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18 Year property cycle - using it as a Timing tool


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From an Investors Chronicile article:

This is an intelligent article, and I want to know more about the writer:

dominic.jpg

Dominic Picarda, Associate Editor

Investors Chronicle Dominic Picarda has written for Investors Chronicle for seven years and became Associate Editor in 2006. As well as editing the IC’s trading section, his recommendations also appear in the weekend edition of the Financial Times. He holds both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician qualifications.

 

(he made a good call on property last year):

The Market Programme - 5th October 2007

http://podcastgen.streamuk.com/

With some banking stocks now trading at less than net asset value, we ask if Investment Trusts, which have traditionally traded at a discount, are now worth considering.

Dominic Picarda gives us his Market View on the FTSE 350 real estate sector, and looks at the future of the property market.

 

Quite a : Good Slide show presentation by Mr. Picarda

 

CRASHES since 1945 =========

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Real price falls

Post-war.............. - 72 months -24.3 %

Early-mid 1970s... - 45 months -32.1 %

Late 70s-early 80s - 30 months -17.0 %

Late 80s-mid 90s.. - 80 months -37.4 %

2007-current.......... - 9 months -11.0 %

Source: Nationwide, Investors Chronicle

 

What would have been even more interesting to see would be:

What percentage of the real price increase from the prior uphase got retraced

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I have just been referred to this topic. To judge from the comments, nobody seems to be aware of the background to Harrison's work, which is that the banking system and the land market interact to produce cycles which are about 18 years. There is a huge body of theory behind what Harrison has written. The underlying value of land is its rental. Capital values are derived from them, based on interest rates, expectations etc. The purchase of real estate is the purchase of an income stream. Selling prices are the capitalisation of those rental streams.

 

If rental returns are very much lower, as a percentage of selling prices, than returns from other investments such as bank deposits, then a crash is on its way. Rental values are relatively stable, they more or less keep up with inflation. So anyone wishing to see if a crash is on its way need only compare the yields with the general level of interest rates.

 

As for the future, that is not predicable either as much depends on how governments choose to respond. Inflation will lead to increased money values but whether that happens is a decision of goverment. In general, expect inflation to follow two years after a government has allowed extra money to be pushed into the system.

 

In the UK, house selling prices in 2007 were much too high in relation to the rents that could be obtained by leasing the properties. This "froth value" is as real as the froth on tulip prices in the 17th century. When the property market is caught up in boom-bust, the effect is infinitely more serious because the entire banking system and economy is drawn in and suffers when the crash comes.

 

It is futile to expect to be able to time the boom-bust to better than 18 months. The crash point requires a trigger, and triggers do not run to a timetable. If rental yields are too low compared to interest rates, then keep out of the market. There is big money to be gained by playing the property market but long-term it is an unreasonable expectation. It is also a less than zero-sum game and those who get the timing wrong will be punished heavily.

 

I strongly suggest reading the book and coming to grips with the theory. For a brief account, see here Boom to Bust

 

Harrison also proposes solutions so that it would not be worth anyone's while to play this money-for-nothing game. The effect would be to make it more worth while to make money by providing actual goods and services, as people could no longer expect to get rich quick by moving money hither and thither.

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It is futile to expect to be able to time the boom-bust to better than 18 months. The crash point requires a trigger, and triggers do not run to a timetable. If rental yields are too low compared to interest rates, then keep out of the market. There is big money to be gained by playing the property market but long-term it is an unreasonable expectation. It is also a less than zero-sum game and those who get the timing wrong will be punished heavily.

 

I strongly suggest reading the book and coming to grips with the theory. For a brief account, see here Boom to Bust

 

You can fine-tune the timing by using an Index of Builder's share prices, and monitoring it

in relation to the 252d MA. That should give good warning ahead of the turn - it did in 2007 anway.

 

See:

Are the Builders signaling a 2008 UK Property Crash

 

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You can fine-tune the timing by using an Index of Builder's share prices, and monitoring it

in relation to the 252d MA. That should give good warning ahead of the turn - it did in 2007 anway.

