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US House Price Data : Philadelphia, NYC & Other Cities


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 30 April 2016 - 06:13 AM

US House Price Data : Philadelphia, NYC & Other Cities

 

Philadelphia price breakout continues... Making new highs. Predicted early 2016.

 

> see special forum : Philly & the East Coast

gvcYxbQ.png

============================================

Northeast Corridor Home Prices
============================================

 City --------- : Value (1) : Rent(1): Yield(1): Value (2): Rent(2): Yield(2): V: YoY: Value+% : R: YoY: Rent+% :
==========: Dec. 2012 : --------------------- : Jun.2017 : --------------------- :
NewYork City : $469,000 : $1,881 : : 4.81% : $685,000 : $2,400 : : 4.20% : +13.2% : +46.1% : +2.13% : +27.6% :
Washington - : $385,000 : $2,403 : : 7.49% : $551,300 : $2,650 : : 5.77% : +6.78% : +43.2% : +2.12% : +10.3% :
Boston ------- : $365,000 : $2,309 : : 7.59% : $558,300 : $2,550 : : 5.48% : +13.2% : +53.0% : - 1.16% : +10.4% :
Philadelphia: $104,000 : $1,081  : 12.47% : $138,800 : $1,204 : 10.41% : +9.90% : +33.5% : - 0.66% : +11.4% :
============================================
 

Philly prices can go a long way before they will be 1/4 of NYC house prices (over $680k)

 

June 2017: $685,000  vs. $138,800 for Philly ($685.0/ $138.8 = 4.94x)
Vs. RENTS : $2,350/mo vs $1,204/mo., Philly ($2,350/ $1,204 = 1.95x)

aa6ZkTh.png

May'17: Philly = 137.3: NYC Condo: 189.89 /1.50 = 126.6 : 20 Cities: 198.38 /1.45 = 136.8 : Philly Jun'17: 138.8

Philly is above its old peak, but 20 Cities & the NY City, Case-Shiller index is not (yet.)

 

.

national-realty-investment-advisors-llc-

Philadelphia Property prices, 1980-2014

 

Inflation-adj, back to 1890:
360px-Case-Shiller_data_from_1890_to_201

> source : http://www.multpl.co...-adjusted/table

 

2017 Tax Rate:

+ To $9,325 :  = x10% =
$9325-37950 = x15% =
37950-91900 = x25% =

========

> C-S wiki: https://en.wikipedia...

> 20Cities: https://research.stl...eries/SPCS20RSA : (monthly data back to 2000)

DataGrid : http://data.okfn.org...house-prices-us

Fels Chrt : http://www.biaofphil...phpi_2013q2.pdf

> RShiller:

========

 

mo Ph-Zhv : YoYr : Nyc_Zhc: YoYr : 20cityI : YoYr : condo: C-NYC : C-Nyc2: C-Wash C-Bost.
'15 116,000:            : 532,000 :          : 175.38 : 4.40% : 244.50: 176.57 : 174.76 : 205.24 : 175.73
F : 117,000:             : 534,000 :          : 177.09 : 4.84% : 245.82: 177.57 : 174.82 : 205.70 : 175.35
M : 116,800:            : 536,400 :           : 178.91 : 4.87% : 247.12: 178.39 : 174.37 : 206.88 : 176.12
A : 116,000:            : 538,000 :           : 179.43 : 4.86% : 249.01: 179.00 : 175.68 : 209.63 : 176.52
M : 116,000:            : 543,000 :           : 178.53 : 4.81% : 250.41: 178.82 : 177.27 : 210.98 : 179.26
J. : 117,000:            : 548,000 :           : 178.48 : 4.82% : 253.08: 178.36 : 179.52 : 212.51 : 181.87
jl. : 119,000:            : 553,000 :           : 178.48 : 4.95% : 253.87: 177.92 : 180.81 : 213.01 : 183.85
A : 121,000:            : 558,000 :           : 178.77 : 5.06% : 254.86: 177.80 : 181.66 : 212.88 : 184.56
S : 122,000:            : 564,000 :           : 179.61 : 5.28% : 255.56: 177.98 : 181.66 : 211.88 : 184.42
O : 123,000:            : 569,000 :           : 180.87 : 5.38% : 255.78: 178.70 : 181.40 : 210.77 : 184.14
N : 122,000:            : 574,000 :           : 182.49 : 5.28% : 256.45: 180.02 : 180.96 : 210.52 : 183.24
D : 121,000:            : 565,000 :            : 183.81 : 5.38% : 257.71: 180.71 : 180.48 : 210.27 : 182.82 :
'16 121,000: 4.31% : 569,000 : 6.95% : 185.31 : 5.66% : 259.40: 179.51 : 179.51 : 208.94 : 182.11 :
F. : 122,000: 4.27% : 572,000 : 7.12% : 186.66 : 5.40% : 261.18: 179.12 : 179.12 : 208.22 : 181.88 :
M : 123,500: 5.74% : 576,000 : 7.46% : 188.56 : 5.39% : 262.90: 179.61 : 179.61 : 209.59 : 184.07 :

A : 124,500: 7.33% : 580,000 : 7.81% : 188.04 : 4.80% : 258.96: 180.45 : 180.52 : 212.88 : 186.73 :
M : 125,400: 8.10% : 585,000 : 7.73% : 187.91 : 5.25% : 260.36: 181.43 : 181.25 : 214.99 : 189.33 :
J. : 126,300: 7.95% : 590,000 : 7.66% : 187.75 : 5.19% : 262.23: 181.72 : 182.73 : 216.36 : 190.35 :
Jl : 129.000: 8.40% : 596,000 : 7.78% : 187.78 : 5.21% : 264.17: 181.00 : 183.68 : 216.98 : 191.49 :
A : 130,000: 7.44% : 602,000 : 7.89% : 188.23 : 5.29% : 266.94: 181.06 : 184.75 : 217.77 : 192.09 :
S : 131,000: 7.38% : 608,000 : 7.80% : 189.03 : 5.24% : 266.40: 181.51 : 184.75 : 217.59 : 192.30 :

