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DrBubb's Diary - Nov. 2017 Trading - v.106


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#1 DrBubb

DrBubb

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:29 AM

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2017.    The Diary's 106th Month, 8 years+ since 3/09 Low : Still no Peak

cWtz2j0.jpg

Assange : "there's a weird psychological phenomenon in the US"

Amy Goodman shows she is just another member of the Lie Stream media...

Amy tries to procure Lies & Spin, while ignoring the Real news in Catalonia, etc

 

================

 

 DrBubb's Diary - Nov. 2017 Trading - v.106

 

================

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) .. update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio /

dyz6FkX.gif

 

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

 

Gold in EUR - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:

xx

Medium Term - 3 Years:

xx

 

"US Stocks-in-Euros" ... SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE Ratio ... update

RUw4Tzh.png

 

This Ratio - SPX to Euros seems to move in a nice clear channel

 

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

 

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious.  (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

"Big Three" Charts (SPY, GLD, DXY) ... 10d-Intraday : 6mos-D : 2yrs-D : 5yrs-D // CUvsGLDvsCRB

Ljfjevr.gif

 

 

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula:  (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

 

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :
end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :
end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :
end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :
end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :
end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :
end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :
end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :
end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :
end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :
 

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
======
"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:29 AM

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
03-31: 206.43 - 1.82: 127.M: 15.29 : 18.24 - 0.23: 113.66 - 0.09: 4.38M: 1,185.5 $47.49* 98.406 +0.432: 130.69 +0.28: 00: 000/ 000: 2800
06-30: 205.85 +0.43: 155.M: 18.23 : 17.76 - 0.14: 112.31 - 0.70: 7.54M: 1,172.1 $59.09* 95.516 +0.541: 117.46 -0.82 : 11, 118/ 086, 1887
09-30: 192.13 +0.50: 142.M: 24.50 : 13.74 +0.33: 106.86 - 1.12: 7.19M: 1,114.5 $45.34* 96.282 +0.384 : 123.54 - 0.43: 04: 133/ 104, 2853
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

2016
01-29: 193.72 +4.61: 182.M: 20.20 : 14.21 +0.35: 106.95 +0.41 : 7.92M: 1118.4 $33.74* 99.531 +0.950 : 127.30 +1.07 :

02-29: 193.56 - 1.53: 109.M: 20.55 : 19.38 +0.69: 118.64 +1.53 : 11.5M: 1239.3 $33.90* 98.150 - 0.030 : 130.98 +0.57 : 00, 075/ 000 , 2,143
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50 : 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54 : 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* 94.630 -0.0.99 : 130.61 +0.92 : 01 ,094/ 055 , 2,950
04-29: 206.33 - 1.11 : 124.M: 15.70 : 25.83 +1.55: 123.65 +2.36 : 18.2M: 1294.9 $45.90* 93.018 - 0.448 : 129.38 +0.33 : 0?, 060/ ???  , 2800
05-31: 209.84 - 0.40 : 88.7M: 14.19 : 22.58 +0.30: 116.06 +0.44 : 8.06M: 1217.5 $48.83* 95.861 +0.161 : 130.16 +0.31 : 0?, 088/ ???  , 2651
06-30: 209.48 +2.82 : 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63 : 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* 95.809 +0.046 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ ???  , 1941
07-29: 217.12 +0.35 : 70.1M: 11.87 : 30.59 +0.84: 128.98 +1.32 : 12.9M: 1357.9 $41.60* 95.517 - 1.044 : 141.56 +1.17 : 0?, 064/ ???  , 2781

08-31: 217.38 - 0.62 : 71.9M: 13.42 : 25.42 -0.42 : 124.78 -0.25 : 13.2M: 1311.4 $44.70* 95.985 - 0.050 : 139.87 +0.20 : 03, 067/  237 , 5200

09-30: 216.30 +1.62 : 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 : $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24 / 04, 096 : 412 , 5556

