Jump to content


Photo

The UK Property Crash - Has it been avoided, or just delayed?


66 replies to this topic

#61 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 91,143 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 30 June 2011 - 01:31 AM

Perhaps a useful indicator of enthusiasm for property is how widely it features as a topic for podcasts.

I recently searched iTunes for podcasts with the keyword "property" (I chose this term purposely to exclude foreign podcasts using "real estate" as keywords) and found very little has been published recently. So it seems the enthusiasm of old has turned to disinterest at best, though I doubt we are anywhere near the "revulsion" phase.

However, I read with interest today that Kirstie and Phil of Location Location Location fame have just launched an iphone app to help people find and assess property. house hunter app

It's 3.79 or i would have downloaded it. :)

I wonder if they will find much audience through iphone?
Perhaps the average guy using the iphone is more clever than K & P, and would rather not lend their time to rewarding selfish efforts like those of Phil & Kirstie
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#62 tinecu

tinecu

    Tri-Centurion

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 726 posts

Posted 14 September 2016 - 12:36 PM

The slow motion train wreck is underway.

 

http://www.home.co.u...Index_SEP16.pdf



#63 tinecu

tinecu

    Tri-Centurion

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 726 posts

Posted 20 October 2016 - 08:09 AM

http://www.standard....s-a3372911.html

 

Oh dear!

 

 

Foxtons has warned that sales have collapsed by a third in the past three months as the London property market flounders in its post-referendum malaise.



#64 tinecu

tinecu

    Tri-Centurion

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 726 posts

Posted 13 January 2017 - 09:51 AM

http://www.express.c...ice-crash-fears

 

"

SHARES in Foxtons plummeted by nine per cent, after the London estate agent today revealed a heavy hit to profits amid a downturn in the capital's housing market."

#65 tinecu

tinecu

    Tri-Centurion

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 726 posts

Posted 13 January 2017 - 09:55 AM

http://www.home.co.u...Index_JAN17.pdf

 

YoY price falls increasing in London



#66 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 91,143 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 14 January 2017 - 06:33 AM

http://www.home.co.u...Index_JAN17.pdf

 

YoY price falls increasing in London

Greater London
Jan-17 : Average Asking Price : £538,074
Headlines
Greater London slips further into negative territory with prices having lost 1.1% over the last year.
• The number of properties entering the market has increased in all regions with the
largest rises in the East of England (+18%) and Scotland (23%) (Dec 16 vs. Dec 15).
• Average home price for England and Wales shows no significant change since last month’s fall.
Regional Market Round-up
Looking at the regional level we can see clearly that the tables have turned. No longer is London
storming ahead with blistering price rises. In fact the opposite is true. Prices are in retreat in the
capital region and the market in the South East is also slowing rapidly. Meanwhile, it is the East and
West Midlands that are the new shining stars of the UK property market.

 

Interesting.

I went to a property sales presentation here in HK, and there were some hints that prices were negotiable


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#67 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 91,143 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 23 January 2017 - 12:46 PM

I found links to these two articles

 

/ 1 /

Economists Explain Why Our Economy Crashes Every 18 Years

www.theepochtimes.com/.../2000510-economists-explain-why-our-economy-crashes-...

Mar 25, 2016 - ... economist and director of the Land Research Trust, Fred Harrison. ... Harrison predicts the midcycle recession will hit in 2019, and the current ...

 

/ 2 /

Are we heading for a crash? | Albert Edwards, Aditya Chakrabortty ...

https://www.theguardian.com › Opinion › Global economy

Jan 29, 2016 - Fred Harrison: A British recession will happen in 2019. Fred Harrison ... Fred Harrison is an economics commentator and author of Boom Bust ...

 

 

Fred Harrison: A British recession will happen in 2019

FredHarrison.png?w=300&q=55&auto=format&

Britain is on course for a recession in 2019, a year before the general election. The crash will not happen before then because politicians and central bankers will appear not to lose their nerves.

The QE (quantitative easing) solution to the 2008 crash has rendered monetary policy useless as a fine-tuning instrument. Policymakers failed to adopt fiscal reforms that could have rescued the UK, so politicians have no tools to guide Britain out of the current turbulence.

Worldwide, central bankers will talk up any good news, hoping to persuade consumers to spend, even as wages continue to be battered. In the US the Fed will not take any chances in the run-up to November’s presidential election. Oil producers will finally do a deal to drive up petrol prices, which will be sold as a step towards normality. Debts will continue to grow, until a peak in house prices in 2019. Then the game will be up.

 

There is also this:

When's the Next Property Crash? - Share The Rents

www.sharetherents.org/whens-the-next-property-crash/

By Fred Harrison on 13 July 2010 in Global Downturn, UK Economy. Finally ... It is ultimately, as Mr Harrison argues, a ruinous way of running our affairs.”.

 

relevant analysis of what caused the Depression of 2010. ...

 

... the new realism began when Martin Wolf analysed my book 2010: The Inquest in the Financial Times (July 8). He summarised the mechanism that drives the economy to distraction in these terms:

 

“Buyers rent property from bankers, in return for a gamble on the upside. A host of agents gain fees from arranging, packaging and distributing the fruits of such highly speculative transactions. In the long upswing (the most recent one lasted 11 years in the UK), they all become rich together, as credit and debt explode upwards. Then, when the collapse comes, recent borrowers, the financial institutions and taxpayers suffer huge losses. This is no more than a giant pyramid selling scheme and one whose dire consequences we have seen again and again. It is ultimately, as Mr Harrison argues, a ruinous way of running our affairs.”

 

That message has to sink into the heads of economists if they want to guide the western economy out of the depression...

. . .

Unless the Wolf realism infects mainstream analysts, expect the disarray to continue and for the next property cycle to terminate in 2025. Wolf has just been appointed as one of 5 experts to the new Financial Policy Committee within the Bank of England, which will operate “in parallel with its existing Monetary Policy Committee”.

Will Wolf be able to influence the Bank of England? Not likely. So a lot of traps await the unwary between now and the Crash of ’25.

 

So perhaps he means: a mid-cycle recession in 2019, followed by a bigger peak, and larger Crash in 2025.

That means the UK would be 1-2 years behind the US cycle.

I do note however that London never had much of a correction in 2008-9, so this 2019 drop could be something more serious for London.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users