 

See:

Are the Builders signaling a 2008 UK Property Crash

 

Interesting, he got it spot on but some people were saying the boom had overshot even in 2006. And Harrison himself predicts 2010, which means either he was referring to a bottoming out, when things have become as bad as they are going to get, or he never intended his projection to be taken with precision but only to illustrate a general trend.

 

Harrison is not original and would not claim to be. He has just applied the principles set out by Henry George in Progress and Poverty, published in 1880, The reliability of his predictions in general terms tends to support the forgotten theories put forward by George. If any politicians and experts are serious about wanting to put an end to these destructive cycles, they would dust off George's theories and act on them. Of course a few people can make money out of other people's misery and stupidity but that does not seem like a proper way to run an economy.

 

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Interesting, he got it spot on but some people were saying the boom had overshot even in 2006. And Harrison himself predicts 2010, which means either he was referring to a bottoming out, when things have become as bad as they are going to get...

 

Combining Harrison's "two year's Winner's Curse" from the August 2005 takeoff,

with my own Builder's bellwether indicator would have nailed the top./

 

I think "2010 Depression", as Harrison has forecast, means he thinks most of the downwards thrust will have happened by then,

not that the correction will be done by then. I think that the final property low will not be seen until 2012/13.

And after that, the next recovery may be modest, for reasons that I have mentioned

 

The problem with testing the George-ist views, is this: how do you track the value of land- it isnt easy.

Hong kong has done a reasonable job of putting his ideas into practice. They can claim some success with it.

But property prices are high, not cheap.

 

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Interesting, he got it spot on but some people were saying the boom had overshot even in 2006. And Harrison himself predicts 2010, which means either he was referring to a bottoming out, when things have become as bad as they are going to get, or he never intended his projection to be taken with precision but only to illustrate a general trend.

 

I think Fred Harrison's predictions are on recession/depression periods throughout history and not on property cycles per se but on economic/land cycles, although he has demonstated an ability to define how and when the phases of the cyle work which culminates in the 'winner curse' in property. In his 1983 book he warns of a recession that will happen in 1992, 18 years after the 1974 one and in Boom Bust he sites 2010 as the next one.

 

His work looking back at over 200 years of economic activity have shown there to be an economic cycle that lasts around 18 years and is driven by the land market although collecting evidence of property cycles in the late 17th century and 18th century would prove difficult. But there is evidence of economic cycles where speculation, bank failures and downturns have all occured at similar points - food riots is another indicator of tough economic conditions or inflation.

 

Harrison also says that the dates are not precise and I think the recession will come a little earleir than 2010 and start next year but last well into 2010. I couldn't get the link to work for your website so I'll put it in again:

 

http://www.landvaluetax.org/who-we-are/who-we-are.html

 

Oh and welcome to GEI

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And DrBubb has now got a link to his YouTube video's on the Land Value Taxation Campaign website:

 

http://www.landvaluetax.org/theory/propert...stors-view.html

 

Fred Harrison's Boom-Bust theories are being used by some investors who still think they can get rich quick by playing the cycle. There is an irony here. Follow the "Read More" link to watch these videos by an investor who is upset at having sold too soon to maximise his profits and missed out on the last years of the boom.

 

Naughty investors using the power of cycles ;)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Great job on producing the videos DrBubb. Your narration gets across the point clearly and concisely.

 

I read Fred Harrison's book in 2005, it is what stopped me buying, just starting on Ricardo's law now.

 

Being a photo man I have noticed the graphics on the video are a bit gnarly. If you would like to email me the images I would be happy to edit them and return better files for you to work with. (PM me for an alternative email address)

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Being a photo man I have noticed the graphics on the video are a bit gnarly. If you would like to email me the images I would be happy to edit them and return better files for you to work with. (PM me for an alternative email address)

 

Thanks, Pixel

I would like to take you up on that, but may need to wait until I return to HK at the end of the week.

I may also redo the narration on parts 1., 2- which is abit less clear perhaps.

 

Anyway thanks for the comments and the offer of help.

 

If anyone else wants to do Property-related Videos, and have a thread here on GEI to discuss them,

that would be very possible, very welcome.