O : 132,000: 7.32% : 615,000 : 8.08% : 190.48 : 5.31% : 263.26: 182.27 : 184.14 : 215.36 : 192.32 :
N : 132,000: 8.20% : 622,000 : 8.19% : 192.18 : 5.31% : 264.59: 184.31 : 184.61 : 215.23 : 193.19 :
D : 132,600: 9.59% : 627,000 : 10.1% : 193.97 : 5.53% : 265.89: 186.07 : 185.26 : 215.75 : 194.16 :
J. : 133,700: 10.5% : 630,600 : 10.8% : 195.47 : 5.48% : 267.66: 186.75 : 185.16 : 215.87 : 194.93 :
F. : 134,100: 9.92% : 631,300 : 10.4% : 196.80 : 5.43% : 269.43: 187.86 : 185.44 : 216.39 : 195.60 :
M : 136,100: 10.2% : 650,000 : 12.8% : 198.52 : 5.28% : 273.20: 189.88 : 186.85 : 218.11 : 198.26 :

A : 136,500: 9.64% : 657,900 : 13.4% : 198.18 : 5.39% : 271.98: 191.01 : 188.37 : 220.26 : 199.25 :
M: 137,300: 9.49% : 672,400 : 14.9% : 198.38 : 5.57% : 272.08: 189.89 : 188.65 : 222.48 : 200.82 :
J : 138,800: 9.90% : 685,000 : 16.1% : 198.62 : 5.79% : 273.52: 189.44 : 190.38 : 222.52 : 202.16 :
Jl: 138,900: 7.67% : 686,400 : 15.2% : 199.37 : 6.47% : 272.48: 189.42 : 191.87 : 223.20 : 204.44 :
A : 139,900: 6.80% : 695,600 : 15.5% :

mo Ph-Zhv : YoYr : Nyc_Zhc : YoYr : 20cityI : YoYr : condo: C-NYC : C-NyNs: C-Wash C-Bost.

===

Zillow: Philly : ------> : NYC-Z : -------> : 20-city: 20c-Nsa: condo: NY-rsa: /(NSA): NYC : Wash : Bost :


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 30 April 2016 - 06:22 AM

The 18-year Cycle in the USA

The latest Low was 2012 (with Builders shares bottoming in 2011) ... old image-FabermzVVq5Q.gif

 

The real-estate cycle in the U.S. can be summarized with the following table:

 Peaks in  Interval   Peaks in  Interval   Depressions
land value  (yrs)  Construction (yrs)             interval
1818         --            -----         --           1819     --
1836        18          1836        __          1837     18
1854        18          1856        20          1857     20
1872        18          1871        15          1873     16
1890        18          1892        21          1893     20
1907        17          1909        17          1918     25
1925        18          1925        16          1929     11
1973        48          1972        47          1973     44
1979          6          1978         6           1980       7
1989        10          1986         8           1990     10
2006        17          2006        20          2008!    18  (2012 property Low)
2024?      18          2022-24? 16-18    2026-28 ??
====
Real-estate values and construction have peaked one to two years before a depression, and have stayed at peak levels until the onset of the downturn. The historical evidence is consistent with the theory that speculative booms in real-estate prices and construction act as an impetus for the downturn itself.

==

> more charts: http://www.nowandfut...eal_estate.html

 

US Property - Recovery nearing an end?

 

If the e-wave count on this chart is accurate. the rally in General Housing stocks since the 2008-9 Low maybe be nearly over

 

HGX / Housing General Index ... All-Data : 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 2-yrs: Last: $232.99 / PHM-10yrs / IYR-10yrs

 

k5CJlw7.png

 

US: in America, PHM / Pulte Homes is the main bellwether ...

Update : all data : 5-years : to 7/31/2017 : $24.42 /  High for Year: $25.20

 -------------------------------------------------- > MLhP04U.gif

 

 

Updated : chart : to 7/31/2017 : $283.46 / HGX : High for Year: $287.325

-------------------------------------------------- > BuhaCcI.gif

 

Update : CS- 20 Cities NSA

qbgmZl0.png

 

13-03-26-CS-HPI.jpg


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

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Posted 30 April 2016 - 08:13 AM

C-S Latest: Up +5.4% (yoy, Feb. 2016)

 

Year-over-year changes in the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price index.

chart-2-16-1.jpg

- See more Detail at: http://www.housingvi...h.tSlaBq4M.dpuf

 

 

Home Prices Outpacing Official Inflation Rate, Household Income

Seeking Alpha-44 minutes ago
.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite was up 5.4% on the year (through Feb. 2016), down from 5.7% the previous month and just missing expectations of a 5.5% increase.

Portland, Seattle, and Denver saw the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities with another month of annual price increases.

 

"Home prices continue to rise twice as fast as inflation, but the pace is easing off in the most recent numbers," David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. "The year-over-year figures for the 10-city and 20-city composites both slowed, and 13 of the 20 cities saw slower year-over-year numbers compared to last month."

. . .

Part of this dichotomy between the west and north is due to larger demographic trends, as discussed in this article. More people are moving west and south.

But the growth seen here is also due to the fact that the US is still in the boom part of the business cycle. Credit is still easy to come by for those with income. And job growth, though very anemic (see here) remains stable.

Moreover, the Case-Shiller index deals primarily with single-family homes, and single-family home production has never returned to where it was prior to 2008.

