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DrBubb's Diary - Apr. 2017 Trading - v.99


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#81 DrBubb

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 12:59 PM

TOP of Page Header

 

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_russell_en_2.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au

 

Bitcoin  :  The uptrend continues as money flees China:
=======
Charts: Bitcoins LIVE : BTC:1-year : 4-mos : 10d : Ticks : BtcWisdom : BTC-24hours : PB : aD : aF : aG : sjw :
 
chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader
 
BTS - Frozen / Bitcoins, on Bitstamps ; 10-Days: http://tinyurl.com/bts-10d : 6-mos : 12-mos : 24-mos : 32-MOS

 

Over a week ago, I said: "Bitcoins Price may take another run at the Gold price - Now $1230"

 

BTC - 10d : 2mos : 32-months: Bitcoins : $1253 (98.1% of Gold)

BTC-5mo_zpszl3tby90.png

 

I think both will drop, before heading higher.

The fundamental reason may be: Rising interest rates / Falling bond prices :

TMF at $19.86 "and falling" as LT rates rise

The rise in TMF (3x Bull-on-Bonds) may be over ... 2yr : 10d-chart :

 

Rising interest rates, may turnaround the falling dollar, and "put the Kabash" on the rise in Gold and Bitcoins

These prices move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.

And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle:

 

TMF -etc. ... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d :

TMF-etc3_zpstrspmtlw.gif

===

(In edit: TOUCHED ! about 9pm HK time)

BTX: High $1270  / Gold: Low $1266 : 1.003X !


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#82 DrBubb

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 11:24 PM

I think the 4-6 months cycle has rolled over

 

au0365nyb.gif

 

-------- delay: 6 months-------> au0365nyb.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#83 DrBubb

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Posted 26 April 2017 - 01:26 AM

Tucker to advocate: Do illegals have a right to be here?

Published on Apr 25, 2017

California judge on blocks President Trump's executive order seeking to withhold federal funds from sanctuary cities. Tucker asks one sanctuary advocate whether illegals have a constitutional right to be here #Tucker

 

Comment:

"What we stand for..." Some Leftist judge ignores the Constitution and tells us what HE thinks that should be. Time to sweep these traitors away! Legally, of course. If the Law allows, Federal troops can be sent in and put an end to this illegality. If a few judges get locked up, for breaking the law, so be it.

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#84 DrBubb

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Posted 26 April 2017 - 02:25 AM

Silver is rolling over, headed towards $16 or less*, within 2-3 months (if the cycle works)

 

*I think SLV could bottom just below $15 in about 6-8 weeks

 

SLV / Silver etf - trades at about XX% of Silver

 

SLV charts: All-data : 5-yrs2-yrs : 6-mo : 10d // Futures : Weekly : Daily

 / Last: $16.68 - 4/25/2017 : old chart :

SLV-all_zpsjvzstobo.gif

 

SLV vs SLW (Silver Wheaton) ... update - Cycle bottoms when SLW gets relatively cheap

SLV-vsSLW_zpsoi57vgdy.gif

 

SLV -to- Gold Ratio - a narrowing may signal a Low

SLV-toGLD_zps4f4sg1ee.png


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#85 DrBubb

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Posted 26 April 2017 - 02:49 AM

The Deep State (& its Black Budget) seem to be behind the manipulation of Trump

 

"It seems like Keystone Cops are doing WW3... Nothing makes any sense"

 

Jeff Rense & Catherine Austin Fitts - Is Blazing Nuclear War Imminent?

 

"This smacks of Cheney and the yellow cake ploy bring the US to war with Iraq"

JR :  What are they keeping below the table... I'm not seeing it

 

CAF : There are trillions missing (and they want more)


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#86 DrBubb

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Posted 27 April 2017 - 09:05 AM

Major revelations, concerning the control structure

 

Top 5 Points - a nice (short) summary

 

8,500 People control the world... and "you need a mind like a freezer"

 

5 things an elite banking Dutch Whistleblower tells us #NWO

 

3 : The Terrorists and intelligence agencies are working together to control world events

 

2 : The Luciferians at the top, really do believe in Lucifer as a deity

 

1 : The breaking point for him was when he was asked to participate in Abuse of Children

 

Then, he could no longer perform his job effectively, and he started to refuse assignments.

These acts "put everyone in their pocket.. they are susceptible to blackmail."