 

Naughty investors using the power of cycles ;)

 

"Fred Harrison's Boom-Bust theories are being used by some investors who still think they can get rich quick by playing the cycle. There is an irony here. Follow the "Read More" link to watch these videos by an investor who is upset at having sold too soon to maximise his profits and missed out on the last years of the boom. "

 

LOL. Sometimes I think the die-hard Georgists would prefer that people use Land cycle ideas

only for tax policy, not for making money. There are many "closet cyclicalists" out there, making big

money in property, or so I reckon.

 

I'm not so upset, since I played the gold cycle instead, and it worked very well for me

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TEN YEAR "SWEET SPOT" - 1997-2006

CFN041.gif

 

(( Bad then (Hong Kong, Japan, Germany?), may mean good now ))

 

Winners Curse?:

"American homeowners may take heart from the experiences of two other once-booming markets: Australia's and Britain's. Both stalled in 2005, yet both have clocked up house-price inflation of around 10% in the past year. However, the effects of recent increases in interest rates in Britain have yet to be seen. And Australia's official index, a weighted average of prices in eight capital cities, was boosted by booms in Perth (up by 36.9% in the year to the fourth quarter) and Darwin (17.6%). Prices in Sydney, the biggest city, fell a bit."

 

Early Warning by late 2005

tools.gif

 

source: http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007_03_01_archive.html

 

...and another...

mortgages.gif

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OBVIOUS EXCESSES - Looking back at them

 

In future, we will need to pay more attention to things like Build costs, and Land prices:

 

alandzg1.gif.uk%20buy%20to%20let.gif.

 

Also above (right) Winners Curse prices rises were driven by the BTL brigade, pushing yields below 4%

 

uk%20salary.png.uk%20mortgage%20to%20income.gif.

 

/see: http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007_03_01_archive.html

 

 

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The above table shows average house prices as being on average 6.1 * salaries in 2005. I heard Vince Cable talking on the radio yesterday and he said that they had reached 9* salary. I suppose this was before the slide began. Is he correct?

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The above table shows average house prices as being on average 6.1 * salaries in 2005. I heard Vince Cable talking on the radio yesterday and he said that they had reached 9* salary. I suppose this was before the slide began. Is he correct?

 

Some banks, some ledning structures perhaps

========

 

USING THE CYCLE IN JAPAN...

 

Investing in Japanese Real Estate: The 15-Year, One-Way Bet

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

May 25, 2006

 

Japan has zero percent interest rates, and one of the highest savings rates in the developed world...

 

If Americans had that… a mountain of savings and zero percent interest rates… I guarantee you, home prices in America would double from their current levels in no time.

 

Yet in Japan, real estate prices have fallen for 15 years straight… That is, until the latest numbers came out, showing the first gain.

 

To me, Japanese real estate is the “no-brainer” investment of the next 15 years. It's a one-way bet. I believe this not because of the low interest rates or high savings rates, I believe it because of the central bank of Japan's “big dilemma.”

 

You see, Japan's central bank was unable to lift the economy out of a 16-year slide. So this time around, I strongly believe the Japanese authorities will do everything possible to prevent prices from falling… Therefore, it's practically a one-way bet.

 

/more: http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2006/ma...real-estate.asp

 

(a chart from 2007):

20070323-chart_a.gif

/source: http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2007/ma...real-estate.asp

 

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Record-breaking falls in house prices have now wiped more than £22,000 off

the value of the average home,

erasing all the past two years of financial gains for homeowners, figures revealed yesterday.

 

Average house prices tumbled by another 1.7 per cent last month, equivalent to more than £3,000, adding to a series of plunges in home values since the spring, Halifax, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, said.

 

This pushed the drop in house prices suffered since the market’s peak to 11 per cent, taking the annual fall into double digits for the first time since the end of the last recession in 1992. Prices have fallen 7.6 per cent since April alone.

 

Despite calls for a cut in interest rates, the Bank of England held them at 5 per cent for the third consecutive month as it pursued its goal of curbing inflation.