If we take this all together, we can start to see how the boom in home prices is different than the last one. Job growth and wage growth is weaker (where there is real growth at all), and housing production is much lower than it was during the last cycle.

In other words, while we may be in a boom phase, this one is weaker than the last one.

In fact, looking at home price growth according to this index, we find year-over-year growth rates in this cycle have never matched where they were in 2005 and 2006.

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 30 April 2016 - 11:31 AM

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) vs Case-Shiller

 

img1-4ab3fa.png

 

> http://www.zillow.co...june-2014-7831/

To the right is a graph of the previous Case-Shiller index, the revised Case-Shiller index and ZHVI. The revised Case-Shiller index is closer to ZHVI than the previous index. Compared to the previous index the height of the bubble is not as high and the decline is less dramatic, similar to ZHVI.

When comparing these two indices, both of which are used as measures of health of the housing market, it is important to remember they measure two different things. The Case-Shiller National Index uses a repeat sales methodology, which uses homes that have sold[1] at least twice to measure price change. The problem is different segments of homes may appreciate at different rates and different segments of homes may not be proportionally represented when only considering homes that have sold at least twice. While this may give a good view of changing house prices that are being sold, it could provide a biased view when applied to the entire U.S. housing stock.

To learn more about the Zillow Home Value Index and its differences from a repeat sales index, see this previous post featuring a video of Stan Humphries, Zillow Chief Economist, discussing the differences and advantages of ZHVI with CoreLogic Chief Economist Mark Flemming. For more on ZHVI vs. Case-Shiller, click here.

 

C-S versus National Index

April-Case-Shiller-2.png


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

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Posted 01 May 2016 - 07:30 AM

April's Quarterly Report - says Philly Market is still strong

 

LETTER FROM CEO
"The Philadelphia residential market remains strong for another quarter.
Amazingly, interest rates remain below 4% for the fifth quarter in a row and home buyers are still eager to buy homes. The first quarter of 2016 has proven to be better than the first quarter of 2015. Both prices and the number of homes sold have increased year over year.
The number of homes sold in the first quarter of 2016 was up 17% over the first quarter of 2015.
With the overall number of homes on the market remaining steady, this tells us that we are still leaning towards a seller's market where homes are priced appropriately and in good repair. Another $475 million in home sale transactions took place in the past three months.

Remember: Real Estate is local..."
 

Includes detail for specific areas

Examples:

UNIVERSITY CITY                                ( 19104 )
Q1-2016: 67 listed / 36 sold : $266,893 Ave. Price : 56 days on market
Sales in the first quarter of 2016 for 19104 were strong. The median price decreased slightly by 6.7% compared to the same time last year. The price home sellers received was approximately 92.8% of their asking price. The average days on market decreased by 27.4%, and the number of homes sold year over year for this time period significantly increased by 23.8%.
We expect home prices and sales volume to remain flat or increase slightly over the next three months.

 

NORTHERN LIBERTIES |  Loft District/ Callowhill ( 19123 )

Q1-2016: 136 listed / 55 sold : $478,716 Ave. Price : 78 days on market
Sales in the first quarter of 2016 for 19123 were strong. The median price increased by about 13% compared to the same time last year. The price home sellers received was approximately 96% of their asking price. The average days on market decreased by 11.1%, and the number of homes sold year over year for this time period increased by 6.3%.
We anticipate prices and sales to remain flat or increase slightly over the next three months.

 

ART MUSEUM  |  Fairmount/ Francistown ( 19130 )
Q1-2016: 244 listed / 87 sold : $382,556 Ave. Price : 61 days on market
Sales in the first quarter of 2016 for 19130 were fair. The median price increased by 5.1% compared to the same time last year. The price home sellers received was approximately 93.1% of their asking price. The average days on market decreased by 37.5%, and the number of homes sold year over year for this time period decreased by 15.2%.
We anticipate prices and sales to remain flat or increase slightly over the next three months.

==

> http://www.phillyliv...ity Q1 2016.pdf

 

BTW, a number of areas had lower median prices versus a year earlier, but described a tight market / "seller's market".

Is that because the more expensive homes were selling less well??


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 DrBubb

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Posted 09 May 2016 - 02:22 PM

Opinion: The seeds of the next housing crisis have already been planted
 
By Michael Brush : May 6, 2016
 

We’re seeing the same telltale signs that we did a decade ago

MW-EL800_house__20160502163432_ZH.jpg?uu> tahomabeadworks.blogspot.com

Back when the 2005-07 housing bubble was brewing, photos of impossibly small houses selling for insanely high prices famously made the rounds. It was one of those signals that you look back on and say, “Hmmm ... that was a clear indictor of trouble ahead.”

So in what feels like déjà vu, it’s worrying now to see a glorified “tool shed” on the market in New York for a cool $500,000. In Brooklyn, no less. Not even in Manhattan.

Location Scouts: Expert perspective from real estate professionals in top housing markets

 

Here are some other troubling anecdotal signals on the housing market:

 

1. A major financial website recently ran a guide to the best cities to “flip” houses in. (I don’t want to encourage the behavior.) Real estate speculation via house “flipping” was another early sign of trouble ahead.

2. A few days later, news arrived that home prices in the Bronx had shot up by an astonishing 30% in the first quarter. Crazy advances in home values were, a decade ago, also a signal of trouble ahead.

3. Ads, then as now, were running on TV for “quick mortgages.”

 

All of these signals raise a serious question: Are we getting closer to another housing meltdown that will once again damage your investment portfolio?

To find out, I recently checked in with Stephen Oliner of the American Enterprise Institute and the Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA, who tirelessly tracks the housing market for signs of trouble.