10-31: 212.55 +0.01 : 55.9M: 17.06 : 24.52 +0.71: 121.94 +0.36:  7.09M: 1273.1 : $46.86* $98.44 +0.10 : 131.25 +0.80 / 10, 094 : 620 , 5200
11-30: 220.38 - 0.53: 92.0M: 13.33 : 20.83 - 0.40 : 111.75 - 1.52: 10.9M: 1173.9 : $49.44* 101.54 + 0.59 : 120.24 - 1.98 / 02, 107 : 311 , 5561
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 : $53.72* 102.38  - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18 / 03, 096: 360 , 4840

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02  00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 + 1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 : $52.80* $99.74  - 0.62 : 119.84  +0.57 / 08 120: 4554, 10,254

02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 : $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 07, 083; 216. 3,741

03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 : $50.60* 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 05, 115 : 210, 5,967

04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 : $49.33* $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 04, 90 : 530, 7,267

05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32* $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 00, 106 : 600, 6,542

06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 - 0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04* $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/

====
 

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

June

29: 241.35 - 2.14 98.8M: 11.44 : 21.95 - 0.48 : 118.32 - 0.58 7.62M: 1245.8 $44.93: $95.55 - 0.46 : 125.41 - 1.06/ 02, 091 : 237, 4297

30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13 : 118.02 - 0.30 6.79M: 1242.3 $46.04: $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/

July

28: 246.91 - 0.29 41.3M: 10.29 : 22.91 +0.34 : 120.69 +0.90 6.64M: 1275.3 $49.75 : $93.33 - 0.60 : 123.89 +0.73/ 00, 084 : 000, 4000

#

31: 246.77 - 0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17 : $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 00, 094 : 000, 4,570

AUG

31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23 : $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 03, 091 : 231, 4,766

SEP

01: 247.84 +0.35 49.6M: 10.13 : 24.78 +0.06 : 126.06 +0.24 11.3M: 1330.4 $47.29 : $92.85 +0.17 : 126.75 - 0.98/ 08, 008 : 040, 0040
#

29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: %9.51 : 22.96: -0.20 : 121.58 -0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51,67 : $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 01, 060 : 081, 2970

===

OCT

02: 252.32 +1.09 46.0M: %9.35 : 23.05: +0.09 : 120.77 -0.81 10.6M: 1275.8 $50.58 : $93.59 +0.52 : 124.28 -0.48/ 00, 008 : 000, 0122

03: 252.86 +0.54 00.0M: %9.78 : 23.43: +0.38 : 121.18 +0.41 00.0M: 1274.6 $50.42 : $93.63 +0.04 : 124.19 -0.09/ 04, 012 : 068, 0190

04: 253.16 +0.30 41.9M: %9.46 : 23.42: - 0.01 : 121.17 - 0.01 6.41M: 1276.8 $49.98 : $93.59 - 0.04 : 124.41 +0.22/ 00, 012 : 050, 0240

05: 254.66 +1.50 00.0M: %9.19 : 23.22: - 0.20 : 120.52 - 0.65 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $93.92 +0.33 : 123.84 - 0.63/

06: 254.37 - 0.29 65.2M: %9.65 : 23.59: +0.37 : 121.09 +0.57 9.78M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $93.80 - 0.12 : 123.59 - 0.35/ 00, 016 : 000, 0360

#

09: 253.95 - 0.42 00.0M: 10.33 : 23.74 +0.15 : 122.72 +1.63 0.00M: 1275.0 $49.29 : $93.26 +0.00 : 123.98 +0.39/
10: 254.62 +0.67 38.2M: 10.08 : 23.57 - 0.17 : 122.40 +0.32 7.08M: 1274.9 $49.29 : $93.27 +0.01 : 124.18 +0.20/ 00, 021 + 000, 0476

11: 255.02 +0.40 35.3M: %9.85 : 23.80 +0.23 : 122.79 +0.39 5.55M: 1288.9 $51.30 : $92.86 - 0.41 : 124.42 +0.24/ 04, 025 : 037, 0513
12: 254.64 - 0.38 40.1M: %9.91 : 23.72 - 0.08 : 122.89 +0.10 2.99M: 1296.5 $50.60 : $93.02 +0.16 : 124.95 +0.53/ 07, 032 : 044, 0547

13: 254.95 +0.31 40.9M: %9.61 : 23.84 +0.12 : 123.82 +0.93 6.60M: 1304.6 $51.45 : $93.06 +0.04 : 125.85 +0.90/ 04, 036 : 053, 0600
#