 

The price of an average home is now £177,351, just a couple of hundred pounds less than in July 2006, but £22,249 lower than in August last year when prices peaked at £199,600.

 

/more: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle4481608.ece

 

£177,351 : August last year, prices peaked at £199,600 : Both are seasonally adjusted, i believe

 

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CALLING THE BOTTOM

===============

 

Over on GHPC they are talking about how hard it is to Call the Low in property: thread

Citing this article's arguments:

 

I disagreed... my reasons? See page 3, post #41

 

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CALLING THE BOTTOM

===============

 

Over on GHPC they are talking about how hard it is to Call the Low in property: thread

Citing this article's arguments:

 

I disagreed.

 

QUOTE (benmorg @ Aug 10 2008) ==============

what's your system?

 

I'm not convinced calling the bottom is much easier than calling the top, but i can see a couple of reasons why it might be a little easier:

1. housing market troughs tend to be u-shaped, while peaks are much sharper (judging by the graph on HPC)

2. a buyer can make a move on the market much more quickly than a seller (who has to find a buyer)

 

other than that I don't see much reason why timing is any easier in a downturn. Note the false crash that caught a lot of people out in 2004-5 - a lot of people called the bottom then and got it right... only to find that the market is now going to wipe out their gains.

UNQUOTE =========================

 

I cannot guarantee anything, but I can use a variety of tools which have help to identify bottom in the past. (BTW, I intend to monitor them on a "real time" basis on:

http://www.Talk-View.com : and I hope that others will help too. )

 

Here are some things to watch:

 

+ TIME : probably 2011-13, as per:

........... : Harrison called the post-2004/5 Winners' Curse period ahead of time

+ PRICE : The cost of Buying should be below Renting: Yields above Mortgage Rates

+ Comparable#1: US prices should have turned higher, about 12 months prior

+ Comparable#2: UK Builder share prices should have bottomed, about 6-12 months before

 

+ SENTIMENT : at the actual low, very few will want to buy.

There will be "good reasons" not to buy, which will be known "by everyone", but despite those reasons, the fundamentals will be quietly improving: properties for sale will be falling, and so will the number of foreclosures. Banks will have truly tackled the disaster represented by their Mortgage Loan portfolios.

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VERSION : v.1... UK LAND Prices - Comments welcome !!

==========

(from the Developers & Property investors thread.)

 

Here's my first "official GEI" chart of Long Term Land values / version v.1

This is an estimate of prices embedded in property transactions, per the Halifax NSA index.

 

. . . . . Pounds per thousand hectares - and Build cost (blue) in Pds. per sq.m

landjul08v1ga6.gif

 

The chart is driven by the following assumptions:

 

Build costs were Pds.21.00 psf (Pds.15,000 per 1,050 sf property - 24.7% of Total in Jan.1983,

and were estimated to rise exactly 0.50% per month since then- a very debatable assumption.)

 

GEI's Notional Land Values, (adj. Halifax Prices) - NOTE: figures to be adjusted !!!

-----------------------------

Timing ---- Jan.1995 : Aug.2007 : Jul.2008 Label . change '94toPeak

Aver. House : 61,369 :201,122 :178,440 Halifax -11.2% +609.0%

Average Size :. 1,050 :... 1,050 :... 1,050 sf

Per Sq.Ft. : ... 58.45 : ... 191.51 : ... 169.94

Build Cost : ... 43.07 : ..... 91.46 : ..... 96.61 6.93% 150.49%

Build Cost : ... 463.6 : ..... 984.4 : ..... 1,040 / per sq.m.

Land, Cost : .. 15.38 : ... 100.05 : ... 73.33

Pct. Total : .... 26.3% : ... 52.2% : ... 43.1%

L.below Hse. :.. 92.9 : ..... 92.9 : ..... 92.9 sm

Plot Ratio :........ 0.95 :....... 0.95 :....... 0.95

Land Size : ... 97.79 : ... 97.79 : ... 97.79 sm

Land, Cost : .. 15,381 : 100,051 : 73,330 Overall

Land Val. 1 : .. 570.8 : ... 1,023.1 : ... 749.9 /sq m -26.71% 376.8%

Land Value: 5,707.9 : 10,231.1 :. 7,498.8 /hectare

 

*Note:

I may need to pushed up Build costs, so now my spreadsheet shows a gain in Land prices of 5.51 times

to the peak, versus about 6x in the other chart of Land prices

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  • 2 weeks later...