His take was not exactly encouraging. We’re actually a lot closer to potential housing-market problems than you might think.

The reason? Easy credit is back.

 

The notion that you need to save a lot of money to buy a house is again being treated as so much “baloney,” said Oliner.

 

I’ll show you why, in a sec. But first, thankfully, at least a full-blown repeat of the 2008 financial crisis is unlikely. That’s because banks aren’t amplifying the problem via wholesale repackaging of home loans into risky investment instruments. At least not yet.

But that should be small comfort. Because housing-sector excesses are clearly developing, which would dramatically worsen a recession. This is bad news, given that growth for the first quarter came in at well under 1% — pretty close to recession.

 

Let’s take a look at the signs of trouble brewing in housing, yet again.

We’re just about back to the zero-percent down payment

“No money down” was one of the big problems contributing to the housing bubble 10 years ago. Unlike the 20% down payment of yore, the availability of zero-money-down loans encourages people to buy homes beyond their means. It also means from Day 1, buyers are underwater, taking closing costs into account.

All of this will compound problems if the economy turns downward and people lose jobs, since they’ll have no cushion in the form of home equity. When you’re underwater in your home, that makes it easier to walk away. Conversely, if it forces you to stick it out, you’ll be less likely to sell (for a loss) and move to where your next job might be.

 

Also read: Nine markets where cash buyers overpay for homes

( Paying in cash typically gets you a 23% discount. )

 

So it’s disconcerting to see that first-time home buyers now put just 3.5% down on their homes, or $8,500, according to Oliner’s numbers.

That’s the median for all first-time home buyers with a government-guaranteed mortgage. Since government agencies back about 80% to 85% of new loans, this covers most first-time buyers. And since first-time buyers make up 58% of the market for primary residences, this covers a big piece of the housing market. (First-time buyers here are defined as anyone who did not own a home for three years before buying, one of the standard definitions in the business.)

For all people buying homes with government loan guarantees — including repeat buyers — the median down payment was 5%, or $12,500. Not much better.

Buyers are stretching their budgets to purchase homes...

==

> more: http://www.marketwat...nk=TDheadline_3


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 DrBubb

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Posted 17 May 2016 - 02:43 AM

Financial Collapse Leads To War | Gerald Celente and Stefan Molyneux

.
SM: Property sales showed a sharp fall in February
GC: The hot spots are overbuilt, and there will be a pullback... First RE collapses, then the jobs decline.
This isnt the time to be buying real estate. There will be a pullback but it wont stay down forever. The hot spots will cool.
The higher end will crash first.  First the high end drops, then the rest comes down

==========

Let's look at the charts...

 

CIGI /. Colliers Group .. All-data : 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 1-yr / 10d

CIGI-all_zpsktvwm3j1.gif

 

 

IYR /. US Real Estate etf : All-data : 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 1-yr / 10d

IYR-all_zpskppt4psy.gif

 

 

PHM /. Pulte Homes ..... All-data : 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 1-yr / 10d

PHM-All_zpsamtqgumm.gif

 

 

HGX /. Housing Index .. All-data : 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 1-yr / 10d

HGX-all_zpsga5ttk25.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 DrBubb

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Posted 28 May 2016 - 01:19 PM

High End US Highrises are coming to Hong Kong

London Property Must be slow...

No London or Australia properties on offer this weekend at Mandarin & Landmark.
Does that mean Hong Kongers are losing their appetite?  (The recent tax rises in the UK cannot help.)

INSTEAD, we have properties from Singapore and Chicago - high end stuff, on par with H
luxury Hong Kong prices:

+ The Nassim, Singapore, with prices like HK$40 million, and up
+ Wanda Vista Tower at Lakeshore East, Chicago: with prices at US$1 million and up

Wanda-vista-gfc_zpsnezjule3.jpg
Wanda Vista in Chicago's waterfront: 3rd tallest in the City

The Vista tower is partly owned and developed by Dalian Wanda Group of mainland China. And so that may explain why the property has been brought to Hong Kong.

It is interesting that we are beginning to see more US properties being marketed in HK.  The US is at a different position in the long cycle than HK - which still has another 3-4 years remaining in its downcycle.  The US had a very severe correction in 2006-2011, and so it could perform better than HK over the next few years.

On thing that may be hard to swallow for HK investors is the high property tax rate in Chicago.  A 6% gross yield may be turned into a 3% net return, with perhaps 2/3rds of that expense being property taxes. 

The property tax I pay in Philly, is much, much less than that - and I am earning over 10% on a pretax (after property tax) basis.

There are rumors that we may see some highend high rises from Philadelphia marketed in Hong Kong before the end of the year.  I wonder how the HK market will react to this type of product: cheaper than NYC, with maybe a higher return... Can Philly overcome its reputation of being "a bit old & quiet" - see the original post.  It isn't really like that anymore, but will people get the message??


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 DrBubb

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Posted 04 June 2016 - 12:51 AM

It's a Hyperbubble, but Sam Zell is selling

 

Fabian Calvo-Hyper-Bubble In Stocks, Dollar & Government Debt

 

The comments suggest that Fabian is still talking about a higher market

 

Published on May 31, 2016

Real estate expert Fabian Calvo says another financial crash is a lock, it’s just when. “Calvo says, “I talk to a lot of people in the business, and they all know it’s coming, but it’s not coming yet. I agree with them. . . . In my business, I don’t buy and hold anything. I buy and immediately sell. . . . This hyper bubble is not just real estate. It’s stocks, government debt and the dollar, as well. I think all of those we could see crash simultaneously. . . . These people are so desperate and arrogant, there really is no telling what they will do. The larger they create this bubble, the more that they fuel this bubble, ultimately, the bigger the crash will be and the more financial devastation and wreckage there will be.”