16
17: 255.46 +0.00 00.0M 10.31 : 23.42 - 0.00 : 122.13 - 0.00 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $93.41 +0.00 : 125.92 - 0.00/
18: 255.72 +0.25 33.5M 10.07 : 23.33 - 0.09 : 121.67 - 0.46 3.63M: 1283.0 $52.26 : $93.41 +0.00 : 125.09 - 0.83/
19: 255.79 +0.07 54.1M 10.05 : 23.44 +0.11 : 122.39 +0.72 5.36M: 1290.0 $51.51 : $93.16 - 0.25 : 125.31 +0.22/ 00, 060 : 000, 0800
20: 257.11 +1.32 70.5M: %9.97 : 23.23 -0.21 : 121.61 -0.78 7.25M: 1280.5 $51.84 : $93.66 +0.51 : 123.98 -1.33/ 05, 065 : 050, 0850

#

23: 256.11 -1.00 54.0M: 11.07 : 23.14 -0.09 : 121.80 +0.19 5.03M: 1280.5 $51.84 : $93.79 +0.13 : 124.20 +0.22/ 00, 073 : 000, 0950

24: 256.56 +0.45 57.8M: 11.16 : 22.95 -0.19 : 121.33 -0.47 4.88M: 1278.3 $52.47 : $93.94 +0.15 : 123.43 - 0.77/ 05, 078 : 000, 0981

25: 255.29 -1.27 85.0M: 11.23 : 22.83 -0.12 : 121.35 +0.02 4.27M: 1279.0 $52.18 : $93.54 -0.40 : 122.84 -0.58/ 03, 081 : 047, 1028
26: 255.62 +0.33 0.00M: 11.30 : 22.43 -0.40 : 120.33 -1.02 0.00M: 1269.6 $52.64 : $94.64 +1.10 : 122.43 -0.41/
27: 257.71 +2.09 84.1M: %9.80 : 22.57 +0.14 : 120.90 +0.57 6.40M: 1271.8 $53.90 : $94.81 +0.17 : 123.24 +0.81/ 00, 088 : 000, 1110

#
30: 256.75  -0.96 45.5M: 10.50 : 22.76 +0.19 : 121.13 +0.23 4.95M: 1277.7 $54.15 : $94.53 -0.28 : 124.42 +1.18/ 00, 098 : 000, 1213

31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 -0.28 : 120.67 -0.46 3.76M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/

Nov
01: 257.49 +0.34 00.0M: 10.20 : 22.48 +0.00 : 121.11 +0.44 0.00M: 1277.3 $54.30 : $94.72 +0.18 : 125.75 +0.29/
02: 257.59 +0.10 49.1M: %9.93 : 22.58 +0.10 : 121.19 +0.08 5.34M: 1278.1 $54.54 : $94.69 -0.03 : 125.30 +0.55/ 00, 008 : 000, 057

03: 258.45 +0.86 00.0M: %9.76 : 22.43 -0.15 : 120.62 -0.57 0.00M: 1269.2 $55.64 : $94.74 +0.05 : 125.64 +0.34/
06: 258.85 +0.40 39.8M: %9.40 : 22.91 +0.48 : 121.65 +1.03 6.69M: 1281.6 $57.35 : $94.75 +0.01 : 126.11 +0.47/ 00, 022 : 000, 500

07: 258.56 -0.19 00.0M: %9.89 : 22.73 -0.18 : 121.21 -0.44 0.00M: 1275.8 $57.20 : $94.84 +0.09 : 126.64 +0.53/ 04, 026 : 075, 0575
08: 259.11 +0.55 40.7M: %9.78 : 22.89 +0.16 : 121.63 +0.42 5.54M: 1283.7 $56.81 : $94.88 +0.04 : 126.36 -0.28/ 03, 029 : 079, 0654
09: 258.17 -0.94 90.9M: 10.50 : 22.81 -0.08 : 122.13 +0.50 5.97M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $94.49 -0.39 : 126.00 -0.36/ 01, 030 : 040, 0694