(On the CYCLE in Hong Kong):

 

QUOTE

Dr. Bubb, thanks for your help - you seem to be very clued in on the property market unlike me. Do you think now is the right time to buy or do you reckon I should hold on until the new year? I am being told different things by different people and am totally confused now!

 

Jeff, what phase is your flat in and what is your asking price?

UNQUOTE

 

We are at- or coming to- a confusing point in the 18 year cycle, thanks to the SARS disturbance.

 

See Video:

 

Summary:

7 years up, a mild correction, then another 7 years up to a big peak. Then a 4 year "crash."

 

The important cyclical bottom "should" have come in 2001, and if it had, we should be getting a slowdown of several months from 2008 into 2009. And that may be exactly were we are now- in the midst of a multi-month slowdown. Personally, I had thought we would not see the slowdown yet, only see a brief pause, which would end in Q3, before the market surges to fresh highs, and then the classic slowdown would come AFTER the surge. Perhaps the slowdown would last into 2010, in my way of thinking after a higher hign in 2009.

 

I expected that because the 2001 low did not hold. Thanks to SARS, we saw a lower low in 2003. So now, we are only 5 years off that low.

 

I dont think we saw an important peak in early 2008, because we do not have the classic signs of a cyclical peak:

 

+ Affordability is not stretched,

+ Banks have remained prudent, sticking to tradtitional 60-70% maximum Loan-To-Value,

+ The number of new completions is low- about 10,000 or less, which is les than half the average

of the past decade

+ There was modest speculation, not rampant speculation

+ Memories of the 1997-2003 crash are still too fresh to allow investors and banks to become reckless enough to engage in a full-blown speculative boom (as we see at important peaks)

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One of the regular posters on this website ....

is worried that I may be in Denial about HK Property- here's the exchange:

 

(quote name / Steve Netwriter / Aug 27 2008)

QUOTE

The only housing market I've been watching in very great detail is the NZ one.

I think the very first sign of the bull market ending was when the number of properties for sale increased.

...I think the above is a warning signal if it occurs.

It took from about July 2007 (when the housing stock started rising) to say Feb 2008 for prices to start reflecting the change in sentiment.

UNQUOTE

 

Yes. Buying has dried up in HK Property.

But at the same time, there are very few NEW properties for sale, and the speculative excess is being

worked off in recent weeks. Important to me, is the fact that the banks that got burned in the 1997-2003 meltdown,

have been prudent and conservative in their lending. These are hugely important differences with the US and UK,

I dont know about NZ.

 

I am hanging my hat on those differences, because they help confirm that we are at the wrong

point in the cycle, to have an 18 year cyclical peak- that was 11 years ago- in 1997. I reckon we are now seeing

the mid-cycle correction.

 

Finally, the Chinese stock market (presented by FXI) seems to have checked in to a GIP ... update

aa0iy3.gif

 

... and China stocks could be set to move higher from here- maybe even back to last October's record levels.

No guarantees, of course.

 

/see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....=920&st=260

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I think my "gentle probing" was far from an accusation of denial :lol:

 

That would have involved the posting of this:

 

In_De_Nile2.jpg

 

 

I have to admit, this is the first time I've found the time to read this thread. And only because I happened to see one of your podcasts on YouTube !

I've now watched 4x. I think the Harrison cycles set makes quite a good primer for anyone wanting to understand cycles.

It's certainly easier looking at charts and listening to someone than ploughing through masses of text.

 

Having read rapidly through this thread, the one thing that surprised me was this:

 

alandzg1.gif

 

I had no idea land prices had gone up that much :blink:

 

Actually, thinking about it, what exactly does that mean ?

Have you got prices per hectare ?