Calvo buys and sells between $50 million and $100 million a year.
One sure fire way to pop this so called “hyper-bubble” is war. Calvo contends, “I look around, and I see the insanity and the incompetence of the so called leadership in the world today, and I think war is the potential thing that could derail this entire thing. We see the West being belligerent with Russia and the Middle East completely on fire. I wrote a book called “The Global Economic Reset,” and I talked about how a greater regional war, or a world war, could break out over the South China Sea. That, I think, is the biggest black swan we potentially face.”

==

 

If you can see it, is it really a Black Swan?

They come out only at night, when no one is looking

 

Another Real Estate Crash Looms: Sam Zell Dumps Holdings, Warns ...

 

5 days ago - Another Real Estate Crash Looms: Sam Zell Dumps Holdings, Warns ... Now he's selling again, unloading multifamily properties at peak prices ...

. . .

If you haven’t heard yet, median home prices in the United States are on a tear having reached all-time highs in April. To boot, rental prices have gone insane, showing a year-over-year inflationary increase of 8%. On top of that, stock markets are rocketing back to their own all time highs based on the premise that the U.S. economy is seeing healthy growth. By all official accounts, it appears that we’re back on track.

real-estate-easy-money.jpg

 

But appearances can be deceiving and highly acclaimed investment guru Sam Zell isn’t buying the hype. In fact, he’s taking this opportunity to sell… in a very big way.

Wolf Richter explains:

And he has been selling. Back in 2007, he once again proved his sense of market timing. As the commercial property bubble was already teetering, he sold Equity Office Properties Trust to Blackstone for $23 billion, not including $16 billion in debt. Then prices crashed, and commercial property defaults hit the banks. As the dust was settling at the end of the Great Recession, he went on a shopping spree.

 

Now he’s selling again, unloading multifamily properties at peak prices on a massive scale just when a multi-year construction boom is flooding the market with new supply.

 

So when Sam Zell speaks, our ears perk up.

 

Read the full report at Wolf Street

 

On CNBC, Zell lashed out in his soft-spoken and well-balanced manner against the current zero-interest-rate environment in the US, and the fundamental damage it was doing — the man who so hugely benefited from it:

“In the most simplistic terminology, I would ask you the question, if something is free, is it valued? Is it appropriately risked?”

“I think when you talk about interest rates being close to zero for a long period of time, I’m very concerned about the fact that we have desensitized our business community to the cost of capital.”

“And we know that the cost of capital ain’t free,” he said. “Every time you defer facing up to the cost of capital, it’s going to catch up to you. That I think is the biggest concern.”

“We have distorted markets. Maybe we have bubbles.” Then, on second thought, he said, “I don’t even know what a bubble is, so I wouldn’t want to be the definer of it. But I think that we have too much intervention and not enough market movement in interest rates – and in other assets.”


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 DrBubb

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Posted 01 July 2016 - 02:25 PM

It Gets Real: Manhattan Apartment Sales Plunge
by Wolf Richter • June 30, 2016

And Manhattan condo prices plummet 14.5% in 3 months.

Real estate is local. And so housing bubbles are local. When enough of them happen, they coagulate into a national phenomenon. This has already happened. In March 2013, we started calling this phenomenon Housing Bubble 2, and we’ve watched in awe how it bloomed, nurtured by ultra-low mortgage rates, government subsidies, the Fed that is relentlessly “healing” the housing market, yield-desperate investors, private equity firms, Wall Street, a surge of foreign buyers who want to get their money – however they’d obtained it – out of harm’s way, and a million other factors. All of it has been accompanied by a national boom in hype.

Now there are signs that our awe-inspiring Housing Bubble 2, like all housing bubbles, is beginning to unravel. This too is local, here and there, while still booming in other places. It shows up in some key markets. Then it spreads. When it spreads far enough, the unraveling of Housing Bubble 2 becomes a national phenomenon.

It has now started to unravel in some markets that were among the hottest and craziest until last year: Miami, San Francisco, and Manhattan. All three are bogged down in a condo glut.

So here’s Manhattan. Sales of apartments in the second quarter dropped 10% year over year, to 2,281 units, the lowest since crisis-year 2009 (when 1,482 unit were sold), according to The Wall Street Journal, which had dug up the data from city records.

Sales of condos rose 10%. But this includes a large supply of new units in high-rise developments that went into contract months or years ago during the early stages of the development, and that, as The Journal put it, “no longer reflect current market conditions.”


More http://wolfstreet.co...m=45899#respond

=== ===

 

OTP on AX:

 

Similar to Hong Kong?...

We saw a 15% drop in the first 3-4 months from the October 2015 peak in HK, and then some recovery.

If anyone is interested, I think the US (in general) is at a different point in its Long Property cycle than is Hong kong. This cycle is usually 14 years up, and 4 years down. And there is a mid-cycle dip. The mid-cycle dip may be just 1-2 years, like we saw in HK in 2008-9.

For me, HK is past the Long Cycle peak, and many US cities are in the mid-cycle correction.

This may not be so in Manhattan, New York City, which may conceivably be set for a longer downturn, gives its high valuations.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 DrBubb

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Posted 15 July 2016 - 05:07 AM

SIGNS of a US mania, as many "clammer for foreclosure properties"

 

The Housing Market Is Waving a Red Flag Third-party investors are making up an alarmingly high share of auction purchases, according to housing-data firm RealtyTrac
488x-1.jpg

An auctioneer speaks to potential bidders outside a home in Atlanta.

Photographer: Chris Rank/Bloomberg
 
 
 

Almost nine years after the housing-market bust helped trigger the most recent recession, RealtyTrac senior vice president Daren Blomquist sees the industry waving a red flag.