==

> CMJ's thread: http://www.greenener...showtopic=21422


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#87 DrBubb

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Posted 27 April 2017 - 04:15 PM

GBP : 8 Year Cycle - the end of the drop?

GBP_zpsg7wnnzhe.gif

 

It is at the top of a downchannel, so maybe we will know soon

 

Dominic Frisby spoke of it, right near last year's low

 

Comedian & Author Dominic Frisby On Why Brexit Is Great For Business and For UK Independence


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#88 DrBubb

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Posted 27 April 2017 - 11:37 PM

10 Day charts

 

FXE / Euro Etf

xx

 

EUR-inUsd / same ma's as above

 : adjusted ma's :

EUR2_zpsambdpqc1.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#89 DrBubb

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 04:37 AM

GCM "survives" the consolidation - as shares trade 9% higher

 

"...on 4/27/2017 - GCM had an enterprize value of 134,000 oz., that's less that one year of its gold production"

 

GCM.t : Last: $1.55 + 0.125 : +8.77% / after 1:15 consolidation

.10-yrs : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 12mos : 6-mos / 10-d / U-1%: V-6%: Previous: C$0.095 at 4/26/2017 x15= C1.425

GCM_zpsfdg5qvkb.gif

 

Debs : Int. : CvShs : x$1.55: *0.733: adj.* : Last : Prem.: maturity: time x Coupon : Total: adjPrem.
2018 : 1% : 513 shs : C$ 795= $583 : $662 : 65.0: -1.81%: 11Aug18 : 1+3mos : $12.5 : $683 : -4.84% :
2020 : 6% : 513 shs : C$ 795= $583 : $583 : 80.5: +38.1%: 02Jan20 : 2+7mos : $155. : $738 : +9.08% :
====
*Maturity value = $190 + 415.5 shs (x$1.55x0.733) = $190 + $xxx = US$662
 

 

Gran Colombia Gold Announces Trading of Its Common Shares on a Post-Consolidated Basis

Will Commence at Market Open on April 27, 2017

 
April 25, 2017

TORONTO, ON --(Marketwired - April 25, 2017) - Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM) announced today that the consolidation of the Corporation's issued and outstanding common shares on a one post-consolidation share for every fifteen pre-consolidation shares (1:15) basis has been made effective and the common shares will commence trading on a post-consolidated basis on the Toronto Stock Exchange at market open on Thursday, April 27, 2017. The Company's name and trading symbols will remain unchanged.

 

As a result of the share consolidation, there are now approximately 20,450,401 common shares issued and outstanding on a post-consolidated basis, subject to rounding for fractional shares as no fractional shares will be issued. The number of post-consolidated common shares to be received will be rounded up to the nearest whole number for fractions of 0.5 or greater or rounded down to the nearest whole number for fractions of less than 0.5. The number of common shares on a post-consolidated basis underlying the issued and outstanding warrants of the Company and the exercise price thereof will be adjusted in accordance with the applicable warrant certificate and indenture. Similarly, the conversion prices of the Company's Senior Unsecured Convertible Debentures due 2018 (the "2018 Debentures") and Senior Secured Convertible Debentures due 2020 (the "2020 Debentures") will also be adjusted in accordance with the applicable indenture.

 

The following table summarizes the Company's capital structure following the share consolidation:

 

Security Issued and Outstanding Following the Share Consolidation

 

Common Shares (TSX: GCM) : 20,450,401 (subject to rounding for fractional shares)

 

2018 Debentures (TSX: GCM.DB.U) US$45,970,216 principal amount convertible at a conversion price of US$1.95 into approximately 23,574,470 common shares, representing a conversion rate of approximately 513 common shares for each US$1,000 principal amount of 2018

 

Debentures 2020 Debentures (TSX: GCM.DB.V) US$100,710,085 principal amount convertible at a conversion price of US$1.95 into approximately 51,646,197 common shares, representing a conversion rate of approximately 513 common shares for each US$1,000 principal amount of 2020 Debentures

 

Stock Options 1,931,333 Stock Options at an exercise price of $2.55 per common share expiring in 2021 and 2022 47,000 Stock Options at an exercise price of $27.60 per common share expiring in 2019

===========

 

