my property on the market :rolleyes: I set a price that was substantially above market price, expecting the property to just sit there for a while. Even the HKProperty agent was telling me that the price was too high and that at this level he would likely not be able to find any buyers. Make a short story even shorter, I sold the property 2 days later at slightly below my asking price.

It sold so fast that I was actually asking myself if I should have priced it even higher... :huh: ....greed?

What would be typical signs of the Delusion stage?

#20 surfdude

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Posted 23 May 2011 - 07:14 AM

What would be typical signs of the Delusion stage?

That we believe that there is still a lot of life in the property market and buy back in at these levels...




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