The same fervent speculation that abetted the housing bubble is showing up in the bloated share of foreclosures snapped up by third-party investors at auction — a record 31 percent in June, according to RealtyTrac data that starts in 2000.

Many of those third-party buyers are "mom and pop" investors with less experience, said Blomquist. At the same time, institutional investors, a subset of the third-party investors who purchase at least 10 properties a year, are ducking out of the market.

"It's somewhat counterintuitive — as the market gets better and there are fewer foreclosures available, demand for those good deals, those bargains in the market goes up," said Blomquist. "When you see this high percentage of the properties going to third-party investors, that is a sign that these speculators may be over-inflating the market."

488x-1.png

The third-party investors are gaining a bigger share of a shrinking pie, as foreclosure auctions made up 8 percent of all home sales in June, the lowest since August 2006.

Meanwhile, institutional buyers made up about 38 percent of those investor purchases at foreclosure auctions in June, down from a steady trend of around 50 percent in the first five years of the expansion, the data show. They accounted for 2.5 percent of all home purchases in June, down from a peak of 9.8 percent in February 2013.

The same kind of decline in institutional buyers was a dramatic harbinger of the last downturn as more seasoned stakeholders headed for the sidelines.

"Their analytics are telling them it's not a good time to buy — that's definitely another red flag that they're pulling back at the same time as the less savvy investors are ramping up," he said.

And while investors at foreclosure auctions could rely on about a 40 percent discount from the previous sales price in the early years of the expansion, this year they're only garnering about a 30 percent markdown, Blomquist said.

"The pressure is building in the pressure cooker, and at some point that's going to need to be released," Blomquist said. There's a little time — "probably not in the next month or two but in the next couple of years," a downturn should set in, he said.

Overall, the housing market looks great so the latest data showing a rise in speculation by non-professional investors was an early warning signal, Blomquist said. "Real estate is cyclical — it's not this steady trend upward."

==

> MORE: http://www.bloomberg...ving-a-red-flag


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#12 DrBubb

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Posted 19 July 2016 - 06:31 AM

The Hamptons Housing Market Is Getting Clobbered

/ 1 /

Home sales in the Hamptons, a second-home hub for financiers, New York’s famed families, and actual famous people alike, has fallen to its lowest level in three years, as concerns over global markets in the first quarter of 2016 kept buyers at bay.

The market was hit by a swift one-two punch at the start of the year: a slowdown in China and anemic oil prices caused the S&P 500 to suffer its weakest start to a year since 2009, and Wall Street bonuses—a major source of funding for high-end home purchases—took a blow, too. Hedge funds were coming off a dismal year and continued to bleed well into the first quarter, while lay-offs in the banking sector have continued apace.

http://www.vanityfai...ket-wall-street

 

/ 2 /

According to realtor Town & Country Real Estate, total sales volume in East Hampton fell 53% from a year ago to $44.7 million as the median sale price fell 54% to $2.38 million. In fact, a drop this steep has not been observed since the financial crisis.

In Southampton, total sales fell 48% from the second quarter of 2015 to $45.3 million, with the median sale price falling 21 percent to $1.65 million, data showed.

http://www.zerohedge...f-prices-plunge


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 DrBubb

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Posted 20 July 2016 - 06:01 AM

CLEVELAND :

Buy Foreclosed Home for $1,000. Sell for $70,000. Repeat

 

In 2014, a couple of Cleveland nonprofits teamed up with two for-profit partners and launched an experiment in urban renewal. Called the Slavic Village Recovery Project, the group started out with $450,000 from the two private-sector partners, Cleveland-based developer Forest City Enterprises and Community Blight Solutions, which sells a system to help secure vacant properties using polycarbonate sheets and polyethylene clamping. It started buying abandoned homes, fixing them up, and selling them for a small profit. The idea is to plow the sales revenue back into more neighborhood homes and—with a little luck—into neighborhoods across the beleaguered city.

 

The group buys homes, often for less than $1,000, from the Cuyahoga Land Bank, a nonprofit that acquires homes through tax foreclosures or in bulk purchases from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance giants. Then it does a basic renovation, making sure the plumbing and electrical systems work and putting a fresh polish on hardwood floors 

 

“The key is not how high can we sell homes, it’s about how efficiently can we do the rehab,” said Jeff Kipp, director of neighborhood marketing at Cleveland Neighborhood Progress, one of the nonprofit developers involved in the project.

The group has sold 34 homes, with an additional 20 currently under renovation. Recently the homes have been selling for about $70,000, a modest amount that Kipp views as an achievement. Because there were very few transactions in Slavic Village after the housing bust, it can be hard to sell buyers on the neighborhood, and it's hard for buyers to convince banks to make mortgage loans. Ultimately, Kipp said, the group hopes to fix and flip about 500 homes and then try to export the model elsewhere.

In Cleveland, plenty of neighborhoods could use the boost. The city’s median home price peaked at $85,900 in March 2006. By the next summer, Cleveland had four entries among the 21 U.S. zip codes with the most foreclosure filings. Slavic Village was first.

488x-1.png

In May, a full seven years into the nation’s economic recovery, the city’s median home price was $51,200. Even that figure, the second-lowest among the 150 largest U.S. cities, fails to convey the desperate condition of the local housing market, which includes thousands of homes that are effectively worthless—foreclosed, abandoned, and slated for demolition. 

From a strictly economic standpoint, many homes aren’t worth saving. Some are factory-built abodes constructed as short-term housing for local mill workers; they weren’t built to last a century. Others have been vacant for too long to fix up, or are in neighborhoods that would be better off starting from scratch. The county land bank has acquired 6,400 properties over the past seven years, said Bill Whitney, its chief operating officer. It has demolished 4,300 of them.