10: 258.09 -0.08 00.0M: 11.29 : 22.52 -0.29 : 121.13 -1.00 7.12M; 1000.0 $00.00 : $94.39 -0.10 : 124.10 -1.90/

13: 257.73 +0.00 00.0M: 11.59 : 22.59 +0.00 : 121.56 +0.00 0.00M: 1282.9 $55.70 : $93.89 -0.00 : 125.20 +0.00/
14: 256.44 -1.29 69.1M: 13.13 : 22.65 +0.06 : 121.41 -0.15 4.94M: 1277.7 $55.33 : $93.83 -0.06 : 126.56 +1.36/ 00, 040 : 000, 0873
15: 258.62 +1.18 00.0M: 11.76 : 22.60 -0.05 : 120.40 -1.01 0.00M: 1278.2 $54.35 : $93.92 +0.09 : 125.46 -0.10/
16: 257.86 -0.76 63.8M: 11.43 : 22.79 +0.19 : 122.86 +1.46 10.5M: 1296.5 $56.71 : $93.67 -0.25 : 126.39 +0.93/
 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:31 AM

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: June 30, 2017

 

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - to 12/31/16 : $134.85, 2016 range: $93.64 to 138.82 : +48.25% - beta 1.845

... All : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015last-12mos

Eum0OSz.gif

 


EIGHT KEY CHARTS 
=================

- Watch for the 76d-MA (blue) Crossing the 987d-MA (yellow), or

- The 52wk MA crossing the 330wk-MA -on Weekly chart

Updates: (updated at end Dec. 2016) - some updates still needed
=====

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53, 2016 range: 181.02 to 228.34 : +26.14% - beta 1.00

 Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over soon

91oi1Lu.gif

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13, 2016 range: 116.80 to 143.62 : +22.96% - beta 87.8%

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

vQgDVPr.gif

 

update

TLT / 5 years of Bond market action ... update: 130 is a 50% retracement of the drop

1Jh7UfT.gif

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46, 2016 range: $23.96 to $26.77 : +11.73% - beta 44.9%

Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but looking very tired

we0MnPN.gif

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 2016 range: $07.67 to $12.45 : +62.32% - beta 2.38

Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : 10yrL :  Price is battling that old Downtrend

3KjXXv8.gif

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP... to 12/31/16 : $75.32, 2016 range: $49.93 to $78.45 : +57.11% - beta 2.185

Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is DOWN, reversing?

Old-trend-was-accelerating ... as the uptrend ended

6jhe9mD.gif

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016 range: $07.67 to $12.45 : +62.32% - beta 2.38

All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

y8duvmx.gif

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61, 2016 range: 102.49 to 131.15 : +27.96% - beta 1.07

All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

g5HatzJ.gif

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92, 2016 range: $12.40 to $31.79 : +156.4% - beta 5.98

GDX  ... All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

Yxg6cVX.gif

.

HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data-update :

qov4i26.gif

.

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

joDAcWU.gif

 

 

===== Links to other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : ??

PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new, 

=====


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:31 AM

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

 

The next cyclical downturn may have started "early" in September - Low due near year-end maybe?

 

GLD: 1-yr: 2-yr : end-may: $116.06 +0.44/ UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840: $ 898.5 /7.76= $115.80 : HK-3081: $29.35 r-30.61

mU5eFVS.gif

 

The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

 

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90
Gold-toUSD_zp.png

 

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally !   And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:Gold-toUSD.png

 

In April'17, I said: The Rally "may be petering out in April, and Gold (gold shares and silver), turned lower with bonds."

I anticipated this - and went short, selling Gold positions, and buying puts on TMF, a 3X etf linked to Bond prices.

But this anticipated cyclical low (May/June) either came early, or is coming late - It does not look as distinct (yet!) as prior lows.

So I am relunctant to bet on the Low and Buy at this stage.

 

TMF - this chart was from mid-April

"Rising interest rates, may turnaround the falling dollar, and "put the Kabash" on the rise in Gold..."

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.

And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle - but this latest dip in Gold has not been accompanied by TMF until this week

 

TMF... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos / 10-dthis chart was from mid-April7nuMzVn.gif

:

TMF - tends to move with Bonds, Gold, Gold shares, silver...