Date------ : GCM.t  : 7,692 : CAD$ : NotVal : 1% Deb. vol. : Db.O/S-  Date : 6%Deb: Db.O/S-  Date : TotDebt : Shs-OS : MktValue : Ent.Val. : Gold :  OZ's
06/30/16 : $0.100 : 0,769 : 0.773 : 59.44 : $55.00. --------- : $67.7- 06/30 : $65.00 : 103.3 - 05/12 : $171.0 : 157.8m*: C$15.8M: $183.2M/ 1325= 138.3k
09/30/16 : $0.120 : 0,923 : 0.762 : 70.33 : $72.50, 154.0k : $49.8- 09/06 : $91.00 : 102.5 - 09/06 : $152.3 : 277.6m*: C$33.3M: $177.7M/ 1317= 134.9k
12/30/16 : $0.095 : 0,731 : 0.744 : 54.39 : $61.00, 20.00k : $49.7- 12/06 : $84.00 : 101.2 - 12/06 : $150.9 : 277.6m*: C$26.4M: $170.5M/ 1152= 148.1k

02/10/17 : $0.110 : 0,846 : 0.764 : 64.63 : $61.00, 625.0k : $49.7- 12/06 : $81.00 : 101.2 - 12/06 : $150.9 : 277.6m*: C$30.5M: $174.2M/ 1236= 140.9k

======

04/26/17 : $0.095 : 0,731 : 0.733 : 53.82 :
Date------ : GCM.t : 513sh : CAD$ : NotVal : 1% Deb. vol. : Db.O/S-  Date : 6%Deb: Db.O/S-  Date : TotDebt : Shs-OS : MktValue : Ent.Val. : Gold :  OZ's

04/27/17 : $1.550 : 0,795 : 0.733 : 58.28 : $61.00, 78.00k: $45.97-04/28 : $80.50 : 100.7 - 04/28 : $146.7 : 20.45m*: C$31.7M: $169.9M/ 1266= 134.2k
===

> GCM thread : http://www.greenener...showtopic=20537


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#90 DrBubb

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 04:45 AM

Gold falling

 

Rising interest rates, may turnaround the falling dollar, and "put the Kabash" on the rise in Gold and Bitcoins

These prices move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.

And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle:

 

TMF -etc. ... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d :

TMF-etc3_zpstrspmtlw.gif

===

(In edit: TOUCHED ! about 9pm HK time)

BTX: High $1270  / Gold: Low $1266 : 1.003X !

BTX: still rising:

xx

 

=== ===

KITCO Articles

 

=== 

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#91 DrBubb

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 01:57 PM

200 Million views ... with multiple messages "in plain sight"

.

Katy Perry - Chained To The Rhythm (Official) ft. Skip Marley

 

"Taking over from Madonna as the new Queen of the Illuminati"

As she transports people to Oblivia

 

Jeff Rense & Tim Rifat - Hidden Meanings And Messages In Katy Perry's 'Chained To The Rhythm'

 

Published on Apr 26, 2017

Link To Download PDF (16.5 megs)http://www.rense.com...PerryChained...


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#92 DrBubb

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Posted 29 April 2017 - 05:17 AM

Gentrification in Philadelphia?
Baltimore-Ave-West-70pct_zpsrbp9fouu.jpg

 

> Cedar park / new thread:

http://www.greenener...showtopic=21427


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#93 DrBubb

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Posted 29 April 2017 - 10:20 AM

NEW DATA --

 