 

Jeremy Grove, 26, a teacher at a public high school in downtown Cleveland, was lured to the neighborhood by affordable housing and a sense of community. He and his wife, Heather, a massage therapist, closed on a three-bedroom home recently rehabilitated by the program. The couple were attracted to the home’s old woodwork and modern amenities, and about 30 families from their church live in the neighborhood. A monthly mortgage payment of less than $500 didn’t hurt.

“We plan on raising a family here,” Jeremy said.

==

> MORE: http://www.bloomberg...r-70-000-repeat


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#14 DrBubb

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Posted 23 July 2016 - 03:58 PM

US home prices rise 5.4% in 20 cities in April: S&P/Case-Shiller // 5.2% in May, see /3/ below
Tuesday, 28 Jun 2016 |
 
102460203-GettyImages_169252313.530x298.
 

Home prices rose in April as a growing number of cities surpassed records set before the Great Recession, according to a closely followed index.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index rose 5.4 percent year over year in April.

 

"The home price increases reflect the low unemployment rate, low mortgage interest rates, and consumers' generally positive outlook," David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

Blitzer noted that seven cities are now setting new highs for home prices.

Portland, Oregon, led the gains in April with a 12.3-percent increase. Seattle followed with a 10.7-percent rise, trailed by Denver, which saw home prices rise 9.5 percent in April.

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 5 percent in April from the previous year.

==

> http://www.cnbc.com/...-20-cities.html

 

/ 2 /

Party like its 2007

House sales and prices are rising.  Home sales in June were 5.57 million at annual rates, the highest since February 2007 when national home prices peaked.  Currently prices as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index are climbing at a 5% annual rate and are a mere 3% from their all-time peak.

What next?  The next S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index report will be released on Tuesday morning at 9 AM – check to see if the advance continues.  The data will be posted at www.spdji.com.

 

/ 3 / Added later

 

The pace of U.S. home price gains cooled off in May, coming in below consensus estimates, as regional patterns were seen shifting, according to a monthly report.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index rose 5.2 percent year over year, versus expectations for a reading of 5.7 percent. That marked a sequential slowdown from April's 5.4 percent increase.

Portland, Oregon, led the gainers with price appreciation of 12.5 percent in May. Seattle followed with a 10.7 percent increase, and Denver came in third with a 9.5 percent gain.

> http://www.cnbc.com/...n-may-2016.html


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 DrBubb

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Posted 23 July 2016 - 04:54 PM

NY CONDOS : Up to fast in 2012-15, Slowing in 2016?

 

(Jan.):

New York City real estate continues to sell for astronomical prices, but there are signs the market is heading back toward earth.

 

Bidding wars, brokers say, are less frequent. Few open houses have lines out the door. And asking prices, while still lofty, are increasingly moving down, especially for luxury properties.

“I have seen more broker incentives and price reductions in the last few months than I’ve seen in the last three years combined,” said Leonard Steinberg, the president of the real estate brokerage firm Compass. “The market got carried away with itself in the first half of 2015. Some people went in with crazy pricing expectations.”

 

In the last four months of 2015, about 1,040 available listings in Manhattan cut their asking prices, said Bennett Rosnick, an analyst at Compass. That’s 20 percent of the roughly 5,120 properties on the market then, up from nearly 10 percent during the same period of the previous year, when about 520 properties out of some 5,380 available listings had price cuts

.

Among the discounted listings circulated by brokers and publicists in recent weeks: “$7 Million Price Drop!!” for a five-bedroom at 110 Central Park South, listed for $17.995 million; “1 Million PRICE REDUCTION!” for a three-bedroom penthouse at 15 West 20th Street, listed for $7 million; “HOT DEAL. *$150K Price DROP*” for a one-bedroom at 280 Park Avenue South asking nearly $1.4 million; “PRICE REDUCED” by $14 million in November, and further reduced by a total $18.5 million, for a historic townhouse at 684 Park Avenue, listed for $29.5 million. And the list goes on...

==

> http://www.nytimes.c...state.html?_r=0


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#16 DrBubb

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Posted 24 July 2016 - 08:47 AM

Philadelphia Property has broken out, above the 2007 High

 

As the cheap rents, low prices and high yields start to attract a flood of investments from American investors

 

PhillyRE-Zillow-Jun16_zpst7ehuvpr.png

Northeast Corridor Home Prices
City ---------- : Value (1)- : Rent(1): Yield (1) : Value (2)- : Rent(2): Yield (2): Vl.+chg. : Rt.+chg.
==========: Dec. 2012 : --------------------- : June 2016 : -------------------- :
Boston ------- : $365,000 : $2,309 : : 7.59% : $493,000 : $2,580 : : 6.28% : + 24.9 % : + 11.7 %
NewYork City : $469,000 : $1,881 : : 4.81% : $605,000 : $2,350 : : 4.66% : + 29.0 % : + 24.9 %
Philadelphia: $104,000 : $1,081 : 12.47% : $130,000 : $1,212 : 11.19 % : + 25.0 % : + 12.1 %
Washington - : $385,000 : $2,403 : : 7.49% : $516,300 : $2,595 : : 6.03% : + 34.1 % : + 7.99 %
===========
Note: NYC can be reached in just over 1 hour by train from Philadelphia's Penn Station.
A faster train link is planned
Recently, Yields have been declining in Philadelphia, by they still remain far above those in other major cities

in the Northeast corridor.

