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US House Price Data : Philadelphia, NYC & Other Cities


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#61 DrBubb

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:43 PM

GREENSPAN WARNS...

Cities ring housing bubble alarm...

Four major US cities ring housing bubble alarm

  • Home prices in Denver, Houston, Miami and the Washington, D.C., metro area are now considered overvalued.
  • Some previously hot markets, such as San Francisco and the New York City metropolitan area, are cooling down.
  • Low mortgage rates are keeping the market affordable from a monthly perspective, but affordability will likely become a much bigger challenge in the coming years

To determine if a market is overvalued, CoreLogic compares current prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local economic fundamentals like disposable income. An overvalued market is one in which home prices are at least 10 percent higher than that level. The rest of the top 10 markets are considered "at value," but none are undervalued, as prices are higher in all of them compared with a year ago.

 

"With no end to the escalation in sight, affordability is rapidly deteriorating nationally," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "While low mortgage rates are keeping the market affordable from a monthly payment perspective, affordability will likely become a much bigger challenge in the years ahead until the industry resolves the housing supply challenge."

Home prices rose 6.7 percent nationally in June compared with June 2016. That is a slightly higher annual gain than May. Prices are now up nearly 50 percent from the trough of the housing crash in March 2011.

 . . .

 

“By any measure, real long-term interest rates are much too low and therefore unsustainable,” the former Federal Reserve chairman, 91, said in an interview. “When they move higher they are likely to move reasonably fast. We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices. This is not discounted in the marketplace.”

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While the consensus of Wall Street forecasters is still for low rates to persist, Greenspan isn’t alone in warning they will break higher quickly as the era of global central-bank monetary accommodation ends. Deutsche Bank AG’s Binky Chadha says real Treasury yields sit far below where actual growth levels suggest they should be. Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, says it’s only a matter of time before inflationary pressures hit the bond market.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#62 DrBubb

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 02:33 AM

New York Apartment Vacancies Projected to Soar (to 11%)

 

Thousands of new units coming on the market as the rate of job growth already has begun to slow

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Residential construction in the Hudson Yards development in New York City last year; thousands of apartments in new buildings are coming on the market in coming months. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
 Aug. 1, 2017
 

A new report predicts New York City apartment vacancy rates will soar to more than 11% by the end of next year. The scenario, which some local housing analysts rejected, would mean a grim reckoning for landlords.

The forecast, by Ten-X Commercial, an online marketplace for real estate, said rents will slide as thousands of apartments in new buildings come on the market. It noted that the rate of job growth, a driver of the rental market, already has begun to slow.

New York’s vacancy rate, typically in the low single digits, is 3.8%, below the national rate of 4.4% according to Reis Inc., a provider of commercial real-estate data.

“It seems inevitable that you are going to see some pain in the market,” said Peter Muoio, chief economist at Ten-X, who prepared the forecast.

But he said the forecast wasn’t a doomsday scenario because lenders have been much more conservative in their underwriting during the current economic cycle.

The report triggered a pushback from some experts who said it didn’t take into account the complex regional housing market, in which renters throughout the region will be drawn to Manhattan and Brooklyn if rents levels falter.

Nancy Packes, a rental marketing consultant who works closely with apartment developers, said the forecast “didn’t make any sense.”

The report put New York City at the No. 1 position among “top sell markets,” where owners of multifamily properties “might consider selling” because of the prospect of declining owner incomes. Nearly 10,000 new apartments in large buildings—those with at least 40 units—have hit the market since 2016, a total that is due to exceed 40,000 by the end of 2018, according to the report.

Rents, after landlord concessions, already are falling, the report noted, and it predicted that rents will suffer average annual declines of 2.7% through 2020. Owner operating income, or income after subtracting operating expenses, will decline by an average of 4.5% through 2020, the report said.

==

> https://www.wsj.com/...MjAyODUwNTgwWj/


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#63 DrBubb

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 03:06 PM

Baby Boomers Who Won't Sell Dominating Housing Market...
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  • Older Americans own half of houses, squeezing out youngsters
  • Why a 23-year-old is cruising city streets, knocking on doors

Jake Yanoviak is hunting for houses. On a weekday afternoon in North Philadelphia, the 23-year-old painter cruises along on his bike, its black paint obscured under stickers from breweries and rock bands. He turns onto a side street, where he spots a few elderly neighbors, standing on adjoining porches. He parks, leans on one handlebar and makes his pitch.

“Anybody on the block considering selling?” Yanoviak asks gently. “I’m not a developer, I’m not interested in renting to students. I’m just a kid trying to buy a house, fix it up and live in it.”