Price : (06/26) (12/31) (04/01) Chg %: (07/01) : (09/30) : (12/30) / (01/27)  (02/24) (03/31) : (04/07) (04/14) : (04/21) : (04/28)
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2  === >: 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1251.2 : 1257.3 : 1288.5 : 1289.1 : 1268.3 :
GLD : 112.56 : 101.46 : 116.93  ----- z : 128.41 : 125.64 : 109.61 / 113.49 : 119.70 : 118.72 : 119.46 : 122.60 : 122.31 : 120.77 :
GDX : $18.09 : $13.72 : $20.12 ----- z : $29.05 : $26.43 : $20.95 / $23.22 : $24.13 : $22.81 : $23.50 : $24.54 : $23.61 : $22.23 :
Ratio: R6.222: R7.395 : R5.811 ----- z : R4.420 : R4.754 : r5.232 / R4.888 : r4.961 : R5.205 : r5.083 : R4.996 : r5.180 : r5.433 : (/10.?4)
Ratio 16.07%: 13.52%: 17.21% ----- z : 22.62%: 21.04%: 19.11%/ 20.45% 20.16%: 19.21%: 19.67%: 20.02%: 19.30%: 18.41% (GDx57.1 )
Gdxj : $24.86 : $19.21 : $28.40: ----- z: $45.38 : $44.29 : $31.55 / $36.87 : $40.09 : $35.98 : $36.56 : $36.70 : $34.54 : $32.23 : 
Spdr : 706. E : 642.37 : 815.est ----- z : 953.91 : 947.95 : 822.17 / 803.0E : 841.17 : 834.EE : 836.49 : 848.92 : 848.92 : 853.26 = 27.44m
Au/S : R-1.66 : R-1.65 : R- 1.52 ----- z :  R-1.41 : R-1.39 : r1.401 / R1.48E: R1.496 : R1.50E : R1.503 : R1.52 : R1.519 : R1.486
TLT - : 115.23 : 120.58 : 130.68 ----- z : 140.57 : 137.51 : 119.13 / 119.63 : 122.01 : 120.71 : 120.71 : 123.47 : 123.54 : 122.35 :
G/Tlt : R10.19 : r8.795 : R9.404 ----- z : R9.567: R9.578 : R9.668/ R9.993 : R10.26: R10.37 : R10.42 : R10.44 : R10.43 : R10.366 vs L: 8.65
====
AGS : Y3,409 : y3,210 : y3,367 -----  z : y4,157 : y4,209 : y3,988 / y3,943 : y4,167 : y4,124 : y4,199 : y4,212 : y4,134 : y4,--- 17.26:
SLV- : $15.11 : $13.19 : $14.34 -----  z : $18.74 : $18.20 : $15.11 / $16.22 : $17.40 : $17.25 : $17.03 : $17.53 : $17.02 : $16.30 :
SLW-: $15.11 : $12.42 : $16.40 -----  z: $24.78 : $27.30 : $19.32 / $21.42 : $21.15 : $20.84 : $20.94 : $21.84 : $21.09 : $19.97 :
SIL*- : $26.43 : $18.51 : $26.50 ----- z : $45.95 : $44.48 : $32.11 / $37.36 : $38.28 : $36.02 : $36.92 : $38.09 : $35.93 : $34.90 :
DBA : $22.71 : $20.61 : $20.50 -----  z : $21.98 : $19.98 : $19.97 / $20.57 : $20.29 : $19.78 : $19.58 : $19.70 : $19.29 : $19.74 :
XLE- : $76.08 : $60.32 : $61.06 -----  z : $68.60 : $70.61 : $75.32 / $74.23 : $70.99 : $69.90 : $70.36 : $69.31 : $67.79 : $67.84 :
Cop'r: $2.641 : $2.135 : $2.170 -----  z : $2.220 : $2.210 : $2.510 / $2.690 : $2.700 : $2.652 : $2.647 : $2.570 : $2.540 : $2.610 :
WTI- : $59.65 : $37.07 : $36.36 -----  z : $49.28 : $48.24 : $53.72 / $53.17 : $53.99 : $50.30 : $52.24 : $53.18 : $49.62 : $49.33 :
CRB : 224.90 : 176.27 : 168.03 -----  z : 194.26 : 186.30 : 192.51 / 193.43 : 190.93 : 185.88 : 187.11 : 187.77 : 181.87 : 181.73 :