 

PhillyYield_zpsnoogrqg2.png

 

Yields are declining because prices are rising faster than rents - though rents have risen from $1,072 to $1,212

 

PhillyRent_zps2kwm4zsa.png

I am told by friends in Philadelphia that New Yorkers and other Americans are discovering the merits

of Philadelphia, which is an attractive and gentrifying city now - the way they saw NYC gentrify over the past several decades

 

If Philly Rents stopped rising, which I do not expect, and rents fell to the average of Boston and Washington (6.15%),

then Philadelphia Real Estate prices would rise to $236,000, or by another +82%.

 

Americans with acceptable income qualifications, can now borrow a 30-year FHA Loan at 3.75%.

 

I am buying houses in the $75,000-110,000 range that I think will appeal (eventually) to Americans who buy for own-use.  These houses are on attractive

"homeowners streets"  where people look after their homes and gardens, and where people want to live and watch the ongoing gentrification of the larger areas that is happening around them.

 

Here's one in West Philly that cost me about $75,000 after purchase and renovation costs

 

Cdr3-June2016_zpsnmvdo7oh.jpg

 

I am earning 11% pre-tax, while I ponder whether I will keep this one or sell it, I bought it for $75,000 and Zillow now values is at over $110,000.  If I can sell it for a big gain like that, I will earn far more than 11% per annum.

 

Update : the house to the left has reportedly been committed for sale at approx. $110k ( 10/2016 )


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 DrBubb

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Posted 02 August 2016 - 01:29 PM

Home prices are still on a tear, CoreLogic says
 

Aug 2, 2016

 

Near-double digit gains in the West and a few declines in the Northeast average out to 5.7%.

MW-ES884_home_p_20160801133448_ZH.jpg?uu

National home prices were 5.7% higher in June compared to a year ago, data provider CoreLogic said Tuesday.

That’s up from a 5.3% yearly increase in May, and the 5.4% notched in April. During the month, prices rose 1.1%.

As always, all real estate pricing is local. Areas with “strong economic growth” like Denver are flourishing, where prices rose 10.2% in June, CoreLogic noted in a release. But some of the metros that saw the sharpest declines during the housing bust are also posting strong gains now, such as Miami, which gained 6.2% in June.

 

TOP TEN STATES
Oregon        10.9%
Washington  10.3%
Colorado       9.2%
Utah              7.9%
Nevada         7.7%
Florida          7.0%
Idaho            6.9%
Texas            6.7%
Montana       6.4%
California      6.0%
===
NY, PA & NJ
New York       4.3%
Pennsylvania 0.1%
New Jersey   -0.8%
===
 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#18 DrBubb

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Posted 09 August 2016 - 03:56 AM

Hot US Cities... Are they "too hot" (ie too expensive) already?

 

%7B364ecb3f-dbf6-429d-8f70-65620f5db050%

 

%7B7034fbd5-495f-4870-97c9-411a0b0e79cc%


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 DrBubb

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Posted 13 August 2016 - 03:07 PM

Re: Philly 2035 Plan is helping to transform Philadelphia - It's huge!

 

Some Readers may not yet be aware of the Philadelphia 2035 Plan.

They may want to browse though the Plan a bit, and it may help them get exited about the investment prospects in the Philadelphia

 

Here's a very brief quote:

"To put things into perspective in just how massive the 30th Street Station District’s draft plan is: Burnham Place would be 14 acres; Millennium Park is 24 acres; Hudson Yards, the largest private real estate development in New York City’s history, is 26. The draft plan for 30th Street Station would cover somewhere between 50 and 70 of the 88 acres of rail infrastructure north of the station."

 

/ 2 /

"Millennium Park cost $495 million. Burnham Place is estimated at $1.5 billion, and Hudson Yards a staggering $20 billion, with nearly $1 billion coming from NYC taxpayers. Schuylkill Yards, which does not involve any capping, projects $3.5 billion in construction costs. Like Burnham Place and Hudson Yards, 30th Street Station’s cap would be paid for mainly by private investors, who would cover its costs in exchange for rights to build huge skyscrapers on top.

In order to make financial sense, the expected rents from commercial and residential tenants in the buildings above the yards would need to be extremely high. That wouldn’t just require higher property values in the surrounding area — it would require significantly higher rents across all of the greater Center City and University City area, otherwise firms would locate slightly further away for significantly cheaper.

In a previous interview with PlanPhilly, Drexel President John Fry described developing Schuylkill Yards as a first step in proving to investors that covering the rail yard makes financial sense."

 

> More: http://planphilly.co...l-yards-by-2050


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#20 DrBubb

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Posted 27 August 2016 - 09:58 AM

BEARISH - a too Bearish article?

 

Prices are back to the levels of 10 years ago. But that does not mean it is a bubble.

(Incomes are higher, and interest rates are lower)

 

We now live with a market dependent on a single marginal buyer: the central banking cartel. This raises some very concerning questions. What happens when it can no longer print at the same rate? (Prices will collapse). Or even worse: What happens if it keeps printing at this rate? (At some point: hyperinflation, as the purchasing power of the world's major currencies gets destroyed)

The Housing Market: Poised For Another Crash?

 

Housing is similarly at risk. Prices in many markets have been bid up past their previous 2007 bubble highs:

CASE-SHILLER-APRIL-BUBBLE-CHARTS.png

(Source)

This recklessly swift return to bubble heights is being indirectly driven by the same central bank money printing we see in stocks. The liquidity of new capital flooding across the world is seeking a return as well as safety. At this point, the US is one of the few markets offering both positive stock returns and (barely) positive interest rates.

 

So tons of overseas money is flowing in. In popular housing markets like San Francisco, Seattle, Manhattan and Vancouver, the marginal buyer over the past half-decade has largely been foreign, looking to get his cash away from the market and confiscation risk of his native country (I've written often about the impact that the wave of over-asking-price, all-cash offers has had on Silicon Valley, where I lived until recently).

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> http://www.marketora...ticle56275.html


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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