 

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I think this was only added 3 weeks ago, so it's possible it's not been seen on here before:

 

The Renegade Economist

http://www.youtube.com/renegadeeconomist

 

Introduction to The Renegade Economist Channel - An introduction by Fred Harrison - The Renegade Economist.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEyajN3rms0

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

+ I used my Paint program to excerpt the specific part of the Slide

And Voila:

 

18yrcycletc5.jpg

compare: 1976-1994 Cycle in the UK

18yrcycle76zd9.jpg

 

18yrcycle94mi7.jpg

from :

homepageol5.png

 

(I think you can see how useless and silly that HPC "trend line" is in forecasting a cyclical market.

I have been saying this for years. And was tallking about a possible 2010 low almsot 5 years ago.

Since late 2005, I changed that Low forecast to 2010-13, and I think Fred Harrison is now talking

about 2012.)

 

BTW, for those who liked the YouTube video, I would appreciate it if you could post a text comment there.

Link:

Since that will help to build interest in the Video, and also maybe traffic here.

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  • 4 months later...

(Berkeley's Pidgley is said to use Harrison's cycle - he's laughing now):

 

'Old fashioned' builder who resisted lure of borrowing

David Teather The Guardian, Thursday 29 January 2009

 

Tony Pidgley, the Berkeley Group boss, was raised by Travellers and left school barely able to read or write. That has not stopped him outsmarting his better-educated rivals and their well-heeled bankers.

 

Pidgley swears by his "old-fashioned" values, and he resisted the lure of borrowing heavily to expand his company during the good times, and kept his balance sheet debt-free.

 

As a result, Berkeley, valued at £938m, now has the largest market capitalisation of any of the homebuilders. Taylor Wimpey was valued at £5bn when it was created less than two years ago, but is now labouring under heavy debt, and is valued at just £162m.

 

In an interview with the Guardian just as Northern Rock was running into trouble, and the housing market was beginning to slide, Pidgley was sitting with £100m cash in the bank. He was, he said, an "old dinosaur" who had come in for flak for not gearing up his balance sheet. He couldn't resist a smile.

 

"We can sit and run our business. If we go through a bit of a bad time, we'll have a little bit less profit. That ain't quite the end of the world," he said.

 

In its most recent results, Berkeley defied the credit crunch to increase its revenues for the six months to October by £11.2m to £452.6m. Profits of £80m were only slightly lower than the previous year.

 

The cash pile has grown to £138m, putting Berkeley in a strong position to take opportunities in a distressed market.

 

/more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/ja...-berkeley-group

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  • 1 month later...

I will probably move the Call BACK by one week.

(next Friday or Saturday's) GEI Conference

Call will focus on UK Property

003ec.png

Join us, if you are interested. Last Call can be heard here.

 

TIMELY?

Housebuilding guru says bottom of the property market has been reached

 

By Mark Leftly / Sunday, 15 March 2009

 

Tony Pidgley, the great sage of the housebuilding industry, has called the bottom of the market.

 

 

Mr Pidgley, who made a fortune and his reputation for calling the 1990s housing crash correctly, told The Independent on Sunday: "We all accept that, give or take 5 per cent, the market is somewhere along the bottom [of its economic cycle]."

 

The chief executive at Berkeley Group, one of the few cash-rich housebuilders, added that there would be between 35,000 and 50,000 construction starts on new homes in 2009. He said 40,000 was most likely, meaning government ambitions to complete up to 240,000 new homes a year would not be fulfilled.

 

In its last interim results, Berkeley had a pre-tax profit of £79.6m, 12.1 per cent down on the same six months in 2007 – a good result, given the sharp downturn in housing

 

/see: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ed-1645222.html

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I will probably move the Call BACK by one week.

 

 

TIMELY?

Housebuilding guru says bottom of the property market has been reached

 

By Mark Leftly / Sunday, 15 March 2009

 

Tony Pidgley, the great sage of the housebuilding industry, has called the bottom of the market.

hmm

 

one of the few with a vested interest worth listening to

 

still cant see where the money is coming from - deposits needed, people realising property doesnt always go up, job losses juts getting started - still at least 2 years from bottom methinks - unless quantative easing starts reaching wages

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