TMY is approximately about 9% lower, over just four days

TMF-etc.10d ... update

 : Chart below is updated to 9/29/2017

sqptifd.gif

 

....prices may have peaked again on Sept.7th

Peak /Last : - TMF- : - TLT - / - UGLD : - GLD / - GDX- : - SLV- :

09/07/2017 : $23.33 : 129.78 / $12.69 : 128.13 / $25.49 : $17.10 :

09/29/2017 : $20.87 : 124.76 / $10.76 : 121.58 / $22.96 : $15.74 :


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:32 AM

BRADLEY Model : 
TURN dates
2015 : May 10, May 25, June 8, Sept. 23, Oct. 17
2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29
2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, -Jan.4, +Jan.17
====

SPY... 2015-2017: Dec.31, 2016: $223.53 / May.01, 2017: $ 238.77 +$15.24 : + 6.82% on the Year

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, / -Jan.4, +Jan.17

ffk33oq.gif

 

Model for 2017: 2016 : 2015 :
SP_500_Bradley_Siderograph.png
===

 

Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks... In early July (when the Bradley model peaked), TLT hit new highs.

TLT... 2015-2017 : Dec.31, 2016: $119.13 / Mar.01, 2017: $119.47 : + $0.34 : + 0.29% on the Year

GG54bfS.gif

 

USD trade-weighted:

DXY ... 2015-2017DXY-all-data : 10d : Dec.31, 2016: $102.36 / Mar.01, 2017: $101.77 : - $0.59 : - 0.57% on the Year

fn6Aku8.gif

 

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

JU8rbKH.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 DrBubb

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:32 AM

Relative Valuations : Resistance at 200% - Now at the TOP of the Ranges!

 

SPX -toGold Ratio seems to pull back when it hits 2.0 -

"May happen again soon," I said in early May, and it pulled back from 1.977 ! and then again at 2.012 !

Now at end-October the ratio has hit 2.02

 

MgtWXzq.png

 

Date----- : - SPY-  : - GLD- : Ratio : Comment------------
12-29-08 : $86.91 : $86.35 : 1.006 : SPY-vs-GLD Chart period begins (since first post)
09-06-11 : 116.99 : 182.90 : 0.640 : near Gold peak (of $1800
12-02-15 : 208.53 : 100.69 : 2.071 : near Gold low (of $1045.40; GLD: 100.23)
02-11-16 : 182.86 : 119.05 : 1.535 : near SPX low (of $1810.10; SPY: 181.09)
06-30-17 : 241.80 : 118.02 : 2.049 : Latest: may retest R-2.07+ and rollover
=======
Notes: R-0.64 at Gold peak x 1.618= 1.035 / x 1.618 x2 = 2.070 Target for Ratio & SPY peak?

 

SPX -toTLT / Bonds floating at high level (on cheap money) - But stocks are even more extreme

k2Ppztz.png

 

TMF (2x bonds) vs. UGLD, GDX, SLV ... 5-years

OLD chart

bBIZ3kl.gif

UPDATED:

1DU4iIr.gif

 

=

Peak /Last : - TMF- : - TLT - / - UGLD : - GLD / - GDX- : - SLV- :

09/07/2017 : $23.33 : 129.78 / $12.69 : 128.13 / $25.49 : $17.10 :

09/29/2017 : $20.87 : 124.76 / $10.76 : 121.58 / $22.96 : $15.74 :

10/31/2017 : $20---

- change - - :


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 DrBubb

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 04:57 PM

A potential ETF looks to provide exposure to blockchain, bitcoin’s foundational technology MarketWatch


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 DrBubb

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 05:16 PM

KITCO

SWOT Analysis: What a Higher Budget Deficit Means For Gold Frank E. HolmesOct 30

Gold's Still Looking Good Mary Anne & Pamela AdenOct 24

 

Kitco%20Gold%201.gif

 

Even though there has been a pullback in gold prices, large buy orders came into the market two times this week and spiked prices higher. On Monday, 18,1792 gold contracts were traded in a span of five minutes and on Wednesday another 21,129 contracts were traded. Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals trading at BMO Capital Markets, bets the dollar is going to retrace and it will be good for gold.

 

Opportunities

  • The U.S. posted its largest budget deficit since 2013 in the fiscal year that just ended and the Senate also approved a budget resolution that would fast-track up to $1.5 trillion in tax cuts. These measures would worsen the deficit situation, writes Saleha Mohsin. Despite this threat of higher interest rates, rising budget deficits have historically been associated with higher gold prices.

  • Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, shared that the top 0.1 percent of households now holds about the same amount of wealth as the bottom 90 percent – similar to the wealth gap from 1935 to 1940 in the “era of populists” much like we are seeing today. Dalio continued to say that the Federal Reserve should more closely monitor the economic struggles of the bottom 60 percent of the economy and look beyond average statistics.

 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 DrBubb

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 05:23 PM

  17_10_05_Ivan_Bebek_SS0.jpg RERUN: Have We Reached Peak Gold? - Auryn Resources

$5,000 Gold? Not In Your Lifetime Says Harry Dent Nov 2, 2017 11:33AM

Don’t expect to see gold prices skyrocket in your lifetime.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 DrBubb

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Posted 03 November 2017 - 11:17 PM

SPX - Last 20 Years : all data : all-log : 5-years // http://www.Livecharts.co.uk


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 DrBubb

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Posted 04 November 2017 - 01:50 AM

Lie Stream has FAILED to report...

 

BAM! BRAZILE BREAKS SILENCE; HILLARY RIGGED RACE...

DIRTY DEAL BEFORE BIDEN PUSHED OUT...

Network newscasts don't mention revelations...

 

 

The broadcast evening newscasts on three major networks on Thursday didn't mention bombshell revelations by former Democratic National Committee interim Chairwoman Donna Brazile.

Brazile has written in a new book that she discovered evidence that she said showed Hillary Clinton’s campaign "rigged" the Democratic presidential primary.

"ABC's World News Tonight," "NBC Nightly News" and "CBS Evening News" all didn't report the allegations by Brazile on Thursday evening despite it receiving considerable coverage on cable news and in print and online media. Brazile was also trending as one of Twitter's top topics on Thursday.

. . .

Despite the Brazile blackout, the ABC, NBC and CBS evening newscasts all featured reports on special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election and the recent indictments of Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his business associate, Richard Gates.

The so-called Big Three evening newscasts draw more than 20 million viewers combined on a nightly basis.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#12 DrBubb

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 10:28 AM

OK2bW MEME is getting stronger

 

ITS-OKAY-TO-BE-WHITE.jpg?resize=600%2C35

The 'It's Okay to Be White' Campaign is Pure Gold | The New Nationalist

 

The folks at 4chan have hit a raw nerve with “Operation White.” The  campaign involves printing and posting around major cities — and especially college campuses — an innocuous flyer with only the simple phrase “IT’S OKAY TO BE WHITE.” This fight club tactic could be extended to “IT’S OKAY TO BE STRAIGHT” as well.

This is an ingenious method to flush out the white haters (a.k.a racists). It’s truly jujitsu in that it’s using the enemy’s own clumsy weight to expose them and take them down. The responses from triggered Marxists highlight anti-white bigotry better than any number of rallies ever could. The outrage over this phrase explicitly proves there is a well-oiled conspiracy against whites. This is as golden as it gets in terms of tactics and theater. It should get the desired awakening response of the normies observing it. The New Nationalist gives it a big thumb’s up.

 

Our advice is to just keep it on the up and up. Absolutely no racial slurs. Further this not particularly a black-on-white issue. It’s a cultural Marxist issue...

DNlgYlaW0AAY8JZ.jpg?resize=222%2C300

 

Where does all this come from? The victim feminism, BLM and the gay rights movement, the invented statistics, the rewritten history, the lies, the demands, all the rest of it.

Cultural Marxism, or political correctness, dictates that all history is determined by power and oppression. Groups are defined in terms of race, sex, etc., and have power over other groups. Nothing else matters. Today, there is a 55% majority of whites, including normies who are aware of this anti-white racial gaming. The OK-to-be-white fight club meme and the reaction to it plays effectively to that.

In the divide-and-conquer, cultural Marxist/politically correct, twisted worldview, certain groups are good: feminist women (only feminist women; traditional/non-feminist women are deemed traitors to the cause), blacks, Hispanics, homosexuals, transgenders. These groups are determined to be “victims” and therefore automatically good regardless of what any of them do.

