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Posted 03 October 2010 - 03:08 AM
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Posted 21 December 2016 - 03:49 AM
LONG LONG CYCLE Revisited - in Makati, PH Property prices
Original chart from Makati Prime "gateway page"
I am going to take another look at the Long cycle, incorporating this information:
Severe 1984-85 Economic Crisis
"Marcos bought the Philippine elite's support at that time by giving them the means not only to survive the severe 1984-1985 economic crisis but to grow richer."
"The economic conflagration was the worst ever in our history, part of the global debt crisis triggered by the Mexican default on its foreign loans in March 1982. With the ensuing rise of global interest rates, the Philippines also defaulted on its loans in 1983, which in effect barred the country from receiving any foreign exchange for its exports of goods and services...
As a result, the economy shrank by 20 percent from 1983 to 1985, the deepest such contraction in the post-war period."
"The Philippines elites were protected... through the Marco's regime's so-called "Jobo bills", named after banker Jose B. Fernandez... with unheard of interest rates, which steadily went up as high as 60 percent in mid-1985."
- from today' s Manila Times
Clearly, this will have triggered a crash in Philippines property prices, which are interest rate sensitive.
So we must expected there would be an important LOW in property prices in approx. mid-1985
Notional Cyclical Chart : three repetitions of 18 year notional cycle
Notional 18 year Cycle / Peso per Sqm. estimates
No. : start : Peak : -Low- / Levels : high-- : XXX : end-- :
#1 : 1965 : 1980 : 1985 /
#2 : 1985 : 1998 : 2002 / P ??k : P 98 k : 3-4? : P64K :
#3 : 2002 : 2016 : 2020?/ P 64k : P152k : 2.4X : P120K??
Posted 22 June 2017 - 02:19 AM
THE CYCLE - Philly also shows an 18-year cycle
Driven, in part, by Job losses, and then job creation
Philly's population stopped shrinking about 1998, and job growth has returned after the GFC
> source: https://fred.stlouis.../ATNHPIUS37964Q
New skyscapers are now changing the Philadelphia skyline:
"Of the top 20 tallest buildings in Philadelphia, only 7 were built before 1986, and of the top ten, ALL of them were built after 1986.
By contrast, in booming Houston, all but 3 of its 20 tallest buildings were built before 1986.
In Dallas, only 5 of the 20 tallest buildings were built in 1986 or after, with just one of them built after 1988.
... Philly re-invented itself. No longer a manufacturing city it is now a world class city for "Eds/Meds/Tourism/Culture"
> SSC-#1403: http://www.skyscrape...1659356&page=71
That's Comcast's new Technology Center, which has been said to be set to do* some "bird flipping" to those who once knocked the city.
The other new factor is how skyscrapers have crossed the river and are now going up on the West bank,
the area (of UPenn and Drexel) called University City
*Not quite finished yet: http://www.skyscrape...1659356&page=70
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