Corn : 385.00: 358.00 : 353.50 -----  z : 360.25 : 336.30 : 352.00 / 362.50 : 370.75 : 364.40 : 359.50 : 371.00 : 363.75 : 366.50 :
Wheat 575.00: 468.50 : 474.00 -----  z : 496.25 : 402.00 : 408.00 / 420.50 : 448.00 : 426.50 : 424.00 : 429.75 : 421.00 : 432.25 :
Sugar 11.92c : 15.24c : 15.18C -----  z : 20.78C : 23.00c : 19.51c / 20.33c : 19.81c : 16.76c : 16.77c : 16.70c : 16.41c : 16.13c :
BTC : 250.00 : $433.5 : $420.0 -----  z : $680.0 : $604.5 : $948.5 / $920.0 : 1135.0 : 1041.1 : 1188.7 : 1170.0 : 1245.5 : 1315.0 :
B/G.: 21.30% : 40.88%: 34.34% ----- z: 50.56%: 45.90%: 82.36%/ 77.42%: 84.81%: 83.20%: 94.54%: 90.80%: 96.62%: 103.7%:
=====
EEM- : $39.93 : $32.19 : $34.15 ----- z : $34.69 : $37.45 : $35.01 / $37.47 : $38.48 : $39.39 : $39.37 : $39.14 : $39.29 : $40.06 :
FXI -- : $46.21 : $35.29 : $33.58 -----  z : $34.48 : $38.01 : $34.71 / $36.82 : $38.54 : $38.49 : $38.74 : $38.26 : $37.96 : $38.53 :
ShCm : 4192.9: 3519.2 : 3009.5 -----  z : 2932.5 : 3004.7 : 3103.6 / 3159.2 : 3253.4 : 3222.5 : 3286.6 : 3207.8 : 3126.8 : 3154.7 :
PHM- : $20.48 : $17.82 : $18.42 -----  z: $19.48 : $20.04 : $18.38 / $21.26 : $21.73 : $23.55 : $23.28 : $23.71 : $23.32 : $22.67 :
IYR -- : $72.49 : $75.08 : $77.91 -----  z : $82.33 : $80.64 : $76.94/ $76.97 : $80.31 : $78.49 : $79.14 : $79.79 : $80.58 : $78.93 :
IWM - : 127.50 : 112.62 : 111.12 -----  z : 115.39 : 124.21 : 134.85 / 136.19 : 138.65 : 137.48 : 135.52 : 133.72 : 137.21 : 139.06 :
XLF - : $24.89 : $23.82 : $22.70 -----  z : $22.74 : $19.30 : $23.25 / $23.65 : $24.42 : $23.73 : $23.52 : $22.90 : $23.16 : $23.53 :
XLF/S: 11.86%: 11.68% 10.97% -----  z : 10.83% V8.92% :10.31% / 10.33%: 10.31%: 10.47%: 10.00%: 9.849% : 9.87% : 9.883%
SPY- : 209.82 : 203.87 : 206.92: -----  z : 209.92 : 216.30 : 223.53 / 228.97 : 236.74 : 235.74 : 235.20 : 232.51 : 234.59 : 238.08 :
VIX-- : 14.02%: 18.21% 13.10%: -----  z :14.77%: 13.29%: 14.04% / 10.58%: 11.47% 10.96%: 12.87% : 15.96%: 14.63%: 10.82%
ShPut  $06.15 : $6.670: $05.00:  -----  z : $02.85 : /Sp210: $08.30 / $20.00 : $14.95 : $13.15 : $13.52 : $16.10 : $13.49 : $11.45 Ja$240p
DXY - : 95.399 : 98.693 : 94.608 -----  z : 95.720 : $95.42 : 102.38 / 100.56 : $99.77 : 100.22 : 101.13 : 100.46 : $99.75 : $99.04 :
H-gold: r12.30 : R10.75 : r12.93 -----  z : R14.05: R13.80 : R11.25 / R11.82: R12.26: R12.56 : R12.37 : R12.83 : R12.92 : R12.81 / 11.3-14.2
=====
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2  === >: 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1251.2 : 1257.3 : 1288.5 : 1289.1 : 1268.3 :
 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#94 DrBubb