==

> more: http://www.newnation...n-is-pure-gold/

 

from comments > cartoon

 

Liberals Flip Out Over "It's Okay To Be White" Signs - at 29 minutes!

 

PJW get's onboard the OK2bW Train

 

PAUL JOSEPH WATSON, ITS OK TO BE WHITE? 11/2/17 ALEX JONES INFOWARS


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 DrBubb

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 10:30 AM

Sessions: INSTRUCTED: Go Investigate her !

 

Trump to Jeff Sessions: Make Your Move Against Hillary

 

How long before we see her on the Hot Seat?

And then rotting in a Jail cell?


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#14 DrBubb

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 12:09 PM

Weird Weekend #1

 

Just sold some BTS at $7550+

 

ROUNDTABLE : CLIF HIGH, PALADIN & KERRY : CRYPTO CURRENCIES & THE FUTURE

 

Nov. 2nd

 

Clif High & a forensic investigator


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 DrBubb

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 12:10 PM

Weird Weekend #2:

CATHERINE AUSTIN FITTS - THE MISSING TRILLIONS: A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS! DARK JOURNALIST

 

5 days ago


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#16 DrBubb

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 12:13 PM

Weird weekend #3

 

Yogis Of Tibet Rare Documentary

 

Preserving some rare knowledge through unique interviews

 

Tibetan STATUE found by 1930s NAZI expedition is of ALIEN ORIGIN ...

Sep 27, 2012 - ... as it has emerged that a 1938 Nazi expedition to Tibet brought back a ... out that the "Iron man" idol or figure is made of extraterrestrial ataxite, ...

 

/ 2 /

Secrets of the Sex Magic Space Lamas Revealed! Tibetan Buddhist ...

Oct 23, 2015 - In this post I'm going to be talking a little about aliens. Tibetan ones, specifically. Also, sex magic. Bear with me now. A lot of this may be quite ...

 

/ 3 /

A Previously Unheard UFO Story From A Tibetan Lama - Week in Weird
weekinweird.com/2014/04/26/previously-unheard-ufo-story-tibetan-lama/

Apr 26, 2014 - It's not everyday that I discuss UFOs with a Tibetan lama over lunch. Our meeting was pure chance; I was planning to meet my friend Jim in ...


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 DrBubb

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 07:32 AM

SCUM-ocrats "being taken down"?

- starting while Trump is out of town, in Asia

 

"The whole NWO is coming down... Rats are leaving the sinking ship"

BREAKING! SETH RICH, DNC, HILLARY 11/5/17 (pt-2) ALEX JONES INFOWARS

 

"everyone is running from the Clintons right now"

 

April dJ: Arrest of Tony Podesta, John Podesta and Hillary Clinton

 

Democrats who do not want to be part of it, are deserting the sinking ship

 

"With any luck we will be seeing Liberals getting out of the country in droves"

Hmm.

Are Bill and Hillary about to fly the coop... to Dubai or someplace
2739062264_8a315dd6cb_thumb%25255B5%2525

 

Further Rumors : Glen Canady

Podesta to be indicted Nov.3rd, and Huma on Nov.6th/ Monday


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#18 DrBubb

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 07:48 AM

 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Hillary Gone?

lead_960.jpg

The Donald may have noticed the Clintons are Leaving


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 DrBubb

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 02:58 PM

Canadian Mint / MNT.t ... Can. Dollar etf for Gold

 

MNT.T ... update

JMdVEA4.gif

 

Grand Columbian Gold / GCM.t ... Gold stock, quoted in C$

p203hsB.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#20 DrBubb

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 11:48 PM

same cause? (low rates, excessive greed) / same trigger? (higher rates, weakened confidence)

Global-house-price-index.png

 

Global Real Estate Prices at ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH! Here’s Why This Will Crash HARD!

 

The Cabal And The Dollar Will Be Coming Down All At A Once:V & CJ

 

Bitcoin, Real Estate, and FAANG Stocks - Investment Manager Compiles List of World's Largest Bubbles

 

Consequences Just Ahead: The Greatest Debt Induced Bubble In World History Is Now At Its Apex. The Hubris Of Central Bankers, Corporate Chieftains, Corrupt Politicians, And Feckless Media Oligarchs Has Reached Epic Proportions.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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