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Jake Yanoviak / Photographer: Prashant Gopal/Bloomberg

“We’re not going no place,” replies a 70-something woman, relaxing in fuzzy white pig slippers in the row house where she’s lived twice as long as Yanoviak has been alive. “All these houses are taken.”

Like much of his generation, Yanoviak is desperate to get a piece of an increasingly scarce commodity: prime American real estate. Millennials are finding themselves out in the cold because building has slowed, and longer-living baby boomers are staying put, setting up a simmering conflict between the two biggest generations in U.S. history.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#64 DrBubb

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 04:04 PM

... ...
Gold prices were relatively unchanged after U.S. consumers bought fewer pre-existing homes in August, according to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Existing home sales shocked with a drop of 1.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate of 5.35 million units, compared to July’s annualized rate of 5.44 million homes, the association said on Wednesday.

This marked the lowest level in twelve months. Economists were expecting to see a 0.3% advance to 5.46 million units.

 

PHM / Pulte Homes - could topping out - it has been a bellwether for builders - and tends to lead house price ... 12mo :

DLtxYAa.png

. . .

The median price for all existing-home types in August was $253,500, up 5.6% from last year, which marked the 66th straight month of year-over-year gains. At the same time, the association said that total inventory as of the end of August declined 2.1% to 1.88 million existing homes available for sale.

"Market conditions continue to be stressful and challenging for both prospective first-time buyers and homeowners looking to trade up," added Yun.

Many economists warn that rising home prices could potentially pose a serious challenge to future sales.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#65 DrBubb

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:18 PM

Investors Head to Houston to Buy From Panicked Homeowners...

 

Distressed Investors Are Already Buying Houston Homes for 40 Cents on the Dollar

Flooded homes, big money, and hard choices.
 
Bryan Schild drives through the byways of Houston looking for what could be the investment opportunity of a lifetime: homes selling for as little as 40¢ on the dollar. “We Pay Cash For Flooded Homes $$$$$$$$ Don’t fix it, sell it. Quick close,” read the signs piled in the back seat of his Ford pickup.
. . .
Investors such as Schild figure they can buy low, either fix up and flip the houses or rent them out for several years, and unload them later, doubling their money or more.
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Schild making Matlock an offer in his flooded house.
Photographer: Prashant Gopal/Bloomberg

Those kinds of bets have often paid off. Buyers who snapped up co-ops and office towers when New York was near bankruptcy in the 1970s made a killing. More recently, companies including Blackstone Group LP and other marquee names bought foreclosed homes after the 2008 financial crisis and are sitting on billions in potential gains.

The cycle begins with small-time investors such as Schild, who’s bought more than 30 waterlogged houses for an average $175,000 apiece. Then Wall Street swoops in...

===

 

My brother lives in Houston.

Fortunately. his home was not flooded.

But for those who experienced that, they may have to tear out much of the lower floor. and replace walls and floors.

to make the home livable again.  This horrible requirement has been assisted by some (like my brother's church, who does this

work as a charity project.)  But not all will have the assistance or the wherewithal to get this done.
So for some sad homeowners, selling out may be the only thing they can do.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#66 DrBubb

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:33 PM

The Smartest Americans Are Heading West
Three Colorado cities are in the Brain Concentration Index’s top 10.
(Not all are west.  People are also heading for Washington DC, where many govt jobs can be found.)

October 10, 2017

Three cities in Colorado — a state whose fortunes have been tied to the boom and bust of oil, gas and other commodities — are among the top 10 leading destinations for the nation’s best and brightest as old cow and mining towns morph into technology hubs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Another Colorado city is plotting a 21st century revival.

Boulder, the small college town located just north of Colorado’s capital, is ranked No. 1 nationally in the Bloomberg Brain Concentration Index, which tracks business formation as well as employment and education in the sciences, technology, engineering and mathematics. Fort Collins and Denver follow at No. 4 and No. 10, respectively.

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Heralding the progress in the Fort Collins metropolitan area, the website of the Northern Colorado Economic Alliance declares the region as “nerdy and proud of it” with major universities producing “a robust workforce of young, highly-educated individuals.” An estimated 35 percent of the population holds a bachelors degree or higher, according to the alliance.

. . .

The disparity from one end of the state to the other is not unique to Colorado. Muskegon, Michigan, a once bustling manufacturing town, tops the Brain Drain Index, while the state is also home to one of the country’s most educated work forces just 2.5 hours away in Ann Arbor. The city, which comes in at No. 12 on the Brain Concentration Index, is home to the University of Michigan and has an unemployment rate of just 3.9 percent.

==

> https://www.bloomber...place-cow-chips


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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