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Posted 29 April 2017 - 07:32 PM

First direct London-China train completes 7,500 mile route...

 

BEIJING (AFP) - 

The first freight train to link China directly to the UK arrived in the eastern Chinese city of Yiwu Saturday after covering over 12,000-kilometres (7,500 miles), making it the second-longest route in the world.

The journey is the latest effort in China's drive to strengthen trade links with western Europe along a modern-day "Silk Road" route.

The world's top trading nation launched the "One Belt, One Road" strategy in 2013, and has since poured millions into constructing vast infrastructure links.

The train -- loaded with whisky, baby milk, pharmaceuticals and machinery -- departed London on April 10 and passed through France, Belgium, Germany, Poland, Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan during its 20-day trip before arriving in Yiwu in eastern Zhejiang province, a major wholesale centre for small consumer goods.

The new route is longer than Russia's famous Trans-Siberian railway, but about 1000 kilometres shorter than the record-holding China-Madrid link, which opened in 2014.

London is the 15th city to be linked to a new freight network offered by the state-run China Railway Corporation, which says its services are cheaper than air transport and quicker than shipping.

The journey should be 30 days faster than moving the goods by ship...


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#95 DrBubb

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Posted 29 April 2017 - 10:45 PM

Bitcoin is threatening to break to new highs above $1350

 

BTS  : b5  BTC-1 mo 5d:

 

BTC-1mo_zps2u3igj1g.png


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#96 DrBubb

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Posted 30 April 2017 - 11:59 PM

Clif High MAY report came out early

 

REALIST NEWS - May 2017 Clif High's ALTA (Web Bot) Report Summary

 

(A second summary gets to the interesting stuff more quickly)

 

May 2017 Web Bot Predicts Le Pen Victory?, Precious Metals Breakout and "Crypto Scam of 2017".


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#97 DrBubb

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 01:33 AM

Singapore Housing Index
'14 > http://www.tradingec...e/housing-index
Q3 : 149.7
Q4 : 148.6
'15 : 147.0
Q2 : 145.5
Q3 : 144.2
Q4 : 142.3
'16 : 141.6
Q2 : 140.6
Q3 : 140.0
Q4 : 137.9
'17 : 137.2
Q2 : 136.7 : that's 11.5% below a 154.5 peak *estimated 2013, 1st Half
---

 

SRX Property Index : a premature low? maybe not

- a second index shows a bounce after almost 4 years drifting lower
SG-property_zpsh9dyx3qi.png

 

> update : https://www.srx.com.sg/price-index

 

The SRX index got down to the mid-point in the channel, and is now bouncing.

The 18 year cycle is generally 14 years up, followed by 3-5 years down, so it is not impossible to see a bottom in 2017, after 4 years of decline.

But I reckon this cycle may take longer than 4 years, as the last one did. Especially since the up phase was terminated at 11-12 years by the government imposing taxes.

18 years from the last low (2003-4) might mean a low as late as 2020-22.

 

Meantime,

RENTS in Singapore are drifting lower: https://www.srx.com....5-in-march-2017

The Rent index dropped from 113.1 (3/2016) to 108.7 (3/2017-flash est.) - that's 3.9% lower in 13 mos.

 

If we are seeing a major low now, then I would expect CapitaLand's stock continue to rally from here - Let's see if that happens.

BTW CC now sports a yield of 2.66%, and that's better than the net yield on most SG properties

 

SG:C31
CapitaLand Ltd. (SIN) : All-data : x :

SG-Capita_zpsvqryqvcw.gif

 

CapitaLand is a SG stock to watch.

==

SG Property thread: http://www.greenener...showtopic=19813


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#98 DrBubb

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 10:32 PM

Length of downturns - this was first posted on the Singapore thread

=

 

Haha. Yeah:

"The best time to buy a property is always 5 years ago"

 

Anyone who says something like that is unaware of cycles - which are real and observable - just look at prices over a long enough period.

 

Idiot estate agents will show you a graph going back 10-15 years, showing prices rising over the whole period, and think that this makes a case that prices will go on rising.  When I see that, I have a model in my mind: "14 years up, 4 years down... the last 2-3 years of the up-phase are the most dangerous."

 

So if I see 10-12 years of rising market - worse yet: 14 years! - I will be very wary, and want to wait for the drop. That is my attitude towards Hong Kong and Manila right now.  I would rather buy in a place like Singapore, after a 3-4 year drop.  Even in Singapore, I am somewhat cautious, for reasons that I have described above.

 

"The best time to buy a property is always 5 years ago"

- was definitely not true in Detroit, where in 4-5 years, nearly a decade of gains were wiped out

 

slide05-624x468.jpg

And some houses went down to $100-$1000 in value.

Instead:

"The housing price index in Michigan hit its all time low in 2011. The housing index in Michigan is currently at 139.66, 40 percent higher than its value in 1991. This current index is approximately the same as that from 1997."

> source: http://www.drawingde...index-compared/

 

The US House price drop was widespread, and even San Francisco saw a drop of 72 months (= 6 years)

peak-prices-san-francisco-detroit-2.jpg

- so we cannot expect that the entire drop will always be confined to 3-5 years

=

Once the lows were in place, prices improved dramatically, even in Detroit

 

fredgraph.png?id=DEXRNSA&nsh=1

 

But they are still below the price levels of 10 years earlier

=


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#99 DrBubb

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Posted 02 May 2017 - 12:22 AM

TMF HAS dropped - that's Bonds, Gold, Gold shares, silver...

Approximately 1% per day (!), over 9-10 days

 

TMF-etf ... update

TMT-etc-10d_zps9w5fkrfv.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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